Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

4/11/43 to 4/16/43

Gents, thanks for the thoughts and suggestions. I read them carefully. Unfortunately, the Allied situation in NoPac is so weak now that I truly don't have the option of duking it out. Miller's carriers, ccmbat TFs and LBA control the sea around Parmushiro. Nothing gets in unless Miller makes a mistake. I'm also down to fumes as far as combat ships go. If I'm not very careful I won't have enough to allow me to create carrier TFs when my fleet carriers begin arriving next month. Para is not within air transport distance of Attu, so that is also a no go. You guys aren't privy to many, many details that factored into my decision or I think you might nod your heads in agreement.

NoPac: Supply at Parmushiro is down to 4,000. I tried to sneak in two LSTs while the KB was away, but subs claimed one LST and the escort SC and the other turned back. I'm going to try to give the appearance of activity and defense so that Miller remains convinced he has to act decisvely and give his full effort up here. An important part of the equation is keeping my carriers hidden so that he has to allow for them here and elsewhere.

Carriers: I think I may post them someplace like Pearl or Christmas Island - a central location while I await arrival of the fleet carriers and CVLs. I'm convinced now that I won't be able to advance any further anywhere until I have a stout carrier force. So no risk-taking until then.

SWPac: A bit of carnage in the eastern DEI. I think I came out on the short end; Miller thinks he did. He sent in a reinforcement convoy for Taberfane, covered by a Mini-KB and combat TF. At the same time I had a TF unloading at Taberfane and other, smaller TFs unloading at nearby Aru and Kai. I had also detailed a combat TF to visit Taberfane to protect my transports. The resulting convergence of forces was weird: (a) Miller's combat ships arrived first and tangled with my transports, sinking most of them; then his combat ships withdrew and mine came in an tangled with his transports, ravaging them. Them Miller's CVE Kates (armed with torpedoes) finished off a goodly number of ships at Aru and Kai. I really need Taberfane, so I'm going to wait for the coast to clear and then send in another big amphibious force; but that's as far as I go until the carriers arrive in August. I'll have to be satisfied with building Saumlaki, Taberfane, Aru, and Babar. Darwin just went to level six port and will reach level nine airfield in two days. This should really bolster Allied ability to coontrol the skies out as far as Saumlaki (except when Japanese carriers are present in numbers). I'll continue gathering all troops possible at Darwin - there's already a huge Army there. I'll also try to think ahead to have troops properly prepped for future targets in the DEI.

Akyab: Back-to-back deliberate attacks couldn't quite reach 2:1 odds, but the Allies should prevail here in a week or so. I may then use political points to change the restricted Indian units to Burma HQ so that I can penetrate deeper into Burma, rattle my saber and bang my drums, and see if I flush Miller through smoke and mirrors.

China: The Chinese will try a deliberate attack at Nanning tomorrow. They greatly outnumber the Japanese garrison, but I'm not counting my chickes. 2000 AV at 45 experience will probably lose to 350 Japanese AV.

Hidden Consequences of the Recent Carnage in NoPac and SWPac: The Allies have paid greatly, greatly, greatly in ships during these campaigns. They've also inflicted some damage on the Japanese, but here are a few harder to pinpoint or quanitfy benefits:

Air: Over the course of these battles, I believe the Japanese have lost perhaps 500 more aircraft than have the Allies - this in all theaters. This hasn't had a noticeable effect on pilot quality, but perhaps Miller's noticing it from his end.

Subs: Miller has pulled his subs back to the hot points - mainly eastern DEI and NoPac. However, most of the big ports and key lanes of transport have been clear for many weeks: West Coast, sea lanes to Tahiti and on to NZ, Sydney, Brisbane, Townsville, Melbourne, Noumea, and Pago Pago have all remained blessedly clear. The Allies should take Baker Island within the week and that will permit the Allies to shift the main transport lane from West Coast - Tahiti - Auckland to West Coast - Pago Pago - Noumea.

Japanese Logistics/Fuel: I have to believe Miller's been taxed in this regard. He's had ships flying from DEI to NoPac and moving back and forth to meet different emergencies. Hopefully his fuel stocks have been sucked dry here or there putting pressure on him.

[JeffroK]

I cant remember which Johnson it was who defended the South so succesfully, all the way to Atlanta.

As soon as you are out of Paramushiro, Miller moves elsewhere and your same arguments to evac Paramushiro will be seen at Taberfane, Babar, Saumlaki etc

[dekwik]

mmmmmm... not really. Para is on the end of a pretty long string. NOt so at Saumlaki

[Canoerebel]

For just three more months Miller has the ability to achieve supremacy wherever he chooses to commit his carriers. For now, he's selected NoPac.

It would be tough for Miller to seize Saumlaki even if he committed the KB now for the reason dekwik alludes to - Saumlaki is supported by other bases, the most secure of which are Darwin and Bathhurst Island. The Allies are continuing to build each of these and Darwin, a level nine airfield, is just seven hexes away. The Allies will have 200 4EB and 250 fighters based there.

By the time Miller is finished at Paramushiro the American carrier reinforcements will be coming in. At that point Miller will no longer have the unilateral ability to achieve supremacy wherever he chooses.

The Allies had achieved strategic surprise in NoPac and were able to put ashore the forces I wanted (though not the supplies) at Onnekotan and Paramushiro. Had Onnekotan and it's CDs torn up Miller's counter-invasion force as I had anticipated, Parmushiro wouldn't even be vulnerable. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case.

I committed everything I could to the defense of Paramushiro, committing the remaining West Coast BBs and combat vessels, and as a result lost Tennessee and West Virginia. I can't afford to lose any more unless there appears a reasonable chance that the cost would be worth it.

[Bullwinkle58]

I know I won't be able to change your mind, but I'd join other, more experienced strategists, in opining that you not give up on Para, purchased at such a price.

Why? Leverage. Simple financial concept, works with navies as well. You lost an SC and an LST? So what? You made him keep much, much larger combat forces there looking for that SC and LST, at the cost of fuel, system damage, and time. For a tiny investment of two ships you have already (and will get more of in droves), you kept a large portion of his fleet in waters that do him no good except to prevent you doing no good to him.

He must keep supplies out of Para. for months to come if you commit to staying. You only have to get lucky once or twice a month. You have hundreds of xAKLs all over the map, and scores of SCs. Run an xAKL/SC combo in there every other day. Force him to patrol for them, to keep STFs there to stop them. Mix it up and send three one week, etc. Use your leverage. He has to be lucky all the time. You only have to be lucky once or twice.

Meanwhile, do what you're going to do in the DEI. But don't throw away the foothold you purchased at such a high price over twenty or thirty more merchants.

[Canoerebel]

I have to keep up the appearance that Paramushiro is "the real thing," so I'll continue to send supply transports and perhaps I'll try to slip in a combat TF just to make some noise.  But I don't have many AKLs left - go back and look at the number of ships I've lost (post made on previous page) and you'll see that I've stripped the cupboard nearly bare.
 
The Allies gave it their best shot.  We got the men ashore.  I thought that decided the battle because I thought the CD units at Para and Onne would decimate any Japanese counterinvasion.  So I thought I could win the battle and committed everything I had - losing six BBs and something like 150 transports in the process.  Now I'm nearly out of ships - so low that there's no way I can do anything meaningful.  More importantly, based upon what happened at Onnekotan Jima, I know that Para can't hold against a committed Japanese counterattack.
 
If I thought there was any realistic way to hold Paramushiro I would commit to a suicide struggle.  I would do whatever it took to hold the base until the Allied carrier reinforcements arrive in July.  Allied CD forces seem to be much, much less effective than they were in WitP, however. That, the fact Miller got many garrison reinforcements when I stepped foot in Japan (allowing him to mount a big counter-invasion much sooner than othersie), and the much greater-than anticipated ship losses has left me unable to have the remotest hope of accomplishing meaningful at sea or in the air around Para.  The best I can do is string things out so that Miller has to give it his best shot. If he dallies, or if he runs into bad luck, I'll re-commit.  The Allied carriers will be at Pearl, and all the combat ships damaged during the invasion are repairing at Seattle.  So in six weeks or so the Allies will have a pretty potent combat force in NoPac. 

[janh]

Interesting AAR, very interesting.  Is your opponent posting his side?  I couldn't find anything, so I will take the freedom to comment on your strategy without disclosing anything.

I agree with Bullwinkle58.  Your Kurile Operation involved too many forces and was clearly devised as a major offensive, not as a economy of force measure or a mere demonstration (a quick raid and withdrawal).  You could be a bit steadier on your efforts, and you should be able to gain the initiative now -- just don't surrender it so easily again and decide what character your operations are supposed to have.  Miller seems to know well how to "play you".   It actually will probably not matter so much in the end whether you run the Kuriles as demonstration and focus your center of gravity to DEI, or whether you consider Para an economy of force measure to bind and attrit him or even turn it into your main operation.

I think you presently are at the turning point and skillful management of DEI and NoPac will keep him off balance as he is already.  His first naval counter-attack shows the high cost he pays for such "unprepared" tries to break up your operations before they solidfy -- and with every week that passes he has less options other than to counter immediatly and hit your forces while the operations are still in progess and vulnerable -- like a fast counterstrike into airborne assaults.

Presently he can still take time to concentrate, but DEI and NoPac are so far apart that -- despite inner lines -- he simply will have to split his forces again if he doesn't want to loose in one theater soon.  You could even worsen his problem by applying a little (naval/air) pressure in the India/Burma AO or at Rabaul -- this could be done with small TF's, an economically way of binding is forces and keep him off balance, and guessing as to your main (==sustained) axis of approach. 
Attrit him at Paramushiro as best as you can.  Maybe you can even hold?  If nothing, you gain time, and the initiative since he is already reacting.  Further, he must violate the principle of concentration of forces, or he has to switch over to a holding/securing stance in the DEI, thus surrendering local initiative also there to you.  Since games don't include the political level, it is ok to go through the "what-if" scenario and see whether you can hold Paramushiro.  There is no politician in your back starting discussions about a peace offer...

I would avoid putting valuable assests in spots where they presently are of little value -- such as your carriers at Pearl.  It is too far for them to react to any opportunity fast enough.  Since they are weak, I wouldn't split them permanently, but I would keep them closer to an AO -- be it NoPac, or DEI.  Maybe I'd send a CarDiv to raid an island in Centpac, and keep the bulk hidden near the Kuriles.  Or send it to West Oz, and carefully make use of it to draw the KB back to a theater, where LBA can better leverage the present weakness of your carrier force. 

Just my $0.02.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have to keep up the appearance that Paramushiro is "the real thing," so I'll continue to send supply transports and perhaps I'll try to slip in a combat TF just to make some noise.  But I don't have many AKLs left - go back and look at the number of ships I've lost (post made on previous page) and you'll see that I've stripped the cupboard nearly bare.

If I thought there was any realistic way to hold Paramushiro I would commit to a suicide struggle.  I would do whatever it took to hold the base until the Allied carrier reinforcements arrive in July.  Allied CD forces seem to be much, much less effective than they were in WitP, however. That, the fact Miller got many garrison reinforcements when I stepped foot in Japan (allowing him to mount a big counter-invasion much sooner than othersie), and the much greater-than anticipated ship losses has left me unable to have the remotest hope of accomplishing meaningful at sea or in the air around Para.  The best I can do is string things out so that Miller has to give it his best shot. If he dallies, or if he runs into bad luck, I'll re-commit.  The Allied carriers will be at Pearl, and all the combat ships damaged during the invasion are repairing at Seattle.  So in six weeks or so the Allies will have a pretty potent combat force in NoPac. 

Well, my basic point was to make him continue to commit large numbers of forces (and fuel/time) with a very small commitment of your forces. It sounds like you'll try to do that. It's the best thing you can do to help out in the DEI. Small force, large leverage. I agree if he wants it he can have it, but if making him believe you still want it is the best you can do with your currrent ship inventory then by all means do that. Pin him down with small investment is all I'm saying.

As fo rthe CD stuff, as a "veteran" of the long PH CD thread, which may have led to the "air thread" which made many of the devs decamp from the forums, I don't want to beat that horse. I'll only say that, yes, it seems Allied CD is less hairy than in WITP, but the truth lies in examining the individual TOEs, as I only did when that other thread got busy. A lot of what's tagged as "CD" in the DB, rellly isn't anymore. It's mobile arty in unified LCUs, along with organic defenses, some observers, some AA, etc. Other CD is "true' CD--integrated fire control, static emplacements, BIG guns, etc. I think DB limits make the devs use the CD tag as an umbrella, but a lot of CD is really not fit for anti-ship use, either in numbers, ranges, penetrations, or soft attack defenses. And within the Allied, especially the USMC's, CD units, there is a huge variation in devices.

It seems that, re island defense, forts and supply are kings, HQ's are queens, and CD is a bishop at best. That first counter-attack, while the landing forces have huge disruption, is your best bet to throw them back into the sea.

Anyway, motor on. This AAR is still interesting. You'll feel differently when you get those new carriers, and by late 1943 you're getting DDs and DEs in blocks of a dozen every few days it seems.

[crsutton]

I think it was Joe who wrote early in this process that more than WITP, AE is a naval game. That is he who controls the sea lanes will dominate. Your points about Miller and the KB show this to be true. Until you reach carrier parity, he is going to be able to dictate the war.

Lesson no. 1 for all Allied players. Give a lot of thought about how you use your carrier resources in the first year of the game. Lose a few of them early and you are out of offensive options for quite a while.

In May of 42 my pbemail opponent has invaded Northern OZ. While making me quite nervous, I am beginnin to think that unlike in WITP invading OZ is a serious mistake for Japan. I know holding Darwin creates a buffer for the DEI but it opens of a free land front where the Allies can fight Japan every day without risking major fleet assets. Combine that with land campaigns in China and Burma and it has to eventually put too much of a drain on Japanese resources. I know he may go for Sulva and Noumea but I am now thinking that I should not worry too much and only fight him there if I can really nail him.

[Canoerebel]

Interesting comments, gents. Thanks. I'll give the entire matter Para defense further thought, including how best to use and position my carriers. I remain convinced that my analsyis is right, but I'll re-examine everything.

crsutton is right about Allied carriers. Look at the difference between this game and Q-Ball's game. In this game I took more chances with my carriers. It resulted in some gains, but at great cost. In comparison, Q-Ball still has his carriers and, as a result, has parity in the DEI. His advance in late '42 has gone smoothly while mine has been very costly and halting.

[Q-Ball]

I think jwilkerson is dead-on about AE being more of a Naval Game then WITP. I personally think this is due to just one fact: That LBA from a ship-killing perspective is less effective in AE.

In WITP, the IJN LBA relied heavily on the torpedo. Any size-4 airbase, and any size-2 if you count Kates, could rain 18-in death on any Allied ships in range. My observation is that torpedo planes get far fewer hits in AE, and we all know they have fewer platforms to launch from. (I will say that with fewer hits, torps seem to do more damage in AE).

The Allied LBA is also less effective at ship-killing. Pilots need to be specficially trained for NavB to have any chance at all, and it seems like bombs are more likely to bounce off in AE than WITP, and generally do less damage. I have seen 1000lbers bounce of BBs, which didn't happen in WITP.

Add to this the fact that it's more difficult to keep many airbases supplied, and with adequate AV, due to port limits.

All this means AE is less about the LBA, and more about the fleet. Which is a good thing. WITP was all about the air war, and fleets were almost a supporting role.

In my game with Cuttlefish, I decided early that I was only going to commit my CVs in situations where I was 100% sure that KB could not intervene. I stuck to that until late 1942. Even if a CV exchange is inconclusive in 1942, it generally results in alot of downed aircraft; even though that's bad for Japan from a pilot perspective, the USN CVs will be out of action for awhile if they suffer large A/C losses, because the replacements are low.

Finally, the Allies had an advantage in WITP with the respawn rule; this allowed you to be more profligate with your ships. It is debateable how much an advantage this was in CVs, but it was absolutely an advantage in cruisers; the Allies got way more cruisers in almost every game as a result of that rule, and earlier too. When Adelaide becomes a Baltimore or Cleveland Class cruiser in mid-1943, that helps the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

4/17/43 to 4/20/43
 
NoPac:  Okay, gents, you win - I'm sending my carriers back to NoPac.  They'll take station at Kodiak Island while I begin to formulate some kind of plan to try to get some supplies to Paramushiro in a meaningful way.  This will probably mean trying to slip in some amphib-loaded AKs and AKLs between Jap raids.  It will take me a good ten days or two weeks to get everything in place.  Right now the KB isn't around and small Japanese combat TFs make occassional runs at Para, so it might be possible to get to the island.  To me, the most important benefit of this will be to keep Miller focused on NoPac, because it's clear that he won't be able to stop Allied progress in the DEI without help from his "big boys".
 
DEI:  Miller has pulled his combat ships and carriers back to Ambon, Kendari, and/or Soerabaja.  He must be having issues with fuel or replenishing ammunition on his ships, else I think he would keep them closer to Taberfane and Saumlaki.  Frustrating me is the fact that whenever I choose to advance he happens to send his carriers forward at the same moment; and whenever I decide to hold off it turns out he's gone for awhile.  My timing is awful!  But I think the battle for the control of the chain of islands - Babar, Saumlaki, Taberfane, Aru, and Kai-eilenden - is swining in favor of the Allies due to the mammoth presence of Darwin.  This airfield just went to level nine, giving the Allies the ability for unlimited aircraft.  So I've got B-17s flying ground missions vs. the Japanese at Taberfane, B-24s flying airfield missions vs. Ambon (and occassionally Kendari), fighters providing CAP, recon checking out Lautem, Dili, Taberfane, and Ambon; patrol aircraft; and transports to shuttle troops to Saumlaki (and to Aru, Kai-eillenden and Babar as soon as those fields go to level one in a week or so).  SBDs at Saumlaki took a crack at some CVEs, but missed and got chewed up.  4EB from Darwin and Merauke messed up the Japanese unit at Taberfane so that it failed in the effort to wipe out the Allied landing party.  Things are hot and heavy in the eastern DEI, but I think the Allies can now hold their own within this perimeter as long as the KB is tied up in NoPac.  If (unlkely, but just "if") Miller should send the KB back here, that would permit the Allies to re-supply Paramushiro utilizing carriers for air cover, so that would be nice.
 
Burma:  The Allies have taken Akyab, giving them a big airfield to more easily target various Japanese bases in Burma and even Thailand.  I paid the PP to transfer a big Indian division to an unrestricted command.  A small stack of units will advance down the trail toward Prome/Bangkok just to see if I can rattle Miller's cage a bit.
 
China:  The Chinese actually succeeded in taking a city - Nanning.  There's no supply and nowhere else to go (I don't want to enter Vietnam and by doing so activate the VN divisions).  So I'll pull a few of the big units back toward Liuchow and take a crack at the small Japanese army south of that city.  Again, I'm just making some noise to make Miller wonder down this way.
 
Irony:  Funny that the Allies have advanced in Burma and China, where I really wasn't trying and didn't expect to make progress, but have paid through the nose, ears, armpits, forhead, and belly button as a result of the big, serious, well-thought-out (so I thought) advances in the DEI and NoPac.
 
Score:  Japanese 30,128; Allies 17,910 (as of 4/17/43).

[Q-Ball]

It's clear to me that Darwin is on the must-take list for the Japanese, right up there with Port Moresby, maybe moreso. You can't leave it alone, it will kill you.

[Canoerebel]

Q-Ball, I agree with you wholeheartedly about Darwin.  As of April 1943 it has become the single most important hex in my game with Miller.  There are other bases that are particularly important for one reason or another - among these are Midway, Pago Pago, Noumea, Townsville, Perth, Chittagong, and Akyab - but in my game I'd say Darwin is by far the most important.  Were I a Japanese player I'd definately choose to invade Darwin over Port Moresby if I had to choose between the two. I'd rather have an Allied player drooling over PM and an advance through the Solomons/New Ireland/New Britain than have that player able to pounce into the DEI from Darwin. DEI is the heart and soul and guts while SoPac is very distant from heart and soul and guts.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

It's clear to me that Darwin is on the must-take list for the Japanese, right up there with Port Moresby, maybe moreso. You can't leave it alone, it will kill you.

It is a must and I think if I were the Japanese player, I would try and take
Darwin out. However, it is a "damned if you do damned if you don't" as it opens up one more land campaign where the Japanese will never win. Just like in China and Burma, big land campaigns will help the Allies as it allows them to grind Japanese infantry units up and eat up resources, while giving valuable experience to the Allied land units. The question is then, can you (the Japanese) stop at Darwin? Cause the Allies can always move up troops and take it back. I am facing an invasion of N Oz in late May but Darwin is too strong for hin to take frontally and he has to mount a flanking campaign via level one ports and airfields. He can build up the airfields fairly quick but not the ports. It is going to be interesting.

The Austrailians are a bit weak but have a great array of mobile units- (recce, tank regiments, motorized brigades and cavalry)-all of them come with with some pretty nifty armor.

[Q-Ball]

You are right, it's a big problem for the Empire. Once you take it, tough to hold....although that requires an overland march from Alice, so safe to say if they are coming, you'll see them coming.

The terrain also doesn't favor Japan, clear terrain all the way to the coast

About all you can do it make the Aussies come get you, although if they come too strong, no reason you can't land somewhere on the Australia coast.

The big problem is that it's logisitcally too easy for the Allies in that region, easier than historical for sure

[Canoerebel]

How can you balance Darwin's potential, though?  It's already possible for the Japanese to take Darwin (or PM or Townsville) if they make a big commitment.  That's not entirely unreasonable given the foreknowledge a player has that Imperial Japan didn't have.
 
Darwin is a big menace to Japan in Allied hands, though that's primarily the case if the Allies forego the historical CenPac/Sopac/New Guinea routes taken by the real Allies.  Had the Allies actually chosen to advance into the DEI with Darwin as the jumping-off point, there are probably two things that would have hindered them:  (1) tough to supply Darwin [in real life, but not in the game it seems] and (2) the Allies didn't want to commit carriers to the confined waters of the DEI where subs and LBA lurked.
 
It's too early to tell if Darwin has too much potential as an airbase, but it's something for players to monitor.

[ny59giants]

A quick comment on NoPac from a novice Japanese player. It is of economic importance more that anything else for Japan to deny the Allies to base bombers from. The amount of Resources generated at both Sakkalin and Hokkaido are significant.

I look at it now as your version of G'canal. A question of logistics and whether you can get enough there to hold. Convert DDs to APDs to form Fast Transports. Kates have a very difficult time hitting those highly maneuverable ships and waste precious torpedo sorties. I've seen 1/2 a Japanese CVs torpedoes wasted trying to hit DDs. [8|]   

[Canoerebel]

Here's the situation in the DEI as of 4/20/43. Allied B-24s from Darwin just destroyed 60 Japanese aircraft at Ambon, following up on previous successful raids. These bombers pose a risk as far as Kendari, and I doubt Miller can gain control of the air in this region unless he brings the KB back.

Once the Allies build the bases at Babar, Saumlaki, Kai-eilenden, Aru, and Taberfane (the latter is currently held by the Japanese) big enough to support 4EB, the Alles will be a threat as far as eastern Java and southeastern Borneo.

Taberfane is the key. As long as the Japanese have it the Allied position simply isn't secure. Seize it and suddenly the Allies have a "ring of fire" lined by these bases, Merauke, Darwin, and Bathhurst Island. With powerful LBA based that far forward it will be possible for the Allies to begin moves on Ceram, western New Guinea, and the Moluccas.

While Paramushiro has Miller's full attention, the Allied position is too tenuous there to count on. But it has pulled so much away from the DEI that I am confident that this is where the Allies begin the march to victory.

[DW]

I know you said you couldn't fly supplies into Paramushima, but I'm not clear on exactly why.

I don't have the game, do I can't just load it up and check ranges and things for myself, but would it be possible to fly in supplies from Attu with the Coronado unit you said you have Paramushima?

You said you could patrol as far as Omanto.  That's 22 hexes from Paramushima.

It's only 17 from Attu to Paramushima.

I know loading effects range and all that and, unless you've built it up, Attu doesn't have much of an airfield.

But, it seems to me that if you put some supplies on Attu, along with your Coronados and a sea plane tender, you might be able to get some supplies into Paramushima via that route.

It would only be a trickle, but it would be better than nothing if it would work.

Just a thought.

I'm rootin' for ya.

Good luck.