What if Japan had not attack the US?

[Feltan]

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

You are overestimating the waning popularity of the "America First" folks, and underestimating the US Public's sympathy for "the underdog".

Mike,

I have to think that if the U.S. populace was as moved by an underdog as you state, the affinity for the Chinese would have bought the U.S. into the war before Pearl Harbor!

While America First might have been slipping as a political movement/party, I don't think the desire of the majority to remain out of the war is fairly tracked by looking at only America First popularity. Roosevelt read this desire, and had promised on multiple occasions to keep us out of the war.

The U.S. declaring war on Japan to insure Singapore was properly returned to the U.K., and Java went back to the Dutch? <--- Really, I think that is nearly an impossibility.

Regards,
Feltan

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: Feltan

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

You are overestimating the waning popularity of the "America First" folks, and underestimating the US Public's sympathy for "the underdog".

Mike,

I have to think that if the U.S. populace was as moved by an underdog as you state, the affinity for the Chinese would have bought the U.S. into the war before Pearl Harbor!

While America First might have been slipping as a political movement/party, I don't think the desire of the majority to remain out of the war is fairly tracked by looking at only America First popularity. Roosevelt read this desire, and had promised on multiple occasions to keep us out of the war.

As had Woodrow Wilson during the 1916 election..., just before he took us into WW I in 1917! Presidents say a lot of things when they are trying to get elected.

[bjfagan]

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

ORIGINAL: Feltan

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

You are overestimating the waning popularity of the "America First" folks, and underestimating the US Public's sympathy for "the underdog".

Mike,

I have to think that if the U.S. populace was as moved by an underdog as you state, the affinity for the Chinese would have bought the U.S. into the war before Pearl Harbor!

While America First might have been slipping as a political movement/party, I don't think the desire of the majority to remain out of the war is fairly tracked by looking at only America First popularity. Roosevelt read this desire, and had promised on multiple occasions to keep us out of the war.

As had Woodrow Wilson during the 1916 election..., just before he took us into WW I in 1917! Presidents say a lot of things when they are trying to get elected.

Even after many attacks on US shipping and threats by Wilson if the Germans did not stop their unrestricted sub campaign, we would have still stayed out of the Great War if it had not been for Germany trying to influence Mexico into attacking the US. Yes, many presidents will say things in their campaigns, but it is usually events that force them to act differently than what they promised.

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: bjfagan

Even after many attacks on US shipping and threats by Wilson if the Germans did not stop their unrestricted sub campaign, we would have still stayed out of the Great War if it had not been for Germany trying to influence Mexico into attacking the US. Yes, many presidents will say things in their campaigns, but it is usually events that force them to act differently than what they promised.

Of course, Wilson really did want to "keep us out of war". Whereas Roosevelt wanted to get us in. Actually, considering that the US Navy's "Neutrality Patrols" were already exchanging fire and suffering losses in the North Atlantic, you could argue that we were already in.

[xj900uk]

I thought that the 'America First' movement still had great support in the uS in late-41.&nbsp; After all it was fronted by Charles Lindenburgh, the great US-aviator and trail-blazer who was very popular (and whom woudl also always get the public sympathy vote).
Funnily enough after PH,&nbsp; Lindenburgh volunteered for the USAAF but his application was quite abruptly and rudely turned down by Roosevelt, who told him to get lost in no uncertain terms.&nbsp; Lindenburgh then eventually quietly joined the USAAF on his own and flew a few combat missions (I think he was in&nbsp; P38 but I might be wrong),&nbsp; shooting down at least one EA before Washington realised he was there and called him home - he still might be a pariah to the powers that be but they had no wish to have him KIA or MIA...

[AW1Steve]

Having read a fair amount of the pre-war government , I can't help but feel that neither side had rulers who had a clue about the other. The Japanese could not get their mind around the concept that the USA wouldn't attack them (largely because that's what the Japanese rulers would have done) and the Allies seemed to feel that a combination of European style sabre rattling and "real-polotic" would cause the Japanese to roll over. (After all, isn't that what any sensible -read Euro style government- would do?). The few people who understood their opponents (Ambassador Grew and Admiral Richardson for the allies , Yammamoto and Noumeru for the Japanese) were ignored as "out of touch".

On the other side of the world , Hitler jumps the gun against the USSR because he has to stab Stalin before Stalin stabs him! Paranoia vs. Ignorance=WAR. [:(]

[Chris21wen]

Would this make a good scenario?

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: Chris H

Would this make a good scenario?

Could be if done right. Japan goes to war against the Commonwealth and the Dutch, with all US assets considered neutral and untouchable. Japan may declare war on the US any time after June 1st, 1942 (enough time to complete the conquest of the SRA and start getting the resources back to Japan to replace those used in the initial operations).

Allied player has the option of bringing the US in early on a 1/6th chance in January, 2/6ths in February..., up to 5/6ths in May. Meanwhile the Americans can build up their holdings in the Pacific (Probably including inserting "neutrality forces" in Samoa and New Caledonia and that area). Lots of inherent tension in the situation..., but probably difficult to program.

[AW1Steve]

I'd love to see it. Especially if you built in "triggers" like the USSR involvement does in regular AE or vanilla WITP.

[mdiehl]

thought that the 'America First' movement still had great support in the uS in late-41.

Not as much as they wanted. By November 1941 US polls were favoring open warfare with Germany if that was what was required to prevent them from invading Britain (which of course, by then, wasn't remotely in the cards), otherwise the All Measures Short of War policy which was viewed with 90% favorability.

In the event of war in the Pacific without Japan attacking the US, most likely arrangement would be substantial elements of the Netherlands East Indies transferred to US jurisdiction under a Lend Lease program. At least, that is what the Japanese feared the US would do, and it was one of the many reasons the Fleet Faction gave for initiating the war against the USA.

The Japanese Army, of course, really preferred that the US not be brought into the war.

[Mistmatz]

...

the US would have had a hard time to get into WW2?



EDIT: Damn, I'm too slow.

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: xj900uk

I thought that the 'America First' movement still had great support in the uS in late-41.  After all it was fronted by Charles Lindenburgh, the great US-aviator and trail-blazer who was very popular (and whom woudl also always get the public sympathy vote).
Funnily enough after PH,  Lindenburgh volunteered for the USAAF but his application was quite abruptly and rudely turned down by Roosevelt, who told him to get lost in no uncertain terms.  Lindenburgh then eventually quietly joined the USAAF on his own and flew a few combat missions (I think he was in  P38 but I might be wrong),  shooting down at least one EA before Washington realised he was there and called him home - he still might be a pariah to the powers that be but they had no wish to have him KIA or MIA...

The America First movement was waning by late 1941, but they still had some influence. Charles Lindberg was turned down when he tried to join the military, but he became a factory rep and went out in the field to help USAAF pilots get more out of their airplanes. He did fly some unauthorized missions with the 5th AF in P-38s and there are rumors he shot down a few planes. George Kenny hit the roof when he found out.

When Lindberg was flying with the 5th AF, he always returned to base with much more fuel than anyone else. When asked his trick he explained that he would lean out the mixture to the engines to the bare minimum to stay airborne when cruising. This was very hard on the life of the engine, but almost doubled the range. When the technique was adopted, 5th AF P-38s went from flying 5 hour missions to 8 hour missions. More fatiguing for the pilots, but it started to run up the scores of the P-38 pilots who were surprising Japanese deep in enemy territory.

Bill

[xj900uk]

Thanks,&nbsp; that is interesting about how he managed to eek out the range of the P38's by altering the fuel-burn mix.&nbsp; Wonder what the ground crews who had the service the engines thought of that trick though...

[mdiehl]

Probably they thought "This motor don't look so good. Hey! I got an engine just like that one right over here......"

[xj900uk]

Hmmm, I've always thought that the US could have made more of Lindenburgh in WWII,&nbsp; after all the guy was brave enough to admit he had been mistaken in the run-up to PH (a charge which could have been levelled at many guys in intelligence,&nbsp; the military and Congress),&nbsp; and he was a great flyer and experienced pilot.&nbsp; The USAAF could have benefited from his intelligence and expertise long before they (unofficially) did...

[morganbj]

ORIGINAL: xj900uk

Hmmm, I've always thought that the US could have made more of Lindenburgh in WWII,  after all the guy was brave enough to admit he had been mistaken in the run-up to PH (a charge which could have been levelled at many guys in intelligence,  the military and Congress),  and he was a great flyer and experienced pilot.  The USAAF could have benefited from his intelligence and expertise long before they (unofficially) did...

Sounds like a cross between the Hindenburg and Lindbergh. [:D]

[xj900uk]

You know who I meant!!! [:-]

[Blackhorse]

Costello's War in the Pacific says that at the time Roosevelt was informed Pearl Harbor had been attacked, he had a draft on his desk, asking Congress for a DOW vs. Japan, in response to (what Rossevelt expected to be) a Japanese attack on Malaya and the DEI. I have not seen this claim in other sources.

Even if true, it is doubtful that Roosevelt would have convinced Congress to approve a DOW with anything less than a direct attack by the Japanese on US soil or ships. This is the same Congress that in July, approved the continuation of the military draft by only a single vote -- after a great deal of arm-twisting by FDR.

Herwin may be right -- perhaps FDR could have manufactured an incident like the 'Gulf of Tonkin' to get America into the war. But under those circumstances the war effort would not have been supported by a fully mobolized industry or population. In the War Plan Orange exercises, the Navy planners assumed that they would have about 2 years to defeat Japan in a war, before the loss of public support at home forced an armistice.

[xj900uk]

Agreed 100%&nbsp; A pre-emptive strike on PH (even though US intelligence should have known it was coming) united the USA like nothing else on earth and made everyone including jo public determined to see it through right to the bitter end, no matter how long it took.
Yamamoto knew this,&nbsp; unlike most of the Japanese war-planners and strategists.&nbsp; In a letter to his sister he wrote :&nbsp; (translation varies slightly in a few texts)
'Those fools in Tokyo don't know what they're contemplating.&nbsp; A limited war with America,&nbsp; making huge early gains then sitting back and demanding a soft ceasfire?&nbsp; They should realise that the only time they can dictate terms to the Americans is when our troops are marching up the steps of the White House.&nbsp; And even then, I doubt they'd listen'.

[Cmdrcain]

ORIGINAL: Shark7

If Japan hadn't attacked the US, then WiTP-AE wouldn't exist and no one would be here in this forum asking or answering these types of questions. [:D]

I don't think it would have mattered, Roosevelt wanted into the war, eventually the US would have joined the fight, IMO.

WITP AE would exist

The war simply would been different
If Japan had not hit USA... but Britain and DEI, we would have accelerated things, built up midway/wake/guam/phillipines and Pearl would been on constant war alert

Do also recall that japan attacked USA cause we had shutoff scrape steel and other resources
we likely would have total embargoed anything to japan so would been close to a declared war
so Japan would have hit USa eventually even if at first they took malaya and DEI...
It just would not have been a surprise attack... and we would have built up..

A more interesting question would be what if japan attacked USa and germany had NOT declared on USA... US citizens would been in a rage and not wanted anything to do with the "european" problem...so possiable WITP would been a shorter war with all effort of USA aimed at japan alone..