Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the suggestion, DW. 
 
This is one of those "Sophie's Choice" situations.  The PBYs and Coronados do have the range to fly supplies to Paramushiro, but I've decided that is not my best option for these reasons:
 
1.  The amount of supply would be negligible.
2.  I need the Coronodos to patrol - this will give me some chance to find a window to send supply ships to Para.
3.  Attu is actually at least a level five airfield now.  That only allows a five squadrons to operate from the island -three are devoted to fighters (much needed at this exposed point), one to the Coronodos, and one I swap between patrol (PBY) and recon (long-range B-24).
 
So shuttling supplies would be nice, but I have higher priority uses for the base at this time.

[JeffroK]

What would Miller think if his search planes spotted a large fleet passing Midway heading for Wake, or heading toward the Andaman Is??

Or another forming in the Bering Sea or south of Dutch Harbour.

Shouldnt take a lot of ships, just 1 per TF to simulate your usual Invasion sized fleet.

Sometimes those very long range search planes can set you worrying.

(1 thing missing from playing the AI is the possibility to bluff your opponent, the AI is too dumb to fall for any tricks.)

From above
So shuttling supplies would be nice, but I have higher priority uses for the base at this time.

Iff your priority is to keep the island, every chance to squeeze in a few more supplies is vital, as DW says an AV can increase your basing out of Attu. (5 Sqns for a L5. is that a house rule?) IFF you really mean to keep Paramushiro you need to find every possible way to build it up.

Otherwise dont waste your time with the VLR patrols.

[Canoerebel]

4/21/43 to 4/24/43
 
DEI:  Strangely quiet here - Jap LBA has pulled back, much smaller presence of combat ships (a small CL force did sink an Allied AK and ML at Babar Island on the 23rd), and no obvious effort by the Japanese to reinforce Taberfane or to contest the Allied hold on the nearby islands of Babar, Saumlaki, Kai-eilenden, and Aru.  In fact, recon indicates that Miller might be pulling out his troops at Taberfane, either by air or fast transport.  The ominous quiet combined with the importance of this area and the prolonged absence of the KB from NoPac makes me wonder if Miller is planning an ambush here.  I'm not sticking my neck out very far, though.  Except for small TFs taking shuttling supplies and reinforcements to the various islands I won't take many chances until I have Taberfane.  A small TF of three LSTs and very small APs is carrying part of an Aussie brigade to Taberfane this next turn.  The Allied airfields at Kai and at Aru reach level one tomorrow.  I have so many fighters spread out between Saumlaki, Bathurst Island, and Darwin that I'm running short on fighters to place at these new bases.  They may serve more as patrol/recon stations for awhile.  There is a chance that Miller is pulling back a bit to concentrate of building his line of defense at key bases like Ambon, Kendari, and further to the rear.  The mammoth Allied LBA presence at Darwin, augmented by the forward bases in the islands, may be daunting to Miller.  Allied subs and the SBD unit previously posted to Saumlaki have taken shots at various CVEs and CVLs and missed, but it may have given Miller the willies.
 
NoPac:  Combat TFs pay regular visits to Paramushiro, but no sign of the KB in several weeks now.  The Allis have held Paramushiro for more than six weeks now.  If nothing else the island has served as a magnificent diversion that permitted the Allies to strengthen their grip and build up the bases at the islands west of Darwin.  The Allied carrier TF will arrive at Dutch Island tomorrow.  The CVE TFs are perhaps five days away.  The Allies will have nine CVEs, Wasp, Saratoga, and Victorious.  The plan will be to try to position these and some transport ships NE of Paramushro, await a gap in Japanese combat TFs, and get some supply to Paramushiro.  The most important thing is the supplies, but I wouldn't mind Miller catching whiff of the CVEs. I want him to remain focused up here.
 
SoPac:  The Allies have begun landing at Baker Island, which is held by a Naval Guard unit.  The Allies came ashore with a Marine Reg't, combat engineers, and artillery.  For some reason, the units became horribly disrupted during the landings.  After two days the Marine AV was 0.  So I'm having to stand down for awhile, allow the units to recover, and fetch reinforcements from Pago Pago.  Miller doesn't show much interest in Baker, but this could arouse him to send a combat TF this way.  I want Baker simply to allow me to shorten my supply line from the West Coast to Oz.  Once Baker is taken the route passes through Pago Pago and Noumea rather than Tahiti and Auckland.
 
Burma:  Allied units are moving down the road from Akyab toward Prome rattling their pans and banging sticks together.  There's a chance a move like this in the direction of Rangoon will entice Miller to withdraw from his most forward bases at Myitkina, Schwebo, Lashio, etc.
 
China:  In three days the Chinese will try an attack against the small Japanese army south of Liuchow/Kweilin.  If this is successful, the Chinese will then move south toward Wuchow.  This is more noise making - the Chinese don't have the "oomph" to stand against determined Japanese resistance, but Miller may have some lightly garrisoned bases down this way since most of his efforts were around Changsha, Chengtow, and Sian.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/43 and 4/26/43
 
DEI:  Suspicions confirmed.  An effecitve B-24 strike targeting Kendari destroyed a number of Japanese aircraft on the ground and scored one hit on BB Mutsu.  Two weeks ago all Japanese BBs were in NoPac...now at least one is back in the DEI.  A powerful Allied CA/CL TF caught up with the raiding Japanse CL/DD force that had recently visited Babar Island.  This time the Japanese came to Saumlaki, sank a small ship or two, and then encountered the Allied force.  CL Isuzu went down and one American DD suffered moderate damage.  I think Miller is preparing a big strike in the DEI, or a renewed effort to quell the Allied uprising, so I'll remain cautious in my movements for awhile.  It wouldn't surprise me entirely if the KB made an appearance, but if so that would be a godsend as it would permit me to re-supply Paramushiro.
 
NoPac:  A handful of gritty F4F-4s at Paramushiro wreaked havoc on a series of unescorted strikes by Helens.  I feel sure that Miller had escorts set up that didn't fly, and I know he must be chewing nails.  Not many Helens were splashed, but dozens suffered damage.
 
Subwars:  Japanese subs have been much quieter lately, but over these two days claimed an AK at Diego Garcia, and AKL at Baker Island, and a a TK at Midway.  Three days ago an American sub put a TT into a Japanese CL (Oi?) up around Paramushiro.

[Kwik E Mart]

Interesting "what if" and grand strategy discussions regarding Allied choices in this game...wasn't the main reason the US decided on Solomons/NG/Phil approach because of Mac? That and the obvious fact that much effort had already been expended in Guad, and the infrastructure for such a move was already in place? Perhaps if Guad had happened in this game as in RL, not so much effort would have been expended to expand Darwin and make the DEI "gambit" a legitimit option...I agree and disagree that Darwin could not have been a jump off point in RL...my belief is that the Allies could have made ANY area a jump off point, if they had decided to make the committment to expand it sufficiently. Given the material and logisitic might of the Allies, the Japanese simply weren't safe from ANY corner that a threat could have come from.
Perhaps I'm going out on a limb here, but it seems to me that every AAR I've seen so far has the Japanese keeping the KB together no matter what...what if they made two semi-KB's and tried to deny more than one place at once? It seems obvious that the Allies can make more than one effort at once, at least in AE world...

my 2 cents...

PS - great AAR!

[Canoerebel]

4/27/43 and 4/28/43
 
I've reached an interesting and very delicate stage of the game.  The Allies are in the position they need to be in to travel down the road to victory as long as I don't get careless with my carriers.

DEI:  The Japanese indeed appear to be withdrawing from Taberfane, a major concession that will cede control of the eastern DEI to the Allies.  This, in my opinion, is a major mistake.  At the same time, the Japanese are reinforcing Timor, which at this point is largely irrelevant.   Another major mistake.  The Allies will bypass Timor, their main vector of attack lying to the north and west.  At this point Miller needs to be concentrating on bases much further to the rear - Morotai, Kendari, Soerabaja and the like - rather than sending 4th Div. to Lautem and Imperial Guards to Ambon. These bases will be bypassed and then Miller will have to extract forward units from under the nose of Allied LBA.

The most difficult and dangerous period for the Allies was the move out of Darwin - getting a solid lodgement somewhere to the west is difficult in '43 when facing the full might of the Japanese military.  Miller committed "his full might" and totally stopped the Allies and rolled them back.  But then he stripped the DEI to meet the emergency at Paramushiro.  Now the Allies have a string of bases - Babar, Saumalki, Kai-Eilanden, and Aru (plus soon Taberfane) that can all be built to level four port and seven or eight airfield.  In addition, there's a dot hex on New Guinea's southwest coast (Kai-something) that can be built to level five/eight.  It will take a few weeks to get these airfields up to a level (say four or more) to support heavy bombers, but when that happens the Allies can assert themselves deep into the DEI and will also be able to advance to the next bases, like Boela and Babo, under cover of nearby LBA.  The Allies will be able to move steadily forward through the Moluccas, then the Celebes, and then on to Borneo or the Philippines.

Now that the Allies are firmly established at bases that give them good access to the rest of the DEI, I doubt there's anything that can stop them.  The going will be slow - it takes time to build up dot hexes to level four or five or six airfields - but they have time and engineers.  The only thing that would really slow down them would be to lose carriers and allow the KB unopposed access to the DEI.

NoPac:  For these reasons, Paramushiro is not as strategically critical as it was.  I still want to hold it, I'm still trying to get supplies there, and I will use my carriers in the area, but I will try to remain most cautious and not expose my fleet carriers to the KB.  The Allies will win the war sooner with Paramushiro and will be fine without Parmushiro as long as the fleet carriers are okay. So I need to be very careful.  There's been no sign of the KB in weeks, but I "assume" it is docked in northern Japan, perhaps upgrading.  One thing's for sure, Miller will use them when he comes for Paramushiro, which I expect to happen in May.

Burma:  In the ghost war, the Allied strategy of advancing troops toward Rangoon, with those troops beating drums and banging sticks together, seems to be working.  The Japanese appear to have withdrawn from Lashio, Schwebo, and Myitkina, and may even be pulling back from Mandalay and Meiktila.  Since the Allies don't have enough oomph to go anywhere in this region, this is pretty remarkable. All the British units were pulled out of the theater several months ago, took the rail to Bombay, embarked on ships for Australia, unloaded at Perth, took the rail to Alice Springs, and then marched (or are still marching) to Darwin. So it seems the Allies are about to conquer much of Burma with nearly all of their best CBI units in Oz.

China:  The overwhelming Chinese stack south of Liuchow/Kwilein (3000+ AV) attacked the small Japanese stack (400 AV).  The odds?  1:2.  The Chinese stink.

[Canoerebel]

4/29/43 and 4/30/43
 
DEI:  Taberfane fell to the Allies on the 29th.  Miller is seizing up all the remaining Dutch hexes that littered the area.  But he's shutting the barn door after the horses left.  The Allies will begin landing at the Kai-something hex on the southwestern end of New Guinea tomorrow and will continue shuttling engineers and base forces to the string of island bases between Lautem and Aru Island.
 
Subwoes:  For anybody who thinks I've been whining or exaggerating about the extreme losses I've suffered at the hands of Japanese submarines in this game, here's Miller's latest email comment:  "My subs really are on steroids in this game. The only AAR I read is Q-ball v Cuttlefish, and I doubt Cuttlefish's subs have achieved a tenth of the kills mine have."  On the 29th Japanese subs claimed four ships - two at Adak Island (worrisome because that's where the Allied carriers are parked), one at Darwin, and one at Taberfane.  You Japanese players who aren't experiencing this need to get in touch with Miller to find out what he's doing.
 
NoPac:  Wasp and Saratoga just swapped F4F-4s for Hellcats.  The carriers will move northwest in two days to screen for the transports that I'll try to sneak into Paramushiro.  Still no sign of the KB.
 
Burma:  Allied units are moving toward the (apparently) vacant Lashio and Schewbo. We'll know soon if the Japanese are in wholesale retreat.  I believe they are.  And they're running from nothing but vapor, mist, and ghosts banging on sticks.

[Q-Ball]

This AAR is confirming what I think about my game vs. Cuttlefish: That the Southern DEI is extremely vulnerable for Japan, and a major problem area for the Empire. The British Army is very strong, with piles of extra units available for service in Australia. I don't know what the Brits were up to in India IRL, or the game makes them too powerful. In particular, the RAF has a profligate amount of base forces and airbase support, more than you could ever need in India. It is very easy for the Allies to load up 2-3 British Divisions and send them to Australia or the DEI, no problem.

If you are the Empire, it's better to give up Rabaul then Timor. Really. The biggest problem for Japan is there are so many routes to take once you get established over there.

So, why didn't the Allies invade Timor IRL? Probably because the logistics were much more challenging IRL than in AE.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Subwoes:  For anybody who thinks I've been whining or exaggerating about the extreme losses I've suffered at the hands of Japanese submarines in this game, here's Miller's latest email comment:  "My subs really are on steroids in this game. The only AAR I read is Q-ball v Cuttlefish, and I doubt Cuttlefish's subs have achieved a tenth of the kills mine have."  On the 29th Japanese subs claimed four ships - two at Adak Island (worrisome because that's where the Allied carriers are parked), one at Darwin, and one at Taberfane.  You Japanese players who aren't experiencing this need to get in touch with Miller to find out what he's doing.

Given the extreme results you cite, and the lack of them in other AARs, I'm more convinced than ever that something got hosed in your game in one of the patch/hotfix upgrades. I've put subs in port hexes, including major port hexes, lots of times in two years of game time and have never, not once, had a docked ship sunk.

Hurry up and beat him so you can start a new, fresh game.[:)]

[Canoerebel]

Late last week I invited Miller to halt the game and begin a new one.  He declined.  I don't think I'll make that offer again because the tide has turned enough to make the game enjoyable.
 
Q-Ball, during past history reading I recall information that the Allies hesitated to go into the DEI because of the confined waters and danger from Japanese subs and LBA.   CINCPAC felt that carriers were "big water" ships not well-suited to cruising tight places like the Ceram and Celebes Seas.
 
As for Japanese subs, I wonder whether in this game - before the patches toned down Japanese subs a bit - Miller's sub commanders gained such high experience levels that they are now Uber Captains of the First and Highest and Most Noble and Terribly Exalted Order?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

You are right, it's a big problem for the Empire. Once you take it, tough to hold....although that requires an overland march from Alice, so safe to say if they are coming, you'll see them coming.

The terrain also doesn't favor Japan, clear terrain all the way to the coast

About all you can do it make the Aussies come get you, although if they come too strong, no reason you can't land somewhere on the Australia coast.

The big problem is that it's logisitcally too easy for the Allies in that region, easier than historical for sure

Well, yes and no. It is also logistically too easy for Japan. My game I am looking at about three divisions worth of Japanese moving on Darwin supported by a level one port. That should be just practically impossible but does not seem to be an issue. It is really why Darwin was not invaded. In fact, I would say that supply flow in general is too easy in the game for both sides and that is the one aspect of the game that need serious attention. Not a game breaker as it works for both sides but not historic.

The other factor is that armor-especially allied armor should have significant positive modifiers against infantry in the open. Considering that I have upwards of 300 light and medium tanks in the area and that Japanese infantry units have very little motor support and pitiful AT guns, it really should be another Beda From (SP?). In 1942 a grant tank should look like a king tiger vs the Japanese......[;)]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As for Japanese subs, I wonder whether in this game - before the patches toned down Japanese subs a bit - Miller's sub commanders gained such high experience levels that they are now Uber Captains of the First and Highest and Most Noble and Terribly Exalted Order?

Well, maybe, but I'm playing Allies, and some of my sub COs are Mush Morton et al, who have walk-on-water stats from the start. I just wonder if you guys have a glitch that makes the game "forget" the ships are docked.

[witpqs]

Just a thought - there is a difference now (in AE) between a TF being 'at' a port and it being 'docked'.

[jackyo123]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/27/43 and 4/28/43


China: The overwhelming Chinese stack south of Liuchow/Kwilein (3000+ AV) attacked the small Japanese stack (400 AV). The odds? 1:2. The Chinese stink.

Have you upgraded your chinese generals? A combo of decent generals and trained troops (troops set to 100 for a given target can train up pretty quickly) can make a big difference. I've been able to hurt the japanese pretty decently with some of those units. Also some generals have really lousy 'assault' ratings (the roster shows you what they are best equipped for) and can totally ruin even overwhelming AV odds.

[jackyo123]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


The other factor is that armor-especially allied armor should have significant positive modifiers against infantry in the open. Considering that I have upwards of 300 light and medium tanks in the area and that Japanese infantry units have very little motor support and pitiful AT guns, it really should be another Beda From (SP?). In 1942 a grant tank should look like a king tiger vs the Japanese......[;)]

unfortunately the entire ground model is pretty much broken. I dont think we are going to see any real changes until a new game (hopefully!) comes out.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Just a thought - there is a difference now (in AE) between a TF being 'at' a port and it being 'docked'.

True, but Canoerebel has always described his sinkings as being docked. If it isn't docked it's somewhere in 40 NM of sea room, and I agree that should be fair game. But "docked" means at a pier or anchored close enough in for lighters to work, and that's not happy hunting grounds for any but a slightly insane sub CO. Many times that's surfaced-only water/operating depths. I think it's valid tactics to have subs outside the port, but in the hex, given their size. But to sink an actual docked ship . . . I haven't seen it, and he says it's happened dozens of times to him.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Just a thought - there is a difference now (in AE) between a TF being 'at' a port and it being 'docked'.

True, but Canoerebel has always described his sinkings as being docked. If it isn't docked it's somewhere in 40 NM of sea room, and I agree that should be fair game. But "docked" means at a pier or anchored close enough in for lighters to work, and that's not happy hunting grounds for any but a slightly insane sub CO. Many times that's surfaced-only water/operating depths. I think it's valid tactics to have subs outside the port, but in the hex, given their size. But to sink an actual docked ship . . . I haven't seen it, and he says it's happened dozens of times to him.

Well I understand, but I mean it's easy to think of 'at the port' - able to refuel, etc. as being 'docked' in the old WITP sense. Just occurred to me and I thought to ask.

[jrcar]

An offensive in the DEI WAS planned for late 1942 early 1943. When the decision was made to not do it logistics were the main reason (although in hindsight the link north via road and rail probably could have handled it, I made a detailed post about it a few weeks ago in another AAR).

But in the end the main reason was McArthur wasn't keen and wanted the straightest line to the PI as possible, and focussed on taking the fight to the Japanese direct.

While the road/rail link to Darwin was an issue, just getting stuff through Australian ports was also a problem, and even on the "mainline" rail systems which where two gauges. So if you didn't have to unload and load again onto rail, unload again and load again when the rail changed gauge, unload and load again when you moved to the third gauge, unload and load again onto trucks, unload and load again back onto rail to get to Darwin.

The capacity (through put) was there to do it, but the 5-6 sets of load unload added probably 8-10 days to a journey that was already 8 days long (Say Sydney to Darwin, assuming all connection are made and there are NO delays).

And even today fleets don't like operating in those largely still uncharted waters (the path through the Cape York-PNG has only a few well known choke points and can be easily intercepted).

So the Solomon’s Islands was easier logistically for the US (especially when they owned New Caledonia and could do things how they wanted, not having to deal with Australian warfies), were a shorter distance from the US, a more direct path to PI and had plenty of open ocean.

Finally there were the political ramifications of "liberating" the Dutch Colonies and handing them back to the Dutch colonial masters. This sat uneasily with many Americans


The Brits didn't send stuff because they just didn't have the reinforcements, and the Germany first policy. You can see this in 1944 with infantry replacements in Europe. Even in 1942 the UK was very aware of her manpower pools, and in fact was trying to draw as much from the Dominions as they could.

The Brit high command in India (and I'm no expert) appear to have been more interested in throwing lavish gala balls, and making excuses as why they couldn’t do things (either not enough shipping, or the Monsoon will be here soon) so they could maintain the way things should be.

One things that AE shows is that while shipping was tight, they probably could have done it. And while reinforcements were tight they probably could have done it, and while the weather can be a big problem they probably could have done it...

If they had had the REAL desire to do it.

AE gives us the chance to look at these what if’s. And does a reasonable job (supply delay isn’t well modelled though, neither is link capacity, but it has gotten better).

And moving supply from Townsville to PM/Milne Bay (which was done IRL) isn't much different to moving it from Townsville to Merauke/Timor.

Moving much from Darwin out isn't a problem IRL either, and IRL 30% of stuff still came in via sea to Darwin in 1942 (the railway was almost as busy moving stuff from the port to the inland depots, as it was moving from Central Australia to Darwin).

In my opinion (having driven the Adelaide-Darwin road several times, been to Darwin multiple times, having spent a bit but not a lot of time in the area and having looked into the WW2 logistics of the are) it would have been quite possible to do, IF the will power had of been there to do it.

They one thing I will say though is the weather should have more of an impact than it does.

Cheers

Rob

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


This AAR is confirming what I think about my game vs. Cuttlefish: That the Southern DEI is extremely vulnerable for Japan, and a major problem area for the Empire. The British Army is very strong, with piles of extra units available for service in Australia. I don't know what the Brits were up to in India IRL, or the game makes them too powerful. In particular, the RAF has a profligate amount of base forces and airbase support, more than you could ever need in India. It is very easy for the Allies to load up 2-3 British Divisions and send them to Australia or the DEI, no problem.

If you are the Empire, it's better to give up Rabaul then Timor. Really. The biggest problem for Japan is there are so many routes to take once you get established over there.

So, why didn't the Allies invade Timor IRL? Probably because the logistics were much more challenging IRL than in AE.

[JeffroK]

From Rob,
Moving much from Darwin out isn't a problem IRL either, and IRL 30% of stuff still came in via sea to Darwin in 1942 (the railway was almost as busy moving stuff from the port to the inland depots, as it was moving from Central Australia to Darwin).

As the rail only went to Birdum, it didnt do much carrying from Central Aus to Darwin, it was well used though, up to 247 trips per week in 1944.

In my opinion (having driven the Adelaide-Darwin road several times, been to Darwin multiple times, having spent a bit but not a lot of time in the area and having looked into the WW2 logistics of the are) it would have been quite possible to do, IF the will power had of been there to do it.

The Adelaide - Darwin road, when I went up it in the late70's, early80's was horrendous. Probably worse in Sth Aust with the drier conditions creating thick bulldust and "giant" potholes.

The road north of Alice was a narrow bitumen strip and you had to get off it to let approaching vehicles pass.

Rob mentions weather, it should have a major affect on movement in the top end, some of that dust has been building up for years and turns to glue when wet!

IMHO, IFF the Allies committed everything to a Darwin based approach, they would have found ships to carry goods, engineers to build roads and rails and made this approach succesful.

As it was, Darwin was seen as a backwater, enough had to be sent to keep it safe but apart from nuisance raids into the DEI didnt feature highly in the strategists minds.

PS In AE, I would like to see the terrain of Central Australia detailed a bit more, there are some rivers that should rate higher, MacDonnel Ranges should be a serious impediment to movement etc

Seems a bit open and easy for a mechanised force to operate offroad

[Canoerebel]

5/4/43 to 5/4/43
 
NoPac:  Okay, I need advice and counsel from all the advisors who favored continued Allied effort to support and hold Paramushiro.  This is a ticklish situation - alot can go wrong and I think things are much more likely to go wrong than to go right.  Here are the factors to consider:

1.  The KB hasn't been seen in at least three weeks, but is almost surely parked in northern Honshu and will undboutedly support the (eventual) Japanese counter-invasion of Paramushiro.  The Japanese have at least four BBs in theater and they make occasional, well-spaced-apart runs against Para.  The Japanese have level one airbases at Onnekotan and Ketoi, and bigger bases (level four with lots of planes) at Shimishiri and Etorofu.

2. Given this situation the Allies can probably time things right (relying upon some luck and some skill) to get ships to Para before carriers and combat ships could intervene.  However, given the proxmity of Japanese airbases the Allies need to put up some CAP to protect the transports.  Para is out of supplies, has no working aircraft, and the airfield is currently damaged at 91%/68%.  F4Fs from Attu can fly over and provide support for a short time - until lack of supplies and support renders them non-airworthy.

3.  I can post the Allied carriers (some or all of them) near Para to provide CAP.  Bad timing risks an encounter with the KB that would be one-sided.

4.  The Japanese currently don't know the whereabouts of the Allied carriers, so they have to allow for them to show up just about anywhere.  This is probably keeping Miller honest in important places like the DEI and NoPac.  Using my carriers will give away that cushion and likely result in Miller ratcheting up activity in the DEI.

5.  I could compromise by sending a small CVE force (say four of them) toward Para to cover the supply effort.  These in addition with LBA would likely provide enough protection against LBA.  Of course, their life-expectancy would go down with every turn as Miller would almost surely commit the KB.

So, gentle advisor, is it worth the negatives to try to get supplies to Para?  I don't think it is.  I think I'm better off keeping my carriers "out of sight and therefore in mind everywhere."

DEI:  The Allies have landed a Brit brigade and an engineer unit at Kaimana - the dot hex on New Guinea's southwestern coast that can be built to level 5/8 port/airfield.  No sign that Miller has taken note of this development.  This base is very close to Babo, Boela, Sorong, and Manokwari, so it poses a grave threat to the Japanese.  The Mini-KB is based at Kendari and includes CV Hiyo.  The Allies will send about 36 B-24s at 20,000 feet to hit the port.

Burma:  The Allies took Schwebo and Lashio.  Mandalay is vacant. The Allied army advancing from Akyab will try to cross the river and seize Prome.  Don't know if this is possible, but if I do the Allies will have a nice airbase close to Rangoon.  Once Miller gets his troops back to the Rangoon area this region will stabalize.  The new "reality" will have the Allies holding western Burma (Mandalay, Lashio, Schwebo, Myityina, probably Meiktila and possibly Prome.  The Allies won't have a chance of advancing any further on the ground, but can make life rough for the Japanese at Rangoon by a sustained bombing campaign.

China:  The situation has stabalized here - the Chinese took Nanning but won't be going any further.

Allied BB disposition:  The Allies have alot of BBs in shipyards.  Here's the current disposition:  BC Repulse just finished repairs and is on the way from Capetown to Colombo; Ramilles is in Colombo's shipyard and will be available in 51 days; Royal Sovereign is in a TF that just left Colombo making for Perth (and ultimately Darwin); Mississippi is on active duty at Darwin; Washington (with 14 FLT damage) is south of Noumea on the long journey home to a West Coast shipyard; Prince of Wales is at San Francisco and will be available in 80 days; Revenge and North Carolina are at Alameda and will be available in 60 days; Indiana is at Seattle and will be available in 25 days; Colorado is at Seattle and will be available in 111 days; and California, Massachusetts and South Dakota are on active duty with the carriers NW of Attu Island.

Subwars:  Once again, my suspicion is confirmed that combat TFs with ASW platforms make much more effective ASW TFS than do dedicated ASW TFs.  A strong Allied CA/CL TF sank a Japanese sub while leaving Darwin and got another upon arriving at nearby Saumlaki.  My ASW TFs do nothing; but my combat TFs are pretty effective.