Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

Miller's comment in "The China Problem" thread chapped me a bit.  He's taking credit for Japanese victory in China and doesn't realize how ridiculous and non-historic the situation is due to the way the game was borked in China.  Here's what I wrote him:
[font=arial] [/font]
[font=arial]"I need to say something about China.[/font][/align] [/align]"The results at Liuchow had very little to do with the short Allied campaign in China.  The units that advanced returned to Liuchow in good shape.  In fact, once I pulled back from Nanning the defenses were stronger than they had been.  Many of the troops that moved on Nanning were reinforcements from the Chungking area, so they bolstered my defense at Liuchow.[/align] [/align]"The massive losses at Liuchow came about because Liuchow had zero supplies.  Liuchow has had zero supplies since early '42.  You could''ve taken the base a month ago or year ago or more.  [/align] [/align]"The Chinese have a modest amount of supply at four cities (not three as I had posted previously).  I can fight and hold at those bases just as you've seen - because you've been trying at two of them (Changsha and Changteh) for a long time.  [/align] [/align]"I cannot fight anywhere else due to lack of supply.  You can overrun China if you wish to do so.  That's not supposed to be the situation in China, where the war is supposed to be a quagmire.  [/align] [/align]"Since the situation in China has been borked by strategic bombing (making it impossible to defend any city that doesn't have supply, which is most of China) and nuclear artillery (which made it impossible to defend even cities that had supply) I keep expecting you to realize that you have a one-sided, unfair, and non-historic advantage in the game.  At the very least I'd expect you to say, 'Dang, this is screwed up.'  Honestly, I'd expect you to say, 'I'm calling off the dogs because this is screwed up.'[/align] [/align]"This is what I did in Burma.  I have not advanced any units that were restricted commands without buying them with political points.  I imposed that rule on myself when I saw what was going on [in other games].  The war didn't have the Allies going crazy in Burma in '43, but that's what is happening in other games.  I didn't want to work the system unfairly in ours, so I've held back most of my army.  I have half my troops still sitting at Akyab.  Imagine the situation around Rangoon if I hadn't self-imposed that rule.[/align] [/align]"You didn't have to ask me to impose the rule.  I did so because it seemed right and fair."[/align]

[Kereguelen]

Hi,

actually referring to your post in your China thread in the public forum but asking here because this concerns intelligence that should not be available to your opponent.

Question:

How is your replacement situation in China? Do you receive enough replacements from the pool? You can easily find this out by looking at the number of Chinese rifle squads in the pool (well, at least if you have replacements on for some Chinese LCU's).

Thanks

K

[Canoerebel]

Wow, Miller just committed his full carrier compliment against the Port of Darwin.  At least I think it's his full compliment - there were confirmed groups from Shokaku, Zuikaku, Akagi, Kaga, Amagi, Soryu, Hiryu, Hiyo, Hosho, Taiho, Taiyo, Chiyoda, Unyo and Chuyo - with hundreds of Jills and Judys and Zeros.
 
Thus far I have only seen the combat report - I haven't been able to open the game file yet to see what the score is.  But based upon the combat report:
 
1)  The Japanese damaged many of the merchant ships at Darwin - there were more than a hundred ships docked there and many took hits.  Mississippi also took many bomb hits - something like 20.  Don't know how badly Mississippi is hurt.  The damage to the Allied merchant fleet looks serious, but most of them should be repairable.
 
2)  It appears that the Japanese lost several hundred aicraft, maybe more.
 
3)  The Allies lost a nominal amount of aircraft.  Probably 10% or less of what the Japanese lost.  The Allies had a CAP of 150 fighters - P-38H, Spitfires, Kittyhawk III, P-40K, P-40E, and a handful of F4F-4s.
 
I'll have to check how badly my ships were damaged, but my early impression is that this is a major Allied victory.

[veji1]

why on earth would he do that ?? you don't attack an even medium Capped port with the KB post mid42, except if there is a really really valid reason for that (wounded CVs in there...). that's a sure way of just slaughtering your pilots... don't understand it.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the combat report for the action over Darwin.  Alot of ships take damage, alot of Japanese planes go down.  After looking through this a second time I feel even more sure that this was an Allied victory.  How long will it take the Japanese to replace aircraft and pilots of these numbers?  In the short term, it should permit the Allies to move forward in the DEI and it also opens the door to Tarawa.  The raid didn't touch the two big combat TFs at the port, nor the amphibious TF waiting the "all clear" to move on Babo, New Guinea:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jul 14, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 45 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M5 Zero x 21 

Allied aircraft
     Kittyhawk III x 16
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 37
     P-38H Lightning x 25
     P-40E Warhawk x 25
     P-40K Warhawk x 58
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
     Kittyhawk III: 2 destroyed
     P-40K Warhawk: 3 destroyed
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 38
     A6M3a Zero x 24
     A6M5 Zero x 79
     A6M5b Zero x 23
     B6N1 Jill x 96
     B6N2 Jill x 9
     D4Y1 Judy x 93

Allied aircraft
     Kittyhawk III x 12
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 37
     P-38H Lightning x 25
     P-40E Warhawk x 24
     P-40K Warhawk x 49
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M2 Zero: 6 destroyed
     A6M3a Zero: 2 destroyed
     A6M5 Zero: 8 destroyed
     A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
     B6N1 Jill: 18 destroyed, 32 damaged
     B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
     D4Y1 Judy: 40 destroyed, 23 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
     Spitfire Vc Trop: 5 destroyed
     P-38H Lightning: 1 destroyed
     P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed
     P-40K Warhawk: 4 destroyed
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
     AM Toowoomba, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     BB Mississippi, Bomb hits 19,  heavy fires
     xAK Edwin M. Stanton, Bomb hits 1
     CM Prins van Oranje, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Andrew Furuseth, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAP Matsonia, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Mormachawk, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AS Zuiderkruis, Bomb hits 1
     xAK Chatanooga City, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     AMc Kawi, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     SS Haddo, Bomb hits 1,  heavy damage
     AS Bushnell, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAP President Coolidge, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     AMc Bogor, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 25
     A6M5 Zero x 103
     B6N1 Jill x 108
     B6N2 Jill x 9
     D4Y1 Judy x 92  

Allied aircraft
     Kittyhawk III x 2
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 23
     P-38H Lightning x 12
     P-40E Warhawk x 8
     P-40K Warhawk x 18
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 5 

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
     A6M5 Zero: 3 destroyed
     B6N1 Jill: 5 destroyed, 16 damaged
     B6N2 Jill: 2 damaged
     D4Y1 Judy: 37 destroyed, 20 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
     Kittyhawk III: 1 destroyed
     Spitfire Vc Trop: 3 destroyed
     P-38H Lightning: 1 destroyed
     P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
     AGP Krakatau, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Henry Villard, Bomb hits 1
     CM Keokuk, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AD Markab, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     ACM Barricade, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     xAK Madras City, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK La Pampa, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAP Empress ' Scotland, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Clan Macnaughton, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AV Langley, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     AGP Aldebaran, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Irenee Du Pont, Bomb hits 1
     AM Whyalla, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Allara, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Chatanooga City, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Age, Bomb hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
     xAK Cleveland Abbe, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     CM Bungaree, Bomb hits 2,  on fire
     xAK Asphalion, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     AS Platypus, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     BB Mississippi, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     AVP Pollux, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Edwin M. Stanton, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Lavington Court, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     DD McCall, Bomb hits 1
     ML No. 310, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     AVP Arend, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     ACM Picket, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M5b Zero x 16
     B6N1 Jill x 48
     D4Y3 Judy x 18 

Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 10
     P-38H Lightning x 6
     P-40E Warhawk x 4
     P-40K Warhawk x 11
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
     B6N1 Jill: 12 destroyed, 12 damaged
     D4Y3 Judy: 6 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
     P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
     BB Mississippi, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     DD McCall, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Forbes Hauptmann, Bomb hits 1
     AVP Pollux, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AM Toowoomba, and is sunk 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     B6N1 Jill x 19  

Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 6
     P-38H Lightning x 4
     P-40E Warhawk x 3
     P-40K Warhawk x 5
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 1 

Japanese aircraft losses
     B6N1 Jill: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged 

Allied Ships
     xAP President Coolidge, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 9
     B6N1 Jill x 13  

Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 5
     P-38H Lightning x 4
     P-40E Warhawk x 3
     P-40K Warhawk x 5
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 1 

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
     B6N1 Jill: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
     P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 45 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M5 Zero x 21  

Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 3
     P-38H Lightning x 1
     P-40E Warhawk x 2
     P-40K Warhawk x 2 

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
     P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jul 15, 43


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 16 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M5 Zero x 14  

Allied aircraft
     Kittyhawk III x 6
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 15
     P-38H Lightning x 15
     P-40K Warhawk x 29
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
     Spitfire Vc Trop: 1 destroyed
     P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 15 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M5b Zero x 18  

Allied aircraft
     Kittyhawk III x 4
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 13
     P-38H Lightning x 13
     P-40K Warhawk x 25
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
     P-38H Lightning: 1 destroyed
     P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 36
     A6M3a Zero x 17
     A6M5 Zero x 77
     A6M5b Zero x 15
     B6N1 Jill x 118
     B6N2 Jill x 7
     D4Y1 Judy x 28 

Allied aircraft
     Kittyhawk III x 4
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 12
     P-38H Lightning x 10
     P-40K Warhawk x 20
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 2 

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed
     A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
     A6M5 Zero: 3 destroyed
     A6M5b Zero: 3 destroyed
     B6N1 Jill: 11 destroyed, 26 damaged
     B6N2 Jill: 4 damaged
     D4Y1 Judy: 13 destroyed, 8 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
     Kittyhawk III: 2 destroyed
     Spitfire Vc Trop: 1 destroyed
     P-38H Lightning: 1 destroyed
     P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
     CM Prins van Oranje, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AK Draco, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CM Bungaree, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK James Buchanan, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     DD McCall, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AD Hamul, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAP Monterey, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Madras City, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Cleveland Abbe, Bomb hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     PT-142, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     AM Bengal, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAP Matsonia, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     xAP Lurline, Bomb hits 2,  on fire
     xAK Cape Flattery, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AG Canopus, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
     xAK General Fleisher, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     AGP Aldebaran, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     xAK Henry Villard, Bomb hits 1
     xAP President Coolidge, Bomb hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
     AM Pieter de Bitter, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     AM Strahan, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     xAK Edwin M. Stanton, Bomb hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
     xAK Industria, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Frederick J. Turner, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     CM Gouden Leeuw, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AD Piedmont, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     xAK Dellwood, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Andrea Luckenbach, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAP Empress ' Scotland, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     AV Langley, Bomb hits 2,  heavy damage
     xAK John Bartram, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Age, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Allara, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AR Castor, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AS Platypus, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAK Clan Macnaughton, Bomb hits 1,  heavy damage
     AVD William B. Preston, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Irenee Du Pont, Bomb hits 1,  on fire

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 9
     A6M5 Zero x 63
     B6N1 Jill x 32
     D4Y1 Judy x 15 

Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 4
     P-38H Lightning x 6
     P-40K Warhawk x 11
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M5 Zero: 3 destroyed
     B6N1 Jill: 6 destroyed, 16 damaged
     D4Y1 Judy: 10 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
     ML No. 311, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     SS Haddo, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
     AV Langley, Bomb hits 1,  heavy damage
     xAP Poelau Bras, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     xAK Andrew Furuseth, Bomb hits 1
     xAP Empress ' Scotland, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     CM Prins van Oranje, and is sunk 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     B6N2 Jill x 7


Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 4
     P-38H Lightning x 1
     P-40K Warhawk x 5
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 1 

Japanese aircraft losses
     B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 9
     B6N1 Jill x 8


Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 4
     P-38H Lightning x 1
     P-40K Warhawk x 4
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 1 

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
     B6N1 Jill: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Darwin , at 76,124

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M5 Zero x 13 

Allied aircraft
     Spitfire Vc Trop x 1
     P-40K Warhawk x 2
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 1 

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
     Spitfire Vc Trop: 1 destroyed
     P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

[Oliver Heindorf]

can you upload a screenshot "plane losses today" please ?

[aztez]

Very bold move. I would advice word in caution of declaring this as an allied victory yet. Remember that FOW can do alter those "results" quite a lot.
 
Another thing is that he can replace those airframes. I have experienced this quite a few times. I thought my opponents squadrons were depleted only to be proven otherwise.
 
As for the pilots well It is really hard to say. Intresting move by his part though and personally I think it was an good move.
 
Definately nice going here.

[Chickenboy]

Thanks for the update...some of us were anxiously awaiting the hammer fall on Darwin.

I'd say this is a 'push' or a pyrhhic victory for Miller.

I'm getting 224 IJNAF planes downed according to the combat report. This does not included 'damaged' that do not return to the ships or crash en route.

You've lost a lot of those ships at Darwin. Since your AR got hosed too, you're unlikely to be able to stem the damage on a large number of them. If you lost ~22 aircraft, then it would be a 'push' for him if he sinks most of the auxiliaries that appear to be heavily damaged. If some of those bomb hits were 800kg brutes, you're likely to lose Mississippi too, fire damage depending. If you do lose her, then the raid would be a marginal victory to the IJN in my book.

The long-term effect on pilot pools or a/c airframes is totally unknown. He may have plenty of Jills and Judys in the pools and (less likely) plenty of reserve trained pilots for immediate (or near immediate) airgroup replacement. Within 3-4 months he should be made whole again, both with aircrews and airframes, regardless of pre-existing pools.

I like VPs not from the 'autovictory' perspective, but for the 'keepin' it real' perspective. Losing a BB (or CV) is a monumental occurence and a staggering loss-or at least it should be. The high VPs in the game for these units reflect that well. Losing a BB is the game equivalent of losing several hundred aircraft (!). Similarly, having a huge body of ships destroyed (even if they're mostly 8-10 VPs) while at port is a resounding smack to morale-or at least it should be. Hence my 'push' judgement.

Not that you are doing so, but I think when the allied players wantonly disregard their losses in xAKs and xAPs due to their surfeit of these ships, the game loses its grip on 'reality'. Back home, the public would be screaming for blood and the military leadership would squirm, much like after Betio/Tarawa. Looking to the VPs as a rough template for 'victory' helps me to weigh events as objectively as possible.

Will this affect your activities in the DEI, other than the TF that is loading right now?

[Canoerebel]

I've seen the file now.  Here's the skinny:

Allied ship losses:  BB Mississippi, 1 DD, 5 AM, 2 ML, 1 AR, 1 AG, 1 AGP, 3 CM, 6 xAK, 1 xAP, 1 SS, 2 AMc, 1 AVP, 1 AD.  I was surprised that Mississippi went down, because she only showed "fires" and no "heavy damage" reports.  There are additional damaged ships, but I doubt any of these will go under barring further attacks.  The impact on Allied ability to transport troops is negligible.

Japanese aircraft losses:  524 shown on the loss table - 262 a-2-a, 190 flak, 72 ops.  Not all of these occurred at Darwin - the Allies had two big bombing raids (Lautem and Rangoon) which cost the Japanese some fighters - probably 20 to 30.

Allied aircraft losses:  191 for the day.  Many of these were involved in the raids on Lautem and Rangoon. For instance, at least 60 aircraft were models only involved at Lautem and Rangoon (like Wellingtons, P-38Gs, B-17s, and Liberator IIs).  Of the 64 P-40Ks downed over the two-day turn, I don't know what proportion were downed at Rangoon as opposed to Darwin.  In total I probably lost about 50 to 75 aircraft at Darwin.

Tactical Effect:  Miller put it this way in his email:   "Well I cant disguise the fact the last turn was bad for me, I took the risk and lost. Back to the drawing board."  With the loss of Mississippi and the other ships I think it's closer to a draw.

Strategic Effect:  Decisive Allied victory.  At a time when the arrival of Allied carrier is going into overdrive, the Japanese just seriously weakened their own carrier power for several months.  Near term, this should result in the loss of Tarawa - Allied ships are already loading and/or heading to rendezvous points for that invasion.  The Japanese will continue to have a strong surface combat and LBA presence in the DEI, so I doubt I'll be able to take too much liberty here, but not facing the prospect of the combination of LBA and carrier-based air will be a big help.  This should move up the Allied invasion of Babo.

Chickenboy:  You said something like you were waiting for something like this at Darwin.  Since Miller doesn't have an AAR going, what would've tipped you off?   

Miller's Rationale:  I had wondered what Miller was thinking with the massive build-up at Darwin and vicinity.  I had been sitting there doing very little other than building, building, building for months.  I wondered whether this  might not create pressure to "do something."  Yes, this was tactically a draw with both sides taking solid licks, but there's no question which side came out in a better position to prosecute the war.

[Canoerebel]

7/8/43 to 7/15/43
 
SWPac:  The massive Japanese raid on Darwin has been addressed above.  The Allies will likely try to insert a force at Babo, on the New Guinea coast, unless recon shows it is occupied by more than a token force.  Kaimana, also on that coast, goes to level three airfield tomorrow, which will help provide good CAP.  I'll send the ships from Darwin tomorrow and also recon the base.  If it appears empty, I'll drop the Marine paratroop battalion located at nearby Aru Island (it is 100% prepped for Babo).  The biggest threat is Japanese combat ships - Miller still has far more than I do in this theater.  But my plan is to get in and out quickly.
 
Burma:  Additional base forces finally arrived at Prome, which is a level six base with personel to handle 100+ aircraft.  I tried a sweep/bomb combination, but it didn't work very well.  I'll let my bombers rest.  In a few days I'll try a sweep.
 
China:  Liuchow fell (as noted above).  I have to vacate Kweilin also as Miller is advancing from both sides.  If he were to send a unit west, he could isolate and then destroy my army here.
 
NoPac:  Quiet, though Allied subs have scored a number of kills against both E-class boats and a few transports.
 
SoPac:  The Tarawa invasion force is loading and assembling from a variety of points.  The invasion force will include four Marine regiments, two Army regiments, an Army division, some artillery, and some support.  This should hopefully be overkill, but I want to manhandle Tarawa and then move on to other matters.  Support will be provided by a stout comat TF and about six or eight CVEs.
 
Carriers:  CVLs Princeton and Independence just left San Fran in the company of BB Washington.  CVL Belleau Wood and CV Bunker Hill just arrived at Balboa.  CVs Constitution and Constellation arrive at Balboa in less than two weeks.   Once all the carriers are present and accounted for I'll likely move them to the DEI to provide the muscle needed to begin the advance.  I'm worried about subs, and I'll be leary of Japanese LBA (and carrier-based air, though that should be seriously reduced for awhile).
 
 

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've seen the file now.  Here's the skinny:

Allied ship losses:  BB Mississippi, 1 DD, 5 AM, 2 ML, 1 AR, 1 AG, 1 AGP, 3 CM, 6 xAK, 1 xAP, 1 SS, 2 AMc, 1 AVP, 1 AD.  I was surprised that Mississippi went down, because she only showed "fires" and no "heavy damage" reports.  There are additional damaged ships, but I doubt any of these will go under barring further attacks.  The impact on Allied ability to transport troops is negligible.

Japanese aircraft losses:  524 shown on the loss table - 262 a-2-a, 190 flak, 72 ops.  Not all of these occurred at Darwin - the Allies had two big bombing raids (Lautem and Rangoon) which cost the Japanese some fighters - probably 20 to 30.

Allied aircraft losses:  191 for the day.  Many of these were involved in the raids on Lautem and Rangoon. For instance, at least 60 aircraft were models only involved at Lautem and Rangoon (like Wellingtons, P-38Gs, B-17s, and Liberator IIs).  Of the 64 P-40Ks downed over the two-day turn, I don't know what proportion were downed at Rangoon as opposed to Darwin.  In total I probably lost about 50 to 75 aircraft at Darwin.

Tactical Effect:  Miller put it this way in his email:   "Well I cant disguise the fact the last turn was bad for me, I took the risk and lost. Back to the drawing board."  With the loss of Mississippi and the other ships I think it's closer to a draw.

Strategic Effect:  Decisive Allied victory.  At a time when the arrival of Allied carrier is going into overdrive, the Japanese just seriously weakened their own carrier power for several months.  Near term, this should result in the loss of Tarawa - Allied ships are already loading and/or heading to rendezvous points for that invasion.  The Japanese will continue to have a strong surface combat and LBA presence in the DEI, so I doubt I'll be able to take too much liberty here, but not facing the prospect of the combination of LBA and carrier-based air will be a big help.  This should move up the Allied invasion of Babo.

Chickenboy:  You said something like you were waiting for something like this at Darwin.  Since Miller doesn't have an AAR going, what would've tipped you off?   

Miller's Rationale:  I had wondered what Miller was thinking with the massive build-up at Darwin and vicinity.  I had been sitting there doing very little other than building, building, building for months.  I wondered whether this  might not create pressure to "do something."  Yes, this was tactically a draw with both sides taking solid licks, but there's no question which side came out in a better position to prosecute the war.

I don't see the harm in telling you that Miller's "Japanese industry" thread on the forum was not so much about Japanese Industry as about soliciting comments re: a full IJNAF strike on Darwin. A number of 'regulars' from this thread posted there (very carefully, I might add) that we could not really comment further, but were anxious to see the results and hear his perspective after the event. His announcement of his intentions was a surprise to me (a rather ballsy move, if I may say so)-there was nothing you did to show your hand or tip off your force disposition and invite this attack that I can detect. I'm constantly impressed that readers of sensitive material on AARs keep their mouths closed and let events transpire.

What a blood bath! 524 Japanese planes in a day is quite the airborne abatoir. Yeesh. If you can keep the pressure on now, it will be very difficult for him to replace these losses, regardless of how good his pilot training program is. You wanted attrition? Attrition you got.

I used to enjoy Pat Summerall and John Madden call football games as an announcer team. Mostly, they were past their prime the last decade or so. One thing that Summerall said stuck with me though. In reference to a player with 'potential', Summerall quipped that "potential just means you haven't done anything yet." Very true.

The table is set for a war of attrition. The potential is there for you-over the next 4 months-to break the IJNAF and IJAAF and keep them broken. Now you've gotta go get 'em and keep up the pressure.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Oliver Heindorf
can you upload a screenshot "plane losses today" please ?

Here you go:

[Canoerebel]

7/16/43 and 7/17/43
 
Now is the time for the Allies to implement a dash of deception and a pinch of substance.

SoPac:  The Tarawa-bound amphibious TFs at Pago Pago are loading and will soon head north to rendezvous with the "north compoment" on the way from the West Coast (carrying an Army division) and Palmyra (carrying a Marine regiment).  The CVEs left Wellington and Auckland and will join the transports enroute.  It is unlikely that Miller would send the KB to Tarawa after the recent action in the DEI, but I will try to keep him focused on the DEI.

SWPac:  I want to give the appearance of a move on Lautem while the actual move is made on the base of Babo on the New Guinea coast:  (1) bombers will hit Lautem and Ambon while a large, mock transport TF leaves Darwin and heads toward Lautem.  I'm pretty sure Miller has been looking for this for months, so this should feed his expectations.  Meanwhile, recon of Babo, Boela, and Sorong begins tomorrow.  If Babo looks open, I'll drop Marine paratroops.  An amphibios TF leaves Darwin tonight and should be between Kai-eilenden and Kaimana tomorrow - close enough to permit troops to hit Babo the following two-day turn.  I believe this activity will be sufficient to focus Miller's attention here while the Tarawa invasion nears.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Oliver Heindorf
can you upload a screenshot "plane losses today" please ?

Here you go:

Damn...this is BAD. Even with Fog of War there can be no doubt as to his losses being severe.

NOT a good move on his part. Had he reconned the base to know the large number of Fighters you had there?

[Canoerebel]

He's had patrol aircraft and recon all over the area for awhile, but he never actually tested the CAP and probably didn't to prevent me from becoming suspicious.  In effect, he was rolling the dice.  Gutsy move and it worked in some ways, but the cost was too high for him.  In addition to the fighters at Darwin, those based at Bathhurst Island and Fenton are close enough to offer support.

[LoBaron]

I´ve also seen Millers post, from a Japanese perspective It was also a good plan. He had to slow
your move to the DEI´s and he chose the time where success was at least still high enough. 

In fact this was the true success of operation Port Royale. [;)]
It forced him to do something he didn´t have time to prepare for because he had to counter in the Kuriles.

Sometimes we tend to forget that besides being vulnerable in the Pacific the Japanese Empire has a very weak
stomach if punched from the right direction...

[Canoerebel]

7/18/43 to 7/23/43
 
SWPac:  The move on Babo went off like clockwork.  The Marine 'chutes battalion took the unoccupied base on the first turn and the transport convoy arrived on the second turn. I'm allowing the transports two days to unload and then I'm pulling them out - this is a forward position ripe for interdiction by Yamato and friends.  I'm not too worried about a counter-invasion.  The fact that the base was unoccupied suggests that Miller wasn't too concerned about it.  But it can be built to 4 port, 5 airfield and will play a big role in the eventual moves on Boela, Sorong, Manikawari, and Morotai.
 
Burma:  Allied fighters flying sweep over Rangoon are getting roughed up.
 
China:  The Chinese have evacuated Kweilin in good order.
 
SoPac:  All ships assigned to the Tarawa invasion have departed the various ports.  D-Day is probably four or five days off.
 
Allied Carriers:  CV Constellation has arrived joining CV Bunker Hill and CVL Belleau Wood at Balboa.  When Constitution arrives next week all of these carriers will head to Auckland.  CVLs Princeton and Independence are southeast of Pearl Harbor and will linger well south of Tarawa during the invasion (only CVEs - seven or eight of them - will be placed in harm's way).

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/18/43 to 7/23/43
 
SWPac:  The move on Babo went off like clockwork.  The Marine 'chutes battalion took the unoccupied base on the first turn and the transport convoy arrived on the second turn. I'm allowing the transports two days to unload and then I'm pulling them out - this is a forward position ripe for interdiction by Yamato and friends.  I'm not too worried about a counter-invasion.  The fact that the base was unoccupied suggests that Miller wasn't too concerned about it.  But it can be built to 4 port, 5 airfield and will play a big role in the eventual moves on Boela, Sorong, Manikawari, and Morotai.

Burma:  Allied fighters flying sweep over Rangoon are getting roughed up.

China:  The Chinese have evacuated Kweilin in good order.

SoPac:  All ships assigned to the Tarawa invasion have departed the various ports.  D-Day is probably four or five days off.

Allied Carriers:  CV Constellation has arrived joining CV Bunker Hill and CVL Belleau Wood at Balboa.  When Constitution arrives next week all of these carriers will head to Auckland.  CVLs Princeton and Independence are southeast of Pearl Harbor and will linger well south of Tarawa during the invasion (only CVEs - seven or eight of them - will be placed in harm's way).

Nice moves in the DEI, Canoerebel.

[ny59giants]

What are you doing with your non-CV assigned Navy and Marine squadrons?? If their use is not critical right now, I would max out the number of pilots and set them to 100% training for escort, NavT, or NavB. It may take close to two months before they get up to 70 experience, but you are going to need them as your carriers start to come on line in masse.  

[wpurdom]

Regardless of the long-term effects on Miller's pilot pools and airframes, short-term this has to give you temporary openings in air coverage. Unless he in a position to pounce on your moves on the surface in night attacks, this is a time for you to make hay while the sun is shining. And in storyline terms, succesful operations are what you need to counter the blow to morale from all those ship losses. (If you go on the offensive after the big fight, you show your less than adoring public that you won the battle).

It's still possible, though unlikely to me, that Chickenboy's first assessment could be correct if you give him time to regroup. So we'll see just how ready you were to go on the offensive. Don't let him do to you, what Booby Lee did to Lincoln after Antietam.