Nomonhan Redux: Seydlitz (Japan) vs. MBatch729 (Allies)

[seydlitz_slith]

I believe knocking the fort level down to one is significant because I should be able to recover from the disruption before he builds it back to level two. This gives the possibility of a straight up fight next time.

If you look at the reduction in combat AV from the raw number to the modified number that the odds were based on, you can see that both of us were reduced by about 75%. If I can destroy the fort then I should be able to overcome his forces.

The artillery is terrible...as in artillery like you imagined in WWI. Even clicking to speed up the replay during the combat results in about 4 minutes worth of shooting (or 45 minutes if you just let the attack play out at normal speed). I believe that it is the cause of most of the causalties on both sides as well as the high disruption number among my assaulting troops.

Even with the weather, I think that I am slowly gaining the advantage because I have choked off his supply and I am slowly eroding the supplies that he has on hand. Also, since I have control of the skies, I will continue to pound his units daily to slow down their recovery from disruption. Even if he puts his guys into reserve, it doesn't shield them from air attacks.

[seydlitz_slith]

ORIGINAL: Caliban

Where are your paratroops?


Caliban

Right now they are down south in Borneo and Luzon. I haven't decided yet whether or not to bring the two units on Luzon north or to leave them down south.

[jrlans]

Great AAR. Im thinking of acutaly trying to tackle the japanese side of the game for the first time (have a PBEM opponent that wants to play allies) and reading your AAR is giving me some interesting ideas.  Though I have to admit the scariest thing is trying to manage the economy any tips?

[Ghertz]

ORIGINAL: Caliban

How significant, do you believe, was the degradation of his fortifications from level 2 to level 1?

Where are your paratroops?

Once again, THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH for this wonderful AAR.


Caliban

I concur, this is a fascinating alternative history.

[offenseman]

ORIGINAL: jrlans

Great AAR. Im thinking of acutaly trying to tackle the japanese side of the game for the first time (have a PBEM opponent that wants to play allies) and reading your AAR is giving me some interesting ideas.  Though I have to admit the scariest thing is trying to manage the economy any tips?

One that strikes me as immediately needed is to start moving resources from The other home islands,especially Sakhalin, and Korea to Honshu on day one. If you use WITP Staff, you will see that your resources get used up in a hurry. Watch out for surface raiders. The AI sent a cruiser TF toward Sakhalin and sank some AKs on me. Air patrols are slim up there.

[seydlitz_slith]

ORIGINAL: jrlans

Great AAR. Im thinking of acutaly trying to tackle the japanese side of the game for the first time (have a PBEM opponent that wants to play allies) and reading your AAR is giving me some interesting ideas.  Though I have to admit the scariest thing is trying to manage the economy any tips?

Here are a few for the economy.
1. Leave your research aircraft factories alone at least for the first couple of months. It is very tempting to change them to a few specific airframes that you want and to expand them so that they research faster. The reality is that you expend HI and supply during the expansion and repair only to find out that most of the factories don't repair up like you expect that they should. Therefore you have burned valuable HI and supplies without receiving benefit of greatly increased research.

2. Expand vehicle production as much as possible.

3. Expand armaments production modestly.

4. See my posts in the first few pages of the AAR regarding setting up naval and merchant production.

You have about a year's worth of oil to start as well as a reserve of HI and supply that are gone once you use them. Spend them wisely, especially the supply.

On resources, much has changed since witp. Many of the Chinese and Korean coastal hexes have a build up of resources that you can grab via convoy using your smaller AKLs and keep shipping back to Japan. So at least during the first 6 months, you are not going to starve if you haven't taken Sumatra, Borneo, or Java. Eventually, however you will need to acquire resources and oil from the SRA area.

Good luck.

[medicff]

Awesome AAR Seydlitz, I have learned much from your experiments [:D]

Once again this brings up the ground combat/bombardment system flaws. As a defender you cannot afford to reserve your forces in a close battle as you are never sure when the shock attack is coming, so you are doomed to a slow disintegration of your forces while the attacker can rotate and beat you down.

Nothing against your skill and very glad that these areas are discovered thru some really good players and testers (those that do the unusual) [8D]

[Xxzard]

Once again this brings up the ground combat/bombardment system flaws. As a defender you cannot afford to reserve your forces in a close battle as you are never sure when the shock attack is coming, so you are doomed to a slow disintegration of your forces while the attacker can rotate and beat you down.

It occurs to me that although unfair, this is much as how it goes in real life. The ability to rotate and rest units is certainly an advantage of having higher AV, hence why having a higher AV usually leads to victory.

In my opinion, I think this is an improvement in that some of the issues of an unbreakable defensive front in old witp have been changed. Now 1/2 odds in an attack is still something of a success, not the total defeat 0-1 usually was. I believe attrition warfare works better now.

On the other hand, I don't like the massive casualties caused by one day's bombardment. I don't think casualties were often that high even in World War One from bombardments alone. Artillery is unquestionably important, but I have rarely seen a battle where the victor was entirely determined by it.

[seydlitz_slith]

On the first day of the battle of the Somme in 1916, the British took over 60,000 casualties. After 5 months of fighting, the lines had advanced only seven miles but the collective casualties of both sides totalled a million men.

That is the battle that I think of when I think of the battle that we have going on at Voroshilov.


Medicff: I hear what you are saying, but I will say that this is a much better model than most operational level games in that you have options. We didn't even have these options in witp. So, in that way it is an improvement. Even when defending in a close battle, I will often try to pop at least one unit into reserve for a turn or two after combat if it is an even combat. It is a gamble, but rotating the units let's them recover faster and even as a defender it can help me out in some cases. It is risky to be sure, but I like having the option.

Xxzard: I agree totally with your points. This Voroshilov deal reminds me of the battle of the Somme in WWI. The British took 60,000 casualties on the first day alone and over 5 months the combined British and German casualties exceeded one million men.

[seydlitz_slith]

Turn 67 11 Feb 1942

First, news from the mad scientists and crazed engineers in the test labs at home.

[seydlitz_slith]

I kept pounding Voroshilov and Vladivostok this turn from the air.

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Morning Air attack on Vladivostok , at 112,46

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 51



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 17 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
MBR-2: 1 destroyed on ground
I-16m24: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
SS ShCh-102, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Karlotta, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk



Airbase hits 4
Runway hits 21

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Morning Air attack on Vladivostok , at 112,46

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 6



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses



Runway hits 5

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Morning Air attack on Vladivostok , at 112,46

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 45 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 31
B5N2 Kate x 117
D3A1 Val x 70



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
D3A1 Val: 9 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
SB-2: 3 destroyed on ground
R-10: 1 destroyed on ground
I-153: 3 destroyed on ground
MBR-2: 1 destroyed on ground
Do J Wal: 1 destroyed on ground
I-16m24: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
xAKL PK-37, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL PK-34, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage



Repair Shipyard hits 4
Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 45
Port hits 2
Port fuel hits 2
Port supply hits 1

[seydlitz_slith]

Here are the raids on Voroshilov

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Morning Air attack on Voroshilov , at 112,45

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 42 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 22
G4M1 Betty x 63



Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 6 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 5 damaged


Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 66
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Morning Air attack on Voroshilov , at 112,45

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 47 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9
G3M2 Nell x 21



Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged



Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 16
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Morning Air attack on 40th Rifle Division, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 37
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 5
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 5



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 8 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 2 damaged
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 2 damaged


Allied ground losses:
33 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
19 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
5 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
3 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
5 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 22nd Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 39th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 46th Engr-Sapper Brigade ......
Also attacking 100th OM Howitzer Battalion ......
Also attacking 199th BM Howitzer Regiment ......
Also attacking 40th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 39th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 199th BM Howitzer Regiment ......
Also attacking 40th Rifle Division ......
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Morning Air attack on 105th Rifle Division, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 15
Ki-51 Sonia x 11



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 5 damaged
Ki-51 Sonia: 4 damaged


Allied ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
11 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 50 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 98th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 165th Hvy Howitzer Regiment ......
Also attacking 105th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 98th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 165th Hvy Howitzer Regiment ......
Also attacking 105th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 98th Rifle Division ......
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Morning Air attack on 105th Rifle Division, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 33
Ki-27b Nate x 34
Ki-32 Mary x 4
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 3



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 5 damaged
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 1 damaged


Allied ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
24 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
3 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb
4 x Ki-32 Mary bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 126th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 59th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 4th Ussurii Tank Brigade ......
Also attacking 6th Ussurii Tank Brigade ......
Also attacking 273rd Cannon Regiment ......
Also attacking 190th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 105th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 126th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 59th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 105th Rifle Division ......

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Morning Air attack on 126th Rifle Division, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 38 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 15
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 24



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 4 damaged
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 4 damaged


Allied ground losses:
43 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
24 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb
15 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 190th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 126th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 190th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 126th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 190th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 126th Rifle Division ......
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Morning Air attack on 98th Rifle Division, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 44 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-32 Mary x 18
Ki-36 Ida x 17
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 29



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-32 Mary: 4 damaged
Ki-36 Ida: 2 damaged


Allied ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
18 x Ki-32 Mary bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
17 x Ki-36 Ida bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 30 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 25th Army ......
Also attacking 1139th Cannon Regiment ......
Also attacking 98th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 25th Army ......
Also attacking 98th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 25th Army ......
Also attacking 98th Rifle Division ......

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Morning Air attack on 22nd Rifle Division, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 20



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 3 damaged


Allied ground losses:
69 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (0 destroyed, 4 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
20 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 39th Rifle Division, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 8
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 18



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 2 damaged
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 5 damaged


Allied ground losses:
12 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (0 destroyed, 3 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 76th Tank Brigade ......
Also attacking 39th Rifle Division ......
Also attacking 76th Tank Brigade ......

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Morning Air attack on 83rd VVS Base Force, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-30 Ann x 9



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-30 Ann: 2 damaged


Allied ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
9 x Ki-30 Ann bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 93rd VVS Base Force ......
Also attacking 83rd VVS Base Force ......

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Morning Air attack on 83rd VVS Base Force, at 112,45 (Voroshilov)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 3



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
3 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 100 kg GP Bomb

[seydlitz_slith]

As you can see, when I talk about continually pounding him with airstrikes I am not messing around. There is a serious chunk of Japanese air force involved in these strikes. This should make it tough for his units to recover strength in combination with the bombardment attacks.

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Ground combat at Voroshilov (112,45)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4215 troops, 401 guns, 279 vehicles, Assault Value = 1980

Defending force 67356 troops, 1529 guns, 656 vehicles, Assault Value = 1729

Japanese ground losses:
Guns lost 8 (6 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1998 casualties reported
Squads: 45 destroyed, 44 disabled
Non Combat: 67 destroyed, 52 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 40 (26 destroyed, 14 disabled)
Vehicles lost 136 (112 destroyed, 24 disabled)

He did not even try a bombardment attack this turn and remarked that he was surprised that he held as well as he thought. That tells me that he must be about out of supplies in the hex.


While I am thinking about it, here are screen snaps of the two units that were at 99 disruption last turn. This will give you an idea about how they are recovering in reserve after just one turn.

[seydlitz_slith]

I am somewhat concerned that my support is now insufficient for the units in the hex. Before the battle this was not the case.

Here is the other unit:

[seydlitz_slith]

My aircraft losses are not bad considering the sortie rate:

[seydlitz_slith]

According to the ships sunk record, I claimed some more ships with my strikes on Vladivostok port.

[seydlitz_slith]

Just in case you think that the brown sub icons in the hex with the KB and nearby are sitting by idly, I am picking up at least one sub trying to get through my ASW screen to the carriers every turn, usually at night. There are so many that I am not even bothering to move the KB around. Instead we are staying in the hex and letting the subs come to us. Needless to say I have 4-6 DDs protecting each carrier and some pure ASW groups working nearby. I also have Chitose and Chiyoda flying all seaplanes on ASW every turn. He may get a shot off, but so far my screens are so thick that he hasn't seen anything but destroyers....

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ASW attack near Nakhodka at 113,49

Japanese Ships
DD Natsugumo
DD Yukaze
DD Akatsuki

Allied Ships
SS ShCh-122, hits 1



ShCh-122 diving deep .......
DD Yukaze fails to find sub and abandons search...
DD Akatsuki fails to find sub, continues to search......
DD Akatsuki fails to find sub, continues to search......
DD Akatsuki attacking submerged sub .......
DD Akatsuki fails to find sub, continues to search......
DD Akatsuki fails to find sub, continues to search......
DD Akatsuki attacking submerged sub .......
Escort abandons search for sub...

[seydlitz_slith]

In other news,
I pre-empted his counter attack at Spassk-Dalniy by the units that I had kicked out of there earlier. Assisted by Vals and kates fromthe KB, my three Tank units shock attacked the units before they had the chance to attack, and kicked them back out of the hex for the second time in a week.

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Ground combat at Spassk-Dalniy (114,44)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 2808 troops, 0 guns, 300 vehicles, Assault Value = 144

Defending force 5475 troops, 55 guns, 13 vehicles, Assault Value = 78

Japanese adjusted assault: 157

Allied adjusted defense: 41

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 70 (34 destroyed, 36 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
2133 casualties reported
Squads: 27 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 115 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 14 (5 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (14 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 4


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:...
3rd Tank Regiment...
5th Tank Regiment...
9th Tank Regiment...
...
Defending units:...
202nd Airborne Brigade...
4th/152nd PVO AA Battalion...
1st Red Banner Army...
32nd VVS Base Force...

[seydlitz_slith]

Finally, Here is an example of why the American torpedoes are not working.... We have captured the scientists working on the "philadelphia experiment" and can make our ships invisible at will.

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ASW attack near Taytay at 72,77

Japanese Ships
PB Chosa Maru
DMS W-6
LSD Shinshu Maru
AK Kyushu Maru
xAP Naminoue Maru
xAP Palau Maru
xAP Kasado Maru
xAP Miike Maru
xAK Ryoyo Maru
xAK Fushimi Maru
xAK Mogamigawa Maru
xAK Nako Maru
xAK Kogyo Maru
xAK Aobasan Maru
xAK Arima Maru
E Shimushu
PB Sozan Maru
PB Eiko Maru

Allied Ships
SS Perch



Perch diving deep .......
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search......
PB Sozan Maru fails to find sub and abandons search...
PB Eiko Maru fails to find sub, continues to search......
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search......
PB Eiko Maru fails to find sub and abandons search...
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search......
E Shimushu attacking submerged sub .......
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search......
Escort abandons search for sub...

[LST Express]

I must say, if ever I hear of another Seydlitz aar I'll have to come a running! Nice work!