Hunting the Hibiki: Q-Ball (Allies) v Cuttlefish (Japan)

[veji1]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Once the Allies choose a major axis of advance it will always be a long, hard-fought battle.  Japan is powerful and, in this case, led by a most capable opponent.  Q-Ball faces many months, years even of difficult campaigning.

But make no mistake:  this campaign just won him the war.  It's 1942, for goodness sake, and the Japanese just found a massive, dangerous bulgeing hernea iprotruding right into their soft-underbelly.  The Allies will soon have a multitude of bases close the Japan's vital organs.  Q-Ball is right - he has many potential routes of advance now.  Lots of bases with big potential for nasty raids on the Japanese SRA.

It will take Q-Ball time to consolidate his gains, build his bases, organizie infrastucture, and fight off the inevitable Japanese counterattack, but my goodness what a position to be in!  Yes, he has a long, hard fight ahead, but he won this campaign in October 1942.

I am not sure it will take Q-ball that long. This will test the changes between WITP and AE with so many more buildable bases. If, and its my hunch, the allies can build up this network of supporting bases quickly enough they will be very very efficient very quickly.

All they have to do is channel all their new troops through this axis, whether they are Brits for Burma or US for SOPAC and CENTPAC, and blow this open big time...

The only legitimately slowing factor is the state of the planes pools. There will be fighting and good planes will bear the brunt, when there are hardly any P38 lefts and F4Fs have suffered, well you are bound to pause.

But for me the Japanese are finished by the end of 1943, ie with no fuel left, industry in shambles and their AF and Navy broken...

Let's see what Cuttlefish can muster, but this AAR and a few others show that moreso than in WITP, going for Northern OZ is a must in AE to protect all those bases in the DEI that are just too numerous to be properly defended by the japanese player.

It seems that in AE, Noumea and the Hebrides are a lot less important than in WITP, where they were THE staging point for a counterattack, while the DEI is a lot more fragile and therefore buffering it with Northern OZ almost mandatory.

[ComradeP]

Congratulations on the safe landing Q-Ball.

It does seem that this was a bit too easy. Even if both KB and the Combined Fleet had shown up, it would've been unlikely that they would have been able to sink most of your warships or invasion fleet. With the numbers you are throwing at him, you would've made it ashore no matter what, it seems. You also send lots of ships away to act as a diversion, an Allied player could also use those ships to create a far more target rich environment which will make it statistically far more unlikely that KB or the Combined Fleet will destroy even a single invasion fleet, as there would be too many targets.

Besides showing the differences between WitP and AE, this also shows that the Allies can already create a more or less unstoppable avalanche that can more or less safely land in an area where Japan is vulnerable without a lot of defensive potential and too many bases to defend or capture (looking at the map, when your forces march north-west on Flores, you'll be greeted in Dutch instead of Japanese) in late 1942, which is very early. The Japanese have no time to realistically build up the area, so further testing by other players will have to show if this tactic is going to be the textbook killing blow tactic for AE.

[Swenslim]

Finished in 1943 ??? Are you kidding ??? No allied plane until 3/44 can hit Palembang and even Balikpapan from Timor. He need to take Java to cut oil shipping from Sumatra.

[Swenslim]

Real war just begun and Japan will punish arrogant allies

[veji1]

ORIGINAL: Swenslim

Finished in 1943 ??? Are you kidding ??? No allied plane until 3/44 can hit Palembang and even Balikpapan from Timor. He need to take Java to cut oil shipping from Sumatra.

Sure but if/once his hold on Timor is secured he has now the foot in the door. Japan can't defend everything, if Cuttlefish can't retake Timor he will try to defend his hold on the DEI and mainly along a south-north line to protect Java and Borneo. with his troops there Qball will be able to widen the gap on the Celebes/Sorong interval, aiming at getting to the Jolo Sea and from there nuking Borneo and cutting to the South China sea via the south PIs.. with the battle intensifying in the DEI the Pacific will be more vulnerable and he could than elect to completely bypass SOPAC and go straight for a Central pacific route aiming at Palau to join up with his DEI attack... I recon that by early 44 he could be standing at the door of Manilla from the South of the PI and with Bases in northern Borneo, south PI effectively interdicting the South China Seas...

Maybe I am too optimistic on the Allies abilities, or underestimate the logistical strain he will be confronted with, we shall see.

Basically there are 2 major variables :
1/ Cuttlefish goes for the big battle and tries to throw him out :
1/a) succeeds, probably at a prohibitive cost and has bought time for the empire although the allies have probably used the diversion to their advantage in Burma and CENTPAC.
1/b) fails and then the Jap AF and Navy are wrecked and the allies will advance quite quickly.

2/ Cuttlefish consolidates his defenses in the area, tries to keep his fleet as a fleet in being close by, forcing the allies to strongly protect each hop and therefore advancing slowly, trying also to gently point them to areas of less vital interest for Japan, ie Celebes, South PI, hoping that all the process will be slow...

2/ is surely better than 1/b). 1/b) is game over in late 43 while maybe he can have 2/ last until mid44... I don't know, this is my guestimate at this stage.

[yubari]

Great AAR Q-Ball, very exciting for the past couple of weeks. I have to say that, barring a serious carrier battle defeat, I think this is a war winning blow for the allies. Getting maybe three or four of those airfields operational would make any Japanese counter attack suicidal, a Guadalcanal-style battle of attrition to the power of three.

[BletchleyGeek]

Thank you for taking the pain of describing your game here, it's become one of the most interesting AARs I've ever read.

And hats off to your huge operational success . Very classy

However I do disagree with viewing this operation as a major strategic victory *already* - it won't be such until you score a huge tactical success against major naval and aerial Japanese assets. However, I recall - painfully to my chagrin - from my WITP days that carrier battles between evenly matched opponents can convey catastrophically one-sided losses for either side. You're rolling on the 1:1 column, so to speak. What are the player options in WITP:AE to increase the odds of avoiding such catastrophic results?

I also wonder what would be your "B Plan" in case Cuttlefish manages to decisively claim naval and/or aerial superiority in the area. Are you considering this a "do or die" gamble? What are your plans if disaster strikes the combined CW-US forces?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Swenslim

Only problem for you will be supplying this place. When he will re-arange his forces and rebuild Makassar, Kendari, Ambon and some other bases this gonna be very hard fight for you. He will be able to sink supplying ships with Bettys and Nellys under cover of longlagged Zeroes.
And he can use around 250-300 army bombers to day-night bombings to bring Hell upon heads of this 2 divisions disrupting them completly.

And he has little advantage - all his damaged ships will have Soerabaja, Singapore, Saigon repairshipyards in there disposal.

I disagree.

He has initial advantages because of the strength of his Navy and airforce. However, he has no choice but to fight an attritional battle. Just like the Guadacanal campaign-regardless of any initial victories, he is bound to lose out. This is really the main goal of any Allied player. Keep your forces intact during the rough times and then gain a foothold that forces a battle on your terms. It is October now. The Allies might feel some pain yet but I doubt they are going to be thrown out.

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, Oct 5, 1942

FORAGER: 2 Indian Bdes reached Warazup; tommorow they will attack the empty dot base, and then move to Myiktinya. I originally planned to build an airstrip at Warazup for supply purposes, but I don't think I need to. The RR line is firmly blocked, I have cratered the airstrip at Myikinya, and there are no engineers there, just an Infantry Regt. (IJA Inf Regts have no organic engineers). Thus, there is no way in or out of Myikinya, so I need merely to march there with 400 AV or so to take it.

REPRISAL: I am closing out OPERATION REPRISAL, as we have met all our objectives. The objective was to get troops and base forces ashore at several points in the Southern DEI. This is accomplished. That isn't to say we are here to stay, but now our operation moves from less a single event, to a long campaign of building and staying where we are.

All our combat forces are ashore. I have unloaded everything I need to at Koepang, so this should be a major airbase in short order. I am more worried about the smaller bases like Lomblen and Maumere, which are not secure. Unloading there is going very slowly, as well as airstrip building. They are also very exposed to IJN surface attack. I expect the IJN to intervene shortly at either Maumere or Lomblen, probably Maumere.

Today, 40 Bettys and a Zero escort attacked my CVs off Lomblen. We put up a substaintial Cap and shot down 29 Bettys; no hits were scored. We lost 20 Wildcats in the exchange, so I moved the CV's back 3 hexes. I have 2 airgroups on the CVs set to LRCAP of Maumere and Waingapu. With the TBF and Wildcat losses, I do not want an engagement with KB right now. The rest of my Navy will have to fend for themselves.

Koepang is full repaired and operational. P-38s there are providing LRCAP over Maumere and Lomblen, but if KB shows up, all they will do is shoot down some Kates in return. I now have over 120 fighters there for aircover purposes. I need the base to be bigger to get some SBDs there.

I have moved RN BBs to cover the unloading at Lomblen and Maumere. They are very exposed to either surface or air attack. I have to cover the transports though or stop unloading, so I have to risk it. I am using RN BBs because several are due for withdrawl in a few months anyway. Use 'em or lose 'em!

Where is the IJN? No idea. Intel reports a DD moving to Balikpapan, that's probably some sort of forces. Might make sense to move there and top off, also I am not expecting an attack from that direction (or maybe I am now!). I'm sure I'll find out soon enough where the IJN is. The fact that I haven't seen them yet leads me to beleive that Cuttlefish is gathering a big force to swamp me all at once.

I am OK with a bloodbath as long as it's BOTH our blood. After all, the Allies can replace losses, the Japanese can't.

[Q-Ball]

October 6,7 1942

There was very little action the last couple days in the DEI. None in fact. I am mystified at this point where the IJN is. I have unloaded most ships, so if Cuttlefish strikes now, it will yield less results. I guess the IJN was really that out of position. Early on, though I don't think I could have been stopped, an attack would have at least sunk a bunch of transports and killed some troops, so that's something.

Koepang is expanding under aircover. I am building all the other bases, that now all have at least 10K in supplies and 1 Seabee Unit, plus base troops. They should all be serviceable airfields in a few days, which will improve security.

At this point, I am thinking ahead. The US 43rd Inf Div. is prepping for Kendari, and loading in San Fran. By the time it gets to DEI, which is about 1 1/2 months, should be ready. In the short-term, I am prepping 2 Australian Bdes for a landing on Dili, I just need to beat the IJA to Dili. For the most part, the next month or so will be building, consolidation, and prep for the next targets. Soon, it will be time to start planning the next operation: OPERATION HALBERD, the invasion of the Celebes.

[Fishbed]

Soon, it will be time to start planning the next operation: OPERATION HALBERD, the invasion of the Celebes.

Well... erm... I thought that would rather be operation "THIS IS SPARTA", for I highly doubt you're gonna be given the opportunity to plan for anything else than the harsh defense of Timor in the next 2 or 3 months...!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

October 6,7 1942

I am mystified at this point where the IJN is.

Gee wiz, I posted that intel for you... [;)]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Yesterday I was tempted to post here that intel had located the KB at 37d 49' 04.51" N, 122d 28' 47.56" W and let Q-Ball Google it. [:D]

[Q-Ball]

witpqs: I give up, where is that? I tried to google it, but it wouldn't take.

Fishbed: perhaps I am getting ahead of myself.....Victory Disease? [:D]

October 8/9, 1942

Where, oh where is the IJN? The World Wonders. I am surprised not to see ANY naval activity to my front off Timor. Maybe Cuttlefish is really hatching something big, who knows.

At this point, the last few convoys are unloading supplies and a couple odds and ends fragments, and that's it. I have just pulled the CV's back to Port Hedland to replace aircraft, and most of the surface ships are gone too.

Maumere and Waingapu are now Size-1 airbases and climbing, and Lomblen is not far behind. Koepang is already size-5, and with all the units there should be maxed out in a month. (which is size-9).

I have two Australian Bdes prepping for Dili; we will land in about 30 days, we need to do so before the refugees from Koepang make it there. That will secure Timor for the Allies. We are also doing some initial planning for OPERATION HALBERD, the invasion of Celebes. I will soon take an inventory of forces, and make some decisions about who goes where. Tentatively, I plan a simultaneous landing at Port Moresby; it would be very handy to open the Torres Strait. It won't be completely open until I re-take New Caledonia, but I suspect with Kendari and Port Moresby under siege, Noumea will seem pretty exposed, and probably evacuated of most combat troops.

The 43rd Inf Div is on it's way to NW Australia. The rest of the 37th should arrive in the battle area shortly, and I can also use the 32nd, which is at Sydney. I would prefer to use US formations for assaults, as I have plenty of US replacements, but AIF and UK ones are more dear.

[Grollub]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

witpqs: I give up, where is that? I tried to google it, but it wouldn't take.

SF Harbour.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

witpqs: I give up, where is that? I tried to google it, but it wouldn't take.

Sorry, I had put d ' " in to make it more human readable. Google like the format "37 49 04.51 N 122 28 47.56 W"

Better with visual impact:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=37+49+04.51+N+122+28+47.56+W&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=34.587666,79.013672&ie=UTF8&z=14

[Q-Ball]

Kido Butai is at Market and Van Ness?

Oct 10, 1942

Not much going on over Timor....very quiet in fact. The last transports have unloaded, and all bases are at least lvl 1. Troops are beginning to prep for HALBERD, the invasion of the Celebes. I hope to be firmly ashore on the Celebes by the New Year, and knocking on the door of the Southern Phillipines by mid-1943. Realistic? Maybe hubris, because I still haven't seen the IJN.

Burma: First attack tommorow at Myiktinya. We'll see if we take it. Only 1 Division, other forces are coming up.

Allied Regeneration: Check out the screenshot. Isn't this a bit insane? In my game as Japan, I have focused on destroying Allied ground units, thinking that might slow their advance. Guess not; save a cadre, and apparently you can build whole divisions instantly. The IJA can do this as well I realize, maybe not as completely.

This is a great game, though I think the fragment-regrow thing is a bit out of control

[ckammp]

re: 41st Division
 
What does your replacement pool look like?
 
Given an expected counter-attack by Cuttlefish, perhaps you should shut off replacements to the 41st for a little while; it will, after all, take a few more months to fully rebuild and be ready for combat, why not save the replacements for units about to see action? 

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Kido Butai is at Market and Van Ness?

Well, they have widened the street! [X(]

Unfortunately, the link Google provided rounded off the location for some reason. KB was actually sighted about to pass under the Golden Gate Bridge.

[Canoerebel]

Q-Ball, you've won this battle (and, consequently, the war). You're also to be commended for planning ahead to the Celebes - the Allies need to be prepared to take what they can take. But I don't think you're going to be in the Celebes comes the end of 1942 (or prepared to strike the Philippines by mid-'43). The Japanese navy is essentially untouched in the game (as is the US Navy). Since Cuttlefish is a very capable opponent, methinks you're going to have your hands full defending yourself for quite some time, and the going forward will likely be slow and bloody. Don't neglect defense - tactical and strategic - while planning your offense. You've wounded Cuttlefish's pride (so to speak) and he's going to be vewy, vewy angwy.

[Q-Ball]

ckammp: There are plenty of infantry squads in the pool, so no harm in rebuilding the 41st. I am prepping it for Noumea, I thought that would be a nice bit of revenge....

Canoe: I hear you, like I said, Victory disease. You are correct in that the IJN is unscratched. I actually fear the IJN surface forces more than the CVs in some ways; CV air melts against air oppossition, but the IJN is nasty in the dark, particularly those big friggin' cruisers that I love when I am the IJN.

Oct 11, 1942

Timor Area: Still no sign of the IJN. At this point, I have a larger airbase at Koepang; I am moving in B-24s. I have set planes today to buzz over Soerbaya, Balikpapan, Kendari, and Ambon, to see what ships are around. I received an intel report of an Inf. Regt. loaded on an AK and headed to Balikpapan, so that might be a collection point. Other than that tidbit, Cmdr. Rochfort is giving me jack on the dispositions of the IJN.

Waingapu is size-2 now, and I am moving more engineers to the area to speed up work. I have several units that are trained on NavB, so should be interesting if he pulls within range. An AIR HQ is also moving to Koepang, where I will have Avengers and the new Torp-carrying Beauforts, which are just coming on-line.

The biggest problem I have in this area is FUEL. I predicted this of course, and it's coming true. I am down to 58K fuel at Port Hedland, 38K at Perth. I have another 90K on board tankers at Port Hedland, and will be moving a bunch to Koepang. I have pulled all the fuel out of Capetown, so that place can't help me. This will continue to be a limiting factor over here, and is the main problem with an Allied offensive in this area. Supplies are not a problem, Capetown still has plenty, and I have a bunch near at hand.

I only have enough fuel reserves for one major sortie at this point. My BBs are all sitting in port right now to conserve.

Burma Campaign: Myiktyina fell today to first attack by a single Indian Division. The defenders withdrew south.

I declare FORAGER to be at an end. My objectives were to draw IJA strength, and also to capture Myiktyina. Not sure about the former, though I have now identified at least 4 divisions in Burma, the 2nd, 33rd,55th,and Imperial Gds. This campaign is now moving to a new phase: A general campaign for Northern Burma.

See the map below. I have now 6 divisions and tanks in Northern Burma. My next objective is to capture Lashio and open the Burma Road, followed by a push into the Lower Irriwaddy. I would like to grab Shwebo and force the Japanese to pull back accross the Irriwaddy completely.

The big question in all of this is Supplies. Can I get enough supplies to keep this going? I am sure you guys are interested in this questions to: Is an Allied offensive accross the jungle sustainable? We shall find out. I can airlift in supplies, but that's likely just a drop in the perverbial bucket.