The Shipwreck of Their Hopes: Good'Guyz (aka "The Allies")

[kfmiller41]

Well i never said i flew them with good pilots[:D] I usually don't have a chance to train any before they all die gloriously[8|]

[Fishbed]

Miller, actually I think that we may have better opportunities fighting in SOPAC or SEA from the start. You could blow a beautiful blow to the DEI invasion forces as long as you keep the babies together. I tend to believe that Kido Butai will look for a fight in West Pac first, and that's an area where we can't be expected to contest its strenght.

[Fishbed]

No, actually I thought about it on my bike on my way to buy the bread: I don't need your CVs, but I need your airgroups [:D]

We'll talk about this later, but I guess there's a way to address both the allied shortage of good planes in the DEI and the need of combat experience: I fancy the idea that if you're to hide your CVs from John in the first months, every CV wing should have its tour of duty in the DEI at least for a week or two... especially if the planes can actually reach in a reasonable time their homeplates hiding in a australian port or something.

[bklooste]

ORIGINAL: miller41

Well i never said i flew them with good pilots[:D] I usually don't have a chance to train any before they all die gloriously[8|]

So why commit them , they dont achieve much but give the zeros xp ?

[kfmiller41]

Well I don't usually intend to commit them, the front comes to them[:D] I am always learning as I am definitely not the greatest planner in the world. I know now not to commit them if that helps[:)] And one thing i do think about is that attrition is attrition so if the japs lose one plane to my 3 i still win in the end[8|] just painful to watch

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

No, actually I thought about it on my bike on my way to buy the bread: I don't need your CVs, but I need your airgroups [:D]

We'll talk about this later, but I guess there's a way to address both the allied shortage of good planes in the DEI and the need of combat experience: I fancy the idea that if you're to hide your CVs from John in the first months, every CV wing should have its tour of duty in the DEI at least for a week or two... especially if the planes can actually reach in a reasonable time their homeplates hiding in a australian port or something.

Hi Fishbed and Miller41: Hope you don't mind occasional comments in your AAR? I like this idea, provided that they are never in a position to be cut off from retreat. You could turn Timor or Ambon, for example, into a very unpleasant burr in his saddle, but your short-legged planes may be cut off if they were in Java.

In an AI battle against the IJN, I grounded Lexington's airgroups on Java (well, because Lexington sunk underneath them and they diverted), where they conducted a very spirited and effective defense against numerous landings.

[kfmiller41]

I have considered this several times already in my allied game that is in Jan 42, I have excess planed in pearl and can drop off groups on PM and noumea and replane back in pearl. Could work.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Fishbed,

As re: night bombers... I don't think there's a need to limit them. They are pretty useless and if you concentrate the FlAK and put up a few fighter squadrons you can really take a tithe of these night bomber runs and make them excessively costly compared to their benefit.



Now, I'm not reading your opponent's AAR since I'm going to give a bit of a psychological rundown here... I think psychology is going to be key to understanding your opponents.

1. John3rd.... The problem with John3rd is that he has narcissistically bought into the persona of the "most aggressive player out there" and "if its on the map, he'll invade it". That's the persona he chose to put out there and in the presenting he now has a pressure to live up to it. What's the problem with that you might ask? Simple he seeks action to the exclusion of all else even if such action isn't actually worthwhile. He equates action with aggression and aggression with good play. This is a patently absurd situation which may serve him well in a brutish contest but robs him of the nuance, subtlety and options which are necessary to become a good player. All of the above can be used against him.

I played him in the Battleground Gettysburg game a year or so ago and you might find it instructive to read that AAR in the appropriate forum. At the time the game began I had little idea what made him tick but by the time we had exchanged a dozen moves or so it was clear how he thought. I used that assessment against him throughout the rest of the game. If reading the AAR you should ignore my disastrous handling of the cavalry as it was my first game of the Civil War system for about 5 years and I'd forgotten how the cavalry really worked... This led to some costly losses before I began using them properly.

So, ignoring the cavalry what do you notice?
1. He tried a wide flanking manoeuvre which aimed for a dramatic victory but was not really innovative in itself. It was merely a more aggressive variant of history and, as such, eminently predictable. He isn't innovative but he does take history, make it a bit more aggressive and aim a base beyond what history aimed for.

2. When it became clear that I had anticipated this move he pushed on trusting to brute force to win through. He committed his reserves and, at the crucial time, when I had allowed his reserves to wear themselves out against a hilltop redoubt I counter-attacked with many weak units which I had hidden in full defilade and I ruptured his front.

3. Due to the weakness of Union forces on Day 1 in that game it wasn't possible to utterly win the battle on that day but after more costly fighting over ground which it was clear I could hold - fighting which cost him the men and time he could have used to outflank or form up a properly concentrated assault - he began pulling back.

We called the game at that time as it was clear that he wasn't going to achieve the Rebel's Day 1 front-line trace and I had gained the initiative. In essence he was on to a loser there.

He was aggressive and he pushed hard but he wasn't subtle in committing his reserves and when checked he didn't easily adopt an entire new OODA cycle. He became target-fixated and just shoved more men and materiel in to a grinding match in which his excellent troops were ground down at the same rate as my much more numerous and poorer quality troops. That sort of exchange is a guaranteed loss for the Confederates.

He didn't re-orient and he didn't take the time to make a decisive push, he throw forces in pell-mell.

He also was very laggardly in guarding his supply columns and artillery columns. I executed several ambushes with the couple of cavalry units which survived my initial mishandling and feel confident that had I known how to handly cavalry from the outset that I could have destroyed large portions of his supply columns, rendering any long battle logistically unwinnable.


2. ny59 giants... Economy, economy, economy. Logistics are all. He was appointed economics minister in a previous John3rd game and will have the same role in this game. A good player, not as aggressive as John3rd but much more likely to actually succeed as he will consider before leaping and not just snarl and leap.


How will they manage this game? Well, its all down to the psychology.

Ny59giants will get China, the Home Islands ( and probably the Kuriles if they go defensive in that area ) and the DEI. Those are the economic zones of importance and he will want to have them under his control - this means he takes responsibility for capturing them. In addition from mid-42 onwards the Japanese economy requires a lot of work and it would make sense that ny59giants will have that job. Since he'll be burdened with the economy it makes sense that he;ll have a relatively quiescent front. China, Home Islands and DEI + Burma should make a pretty quiescent front.

John3rd... Well, he'll get the Pacific and the navy. The exciting stuff which makes big bangs and gets to go on death rides.... The question here is simply in which strategic direction he will choose to over-extend... and make no mistake it will be an overextension ( unless you make egregious errors ).

Options for over-extension:
1. India - if ny59giants has the DEI, CHina and Burma then John3rd won't be interested in going for India. If he were going for India he'd take control of the DEI region. Since ny59giants will want to run the economy he'll want the DEI region and this will overrule any plans John3rd has for India.

Conclusion: India is safe. You may talk about strategy etc all you want but strategy is, in all but the rarest of individuals, the outward expression of their personality and experiences ( Only a few rare individuals are sufficiently trained to be able to detach and make strategic decisions irrespective of their base personality --- this trainable ability lay at the core of the Prussian staff model and was why it was so succesful in ensuring cohesion between units with commanders of wildly differing temperaments... the key wasn't the commanders but the fact that their chiefs of staff were staff-trained and could thus be relied to approach issues the same way and come up with mutually cohesive albeit independently-arrived at solutions ). The mix of personalities on the other team makes India perfectly safe so long as ny59giants is in charge of the economy and DEI. Since it is almost unthinkable he won't be in charge of the economy and being in charge of the economy means being in charge of the most quiescent front from mid-42 onwards and ensuring the capture of the DEI post-haste it is almost unthinkable he won't be in charge of the DEI/vs the Commonwealth fronts.

So, India's safe. Your strategic indicator should be the division of regions which you should easily be able to pick up by email conversation within the first week of play. I'd rate the division of responsibilities I've outlined above as being better than 95% correct. I really would be surprised if they didn't divide things this way, even if they don't consciously think of the reasons behind it in the manner I've outlined.


2. Aleutians - It isn't really flashy enough for John3rd and if ny59giants got to defend the Kuriles he wouldn't bother to make a major move into the Aleutians. Build up the Aleutians a little just to protect against them invading something "just because it is empty" but apart from that the Aleutians should be safe.


3. Pearl Harbour - John3rd might like to invade it but 2 things argue against it:
a) it is a single solitary target. It isn't a huge string of bases he can take and conduct a long, sexy campaign out of. Once he takes the neighbouring islands he builds up the bomber bases and bombs PH into oblivion before landing troops at horrendous cost in the face of the CD guns. That sort of stolidity and loss without flashiness is anathema to John3rd's soul... This is why I refer to his love of being seen to be active and aggressive as a major flaw and not a positive... It is great to be aggressive if you channel that and use it to further rationally arrived at strategic goals. It is NOT good to let the need for action dictate operations as JOhn3rd does.

b) He'll want a land war. In a land war he'll get to beat up on your army units routinely and massively. John3rd is an egoist ( that's fine, we all fall somewhere on the various spectra of personality ). If you look at his previous AARs they were replete with how he managed to beat up on his enemy and how he was going to do x, y or z to them and they'd be unable to resist. There was a fair bit of gloating and self-aggrandisement ( again, fine, a bit of gloating in game-pplaying is hardly the largest of sins [:)] ) BUT you have to recognise that that sort of thing isn't optional. It is a key psychological imperative to the egoist. He NEEDS an ongoing land war in which he gets to take large numbers of bases and beat your ground forces for weeks and months at a time. Hawaii doesn't offer him the ability to show his self-perceived superiority as a strategist.

Conclusion: Hawaii simply doesn't provide him with the psychological imperatives he'll be looking for in his "comeback game". Strategically Hawaii is a fine target but JOhn3rd is the sort of player who strings lots of hyperactive operations together and calls that a strategic offensive as opposed to someone who puts in a well-reasoned strategic offensive plan and pursues it aggressively without ever letting the aggression overrule him or lead him into operations which act against his strategic goals.


So, land war --- CONUSA, Soviet Union or Oz/Nz.

CONUSA and Soviet Union --- Those are both just so insane that ny59giants can be relied upon to talk him out of both on logistical grounds.

That leaves Oz/Nz. He can approach Oz from two strategic directions ( using the old Soviet concept of strategic directions here and with the rigid meaning that comes with that usage ), through the DEI or from the East.

1. Via the DEI.
I think this is unlikely as going through the DEI would mean transitting ny59giants' strategic area of operations. In addition taking Darwin etc isn't really flashy or psychologically satiative for the reasons I've outline above. He could hook out far west and land at Perth etc. That's a smart move but I think that transitting the DEI makes that less likely as does the relative lack of bases to capture - not very flashy. I think they WILL take Darwin etc but this will NOT be his main thrust, it will simply be a safeguarding of the DEI and will likely be carried out by ny59giants.


2. Via the Rabaul/PM/Noumea axis.
Well if he comes in from the east he'll land in the north-east and march southwards. This isn't the best strategic choice but it will yield him the most ground conflict and feed his need for victories - since your Oz troops are so inexperienced etc. He should try to take all of eastern and southern Oz leaving you bottled up around Perth with only a single rail line to advance down.

Strategic indicators: If he takes Rabaul and PM but doesn't appear to be exploiting to Noumea then he's going straight for north-eastern Oz. Expect landings there before the end of January. If he starts moving towards Noumea then he'll be taking NZ. I don't expect him to do that. Nz is strategically and egoistically less satisfying for him.




So, my bet:
ny59giants will carefully and capably take out the DEI with well-covered invasions. He will insist on hitting your subs in Manilla. John will insist on hitting Hawaii. End result, KB will be split - John3rd also can't avoid splitting KB even when playing by himself... He has so many operations he wants to carry out that he can't sequence them and thus will attempt to cover them all by spreading his forces too thinly to be effective.

John3rd will take Rabaul ASAP with significant forces. He'll commit major overkill because Rabaul is critical to his plans. He will then either extend down the Solomons or onto Port Moresby. I am betting it'll be PM. If he goes for PM by the end of December/beginning of January then he WILL be invading Oz by the end of January 1942. Don't doubt it, that's just what his psychology dictates.

I think he'll land in the north-east and then begin marching down south and will continue until he has taken southern and eastern Oz. Probably ny59 will take Darwin at some stage. Perth will probably be left alone as he;'ll want to use forces from Oz to bolster his Pacific ambitions next - I won't go into where he'd like to go there as you should be able to stop him in Oz.


What I would do in this situation? Strip northern and western Oz. Send everything west and south of Brisbane to Brisbane. Do NOT reinforce north of Brisbane. You want to keep him happy, dumb and target-fixated for as long as possible. Don't give him any reasons to question his conclusions and he will oblige you by failing to re-run his strategic appreciation. Elsewhere load up everything from India that can move and ship it to Oz. Keep it as your reserve army. John3rd is ambitious and will beancount your forces. He'll check your committments and when he figures you've committed everything you have in Oz he'll commit his reserve. When he does this you should FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE GAME unleash your British, Indian and US divisions/armoured regiments. That will break the back of his ground committment and has the potential for eradicating his forces from Oz.

To do this you'll need to hold your reserve deep, far beyond where he would tactically bomb it and you'll need to give up most of northern and eastern Oz. That's fine though, let him gain ground, crow and get psychologically comfortable in the place he prefers - that place where he and his forum readers heap plaudits on him for being "the most aggressive player of the game". Then, let him see what he has been waiting for, the committment of your last mobile forces in the region. He will then commit his reserves, suck them in and then hammer him with your own, significantly larger reserve forces, including as many armour regiments as you can buy out and ship over. This is, essentially, just an updated version of what I did to him in the Gettysburg game. I let him launch an attack, overcome a redoubt, begin to sniff victory and then I smashed an entire sector in with hidden reserves he hadn't previously seen. If you update that basic plan you won't go too far wrong.

By 31st December you should be able to see whether his axis is Rabaul + PM or Rabaul + Solomons and you should be sure that ny59giants has the DEI and isn't being ueber-quick.


I've played him in a PBEM and his psychology is also lighthouse-clear in his previous AARs. If he goes for Rabaul + PM by the end of December then he's going to try to take Oz by coup de main--- probably with the idea of taking Manilla quickly and then shipping the divisions from there south to bolster the initial beachhead he will have made in Oz with the odds and ends he has scraped up.


As for ny59giants. He's not as flashy but he won't take as many losses and he won't simply engage in wasteful action for action's sake. If this is a long game then ny59giants will most definitely be the most difficult opponent. John3rd can be relied to implode if given sufficient opportunity. When you do go over onto the offensive you should seek to advance through territory defended by John3rd and engage in "teasing attacks" showing forces just tantalisingly out of reach. He won't be able to resist going after you and he won't learn.

In my game vs Damian I used to be able to show CVs and transports etc and tease him with an incipient attack. He would then attack and lose hordes of ships and planes as they ran into a buzzsaw of a trap I'd created from 2nd echelon bases. After a few such incidents Damian has learned and recently turned down several opportunities for decisive battles. John3rd will fall for such teasing and should keep falling for it until the point where his navy is impotent is reached. That'd be the strategic and operational nous of how I'd go after him.

[X(]

Wow Nemo121.
I definitely would have a bad feeling fighting you. And I would committ sepukku before fighting you twice... [:D]

[gladiatt]

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

FORBIDDEN TO OUR DEAREST OPPONENTS OF COURSE

The Shipwreck of Their Hopes: Good'Guyz (aka "The Allied") Side: Miller/Fish against the Evil.

Miller and your humble servant here decided to undertake a great crusade to liberate the soybean fields of China. After years of threat and dubious overseas investments, the Evil Japanese Empire, led by the no-less evil John 3rd and ny59giants of infamous fame (did I already point out they were THAT evil?) decided to go into a big rampage throughout Asia, and kick our sorry butts.

Britain, being the worst place on Earth to have a meal, has been able to resist Axis invasion so far, scaring possible invaders with mountains of pudding and green jelly. We are going to stand, together with the brave homeless Dutch (but beware, they have nothin' to lose then!) and the Australians-without-an-army-right-now (cuz it's so much fancier fighting and losing in Tobruk while the IJA is having a Tupperware meeting on your doorstep) under my enlightened command (but let me buy a new light first). Miller will play the cool guy, in blue uniform, that comes to the rescue of the cheap little bro who used to be its former colonizer. If this didn't sound cool enough yet, you've got to see what kind of toys he's bringing over, that's cute (I don't have as many toys as he has, but I have great cigars though, I don't care, although I hope he'll allow me to play with some).

We'll go through a better presentation later. Just be aware there isn't gonna be any kind of rest or mercy for the soybean thefts. Justice shall prevail!

ALLEZ LES VERTS.... (bein oui, les icones sont en verts, non ??)
cet AAR là, je vais le suivre, il a l'air bien parti [;)].
(i think it will be a good training for Fishbed to translate this to his partner Miller [:D] ).

[Nemo121]

LoBaron, why? What's wrong with an assessment of an opponent? Its something we should all do.

[kfmiller41]

Yeh but you sound like you could commit him to an asylum based on that writeup[:D]

[Nemo121]

LOL, if you think that's bad you should see what I write on people I do involuntarily commit [8D]

No, in the greater scheme of things a bit of grandiosity and ego-syntonic play isn't harming anyone or causing any trouble.

[JuanG]

Hey, thought I'd pop in here too despite the fact I tend to hang around the dark side more...[:D]

The scenario is available for download in the AltWNT thread, so grab it and have a look at what you plan to do - I understand it that you guys are also allowed small changes to the setup, so let me know what these are and I will work them into a custom version for you guys.

Also, regarding aircraft shortages - while this may still be the case somewhat, you do get a -lot- more aircraft through '42 than you do in stock. Make em count.

Thanks,
Juan

[Fishbed]

Thanks Juan! I go grab it.

[Fishbed]

Ok guys. After a first look, the game seems pretty interesting. We're starting with only 4 US CVs and 1 Illustrious, but we have some more toys to handle (more Battlecruisers class, especially). But Im afraid Miller is gonna lose big deal in PH (with a modern BB and a Lexington class BC). Considering our weak CV force until June, I guess we'll have to run until then, and try not to face KB with carriers. Im gonna lose a handsome BB in Singapore too.

Knowing the premises, we may go for no December 7th surprise... What do you think Miller? Should we ask?

[Fishbed]

Ok, strategy bits

- China: this will be my first GC, and understandbly, my first game in mainland China. From what Ive seen in other games, I came to several conclusions (feel free to criticize and comment)
* supply is always critical: in order not to waste a single tael, I have decided to set my harmed or defeated Chinese troops on "no replacement": replacements eat supply, and there is no point in wasting supplies for units which can't stand their ground anymore. We'll try to keep a healthy amount of replacements available, and take advantage of the regeneration rule for Chinese corps. We will not throw the kitchen sink in vain.

* forts: all available engineers will be asked into several places where they'll be able to build up forts to an acceptable level, while the frontline will hamper the japanese offensive as well as possible.

* infiltration: we have to disturb Japanese movement as much as we can with weak units, able to cut main line of communications, forcing the IJA to maintain a good frontline and a good presence in its backyard. Time a most precious asset for the Japanese player.

* non-agression stance: if they don't come for me, I won't go for them. Offensive ops in China a costly in an atmosphere of constant supply shortage. I will not challenge the IJA unless Im being challenged myself.

[Smeulders]

There aren't many AAR at the moment with the patch 2 garrisons for the Japanese, this will probably tie up a whole lot of forces and the lack of reserves may enable you to launch a couple of small counter-attacks. I'd focus on hurting the Chinese collaborator units, these do have limited reinforcements (1 Chinese squad per month!) so if you damage them, they can hardly be rebuild, forcing him to use high-value Japanese units for garrison purposes.

[Fishbed]

Thanks for the advices. Sure, the collaborators should pay first anyway!!!

(but... this replacement rate, isn't it somekind of bug...?)

[JuanG]

I agree that its rather low, but as thats the way it was in stock, thats what I left it as, despite being tempted to increase it to say 5 or 10.

[Canoerebel]

My recommendations about China are, naturally, based upon my own experience there.  With that caveat:

1.  Chinese troops in fortified bases perform fairly well (exceedingly well in comparison to Chinese troops in the open).  Moreover, your opponents might attack you, which helps you in two ways - bloodies your opponents and raises the experience level for your own troops.

2.  So find, garrision, and fortify an MLR.  Changteh, Changsha, Hengyang, Kweilin, and Liuchow are obvious points on an MLR.  To the south, you may (or may not, depending upon your opponents desires) have a chance to include Nanning.  To the north, your opponents may push you back to Sian, or they may give you a chance to establish a strong line at Nanyang, Chengchow and Loyang.  Don't sweat it if you lose the last three bases listed plus Nanning as you still have a viable MLR.  But if you lose Sian, Changteh, Changsha, or Kweilin, start sweating in copious amounts.

3.  Consider carefully before changing unit prep target.  Your units begin at 100% prep for various targets though seldom targeting the ones you want them to target.  Rather than switching them, though, you may be better off allowing them to train and gain experience (only troops at 100% prep levels can train).

4. Unless your opponents are inexperienced or sloppy it probably isn't worth going on the offensive in China - at least not with the expectation of taking and holding ground.  You're sticking your neck out and the Japanese can usually mount a quick and decisive counterattack that could leave you worse off then you were before.  The only reason to go on the offensive - or to threaten to - is to keep your opponents honest or off balance. 

5.  By mid-43 the Chinese begin getting some decent aircraft.  If your MLR and troops are still in good shape by that point you can begin contemplating how and where you want to go on the offensive in China.

My impression of China is that the best the Allies can hope for deep into the game is a stalemate.  But we're playing Scenario 2 and started the game after patch one; perhaps things are different in other scenarios and with the additional patches and hotfixes.