ORIGINAL: stuman
So , imo , if I think the Soviets would not, under any circumstances have UNILATERALLY started a war with Japan in 1942, then I submit that fact has to also be considered when coming up with " 1 to 6 " odds.
You’re missing my point entirely. I totally agree with you that when you apply hindsight to the situation it makes sense that Russia would be less likely to attack in 42 than in 43, and less likely to attack in 43 than in 44, and so on.
But Japan did not make its garrison decisions for Manchukuo based on this hindsight. The moment Russia became an ally of the US and Britain in Europe, Japan feared invasion was imminent. That was their only consideration in what decisions they made. And that’s why they kept a very large force sitting out the war in Manchukuo for the entire war.
That’s why an arbitrary 1 in 6 roll makes more sense to me when it comes to trying to put the same kind of historical pressure on any decision a Japanese player might want to make in game.
You want the odds of activation to be tied to historical realities that hindsight gives you knowledge of today. But Japan didn’t have that luxury when it came to making the decisions they made, to them at the time, from 1942 onwards they were terrified the Soviets would join their allies in the Pacific war at any moment.
So to make the players feel the same pressures the historical Japanese faced during the war, then you have to make activation truly an arbitrary roll that no one can predict. Any other solution (including what we have now) gives the benefit of hindsight to Japan and takes away the historical benefit an over-large paranoid Japanese garrison actually gave the allies during the war.
Jim
