Here we go again! tc464 (A) vs. Mike (J) - No tc464

[ny59giants]

That's wonderful! You just showed me a way to attack without fear of hitting those nasty ports stacked with fighters. Very nice. Thanks

Just make sure the leader is a "nerd" and not Samurai. [:D]

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: bklooste
IMHO it depends... Warships would have alerted the allies but not merchant ships ( or converted ones) since Japan was one of the largest merchant marines , even 20 of these could go with no issues to Singapore or Batavia . I would even say NOT sending merchant ships would arouse more suspicions.

I personally think a deep move into the DEI by Japan is gamey, and I do think that any Japanese merchant movements would have aroused suspicion.

First, the Pacific in early December was quite empty of routine merchant traffic, because war seemed imminent.

Second, upon a sighting report, Dutch authorities would have simply had to ask the question: "If those are routine ships, are they delivering things to us? Our Allies?". There was nowhere for them to go. It would have immediately aroused suspicion, especially travelling in a group, as civilian merchants travel alone.

When Japnaese merchant ships were sighted in the Gulf of Siam Dec 7th (day before Pearl Harbor local time), though the destination was up in the air, it was assumed they were military convoys.

Nope, I don't think the Dutch would be fooled at all. And even if there was a chance, would the Japanese planners allow a war warning to be triggered early if their deception didn't work? Nope.

Mike Solli: I am glad to see you landing early on Port Moresby. There is no reason not to, and many reasons not to delay. PM is one of those spots whose value to Japan is to deny it to the Allies.

Where are you going after Singkawang? I advocate getting onto Java FAST. Even if you just drop 2 Bdes to hold a beachhead. How about landing some construction troops at Billiton? You won't need much infantry support, and they can knock up an airbase pretty quick. Billiton can support landings on Java and Southern Sumatra.

[SqzMyLemon]

Keep it going Mike, nice to see you enforcing your will and having a plan [:D] unlike myself [8|]. Great AAR, enjoying all your posts.

Since we are fellow PDU off Japan players, what's your air production at these days? I'm curious to see how your pools are going, or is that not really a concern of yours right now?

Again, really enjoying your AAR, great job with the detailed posts.

[Mike Solli]

Q-Ball, I'm going to do as you suggest with Billiton. I have a base force headed to Singkawang. I'll probably divert it to Billton. I have the 21 Bde available and hope to have 38 Div available soon. I'd like to send them to Java in Jan. Some naval air at Billiton would do nicely.

Lemon, I'm going to do an economic analysis monthly so should be doing it this week. Anyway......

28 Dec 41

Reinforcement: SC Ch-25 arrived. It'll suplement my Home Islands ASW Fleet.

The CL Dragon was hanging around Kuching and the I-158 got another shot and got a hit. She's now retiring to the west and I've more subs hopefully in her way.

The Singkawang invasion fleet will land tomorrow. I've a surface fleet of 4BB & 2 DD and another of 4 CA & 4DD in the area. The day I take it I'll be able to stage ~90 planes there. Then on to Billiton.

Malaya

The 21 Div has completed landing and is now strat moving into Malaya. Tomorrow, I should have the 2 or 3 units in Georgetown surrounded. The IG Div is at Georgetown but won't attack until the base to the SE is captured, which will happen tomorrow.

Burma

I liberated Moulmein, which was empty of troops. The crawl continues there.

Hong Kong

I attacked again today. I finally got 2:1 odds, but Ted managed to rebuild the fort to level 1. I knocked it back down to 0 but didn't take it..... yet. A couple days bombardment to rest the troops and then I'll hit it again.

I had one xAKL sink from old damage and another one get damaged.

[Mike Solli]

Oh yeah, Lemon, it's easy for the Japanese player to enforce his will in Dec 41. [:D]

[Q-Ball]

If you do Billiton, I would bring more than a base force; I would find some construction units to get it going fast as well. There are plenty around Indochina/Formosa at start, just grab a few and drop them there. I think I landed like 6 companies to get it going, but it goes fast, because you only need to work on the airbase, not trenches or port.

Where are you going after the SRA anyway? The choices are not as tasty as WITP. I really wrestled with this one. I can be more specific via PM in case my opponent is reading this!

[bklooste]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: bklooste
IMHO it depends... Warships would have alerted the allies but not merchant ships ( or converted ones) since Japan was one of the largest merchant marines , even 20 of these could go with no issues to Singapore or Batavia . I would even say NOT sending merchant ships would arouse more suspicions.

I personally think a deep move into the DEI by Japan is gamey, and I do think that any Japanese merchant movements would have aroused suspicion.

First, the Pacific in early December was quite empty of routine merchant traffic, because war seemed imminent.

I could be wrong but I dont think this is true at all with the exception of tankers. There were large amounts of rubber picked up i believe and negotiations were still going on which most people believed would be successfull. The US intelligence knew on the 6th but i very much doubt it would be passed on to the dutch and the other US services ( ie the fleet in PH didnt get it) . Merchant navies dont stop at the threat of war only when shots get fired , economies need the goods to keep running. And it wouldnt be hard for merchant ships to have a legitimate reason just arange to pick up some goods at 25% over the price , im sure the DEI will supply some Urgent rubber because the british wont its easy to have a legitimate excuse for a few merchants

[witpqs]

I think he meant that Japan had recalled its merchants to home waters prior to the opening attacks.

[bklooste]

Did they ? If they did i stand corrected ,that would surprise me even more regarding the Allies being so flat footed at PI and Malaysia . Recalling your merchants means your are going to war V Soon and you can forget negotiation, the economic cost of using it as a bluff is imense. However reccalling all the merchants would have taken weeks there is something missing here , weeks of fortrification, moving units out of Japanese reach , sending subs to see but what do i see a stack of subs sitting in Manilla on Dec 7 , Why weren't the planes at Clarke moved further South , why didnt they reinforce or Abandon the PI etc.

[vlcz]

ORIGINAL: bklooste
.. moving units out of Japanese reach , sending subs to see but what do i see a stack of subs sitting in Manilla on Dec 7 , Why weren't the planes at Clarke moved further South , why didnt they reinforce or Abandon the PI etc.

Abandon PI????..
Take planes away from your strongest base??????...

Hardly anyone would do that without years of post-war reading and wargaming experience...Maybe they were guilty of not being farseers....

sorry for the thread-stealing mike [8|]

[Mike Solli]

29 Dec 41

Reinforcements:  AMC Akagi Maru at Osaka & AS Heian Maru at Kobe

Malaya

I took Taiping, which was undefended.  Georgetown is now surrounded.  Tomorrow I'll attack with the IG Division to knock off ~3 units.

There is quite a bit of force pushing south toward Singapore now.  I hope things start to progress a little more quickly.

The I-124 was proceeding back to Saigon after dropping a load of mines off Darwin.  She was passing by Singkawang and ran into the wounded CL Dragon.  She put two torpedoes into her and had the satisfaction of watching the Dragon go down.  So far, in recent days, Ted has lost 3 CLs for no gain at all.  The Dragon was lost here and Adelaide and Danae near Pt. Moresby.  I think his 1 ship ambush tactic isn't working. 

I landed at Singkawang today and will attack tomorrow with bombardment support from 4 BBs.  The 4 CAs are providing cover if needed.

China

Nothing new to report.

Hong Kong

I bombarded this turn.  The defending Brits are pretty weak now.  The two battalions are combat ineffective and the brigade is losing combat value each day.  I'm going to try a shock attack tomorrow to end this once and for all.  I have plans for the 38 Div and the supporting units here anyway....

Philippines

It appears that one of the two isolated units in the north has vaporized (most likely the battalion).  The 65 Bde and Tanaka Det are attacking the remaining unit, 11 PA Div I believe, tomorrow.

I'm attacking in various places, hoping to divide the Allied forces again and push most of them into the Bataan peninsula.

Java

I'm going to follow Q-Ball's advice and push a force into Java as soon as possible (mid-January is the goal).  Right now I have the 38 and 4 Divs earmarked, as well as the 16 Army HQ and all the supporting units currently in Hong Kong.  The 4 Division has been sitting in Osaka since the start of the war.  I'm going to push them to Formosa by fast xAP (man do I love those things!) by transport TF then reload them on xAKs as an amphibious TF.  I'll give you guys an OOB later when I work it all out.  The goal is to land in the north at Merak and then push south to Batavia and establish an air base there.  The 3 Air Division currently has unemployed fighters and bombers that can be put to good use there.  This invasion will effectively cut Java from Summatra.  The liberated air fields (Batavia, Billiton and Singkawang) will isolate Palembang too.

I have begun to identify and load forces for the Billiton invasion.  I want to build up this base as quickly as possible to support the invasion of Merak.

SE Fleet

The Pt. Moresby invasion force is 2 days out.  Behind them is a base force for occupation duties, as well as engineers and (later) more aviation support.  Things are looking good with KB and subs keeping the peace along with 2 BBs escorting the invasion force.

4th Fleet

Things are quiet here.  The Wake invasion force finally finished unloading the last of it's supply.  An engineer unit just arrived (from Formosa) and is unloading.  These guys are the first engineers to reach Wake.  Forts are the order of business for them.  There is a serious lack of engineers in the 4th Fleet area.  More are coming to work on defenses.

5th Fleet

Currently, 2 infantry regiments and an engineer regiment are moving into the area from Kwantung Army to reinforce the area.  Another infantry regiment and several construction units (also from Kwantung Army) are awaiting transport to also move.

Japan

Not much is happening here.  The only change I've made since the beginning of the war was to increase Tokyo's repair yard from 10 to 20.  Eventually, I want this yard to be able to repair the largest capital ships.  Here is my goal for large repair yards:

Hiroshima - 100 (complete)
Kobe - 90 (complete)
Nagasaki - 90 (complete)
Yokohama - 90 (complete)
Osaka - 100 (currently at 25)
Tokyo - 80 (currently at 20)

Other Stuff

I lost an xAKL from previous damage.

I had 23 To'sos finish converting to PBs.  Now I have to figure out where they need to go.

Ominato and Cam Ranh Bay both completed level 6 ports.  They both are continuing on to level 7.  That seems to be the magic number for the ability to do lots of good things to ships. 

My intent is to have the following ports at level 7 minimum:  Soerabaja, Singapore, Saigon, Cam Ranh Bay, Hong Kong and Shanghai.  This will give a great deal of flexibility concerning the repair and conversion of ships.

[vlcz]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
The 4 Division has been sitting in Osaka since the start of the war. I'm going to push them to Formosa by fast xAP (man do I love those things!) by transport TF then reload them on xAKs as an amphibious TF

Is there any reason that compensates for the 6 days delay packing/unpacking? At first sight it seems better using only amphs as japan as long as they get the bonus

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: vlcz

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
The 4 Division has been sitting in Osaka since the start of the war. I'm going to push them to Formosa by fast xAP (man do I love those things!) by transport TF then reload them on xAKs as an amphibious TF

Is there any reason that compensates for the 6 days delay packing/unpacking? At first sight it seems better using only amphs as japan as long as they get the bonus

Six days? The most I've seen was 1-2 days to pack or unpack. Some of my xAPs are hanging around Japan for unit movement. I try to shuttle them back to where major units are available for movement. The xAKs are used for invasions and shuttling stuff to where it's needed. The 4 Div was already in strat mode because I had planned to move it by transport TF. The convoy is ~18kts so it'll make up some time vs. a 12-14kt xAK convoy. Also, I use the fast xAKs to move stuff between hubs and the Home Islands (supply out and everything else in).

[vlcz]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
Six days? The most I've seen was 1-2 days to pack or unpack

I´m quite sure divisions have 3 days packing time

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
The 4 Div was already in strat mode because I had planned to move it by transport TF

Planification pays back as allways,and you are great doing it [:)] ... I have full my hands and in this four months my divisions go from one fight to the next one almost on fire brigade duty [;)]

[Mike Solli]

Keep in mind that I spent a lot of time getting the first phase planned and I'm still there.  Things will get a lot more complicated and confused soon. [:D]

[Mike Solli]

Here's some info. It seems that my subs have been doing an outstanding job. Maybe too good?

[Mike Solli]

Sucking Palembang Dry......
 
I just played around with some numbers concerning Palembang.  First of all, I have one assumption.  I'm assuming that all the oil from Djambi will flow to Palembang. 
 
Given that, Palembang will have 39k oil, 275k fuel (minus what goes into the ship tanks), 12k resources and 30k supply (minus what's used internally) available to be shipped out each month.  The resources and supply aren't a concern, but the liquids are.  Here's my solution (please let me know what you think):
 
2 Task forces each composed of:
 
3x Manzu TM (7950 capacity)
2x Type-1 TS (1250 capacity)
1x To'so PB
 
This gives each TF a total capacity of 26,350.  The distance to Singapore is 7 hexes, 1.5 days for a 12kt convoy.  It'll take 2 days to load and 1 day to unload, and finally 1.5 days to return to Palembang.  That's 6 days per run, or 5 runs per month.  This can be speeded up a bit with some naval support.  I plan on dumping ~120 naval support there to speed up the loading (I hope).  If it doesn't keep the levels low at Palembang, another small TK or two in a third convoy will do the trick
 
What do you think?
 
Each TF can haul 5*26,350 or 131,750 per month for a total of 263,500 fuel per month to Singapore.
 

[ny59giants]

I want to say a few things about how you are conducting your expansion vs mine, but my opponent can read your AAR while yours could read mine.

I just took Taiping and am having trouble getting Hong Kong to fall. I'm doing another shock attack next turn cycle. My game has been a lot of OJT as I did make some annoying self inflicted micro-management mistakes. The 2 day turn cycle is nice, unless you forget something. [8|]

[Mike Solli]

I can see Hong Kong being a problem in a 2 day game.  If the first attack doesn't do the trick, the second one will trash the attacker.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Here's some info. It seems that my subs have been doing an outstanding job. Maybe too good?

My goodness! That's a lot of combat ships nailed by IJN submarines in a very short period of time!