Vettim89 vs Greasylake - Reversal of Fortunes

[vettim89]

14-15 December 1944

Larry tried to sneak some more TK into Brunei. LBA hit them on the 13th and then CV AIr jumped them on teh 14th. Only to be followed by this. Not fair I admit it.

Iwo is active and 4E should start to reach out and harrass Japanese shipping. Recon is started of the major Japanese bases where I hope to use Sweep/Hit tactics to eliminate as much of Larry's LBA.

[vettim89]

16-24 December 1944

Not much going on in the last few weeks. Troops approaching Dadjangas to prepare to invade Luzon. Troops have just departed Marcus heading for Iwo then Naha.

The Russians kicked the Japanese out of the mainland USSR. It appears Larry has given up on Okha as there are no longer any tranports up there.

Forts at Songora have been dropped to 7. Larry tried a Deliberate Attack at Jahore Bahru which failed miserably.

As you can see, a 1.5 to 1 ratio is well secured now. Larry and I have not discussed comntinueing beyond 1 Jan 1945 as of yet. My guess is we will not. I would like to play on for an additional month just to get Okinawa secured and the landins on Luzon accomplished. Would also like to see how far the Russians can push

[Capt. Harlock]

As you can see, a 1.5 to 1 ratio is well secured now. Larry and I have not discussed comntinueing beyond 1 Jan 1945 as of yet. My guess is we will not.

Links look pretty dark for Larry, all right. The air losses are especially murderous, and the strategic losses imply bad things about his economy.

[vettim89]

25-26 December 1944

Conversation with Larry indicates that we are looking at the last four turns of this game. Cannot say how incredible sad that makes me. Larry was a worthy oponent for my experience level and has challenged me to the end. I will recap when all is said and done but I have some final thoughts on this game. As my first PBEM, it will always hold a special place for me.

On the war front. Mersing fails to Indian Paras. The last deliberate attack at Davao came off at 57 to 1 with only two units left. Last Deliberate attack at Iwo came off at 8 to 1 but 6 units still remain. Probably put every one on attack next turn and leave thme there for the war's duration which of course will be three days.

While part of me would like to at least finish the Okinawa Op and invade Luzon, I think by then the game would be too stale. The Japanese ground forces are really the only real force to resist me. I think slogging through long sieges with endless bombardment attacks would just get old.

[vettim89]

27 December 1944

Larry e-mailed me today saying he wants to keep puching on at the slower pace we have been going. He said until the A-Bomb but I doubt he'll last that long.

And.... the Japanese came out and fought today. This attack yielded about 7 or 8 damaged AK but cost larry about 50 airframes. AK's will run for Iwo where the CAP is much stouter.

WIth this news, the plans for the Okinawa invasion are a full go. THe TF are scattered about 240-360 nm east of Iwo right now. Also the last TF's are approaching Dadjangas and we'll be heading to Luzon soon. The Russians crossed the river at both Heiho and Mushin this turn. WIll take awhile to get everybody across but Larry has some problems in that front now.

[vettim89]

28 Dec 1944 - 1 Jan 1945

Well we crossed over to 1945 and I did not get an autovictory message. Can some one explain this to me? As I read the rules autovictory comes with 4:1, 3:1, 2:1, and finally 1.5:1 margin of victory in 1942, 1943, 1944, and 1945 respectively.

Anyhow, we decided to keep punching at each other. As I was expecting the game to end I kinda pulled back into my shell a bit but now its full bore.

CENTPAC

Invasion force for Naha (Okinawa) departs Iwo next turn. There is a little fuel problem there but the 300 k in bound will solve that pretty quick. USAAF fighters swept Tokyo on the 2nd and achieved a 3 to 1 result. Problems with Chich Jima's AB only expanding at 1% a day despite the ten plus ENG units there is hindering progress. The Japanese on Iwo are slowly being ground down. The non-malarial status of this base helps a lot. I have now encountered this base expansion problem twice where an AB should be expanding at a much higher rate in spite of ample supplies and ENG.

SWPAC

Troops loading for Luzon at Dadjangas. I am sending ten ID plus ARM, ARTY, and HQ's. An Aussie ID has been lifted to Cebu to end the stalemate there. Only one Japanese unit remains at Davao and it is on the ropes. Deliberate Attack on the 2nd was 128 to 1. Once this force recovers, they will be sent to Luzon also. San Jose was taken by paras and a bunch of ENG are awaiting the supplies to load before running up there. Cagayan remains the only base of concern now as the MOUNT terrain is making it a rough go. Supplies are also an issue here and I will lift some in as soon as the Luzon op is done.

SEAC

Forts at Singora are down to 7. Commonwealth troops are continuing there slow reduction of the last Japanese concentration with supplies in Northern Malaya. There is a large stack at Kuala Lumpur but there are quite pink. A blocking force holds at Jahore Buhtar to keep the large stack at Singers from trying to breakout. Two US ID and a RCT and working up the RR from there toward Kuala Lumpur. They have been pushing three battered Japanese units up that way for some time. Indian Para's took Mersing. I am contemplating pulling them back out and taking Kuntun (sp?) just to the north which also appears empty.

USSR

The large Soviet army has engaged a large force at the base just north of Vlad (begins with an m and is about 13 or 14 letters long). Troops still crossing the river at Heiho and Mershun. Larry has renforced Hailor and I don't think I have enough to take it now with a base AS advantage of only 1800 to 1400 now. Still that is a lot of strength protecting Larry's northern flank. At Ohka, the stalemate continues. Larry is using SCTF to BOMB but they do little. A TF with over a dozen dinged up USN SS sneaked in there and left a little present for the IJN. A DD hit a mine on the 2nd and seems to be in extremis

China

Just a basic stalemate. Larry keeps pushing at Kuantung but to no avail. If I could get some more supplies in here I might be able to make some noise. Thinking about forming up a huge convoy at Aden and escorting it in with the 7th Fleet CV force to Pukhoi. I wonder what 500 K of supplies would do for Gen Cash My Check

Long Term Plans

1. Keep pushing with the Sovs. By April the reinforcement cue will scare Larry to death up here. May need to sneak a large convoy into Vlad to fuel that beast. At present the plan is to push towards Harbin. NORPAC Units are prepping for Paramishu Jima. Larry has also sucked almost every unit out of southern Sakhalin Is for the Okha op. Those two bases would be a nice addition.

2. Clear Luzon with SWPAC. At least push the Japanese up north like Mac did in RL. If SWPAC does all this with any speed, they will prep for either the Chinese east coast or Japan proper

3. Take and build up Okinawa, Amori Is, the other little Island off Japan's southern coast, the Pescadores, and finally Tsushima with CentPac.

4. Finish off the northern Malay Army and then rush south to Singers. If SEAC were to accomplish this quickly, they will either go to Indochina, Formosa, or Hong Kong. That is entirely dependent on how long the siege of Singapore may last.

5. I am considering pulling my defensive force of about 5 or 6 INF RGT's that are scattered from Pamyra to Noumea and taking either SE NG, the Marshalls or both. The Japanese units at these bases are about toast after sitting for 18 plus months unsupplied. I suspect they would go "POOF" if I hit them with any force. Esp the Marshalls has a large force tasked with AB suppression and sub interdiction

[Alfred]

vettim89,
 
Sorry for making this request as it imposes additional work upon you, but in view of your last interesting post, any chance of posting various relevant screen shots to visually aid reading your text?  For example, there may be flanking opportunities available to the Soviets in Manchukuo.
 
Re auto victory.  Just going off totally from memory, the auto victory threshold never dips below 2:1.  This means that in 1945 (scenarios 15/16) you can obtain a decisive victory with a 1.75:1 ratio at the conclusion of the scenario, which because the phrase "decisive" is employed suggests a victory at least as "big" as an auto victory implies.
 
Anyway, once you start strategic bombing of the home islands from the Bonins, the  victory points will quickly ratchet up.
 
Alfred

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

vettim89,

Sorry for making this request as it imposes additional work upon you, but in view of your last interesting post, any chance of posting various relevant screen shots to visually aid reading your text?  For example, there may be flanking opportunities available to the Soviets in Manchukuo.

Re auto victory.  Just going off totally from memory, the auto victory threshold never dips below 2:1.  This means that in 1945 (scenarios 15/16) you can obtain a decisive victory with a 1.75:1 ratio at the conclusion of the scenario, which because the phrase "decisive" is employed suggests a victory at least as "big" as an auto victory implies.

Anyway, once you start strategic bombing of the home islands from the Bonins, the  victory points will quickly ratchet up.

Alfred

I was intending to post some screen shots if I get a chance this weekend. I was actually waiting on posting for the screenies but thought I should update just in case anyone was wodering. The Flanking opportunites do exist but I need to get across the river first. Larry has pulled a lot out of central Manchuria to reinforce Hailor. It seems the cupboard is at least scarce if not bare there. Harbin is the key as it is the only resource center of any size which of course means its the IJA supply center. I have a huge advantage in base AS but am lacking a little in supplies. Breaking down the forts is the key. In true Soviet form I have about 2000 AS waiting at Vlad in case a breakout occurs to push into the enemies rear.

[vettim89]

2 Jan 1945

Well I lost track of a TF heading for Chichi Jima carrying ENG. The Japanese came with a big strike that cost me an SC, a MSW, a LST, and an AK. Many more are damaged. As you can see it cost Larry a pound of flesh. Total air losses were 147 to 22 today. I have a bunch more Sq upgrading to P-51D and they will replace the P-38's ASAP. Still nice to rip 80 frontline fighters away from Larry. I sent all the CENTPAC CV's to the hex NW of CJ next turn. Hopefully Larry will have kept his bombers on attack. Lets see what 400 Hellcats can do

The other notable even of the day was that the last Japanese unit was eliminated at Davao. The units here will rest and then prep for Luzon.

[vettim89]

Per the request, the situation in Malaya

[vettim89]

and the Soviet front

[vettim89]

3 Jan 1945

The Japanese Air Forces took the bait. Air losses were 197 to 22 (most of mine ops losses). The pictured strike was a wipe as were two smaller ones. I lost another LST but the troops are about unloaded at CJ.

Larry is trying to lift more troops into Okha. USN subs put a TT into an AK and an AP. Soviet AF put 1000 lb bobs into two AP. No mine hits though. Surging subs into the NoPac now as there is really no where else for them to hunt

And ............

To my shock Singora fell under the weight of an 8 to 1 attack. The Japanese are being pursued down the RR toward Kuala Lumpur. The three US units pushed the Japnese out of their hex in southern Malaya. The RCT will pursue these units to Kuntan where they retreated. The two ID's will keep pushing NE.

[vettim89]

4-9 January 1945

The USN CVTF sweep the waters south of Japan for two days on the 7th and 8th. Bad weather meant only one convoy was mauled. Of note, no missions flown against the US by a/c based in Japan.

The troops began to unload at Legasapi on the 9th and to my surprise only find on ID and some BF's there. This is the beginning of Operation Respite. The goal here is Manila as it is the one non-malarial hex in the whole region. Once there I can rest all of SWPAC's units for future operations.

The Russians emptied two hexes NW and NE of Vlad to expose the Japanese flanks. An encircling maneuver is being attmpted on the Japanese at Mishan. Supplies are really limited here.

Trying to take and reduce Kota Buhtar but the Commonwealth troops scattered after taking Singora. Image shows all the various routes various units have used or are using

[vettim89]

10-11 Jan 1945

The Japanese were eliminated at San Jose and north of Kota Buhtar. The Amoeba of Seac troops is moving on that hex almost from every direction. There are 24 poorly supplied highly disrupted/diabled troops there to be killed.

SWPAC is about unloaded at Legaspi. I have another 5 ID to move on the second run.

The TF are no about 240 nm W of Iwo bound for Naha.

Heavy fightin continues on the Russian front but I think the Sovs are slowly gaining the upper hand

[vettim89]

12-19 JAN 1945

Turns slowed down over the holidays but are picking up now. Highlights of action

* Troops are ashore at Naha and are ordered to attack on the 20th

* Troops have recovered from the invasion disruption at Legsapi and are ordered to attack on the 20th

* Troops are still trickling into Kota Buhtar but an attack is ordered on the 20th anyway

* Stubborn IJA troops hold out at Iwo and Cebu (two units at each base)

* Sovs have reduced forts to 6 at Mitikiang North of Vlad

* Sovs have repeately repulsed IJA attacks to reopen the road to Mitikiang from Changufuang

* Sovs haive failed to move the troops at Heiho or Mishan and have gone into siege mode while a large army circles east to cut off the IJA at both bases

* One of my TF's got separated on the way to Naha and was beat up badly (losing about 20% of the 27th ID in the process). The Japanese air forces smelled blood in the water but the USN quickly recorganized its CV's. The results were the Japanese losing over 800 a/c over two days.

Image shows what the Sovs get in May. Would be nice for the game to last that long.

[vettim89]

20 January 1945

The US troops at Naha brush the Japanese defenders aside in one attack (somebeody forgot to hit the "build fortifications" button). The huge mass of engineers is immediately ordered to unload. Once the base is repaired, fighters will be moved in to cover future ops as the base is built to level 7. Superbees will be coming soon

Down on the Malay penisula, the ragged remants of the once great Malay Army are pushed out of Kota Bhuru. There are 21 units trapped here now. I will beat on them for a few weeks then lower the total AS down to about 2 to 1. The reamining AS will move on Singers.

A deliberate attack at Legsapi reduces forts to 8 but the Japanese actually take more casualties than Allies. Three more ID's are inbound. This will make both Manila and Singers at risk which represent a boat load of VP's.

One of the two remaining units on Iwo was eliminated this turn. This is important as these units are needed for future ops in the East China Sea.

[vettim89]

21 JAN 1945

Just a quick post to say that Iwo is now cleared of Japanese troops. Naha will be operational next turn and 144 P-38 and P-47 are now based there. More troops landing at Okha. This seems to be Larry's Ardennes offensive. B-29's pound the AB at Paramuisha Jima as Larry had moved some Grace TB in there to harass Allied shipping in the Bering Sea. ANother ID and a HQ land at Legsapi.

[vettim89]

22-24 Jan 1945

Nice surprise on the 24th as both Legsapi and Cagayan fall. Mopping up operations will continue at Cagayan. Troops at Legsapi will rest while waiting for three more ID and another 5 ARM/ARTY units to make there way up from Mindanao

A TF has sailed from PH. It will pick up three RCT's from the south Pacific to be used from backfilling ops.

Last attack at Mitikiang has reduced forts to 5. Just a few more attacks before this front falls apart for the Japanese. Larry has managed to land even more troops at Okha and finally has a 748 to 732 AS advantage here. I have repositioned some air units to put more pressure on the Japanese up here too. I have a surpise building for Larry but it will take some time to get ready.

The units surrounded at Kota Bharu are being as stubborn as ever. Unit count is down to 20 from a max of 21. I am debating about lowering my AS here to a 2 to 1 level and moving the rest on Singers. Would really like opinions on this.

Offensive sweeps are about to commence from Iwo. I intend to whittle down the fighter strength in the HI before setting on the industry. BTW, Legsapi is a level 6(4) AB. As soon as repairs and expansion are accomplished, the Rangoon B-29's will move here.

[Alfred]

vettim89,

Regarding your request for opinions on the contemplated redeployment of LCUs from Khota Bahru.

Firstly, the screen shot you attached in post #1016 shows a dark red Japanese garrison at both Johore Bahru and Singapore.  Presumably this means that very large enemy garrisons are located at those two bases.  It seems to me that little would be gained by reducing your forces at Khota Bahru to only a 2:1 advantage if in doing so you fail to release sufficient forces to enable you to assemble an overwhelming force to quickly capture Johore and Singapore.  Those enemy garrisons are not going anywhere and if you get stuck there (as well as Khota Bahru) you are exchaning strategic flexibility for static besieging.

Secondly, I assume that you are interested in Singapore for its VPs.  Whilst sizeable, at this stage do you really need the Singapore VPs in order to achieve an auto victory.  Once you have air superiority over the Home Islands, strategic bombing will very quickly rack up the VPs.  At this stage, grabbing the Singapore VPs makes sense if they can be gobbled up very quickly and do not interfere with the forward momentum of your Asian offensive which could move otherwise onto Palembang, or Thailand, or Indo-China etc.  After all, Singapore is now largely a strategic backwater (I assume that it is lacking in supplies and aircraft etc and thus unable to sustain operations against your forces).

Thirdly, presumably you are of the view that completely eliminating all enemy resistance at Khota Bahru will be quite a lengthy process.  If you could quickly eliminate the enemy pocket, then that would be my preferred option as it would then give you strategic flexibility.  However by reducing your forces to only a 2:1 level, it seems that you would be achieving the worst of both worlds at Khota Bahru (and the possible risk identified in the first paragraph).  You should either eliminate the pocket quickly using land combats, or maintain the absolute minimal Allied force and rely upon air force ground attack and artillery bombardments to steadily whittle down the pocket (and thereby accrue VPs by killing enemy army items) whilst incurring little Allied losses (and attendant lose of Allied VPs).

Alfred

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

vettim89,

Regarding your request for opinions on the contemplated redeployment of LCUs from Khota Bahru.

Firstly, the screen shot you attached in post #1016 shows a dark red Japanese garrison at both Johore Bahru and Singapore.  Presumably this means that very large enemy garrisons are located at those two bases.  It seems to me that little would be gained by reducing your forces at Khota Bahru to only a 2:1 advantage if in doing so you fail to release sufficient forces to enable you to assemble an overwhelming force to quickly capture Johore and Singapore.  Those enemy garrisons are not going anywhere and if you get stuck there (as well as Khota Bahru) you are exchaning strategic flexibility for static besieging.

Secondly, I assume that you are interested in Singapore for its VPs.  Whilst sizeable, at this stage do you really need the Singapore VPs in order to achieve an auto victory.  Once you have air superiority over the Home Islands, strategic bombing will very quickly rack up the VPs.  At this stage, grabbing the Singapore VPs makes sense if they can be gobbled up very quickly and do not interfere with the forward momentum of your Asian offensive which could move otherwise onto Palembang, or Thailand, or Indo-China etc.  After all, Singapore is now largely a strategic backwater (I assume that it is lacking in supplies and aircraft etc and thus unable to sustain operations against your forces).

Thirdly, presumably you are of the view that completely eliminating all enemy resistance at Khota Bahru will be quite a lengthy process.  If you could quickly eliminate the enemy pocket, then that would be my preferred option as it would then give you strategic flexibility.  However by reducing your forces to only a 2:1 level, it seems that you would be achieving the worst of both worlds at Khota Bahru (and the possible risk identified in the first paragraph).  You should either eliminate the pocket quickly using land combats, or maintain the absolute minimal Allied force and rely upon air force ground attack and artillery bombardments to steadily whittle down the pocket (and thereby accrue VPs by killing enemy army items) whilst incurring little Allied losses (and attendant lose of Allied VPs).

Alfred

Thank you for your input as always Alfred. The IJA stack up north is basically out of supply and highly disrupted. My attacks have been coming off with ratios in the mid to high teens to 1 (last one was 18 to1). Still I generally inflict equal or fewer casualties than I take. My base AS advantage is roughly 5000 to 1000. My units are not highly disrupted but their fatigue and morale are not good. They have spent roughly 18 months in the jungle now since leaving Rangoon in late 1943. The basis for considering a cahnge is that the reduction of this pocket will take a long time regardless of how much I devote to the task. My thinking was to fall into siege mode with a roughly 2 to 1 base AS advantage with constant artilery and air bombardment being used to grind the stack down. Attrition would be my primary mode of eliminating the Japanese units. If I move roughly 3000 AS south to meet up with the 2100 AS at Jahore Bahru I should be able to at least clear that hex. Larry has been clever and is rotating ID's in and out of Singapore so that the troops meeting the Allies always have low fatigue and high morale. He has never had more than 750 AS there; so the 3000 coming south would be more than enough to displace the Japanese.

Considering the retreating Japanese would then suffer 20% casualties and have 80 disruption, the defenders of Singapore would be seriously weakened. The real advantage of going for Singers now is not for VP but for the precious non-malarial hex status. Once suffering the effects of the Shock Attack associated from entering the hex, my units will be able to recover their strength much more quickly. Once Singapore is taken I could then reverse the process sending a significant force back north that would then be fully rested and reconstituted thus posing a much larger threat to the trapped units at Kota Bharu. I reduced all heavy industry and resource centers in the entire Malay penisula more than a year ago. My assumption is that there is just not much supply left for the Japanese. I, on the other hand have moved over 500 k of supplies into the battle zone. At present Singers has 18 units numbering 93 k. This force will obviously be much fresher than the one at Kota Bharu but is less than 60% the size. My best guess going by recon numbers is also that a significant portion of that 93 k is support troops

The hesitation is that the 140 k troops at Kota bahru represent a sizable VP cache to be harvested.

25 January 1945

My esteemed opponent got me again with a SCTF. A small convoy with two CB units arrived at Petro to be met by an IJN SCTF led by CL Oi. I lose two transports and 2/3 of one CB unit. I will break op security here and tell everybody what I am up to. About three weeks ago I move a small BF into Petro to see if by having a US unit there I could change commands of the base. DING!!!! Yes I can. So I am slowing moving ENG units into the base to build up the AB to level 5. Once that is done, P-51D's can reach every base on Sakhalin Island. Also B-24/Privateers can then interdict the SLOC into Okha and Larry's huge stack of units there will be doomed. I have about half a dozen CB units in the Aleutians that are not doing anything. If I can get them into Petro alone with some AV support, life becomes very hard for the Japanese on Sakhalin. That's the plan man. BTW, PT's inbound to Petro along with an AGP