Big Guns of the Pacific: FatR (A) vs NY59Giants (J)

[FatR]

Allied capital ship losses so far:

[FatR]

Strategic situation update

Large formations of Japanese ships were detected over last two days south from Saigon. However, after three successful sub attacks against moving transports (one xAK was attacked and hit twice), troop casualties weren't reported. Maybe FOW hides them from and this is an invasion, probably heading to Palembang, after all.

No air or sea Japanese activity is observed around New Guinea. I'm using this pause to move more troops to Port Moresby. Hopefully, this will be enough to initiate a long siege, if NY59Giants decides to land there in January-February after all. Also, now I finally have some Warhawks and Banshee divebombers around, so an amphibious assault won't be so simple. The joint American-Australian surface combat task force will try bombarding Rabaul as a cover operation for Port Moresby reinforcement.

Meanwhile, the first wave of American reinforcements has landed at Pago Pago, Noumea, Suva and Luganville. Engineers started working on expanding ports at the latter three. This is quite a relief. While NY59Giants still can take any of my strongholds in Southwestern Pacific, if he puts his mind to it, this will hopefully require a major fleet operation, supported by KB.

Lexington leaves San Francisco repair shipyard on the next turn. This gives me two USN CVs in Central Pacific. I'll decide how to employ them as soon as KB reveals itself. A raid against shipping in northern Japanese waters seems to be the most promising course of action.

[FatR]

The last several turns saw a chain of events that heavily compromised Allied defenses in DEI and elsewhere.

RO-65 saves the day for the Empire

First of all, my bombardment TF reached Rabaul unnoticed by NavSearch. However, on its approach it was detected and attacked by RO-65 who put two torpedoes in BC Constellation. Not satisfied with the result, the pesky sub returned immediately to hit my poor BC with one more torpedo. Constellation remained afloat for one more day, but the combination of damage and steaming at full speed to get out of Japanese aviation range eventually proved fatal. And yeah, even though my recon showed none of that, Rabaul was full of Netties. The rest of TF bombarded it, destroying around a dozen of planes. Did not prevent Japanese from toasting an AMC and an AP in Port Moresby one turn later. But aside from that, Netties at Rabaul remained relatively quiet so far and missed several more convoys. Still, not a fair trade for Constellation. As you can see, that was a highly valuable ship:

[FatR]

Western part of the Japanese pincer closes on Java

My NavSearch failed to give an advance warning about the muti-TF invasion fleet headed to Billiton and its composition. Only Vildebeests from Palembang were on naval attack and sortied to meet it during its approach and were swatted out of the sky by what I thought was LRCAP of Zeros from Singkawang, but in reality probably were Zeros from light carriers. None got through to Japanese ships.

On the next turn, NavSearch showed no Japanese ships around Billiton, so I sent a TF consisting of BB Warspite, CL Mauritius and a single destroyer to bombard, and also set my level bombers at Palembang, Oosthaven and Batavia on port attack, hoping to impede the airfield construction. Except, pilots who flew NavSearch apparently were blind. Or Japanese were in the spot not covered by arcs. Either way, my ships ran into a battleship taskforce and barely escaped in one piece:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Billiton at 52,93, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Sagami
BB Suruga, Shell hits 2, on fire
CA Mogami
CA Mikuma
CLAA Kiso
DD Sazanami
DD Ushio, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Tadeyame
DD Suruyame

Allied Ships
CL Mauritius, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Piet Hein
BB Warspite, Shell hits 18, heavy fires

Reduced sighting due to 7% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 7% moonlight: 8,000 yards
Range closes to 17,000 yards...
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
Range closes to 7,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 7,000 yards
Japanese open fire on surprised Allied ships at 7,000 yards

I hope Ushio will sink, at least. Warspite proved to be surprisingly resilent, as, even though it took around a half-dozen of 410 mm shells, beginning of the next turn found both of the damaged ships near Batavia, steaming at two-hex speed. They would have been doomed, but, thankfully, Netties from Singkawang and Kates from Japanese carriers entirely concentrated on a large convoy of small xAKLs, that tried to haul supplies from Palembang to Java (something, that I should have been doing from the beginning). The results were ugly.


Just one ship from the convoy survived by disbanding into port in a highly damaged state, but Mauritius alone is worth more than all of the junk that got nailed at Palembang. The last convoy from Singapore also managed to carry 223 RAF Airgroup to Batavia safely and retreated to Soerabaja unmolested.

To save Warspite and Mauritius, I sent CV Illustrious, escorted by all undamaged cruisers with good AA values to escort them. Hermes was left at Soerabaja, as it carries only Swordfishes and has poor AA armament.

Meanwhile, my bombers that sortied to Palembang met with large Zeros CAP and were totally shredded, losing more than 30 of their numbers. All in all, I mismanaged my forces and took large losses for no gain.

[FatR]

...And eastern part of the pincer is not far behind.

On January 16th Japanese landed at Kendari. The landing was covered by Kido Butai, which, alongside with some Betties attacked my ships at Soerabaja.


Afternoon Air attack on Soerabaja , at 56,104
Weather in hex: Severe storms
Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 17
B5N2 Kate x 94

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed, 11 damaged

Allied Ships
BC De Zeven Provincien, Bomb hits 1
BB Beatty, Bomb hits 1
AVP Pollux, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVL Hermes, Bomb hits 5, on fire
AVP Heron, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Port hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 22000 feet
12 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 4000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
12 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 2000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
16 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 5000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
13 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 4000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
9 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 2000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
9 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 5000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
10 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 4000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
8 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 3000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
5 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 2000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Soerabaja at 56,104
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 32
B5N2 Kate x 111
D3A1 Val x 51

Allied aircraft
Sea Hurricane Ib x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 10 damaged
D3A1 Val: 15 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Sea Hurricane Ib: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Ceres, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAP West Point, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Wakefield, Bomb hits 12, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Mount Vernon, Bomb hits 12, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Clan Alpine, Bomb hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
AP Leonard Wood, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
AP Joseph T. Dickman, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
xAK Filleigh, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk


This was (the emphasis on "was") the convoy that returned from Singapore. Japanese attacks were not very accurare, but with this number of planes they overwhelmed the convoy anyway. As you can see, on the second day, Illustrious was in range (and her Sea Hurricanes shot down quite a few of Betties between KB strikes), but her TF or the damaged ships it escorted weren't attacked. However, now they are between hammer and anvil. I don't have fighter assets to protect Soerabaja. Dutch squadrons will just be eaten alive by the mass of Zeros from KB. And now NY59Giants had seen, that there is a ton of valuable ships in Soerabaja and he knows that a british carrier is close. He'll surely move in for the kill. My ships must run from it. Unfortunately, damaged ones (including CA Exeter in Soerabaja, which was wrecked during the second battle of Manado) will almost certainly be caught. And Illustrious must retreat west, where Japanese light carriers lurk. With fighter squadrons mauled by KB raids, she's almost certainly doomed.

[FatR]

Overall, this is probably going to be the end of Allied naval operations in DEI and now I should concentrate on preparing my defenses in Northern Australia and India. Even if the most valuable Allied ships survive, I have no forward bases anymore. Overall, the result is not satisfying. NY59Giants counteracts my stronghold strategy with leapfrogging between potential airbases, and it's clearly going to work, at least in giving IJN ability to operate almost freely in DEI is concerned. We'll see how long it will take to actually overrun my strongholds, but NY59Giants' mastery of logistics, demonstrated so far, leaves me with little hope. It seems, that all of my good luck was spent at Pearl Harbor, because unexpected losses of BB Jellicoe and BC Constellation turned two of my minor victories into major defeats.

I'm not sure, how much Japanese really paid for their advance. My LBA did not do much damage, save for opening B-17s raids - maybe three Japanese transports were hit during the landings. Subs have damaged a CVL and a CL. Carrier aviation put a lot of bombs into 2 BBs, and single torpedoes in two more (although these hits might be FoW). IJN losses to surface actions are not clear. Two big tankers were definitely lost, and a destroyer was possibly lost, but nothing bigger. 2-3 CAs might need a trip to shipyards. I used 6 USN subs for sub minelaying, dropping some mines at Japanese anchorages and approaches to major bases from Manado to Bangkok and created some defensive minefields with Ductch minelayers, but if my mines had any effect, it wasn't reported so far.

Plane losses, however, are still about even, which is good for Allies. I used my bombers for attacking airfields alot, and for naval bombing only sparingly. British bombers mostly flew by night. As a result, my aviation is still in a good shape. As good at it can be at this stage, of course. I'm also not going to expend it right now by throwing planes against the wall of CAP from KB. This will wait until the invasion of Java, when, hopefully, there will be some soft targets. Large Japanese carriers probably can fight off most of my currently-presnt 2E bombers with flak alone.
On the other side of the front, Netties have sunk a ton of ships during this game, but paid heavily for this. Losses of G3M should exceed the production by far and that of G4M should consume it completely, unless NY59Giants had expanded their plants. Also, I hope this culled much of his pre-war pilot cadres.

[FatR]

Rising Sun over Java Sea

Several turns passes since my last post, and now I can safely say, that most of my valuable ships got away from Java. That includes fast BB Beatty, CV Illustrious and those good cruisers that weren't under repair. BB Warspite, CA Exeter and CL Mauritius were bombed by KB planes at Soerabaja, and, although none of them sank, they aren't going to be seaworthy any time soon. This likely means they will be lost. BC De Zeven Provincien which lead Adm. Doorman's taskforce in the fruitless attempt to intercept Japanese light carriers, took three torpedoes, but limpet to Batavia. Damage doesn't seem hopeless, and unless it will be bombed to scrap on the next turn, I'll try to get her to Colombo.


Dutch strike back

After departing with its best ship, Doorman's TF, now consisting of CLs Java and Danae and six destroyers retreated to Soerabaja, on the turn when KB was to the south of it. Meanwhile, Japanese started the invasion of Lautem on Timor. I attempted to combine retreat from the air threat and counterattack, by sending my TF east, to Lautem (and then to Darwin). The plan worked.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lautem at 72,115, Range 6,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CL Noshiro, Shell hits 1
PB Keiko Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Myoken Maru, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Sekiho Maru, Shell hits 15, heavy fires
xAK Taian Maru, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Oridono Maru
xAK Kokuryu Maru, Shell hits 13, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CL Java, Shell hits 4
CL Danae, Shell hits 6, on fire
DD Alden
DD Edsall
DD Banckert
DD Witte de With
DD Evertsen
DD Express

Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!
Japanese TF suspends unloading operations and begins to get underway
Low visibility due to Rain with 39% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Rain and 39% moonlight: 6,000 yards
Range closes to 21,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 21,000 yards
Range closes to 19,000 yards...
Range closes to 17,000 yards...
Range closes to 15,000 yards...
Range closes to 13,000 yards...
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
Range closes to 9,000 yards...
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
Range closes to 7,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 6,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 6,000 yards


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Lautem at 72,115, Range 5,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CL Natori
DD Minazuki
DD Nagatsuki
DD Asakaze
DD Matsukaze
DD Okikaze
DD Shiokaze, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CL Java, Shell hits 1
CL Danae, Shell hits 6, on fire
DD Alden
DD Edsall
DD Banckert, Shell hits 1
DD Witte de With
DD Evertsen, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Express

Reduced visibility due to Rain with 50% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Rain and 50% moonlight: 6,000 yards
Range closes to 17,000 yards...
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
Range closes to 7,000 yards...
Range closes to 5,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 5,000 yards
Doorman, Karel WFM crosses the 'T'


I was forced to scuttle DD Evertsen on the next day, with 91 fires and flotation damage around 80, it was not going to get anywhere. Besides the fact, that Japanese still shoot better, I clearly got lucky there. All xAKs and PBs are either sunk or so damaged, that they won't be able to crawl out of Lautem's port.

[FatR]

Operations in the Pacific

Hornet and Lexington with escorts are halfway between Pearl and Paramushiro, heading to strike at shipping around Hokkaido. Hopefully, NY59Giants doesn't have much naval search assets on Kuriles yet. I pondered, if I can be even bolder and strike at Central Japan, as with two-day turns NavSearch is much less likely to warn the defending side in time to do anything, but decided not to. One carrier already was damaged by Nells, the risk is too high.

Wake and Guam weren't attacked yet. I lost AVD Hulbert to a RO-sub when I tried to resupply Wake.

There were no new landing at Southwestern Pacific and no attempts to interdict convoys to Port Moresby. As a result, it is pretty well reinforced and supplied by now, with 5 Australian batallions in addition to the inital garrison.

However, thanks to the recent events I suspect that paying this much attention to Port Moresby, while weakening Darwin, was a mistake. Supply doesn't seem to flow to Darwin overland at all, so it is now in the red, and the Japanese thrust seems to be aimed at its direction. (Central approach to Java is completely ignored so faI sent some troop and supply convoys to rectify the situation, but I'm afraid that if NY59Giants indeed plans an early attack against Darwin, this will be too little and too late.

Philippines.

Everyone passively defends at Clark Field, except for units that were initally prepared for Bataan. Japanese bombardments initially were causing 150-180 casualties per turn, now their number is up to 220-270. I have much more AV at Clark, 1670 vs. 736 on the last turn, but terrain bonuses to the defender at Clark made me unwilling to counterattack. But considering fatigue and disruption, that Japanese troops are accumulating from their continual bombardment, maybe I'll try a deliberate attack on the next turn.

[FatR]

Kido Butai Visits Darwin

On January 25, almost 200 planes from Kido Butai struck at ships in Darwin's harbor. None were sunk, but Doorman's cruisers and DD Banckert were completely wrecked. By the next day they still are on fire and definitely cannot sail anywhere. Thankfuly, accuracy of Japanese planes still was low. Most of them concentrated on destroyers, with little results.

Meanwhile, Japanese landed at Koepang. This confirms my suspicions about NY59Giants' plans for Darwin. However, there isn't much I can do, while KB hangs around. Two of my carriers approach Curiles, Enterprise approaches Sidney, where, hopefully, shipyard is big enough for her. Saratoga is in Sidney too. Both have understrength squadrons. Fleet in Indian ocean is down to one fast BB and one British CV, which airgroup is depleted as well (BC Howe is in drydock for four months). Only one old British BB arrives fairly soon.

In the Pacific one fast BB (9x406mm) is en route to Noumea, the second recently passed Panama Canal, and the third arrives in 27 days. I will have three old BBs after their first upgrade within a month. The rest are either badly damaged, or undergo conversions already (converted USN BBs exchange their older 127mm guns for 127/38 DP turrets and gain much better AA ratings). For the next two months, that's all I have. Clearly not enough to engage IJN in the region with only one Allied base that can be called such. Unless KB leaves Darwin alone before the invasion, it will be taken very easily. This is my second major mistake (the first was mismanagement of merchant marine in DEI). Looks like the only workable countermove is to reinforce Port Moresby further. Japanese aviation still isn't active in SWPac. Probably losses in DEI (over the last two turns Japanese tried to bomb Singapore and lost around 6-8 bombers to flak, which was a slight consolation for me; overall Nell losses are extreme) force NY59Giants to concentrate bombers there.

[FatR]

Darwin revisited.

KB launched one more strike on 26th. This time attacks were much more accurate. CLs Danae and Java went under, alongside with six various auxilaries and some small fry. DD Banckert was sunk as well. Meanwhile, an attempt to attack a massive concentration of Japanese ships at Biliton with B-17 ended in dismal failure. 8 heavies did not return from the mission.


Trouble is brewing in China

On Chinese front, I was pretty passive after taking Ichang, Foochow and Paotow in the north. My half-hearted attempts to move south of Ichang failed, I should have either committed everything to pursuing Japanese or avoided pursuing them at all. Supply situation is bad everywhere, and this precludes any offensive operation. Meanwhile, NY59Giants cleared Suchow-Kaifenf railroad and pushed my troops from the mountain ridge north of Chengting. As Japanese attempted no decisive offensive on the centrail plains so far, I still hold them, but will retreat if NY59Giants will be able to muster a large force to cut off my positions around Loyang (I belive that between the river and a lot of highly prepared troops, taking them head-on will be quite hard). See the current strategic sitation on the map.


In the southern China, meanwhile, two Japanese divisions are moving against Wenchow (likely). Unfortunately, I made a mistake, and my troops that formed the frontline (now waiting for Japanese at Chuhsien) probably won't be reinforced by my troops at Wenchow in time. Even more unfortunately, the supply situation does not allow to withstand a siege at Wenchow, and Wenchow will be isolated once Chuhsien falls.

[FatR]

Disappoinment on Luzon, payback off Hokkaido

I attempted to attack Japanese at Clark Field, after all. The results were rather disappointing, thanks to the combination of low troop experience and the terrain bonus working against me. Thankfully, losses weren't immediately crippling.


Ground combat at Clark Field (79,76)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 40381 troops, 676 guns, 459 vehicles, Assault Value = 1641
Defending force 27919 troops, 285 guns, 385 vehicles, Assault Value = 833

Allied adjusted assault: 386
Japanese adjusted defense: 1405
Allied assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1980 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 115 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 159 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 73 (10 destroyed, 63 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3375 casualties reported
Squads: 16 destroyed, 292 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 294 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 89 (8 destroyed, 81 disabled)


The carrier raid in northern Japanese waters, however, brought greater success than I ever hoped for. On 27th one of searching Dauntlesses detected a Japanese convoy, but no attacks were launched. Apparently, the convoy did not notice the Allied plane, because on the next day, when my carriers (after significant deliberation) moved closer, Japanese were caught with their pants down. The carnage was unopposed and enormous.

Most importantly, not one, but two convoys of light tankers, about 15 in total, were caught in the sea. All but one were sunk or left with heavy fires and heavy damage, which, in case of tankers, almost always means sinking. Around a dozen of xAKLs and some patrol boats were bombed into scrap as well, but those are just icing on the cake.

While this is no Midway, such terrible loss of tankers will no doubt carry serious long-term strategic consequences. To be honest, I even feel somewhat guilty, as sending CVs so close to Japan in December 1942, is, arguably, a gamey move. I aimed for a small morale-improving success in the middle of the darkest months of the game, and unexpectedly scored an early strategic victory... Well, at least the horrible slaughter of Allied merchant marine around Java, caused by my sluggishness, was partially avenged.

[FatR]

Carrier raids continue to pay off. For both sides.

A Japanese convoy consisting of 12 xAKLs wandered into the range of my retreating carriers south of Onnekotan, apparently by mistake. Intelligence reports only 5 of them as sunk, but I doubt that even one of them can make it back to port. The concept of damage control is apparently foreign for crews of smaller Japanese transports.

Meanwhile, my attempt to evacuate damaged cruisers from Soerabaja ended in disaster. CL Mauritius and CA Exeter floundered and sunk, despite having apparently non-threatening flotation damage (47 for for the former and 29 for the latter) and 2-hex speed. Looks like high system damage - around 80 and mostly caused by KB bombing, in their case - can doom a ship even if it is in no immediate danger otherwise. I should have left them in Soerabaja to serve as floating flak batteries...


It takes a sub to sink a sub.

S-36 encountered what appears to be RO-34 near Obi (north of Ambon) and blew it out of the water with two torpedoes. Notably, both Japanese subs that were certainly or almost-certainly sunk so far, were lost to my subs (one more rammed a mine, if my intelligence is to be believed). Out of two subs that I lost by this point, one also fell victim to a Japanese sub.


China developments.

On December 30, my troops attacked Japanese at Kweisui, in North China, after seeing only two units on defense. There was four, and one of them a mixed brigade. Thanks to low supply levels, the attack was not simply a defeat, but a complete disaster. As the supply situation probably isn't going to improve, I'm pulling my troops all the way back to Lanchow. No need to give NY59Giants free points.

On the bright side, looks like I'll be able to reinforce Chuhsien in time after all. I hope that three (and, by the next turn, four, over 720 AV in all) decent (by Chinese standards) corps with two HQ units for support can hold two unsupported Japanese divisions in forested terrain. If not, entire Southern China will be overrun in foreseeable future.


Minor troubles during cleanup.

NY59Giants started taking minor Allied bases in his rear areas. Guam, Hollandia and Beaufort were taken without any problems. He apparently thought that Guam had decent defenses, because it was subjected to bombardment by a TF that included at least one battleship before the invasion.

At Jesselton, however, to where I pulled all surviving British base forces from northern Borneo, the assault by the fragment of Japanese 81st NavGuard unit was repelled. Not much of a victory, of course, but every little bit helps in these crucial months.

[FatR]

Long-term Allied strategy.

KB has retreated for now, and I might be able to get some supply convoys in Darwin, after all. Still, the chances of holding it against a determined attack seem extremely slim. With the loss of Northern Australia seeming highly probable, I decided not to throw away my naval, air and land forces (even though I actually forgot to include BC Repulse and one old USN BB, which were in off-map transit, in my count several posts above) contesting it. I'll concentrate armored forces to meet any possible Japanese push further south, but Darwin won't receive any further reinforcements.

Instead, Southwestern Pacific will be the main Allied theater of operations. I already have decent footholds at Port Moresby, Luganville and Noumea. Port Moresby will be reinforced further with troops already on the theatre. One Australian brigade and some armor and artillery, including a coast defense unit, are already loading on the ships to be transported there. I'll also send one or two more British base forces, as soon as they arrive in Brisbane. With a lot of American air groups already on the Australian soil, I feel that it's possible to contest the skies against Japanese LBA, at least against whatever NY59Giants can spare from DEI. Noumea and Luganville will be further reinforced with troops from West Coast (I have enough PPs saved to buy some restricted infantry regiments), and I'm also going to move forward some units from Suva. I intend to land troops at Milne Bay and on Tulagi as soon as I have free base forces for them. Maybe even before that, to prevent NY59Giants from taking them by two guys in a rowboat. Most of USN available surface forces, including all carriers, will be concentrated in SWPac from now on, to contest any Japanese attempts to advance that aren't supported by full might of KB and to strike at forward bases when KB is commited elsewhere.

The purpose of this buildup is to secure positions for the push in the same direction Allied counteroffensive advanced historically and - that's why I want to move troops forward ASAP, even if my forward bases will be doomed from the beginning - to open the new theater before DEI is overan completely. If NY59Giants commits a significant force to taking Darwin, this, hopefully, will stretch his forces thin enough to force a choice before SWPac and Java (for the foreseeable future he should have about 4 divisions at most, but at least one, and likely two of them must to go to Malaya, if he intends to actually storm Singapore - as a large Japanese force is moving to the southern tip of Malaya, he probably does). While an attack against DEI from Northern Australia might be much more dangerous and hard to contain, as multiple AARs evidence, this opportunity is likely lost. I don't want to throw my forces piecemeal right into Japanese grinder or to engage IJN many hundreds of miles away from any decent base, so the only logical course is to prepare for the eventual comeback in the theater which is - if my speculations are correct, of course, but the direction of Japanese push makes me practically sure of that - will be largely ignored by the enemy for several more weeks at least. Also,

[jrcar]

Good choice on Darwin, early on if the Japs want it they can have it, unless you can get about 3 Allied divs there with lvl4 forts it is not secure.

Instead of Luganville and Noumea do one. Hold one in strength, not two weakly. I prefer Fiji as the two bases are close together, it is closer to the West Coast, and the reefs restrict approaches giving your air more of a chance.

Noumea is 3 bases to hold, and they are further apart.

Remember once the Japanese are ashore with 2-4 div you will not stop them. A 2 div assault is the minimum you have to defend against, if you can't then don't risk it.

Otherwise move all those troops to NZ and wait for an opportunity. That is what I did, I only stepped forward once I had enough to secure Fiji against a 2 Div assualt (remember KB WILL BE THERE as well).

Cheers

Rob

[FatR]

I slightly expanded my reasoning above.

The idea is, thanks to the recent developments, I actually want NY59Giants to come and engage me in SWPac. If he aims for Darwin, his forces must be stretched pretty thin. He did not attack any of the major oil centers except Miri yet. And most of them (all but Tarakan), now require a brigade-sized assault force to take. His LBA certainly is stretched, as there are no signs of air activity in Rabaul for weeks. Hopefully, early Allied activity in SWPac will force him to divert some forces there, thus slowing down DEI conquest and exacerbating Japanese oil difficulties - which just became considerably worse, thanks to losing 13-14 small tankers in two days. This might be just wishful thinking, of course, but I'm willing to try. And if he ignores my moves until DEI is finished, I'll have more forward bases to exchange for time and strong defenses behind them.

But I admit, part of me just does not want to win by turtling until the end of 1942, when, in this mod, I'll have 11 USN CVs. Certainly, American carrier admirals should be encouraged enough by their recent successes to seek new battles))). But I'll probably take your advice and concentrate the lion's share of US forces in one base. Of course, adjustments will be made depending on how well my fleet performs.

EDIT: This might be somewhat contrary to my thoughts on strategy at the beginning of the game, but, well, we all learn. And what I really feared then was Japanese blitz against nearly-undefended positions. By now, NY59Giants still can take any of my major bases, but not without committing KB, large surface fleet and significant ground forces for a relatively protracted campaign.

[FatR]

Revenge of IJN

Kido Butai reappeared on February 2, and struck Darwin again, which confirms my suspicions. It seems, NY59Giants refueled and rearmed it in Kendari. I need to remember, that Japanese have more auxilaries in this mod.

Anyway, Japanese CVs returned just in time to sink two small convoys that attepmted smuggling some supplies to Darwin. Which means that the end in Northern Australia will be swift. The port was pounded as well. Damaged S-38 and some of the surviving auxilaries were sunk.

Meanwhile, large Japanese convoys are approaching Makassar and Tarakan. I have nothing to contest the landings, as almost all of my surface forces have retreated to Colombo, and most of my aviation lacks range.


Air war over Java.
My fighters at Batavia aren't suppressed yet. Having some Hurricanes at last definitely helps. While I take significantly heavier fighter losses, pilot survival rate remains high, and Allies still have enough planes to keep meeting Oscars and Zeros in the air. And on the last turn 7 Betties decided to fly unescorted to stike my minesweeper at Batavia, providing my pilots with 7 easy kills.

[FatR]

February 4-5 - Red tide.

NY59Giants apparently managed to solve his logistical and shipping difficulties excellently. In addition to invasions of Tarakan and Makassar, there is the third landing fleet heading down Makassar Strait. I'm not sure about its target. In addition, SigInt confirms my old suspicions - there are units on ships heading for Darwin right now. KB continues to pound Darwin, making any sort of reinforcement or resupply impossible, so I've started evacuating it. My fighter force is being slowly overwhelmed on Java, and at Port Moresby Zeros suprised my Warhawks, which were set at low altitude for bombing Lae. However, Japanese operational losses more than offset this, at least as far as the total number of lost planes is concerned. Soerabaja port was bombed by a large force of Netties, but Warspite drew most of their attention. It still remains afloat, despite 99 Sys damage.

In China, Japanese troops have stopped before Chuhsien. NY59Giants also moved 800+ AV to Tsiaotso, defended by the Chinese force of similar strength, and bombarded there for several turns. However, so far his artillery had practically no effect.

[FatR]

February 5-6: Plans revealed.

Japanese invaded Darwin on 6th, and what an invasion it was! Both 4th and 21st divisions and five armored units, never mind support. Yamato and Musashi bombarded the port and KB continued pounding everything in sight. Considering how pitiful my forces were by that point (I started evacuating them to Katherine two days before) and their lack of supply, that was a gigantic overkill. Also, this suggests, that NY59Giants might have intentions to launch a major overland campaign in Australia. That would be a blessing, in the long term. However, he might just load some of his troops right back after taking Darwin...

Tarakan was taken on this turn. A fragment of 38th division landed there.

At Port Moresby, Betties raided my supply convoys and two flight groups of Warhawks failed to get past their escort, even though the number of kills in the air was almost even. I lost three more xAKs.

At Clark Field, Japanese bombardment dies out, likely from fatigue. Allied casualties were slim for the last two turns. Considering that all potential reinforcements for Luzon are busy elsewhere, the siege will drag on well into March, at worst, even despite the poor situation with supplies.

In China, Chuhsien was subjected to a fierce air bombardment, with at least 150 sorties per day. As usual for NY59Giants, most planes targeted the airfield, probably to take out supply depots. Meanwhile, Japanese troops are apparently trying to move into hex between Chuhsien and Wenchow. I started moving reinforcements to this area from other garrisons in South China (they will be replaced by troops from Central China), but these troops won't arrive in weeks.

[FatR]

Statistics update for the second month of the war:

[FatR]

Detailed aircraft losses.

As you can see, while Japanese naval aviation continues to wreak havoc on my shipping, it pays heavily for this. Unfortunately, my attempts to bomb forward airfields at night don't work anymore, as NY59Giants now uses Ki-27 units to fly night CAP. While they do not kill any of my planes, any sort of CAP seemingly reduces night bombing accuracy to nothing.



The number of Val losses actually is lower than it was on the first month. It seems that AA claims over Pearh Harbor were revised and toned down.