Nomonhan Redux: Seydlitz (Japan) vs. MBatch729 (Allies)

[seydlitz_slith]

I also captured Loyang!

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Ground combat at Loyang (87,43)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 116950 troops, 872 guns, 269 vehicles, Assault Value = 3296

Defending force 36499 troops, 272 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 566

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 3048

Allied adjusted defense: 499

Japanese assault odds: 6 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Loyang !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+), fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
3160 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 174 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 117 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Vehicles lost 8 (0 destroyed, 8 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
18415 casualties reported
Squads: 521 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 1058 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 90 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 33 (26 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Units retreated 18


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
Assaulting units:...
17th Division...
3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade...
35th Division...
15th Division...
59th Infantry Brigade...
22nd Division...
8th Ind.Mixed Brigade...
110th Division...
7th Ind.Mixed Brigade...
27th Division...
32nd Division...
1st Army...
12th Army...
...
Defending units:...
9th Chinese Corps...
93rd Chinese Corps...
80th Chinese Corps...
98th Chinese Corps...
27th Chinese Corps...
40th Chinese Corps...
33rd Chinese Corps...
2nd Chinese Cavalry Corps...
5th New Chinese Corps...
Jingcha War Area ...
4th Chinese Base Force...
36th Group Army...
15th Group Army...
24th Group Army...
39th Group Army...
14th Group Army...
1st War Area ...
10th Chinese Base Force...

[seydlitz_slith]

With these two major victories, I am going to a consolidate and hold strategy in China for a bit. This will allow me to pull out some units and send them north to the Mongolian border. Once there, I can use them to defend if the northern soviet forces have broken through, or I can use them to attack Ulan Bator and beyond through Mongolia.

[seydlitz_slith]

Finally, here are a couple of shots to show you that my subs are still out there looking for targets and trying to intimidate him. Not pictured are my 3 subs around hawaii. They get spotted every turn and I move them every turn. This breaks the detection but also helps make him think that I have even more subs there.

Here are my subs off San Diego.

[seydlitz_slith]

And in the Bass straits watching for supplies arriving from Capetown. You can't see it on the map but I mined Perth using one of the Japanese minelaying subs in case his ships stop for fuel there.

Pretty good turn overall.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: seydlitz
Not sure how this could be since I do not play allied, but that is what he said.

You guys have run into the problem historically based fixed pools create when non-historic things happen in game. Soviet airframe production is so low (8 or 16 airframes per fighter per month) it only takes one or two battles to wipe out a full months production.

What’s even worse is the fact the Soviets apparently get no armor production at all. As I read the replacement chart, T-26 and BT-7 production stop after just 1 months production and no new armor production begins for the Soviets until the T-34/85 starts up in mid 1944. I find no T-34/76 type tank on the chart to fill tank production for the intervening years.

Jim

[seydlitz_slith]

Good point Jim. Thanks for the synopsis. This sounds like another case where there needs to be a tripwire that releases additional replacement aircraft, infantry, and tanks if the Soviets do activate. Historically, this would have been a trying time for the Soviets and I don't know how many additional replacements could be spared from the war with Germany, but I imagine that they would find something somewhere if they were in danger of losing their far east ports.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: seydlitz
I don't know how many additional replacements could be spared from the war with Germany, but I imagine that they would find something somewhere if they were in danger of losing their far east ports.

I agree. The Soviets produced 9, 924 fighters in 1942. Even if they only diverted 10% of their production to deal with the threat, that’s roughly 1, 000 fighters. This is about twice what the game produces for them now. But I doubt they’d only divert a measly 10% with such a large threat to deal with. Especially since they pulled back their airforce in the face of the German onslaught for most of 1942 anyway.

Jim

[Fishbed]

Sometimes I wonder rather if the Soviets may simply have given up the Far-East with a fighting withdrawal, waiting for a better day. It's not like the Japanese had the means to go way beyond the Lake Baikal, or really up north. We use to say they had land to trade in the West. But look at the East, that's not land, that's a continent!

[Xxzard]

Agreed, but they did invest a sizeable number of units into the area even when facing the Germans in the West. If they planned to give it up, they weren't going to do it without a fight. I believe that Vladiovostock was also felt to be rather important, at least symbolically.

Now we have the pleasure of seeing a rough estimation of what would happen if the Japanese attacked in 42.

[modrow]

Rob Brennan,

ORIGINAL: Rob Brennan UK
Looks like his supplies are running low in Voroshilov. Im basing this on the relative number of gun tubes and losses. Tubes are roughly similar in number and i would imagine in calible too (soviet arty is good). Losses however are 4-1 in your favour. This may of course be an artifact of you good choice to use rest mode and rotate units.

interesting remark. I read this excellent AAR (thanks [&o])also because of the detailed info on the Voroshilov gun duels. Here, we have a different setup than the China gun duel reports Canoerebel provided, so maybe one can identify relevant factors.

The supply aspect is one which I may not have considered sufficiently so far. However, if this was the case, should we not see a deteriorating trend in the results ? Or would it just affect in steps (supply orange, supply red)? I was under the impression that the results stay about equal, perhaps even improve for the Soviets especially with respect to the effectiveness of counter barrage. Thus, so far I have interpreted the differences as an indication for the fact that perhaps experience of the troops involved is decisive (note that I did not check the exp values for the candidate units). Perhaps one should try a more statistical approach...

Just my free-flowing thoughts... maybe nonsense...

Hartwig

[bklooste]

Im not sure its supply i would expect more drastic drop , i suspect its high disruption and fatigue.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Xxzard
If they planned to give it up, they weren't going to do it without a fight. I believe that Vladiovostock was also felt to be rather important, at least symbolically.

I agree, and the fact they had already gone over to offensive operations against Germany by the time 7 Dec. rolled around means the panic and fear of late summer 41 was already behind them and the disasters of Spring 42 were still yet to occur.

I don’t think they’d have had a problem in sending 10 or 15 divisions and other assets to deal with a Japanese attack in Dec 41. Sending that amount of stuff after Germany had launched its spring offensives in 42 is a different story of course, the panic of 41 would be creeping back into STAVKA’s thought process by then. So perhaps a May/June withdraw date could be added to half of the special reinforcing divisions, assuming they add such a force to the game.

Jim

[Rob Brennan UK]

ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns

ORIGINAL: Rob Brennan UK
However he can in AE as its hexsides that now matter.

After seeing what happened to the units in Manila, I'm not sure this aspect of the game is WAD. Otherwise the Manila units should have retreated to Clark, but they surrendered instead.

Jim

I have to confess i'm not 100% either. but it seems that way for supply purposes and in Aztez game it did affect retreats iirc. I need another brain for AE info, all my WitP knowledge is leaking out and being replaced, slowly. [;)]

Re the supply maybe i brought up earlier, as i said it was a guess but a 4-1 loss differance does need some explanation, maybe it is fatigue and disruption. only one person really knows and he's not posting here [:D]

[seydlitz_slith]

We will know more about the artillery effects when my units attack this turn. We will have to look at how that attack comes off including AV modifiers from base. Hopefully I will get the turn from Mark in time to do it this evening.

[seydlitz_slith]

Turn 66 10 Feb 1942

The weather was poor again, but I pounded Vladivostok and Voroshilov with airstrikes all turn.
It was a low action turn except for the continued sub attacks on the KB that are happening every turn, the air raids, and the shock attack that I attempted at Voroshilov.

In looking at the results, I think that he is not quite out of supply, but is heavily fatigued and disrupted. What do you guys think?

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Ground combat at Voroshilov (112,45)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 88385 troops, 1069 guns, 713 vehicles, Assault Value = 2426

Defending force 72846 troops, 1523 guns, 765 vehicles, Assault Value = 1971

Japanese adjusted assault: 661

Allied adjusted defense: 346

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
6894 casualties reported
Squads: 44 destroyed, 319 disabled
Non Combat: 90 destroyed, 349 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 50 disabled
Guns lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 107 (41 destroyed, 66 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
4169 casualties reported
Squads: 56 destroyed, 170 disabled
Non Combat: 135 destroyed, 289 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 24 disabled
Guns lost 80 (26 destroyed, 54 disabled)
Vehicles lost 177 (122 destroyed, 55 disabled)

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Ground combat at Voroshilov (112,45)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 60575 troops, 1402 guns, 607 vehicles, Assault Value = 1716

Defending force 96623 troops, 1076 guns, 924 vehicles, Assault Value = 2040

Japanese ground losses:
1217 casualties reported
Squads: 40 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 78 destroyed, 85 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 61 (26 destroyed, 35 disabled)
Vehicles lost 91 (57 destroyed, 34 disabled)

I felt very good that I knocked his AV down quite a bit and that the fight was at 1 to 1. Last time it was like 1 to 5.

However, most of my units are highly disrupted, especially my infantry units. So once again, I will continue to bombard every turn and hit him with airstrikes until he cracks. Meanwhile, my infantry units are all in reserve again to remove disruption.

Here is a snap of one of my disrupted units. Several others are in close to this condition:

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: seydlitz



Here is a snap of one of my disrupted units. Several others are in close to this condition:

would say it´s also pretty much maxxed out in terms of being disabled... I wouldn´t call this unit combat ready. [:D]

[LoBaron]

still 64 morale though...[X(]
you got a couple of geishas around to keep them happy? (could also explain the 99 dis / 81 fat ... [:D] )
 
How worried are you about sub attacks on the KB? Speaking of it what is the performance of the Russian subs
anyway? i guess the torps have a higher reliability?
 
 

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: seydlitz
I felt very good that I knocked his AV down quite a bit and that the fight was at 1 to 1. Last time it was like 1 to 5.

I’d be careful about assuming too much at this point. It’s very possible he had half or more of his combat units assigned to bombard along with his artillery units and their AV would have been halved because of it. Seeing you launch such a shock attack he may put the units back to defend and his AV will grow next go around.

It’s also possible he had a lot of units in reserve that didn’t enter the fight. Hard to tell how bad off he actually is without a lot more combats under your belt there.

Jim

[seydlitz_slith]

I am definitely back to reserve and bombard here for a bit. So if he puts his units on defend that is fine since more will take casualties.

Here is another highly disrupted unit that is also very disabled. It would only take one Geisha to supply this unit.

[Caliban]

How significant, do you believe, was the degradation of his fortifications from level 2 to level 1?

Where are your paratroops?

Once again, THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH for this wonderful AAR.


Caliban