Shattered Vow

[Grollub]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: krupp_88mm
no but seriously wont he just now fortify teh north home island into a super fortress that you can never penetrate? how will you get past now or is this jsut a feint of a feint of a feint and teh REAL STRICK is coming in now somewhere else.. hehehehe

A Japanese player that retreats into the turtle shell of the home islands in 1943 is a Japanese player that loses the game. Quickly. The Japanese player needs to import copious amounts of oil, resources and fuel in order to power its industry. Losing either access to resources and oil (e.g., DEI cut off) or having factories bombed (e.g., Allied strategic bombing offensive against the home islands) will accomplish much the same thing. Canoerebel threatens to do both of these things now. A home islands invasion is absolutely not necessary to win the war (in 1943!) for Canoerebel.

Maybe if the Northern islands had been taken in early 1945 the Japanese player could rest on their laurels and live off of the supply already in hand. In 1943 this is not a practical solution.

Miller is hosed. Canoerebel has him between a rock and a hard place. Shift forces homeward? For Miller, this will mean more rapid advances for the allies in the DEI (=death for Japan). Stay the course in the DEI? For Miller this will mean strategic bombing commences forthwith from capable bases in the Kuriles (=death for Japan). In one motion, Canoerebel has opened that elusive second front against the IJ.

Here's what I would expect:

1. Less pressure in China. This represents the closest source of IJA troops for a counteroffensive. Miller will pull back his troops on endless offensive in China to a defensive position. He'll also move those troops across Korea to Japan and Sikahalin proper.

2. Defensive position in DEI. He'll likely marshall his forces against the greater immediate threat: the Northern islands campaign. I would not expect a massive DEI reinforcement from him at this point. The allies have too much to dislodge.

3. Continuing pressure against the Northern islands. Expect LBA to enter the picture soon from the HI, particularly bases on the NE side of Hokkaido. They can engage in sweeps and airfield attacks to diminish airfield CAP.

If Miller has been training up pilots, he will have a health stable of IJN and IJA pilots and reserve airframes to put them in. I'd expect these to make an appearance soon.

As I see it, the only "long term" solution for Miller would be to re-invade in the north and thus remove the immediate threat to the HI. I put long term within "", as the problem with that option is that I feel this wouldn't be much of a long term solution. That move would have to glue most of the japanese fleet resources in the northern area, giving Canoerebel more freedom of movement both in the DEI and elsewhere. Miller is indeed between a rock and a hard place.

In other words, I think you made a good analysis and I concur.

Edited: Spelling/grammar

[Canoerebel]

3/11/43 to 3/15/43

Operation Port Royal: With the taking of Paramushiro Jima and Onnekotan Jima, the sinking of nearly an entire Allied transport fleet, significant and roughly equal losses of combat ships, and the Allies with an advantage in aircraft losses, this operation has ended. To my surprise it ends with the Allies the only players on the field at the moment. Miller threw the kitchen sink at the Allies, nearly wiped out my ships, but I'm left with a medium-sized CL/DD force while the Japanese have recalled all their ships and halted bombing - temporarily, of course, but it's a nice breather. The Allies have 1050 AV ashore at Para with a Marine CD and Coastal CD, two forts, and progress in building the port and airfield. There is 200 AV ashore at Onnekotan with one fort. This islands' defense is augmented by two Marine CD and two artillery units.

Operation Chattanooga: This will be the operation to hold, supply, and reinforce the besiged fortresses of Par and Onne. First thing's first - I'm withdrawing the CL/DD ships to Attu to resupply from an AD in port. In their absence, PT boats will provide the defense. It will take Miller a few turns to realize they are gone, and by then they'll be back. I have two slow BBs and some other combat ships on the way, but it will likely be a week before I'm ready to insert them into the front lines. At about the same time I'll try to move in supplies via LST and augment the mining. Further back, BB Massachussets, CV Victorious, and escorts will arrive at Pearl in four or five days. Even further back, CVs Wasp and Lexington, BB South Dakota, and escorts are heading to Pago Pago and thence to Pearl.

Port Royal Combat Ships: I had four moderately to heavily damaged BBs at Para - two of these have made it far enough east to be out of imminent danger - especially BB Indiana. A third is half way to Attu. The fourth leaves Para tonight - the last of the battle casualties. The CVEs are at Kodiak and will head to Prince Rupert, a level six port that keeps them a bit closer to the action (if needed) than would Seattle. The Allies have thus far lost two BBs in this engagement (Warspite and Idaho). Given the massive combat sequences and prolonged assaults by the KB it will be a near miracle to have four survive, and barring sub attack or sudden leap-frog of the KB into the Bering Sea they should make it now. The Japanese lost four BBs (Haruna, Kirishima, Hiei, Kongo).

SWPac: The Allies don't have the ability to spring forward from Darwin, yet, despite the absence of the KB and some of the Japanese BBs. I could try to force something, but the odds are that it would just further dilute my remaining transport power. I prefer to build up the network of airfields so that eventually (in a month or two or three) the Allies can move forward in power and under cover of LBA. Toward that end the Allies are building the base a hex off the coast of Darwin, Darwin is level 8, Fenton is level 2 (and building), and Katherine is level 3 (and building). Saumlaki has a critically located level 2 airbase, but Miller has totally suppressed it by bombing. Eventually I'll be able to contest the air. At the point the Allies can reestablish and air force on Saumlaki, they'll be ready to move forward.

SoPac: Fiji Islanders and Kiwis have reclaimed the Ellice Islands, which were vacant. Eventually I'll recon Baker to see if it is occupied.

Burma: The Allies have troops in all the hexes around Akyab now and a combat TF just sank two Japanese AKs and two PBs there. What I don't know is whether Miller is willing to endure a siege (which is actually a pretty weak one since I'm going to be very short of supplies myself) or whether he'll move out or fight.

China: Given the power of massed artillery, which continues to be prevalent in our game, I requested a further house rule. Miller and I came up with this: he can use an artillery unit per each two divisions (the old rule was one per division). Judging by the first results since imposing the rule it hasn't helped much. Miller is trying to force his way through Changteh and I'm worried about whether I can hold it. Well to the south, I am going to try a sizeable flanking maneuver against the Japanese units besieging Liuchoa.

[Canoerebel]

3/16/43 to 3/19/43
 
NoPac:  The quiet continued, thus allowing the Allied CL/DD force to scoot from Para to Attu, replenish, and return to Para.  No Japanese carriers, no combat ships, no air raids.  Just persistent patroling followed by a SigInt that part of 33rd Division is on a Maru heading for Onnekotan Jima.  So I would expect the Japanese to arrive en masse - transports, combat ships, carriers, and LBA in one big package.  The Allies don't have enough to stop the Japanese from arriving.  Here's how things play out, I believe:

1.  With 250 AV, two CD, and three artillery units at Onnekotan, the Japanese should have trouble coming ashore in good shape (that's the way it's supposed to work, anyhow).  So the Japanese probably need to land considerably more than 500 AV.  This should pose some problems for Miller and hopefully things will not go as well as he hopes. 
2.  With 1050 AV, two CD, and two artillery units at Paramushiro, the Japanese would have to bring several thousand AV to have any chance of taking the island within a reasonable time frame.  Getting ashore should be difficult and getting together this kind of force and the needed ships will tax Japanese logistics capability.  I doubt the Japanese can mount anything this big in the near future - maybe ever.
3.  The Allies have two slow BBs in the region - but pushing them from the Aleutians to Para is going to be a roll of the dice.  If I time it to coincide with the appearance of the KB I'm going to be hurting.
4.  By around April 10 the Allies should have Wasp, Saratoga, Victorious, eight CVEs, and BBs Massachusetts and South Dakota available.
5.  By July, the Allies add four fleet carriers.  If, at that point, the strategic carrier balance hasn't shifted (IE, if I haven't lost carriers without claiming an equal number), the Allies should be able to use those carriers to shut down Japanese offensive capability.  Those carriers probably can't make it to NoPac until the end of July at the earliest.  So, my job is to try to hold Para (and Onne if possible) until the cavalry arrives.

SWPac:  If Miller strips the DEI of carriers to support his NoPac campaign, the Allies will be ready to move forward.  With two BBs, three good combat TFs, and plenty of transports and troops at Darwin, the Allies can seize some of the bases out in no-man's land.  If Miller keeps the Mini-KB in the DEI, I'll be far more cautious.

Burma:  No sign of Miller moving anything at Akyab although he's surrounded.

China:  Miller continues to reinforce Changteh, but a new Chinese unit just arrived. 

1943:  This is the year for attrition.  The Japanese remain strong, so any advance by the Allies will be bloody and difficult (usually).  This year is all about whittling down Japanese strength through air and sea battles that, ideally, should exact a toll at least as high as that paid.  I really don't think it matters all that much where these attrition zones are located - whether it's Darwin or Lautem or Bali or Kendari (or Port Moresby, Lunga, etc.), the objective is the same.  If successful in attriting the enemy, the Allies will then be able to assert themselves in 1944 and move forward fairly rapidly, bypassing some of the bases that are too strongly defended.  By taking the two islands in the Kuriles and establishing a strong offensive position at Darwin/Saumlaki/Merauke, the Allies have established the necessary attrition zones - now it's time to attrit!

[Smeulders]

I'd say you've done a fair bit of that already. 1/3rd of the Japanese battleships at the bottom is a real blow to his surface strength and the balance there will just keep on switching in your favour. Congrats on the operation, I thought attacking that close to the Home Islands would put him in a good position to strike back fast, but you seem to have overwhelmed him, I'm interested in how this turns out.

[Chickenboy]

If he's landing a full division on Paramushiro or Onitwhatever without prep in the face of heavy enemy resistance, he's nuts.

The days of freebie amphibious landings for the Japs are over. Combine that with stiff resistance from well-supplied allied units, CD guns, poor preparation (Japs need >75 prep points to avoid major disruption) and (likely) subpar landing ships and you've got a bonafide way to cripple a division, beach them and have them counterattacked into oblivion. Attrition writ large!

Any chance you can bump up your land forces on Onitwhatever? Air transport? If you're only holding one of the Kuriles you will be open to neutralization were he to take multiple bases in the area to counter your threat.

Where are your subs around N. Japan? I'd have them sea North of Osaka for early warning. His supply / resource routes from Sakhalin and Hokkaido are quite sensitive too-might be worth poking at now that you have functional torpedoes.

[Canoerebel]

I've got a Coronado unit at Onnekotan.  It lets me patrol as far as the northern tip of Honshu (the city of Ominato).  I also have subs - including one that picked off an LSD near Etorufu in the southern Kuriles.  Most of the subs are in the waters south of Hokkaido.
 
All my troops on Para are 100% prepped.  Most of the troops on Onne are 100% prepped (with the exception of the few that were originally slated for another island).
 
I can't reinforce Onne in any meaninful way at this point.
 
I don't know how close that Maru carrying part of 33rd Division was - it might be at Ominato or it might be in the Philippines.
 
Supplying my position is going to be a challenge, but I'm okay at the moment.
 
It's going to be interesting and very challenging, but I'd rather be in this position than in Miller's.  Chickenboy is right - desperation invasions by unprepped troops are a recipe for disaster.  Too, Miller's had some issues with transports since the Allied carrier raid in the DEI early in the game.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've got a Coronado unit at Onnekotan.  It lets me patrol as far as the northern tip of Honshu (the city of Ominato).  I also have subs - including one that picked off an LSD near Etorufu in the southern Kuriles.  Most of the subs are in the waters south of Hokkaido.

All my troops on Para are 100% prepped.  Most of the troops on Onne are 100% prepped (with the exception of the few that were originally slated for another island).

I can't reinforce Onne in any meaninful way at this point.

I don't know how close that Maru carrying part of 33rd Division was - it might be at Ominato or it might be in the Philippines.

Supplying my position is going to be a challenge, but I'm okay at the moment.

It's going to be interesting and very challenging, but I'd rather be in this position than in Miller's.  Chickenboy is right - desperation invasions by unprepped troops are a recipe for disaster.  Too, Miller's had some issues with transports since the Allied carrier raid in the DEI early in the game.

You nailed an LSD in the southern Kuriles? Heh...that's about half of the amphibious ships that the IJN gets. He really doesn't have many. Greasing something as significant as an LSD is a very very good thing for your troops in the Kuriles.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can't reinforce Onne in any meaninful way at this point.

Supplying my position is going to be a challenge, but I'm okay at the moment.

It's going to be interesting and very challenging, but I'd rather be in this position than in Miller's.  Chickenboy is right - desperation invasions by unprepped troops are a recipe for disaster.  Too, Miller's had some issues with transports since the Allied carrier raid in the DEI early in the game.

You know I was going to suggest the subs.[:)]
Seems as if you have that in hand, although more is better.

Can you run an air bridge to get more Seabees in there, hopping down the Aleutians? Maybe won't work by air with equipment, but anything to get forts to 4 or more would help out the CD units a lot on defense. Don't recall what you have in the way of non-combat-engineers already, and forts eat supply, but it might be worth the risk of even shooting them in there on ships. You get huge numbers of Seabees--whole regiments plus more battalions--in the summer of 1943. You can lose some now to make sure this was all worth it.

[Canoerebel]

3/20/43 and 3/21/43
 
Kuriles:  I have had several base forces and four SeaBee units prepositioned at Attu and Adak Islands, but it's going to be nearly impossible to sneak them into Para for awhile.  The KB has shown up west of Attu and sank an LST supply convoy.  Fortunately, it missed sighting the heavily damaged BB Oklahoma and a small combat TF (BB West Virginia and an escort DD).  I'm going to try to sneak WVa into Para, and I've re-routed Okla due north into the Bering Sea, but either or both can become victims depending upon which course the KB takes from here.  American subs picked off several more transports around Hokkaido and the Kuriles.  Still no appearance of amphibious forces, combat ships, or strikes by LBA.  The Allies have held the islands for nearly three weeks now.  So far, so good. 

Reinforcements:  CV Victorious/BB Massachusetts TF is north of Pearl and heading to Prince Rupert where it will rendezvous with the CVEs.  CVs Wasp and Saratoga and BB South Dakota will arrive at Pago Pago tomorrow; from there they head to Pearl Harbor.  Why weren't these ships in NoPac already?  They've been around Oz and the DEI the entire war and have recently been participating in the DEI action (they air squadrons had been moved to Darwin while the precious carriers remained at Sydney).  I probably don't want to commit my carriers in NoPac until signficant reinforcements arrive by summer, but I would like them in the periphery to act if a need or opportunity arises.

SWPac:  Pretty quiet here.  I assume, but I'm not positive, that the Mini-KB and some BBs remain down here.  The island off Darwin should reach level one airfield and port in two days.  I'll station fighters there and that will help me begin to nose around a bit.  I want to get supplies to Saumlaki.

Burma:  Still nothing happening at Akyab.  I think Miller is flying in supplies.  I tried LRCAP but my P-40Ks got chewed up.  We'll continue to nibble around Akyab while keeping it isolated.  My Royal Sovereign bombardment TF is retiring to Trincomalee to re-supply.  I'll use it for several bombardment missions when it returns.

China:  The Japanese tried a 1:3 deliberate attack at Chengtah and lost 15K to 7K, though the Allies lost far more non-combat squads than did the attackers.  This is more evidence that the combat model in China has some really rough edges.  I think the developers concentrated on island battles in the Pacific in developing the combat model and then hoped it would work in China. 

[Canoerebel]

3/22/43 to 3/25/43
 
NoPac:  Storm clouds are gathering - lots of ships seen just south of Hokkaido, but thus far the "False Peace" at Para and Onne continues.  The KB withdrew from it's blocking position west of Attu.  Subs finished off BBs Oklahoma and Tennessee (both were escorted, but the escorts didn't do a thing; that three damaged American BBs I've lost in the games to subs; and at least four RN BBs have been damaged by subs; I'm tellin' ya, subs are "Nucelar" in my game even if they aren't in anybody else's).
 
Onnekotan:  Just went to level one airfield and hosting a fighter squadron.  I've shut down airfield work to concentrate on forts, which are level two plus about 50%.  Two PT squadrons protect this port.
 
Paramushiro:  Will soon go to level two port (I'll then shut down that construction), but lagging on going to level five airfield (it's about 40% of the way).  Forts will reach level three tomorrow.  Supplies here and at Onnekotan are going to be problematic pretty soon.  I think I hope that Miller tries his counter-invasion sooner rather than later, so that my guys will have some supplies.  I've gotten SigInt that he's reinforcing some of the nearby bases like Shikuka and Sapporo, but I also had SigInt that part of 33rd Div. was on a Maru heading to Onnekotan.  So I think he's coming hard and soon.
 
Reinforcments:  CV Victorious and BB Mass. arrive at Prince Rupert tomorrow.  CVs Wasp and Saratoga and BB South Dakota are well north of Pago Pago on their way to Pearl.
 
Damaged Ships:  BBs Colorado and Indiana both reached Seattle and are in the shipyard.  They'll be available in less than two months.  BBs North Carolina and Revenge are north of Pago Pago and heading for either Alameda or Seattle.  Once they reach a shipyard repairs should take two months.
 
SoPac:   I have a small unit aboard AKLs heading north from Savaii toward Baker Island.  I'll recon Baker in a few days.  If it's occupied I'll abort the landings.
 
SWPac:  Bathhurst Island (a hex west of Darwin) just went to level 1/1 port/airfield.  The arifield can go to level eight.  It has a Kittyhawk squadron flying CAP now, which will help protect Darwin.  Massive troops influx into Australia - including lots of Brit units from India and American units that were formerly on the West Coast or at Auckland.  These units are heading to Darwin.  Once the Allies are "ready" to move forward into the DEI, they'll have a huge supply of troops to feed into the advance.  Saumlaki is the key.  Miller bombs it every turn and has wiped out supplies, airfield, etc.  I occassionally hit his airfield (Ambon) but don't have quite the oomph to shut it down yet.  I'm working on things.
 
Akyab:  Miller sent an armored unit due north of Akyab to feel out my stack. It was a river crossing and he learned that a solo armored unit doesn't do well against 1600 AV.  I think he'll now move east, where I have 500 AV in a wooded hex.  I'll reinforce that hex with some of the 1600 AV.  This began as an attempt to bluff Miller into thinking he's got problems at Akyab and it may work yet.
 
China:  Both sides keep reinforcing Changteh.  Miller has drawn down troops from Changsha for that purpose, so I do the same thing - but for me it's a three day journey from their to Changteh; for Miller it's probably ten days or more.  I still don't think he can win this battle.

[crsutton]

Canoerebel.

Hope you can answer this. When did your Indian and Australian armored units start to draw tanks from the pool? I got about 25 lee/grants and 30 matildas in my pool and another 50 of each about to arrive? It is early May in my PBEM. Which units get the matildas? I though it was the Aussie units but I see that they just converted to lee/grants from matildas.

Also could you list your warship losses and known or suspected Japanese warship losses to this point for all of us?

One last thing. Did you convert any of your four stackers to DEs? These come in very handy.

Thanks.

[Canoerebel]

3/26/43 and 3/27/43

NoPac: Here come the Redcoats! The map is filled with ships all around the Kuriles and Miller just sent two powerful combat TFs to Paramushiro. In the resulting naval clash, I lost BB West Virginia, two CLs, and a CLAA. I know the Japanese lost CA Haguro, plus a few other ships. The Japanese combat TF included BBs Mutsu and Nagato, meaning he's committed at least seven of his eleven BBs this way.

I can't commit any more ships to the battle, simply because they'll get chewed alive since the entire Japanese Navy is here now. I've got to keep a nucleus safe to fill out my carrier TFs for mid-43. So I have to be satisfied with bloodying the nose of the Japs (they've lost four BBs and I think two or three CAs) and now it's time to see if my defenses are as potent as I had planned.

On the plus side, I'm glad Miller is coming quickly while supplies aren't an issue. If he simply pounded me with ships and planes for weeks and then sent in his transports he'd have a better chance; but from his perspective I know it's a race to get ashore before I can build more forts.

Onne is 75% to level three forts, but time is running out, so I doubt it makes it that far (he's bound to hit me with pre-invasion bombers and bombardment TFs). My hopes here are that two Marine CDs plus two good artillery units will exact a high toll.

I honest don't think he can overwhelm Paramushiro's defenses. I just have too much there. By the time he could wear the defenses down it should be deep enough into the year for Allied carriers to intervene. However, this promises to be a bloody and interesting event.

SWPac: The Japanese have diverted so much power to NoPac that I have simply got to make hay in the DEI. He's probably got Ise, Yamashiro, and one or two other BBs here, along with the Mini-KB, but the Allies have two BBs (Washington and Mississippi) and the development of airfields is going well.

CRSutton: I'll try to update with information about ship losses tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the list of ships sunk as requested by CRSutton (also, CR, I don't recall when my Indian and Aussie units began to fill out - you might check with Q-Ball as he may know from his game with Cuttlefish).
 
Ships Sunk as of March 28, 1943:  Allies (736); Japanese (232)
Point Totals for Ships Sunk:  Allies (9,590); Japanese (2,987)
 
Here is a breakdown by category - due to FOW Japanese losses are somewhat unreliable (for instance, my table shows just one Japanese CV sunk, but I'm pretty sure Miller lost two):
 
CVs:  Japanese 2 (Junyo, Kaga); Allies 4 (Hornet, Yorktown, Enterprise, Lexington)
CVL:  J 1 (Zuiho); A 1 (Hermes)
BB:  J 4; Allies 10 (two of those are RN, eight are slow USN)
CA:  J 4; A 11
CL/CLAA:  J 3; A 18
CS:  J 1
DD:  J 20; A 39
APD: A 6
AP:  J 16; A 81
AK/AKL: J 99; A 312
AO:  A 10
TK: J 6; A 37
SS: J 43; A 7
Aux: J 12; A 15
LST: A 7
LCI: A 2
Other Stuff:  Didn't count them

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
SS: J 43; A 7

[X(] How many does he have left?

[Canoerebel]

I dunno - I purposefully haven't opened a Scenario Two file from the Japanese side to see what forces he has - it's a little bit of FOW that keeps me guessing.

I think that total is probably inflated pretty significantly, but I do know he's lost several (maybe five) in his all-out effort to hit ships at Paramushiro.

Jap subs have been absolutely devastating in this game, though. I cannot tell you the vast number of ships sunk thus far. Just to give you an idea, though, Japanese subs have sunk three damaged American BBs (one coming home from Pearl, two returning from Paramushiro), have damaged BB North Carolina, and have damaged at least five RN BBs. I saw nothing remotely similar to this in WitP.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

Do you have clarity on the appearance of Kamikazes in your game? I had thought that (since you landed close to the IJ homeland) they would trigger on 1.1.44. However, I've read other threads that suggest they may appear as early as 6.1.43. Do you know if there is any verity to the latter date? If true, you have about two months to get ready...[:(]

ETA: If you were to wave your magic strategic bombing wand and target any one target on Honshu for strategic bombing, what would it be? I have a suggestion for you, but wanted to hear your thoughts.

ETA II: Changed date of possible kami arrival above.

[Canoerebel]

3/28/43 to 3/31/43
 
NoPac:  The Japanese counterstrike has begun.  Miller first sent waves or combat ships (including the rest of his BBs) and strike aircraft against Paramushiro, leading me to wonder if that was the target of his invasion.  But his troops landed at Onnekotan, beginning on the 30th.  He has 700 AV ashore and took what I would consider light-moderate damage to his ships (grrrr, don't know why my two CD units didn't perform better).  His ground troops were badly disrupted, but since we are playing two-day turns I couldn't take a stab at them before there were too many ashore to take a chance.  My garrison is in good shape and it won't fall easily.  More importantly, this will hopefully take enough time, and damage enough ships, that Para will be safe for awhile.

DEI:  It appears that Miller has stripped the DEI of all his BBs, most of his LBA, and possibly (though not certainly) his Mini-KB.  During the lull, Saumlaki's engineers repaired the airfield.  I've moved two Spitfire squadrons there and I am sending supplies immediately.  I'm also mounting an invasion on the 1/0 island to the south, which is lightly held by less than 2k Japanese troops.  I'm also loading a US Army Division and two Aussie brigades 100% prepped for Lautem, but Miller reinforced that base and it may have as much as a division ashore.  So I may instead divert these troops to another base, heading north toward the tip of New Guinea or the Ambon area (though not Ambon itself).  I'll have to gauge things as I go - I won't proceed into the teeth of massed LBA or a stout Mini-KB.  But clearly NoPac has created a window for the Allies to strengthen their position on Saumlaki, which is the key to advancing into the DEI.  And with the Japanese BBs and KB far away, I believe the Allies can make hay while the sun is shining.

Burma:  The Allies have surrounded Akyab, but thus far Miller doesn't show any signs of panic or movement.

China:  The Chinese prevailed in the Battle of Chengtah.  Seven of the 26 Japanese units just pulled back over the river.  I've ordered a deliberate attack, but don't know if I'll catch any of the remainder at home.

Strategic Situation:  At very, very high cost - almost catastrophic cost - the Allies have initiated a series of moves that really have the Japanese flailing about.  First the moves into the eastern DEI brought the wrath of Japan there; while that was going on the Allies invaded the Kuriles, which then attracted the full wrath of Japan; now the eastern DEI appears to be a big opportunity for gains.  I think the Allies will lose Onnekotan Jima, probably hold Paramushiro, and likely get a key toe-hold in the eastern DEI.  Those are important gains, but the cost incurred has been too high.  The only thing that keeps me from despairing is that the Japanese have lost four BBs and are careening back and forth across the map.  That can't be a good thing for Japanese logistics. Usually, frantic movement leads to mistakes.  I hope it's the Japanese panicking and that they suffer for it.

Chickenboy: It will be a LONG time before the Allies will be in a position to begin strategic bombing, so I haven't even begun looking at potential targets. Right now, though, just the threat of it has Miller pulling out his hair - thus the massive operation to take Onnekotan Jima.

Sub: While Japanese subs pick off dozens of Allies ships, the mass of Allied subs around Onnekotan has done very little except take major damage. I think one sub scored on an xAK over these two days, but at least five subs took moderate to heavy damage. This is very frustrating.

[John 3rd]

Those loss are horrific but--as you well know--you can take them and Japan cannot.  
 
I think the idea of moving forward in the DEI now is sound.  Whatever is in that area should be fightable with you current forces deployed there.
 

[Canoerebel]

I just saw a comment in Q-Ball's AAR made by a third-party about my invasion of NoPac.  I may be misreading it but the poster seems to be questioning the reasonableness and even the fairness of my invading NoPac in March 1943.  I think that's pretty preposterous for these reasons:

1.  Both Miller and I are equally aware that winter effects terminate beginning March 1.  Therefore, we are equally on notice as to what that means.  It was up to Miller to evaluate that possiblity and take action accordingly.  I didn't have some unfair advantage over him that he couldn't counter (unlike Miller springing 17 artillery units against one of my hexes in China earlier in the game).

2.  Does that poster seriously think the Allies couldn't have mounted a 1943 invasion of the Kuriles if those islands were largely undefended and if the Japanese had sent essentially all naval and air assets to the DEI?

3.  The cost of the invasion has been exhorbitant and there's some question as to whether I will ultimately prevail.  I think the Allies could have accomplished the same things in 1943 at much, much less cost.

4. Miller knew I invaded NoPac in my WitP with John III. Even more significant, he had access to this very AAR several months ago (when we quit the game; a decision we didn't stick with) and he specifically told me via email that he had seen my comments about my interest in invading Paramushiro.

[stldiver]

Its definatly a well know route of advance, and one you have used before.

That fact that route was not defended adaquetly, is not your fault, think of the consequances if it was! You would be seriously hurt, and unable to advance till much later in 43. As it stands now your position is still tenous, and by no means a slam dunk. Kudo's on the ability to take the plunge.

AE is still in the early stages where people are testing the boundaries of what can and cannot go well. There are campaigns that are going well for Japan early in these wars, and there are campaigns where the allies have seemed to turn the tables early in the war. Just like Witp its to early to call play balance issues, give it another 6 months to year.

As it is its a great ride and very enjoyable game to square off against a human opponent. I would not worry about what others say its how you and Miller enjoy the game that matters.

p.s. Reading yours, Q-balls, and Aztec's AAR's definatly gives me fits on where I need to defend better in my empire!