Against the Wind: Cuttlefish (Japan) vs. Q-Ball (Allies)

[Capt. Harlock]

Tojos have more speed and firepower, which is what you want against bombers. I have yet to see how they do against enemy fighters.

In my experience, speed is not as important as durability, because there is no way to approach an American 4E without getting into someone's gunsights. (Approaching the bomber's tail was actually bad because the Japanese fighters were firing into a headwind, while the American tail gunners had a tail wind, and thus longer range.) The Nick should make a reasonable anti-4E fighter until the Irving comes along -- provided it doesn't meet with Allied fighter escort.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

Tojos have more speed and firepower, which is what you want against bombers. I have yet to see how they do against enemy fighters.

In my experience, speed is not as important as durability, because there is no way to approach an American 4E without getting into someone's gunsights. (Approaching the bomber's tail was actually bad because the Japanese fighters were firing into a headwind, while the American tail gunners had a tail wind, and thus longer range.) The Nick should make a reasonable anti-4E fighter until the Irving comes along -- provided it doesn't meet with Allied fighter escort.

I don't believe the Irving has any armor.

[FatR]

The big problem with Ki-45 lies in the fact that only a handful of units can convert to it, and most of them are permarestricted. Two 12-planes squadrons can't make much difference.

[Miller]

I think allied 4E bombers are going to be the biggest problem later in the game. Its mid-43 in my game and it took half of my entire available fighter strength to negate a 50 plane unescorted B24 raid. I shot down 15 and lost the same number to return fire, which seems fair enough. If it had been 150 or 200 B24s I hate to think how many planes I would have lost on the ground......

[Astarix]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

[font="Arial"]The true speed of war is not headlong precipitancy, but the unremitting energy which wastes no time.[/font]
- Mahan: Lessons of the War with Spain, 1899

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12/01/1942 – 12/08/1942

This game has really moved along. We have completed the first year of the war in just four months. I can’t say enough good things about my opponent, who has been unfailing in his energy, enthusiasm, and good sportsmanship.

Of course, he is also a very good player. I am playing two games right now, one against Q-Ball and one against Erstad. There are times when I find myself thinking, after facing yet another inspired move by one opponent or the other, that I really need to start a game against someone less skilled. Someone more like me!

Quail Hunting with Cannon: I sent KB through the Sunda Strait and down into the Indian Ocean. Q-Ball had pickets out, a pair of xAKs that were quickly sunk, but they did not provide enough warning to allow one convoy to get completely clear. It was caught about four hexes out of Port Hedland. Land-based Wildcats flew out to cover it and these took a toll, mostly on the smaller, uncoordinated raids that followed the main attack. I shot down around 17 Wildcats but lost 15 Zeros and 30 Kates and Vals. Three xAPs and a DD were sunk, though two of the APs were small ones. I fear the planes lost were not worth the six ships I sank.

There hasn’t been any sign of the Allied carriers since Wasp took a torpedo in the same area about ten days ago (except for Wasp agian, see below). They may be up to mischief. One thing about his attack in the DEI is that it pretty much tethers my carriers to the area. I worry that he will take advantage of this by moving his own CVs back to the Pacific. It would mean stalling his drive in the DEI but could have advantages for him. KB cannot be everywhere at once, alas, and in my judgment there is nowhere he could attack in the Pacific (except maybe the Kuriles, which are by now strongly defended) that would be worse for me than further gains in the DEI.

Allied heavy bombers staged a big port raid on Soerabaja a few turns back. They were met by a lot of CAP, including the only unit of Tojos I have converted so far – sort of a test unit. Unfortunately Japan does not yet possess a fighter capable of dealing with Allied heavies. Three bombers were shot down and three Japanese fighters lost, though a good many of his bombers made it home riddled with holes. This isn’t completely trivial because those big bombers don’t repair overnight in AE. At least shooting them up limits their attacks, though I long for something with enough firepower to actually kill them.

The Tojos did much better against them than the Oscars did, which makes sense. Tojos have more speed and firepower, which is what you want against bombers. I have yet to see how they do against enemy fighters. One concern, their high maintenance rating, hasn’t been a factor so far. Kept at 40% CAP and 10% rest the unit is managing to keep all of its planes ready for action.

I have grown used to Q-Ball's love of staging port attacks, fortunately, and he didn’t find much there to sink. A pair of xAKs went down and a couple more were damaged but all high-value targets had been moved to Singapore some time before.

Under the Sea: Japanese submarines have had a good week. A few turns ago an I-boat found the limping Wasp on the other side of Australia, near Albany, and put a second torpedo into her. In addition IJN subs sank a good-sized tanker near Carnaveron, an APD near Pago Pago, and a pair of xAKLs near Timor.

Allied subs have been busy but there have not been many sinkings lately. I lost an xAK up around Hokkaido and a pair of small ASW ships in the Luzon Strait, though. On the plus side I got confirmation of another Allied sub lost, bringing the total sunk on the first year to eight.

Cuttlefish,

It occurs to me that his staging of port attacks forces you to stage your ships from farther away, which helps lengthen your own supply lines for your Navy. It also occurs to me that this puts damaged ships at some risk, especially given how fragile Japanese ships tend to be.

With respect to the Subwars, I'm sure you have read other peoples AAR's, but be ready for January 1st. By now, any Allied subs that have been actively operating against you since at least September are going to be very well trained and ready to put the lower dud rate into painful effect. That 20% decrease is going to make if feel like he has magic torpedoes. I don't know how many duds you've experienced, but expect your rate of ships sunk by allied subs to pretty well triple. And be extraordinarily mindful of protecting the KB,as it will become vastly more likely for that one lucky sub attack to actually put an exploding fish into one of your carriers.

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

Tojos have more speed and firepower, which is what you want against bombers. I have yet to see how they do against enemy fighters.

In my experience, speed is not as important as durability, because there is no way to approach an American 4E without getting into someone's gunsights. (Approaching the bomber's tail was actually bad because the Japanese fighters were firing into a headwind, while the American tail gunners had a tail wind, and thus longer range.) The Nick should make a reasonable anti-4E fighter until the Irving comes along -- provided it doesn't meet with Allied fighter escort.

The reason that the Tojo's speed is an asset is because when my Oscars tangle with B-17s I frequently see the message "Oscar can't catch bomber!" Nates are even worse. Watching them trying to catch B-17s is pathetic. They can rarely manage an intercept (and when they do it's kind of like a dog chasing a car - it's gonna go badly for the dog if he succeeds).

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Astarix

Cuttlefish,

It occurs to me that his staging of port attacks forces you to stage your ships from farther away, which helps lengthen your own supply lines for your Navy. It also occurs to me that this puts damaged ships at some risk, especially given how fragile Japanese ships tend to be.

With respect to the Subwars, I'm sure you have read other peoples AAR's, but be ready for January 1st. By now, any Allied subs that have been actively operating against you since at least September are going to be very well trained and ready to put the lower dud rate into painful effect. That 20% decrease is going to make if feel like he has magic torpedoes. I don't know how many duds you've experienced, but expect your rate of ships sunk by allied subs to pretty well triple. And be extraordinarily mindful of protecting the KB,as it will become vastly more likely for that one lucky sub attack to actually put an exploding fish into one of your carriers.

Believe me, I have been dreading the day his torpedoes improve since the start of the game. Duds have saved maybe 50 to 100 Japanese ships so far. It's going to get bad, I know. In the struggle to keep my ships afloat waypoints are my friend. Using them on most of my task forces adds a lot of extra clicks to a turn but Q-Ball knows and camps the obvious shipping lanes and choke points. The best way to avoid his torpedoes is not to be where his submarines are, which is an interesting cat and mouse game all by itself.

[Lord_Martin]

I found this AAR yesterday, and even if I havn´t been able to read all of it, I find it enjoyable. It´s very intresting to read about your struggle and the potential of the game (I´m a new player).

It was sad that your opponent managed to get a foothold in the DEI so easily, even if it was masterly planned. Will this be the end to the japanese expansion, or are you planning to expand somewhere else?

[Chickenboy]

Cuttlefish,
 
Where does the Empire stand in terms of home island resources, oil, supply and fuel after one year?  Can you tell us a bit about your engine and airframe pools?

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Lord_Martin

I found this AAR yesterday, and even if I havn´t been able to read all of it, I find it enjoyable. It´s very intresting to read about your struggle and the potential of the game (I´m a new player).

It was sad that your opponent managed to get a foothold in the DEI so easily, even if it was masterly planned. Will this be the end to the japanese expansion, or are you planning to expand somewhere else?

The era of Japanese expansion is over. I think that knowing when it is over is one of the keys to playing Japan in a PBEM. Stop too soon and you lose opportunities. Stop too late and you give opportunities to your opponent. Right now, in this game, I think Q-Ball would be delighted to have my forces come out from behind my defenses where he could get at them. This is not to say, though, that a counterattack here or there is out of the question.

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]He who knows best how to manage an army is sudden in his movements; his plans are very deep-laid, and no one knows whence he may attack.[/font]
- Hsun Tzu: A Debate on Military Affairs, 235 B.C.

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12/09/1942 – 12/13/1942

Q-Ball continues to nibble around my perimeter. The DEI has been quiet since my last carrier foray but he has sent a marine division to invade Tanna at the south end of the New Hebrides. I thought my Netties at Luganville would scourge any invasion force there but they dropped bombs instead of torpedoes so all they achieved was damage to a few ships. Tanna stood off the first attack but will probably fall to the second.

It’s a pity. I probably couldn’t have stopped the invasion but I could have made it costly. I had everything set correctly for a torpedo attack but I think the base failed a supply check. On the plus side the escorting Zeros handled his CVE-borne Wildcats fairly roughly and none of my bombers were lost.

Tanna was a minor base and I never was able to get my Zeros to sweep Suva from there despite much pleading. But it is another small chink in the armor. As we get into 1943 he will be able to use these places to pry larger holes in my defenses.

Resource Management: as Chickenboy has suggested I think it’s time to look at Japanese industry at the one-year mark. In general things are good. AE Staff informs me that pools of everything are trending upward at a pretty good pace. The only exception is oil; oil stocks have been slowly declining since the start of the game.

Here are the current figures:

Manpower: 1,288,261
HI: 253,771
LI: 12,484
Oil: 1,053,103
Resources: 10,689,473
Armaments: 217,709
Vehicles: 4225
Engines: 3287
Aircraft: 3822

Right now I am shipping about 40% oil and 60% fuel to Honshu. But fuel levels there are pretty good right now so I am gradually shifting more and more to oil. Supply levels on Honshu are obscenely high (Tokyo, for instance, has 1.7
million supply) and I need to devote more ships to shoveling supply out to the rest of the Empire. I tend to get lazy about that, sometimes to my cost.

Engine stocks are good on all of the important types, with the exception of the Mitsubishi Ha-32. I’m currently building 120 a month and this number is no longer enough to sustain reserves. Production will expand.

[SqzMyLemon]

I have very limited playing experience, as my PBEM game shows, but I think you have made a wise choice deciding to stop the idea of future expansion. I'm very curious to see how you decide to wage the defensive side of things now, but as you said, with the chance to launch a crushing counterblow now and then to shake Q-Ball up. Setting up your second line of resistance, and deciding where you'll concentrate on making a stand to make life as hard/painful for Q-Ball as possible will be very interesting and fun to watch. Good luck!

A question, did you expand production quickly at the start of your game, or take it in small steps? I ask because a lot of players caution about a quick expansion at start for the Japanese. I worry that if you don't to a certain amount early when it's easily affordable, the Japanese player may never get a chance to later. An early stop by the Allies like what is happening in your game worries me. Q-Ball is not stopping your resources, in particular fuel/oil, getting home yet, but if he does start gaining control earlier than anticipated, you might not be able to expand production now to keep pace. However, if you have expanded well to this stage and it seems like you've "banked" a lot of resources, you can focus your industry on producing, not playing catch up. I'm really looking forward to seeing how you manage your economy now.

I think Q-Ball has his hands full though, I don't sense a caving of will and your skill will make it very difficult for him!

Sqz

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish
Burma: when last I updated I noted that I was under pressure from three sides in Burma and that my position was in danger of collapse. It was at this point that Q-Ball observed that there was no way, historically, that British and Indian forces could have done this well in late 1942, not against more than five Japanese divisions. He therefore suggested a house rule that restricted British and Indian units not be moved out of India unless PPs are paid.

I was not complaining about what was happening in game but nonetheless I jumped at this like a trout going after a fly. It was a classy move on Q-Ball’s part, I think, to voluntarily abandon a successful offensive in favor of a more balanced game. We agreed to a cease-fire in the region while most of his units pulled back over the frontier. We also agreed that he would keep Myitkyina, since I had defended it only lightly and he could have taken it with available forces.

This accord transforms the game to some extent. I was so worried about Burma I was actually stripping the DEI of reserves and sending them to Rangoon. Those transports have turned back and the DEI will remain stocked with troops. Most of the reserve, by the way, which at the moment consists of the 54th Division and a couple of regiments drawn from Manchukuo, is being held at Davao.

Wow!

Currently (July '42) in our 2x2 game - I have pulled back to Rangoon and hexes within about 4 hexes of Rangoon. The Allies are slowing occupying the void between us but much of central Burma is still a no-mans land.

But interesting change in your game!

We have finally upgraded from 1080 to 1099c and are digesting the massive changes in the rules. I may consider trying to inch forward another hex or two in Burma but do not think I will risk going back into the cultivated areas in the center. Uber bombers will still rule in that area.

I need to start updating my AAR again. Have been busy with other areas, but should have some time this weekend.

[jrcar]

We are paying PP's to move any Indian restricted forces out of India and into Burma against Joe and Nik. That I think is the correct way to handle this.

Joe and Nike falling back so far is... interesting and a surprise. But the ground they have chosen is good defensive ground.

The B-17 rule the skies when unopposed. To stop them you need to sacrifice fighters. I'm waiting to see how Joe and Nik solve this problem...


Cheers

Rob

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish
Burma: when last I updated I noted that I was under pressure from three sides in Burma and that my position was in danger of collapse. It was at this point that Q-Ball observed that there was no way, historically, that British and Indian forces could have done this well in late 1942, not against more than five Japanese divisions. He therefore suggested a house rule that restricted British and Indian units not be moved out of India unless PPs are paid.

I was not complaining about what was happening in game but nonetheless I jumped at this like a trout going after a fly. It was a classy move on Q-Ball’s part, I think, to voluntarily abandon a successful offensive in favor of a more balanced game. We agreed to a cease-fire in the region while most of his units pulled back over the frontier. We also agreed that he would keep Myitkyina, since I had defended it only lightly and he could have taken it with available forces.

This accord transforms the game to some extent. I was so worried about Burma I was actually stripping the DEI of reserves and sending them to Rangoon. Those transports have turned back and the DEI will remain stocked with troops. Most of the reserve, by the way, which at the moment consists of the 54th Division and a couple of regiments drawn from Manchukuo, is being held at Davao.

Wow!

Currently (July '42) in our 2x2 game - I have pulled back to Rangoon and hexes within about 4 hexes of Rangoon. The Allies are slowing occupying the void between us but much of central Burma is still a no-mans land.

But interesting change in your game!

We have finally upgraded from 1080 to 1099c and are digesting the massive changes in the rules. I may consider trying to inch forward another hex or two in Burma but do not think I will risk going back into the cultivated areas in the center. Uber bombers will still rule in that area.

I need to start updating my AAR again. Have been busy with other areas, but should have some time this weekend.

[Fishbed]

This move to Ambon is one island too far. Cuttlefish, you GOT to answer that move, or you're definitely screwed!!!

[BletchleyGeek]

I'm half expecting CF to shock and awe all of us announcing the inminent invasion of Ceylon, Midway and Western Hawaii...

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: jrcar
The B-17 rule the skies when unopposed.

And when opposed as well!
[:D]

To stop them you need to sacrifice fighters.

We've been doing the sacrifices

3 Chutai over the past 2 turns ... (about 15 out of 30 Oscars lost)

I'm waiting to see how Joe and Nik solve this problem...
Rob

Me too!!!
[:D]

[Fishbed]

My guess is that 4E serviceability, although very high by game terms, are still not hampering around the clock maneuvers enough. 4Es do repair, R&R very quickly indeed. I think the damages inflicted by the fighters are about right, but those damages should keep the 4Es on the ground much longer.

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

My guess is that 4E serviceability, although very high by game terms, are still not hampering around the clock maneuvers enough. 4Es do repair, R&R very quickly indeed. I think the damages inflicted by the fighters are about right, but those damages should keep the 4Es on the ground much longer.

Maybe it is just my experience with Mavis's and more limited Japanese av support, but AC with a service rating of 4 spend a lot of time in maintenance. Maybe it is just the sheer numbers that allows for continual, uninterrupted bombing?

[Cuttlefish]

My own experience so far, having only been on the receiving end of 4E bombings, is that it is difficult for the Allied player to sustain such a bombing long enough to really close an airfield. What I keep seeing is lots of B-17s attacking. The defending fighters suffer but over a few turns, as fatigue and battle damage accumulate, fewer and fewer bombers attack. The ones that do take more damage and the bombing trails off and then stops.

The exception so far is Burma, but that mostly involves 2E bombers and even there Q-Ball has to rest them fairly often. Of course, there might be other factors on the Allied side that I am unaware of but that is what it looks like so far from my side.

I will post a full update tomorrow. Lots has been going on. Japan has indeed struck back at Ambon and there has been a lot of other fighting as well. Stay tuned.