Shattered Vow

[veji1]

Agree with Crsutton : Attacking the DEI and Kuriles that early is bold, and while the game should make it possible, it should make it likely very costly. had the US had to crush the Japanese before 1945 or even 1944, they could have done it, by taking way bigger risks and risking big losses. They took there time and advance methodically. with a massive LBA and an unstoppable carrier force, it is normal not to have too big losses. that early in the game is a different matter. Your game has been aggressive, KO type of boxing in which the two boxers are already tired in the fourth round while in other types of bouts they are still cruising...

[vettim89]

Dan,

Just caught up with your AAR. Good reading. Some observations:

1. Nice to see you push the envelope. Your point about making Miller use up valuable resources (esp. fuel) responding to your moves is valid. Even if you lose the battle up north, it will force him to burn precious resources he might wish he had later.

2. That said, one of the first things the Devs said when AE was released is you can't play AE like WiTP. I think some of the losses you have experienced have to do with you WiTP-think. Of course, for those of us watching, their is nothing like the ability to learn from some one else's mistakes. Thanks for the tutorial!

3. Very interesting point about the difference between RL and the game. The political ramifications of some of your losses in RL would have been serious to say the least. Consider how one bad day in November 1943 affected public mood (the Tarawa invasion foul ups are a point belabored by historians to this day). Yet, your game is far from unsalvagable. In fact the point could be made that you are in pretty good shape despite the losses.

4. Lastly you were worried that AE would be boring. WHat is your opinion now that you've played?

[Canoerebel]

Vettim, good to see you in the AE forums.
 
AE is definately different than WitP and, you're right, many of the moves I've made have been predicated on an instinctual (but incorrect) application of strategy and tactics that worked in WitP.  I've pushed too hard and it's cost me.  By the same token, the Allies are in fairly decent shape.
 
I have mixed feelings about AE at this point:
 
1.  The game is massive and nuanced and wonderful and vexing.  It was worth every penny of whatever it was I paid for it (don't recall now - $59?).  Miller and I have spent hundreds of hours so the game is the cheapest form of entertainment around.
2.  The game has major flaws.  Some of these have been addressed and I think many other will be addressed in the future (I hope so!).  I didn't pick up WitP until years after its release.  I assume that WitP began with wrinkes, but that by the time I got involved (playing the Big B mod), many had been ironed out.  Is that true, and do all you plank owners think that AE is going through exactly the same process?
3.  The game has amazing detail that offers richness but also threatens to overwhelm a player with micromanagement headaches that detract from enjoyment.
4.  AE has definately reigned in the ability of Japan to expand to the edges of the map, but also seems to have given Japan a better ability to defend itself.  I'd say the game is just as exciting as WitP, but at this point more irritating and more tedious.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2.  The game has major flaws.  Some of these have been addressed and I think many other will be addressed in the future (I hope so!).  I didn't pick up WitP until years after its release.  I assume that WitP began with wrinkes, but that by the time I got involved (playing the Big B mod), many had been ironed out.  Is that true, and do all you plank owners think that AE is going through exactly the same process?

Pretty much. Imo there were more database errors to fix in WitP than AE. My long term memory is somewhat suspect however.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
2.  The game has major flaws.  Some of these have been addressed and I think many other will be addressed in the future (I hope so!).  I didn't pick up WitP until years after its release.  I assume that WitP began with wrinkes, but that by the time I got involved (playing the Big B mod), many had been ironed out.  Is that true, and do all you plank owners think that AE is going through exactly the same process?

I respectfully remind you of your own qualifications about YOUR game having major flaws versus THE game having major flaws. Many others playing PBEM have not experienced the same flaws as you have, for whatever reason.

Yes, that's true. Yes, AE is going through similar growing pains, albeit, IMO less substantial ones. Some of the early WiTP bugs were real game killers. Classic examples include the leader bug that 'disappeared' 2/3 of one's leaders overnight or swapped out your American Carrier COs at inauspicious times (right before a major battle) for Japanese 0/0 skill warrant officers. Oh man...

I think the AE 'bugs' are smaller in scale and scope and are more gameplay balance sorts of things. I'm pleased with the spit and polish, particularly compared to its predecessor. In WiTP, it took upwards of a year to really work out major kinks (although some iteration of the leader bug remained 'till the bitter end). AE has improved on that with a very serviceable game being out NOW-about 4.5 months after initial release.

[anarchyintheuk]

Leader bug . . . bad times, bad times.

[Canoerebel]

That helps, Chickenboy.  I never dealt with those massive bugs.  I can just imagine the irritation level dealing with things that major. 
 
So, AE is far more polished and it sounds like it should be easier to iron out the wrinkles.  That's good.
 
As for those wrinkles, though, I'm pretty sure that it isn't just my game.  We've played too far and they've been happening too regularly and for too long in the game  - especially the Artillery Death Star and Nuclear Sub matters.

[Nemo121]

Bottom line... It's a game and it has some flaws. Some of those flaws benefit you, some the enemy. Unless those flaws are absolutely massive ( nuke arty bombardments ) it is your job as commander to figure out a way around them and carry on fighting. When they're massive you should HR them to avoid them. Right now the escort issues and submarine issues seem to me to be things which you COULD do something about through your gameplay. I suggest you adopt a HR for amphib TFs... No more than 8 escorts in the TF and they have to be DDs or better. That way you won't waste all your CD shells on PBs and other useless stuff.


As to the rest.... You've won some strategically important victories here. You have the strategic advantage in the north-east and south-west of the Japanese perimeter. Now is the time to gain it in the north-west and south-east. Once you have it in all 4 corners you should be able to phase a series of rolling offensives in series and never lose it. Your situation is strategically wonderful. It pains me to see you bi***ing about minor tactical issues and losing sight of the huge strategic advantages you are accruing.

Focus on what you can do to the enemy and then DO IT. Don't focus on what the game is doing to you in the small print, that way lies mediocrity and quitting.



As for AE:
The more I play the more impressed I am. It is behaving more and more as I would have expected given history. At present the only major issues remaining ( apart from tweaking of subs etc ) that I can see are:
1. Need to fix CD guns. It is a game of amphibious invasions. Currently one of the main safeguards to amphibious invasions simply does not work properly. That needs fixing.

2. They really should add in some way to tell fighters to head directly for enemy strike planes/bombers. Right now your twin-engined bomber destroyers will happily try to dogfight a P-51 instead of going for the bombers. This is utterly ahistorical and renders certain plane types absolutely useless when, in real life, they were rather useful indeed.

3. GUI regarding pilot selection for squadrons needs to be clarified. At present I find it almost impossible to tell how many veteran pilots I have going to a particular squadron. End result, sometimes I send too many, sometimes I send none. Which is which? I don't know because the UI struggles to tell me.


If those are the 3 biggest issues apart from tweaks then that's a staggering compliment to the developers... and I'm hardly known for giving out praise easily.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
2.  The game has major flaws.  Some of these have been addressed and I think many other will be addressed in the future (I hope so!).  I didn't pick up WitP until years after its release.  I assume that WitP began with wrinkes, but that by the time I got involved (playing the Big B mod), many had been ironed out.  Is that true, and do all you plank owners think that AE is going through exactly the same process?

Quite honestly, I think that AE right now is substantially better than WITP at its best.

[JeffroK]

It had better be an improvement on WITP.

But dont forget the best WITP were the mods, CHS, RHS, BigB, Nikmod and others.

AE should have used the best of all of these mods plus improvements to the processes.

And its only through the comments of players like Dan that we have had the sub & arty problems looked at and resolved. In a way, we are doing to hard core playtesting that time didint allow the devs to run.

IMHO, we are at AE vanilla, there is a long, long way to go to get it to the improvement level that WITP got to.

Dan,

Ditto to Nemo's

As to the rest.... You've won some strategically important victories here. You have the strategic advantage in the north-east and south-west of the Japanese perimeter. Now is the time to gain it in the north-west and south-east. Once you have it in all 4 corners you should be able to phase a series of rolling offensives in series and never lose it. Your situation is strategically wonderful.

Focus on what you can do to the enemy and then DO IT. Don't focus on what the game is doing to you in the small print, that way lies mediocrity and quitting.

In Bill Slim's Unofficial History he has the same problem where he worries about the myriad problems of his force when attacking Syria. After the battle and conversation with his opponent he realisesthat his actions had created so much more doubt in the mind of his opponent.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/43 to 4/7/43
 
NoPac:  It is confirmed that the Japanese have all remaining BBs - seven of them - operating in NoPac.  On the 6th, Gar put two TTs into BB Yamato, hopefully putting her in the shipyard for a month or more.  In addition to the BBs, two powerful CA TFs (with a total of at least 14 cruisers) are operating in these waters.  Given this power, and the lack of Allied power, I'm quietly conceding Paramushiro.  I'll try to evacuate by sub a cadre from each unit. 

Allied Carriers:  I've decided to send the Allied carriers from NoPac back to SWPac. I want them to remain a force in being - IE, to conceal their whereabouts so that Miller has to assume they can show up anywhere.  If, however, a Mini-KB were to show up in the DEI, I would want to have my carriers available.  I'm not sure where they are going - perhaps Port Headland?

SWPac:  The Allies took Babar Island and have re-supplied Saumlaki.  Thus far Miller has committed only subs and some LBA - no combat TFs and no Mini-KB.  The Allies have loaded transports at Darwin and will soon move on Kai-Elanden and Aru, two small islands north of Saumlaki.  If that goes well, the Allies will move expeditiously on Babo (western tip of New Guinea) and Boela (eastern tip of Ceram).  If Miller doesn't commit the Mini-KB soon, this will happen in short order because I don't think his LBA poses a significant threat (yet).  Boela and Babo pose big strategic threats to the Moluccas, so I intend to garrison these in force including 32nd Infantry Division, which is 100% prepped for Lautem.  I'm not going to Lautem, however, as I'm pursuing a path of lesser resistance that in the long run is just as valuable. [Note - I had BB Washington in a bombardment TF to hit Babar from Darwin.  The BB didn't retire, however.  She sat there for an entire day and took a TT from a Betty.  I've lost many ships this way - especially those in fast transport TFs an annoying glitch.]

Burma:  In his email last night Miller disclosed that he's been air-evacuating Akyab, so the Allies will advance and try to take the base.  From there I'll just rattle my drums and march troops around making noise and trying to look threatening (I'm foregoing Burma to concentrate on the DEI).

China: A Chinese army marched cross-country, arrived at Nanning and found it lightly garrisoned, but Japanese reinforcements arrived before I could attack.  I'm just nosing around here, too, trying to rattle Miller.  Things are quiet at Changsha and Changeh at the moment.

Strategic Situation:  The Allies are in pretty good shape if they can make some progress in DEI.  However, if the Japanese are able to put up a nasty defense here, I'm in trouble.  China is toast, I'm foregoing Burma, NoPac is a no-go, and I've lost so many ships that I doubt I can mount a two-prong advance at this point.  So I need to make some progress in the DEI and I think I have a good start.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Vettim, good to see you in the AE forums. [/quote}

I have abstained for the obvious reason. I resolved myself to not start a PBEM until patch 3. Mind you I made that commitment at release. I am glad I made that promise to myself. That said, reading yours and Q-Ball's AAR's is getting my AE juices flowing. You of all people should understand the challenges of keeping a commitment like this one

AE is definately different than WitP and, you're right, many of the moves I've made have been predicated on an instinctual (but incorrect) application of strategy and tactics that worked in WitP.  I've pushed too hard and it's cost me.  By the same token, the Allies are in fairly decent shape.

I have mixed feelings about AE at this point:

1.  The game is massive and nuanced and wonderful and vexing.  It was worth every penny of whatever it was I paid for it (don't recall now - $59?).  Miller and I have spent hundreds of hours so the game is the cheapest form of entertainment around.

As was WiTP

2.  The game has major flaws.  Some of these have been addressed and I think many other will be addressed in the future (I hope so!).  I didn't pick up WitP until years after its release.  I assume that WitP began with wrinkes, but that by the time I got involved (playing the Big B mod), many had been ironed out.  Is that true, and do all you plank owners think that AE is going through exactly the same process?

Ding - you found my reason for waiting for Patch 3. That said, as WiTP found its legs, a pretty standard set of HR's evolved to address those issues that the game could/would never address. I think we will see this in AE also

I have a greater appreciation of how vital the cocurrent campaigns for PNG and the Solomons were to the RL Allies. It seems that the Allied player in AE really needs that kind of long drawn out battle of attrition to truly grind the Japanese down to win

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: aztez

Good move seizing Kuriles. I wohn't go into details where I might/will hit for obvious reasons. I will let my beloved opponent find this out from the actual game! [:D]

I can't wait! [:D]

[Chickenboy]

[/quote]
Quite honestly, I think that AE right now is substantially better than WITP at its best.
[/quote]
+1. And it keeps getting better for me...

[Canoerebel]

4/9/43 and 4/10/43
 
NoPac:  Japanese air raids and small combat TFs visit Paramushiro regularly.  I have a sub shuttling cadres of units from there to Attu.  I hate to give up on Paramushiro.  I really thought that Onnekotan's CD guns would so devastate the Japanese invasion fleet that he would either never take a shot at Paramushiro or that if he did it would take so long to assemble that American carrier reinforcements would arrive. I was wrong about Onnekotan, so I'm not going to expend too much more to help Paramushiro.  The Allied fleet carriers departed Kodiak for Pearl.  Three CVEs departed Prince Rupert for Christmas Island.
 
SWPac:  Miller pretty much pulled his aircraft and ships out of the DEI.  Sallys, Bettys, Oscars and Zeros are back, but are flying at long range out of Kendari.  He doesn't have enough in theater, yet, to stop the Allies from advancing.  An Aussie Brigade just finished off the Japanese raiding regiment at Babar Island and amphibious landings have begun at Taberfane.  The Japanese concentrated on suppressing Saumlaki's airfield, but perhaps will switch targets to naval attack now.  Another amphibious group is heading for Aru.  If I can take Taberfane quickly, the Allies will move at once to Babo and Boela.  If they are able to take those bases, then the Allied position in the eastern DEI becomese very strong and threatening.  How will Miller allocate between the DEI and Paramushiro?
 
Burma:  Bombardment at Akyab showed that the Japanese have 200 AV; I suspect they are low on supply, so tomorrow I'll try a deliberate attack; the Allies have about 1000 AV with another 250 on the way.
 
China:  The arrival of a Chinese "army" at Nanning forced Miller to pull back the units that have been sitting outside Liuchow the entire game.  The Chinese at Liuchow will advance to Nanning and I'll see if I can take the city.
 
Strategic Situation:  Miller has about ten days to get his defenses back up to snuff in the eastern DEI.  If he doesn't, the Allies will have made some hay while the sun was shining.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a map of the situation in the DEI as of 4/10/43:

[pat.casey]

I don't have the full strategic picture like you do, but I think you're being a bit too pessemistic about Paramushiro Jima. Seems like if it was worth the cost to take it, its likewise worth the cost to defend it. Giving up on it now only makes sense if you're SURE its a lost cause, and it doesn't look that way to me. You've got a solid LCU garrison in place, its mountainous, and you still have a fleet, albeit reduced.

It looks like you're fixating on the difficulties you are facing (poor efficiency of coast defense units, weak carrier wing, shortage of surface combatants), rather than thinking about your opponent's challenges as well. He's doubtless got his own set of problems, so assuming he's just going to roll over PJ with 20 divisions any day now doesn't strike me as likely. Sure, he might have that kind of LCU reserve and shipping handy, but I doubt it.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Pat.  It's a tough call on Paramushiro.  I have 1000 AV ashore, but supplies are low and will be zilch in a week or so.  I no longer control the air or sea, nor can I hope to do so in the next several months.  Miller can park the KB between Attu and Para, as he's already done several times, and chew alive anything that ventures that way.

So I can hang around and try to do things to aid Para, but in all likelihood I'll end up just reinforcing defeat.

Or I can hide my carriers so Miller has to assume they could intervene, thus he has to remain fully focused on Para and shift my efforts to the DEI, which appears to be an open gate momentarily. I expect it to slam shut sooner or later with the appearance of the Mini-KB, but until that happens the Allies are making important progress there.

In the unlikely event I still hold Para as we draw well into summer, I can send my carriers there and that will permit me to hold the base. I don't expect that to happen.

The quick and relatively easy demise of Onnekotan taught me that alot of things some of us thought were true aren't: (1) CD guns won't tear up an invasion force as they did in WitP and (2) unprepped Jap troops can land in decent shape.

[Nemo121]

Pat is right Canoerebel.

Wars are very rarely won by doing the right thing so brilliantly and so often that the enemy feels compelled to surrender in awe. Battles and wars are won by making fewer egregious mistakes than "the other guy" and hanging in there whilst giving him the opportunity to make more and worse mistakes then you are making... Liddell Hart very much hewed to this line as did Clausewitz to an extent.

Looking at this AAR psychologically you have vacillated wildly from hubris to despair, from coming up with a risky operation to hinting at throwing in the towel if bug x or y means your opponent gets an easier time of it in China or whatever. It seems clear to me that you are making decisions whilst under rather a fair bit of emotional pressure/influence.

Take a step back, realise that following the middle path of engaging in neither hubris nor despair is the best path and, almost most of all, realise that right now you are looking at your problems ( and most assuredly engaging in cognitive distortions which magnify the negatives and minimise the possibilities ) and not appropriately assessing your opponent's problem.

You have paid in blood for Paramushiro. Right now you need to stay the course and gain the benefit of that investment. If you are smart about it and choose to seek out manageable goals then you can reap a significant return from Paramushiro ( holding it isn't necessary for the investment to have been worth it ) in terms of enemy forces committed, enemy forces lost to the weather rules etc.

If, on the other hand, you flit from pillar to post, invading one week and then abandoning the next you will achieve operational success at great cost and then, a la Barca, throw away any possible strategic gain accruing from that operational success. That's incredibly wasteful.


Take a step back, detach your emotions, stop flitting from one extreme to another and realise that putting in a daring attack operationally is an utter waste if you don't commit to it and gain the strategic benefit from its success. Right now you are like Barca or Rommel, doing flashy things which look good on newsreels or history books but throwing away the strategic benefits which would accrue if you properly committed to supporting the operation to its limited, achievable goals --- not the hubristic goals you initially set which were never going to be achieved but goals which can be achieved and are assessed as being achievable without the intrusion of hope as an instrument of operational and strategic planning.

You've put in an attack which, arguably, you should have structured differently in order to gain greater strategic benefit but that's in the past. Now you've got the opportunity to throw it all away with another precipitous decision or the possibility of gaining strategic advantage from a metered committment.

[pat.casey]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Pat.  It's a tough call on Paramushiro.  I have 1000 AV ashore, but supplies are low and will be zilch in a week or so.  I no longer control the air or sea, nor can I hope to do so in the next several months.  Miller can park the KB between Attu and Para, as he's already done several times, and chew alive anything that ventures that way.

So I can hang around and try to do things to aid Para, but in all likelihood I'll end up just reinforcing defeat.

Or I can hide my carriers so Miller has to assume they could intervene, thus he has to remain fully focused on Para and shift my efforts to the DEI, which appears to be an open gate momentarily. I expect it to slam shut sooner or later with the appearance of the Mini-KB, but until that happens the Allies are making important progress there.

In the unlikely event I still hold Para as we draw well into summer, I can send my carriers there and that will permit me to hold the base. I don't expect that to happen.

The quick and relatively easy demise of Onnekotan taught me that alot of things some of us thought were true aren't: (1) CD guns won't tear up an invasion force as they did in WitP and (2) unprepped Jap troops can land in decent shape.

It doesn't sound easy, and its clearly not an ideal situation to defend from, but you have to consider a couple of things, or at least I'd hope you would:

1) You're defending, so you don't need to control the sea; all you need to ensure is that he can't totally control it. Even with KB there, he'll eventually have to move back to JPN to rearm, which would be your chance to slide in a convoy and drop off some supplies. You're in an "every bit counts" sort of situation now, so even a few thousand here and there is going to help.

2) If he decides to invade, he'll probably bring the kitchen sink, but it can't stay there, especially if it has to fight e.g. he'll run out of ammo/fuel, especially if he decides to bombard with his heavies. You might plausibly send in a number of medium sized DD forces to disrupt him; by '43 the US destroyer are, if I recall, pretty solid and can put a hurting on the Japanese without you having to risk capital units you're short on. Same thing goes double for PT boats if you have any left.

3) By this time in the war you should have a goodly number of air transports, I'll admit I haven't looked at the map recently, but can you air transport supplies in from anywhere else in the alutians? Again, every bit counts.

Like I said earlier, I'm basing my advice here on speculation rather than perfect intelligence, but I'd suggest that at some level so are you. I suspect you're overestimating your opponents capabilities at this point and reacting to him as though he's as strong as you fear.

Consider:

If he's as strong as you fear, what does running away accomplish? You save, probably a few dozen ships that would be lost in a defense effort.

If he's not as strong as you fear, what does running away accomplish? You give him PJ on the cheap, negating any strategic advantage its initial capture gave you.

On the other hand, if you stand and fight it out:

If he is as strong as you fear, you lose, but you'll lose more slowly and keep his strength there. Your carriers are 3 months away, and if he's tied up "fixing" his border at PJ for the next 3 months while you are advancing in the DEI, you'll be in an excellent position in 3 months.

If he is not as strong as you fear, you'll hold the line in PJ. You'll pay for it, but in 3 months you'll have your new carriers AND PJ == win.