Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

I'm sure he's using everything he can. Whatever he's using, though, the impact is devastating turn after turn after turn.

[Canoerebel]

3/17/42 and 3/18/42

China: The effective Jap artillery bombardments at Changsha and Chengtow mentioned above are just routine daily events in AE. Both those cities continue to hold solid, thank goodness. The Japs did take Yenan in northern China, however, after a 5:1 attack on the 17th. This inflicted 1,024 to 8,825 casualties. I don't have any qualms with the loss of this city - the Japs outnumbered the isolated Chinese garrison, which was also low on supplies. The losses seem disproportionate, as usual (remember in real war where the attackers usually take higher casualties?) and my units retreated cross-country eastward rather than along the road leading to Sian. So now I have an out-of-supply stack of Chinese units that are in no-man's land. The war in China in AE is vexxing, but it's also challenging. I still think the Allies have a chance, so I'm more intrigued by the challenge than ticked off at this point.

Early-War in China Strategy: Early in the game I decided to pull back all the forward, isolated Chinese units that begin the game in places the Chinese can't hold. The idea was to get my units back to major bases (like Changsha) with forts. I succeeded in extracting every advanced unit (none were cut off and destroyed). Based upon what I've seen of AE in China thus far, this was a good strategy. However, an alternate strategy would be to leave some of those units in positions to interdict Jap supply lines. I wonder if other players are trying that option with success?

SoPac: All Allied carriers have now arrived at Auckland. To my pleasant surprise, they all drew aircraft upgrades, so no more Buffaloes or biplane Helldivers. Some fighter squadrons are now F4-F and every divebomber is an SBD-3. The Allied CV force is now in place. The KB remains in the DEI. I do NOT think Miller knows the whereabouts of the Allied CVs. Rather than steaming north in hopes of finding some Jap merchant or combat ships, I prefer to hide the carriers so that Miller has to remain concerned about where they might show up.

Subwarfare: ASW got I-17 near Darwin. RO64 took out an AK near Rockhampton and I-168 missed a TK near Auckland. An Allied sub finally scored! S-37 took out an AK near Tawi Tawi. I think this is the third successful Allied sub attack to this point. That's awfully low.

Supplies: I looked all over the map to find some way to allocate supply priority, but couldn't find a thing. Time to read the manual....

[Canoerebel]

Jap subs in CenPac and SoPac (and a complete absence of subs in the Indian Ocean and Aleutians), and the recent invasion of the Ellice Islands are further evidence that the Japs are "looking this way." Hence the positioning of the Allied carriers at Auckland and the "feverish" efforts to reinforce Noumea, Suva, and Pago Pago.

The KB remains in the Java Sea supporting landings on Borneo and expected invasions of Java. The Allies are still drawing dividends from the effort to draw full Jap attention to the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

3/19/42 to 3/22/42

The Allies have muttered many 'Yipes!" in the game to date - Jap strength of artillery, the complexity of supply and logistics, the Allied debacle in China. Now, a new "Yipes" that has been steadily growing and reached a crescendo on March 22 - Yipes, Jap subs!

Subwarfare: Jap subs continue to rack up scores all over the place - I-173 puts a TT into CL Leander at Noumea (and is finished off by ASW); I-156 gets an AVP near Darwin; I-5 misses CA Houston at Noumea and then puts two TTs into BC Repulse (31/57/20); I-21 misses a DMS at Pago Pago and then gets an AK and puts 2 TT into BB Warspite (16/31/4). That was two RN battleships in one day! In return, Argonaut got an AK near Wake Island, the fourth successful Allied sub attack in the game compared to the uber-Jap-sub results. Warspite and Repulse should be fine, but I wonder what kind of deductions about Allied naval dispositions that Miller has drawn?

Invasion of Java: Here come the Japs! Major landings at Batavia and Semerang. The landings are covered by at least five BBs and the KB. Dutch PT boats sortied but were ineffective. The Batavia force includes 21st Division, Imperial Guards, and six regiments. That's alot of firepower! Allied AV at Batavia is 420, at Soerabaja is 320, and at Malang is 280. Each of these bases has three forts. The Japs will roll up Java fairly quickly, but at some cost -commitment of plenty of troops and naval assets.

Sumatra: The Japs landed at Medan. This isolated a remnant Brit BF east of the city, but I should be able to extract it using transport aircraft in Sabang.

Borneo: The Japs landed at Bandjermasin on the 19th but haven't been able to take it yet.

Pacific: The Japs grabbed the three islands in the Ellice Group (Vaitupu, Nukufetau, and Funafuti) on the 19th. As noted in the previous post, All U.S. carriers upgraded aircraft. The American and RN carriers have already repaired all minor damage and are set at 0 0 0 0 (except Yorktown which has one major engine point). Combat engineers will arrive at Noumea tomorrow; another infantry regiment will arrive at Suva within three days, bringing the AV there to more than 400. An Aussie brigade prepping for Luganville is aboard transports bound from Port Kempla to Noumea. If Luganville is very lightly held, I may go for it.

China: Status quo along the MLR at the moment.

[Chickenboy]

Canorebel,

You haven't mentioned Burma in a while. Looking at your map, it looks as though there hasn't been much movement of your forces from there yet. Do you interpret the movement of Malaysia assault forces to Java as being a Burmese respite? Are you planning on doing anything with the additional time?

[Canoerebel]

3/23/42 and 3/24/42

Java: The Japanese made quick work of Batavia - one shock attack at 5:1 overcame three forts and 400 AV. That frees up two divisions and six regiments to join another division (4th) that landed at Semerang. So, Soerabaja and Malang should likewise fall quickly.

RN Battleship Watch: Fld damage for both Repulse and Warspite dropped slightly. Given a week or so, both BBs should be ready to make for larger ports.

Subs: I-19 got an AK and damaged a TK at Pago Pago.

DEI: Bandjermasin falls.

SoPac: Current garrison AVs at key bases: Noumea (750), Suva (321), Pago Pago (314).

Chickenboy: Miller hasn't been able to thrust past Pegu and the Allies still hold Rangoon. I'm not bringing forward anything since the supply situation in Burma will be untenable once Rangoon falls. The Allies prefer to fight in India.

[Canoerebel]

Origin of an idea....

Event: Jap subs have recently engaged elements of Force Z at Noumea with BC Repulse taking two TT.

Impact: Since Miller had most recently seen Force Z and the Allied carriers in the DEI, he, being a clever opponent, will correctly deduce that where Force Z is there also the Allied carriers will be.

Secondary Impact: With Force Z's cover blown, I've augmented the TF with CAs and DDs and sent them hunting in the Ellice Islands, recently occupied by the Japanese.

Opportunity: Miller assigned the KB to the DEI to cover operations there. Those operations are now winding down and he should be more willing to pull the KB out now that he suspects the Allied carriers have long since vacated the area. I believe Miller's next objective lies in CenPac and/or SoPac. He'll probably send the KB this way, either to guard against the Allied carriers or to actively seek and destroy them. So...why not pull the carriers out and send them on a raid against resources/industry/oil in the DEI?

Question: What I don't know is how effective a carrier strike will be against oil/refinery/resources. (Dear reader, please don't chime in; I think I'd rather find out for myself).

Risk: This operation will leave CenPac and SoPac unguarded, but that's not as big a concern now that Noumea, Suva, and Pago Pago have strong garrisons.

Name: I dub thee Operation Antietam. I'll begin planning now, looking at fuel and other considerations. It will take a week or so for the carriers to make Perth, the jumping off point.

Security: Please don't discuss such a mission in a general way in your AAR, dear reader!

[Canoerebel]

3/25/42 and 3/26/42

Surface Combat: Playing a hunch, I had sent the modified Force Z combat TF form Noumea to Viatupu (Ellice Islands) to see what might be there - I was pretty sure the base would be vacant, but figured there was a small chance of picking off some merchant shipping or small combat ships while ensuring that the Japs stood up and took notice that a major Allied combat TF was in the area. To my surprise (and Miller's too), Force Z ran into a stout Japanese cruiser force (see illustration below). I outgunned the Japs and entered the fray with high hopes, but they fizzled. Both sides lost a DD; several Allied CAs suffered light to moderate damage. A few Japs DDs were damaged and I think a few CAs suffered light damage. At least, though, Miller's ears will have perked up. I'll guar-an-tee that he's contemplating the KB loose in SoPac amongst Allied combat ships. An Allied CA and DD are making for Christmas Island at 26 knots (and from there will spend time in a shipyard on the West Coast); another is making for Pago Pago, which is dangerous waters.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Vaitupu at 138,145, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Aoba, Shell hits 3
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 2
CA Furutaka
CA Kako, Shell hits 2, on fire
CL Abukuma, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Shinonome
DD Usugumo, Shell hits 1
DD Shirakumo, Shell hits 1
DD Isonami
DD Shirayuki
DD Hatsuyuki
DD Murakumo, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Uranami

Allied Ships
BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 1
CA Louisville
CA Pensacola
CA Australia, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Canberra, Shell hits 4, heavy fires
CL Achilles
CL Tromp, Shell hits 3
CL Perth, Shell hits 2, on fire
CL Mauritius, Shell hits 1
DD Bulmer, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Paul Jones
DD Voyager
DD Scout, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD La Triomphant, Shell hits 1

Jap Uber Subs: Jap subs are eating me alive. I don't know what to do about it. I'm using ASW and aircraft are flying ASW patrols, but subs are claiming victims left and right. On the 26th alone, I-8 at Pago Pago put under two 31-point tankers (ouch!) and a DD. I-4 at Palmyra got a PC. ASW engaged both subs plus RO-66 at Noumea and I-156 near Darwin. I'm going to have to re-think supply and fuel runs; I have some ideas, but dadgum the Jap subs!

KB: No sign of it after weeks in the DEI. I feel pretty sure Miller will refuel and then send them to SoPac. If he surprises me with a cruise off Australia's west coast....

Allied Carriers: Formed up into six TFs and left Auckland bound for Perth. Per my previous post, these guys are heading to the DEI as part of Operation Antietam. Another RN CV is about to arrive at Colombo and she'll rendezvous to join in Antietam. That'll give the Allies seven fleet carriers (albeit the RN carriers aren't carrying the best of aircraft) plus CVL Hermes. If I carry through with this operation, another benefit is that afterwards Miller won't be sure exactly where the carriers are heading next. He'll probably assume that the American carriers will head back to Australia, but he'll have to "assume" that the RN carriers might return to India. That may keep him a bit more honest.

SoPac: The Japs are landing at Gili Gili. Three Allied APs carrying an Aussie brigade are taking station just north of Noumea, awaiting my decision to try a shoestring invasion of Luganville. If I get cold feet, I'll use that brigade to garrison either Koumac or Espiritu Santo.

Final Word: What's with the Jap uber subs???????

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Final Word: What's with the Jap uber subs???????

You just wait until some JFB gets as far as 1943 in a pbem. In the Guad scenario I played it was like the flicking of a switch when 1943 rolled over - from "nuisance" to "unstoppable death machines". There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth.

I routinely get 3-6 "Hit but no explosion" results every single day in the pbem I'm playing. If they were 3-6 kills then then the IJ merchant marine really isn't going to last long.

Then things will change, if they've not done so before. [;)]

I think there needs to be an engagement test for subs, so when a sub attacks it has to pass some sort of test to get into a firing position - based on the speed of the submarine and the speed of the target, plus plenty of luck.


As for your predicament. When you're ASW ratings go up, you can start to get kills. Again I'm going by the Guad scenario but DDs with ASW 6 are pretty standard in late 1942 and they will get kills. Sub chasers have ASW 6 as well and seem pretty effective. Aggressive ASW patrols in danger areas covered by ASW aircraft is the way to go. I fear that at this stage of the war though, your escorts simply aren't up to the job and you'll have to suck it up until those upgrades come.

[Streptokok]

Newbish remark:
In my expirience ([:D]) vs. AI ship ASW rating has zero effect on sub DETECTION. And if its not detected it wont be attacked.
I had couple ASW tfs in front of Japan (they included SC's with ASW rating 8) in hope they will hunt down subs lurking close to the ports. They didnt attack anything until i have set few squadrons on ASW search (couple of recon and bomber squads). Then things changed. Once detected subs get slapped much more. They dont make enemy subs less effective but once you get hits on couple of subs around ports he might consider moving them further away from your ports wich should tone down your loses...

[Canoerebel]

3/27/42 and 3/28/42

Two days passed without a successful attack by a Jap submarine! This is big news. Allied ASW attacked I-159 near Darwin (little if any damage) and I-171 at Pago Pago (significant damage if reports are accurate).

Operation Antietam: Allied carriers departed Auckland on the way to Perth, staging ground for the strike against the DEI. That's a long way to travel and fuel supplies are low, so I'll continually reevaluate the worthiness of this operation over the next week or longer; whether I go through with it remains to be seen.

SoPac: I've decided against invading Luganville. The Aussie brigade will instead garrison Koumac. Noumea's AV is at 760; Suva is at 400 with an infantry regiment unloading; Pago Pago remains at 315 with an infantry regiment on the way. All three bases have aviation support in excess of 100.

DEI: The Japs are moving out of Batavia and closing on Soerabaja. On the island of Sumatra, Medan finally fell.

Burma: A Jap division and another regiment joined three regiments at Pegu and tried a deliberate attack on the 27th. This came off at 1:2, dropped forts to 2, and cost the Japs 1728 to 916. I bet Miller tries a shock attack in a few days and I think it will succeed.

China: The lone Chinese unit garrisoning Kanhsien was booted out of the hex and will retreat to the MLR. Other than bombardments and bombing - mainly Changsha and Chengtow - no Jap assaults along the MLR over the past week or ten days.

[rattovolante]

about Antietam - I'm curious, why the name? It wasn't exactly a successful battle for either side.

[Canoerebel]

Civil War buff.

Each game I try to come up with a theme to name operations.

The first time it was botanical names for American trees (Carya tomentosa, for intance). The second game it was atmospheric and space phenomena and bodies (Red Planet, Shooting Star, etc.)

This game it will be Civil War battles.

[british exil]

I hope it doesn't bring bad luck naming an operation after a unsuccessful battle, where large numbers of men were killed.

But still wish you luck in bringing the war to the japs.

[Canoerebel]

Naw, I'll probably select only battles won by the South or in which the South performed well. That's gotta be good luck even if we are playing a game dominated by the Yankee Navy.

[rattovolante]

well in the actual battle - indeed

in the causes behind the battle, though... having to fight an almost desperate battle just to save your main army from encirclement because the enemy caught you unprepared, dispersed over a large area and with part of the army busy foraging and another part sieging an enemy fort... and on top of that the enemy also captured your full plans... er...

I asked because WitP mostly models the strategic part of the game, i.e., the part where the confederate army performed really bad at Antietam. I wondered if it was self-ironic

[Canoerebel]

Hey, the Rebs CAPTURED the entired Union garrison in said fort (Harper's Ferry) - some 20,000 prisoners of war. Overall I think the Confederates performed pretty well on all levels of the battle, considering their strategic objectives (putting the fear in the enemy's heart and trying to draw Marylanders into the Southern army). It was a nightmarish battle, but perhaps my favorite of the Civil War.

P.S. After a lifetime of reading about Antietam, I finally had a chance to visit in 2003. We approached from Shepardstown, WV. It was amazingly surreal - one second you're driving through rural Maryland countryside, the next your in the middle of the battlefield. Because there's essentially no development, and because the visitor's center is unobtrusive, the first thing I noticed was the Dunkard Church and Sunken Road. It was like wandering right into the pages of a history book.

[Q-Ball]

I stayed on the battlefield at an old farmhouse that's now a bed and breakfast. I can't remember the name of it, but I'm sure you can google it. Awesome way to tour the battlefield. That was about 1998 or so, in my re-enactor days.

[Canoerebel]

a3/29/42 to 4/1/42
 
Subs:  After three wonderful days without a single successful sub attack, the Japs are back at it.  I-10 got an AK and a PC at Palmyra and I-165 got an AVP north of Perth.  ASW reported badly damaging or sinking I-170 at Noumea.  So, you inquire politely, what are the Allied subs doing to even the score?  Nothin'.

DEI:  The Japs are rolling up Java from west to east.  Soerabaja should pose a momentary roadblock, but Miller has already voiced email comments acknowledging that he committed more than he needed here.  The KB remains just north of Java and committed two overwhelming strikes against Makassar's airfield.  Why, I don't know.  Just a total waste of ordinance.  A Dutch bomber accidently succeeded in damaging a Jap AK...the pilot then expired from shock.

KB:  Do you ever "feel something in your bones" and just know it will happen?  That's how I feel about the KB.  Miller reacted to previous Allied operations there by committing the KB wholesale.  His worst fears - that of a massed Allied ground and naval commitment to Java - proved empty, while Allied combat ships and transports are waltzing about SoPac in flaunting fashion.  I just KNOW Miller wants to get the KB refueled and down to SoPac. 

Allied Carriers:  And into the ensuing void in the DEI will steam the Allied carriers - five American CVs, two RN CVs (one on the way from Colombo), and CVL Hermes. The plan is to position the carriers just south of Java and conduct city (IE, strategic) strikes over several turns and then flee.  This plan won't work if the Japs catch wind of the carries while they make their way from Auckland; and should Miller surprise me by committing the KB to a cruise down Perth way...

Force Z:  The ships damaged during the recent Ellice Islands Battle are dispersing to various shipyards from Sydney to San Diego.  The remainder of Force Z will be stationed at Auckland, augmented by CA Vincennes and some DDs newly arrived.

China:  A Jap deliberate attack at Chenghow came off at 1:2, didn't touch four forts, and cost the Japs 4,598 to 3,044.  This is an absolutley critical part of the Chinese MLR.  Right now the Japs are probing just there and at Changsha.  Should either crack it would be devastating.

Burma:  After months of stalemate, the Japs finally took Pegu.  The silly defenders retreated into vacant Rangoon rather than back to Mandalay.  Now it becomes a race to extract them via the alternate route.

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Burma:  After months of stalemate, the Japs finally took Pegu.  The silly defenders retreated into vacant Rangoon rather than back to Mandalay.  Now it becomes a race to extract them via the alternate route.

Ouch. Thats the important bit of Burma gone, then.

Are you planning to hole up in Schwebo or Mandalay or just pull back to the likes of Imphal at this point?