Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

I replayed the turn, got interrupted midway through and missed the second strike on the Allied carriers, but took note of the damage to the Japanese fleet, which seemed greater. Here's the full damage to the Japanese fleet (subject to FOW of course) and partial damage to the American fleet (missing results from a medium strike):

Japs:
1. Carriers: Zuiho (4 B), Soryu (2 B), Hiryu (3 B), Ryujo (1 B), Akagi (3B 1 TT), Kaga (3 B), Zuikaku (1 B), Shokaku (2 B), Shoho (3 B). I'd say Zuiho, Akagi, and Shoho are likely to go under the rest likely to survive.
2. Battleships: Ise (10 B, 2TT), Nagato (2B, 4TT), Hyuga (1B), Mutsu (1 B), Fuso (1B), Yamashiro (2B). Ise is probably toast and Nagato is 50/50.
3. One CA, one CL and three DDs damaged.

Allies:

1. Carriers: Hornet (2 TT), Lexington (2TT and 1B).
2. Battleships: Royal Sovereign (3 TT), New Mexico (5 TT), Mississippi (4 TT).
3. One CL damaged.

I know other Allied carriers were hurt by the missing strike - I still think about five Allied carriers were in rough shape.

Overall, though, you can see that the KB would be "in the shop" for months and some hard to replace ships probably went under.

[Canoerebel]

Miller's take on the battle:

"I would hate to back up becasue I would be denying you a great victory. I am guessing but I think you would have sunk a CV, a CVL and a BB whilst losing Hornet and a BB. However, several other of my Cvs would be badly damaged and out of the game for at least six months..........a huge strategic victory for you."

[Chickenboy]

P.S. Antietam appears to have been an excellent name for this operation.

Yes, you're right. Mass carnage on both sides? Check. Strategic withdrawal for one side from the region? Check.

Can you comment on the size of the IJN strike against you? Was it successful due to overwhelming numbers or did it look like his attacks were halved due to the effect of the port hex?

I'll withhold comment re: my opinion of his quitting the game after this setback.

[Canoerebel]

It's hard to tell whether the strikes were halved because he had the KB divided between Soerabaja (Hiryu, Soryu, Kaga, Akagi, Ryujo, Zuiho) and Semereng (Shokaku, Zuikaku, Shoho). These were the morning strikes:

Soerabaja: 82 Zero, 58 Kate, 44 Val (hmm, that's not all that large, so I'd say it was halved).
Semereng: 45 Z, 25 K, 24 V (same here).

So I'd say the strikes were halved making it clear that it's a dangerous thing to have carriers parked in ports. The Allies would've been destroyed by full strikes.

A second question, though: Why did the Japs get the jump here? Plenty of Jakes made sightings of the Allied carriers, but Allied Seagulls and Walrusses got plenty of sightings as did all the land-based bombers and patrol aircraft (most of these were set to 100% search). Seems like the Allies should've gotten in the first lick - they knew the precise location of the port and had plenty of patrol sightings. Why did the Japs get first strike both a.m. and p.m.?

[Swenslim]

Hm, I still think that this is draw. Compare to historic Midway Japan results are much better (if he lost only 1 CV and 1 CVL). Of cource if more japan CV's are lost this will be major defeat.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Why did the Japs get first strike both a.m. and p.m.?

I don't think it matters who goes first, does it? I always thought that each side got at least one shot....it's assumed the strikes take off and pass each other, right?[&:]

Or does it?

[Canoerebel]

Sven, the Allies can recover from big carrier battle losses early in the war, the Japs can't. The Japs have the initiative early and have to make big gains - gains that become much more difficult in the vast expanse of the Pacific. The Japs simply have to have an intact KB. So, even if the battle was a tactical draw (or even a marginal Jap tactical victory) it can be a crippling strategic blow.

Q-Ball, I'm not sure. It seems like I've seen some battles in the past where one side had much better recon information and was able to get in strikes before the other side could launch, but perhaps that memory comes from UV or even earlier (anybody remember Fighting Flattops, a web-only game that was free but then went to a charge to play?).

Note: I should note that my opponent's despair should not be taken as an indication he was ready to throw in the towel. Nearly every game I've played I've taken a lopsided losses, despaired, murmured whether I could really continue, and after a few hours or days was ready to proceed. In my game vs. John III I had that happen two or three times and ended up winning (due to Allied superiority mostly). I'll guarantee that Miller would do the same - and he's already doing his best to get the crash resolved so that we can proceed. There's no quit to Miller. I, on the other hand, realize the loss of the KB can be a death blow to the Japs, really destroying game balance. I'd almost rather re-do than have the game thrown so out-of-whack.

But, as noted previously, I think the battle may have been much more costly to the Allies than Miller realizes. We'll see!

Some lessons I take from this battle:

1. Carriers in port are much more vulnerable.
2. Fog of war is much better in AE - in WitP I think Miller might've gotten wind of the Allied fleet approaching Java - through my seaplanes sighting this or that and him getting copies of those reports, etc. Here, my seaplanes generated alot of traffic ("wake sighted," "shadow sighted," etc.), but Miller apparently didn't see any of that.
3. Hermes' Swordfish were a help. I often poo-poo Hermes, but she's done good work twice in this game.
4. Massing Allied carriers (RN and US) early in the game is effective, but they still can't stand up to the consolidated KB (unless the KB is depleted or in port). Had I tangled with the KB straight up in the open ocean I would've lost badly. So don't get too frisky even with 5 US CVs and 2 RN CVs (or, when Wasp arrives in mid-42, 6 US CVs). I'll be sure to keep that in mind. I got lucky this time.
5. I had all my carriers in one-CV TFs, which once again proved effective at limiting the number of carriers targeted.
6. Three or four Allied carrier TFs included BBs - in those cases both BBs and accompanying carrier seemed to get whacked pretty hard. Not sure it made a great deal of difference to have the BBs along. I mean, if you're going to take six strikes from torpedoes in one TF, would you prefer to have three vs. a carrier and three vs. a BB or all six vs. a carrier? I haven't drawn any final conclusions, but this is something to mull over.
7. The mutual damage inflicted seems very realistic - yet another nod to the AE developers. Sometimes in Uncommon Valor you'd get ridiculously one-sided carrier battles. This one smacked of realism.
8. It's easier playing the Allies.
9. I used to think playing the Allies early in the war was a chore and a burden; not so, both judging from my AE and WitP games and from some of the other AARs I'm reading right now. Experienced Allied players have alot of challenges in arranging their defenses and have some opportunities to really mess with the Japs.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


6. Three or four Allied carrier TFs included BBs - in those cases both BBs and accompanying carrier seemed to get whacked pretty hard. Not sure it made a great deal of difference to have the BBs along. I mean, if you're going to take six strikes from torpedoes in one TF, would you prefer to have three vs. a carrier and three vs. a BB or all six vs. a carrier? I haven't drawn any final conclusions, but this is something to mull over.

Tough call. Sometimes allied CV's can survive 2 or 3 torps, but all 6? I would have the BB's along. Of course the old ones slow you down, so still a tough call.

[ny59giants]

I would say the BBs helped soak up 12 TTs that would have put more of the Allies CVs under the waves. I lean towards having the Allied BBs along with the CVs whenever possible just for this reason. Now with AE, you can have a BB heavy SC TF be followed by 2 or 3 hexes by your CVs and hope they take in most of the attack.

A Japanese player will now need to keep a few Glen equipped subs with KB as forward scouts. The modern day US Navy always has at a sub or two with her CVNs to listen and prevent attacks as SOP. 

[Chickenboy]

Canorebel,

As mentioned previously, had you been playing one day turns, I think there's a possibility that Miller would have come off even worse off. If you had timed your strike (or the game had allowed) your strike while he was refilling (instead of the 'next play interval'-2 days), he would also have lost his carrier op points while refueling. Diminished CAP and limited strike would have likely resulted beyond the effect of the port hex effect.

How many of the IJN planes were damaged or destroyed by flak before they got at your CVs? The BB tremendous flak capability could have destroyed or diminished the effect of these a/c before they got at your CVs, thus making damage to your carriers less. That, in addition to the 'torp magnet', make BBs a must in my CV group formations.

Did your air groups from your damaged CVs divert somewhere? His most certainly did and will probably form quite a formidable defense on Java now. If there's a consolation to him, this would be it. In a deep-ocean encounter, these pilots and their aircraft would have been lost if unable to divert to intact carriers. He can use these as a nucleus for replacement CV pilots as the game moves forward. It is probably worth rounding up your stray aircraft in an effort to salvage these airgroups, wherever they may be.

Hermes' aircraft (and maybe others) are likely out of torpedoes now, making those stringbags considerably less effective. Run Forrest, run!

Looking forward to your replay bug being settled so you may proceed. Glad to hear that the 'throwing in the towel' grumbles are just that.

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, I had carrier aircraft diverting to Malang - I *think* squadrons from at least three carriers. I'll have to move them to Koepang (which my opponent is invading right now), Kendari or Ambon to get them to Oz. I'm sure alot of his aircraft diverted too, but I'm not privy to those reports, naturally. One of his big mistakes was that he didn't have base forces at Soerabaja or Semereng to immediately handle LBA once he took those bases.

You bet I'll run - I hope I get to see the file. I expect to find Hornet sunk, two or three or maybe four carriers crippled, and the rest anxious to get out of dodge.

I think CAP and flak damaged or destroyed a fair number of Jap aircraft, but it wasn't a blood bath. Here's my notes from the two morning raids:

A. First Strike (from the Soerabaja carriers) (total/# destroyed)
1. Zero - 82/4
2. Kate - 58/7
3. Val - 44/9

B. Second Strike (from Semereng-based carriers)
1. Zero - 45/1
2. Kate - 25/7
3. Val - 24/5

[BrucePowers]

Any way you look at it.............Ouch![X(]

[Chickenboy]

Canorebel,

Because, in part, I'm anxiously awaiting turns from my two PBEM foes-no pressure, guys [:D], I can't get this AAR out of my head.

I think what you've done here puts the lie to the prototypical 'Sir Robin' approach to the Allies in WiTP. The Allies, with thorough planning and audacity, can severely retard IJN expansion and alter the course of the war EARLY in the game. And they can do it in the DEI.

These concepts have been roundly pilloried by those who have assumed the dogma of 'run now, fight later'. You have shown tremendous moxy, horse sense and a solid grasp of tactical prowess and pulled off a significant strategic victory. You are to be congratulated, sir.

As much as I appreciate the parallels to the battle of Antietam in the US Civil War, I request your indulgence to reconsider the naming of this battle. Would you consider "The 1942 naval battle of Java" or "The 1942 naval battle of Soerbaja" to enshrine where this fundamental shift in the timeline of your war took place? It didn't occur somewhere in the Solomons in 1943 or in the Phillipine Islands in 1944, but in 1942, in what should have been the backyard of the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere.

Alright, I'm shutting up now (and there was much rejoicing...). Just had to say-job well done!

[Swenslim]

If Japan player was more cautios this result ciuld be totally another. If he had Oscars, Zeroes, Nells at oerabaja or somwhere nearby ?

[JeffroK]

Antietam or Sharpsburg,

You've given a sharp slap (nearly fatal) to Miller but maybe next turn you'll have a swarm of Betty's chasing you home.

This raid, like attacks on Iwo Jima or Hokkaido in 1943 will make the JFB more cautious for a few more months.

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Antietam or Sharpsburg,

Not a bad analogy. And if you know your opponant very well, it can work. But just remember..., all that would have had to happen at Sharpsburg for the Army of Northern Virginia to be crushed was for "Little Mac" to have woken up that morning with a set of cohones and said. "Alright! EVERYBODY pick up a stick and advance.., NOW!"

[Chickenboy]

Yup, coulda ended differently. But it didn't. Major victory, Canorebel.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Gents, for various comments and insights. A few notes as my opponent continues his efforts to get the game-replay crash rectified via the Technical Support forum):

1. This will be recorded in history as the Battle of Java, the clash the resulted when the Allies fully implemented Operation Antietam (in the same way the Operation Watchtower resulted in the Battle of Guadalcanal).

2. As a genuine Southerner, I realize that the South called Antietam the Battle of Sharpsburg. I generally refer to it in that fashion, but I didn't in this case for reasons I can't explain and that don't really matter. I don't mind calling battles by the Union name nor do I mind Confederates being referred to as the Rebels (they did so themselves, frequently) nor to the War Between the States as the Civil War (many Confederates referred to it as the Civil War in later years).

3. Swenslim, I certainly wouldn't have proceeded with this operation if I had thought LBA would be present. I was willing to take on the KB without LBA (because I figured the KB's airpower was halved due to the carriers' presence in port). Alternatively, I was willing to take on some LBA in the absence of the KB in order to accomplish a city/oil/refinery strike on Soerabaja (figuring it was a surprise attack that actually wouldn't encounter much LBA).

4. I've really played a Sir Robin defense in this game and in my two WitP games. I tend to pull everything out. In this game, though, I did sneak in surface combat and carrier TFs several times in successful efforts to sting and slow down my opponent. I considered, but ultimately rejected, the idea of diverting to Java some of the Aussie troops that arrive in Aden. That might be successful, but it's risky. Ultimately, I felt like such a move might be unsuccessful and it wasn't necessary to my long-term objetive of winning the game.

[Canoerebel]

The Combat Report for the big carrier battle at Java on 4/19/42:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Apr 19, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on TF, near Madioen at 53,107 (From KB ships at Soerabaja)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 82
B5N1 Kate x 14
B5N2 Kate x 44
D3A1 Val x 44

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 3
Sea Hurricane Ib x 4
Martlet II x 19
F2A-3 Buffalo x 13
F4F-3A Wildcat x 8
F4F-3 Wildcat x 24
F4F-4 Wildcat x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed
B5N1 Kate: 4 destroyed, 6 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 7 destroyed, 28 damaged
D3A1 Val: 9 destroyed, 12 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Fulmar II: 1 destroyed
Martlet II: 1 destroyed
F2A-3 Buffalo: 2 destroyed
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Indomitable
CVL Hermes
CL Durban
BB Royal Sovereign, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CV Hornet, Torpedo hits 2, on fire
CA Minneapolis
CL Glasgow

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Madioen at 53,107 [From KB ships at Semereng]

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45
B5N2 Kate x 25
D3A1 Val x 24

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 1
Sea Hurricane Ib x 2
Martlet II x 6
F2A-3 Buffalo x 5
F4F-3A Wildcat x 5
F4F-3 Wildcat x 12
F4F-4 Wildcat x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 7 destroyed, 9 damaged
D3A1 Val: 5 destroyed, 8 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Martlet II: 1 destroyed
F2A-3 Buffalo: 1 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVL Hermes
CV Indomitable, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
CV Hornet, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CL Boise
DD John D. Ford
CL Danae
CL Dragon

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Soerabaja at 56,104 [vs. KB ships at Soerabaja]

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 59

Allied aircraft
Albacore I x 27
Fulmar II x 6
Sea Hurricane Ib x 8
Swordfish I x 11
F4F-3A Wildcat x 19
F4F-3 Wildcat x 56
F4F-4 Wildcat x 15
SBD-2 Dauntless x 17
SBD-3 Dauntless x 151
TBD-1 Devastator x 74

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Albacore I: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
Fulmar II: 1 destroyed
Swordfish I: 4 damaged
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
SBD-2 Dauntless: 7 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 4 destroyed, 10 damaged
TBD-1 Devastator: 2 destroyed, 20 damaged

Japanese Ships
CVL Zuiho, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires
CV Soryu, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
BB Ise, Bomb hits 10, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CV Hiryu, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
BB Nagato, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CVL Ryujo, Bomb hits 1
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 1
DD Urakaze
CV Akagi, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CV Kaga, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
CL Sendai
BB Hyuga, Bomb hits 1
CA Haguro, Bomb hits 1
CS Chitose
DD Kasumi
CL Naka
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Shiratsuyu
CL Tama, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Yudachi
DD Yamakaze, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Kagero
DD Shiranui, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Shigure
DD Tanikaze
CA Myoko
DD Hayashio
DD Oyashio
DD Yamagumo, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Yukikaze

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Soryu
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Kaga
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Zuiho
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Hiryu
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Shiranui
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Akagi
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring BB Ise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Madioen at 53,107

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 2
D3A1 Val x 4

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 2
Sea Hurricane Ib x 2
Martlet II x 2
75A-7 Hawk x 1
F2A-3 Buffalo x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 5
F4F-3 Wildcat x 17
F4F-4 Wildcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Madioen at 53,107

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 55
B5N1 Kate x 10
B5N2 Kate x 34
D3A1 Val x 37

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 1
Sea Hurricane Ib x 2
Martlet II x 2
75A-7 Hawk x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 5
F4F-3 Wildcat x 16
F4F-4 Wildcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed, 26 damaged
D3A1 Val: 4 destroyed, 17 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 1
CA Chester
BB New Mexico, Torpedo hits 1
CV Saratoga

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Madioen at 53,107

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 42
B5N2 Kate x 23
D3A1 Val x 24

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 1
Martlet II x 1
F4F-3A Wildcat x 2
F4F-3 Wildcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed, 13 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed, 16 damaged

Allied Ships
CV Lexington, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
CL Hobart, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
BB New Mexico, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
BB Revenge
BB Mississippi, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CA Portland

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Semarang at 53,102

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 37

Allied aircraft
Martlet II x 4
F4F-3A Wildcat x 10
F4F-3 Wildcat x 25
F4F-4 Wildcat x 10
SBD-3 Dauntless x 92
TBD-1 Devastator x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3A Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
SBD-3 Dauntless: 7 destroyed, 22 damaged
TBD-1 Devastator: 1 destroyed, 26 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 1
BB Fuso, Bomb hits 1
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CVL Shoho, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Yura
BB Yamashiro, Bomb hits 2

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Shoho
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring a Akagi class CV

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Soerabaja at 56,104

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 18 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 30

Allied aircraft
Albacore I x 3
Swordfish I x 3
SBD-2 Dauntless x 14
TBD-1 Devastator x 10

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Albacore I: 2 destroyed
Swordfish I: 2 destroyed
SBD-2 Dauntless: 3 destroyed
TBD-1 Devastator: 5 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga

[Canoerebel]

I still haven't seen the actual turn file (to open up and see what damage my ships actually suffered), but judging from the combat.txt report here is a summary of the impact of the Battle of Java:

A. Allies
1. Sunk - CV Hornet, BB Royal Sovereign, BB Mississippi, BB New Mexico
2. Crippled - CV Lexington, CV Indomitable, CL Hobart

B. Japanese
1. Sunk - CV Akagi (75% sure), CVL Zuiho, CVL Shoho, BB Ise, BB Nagato (50% sure)
2. Crippled - CV Kaga, CV Hiryu, CV Soryu, CL Tama, three DDs
3. Damaged/Out of Action Awhile - CV Shokaku, CV Zuikaku
4. Lightly Damaged - CVL Ryujo, four BBs and a CA

As you can see, the actual "sunk or crippled" list is much more even than I think Miller thought at first. On the other hand, I think the impression that the Japs suffered a grievous strategic loss is correct. Nearly the entire KB should be out of operation for many months. Perhaps Miller can get Shokaku, Zuikaku, Ryujo and a few other escort carriers to sea in a month or two, but that would be it. In contrast, the Allies should have Formidable, Hermes, Saratoga, Yorktown, and Enterprise with Wasp set to arrive in two months.