ALLIED ONLY: aztez (A) vs erstad (J) ...2nd ROUND

[aztez]

China (march 15th and 16th 1942)

Those troops remained 80 miles south of Sian so that is a good breather.

Dave did launch and and ground offensive in the hex 85,43, North of Loyang.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 85,43

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 20385 troops, 138 guns, 60 vehicles, Assault Value = 527

Defending force 64769 troops, 320 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1373

Japanese adjusted assault: 92

Allied adjusted defense: 544

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1278 casualties reported
Squads: 20 destroyed, 76 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 99 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (0 destroyed, 10 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1594 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 65 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 74 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)


Assaulting units:
3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
15th Ind.Mixed Brigade
16th RGC Temp. Division
59th Infantry Brigade
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
5th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion

Defending units:
27th Chinese Corps
61st Chinese Corps
9th Chinese Corps
96th Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
93rd Chinese Corps
47th Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
90th Chinese/C Corps
8th Group Army
Jingcha War Area
1st War Area
4th Chinese Base Force
14th Group Army
36th Group Army
10th Chinese Base Force

.Not bad since the losses were 1:1 and at least combat.txt indicates we destroyed some ground units and disabled some armour.

There were a smaller ground battle too. We cleared the hex at 84,40.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 84,40

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5533 troops, 43 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 384

Defending force 2490 troops, 8 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 88

Allied adjusted assault: 176

Japanese adjusted defense: 55

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
371 casualties reported
Squads: 27 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 24 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 21 (5 destroyed, 16 disabled)
Units retreated 2


Allied ground losses:
67 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
19th Chinese Corps
42nd Chinese Corps
2nd War Area

Defending units:
26th Recon Regiment
5th NCPC Infantry Brigade

That is good and those ground troops are now short on supply and outside any regular supply lanes.

We also captured back the base at Tienshui.

Chinese units also tried to capture the base at Hami. The initial counterstrike was not succesfull though.

AVG got much needed rest and my reserves are moving towards Sian steadily.

The main bombing campaign here has shifted towards Liuchow / Changhsa area. I don't know whether this is any indication on what's to come next.

[aztez]

Finally got the WITP Tracker working on this vista laptop.

After quick check noticed few things. The FOW seems to be quite a big thing in the AE and I think Tracker is gathering data accurately.

I will post few screenies with comments included.

It seems quite obvious that by using Tracker you get much better intel. Ie. BB Huyaga doesn't show up as sunk with this tool. However the game intel screen still has it as "confirmed sunk".

Few other diffrences that I noted with quick glimpse.

Obviously Dave has had better and more accurate information with this tool. I guess it is time to catch up.

[aztez]

...and the aircraft lost so far according to WITP Tracker.

[Q-Ball]

I think it's helpful to count up VPs. The only completely accurate number is VPs; base VPs are highly accurate, and probably ground losses. That leaves planes and ships. I am 3 weeks in, and I have a 580 VP points that I don't have confirmed anything for; it's probably ships that sank at Pearl Harbor.

[aztez]

Q-Ball: That is the way I have been doing it so far. The good old calculator gives you "intel".
 
I really hope this tool does not lift the FOW curtain completely but to me it seems to do so.
 
I like the new FOW system but maybe this tool kind of goes around it to the actual data.
 
Those losses indicated by tracker maybe very accurate indeed.
 
I cannot confirm it since propably going to get the turn tomorrow but last turn game showed +300 zero's downed. As I mentioned in the public forum these losses have been going up and down.
 
The ship losses diffrenciate even more Game vs Tracker. So, I don't know but kind of feel the FOW might have been lifted.

[Q-Ball]

I don't think Tracker is much more accurate. Hard to say. I love all the FOW though, you really just don't know.......just like RL.

Air losses are tough to track.

[seydlitz_slith]

ORIGINAL: Astarix

Aztez,

I think Seydlitz summarized the situation in China pretty well.  Ever since Dave started fighting you in terrain favorable for the defense his casualties have increased dramatically.  Don't be too quick to minimize the effect of disruptions either.  Some of this is FOW, as in some of these disruptions are previously/partially disrupted squads taking additional casualties.  However, keep in mind that highly disrupted units take a long time to recover, some of these disruptions eventually work out to destroyed squads or represent partially destroyed squads.  Their morale sinks and if they are short on supplies, they start to lose troops to non battlefield effects.  Think of it as disease, desertion, etc. 

As Seydlitz pointed out he is using some very poorly trained and equipped puppet forces, which, by now, have to have taken casualties every bit as staggering as some of the losses you have incurred.  More impoprtantly these puppet units have a very low replacement rate and will take a very long time to recover, if they ever do.  If you are careful and manage your defenses well, when he comes back he is going to have a very bad time digging you out.

Also, don't be too quick to discount the effects of "guerilla" tactics with some of your weaker corps.  Remember that he still has to respond to these guys, and even if he destroys them, the effort of chasing these guys around and killing them takes troops away from the main attack.  Heck, even some of your badly damaged corps that are almost completely combat ineffective can be split into 3 units and used to block supply lines.  He simply cannot afford to let you cut his supplies.  Even if he sees these throwaways coming he still has to respond to them.  Given the level of forces he is committing to trying to dig you out of Northern China means that he doesn't have a lot of reserves so he will likely need to use frontline troops to stop these tactics.

I don't know if you've looked at the garrison requirements, but if you add them up, there is a pretty large AV requirement to garrison everything worth garrisoning for the Japanese, even if he abandons the places that dont hold resources or industry. 

Lastly, remember that Heavy Industry does not produce supply anymore, just LI and Refineries.  So if he captures all your oil/fuel centers its not going to collapse your supply production.  Light Industry does not have a fuel requirement to produce supply.

Something I want to add to Seydlitz's sub tactics.  Remember that you can use your subs to lay offensive minefields as well.  While I would select where to place these with extreme caution, you never know when a well placed Minefield might ding a high value target. 

Jason

While I agree with most of your points, I do want to point out a couple of things....
HI does produce supply also. More importantly, it produces HI points that are needed for arms and vehicle production. With no HI points, those destroyed units that return and squads that were lost will not be replaced because there will be no arms points to use.

An interesting counter point may be this....if the entire allied side uses HI jointly from the master pool, then you might be correct and this might not matter. I certainly hope that this is not the case because that would be too artificial.

Regarding submarine minefields, yes you can load mines. However, you have very few mines and when you do use what you have offensively, the small field will decay pretty fast since you do not have an ACM to tend it.

Your ideas about splitting the extremely weak units up into components has good merit. If you can spread them out you can cut his supplies at least until he contacts the unit. Definitely worth looking at.

[Astarix]

Seydlitz,

I stand corrected, HI does produce 2 supply points per day at the cost of 20 resource and 2 fuel points. While this it not insignificant, the majority of Chinese HI centers starts the game damaged. The main source of supply for the Chinese is LI which produces 1 supply point for 15 resources and does not require fuel. Over time, if the Chinese are able to repair their inactive HI centers this can become a very appreciable source of supply. The major point I was trying to stress, is that for the Chinese at least, LI is a much more important source of supply. Particularly in the early stages of the war. Long term the lack of fuel does become an issue for the Chinese, so Sian and Lanchow are worth fighting for as long as it doesn't cost the Chinese the rest of China.

As to mine fields laid by subs, I do agree. Like I said, caution is the word of the day. I just wanted to remind Aztez of this tactic. Used in a careful and timely manner it can be an incredibly rude surprise. Mines are relatively cheap and though there are a limited supply of them and their effectiveness can be pretty random, I've seen very few AAR's where players routinely sweep their own harbors in a defensive manner until after something went boom. Even then its usually only the harbor that had an explosion that gets any kind of sweeping. Mines are just as likely to hit a CV as they are an xAKL. More importantly, a single mine can sink even a BB or CV as effectively as an xAKL. In my game against the AI, I nailed Yamashiro with a minefield I laid in Singapore after the AI sent it to refuel.

Allied production does not behave the same way that Japanese production does, in as far as I am able to discern. Chinese replacements seem to have a fixed value, just as does the rest of the allied replacement system.

Aztez,

I just read your comments about WitpTracker. I'm thinking that you may be putting too much faith in its ability to get around the FoW. Check your ops report religiously, I've noticed the same CL get confirmed, not confirmed, reconfirmed, unconfirmed and finally reconfirmed. When in fact I know it was sunk. Each time it showed up or didn't show up on the report in coincidence with the Ops report. I suspect that it probably IS reporting what is 100% confirmed. IE if a ship shows up on WitpTracker, its probably safe to assume the ship is sunk, but that the absence of an item on WitpTracker does not confirm that it isn't sunk.

Also, I think you are probably doing better than it feels, especially given some of the things that have occurred in the game, like the loss of 2 CV's early. I would point out that its Mid March and he still has to take Palambang and Java, granted he can apply a lot more firepower than you can to both of these places, but he still has to use some Caution. There will come a point where the Dutch air units will just become so many targets, remember, once you reach that point, you can withdraw these units and they will reappear in Sydney in 60 days if Tilitjap is captured, so once you feel that further resistance in the air is futile, consider this. The Dutch get some B25's and P40's that can be useful in Oz.

Overall though, I think you are doing a remarkable job. Keep up the good work.

Jason

[Swenslim]

Is operation losses includes airplanes that was damaged during battle (not shown as air combat lose) but didnt managed to get to airbase ?

[Graymane]

Looking at your last strategic map, I'm wondering what you have in the P.H. areas for troops? Without neutralizing P.H. or at least some islands close to it, the Japanese look dangerously overextended. When the allies are ready to go over on the attack, they can start hitting the N.G. and Noumea with bombers and then attack out of Hawaii directly to the Marshalls. If that happens, you've created a massive POW camp in the south pacific. That would be the most worrying thing to me as a japanese player and I'd be planning an attack toward Hawaii rather than Oz.

[jrlans]

Hey guys been lurking awhile and i have to say some of the advice i have seen is stelar. Im amazed as how agressive Dave has managed to be, I realy think he is pushing the edge of what an excelent Japanese player can do in AE

[PresterJohn001]

Great AAR, thanks for posting. Not being of great witp experience all i can advise is that in games with FOW it
always looks worse than it is! You can't see your opponents problems but you can see all of yours

[aztez]

Yesterday was such an busy day that didn't have time to get the turn done.

I will also be heading out tomorrow morning to visit Estonia with work colleagues. So, the next turn update will be posted sometime in sunday. (depending on the hangover status)

Q-Ball: Hmmm, maybe. Eventhough I compared to the ship losses to the VP given and I think it is quite accurate indeed.

I haven't tried the ship by ship calculation though. Definately only BB Ise sunk though and that is what tracker is reporting.

Air losses are definately pretty much impossible to keep up with.

seydlitz: I tried to check manual but found nothing on the combined HI pools. So, this remains a mystery to me. To be honest the whole production system is still somewhat overwhelming!

I would assume though that it is not combined so chinese will take an hit if fuel is lost.

I have always used the submarines in wolfacks when set on minelaying missions. Otherwise too few mines are layed out and they seem detoriate fast in AE.

Personally I think that the decay of mines should slowed down a bit.

Astarix: Yeah. I read "war room" threads the LI industry is the most significant factor when chinese supply is concerned. There really isn't much of in china.

I'am still thinking whether to try and repair the damaged LI at Chungking. At the moment I'am decieding againts it due to the supply needed elsewhere factor.

I can confirm that I'am that type of player who does neglect the minesweeping operations in "rear" bases, Actually payed high price with this againts ctangus. (this was an old witp PBEM) Nowdays I'am trying to do better job in this area.

You mined Singapore! Hmmm, devious and excellent idea. I think you propably should just mine big harbours such as Singapore, Truk... I will give this a whirl when I get my submarines gathered.

I do not know one way or the another how accurate the tracker actually is. Just seems that it might be much more accurate than the original AE intel screen though.

Thanks. Maybe I'am a bit harsh on myself when estimating how things have played out. Good to hear that I might be under estamating the current situation since I would hate if it is other way around. Palempang will fall next turn and the invasion of Java might be an swift affair.

I will definately disband/withdraw ABDA airunits when they become depleted. I might even change their HQ's than since PP amount paid is low. Those P40E's are useful fighters allthough they cannot complete vs zeros.

A said thank you for the kind words.

Swenslim: Sorry, I didn't quite get the question. I think the operational losses reflect all kind of damaged aircraft whether this has happened in training/combat or other circumstances.

Graymane: I have significant numbers of troops in the following areas/bases. There are more units moving into their areas.

- Hawaji
- Christimas Island (building up Fanning island as we speak)
- Pago Pago
- Fiji's

...and Tahiti is building up too and becoming an supply hub.

Dave propably is overstreched but as long as he keep his carriers in the area he is ok. The whole KB vs 3 US carriers is not even match. I could even the odds with RN carriers though. There are soon 3 carriers + CVL Hermes in full readiness. This is yet to be decieded.

I might be able to some short ranged island hopping though when I have gathered strong enough lba cover in area. There are significant numbers of fighters and bombers already in play but the numbers are still a bit short on what I want.

I will most definately provide as much lba support as possible when the offensives begun. I think it is actually the key to gain any ground without risking too much,

jrlans: Nice to see you! I could not agree more. Diffrent views, excellent ideas well that is what these friendly forums are about. I have adopted a lot of stuff. You cannot take it all since after all we all have personal styles. However, at least my eyes have opened into new options/fresh ideas.

You really cannot thank everyone enough taking time to express their thoughts/tricks and strategies.

Dave is very aggressive. If you look at his naval losses you can see that aggressive gaming style doens't not automatically mean high up numbers on ships lost.

How far is he able to push? Well, I really don't know though I would estimate he needs to start building up his defenses soon too This will take time to get done in AE.

Another thing that might slow him down is the fact that within next couple of weeks the unloading bonus is gone. He stuck with the normal unloading rates.

PresterJohn: Thank you. Welcome to thread and matrix forums. I can say that this is an very helpful place to be.

Well said about the FOW. It is annoying and at the same rewarding. This was truly an thing that the old witp would have needed too.

[aztez]

Guinea/Solomons (march 17th and 18th 1942)

Lets take a look into this area.

In march 17th japanese started their landings at Port Moresby. I did spot the invasion TF's couple of days earlier.

The base itself will fall propably next turn since I haven't reinforced it nor do I have adequate supply levels to defend it.

Dave has bombed this base daily after he sunk the ANZAC surface TF and captured Rabaul.

I think I made the correct decision to abandon it since with only 3 operational US carriers this was not worth the risk nor loss of manpower.

As you can see he captured most the areas here. I think his forces are a little scattered though.

I would also make an well educated guess that significant part of his carrier forces is lurking somewhere. He simply would not go into such island hopping had he not covered these troops.

Other things worth of mentioning is that allied intel reported that forts/airfields are going up in Truk and Rabaul.

The one thing I would love to know is what kind of forces he has in New Caledonia. Unfortunately no way to get good enough intel.

[aztez]

Sumatra (march 17th and 18th 1942)

A couple of developments here that took place.

There seems to be major invasion ongoing at Palempang. At least 25-40 ships seem to be involved.

I don't have the ABDA surface fleet at my disposal due to the complete air superiority possessed by the japan.

The dutch troops did however hit few ships offshore at Palempang.

xAKL Hakozake Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
SC Ch 4, Shell hits 1, on fire
xAKL Nissyo Maru, Shell hits 1
xAKL Miiko Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
xAKL Heiyo Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
xAKL Hinko Maru, Shell hits 1

These hits were made without any solid coastal guns so if it's not FOW than we did more than ok here taking the situation into considreration.

I do expect the base to fall within next turn though. Hopefully some industry will be destroyed before this.

A further up the north though dutch forces did not put up an fight that I had expected.

Few days earlier enemy forces had landed near Medan and was somewhat disappointed to see Medan fall with 1st assault.

I had these guys well rested and supported. I think that the daily lba raids played some factor here.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Medan (46,76)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 7315 troops, 50 guns, 102 vehicles, Assault Value = 248

Defending force 6230 troops, 33 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 173

Japanese adjusted assault: 197

Allied adjusted defense: 44

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Medan !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
308 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 14 (0 destroyed, 14 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
3414 casualties reported
Squads: 90 destroyed, 61 disabled
Non Combat: 129 destroyed, 76 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 9 (9 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 10
Units destroyed 1


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st Tank Regiment
42nd Infantry Regiment
114th Infantry Regiment

Defending units:
Korps Marechausee Battalion
2nd Garrison Battalion
Medan Coastal Gun Battalion
Van Aaran Garrison Battalion
Medan Garrison Battalion
Pakanbaroe Det.
Sabang Garrison Battalion
Tapanoeli Gsn Battalion
Langsa Base Force
Sabang Base Force
Medan Base Force

As you can see I got only penalty for experience rating. Oh, well this didn't work out as planned for sure.

[loricas]

ORIGINAL: aztez

Sumatra (march 17th and 18th 1942)

The dutch troops did however hit few ships offshore at Palempang.

xAKL Hakozake Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
SC Ch 4, Shell hits 1, on fire
xAKL Nissyo Maru, Shell hits 1
xAKL Miiko Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
xAKL Heiyo Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
xAKL Hinko Maru, Shell hits 1

These hits were made without any solid coastal guns so if it's not FOW than we did more than ok here taking the situation into considreration.

if i remember well same of the base around palembang have Costal guns (the base north of Benkoelen for sure) so maybe not only fow

[cfulbright]

I have always used the submarines in wolfacks when set on minelaying missions. Otherwise too few mines are layed out and they seem detoriate fast in AE.

Aztez, did you ever decide whether wolfpack sub patrols were effective? They didn't seem to work at all in old WITP, so I'm curious if they work in AE.

[aztez]

loricas: I agree that those ship hits were not completely FOW. An rough estimate is that maybe 2 of those AKL's were severely hit.

cfulbright: Unfortunately those wolfpacks I tried resulted into similar conclusion what you too made from witp.

They didn't seem effective. I think it is better to lone submarines in an hex. You can have multiple vessels just split them up into separate TF's.

I would only use several subs in an single TF when doing sub minelaying missions. Actually, I think it is the only way to do those operations.

Just out of curiosity has your game already started?

Now I'am off to bed. I have 5am bus to Helsinki where we will spent a day. At the evening we will board the cruise line ship and sail to Tallinna (Estonia). So, you guys have an good weekend.

We will see on sunday when warfare will continue.

[cfulbright]

Aztez,

I did finally start my game, playing against Japanese AI, and No Historical Turn/No Surprise. Japanese sat off PH and bombed the port for three days, and on the fourth day the BB's from Pearl that had fled to Hilo came back, surprised the Kido Butai, and sank four of the six CV's. Since then I've had my two CV's by Wake chasing it, and have sunk another as of Dec. 17. Trying to get that last one, but the Zeros are tough, even though all the DB's and TB's seem to be dead.

[loricas]

wolfpack work VERY well...but put with reaction 1 or they retourn to base after every attack and be sure of agressivity of leader...and no more than six sub in TF...i see even six attach against the same TF