Loitering Japenese Carriers

[wg335910]

Can anyone tell me why Japanese Carriers Loiter off Northern Oahu well after December 7th? Historically by December 8th they were well on their way towards Wake Island. The way this simulation runs now, I can't move anything out of Pearl Harbor without being attacked.The Japanese carriers seem to just sit there for about three days. This makes any Wake Island re-supply impossible. Which is historical wrong. And it makes Wake a write off. Which again, is historically wrong. Thanks

[Lifer]

Welcome to Andy Mac's AI scripts. There are thirteen scripts that range from historical type of expansion to very aggressive. There is a thread in Tech Support about the scripts where you can move certain scripts to a safe place to get a more historical feel. OTOH, getting the script you draw will keep you on your toes vs the AI.

Greg

[Nemo121]

The AI's job isn't necessarily to do things the historical way., It is, at least in part, designed to provide unpredictability and challenge.

[Sheytan]

As I understand it, if you play the Dec 8th scenario. They depart as scheduled. I may be wrong but that was my understanding.

ORIGINAL: wg335910

Can anyone tell me why Japanese Carriers Loiter off Northern Oahu well after December 7th? Historically by December 8th they were well on their way towards Wake Island. The way this simulation runs now, I can't move anything out of Pearl Harbor without being attacked.The Japanese carriers seem to just sit there for about three days. This makes any Wake Island re-supply impossible. Which is historical wrong. And it makes Wake a write off. Which again, is historically wrong. Thanks

[wg335910]

For scenario No.1, I've removed scenario scripts 7 through 12. No Change.

[wg335910]

If the AI doesn't work under a historical analog, then this is just a kid's toy. The first rule of wargaming is cover the history accurately.

[Andy Mac]

There is a chance that the Ai will linger its unpredictable it does not linger on every start in fact ift will do so substantially less than 50% of the time and this aspect of the AI is independent of the scripts.

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: wg335910

If the AI doesn't work under a historical analog, then this is just a kid's toy. The first rule of wargaming is cover the history accurately.

[:)]

Possibly

OTOH, most PBEM Japanese players will stick around for a couple of days and pound the place, just as Nagumo's staff advised.

[findmeifyoucan]

If the AI plays strictly to history then you would have the advantage of hind sight. The thing is to be able to adapt to the changing of events. There are nasty things that the Americans can do to the Japanese if they decide to stick around Pearl Harbour. For one it gives the American Carriers free reign to do what they will around Wake and the Marshall islands to just name a few!! There are more important things in this war than Wake Island. )

[Feltan]

ORIGINAL: wg335910

If the AI doesn't work under a historical analog, then this is just a kid's toy. The first rule of wargaming is cover the history accurately.

Says you.

The game is quite capable of being a mimic to history. The units are there. The capabilities are there. If one went to the trouble in a PBEM to move every unit to its historical location at the historical time, I am pretty sure you could get a fair approximation of a blueprint historical outcome.

But that isn't the point. No one wants to watch an AE movie rerun of WWII in the Pacific.

Regards,
Feltan

[findmeifyoucan]

Exactly, if you want to see that go watch a War Movie. This game is historical. You start with all the historical forces that were available at the time and it is up to you what to do with it. Though I do believe in starting with the surprise attack on Pearl Harbour otherwise it is not really historical. After all that was the reason America entered the war. Who is to say if the Japanese Carrier fleet had attacked the Philipines instead of Pearl on whether the Americans would have even entered the war in the first place. Rumours have it that the American High Command knew of the Pearl Harbour attack in advance but let it go as they felt that America would not declare war otherwise.

[xj900uk]

That's been hotly debated ever since but no actual proof that Washington knew the IJN would hit Pearl Harbor has ever come forth.
For what it's worth,  the KB which USNI knew consisted of 6 carriers had disappeared completely from the radar, although Yamamoto had set up a signalling system in the HI with a fictious force to confuse the Allies.  An attack was generally expected, particularly given that diplomatic moves had hopelessly broken down and also USNI had decoded the mega 14-part document long before the Japanese ambassador's office had, which for the first time gave a specific time (1 pm Washington time, which was 8 am PH).  Conversely a warning did go out to all US forces in the Pacific & SE Asia (although PH's was not handed to Kimmel until the closing stages of the attack, just before 10 am,  it was a bit superfluous by then) telling everyone of the time mentioned and 'to be on their guard'.  But there was never ever any specific mention of PH as the target - everyone actually thought it was going to be the Phillipines.
It is an interesting point of conjecture if the IJN had just put everything into a push in SE Asia & hit the DEI, Malaysia and Phillipines if Roosevelt would have been able to persuade The house to declare war (ie to prop up European interests and 'colonies' in SE Asia) if this had been their sole opening shot.  Particularly as Plan Orange had been played for many years & debated/wrangled back & forth long & hard until the US had finally convinced themselves that yes, the PI would fall to a determined Japanese attack come what may from the US...

[findmeifyoucan]

Actually you are mostly correct.
It wasn't that they disappeared from radar really. It was more a hole in the American radar net about halfway inbetween Midway and Dutch Harbour. I think it was about 40 miles but enough to allow the Japanese Carrier Force to slip by and on to PH undetected!! Of course it didn't help either that everyone at Pearl was partying the night before and sleeping in the next morning with hangovers. LOL

If PH never happened why would the Americans declare war? They didn't when Britian was getting the crap bombed out of it or even when France was defeated in 2 weeks. At that time even Russia was getting slaughtered in Europe by the German armed forces. It just was not looking good for the Allies and the good ol USA was still sitting on their asses with the hands tied behind their backs by the American populice. )

[jomni]

ORIGINAL: wg335910

If the AI doesn't work under a historical analog, then this is just a kid's toy. The first rule of wargaming is cover the history accurately.

Well if you play PBEM, you'll probably get similar strategies.

The point of this is to make the game more exciting and more challenging.
If you know history then you know how to beat it.
If someone plays unhistorical then you are forced to think.
My 2 cents.

[findmeifyoucan]

Yeah, this game is not for kids where you just sit back and watch a movie. This game is actually for smart people! People who if given the same historical forces to begin with may be able to change the historical outcome of the war! Whether it be defeating the Japanese in the summer of 1943 or after taking over Australia and Pearl Harbour invading the USA and taking over LA and SanFransisco. LOL

Question is can you be a better Admiral than Yamato or Nimitz?? )

[eMonticello]

ORIGINAL: xj900uk
For what it's worth, the KB which USNI knew consisted of 6 carriers had disappeared completely from the radar, although Yamamoto had set up a signalling system in the HI with a fictious force to confuse the Allies.

ORIGINAL: findmeifyoucan
Actually you are mostly correct.
It wasn't that they disappeared from radar really. It was more a hole in the American radar net about halfway in between Midway and Dutch Harbour. I think it was about 40 miles but enough to allow the Japanese Carrier Force to slip by and on to PH undetected!!

I suspect xj900uk was being figurative since the only SCR-270 Air Search radar systems outside of CONUS were at Oahu, Clark Field, and Panama Canal. Of course, if the Allies had an OTH-B radar, they might have picked up KB several days prior to Dec 7 since it had decent detection capability during the winter months when the ionosphere wasn't acting up.

But, A/N FPS-118 and it's billions of dollars cost over-runs were still 45 years in the future.

[xj900uk]

Thanks,  when I meant 'from the radar', I didn't mean literally some radar screen somewhere!  in the early 40's radar technology was still in its infancy and had very limited range,  most of USNI's err intelligence gathering came from decoding messages,  coast watchers and listening in on radio signalsthat were accidentally bounced off the ionosphere.  In the end I believe they did pick up briefly the radio signals between HI and Yamamoto's fictious naval force just off-shore, but were unable to interpret them.

[eMonticello]

This does remind me to recommend a great book on the history of American intelligence during WW2: Combined Fleet Decoded by John Prados. Folks might recognize the name if they played his boardgame, Third Reich.

[mjk428]

ORIGINAL: pompack

ORIGINAL: wg335910

If the AI doesn't work under a historical analog, then this is just a kid's toy. The first rule of wargaming is cover the history accurately.

[:)]

Possibly

OTOH, most PBEM Japanese players will stick around for a couple of days and pound the place, just as Nagumo's staff advised.

Nagumo's staff advised they "stick around for a couple of days"? Too bad they weren't in charge.

[Mynok]

ORIGINAL: eMonticello

This does remind me to recommend a great book on the history of American intelligence during WW2: Combined Fleet Decoded by John Prados. Folks might recognize the name if they played his boardgame, Third Reich.

Wow...had no idea he had written a book. Enjoyed playing Third Reich. It doesn't hold a candle to World in Flames, but it was certainly a fun and challenging game.