Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

6/23/42 and 6/24/42
 
On D-Day eve for the invasion of Port Blair, an update about what else is going on around the map (of which, I should point out, the situation in China is by far the most significant).
 
Operation Bethel Church:  The Japanese carrier TF withdrew.  It seems that Miller's objective was to score a hit against the shipping at Efate.  I hope they're gone for good, but that's not likely.  While awaiting two more TFs carrying Marine regiments to make their way from Pago Pago, the Luganville amphibious TFs that were just NW of Noumea will jink east.  In a few more days I'll send the bombardment TF back in.  CV Wasp is near Tahiti and in all probability will join the Luganville invasion group.
 
Subwars:  Miller has vectored all his subs toward New Caledonia.  Ro-65, I-6, and I-16 were all sighted and attacked.  I think RO-65 might've been sunk.  Over near Colombo, I-169 damaged a TK that could still make port, and I-170 is also hanging around.  Flying Fish put a torpedo into a big TK near Davao.
 
DEI:  Ambon fell, but Malang continues it's futile stand.
 
Burma:  I'm reading posts by other players that it is possible for the Allies to hold Burma.  I just don't see it - at least not against an experienced Japanese player.  Q-Ball also withdrew from Burma in his game with Cuttlefish, so he apparently agrees.  In my game, Miller has Hiryu's Zeros here and they flew LRCAP over an engineer unit.  I had a bunch of RAF bombers vectored there and the Japanese ate them alive.
 
China Air:  Carnage and mayhem.  I had a goodly assortment of fighters - two Hurricane, two AVG, one small Chinese - stationed and well-rested at Sian.  Miller sent several groups of Oscars that I figured would get eaten alive.  The opposite occurred.  All of the Allied fighter squadrons were decimated.  That's bad news because (1) there aren't supplies in China to replace losses, (2) even good fighters aren't making a difference in China; and (3) Miller has been strategic bombings for months now and has already finsihed off my front-line cities.  Now he's turning to the rear areas - Sian and Kunming.  My supply situation is already atrocious and will only get worse.
 
China Ground:  I've just discovered that putting troops on reserve status DOES NOT prevent them from taking casualties.  Back-to-back bombardments by five Japanese artillery units at Loyang inflicted 500 casualties each time.  I have 1200 AV at Loyang behind four forts, but they won't hold long.  Once Loyang falls, that threatens Nanyangs flank.  So Miller will likely be in position to lay siege to Sian in a few weeks.  (Elsewhere, the Chinese MLR remains stout - Changsha, Hengyang, Kweilin, Liuchow).
 
China Broke:  It may be the Allied commander in this game that is screwing up China, but my honest assessment is that the game in China is completely out of whack and probably broken.  Supplies stink.  Airforce stinks.  Ground troops stink.  Casualties wildly disproportionate.  Bases out in open terrrain easily outflanked (Nanyang).  Japanese infantry and artillery greatly superior.  Japanese aircraft greatly superior.  Allied fighters in 1942 short-legged; any fighters that go to front- line bases can't be repaired or moved when damaged due to low supplies and IJ ability to shut down airfields at will.  No ability to protect vital industries in rear areas.  Any Japanese player can destroy China (or most of it) if he wishes to do so, brings in artillery, and commits enough aircraft to rule the skies, shut down industry and airbases, and destroy supplies.  I'm holding on in China at the moment, but it's very grim.
 
P.S.  Why Miller is employing five artillery units at Loyang when he only has three infantry divisions present, seemingly in violation of the house rule he just announced and self-imposed, I do not know.
 
Aleutians:  Build up of bases continues.  SigInt regarding Paramushiro continues.  Allied troops continue to congregate at Seattle.  But I won't be able to schedule D-Day until the transports and carriers currently working around Luganville are freed up and can move to the West Coast.  I have some hope that the operation can get underway by early to mid August.
 
CenPac:  It looks like there is little if any threat to Tahiti, Pago Pago, Suva, Noumea, Palmyra, and Christmas Islands.   Miller has taken too many transport losses and too many of his carriers were damaged to permit him to go on the offensive.  I'm trying to move forward a bit - just landed a Marine CD unit at Wallis Island and recently landed a Marine CD at Canton Island.

SoPac:  Small fuel stocks at Auckland and Pago Pago, slightly more at Tahiti, some at Christmas Island.  My tankers are working overtime, but I'm not making any headway.
 
OZ:  Supply levels outstanding (one-half million at Sydney and hundreds of thousands at Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth).  Fuel is a problem everywhere except Perth.
 
Summary:  The Allied situation is good everywhere but China.  In China things are awful.

[SuluSea]

Just want to say liking the pace of your operations and enjoying the AAR.



Good luck going forward.

P.S. Why Miller is employing five artillery units at Loyang when he only has three infantry divisions present, seemingly in violation of the house rule he just announced and self-imposed, I do not know.

Are you bound by these rules as well. I'm not as experienced as many in this forum but it seems to me that it doesn't take as much artillery to unbalance China as opposed to the artillery that will be needed to inflict casualties on well dug in/ good experienced/ well supplied troops later on for the allies.

[Chickenboy]

Message deleted....

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

DEI:  Ambon fell, but Malang continues it's futile stand.

Burma:  I'm reading posts by other players that it is possible for the Allies to hold Burma.  I just don't see it - at least not against an experienced Japanese player.  Q-Ball also withdrew from Burma in his game with Cuttlefish, so he apparently agrees.  In my game, Miller has Hiryu's Zeros here and they flew LRCAP over an engineer unit.  I had a bunch of RAF bombers vectored there and the Japanese ate them alive.

Canoerebel,

I would venture that these exploits are against the AI. I've seen some recitations of victory in Burma against the AI. I have held Java against the AI for a long, long time too (until I got tired of the science fiction game that was play against the AI prior to patch II).

A human player is unlikely to put all into repeated headlong shock attacks into fortified defenders at Pegu. Experienced IJA players will opt for envelopment and river crossings away from the MLR plus or minus paradrop attacks with follow up infantry airlift to skirt the Pegu blockade.

[Q-Ball]

RE: China, I think a reasonable House Rule, which is in force in both my games, is that there is no CITY bombing until late 1943. CITY attacks are still too potent, and it's too easy for the Japanese to annihilate Chinese industry. The Japanese get a little break in return in Burma, where it's also pretty easy for the RAF to torch Magwe and Rangoon. I think the Japanese should be limited to limiting Chinese supply the old fashioned way, i.e. taking bases.

The other element is to impose some artillery limits. With those two things in place, you'll still lose ground as China, but not enough to really threaten existence.

[Canoerebel]

I was holding my own in China until the Artillery Death Star made its appearance.  Now that Miller's blasted a hole in my MLR, he's created a crisis that has made the already difficult supply/strategic bombing/abysmal fighter situation much worse.
 
I was the one that urged that we refrain from House Rules - both for convenience and to sort of test the game's limits to see how things work.  So I'm not going to say anything to Miller.  He'll just have to evaluate the situation and if he ultimately decides to recommend some house rules we'll discuss it then.

[Q-Ball]

Let's not forget, it's very difficult to get China "Right" from a design standpoint. To really do it, garrison requirements for the Japanese would have to triple, Allied Chinese units would ignore any order issued 90% of the time, Communist and KMT troops couldn't be in the same hex without fighting, and angry messages from Stillwell would constantly pop up on your OPS report, along with a request for 100,000 more supplies (20% of which would be diverted to a secret bank account).

In WITP, some players used Chinese troops to invade Sumatra, or conquered parts of China, in others depending on the Mod the Chinese were rolled, so it was kind of all over the map. Certainly using Chinese troops as SRA Invasion forces was way out of line. Those days are probably over.

[ckammp]

RE: LCUs in reserve taking casualties-
 
My understanding of the manual (8.2.1.1, pg.185) is units in reserve will not take casualties from combat or bombardment IF at least one unit in the hex is in combat mode. Reading back thru your posts, you seemed to imply you were putting ALL units at Loyang in reserve status. If true, perhaps putting one of your units in combat mode will prevent the others from taknig casualties. The one in combat might not last long, but might buy enough time to help your other units. 

[Canoerebel]

6/25/42 and 6/26/42
 
Operation Shoestring:  D-Day for the invasion of Port Blair was the 25th and things immediately went awry with the Japanese administering a terrifc spanking.  First, RO-34 put several torpedoes into one of my transports.  Also, my amphibious ships arrived at Port Blair ahead of the bombardment TF.  A PG found a stout Japanese CA/CL TF waiting and promptly sacrificed herself.  For some reason, the IJN TF then withdrew rather than mixing it up with the unescorted amphibious ships, but it really didn't matter.  Miller says he had detected the approaching ships the previous day.  He loaded up his airfields with Bettys and Sallys and they lit into everything in sight, sinking all but one or two of the transports and hammering the combat ships, which for some reason were one hex from Port Blair.  BB Ramilles took five TTs (damage is 37 70 1 0), BB Resolution took several (14 70 0 0), and several cruisers were pummeled: CL Capetown (20 74 29 0) and CA Devonshire (43 88 52 2).  The stricken ships will have to run the gauntlet of Japanese subs on the way back to Ceylon.  Make no mistake - this is a terrible defeat.  Miller did well and I did poorly.  But I learned not to do that again.
 
China:  Thanks for the tip, ckammp.  It's too late to try your suggestion at Loyang because the city is doomed.  Back-to-back deliberate attacks by the Japanese at 3:1 and 2:1 odds dropped forts from 4 to 2 and inflicted 6685 casualties while taking just 1675.  Loyang is toast and once the Japanese take it I have to evacuate Nanyang too.  I've started some of the units to Sian and to the "bad-road' city to the south.  Miller continues to strategic bomb and has decimated the Allied fighters.  China is a shambles. 
 
Subs:  I-174 finished off the damaged TK making for Colombo.  Narwhal put a torpedo into an AK at Baker Island.
 
Port Royal:  The Allied ships will continue steaming east.  The loading of the Marine regiments at Pago Pago is going agonizilingly slowly.  CV Wasp will make Pago Pago within two days.

[Canoerebel]

6/27/42 and 6/28/42
 
Operation Shoestring:  Miller's stout combat TF (about five CAs with CLs and DDs) went hunting and found BB Resolution and CL Capetown, sending both to the bottom.  Bettys from Rabaul applied the coup-de-grace to CA Devonshire.  I-159 took care of DD Encounter.  BB Ramilles has a slight chance of making it home if Miller's roaming combat TF and/or subs don't pick her off.  All in all a miserable performance by the Allies.
 
Operation Bethel Church:  It looks as if Miller has extracted his aircraft and there is no signs of organized opposition as the Allied ships steam slowly NE awaiting the transport ships from Pago Pago to rendezvous, which will take a few more days.  The bombardment TF will head into Luganville tonight hoping to ensure that the airfield is shut down.  These ships will then retire quickly to Noumea, re-provision, and rejoin the invasion TF.  If all goes well with the invasion TF, I may move the carriers north past Luganville next turn and send some ships to Vana Lueva, an Allied controlled dot hex, to unload.   By the time those tasks are accomplished, the Marine reinforcements and CV Wasp should be present and the invasion will proceed.  I *think* Miller is looking at Luganville as a nice little speed bump that is allowing him to slow the Allied advance while he concentrates on the preparing the Solomons, but that suits me.
 
Subwars:  Silversides put a TT into an AK at Howland Island.  I haven't sent any subs to the Sikhalin region, though I have been tempted to do so.  I don't want to do anything to excite Miller's suspicions in NoPac if I can avoid it.
 
DEI:  Malang finally fell.  The only base of consequence left to the Allies is Lautem.
 
Burma:  Miller crossed the river a hex south of my fortified base at Schewbo.  He has 12 units there now while my garrison is just 450 AV behind two forts.  After mulling my options for a few turns, I've issued orders for my guys to vacate the base.  No rearguard action is needed any longer and I'd rather these troops retire into India (and Akyab) in good condition.
 
China:  Loyang fell quickly and decisively, the Chinese units are ruined, and I'll wait a few days to see which way Miller moves before I make a decision about evacuating Nanyang.  I hinted to Miller that strategic bombing and Artillery Death Stars had made a wreck of China.  He agreed, but made no mention of halting strategic bombing to allow China a chance to stand.  Honestly, though, it's probably too late to prevent him from taking China by sheer force if he wishes to do so.
 
Operation Port Royal:  Two Marine CD units have been prepping for Paramushiro and Onnekotan for several weeks.  They are now embarking on transports and heading to Seattle.
 
Miller and I should get in several turns today.
 
 

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

I hope you don't mind my perspective on how I might interpret some of these goings on, were it my game?

As Allies in WiTP, I would consider the loss of two invasion TFs, complete with infantry-laden ships as a clear sign that I was pushing too fast. Until I could promise and maintain overwhelming air cover (either by CV LRCAP or LBA) over the invasion fleet, it was too early to expose them to harm.

This sounds harsh-and it's not meant to be-IRL, such disastrous shoestring efforts would have likely cost someone their command. In these two examples, with your staggering naval losses, there have probably been 10,000+ men drown (2 regiment equivalents plus support plus naval SCTF losses). Clearly Miller has the ability to hit you very hard when you overextend.

I think you should slow down a bit. Wait for LR fighter support (P-38s are just a couple months away, eh?), consolidate the bases you do have, improve your supply and fuel picture, upgrade ships and increase LCU preparation for various objectives. Marshall your strength for meaningful offensives that are integral to your 1943 general offensive. Build airfields for the arrival of more of your heavy bombers and concentrate them to plaster your opponent's airfields with LR fighter escort. You probably can't accomplish these things now, but soon...soon...

Until then, keep the faith, sir! Stiff upper lip and all that.

[Chickenboy]

How are you set for transport a/c in the Indian / Burma theatre? Here's what I'm thinking:

Miller is likely going to push you back in China to Chungking, with or without his interpretation of your gentleman's agreement re: artillery. If he's still strategically bombing your Chinese cities to dust, I'd focus on getting some decent aircover to China. Doing this would involve starting "hump" transportation to Western China and drawing available supply to Chungking. Treespider has a method of 'walking' supply towards and across China by alternatively increasing and decreasing requested supply in bases-you may want to PM him for details.

Fighter CAP doesn't take a ton of supply to support. You will likely be able to support CAP in and around Chungking if you get sufficient transport a/c flying the hump to build some supply levels in Western China and Chungking. If you start making his strategic bombing painful by costing him a lot of pilots and airframes, he may discontinue it or pare it back. You're going to have to dissuade him from this before he starts bombing your remaining LCUs in Chungking.

Other than the AVG (which has to withdraw in a few of your game days), what fighter assets do you have in East India / Burma that could serve to help in China?

Earlier in this thread, Treespider indicated that you may wish to break your Chinese defenders out of the cities where they are being wholesale slaughtered. There's lots of rail lines and roads that the IJA need for movement of LCUs and supplies. On another thread, Miller confessed to having to dump supply into China. Good. Make him dump MORE in there by losing the efficiencies of rail and road supply transfer. Having even weakened Chinese units sitting on roads or rails will disrupt supply to Miller's forwardmost units. You may see more benefit to this than having them vaporize under LCU assault or artillery bombardment.

Alright, 'nuff said already. Best wishes and hold fast!

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, you're right and no offense taken.  My performance of late is appalling.    I would be sacked as a commander.  I'm still getting acquainted with capabilities - sometimes pushing too hard, sometimes maybe not hard enough (I haven't used my air power very well in India, Burma, China).
 
I am trying to get my ducks in a row.  I can't imagine any more big operations in the immediate future other than Operation Bethel Church, which has full carrier support.  After that, the next big operation will be in NoPac in a month or six weeks.  That is "intended" to be a surprise operation with carrier support.  If SigInt suggests that Miller thinks something is up, then I'll probably cancel the op.  But the plan is to make him think the next op will be against New Guines, the Santa Cruz Islands, or the Solomons.
 
I learned something else.  I had a big bombardment TF set to hit Luganville from just seven or eight hexes distant.  Over a two day turn, there's no question that force would go in.  For some reason the force refused to go.  Apparently the presence of numerous enemy subs combined with "safe" settings (I forgot to change those) persuaded my guys to chicken out.  Yet another thing to bear in mind when I'm issuing orders.
 
 

[Altaris]

Regarding China and reserve status, here's the gist of what I found in my testing a few weeks ago:

1) When bombarded and units are on Reserve, the enginge automatically (e.g., no land check) pulls enough units into Combat status to make the attacker:defense AV ratio 2:1. So, for example, if you have 5 units of 100 AV on reserve/defense, and you are bombarded by 400 AV, 2 of those units would pull out of reserve and into combat mode. The rest remain on reserve and do not take casualties on bombardment. But casualties are reduced porportionately to number of units in reserve. Using same testing numbers as above for example, if I had my 5 100 AV units on combat/defend against the 400 AV bombard, let's say I was taking 1000 casualties a day. If I put 4 units on reserve and 1 on combat, when the bombard began, 1 of the reserve units would be put on combat mode (to make the 2:1 odds), so basically two units took the bombard hit... BUT, the overall casualties were roughly 400, 40% of what they were with all 5 on combat mode. So not sure exactly how the bombardment is calculated, but the more units you have on combat mode, the more casualties you take, even against the same sized force.
2) The problem with putting all units on reserve, though, is that if a Deliberate or Shock attack comes off, then the LCU's must pass a land check to participate in the battle... which is bad for the Chinese. Casualties on the reserve units weren't too bad though if the battle was lost, but of course this is a really bad situation if it's a fortified base you're trying to hold. So if there's any risk of a Deliberate or Shock attack, you need to leave enough units on Combat mode to hold the base against the attackers.
3) Probably best to always put at least 1 unit on combat mode, as it's guaranteed at least 1 unit will be pulled from reserve to meet the 2:1 odds against a bombardment, and at least you can choose which one it is this way. Not sure what happens if you put them all in reserve, I always tested with at least 1 in combat mode. Potentially could cause the engine to revert all of them back to combat mode.

My overall opinion on these findings is that it doesn't really change China's situation in the long run, but it could help delay bombardment effects by cycling which units are taking bombardment damage. The real problem is that you're playing rock-paper-scissors by leaving units on reserve; if it's a bombardment, you're taking lower losses, but if it's a deliberate or shock attack, you've lost valuable defenders on the defense.

I agree that the Chinese situation is borked ATM, but I don't necessarily think there's anything wrong with the way Chinese infantry are modeled... they stunk IRL as well. I personally think the best fix is to increase the garrison costs of Chinese bases as a way to simulate the need for Japanese forces to be kept in the rear, and increase the supply costs of artillery bombardments. In such a way, Japan couldn't bring forth huge artillery forces because they'd lack adequate infantry support. But that's just my 2c from my limited experience so far.

[Chickenboy]

Very interesting re: use of the "Reserve" command, Altaris. Thanks for the play testing.

I'm not sure that increasing the garrison cost for the IJA will make that much of a difference. IIRC, I'm getting roughly 50PP daily as IJ supreme imperial commander in my PBEMs. At that rate, I can buy out a regiment from Kwantung every 7-8 days. With AV north of 150, this is sufficient to garrison most medium-large cities. Obviously, the allied player cannot afford to lose a major city every 7-8 days in China.

The garrison requirements for the IJ player aren't the most efficient bottleneck for easing the pain of the Allies in China. It's got to be supply.

[Altaris]

Yeah, garrison requirements alone wouldn't fix the issue, I agree, but it would definitely help. Far easier to risk putting half a 1500 AV force on reserve if the attacking infantry is only 750 AV or so, rather than 2000.

[Chickenboy]

Yes, but the IJA starts off with something between 11,000-12,000 AV in Kwantung. The requirement to prevent Russian activation is 8,000 AV. So, the Japs can buy out 3,000 AV over time from Kwantung. If they don't buy out artillery and BFs (say, for example, because of some house rule limiting artillery numbers used in China) then they can buy out infantry. They should be able to buy up the available surplus within about a year.

Also, in terms of garrison requirements, the Chinese puppet troops continue to gain strength with resting, preparation and replacements / reinforcements. The IJA gets a large number of these units that start the game at about 50% of their potential AV. As they fill out and rest, you will have more and more of these units with increasingly large garrison AVs without paying any PP. Since the garrison requirements don't change over time, more and more of these Chinese puppet troops can be freed from Nanking / Shanghai whereabouts to garrison other regions in the Chinese North and West. They're not worth much in a stand up fight, but they do a bang up job at garrison duty, freeing up "real" IJA divisions for the heavy lifting.

[veji1]

I remember that in Admiral laurent's AAR in the WITP Section he had a rule where every japanese occupied city had to be linked to at least one other city by a string of units so that the supply line was "protected". I seem to recall that the requirement was something like 10 AV or maybe 30. He basically had to use all the mongolian cav units and the smaller independent units for that job.

I just think that in China every non occupied japanese held hex should have a test to revert to Chinese control every turn, or at least to have chinese units pop up. This kind of tweak + Supply requirements for arty should go a long way to solving the issue...

[Canoerebel]

I've just sent the turn for July 3/4 to Miller and things could get hot...or not.  A Japanese carrier TF is midway between Lunga and Luganville.  If it keeps coming a big carrier battle is going to ensue.  The Allies have five US and two RN CVs.  I don't think Miller realizes Wasp has arrived.  I don't want to face both LBA and carrier-based air, so I've ordered a stout bombardment TF led by BBs North Carolina and PoW to hit the base tonight and then retire toward Noumea to reprovision.
 
I think the odds are that Miller will withdraw his carriers.  If he does, or if the Allies emerge in good shape from whatever ensues these next two turns, then the following two turns transports will peel off to unload troops at Vana Lueva and Efate.  Then, the following two turns, the invasion of Luganville commences.  Three Marine regiments are going in.  Prep will range from 60% to 100%.
 
I'll post in more detail later.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Chickenboy, you're right and no offense taken.  My performance of late is appalling.    I would be sacked as a commander.  I'm still getting acquainted with capabilities - sometimes pushing too hard, sometimes maybe not hard enough (I haven't used my air power very well in India, Burma, China).

If a few comments from a lowly AI player may be permitted . . .

I'm in early Dec. 1942 in my game, and I can tell you that the Summer of 42 (no, not the movie) was the worst period of the game. I'd been kicked in the crotch for six months, and nothing was working. Crap fighters, IJN surface task forces with laser range finders, rebellions all over Burma and east India, etc.

It's going to get better.

When the P-38s show up your world will change, especially in the Solomons. You seem to have fantastic supply loads in Oz, and they will let you have your way when you get range and altitude on your side. Also, you'll get Seabees soon, many, many battalions. They are cheap to lift, and very quick in their work. The early war construction units can't compare. Your subs still have faulty torpedoes, but experience levels go up with every attack. In December I'm getting about a 30% success rate, and a lot of experienced skippers are re-attacking the same target twice in the same turn if the first torpedoes fail. I'm weeks away from the Great Torpedo Healing, and soon you will be too. Use them right and Miller won't have supplies to waste whacking Chinese peasants.

Do you have a squadron of S-boats out of Dutch Harbor with their own tender? Historic, and they are great for guarding the channels out of the northern Japanese HIs and Kuriles, all in deep water. Tight patrol zones are possible, and short runs back for re-supply.

You haven't, that I've seen, posted a VP report as you used to do with John. Aside from the angst over the artillery model in China (which I'm not qualified to discuss, except to say the under-supply-consumption argument seems to me to have legs), is China really hurting you? Even against the AI I look at China as a strategic sponge for Japanese supplies and armament points. Chinese troops come back, for free. Every step the Japanese take north eats up supply they can't use in the Gilberts and Marianas. I've also, as others have said, moved a lot of Chinese units into the bush and mountains. Terrain in central Asia matters. The cities have the VPs, but out in the countryside, even with 8:1 attacks against, the Chinese infantry can bleed Japan. They also move pretty fast and can get in around behind. If he reacts, good. He's reacting to you, not the other way around.

You're a very good strategic player, but maybe here you're getting too tactical too early. Don't worry about Port Blair; sink his AKs and tankers. Unless VPs are critical, forget about China. As others have said, build up ports and airfields, use Seabees, build supplies, and above all, do your upgrades. The ASW ones alone are magical for the Allies, and the AA installs on the merchies only take 8 days and make them their own "strategic sponges." They may sink, but they might take 2-3 precious Japanese pilots with them.

All of this is elementary and you're beyond it, so long as you remember it, and don't lose sight of the ball. It's summer 1942. "You have not yet begun to fight."

Enjoying the reading. Back into my corner.