Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

I'll make a stand at Schwebo, but if Miller brings enough he can steamroll over the position; or he can come around from the right flank.  Eventually I'll pull my troops back to the Imphal line.  I've been working on postions since December 7, but my "drop dead line" will be Chittagong, Dacca and vicinity.  Beyond that line the Allies will not reatreat unless things go totally wrong.
 
P.S.  As best I can tell, Burma cannot be held by the Allies in AE.  In WitP, you could make a pretty firm stand behind the river at Mandalay.  But in AE the troops are poor and the supply situation is atrocious.  Besides, I don't need Burma. 

[Chickenboy]

Canorebel,

Since your carriers are making the way round Perth and considering movement north for interdicting DEI ship traffic, it seems like a wonderful opportunity for when KB goes back toward Cent Pac.

Since he has voluntarily indicated that he overcommitted to Java, doesn't that mean that he is anxious to use those forces elsewhere? Will he now be bringing in transport TFs to evacuate the body of superfluous troops now there? If you had a suspicion that he was loading a couple IJA divisions on now underprotected transport TFs, would you act to intercept these TFs in or around Java?

For USN submariners, there was an ongoing debate about which ships they liked targetting the most. Some preferred tankers / oilers-big bang, lots of fire, burned to the waterline and all that. Others preferred sinking laden transport ships with combat troops. I must confess to being partial to the latter. To my sometimes detriment, I will go out of my way to drown IJN troopships at significant hazard.

How about you?

[Canoerebel]

Sure, I'd love to tear into a vulnerable troop convoy.  In general, I'd rank carrier strike targets in this order:  carriers, combat ships, loaded troop transports, cargo/tankers, strategic boming, small stuff.

If it looks like troop transports are in the area, I would certainly evaluate a potential strike.

The one thing that a strategic strike has going for it is that the target is static.  Oil refineries, resources, etc. aren't going anywhere.

A successful strike should force Miller to allow for such a strike whenever he isn't certain where the Allied carriers are located.  He's not going to station the KB there on a permanent basis, but he would make sure he had enough aviation support and aircraft to deter future strikes.  I *think* that's worth the price I'll pay - he'll know the location of the Allied carriers and have freedom to move in the Pacific for weeks.

From WitP, I know that Miller is obsessive about Java.  An effective strike there would really rattle him, me thinks.

[pat.casey]

ORIGINAL: Mynok


Looks like all the units are bombarding, not just the artillery.

Sort of moot though really; net effect is the same that the IJN player can "tax" the Chinese stack about 500 casualties/day at minimal risk and cost (just supplies really).

My experience (vs the AI) with combat in China is that Chinese units have glass jaws. They take huge casualties, win or lose. Just being in contact with the enemy (bombardment) burns them out in a matter of weeks.

Net effect is I can hold my own against the AI, largely because the AI is very, very poor at land combat, but against a human I can't imagine how anybody ever holds any ground in China.

Its sort of backwards too. You'd expect the Japanese to be casualty averse in that theatre with the Chinese relying on large reserves of human material to just hang on. With the relatively low chinese replacement rates though, and the extreme casualty rates Chinese units take in combat, it feels like attritition heavily favors the IJN in this theatre now.

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey
My experience (vs the AI) with combat in China is that Chinese units have glass jaws. They take huge casualties, win or lose. Just being in contact with the enemy (bombardment) burns them out in a matter of weeks.

The low experience Japanese units are the same way. After a couple rounds of combat (even battles that are won) they can be close to 100% disabled. Difference of course is that most of the Chinese are pretty low experience (/morale?) and only some of the Japanese (mostly the Chinese under Japanese control)

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, the Rebs CAPTURED the entired Union garrison in said fort (Harper's Ferry) - some 20,000 prisoners of war. Overall I think the Confederates performed pretty well on all levels of the battle, considering their strategic objectives (putting the fear in the enemy's heart and trying to draw Marylanders into the Southern army). It was a nightmarish battle, but perhaps my favorite of the Civil War.

P.S. After a lifetime of reading about Antietam, I finally had a chance to visit in 2003. We approached from Shepardstown, WV. It was amazingly surreal - one second you're driving through rural Maryland countryside, the next your in the middle of the battlefield. Because there's essentially no development, and because the visitor's center is unobtrusive, the first thing I noticed was the Dunkard Church and Sunken Road. It was like wandering right into the pages of a history book.

I have lived in the DC area and Antietam is my favorite battlefield to visit. Very beautiful and not a lot of junk such as you will find at Gettysburg. As an added plus, the bass fishing right below Burnside's bridge is pretty fine. My wife's great grandfather was severly wounded at the bridge. He was in the Union army.

Now back to business. A few comments on Japanese subs. I find sub warfare to be the best and most improved portion of this vastly improved game. It does really work well. That said, the Japanese subs are a holy terror early on. However, I have a few thoughts to share.

1. You must use large convoys. (The Allies found this out the hard way) Large convoys that cross the big water then scatter when near smaller ports. Just like in the real deal, this substantually lowers the opportunity for Japanese subs to find and attack shipping. You got to watch for carriers though.

2. With the ability to react a few hexes, subs just eat up solo, unescorted ships. No surprise here.

3. Even a poorly escorted convoy is better than no escort. (A historical truth for the Allies). I find that even with one escort, many times the Jap sub will target the escort, and most times miss.

4. April 42 is a key date as all of your fleet DDs get big improvement to their DC loads and those that don't have it get radar. Improves dection and the ability to stay and pound subs. I have gotten so tired of the "out of ammo" message with my fleet destroyers.

5. Your aircraft suck at ASW. Poor experience and lack of radar are the factor. Most sucessful attack reports are FOW lies. You bombers are not hitting anything. Only time will cure this. Note that your Catalinas have radar listed-only that it is greyed out as they do not get it before a specific date. Once they get surface search radar, detection and kills will go up as I believer that better spotting leads to air and ASW cordination, and more kills. In WITP, you could put any bomber (bettys were killers) on ASW and if they were high experienced then they would just kill away. In AE, it is your designatied patrol planes that will be the key as they (cats, mariners, pyb liberators and so on will get radar). Train them up now for naval search and ASW for the killing time that comes later.

6. I think that by mid 1943, Japanese subs should be running like the dogs they are....[;)]

7. On a positive note, your ASW is bad but not as bad as Japanese ASW. In my two campaigns as the allies both six weeks old, I am finding that there is little to fear from Japanese ASW, and the Japanese patrol planes are not going to get radar. So even though my Allies subs are mostly shooting tootsie rolls at the Japanese, I really have not lost any in combat.

Best moment yet. The Narwhale took a Japanese torpedo on the second day of the war and survived! That ain't going to happen much. She will be in the yard for a bit.

[Canoerebel]

4/2/42 and 4/3/42

Operation Antietam: The Allied carriers made it through the straits between Tasmania and Oz without encountering Jap subs. The next area of concern is rounding the corner, near Perth, where at least two Jap subs are stationed. The KB remains posted near Flores Island, conducting airfield suppression raids against bases that I'm not even using. What is Miller thinking? What is he doing? I love knowing right where the KB is. I believe he'll withdraw the KB as the Java campaign winds up, which should be soon. That may give me the perfect scenario of slipping my carriers in just as he's pulled out. Also, if the KB is still in the area or has just vacated it when the cavalry arrives, Miller won't be able to employ his carriers in the Pacific to exploit the temporary absence of the American carriers.

Subs: Thanks for the comments, gents - crsutton's observations were particularly illuminating and helpful. Meanwile, I-172 take out an AKL near Sydney and I-3 damages an AP at Pago Pago. Most of the successful and harmful Jap sub strikes in the game have occurred in port hexes, like Pago Pago, where I have ASW operating.

[Canoerebel]

The KB patrols the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

The cavalry is hugging the Australia coastline....

[Smeulders]

If he's attacking ships in port hexes, try mining them. Mines seem to be pretty good at killing subs, so you might take out a couple of subs that way.

[Canoerebel]

More good advice. Thanks, Smeulders.

Most of his attacks are occuring in smaller ports that don't have mines (Pago Pago, Noumea, Palmyra). Minelaying has been a bit of a mystery to me in AE, because I've quickly run out of mines in big bases like Pearl Harbor, Colombo, and Soerabaja. IE, stockpiles of mines are clearly treated much differently than in WitP.

Since I don't have any MLE's, yet, minelaying at distant ports is a matter of loading minelayers (especially DMs) at a port like Pearl and then sending them on the mission.

I like your idea so well that I may send one of those mine-maintenance ships (ACM?) from Pearl to Pago Pago. I'm also going to form a two big minelaying TFs next turn. One goes to Palmyra and the other to PP.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

If he's attacking ships in port hexes, try mining them. Mines seem to be pretty good at killing subs, so you might take out a couple of subs that way.

Good point, one of my Japanese sub kills was due to a mine.

[Prydwen]

I read your AAR with John and I really enjoyed it! It was such a great read. I know i didn't post much because I didn't start reading until near the end and I probly won't in this one either but I'll be watching with great interest.

As for operation Antietam, I like the name. I use to civil war re-enact and that was the biggest I ever went to 6 or 8 years ago. 10,000 total reenactors. Pretty impressive sight. If we'd have had a more aggressive commander we'd have whipped you rebels in '62 instead of '65! [;)]

McClellan =

Looking forward to the show!

The Madman!

[Canoerebel]

4/2/42 to 4/7/42
 
Thanks, Gents, for all the posts, suggestions, observations.  I read every one of them and, as you can tell, have learned important things and implemented some recommendations.
 
Operation Antietam:  The Allied carrier TFs are "rounding the horn" (SW corner of Oz) and by the 9th should be positioned WNW of Geraldton.  Thus far no encounters with Jap subs or scout ships.  I'm counting hexes and trying to figure out just how to implement the attack plan - do I scoot up on day one, launch the city attacks, and use day two to retire and put distance between the carriers and the KB?  Or, do I count on surprise and stick around for two days of bombing?  I'm leaning toward the latter.  I will likely set all the SBDs to attack strategic objectives with torpedo bombers (RN and US) set for ship attack in case I get a crack at some underprotected Jap shipping.
 
DEI:  The Japs have landed at Makassar but for some reason the attackers haven't succeeded in taking the lightly-defended base.  The first Jap unit has arrived at Soerabaja and the rest of the "stack" should follow over the next two-day-turn interval.  It suits me fine if Soerabaja falls because that is my strategic target of preference.  A strong combat TF with BBs Mutsu and Nagato was sighted near Bali on the 6th, but I haven't seen the KB in several days now.  Those prone to active imaginations in the Allied high command wonder if the Japs have been sailing around making noise to attract attention and draw the American carriers.  If Miller chooses the present to send the KB on a raid toward Perth fireworks will ensue.  But the realist in me feels certain that Miller has observed the abundant activity in SoPac - Force Z, combat ships galore, transports galore, activity at Noumea/Suva/Pago Pago galore, and has salivated over the prospect of setting the KB loose in that theater.  I am counting on my instincts here...
 
Sub Warfare:  Grrrr.  I-3 gets an AK at PP, I-9 gets an AK off Canton Island, I-7 damages DD Pope at Sydney (forgot to check how bad the damage was, but I suspect Pope is brittle), and I-8 takes out an AK carrying troops to PP (just one hex east).  ASW attacked some Jap subs without success.  Gudgeon did manage to torpedo a TK near Eniwetok - the Ships Sunk list showed the TK is worth...two...points!  Huzzah!  A Glen was sighted at Pago Pago - another straw in the wind whispering of a mounting threat in SoPac. I-22 was attacked by ASW near Colombo, the first Jap sub sighted in the India region.
 
Burma:  A vacant Rangoon fell on the 6th.
 
China:  No attacks on the MLR bases (Nanning, Liuchow, Hengyang, Changsha, Chengchow, etc.).  The Japs are present in force only at Changsha and Chengchow where daily bombardments occur.  Somehow, supplies are good at Changsha and forts are nearing six.
 
 
 

[Caliban]

I am curious as to the ASW tactics that you are employing. What are the TF comander ratings are you using (leadership and inpiration)? Are you forcing him to attack submerged or from the surface. Are you getting any sub attacks from your ASW patrols? Have you had any success near his home islands? What speed are your subs operating? What is the experence level of you crews?

Caliban (JFB)

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Caliban
I am curious as to the ASW tactics that you are employing. What are the TF comander ratings are you using (leadership and inpiration)? Are you forcing him to attack submerged or from the surface. Are you getting any sub attacks from your ASW patrols? Have you had any success near his home islands? What speed are your subs operating? What is the experence level of you crews?
Caliban (JFB)

See roster of Jap subs lost to date. This is the complete list and there are 17 - of which seven were lost to depth charging and most of the rest to mines. This is actually a fairly decent record of kills for the Allies and is a reflection more of Miller's aggressive use of subs than the skill of ASW defenses.

Probably 90% or more of Jap sub kills occur while the sub is submerged. Also, I'd say 75% of their kills are in port hexes like Palmyra, Pago Pago, and Noumea. In these bases and most of my important bases I have a combination of patrol aircraft dedicated to ASW and one or two (sometimes more) ASW TFs operating. The aicraft haven't made a single successful attack; whether they have been effective at sighting subs and allowing ASW TFs to attack I don't really know.

Your questions about the experience/aggression of the ASW TF commanders and the ASW patrol pilots led me to look at the ratings at some major bases (Palmyra, Pago Pago, Noumea, and Sydney). The aircraft are a hodgepodge of stuff ranging from Bolos and Wirraways (bad) to Catalinas (good). Pilot ASW experience ranges from about 20 to about 40. Not good. As for the ASW commanders, most have experience in the 50s, but aggression ranges from the 20s to 60.

Your post prompted me to look at these things and I'll be taking action to improve both ASW aicraft and TFs. Thanks!

P.S. The Allies have lost just a single sub in the game (in port at Manila on December 7). Allied subs have a miserable record of perhaps just six or seven successful attacks thus far (in comparison to, I'd guesstimate, at least 50 by the Japanese). There have been MANY Allied sub attacks where torpedoes hit but didn't explode.

[Canoerebel]

More info later, but see map below. Not much question about the location of the KB as Operation Antietam is underway (the Allied carriers are west of Geraldton). I don't want the KB this close when I call on Java. My carriers will slow down a bit, refuel, and monitor the KBs position over the next few days. If the KB withdraws, as I keep thinking it will, I'll proceed.

[Canoerebel]

The title to this post is intentionally misleading to prevent my opponent from catching a whiff of, "Hey, something's up..." The title to this post should be:

Allies Playing Dangerous Game of KB Chicken!

See attached map for location of the KB as of 4/11/42. Why is the KB lingering in the DEI? I've had a strong hunch that Miller would divert the KB to SoPac as soon as Java was secure and, from my perspective at least, he's got a firm grip on Java.

Does Miller have a hunch himself? Or did Allied success in the DEI a month ago unnerve him to the point that he's playing it very, very safely?

See Strategic Map in next post for additional information.

[Canoerebel]

Again, a misleading title to hopefully indicate to Miller that "all is calm, all is bright..."

Here is the strategic map as of 4/11/42. The Allied carriers are off the Oz coast near Geraldton while the KB is in the DEI. If the KB moves south fireworks are about to erupt.

I have elected to continue playing my hunch that the KB will move north. Allied carriers are steaming north to a point about 13 hexes south of Soerabaja. This should still be a safe distance from harm unless the KB moves south. If the KB remains in place I will probably withdraw my carriers (or consider switching targets from Soerabaja to Palembang).

If the KB moves off, I will immediately move on Soerabaja if it should fall to the Japs during the next two-day turn interval. If it does NOT fall (AV is 400 and forts 3, so it may not), then I'll hold the strike another two-day interval. Obviously, I can't hit Soerabaja if it is still in Allied hands.

Allied carrier and combat TFs have refueled from oilers, two of which will continue to follow. Fuel stockpiles are low at Perthy but three TKs about to arrive.

A strike on Soerabaja's oil and refinery is not worth losing the Allied carriers; yet sometimes a player plays a hunch and does his best and that's a big part of the allure of the game. I'm having fun.

[Cathartes]

He's may be lingering because there's at least one other AAR where the Allies have successfully raided with carriers in the DEI and caused some real headaches for the Japanese.