Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

8/25/43 to 8/28/43
 
DEI:  Miller has suddenly stepped up efforts to reinforce northeastern DEI - another unit landed at Sorong doubling the garrison.  I suspect this is an infantry division.  He also landed another small unit a Mankwari.  Nothing I can do about it - I can't move unitil my carriers arrive (they're midway between Auckland and Townsville, so they aren't far).  The bright side would be if (big if) Miller is scrambling to reinforce forward bases and neglects bases further back like Morotai and Talaud Island.  A Japanese sub sighted BB Indiana, so Miller knows the Allies are reinforcing this region.  There's no way of gaining strategic suprise and I think even tactical surprise will be tough.  I'm not going to get real clever here.  Once my carriers arrive I'm just going to move on Boela with everything I have.
 
Burma:  Japanese fighters returned to Rangoon in big numbers and chewed up the Allied sweep (as usual).  The Japanese always come out ahead in the air wars.  That doesn't feel right for late '43, but I honestly don't know if the problem is my inadequecies in pilot training or the ease with which the Japanese can train or both.

[Canoerebel]

The Boela invasion force began loading.  This should be overkill, but the troops are prepped so they'll all go:
 
Infantry:  32nd USA Infantry Division; 14, 16 and 23 UK Brigades.
Artillery:  134th Field Artillery Regiment
CD/AA:  12th Marine CD; 7th RAA Cst. Arty; 197 Cst. Arty; 76 Cst. Arty
Engineers:  857 EAB; 1st Naval Engineers
HQ/Base Force:  II Aus. HQ; 9th Group RAAF; 170 Wing; USMC Air Pac (100 torpedo ordinance).
 
I have a ton of AKs left over, but not enough APs to carry the Sorong invasion force.  So the invasions will be sequential rather than essentially simultaneous.  Given the recent Japanese reinforcement of Sorong that's okay.

[Canoerebel]

8/29/43 and 8/30/43
 
DEI:  Quiet here as the eve of the offensives nears.  SigInt revealed part of a Japanese infantry division on a maru heading for Morotai.  This is unwelcome news as Morotai is my third big objective.  It currently has a level 0 airfield.  I'd rather it was lightly guarded, but I think Miller has waited until too late to see to the northeastern DEI.  Not that he was negligent - he just had to focus first on the vulnerable bases closer to the heart of the DEI.  The Allied CVEs are nearing the Torres Strait.  The fleet carriers stopped in Townsville to refuel and should catch up in a few days.  CV Wasp will finish upgrading at Auckland in four days.  All troops for the Boela invasion have loaded on the transports at Darwin.  They will likely set sail in four days.  D-Day should be eight to ten days away.

CenPac:  Abemama, just south of Tarawa, will go to level one port and airfield tomorrow.  The Allies are sending a sea bee unit to Makin.  Once the three CVEs at Pearl finish repairing, the Allies will have five in this theater.  At that point I'll look into moves on islands north or west of Makin and Abemama.

Allied Grand Strategy:  The Allies have patiently built up infrastructure (big bases) and troop concentration (at Darwin).  With the ships about to arrive on the scene the Allies must begin a sustained, lengthy series of moves to advance deep into Japanese territory.  I have more than enough troops to take the bases I want (or to bypass any that look too tough in favor of the multitude of dot hexes with big potential).  The only thing that can stop the Allies in the short term is to lose carrier cover. 

Japanese Grant Strategy:  As I've said since day one, Miller excels at tactical defense.  So the upcoming contest is just he kind he loves and does well at.  I expect him to offer a vigorous, well-thought-out defense.  I expect him to throw everything he has at the Allies at what seems, to him, to be a propitious moment.  This will include his carriers, combat ships, and massed LBA.  I don't know if the Boela invasion will trigger this since he has lightly garrisoned the base, but I'll be on guard.  If not Boela, though, then the moves on Sorong and Morotai will definately trigger a violent reaction.  The real wildcard will be Japanese submarines.  They have been absolutely amazing in the game to date.  I'm very worried about my carriers in these restricted waters. 

[Canoerebel]

Note to self:

The Allied carrier operations in confined waters, sub threat, and "weird things happen like what happened to Cuttlefish" has been on my mind alot.

The carriers will be operating in the sea between New Guinea and Ceram. There's a narrow pass into these waters from Oz. The island of Garantola (dot hex) is in this choke point. Miller has already posted subs here. I expect more of the same. I wouldn't be surprised if he also mined the hex and sent TFs to try to really screw with the movement of the Allied CV TFs.

I need to post minesweeper TFs in the hex along with a combat TF that can handle any "small stuff."

[Canoerebel]

Okay, okay, okay.  Something is up...I think.  Nobody's posting in here these days.  Usually that means folks are trying to guard their tongues lest they give something away.  I need to check my sea lanes, watch my flanks, and be on guard everywhere for anything and everything.  IE, something's up but I have no idea what or where...so this "intuition" is of no help.
 
The Allied carrier force revealed itself while passing through the Torres Straight.  Hellcats flew escort for some B-25s targeting Port Moresby.    The smallest things, but I just can't think that far ahead and that intricately.  Anyhow, I wasn't expecting to arrive unnanounced...and Miller probably wonders if this might be a diversion.
 
 

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Okay, okay, okay.  Something is up...I think.  Nobody's posting in here these days.  Usually that means folks are trying to guard their tongues lest they give something away.  I need to check my sea lanes, watch my flanks, and be on guard everywhere for anything and everything.  IE, something's up but I have no idea what or where...so this "intuition" is of no help.

OK, this is just too good . . . [:)]

Seriously, one thing I notice in your AARs is how much you inner-debate head-fakes, deception, feints, etc. in your planning. Sometimes you may be doing this when necessary (early war for sure) and other times you talk yourself out of doing the Right Thing. (You are or were an attorney, right? I work with you guys, so I can understand the impulse.[:)])

The times now, and your carefully designed plans, call for Just Doing It. Roll over him. Use the forces coming to you to march in there and pound him. If his recent strike on Darwin (which, as you know, WAS discussed elsewhere in these forums) shows anything, it's that he's thinking just this way already. He has a shrinking window of time to slow you down and bloody you; Darwin demonstrated he realizes this. He's going to try to cut you up from here on out until he can't anymore. Accept that, take your lumps, and go on and win the game. Don't be too subtle about it.

As to your fears, I'm not aware of anywhere in here where Miller's plans are being debated, discussed, or embellished. I think forum traffic is down due to the Olympics (hey, I'm an optimist), Patch 3, the loss of so much developer input after the Recent Unpleasantness, and perhaps winter weariness. But so far as I know there's no grand cabal plotting your demise. Ignore those voices inside and go begin to put the hurt on him.

Oh, yeah. If an AI game is worth anything, the sea areas you're sending your carriers into IS a submarine buffet. It's just geographical reality. You're going to take some torpedoes. War is hell, man.[8D]

[Cathartes]

Okay, okay, okay. Something is up...I think.

I'm not telling.[:D]

Even if I had a clue.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Okay, okay, okay.  Something is up...I think.  Nobody's posting in here these days.  Usually that means folks are trying to guard their tongues lest they give something away.  I need to check my sea lanes, watch my flanks, and be on guard everywhere for anything and everything.  IE, something's up but I have no idea what or where...so this "intuition" is of no help.

The Allied carrier force revealed itself while passing through the Torres Straight.  Hellcats flew escort for some B-25s targeting Port Moresby.    The smallest things, but I just can't think that far ahead and that intricately.  Anyhow, I wasn't expecting to arrive unnanounced...and Miller probably wonders if this might be a diversion.

But Miller does not post an AAR. How would we know?

[Canoerebel]

Ve have vays of making you talk....
 
Bullwinkle, no "sleight of hand tricks this time."  The invasion force just goes straight to Boela. The transports and accompanying TFs (combat, minesweeping, ASW) leave Darwin tonight.  The carrier TFs are west of Merauke, New Guinea, so they'll rendezvous tomorrow and provide cover.  D-Day should be no more than three or four days away.

[Canoerebel]

8/31/43 to 9/3/43
 
DEI:  D-Day for the invasion of Boela will take place on the 4th (or 5th if the ships dally).  The 2nd and 3rd were perfectly normal - no signs of massed Japanese ships or other mayhem, but Miller sighted the TFs so he has time to pounce.  There were a bunch of Japanese subs in the area - one of them sank an Allied sub [the third I've lost that way - I swear Jap subs have been on steroids this game). 
 
The invasion fleet consists of three big TFs accompanied by two combat TFs (each has two good BBs), plus some ASW and MSW TFs.  The "second wave TFs" will take station one hex east of Boela.  All carriers, a big combat TF, replenishment TF, and ASW TF will take station two hexes south of Boela (meaning my carriers aren't entering the tight waters between New Guinea and Ceram).
 
Two Allied DM TFs will lay mines in the narrow channel on the north side of Ceram.
 
If my troops unload in good order the campaign should go quickly - the Allies have overwhelming force.  As soon as the transports unload they will return to Darwin to pick up the Sorong invasion troops.  We'll see if that plan holds together well.
 
The best thing about this invasion is that it takes place close to a bunch of Allied bases with good fighters - Babo is a level two, Kaimana a four, and Kai-eilenden a four (or five?).
 
Allied 4EB have flown many raids vs. the airfields at Ambon, Boela and Sorong, so LBA shouldn't be able to fly from close bases.
 
I'm going to try a bit of trickery - I'm switching the B-24D1s to target Kendari's port - I'd like to pick off the badly damaged CA Takao if possible.
 
This is the first Allied invasion of the game in which I wasn't holding my breath hoping that surprise had caught the Japanese carriers far away.  IE, it's the first time the Allies had the strength to go "toe-to-toe."
 
I've reduced range on on carrier aircraft to six.  I hope that will reduce the chance of my carrier air going astray on a lark - Miller loves to sacrifice CVEs in forward TFs to soak up attacks.
 
I'll post the results as soon as they come in.
 
On to D-Day!
 
 

[Canoerebel]

While awaiting for the D-Day results, here are some summaries of the "tours of duty" for various units/ships in the game:
 
1)  108th Indian Brigade:  began in Malaya, got cut off from Singapore, air evacuated to Sumatra, evacuated by sea to Ceylon, was to take part in the aborted invasion of Port Blair, and has served garrison duty in Hyderabad since early '42.
 
2)  CA San Francisco:  badly damaged in the Japanese sneak attack at Pearl Harbor, this ship underwent repairs at Pearl and then took part in the wild fighting around Paramushiro Jima.  She's currently attached as an escort to a CVE TF.
 
3)  BB West Virginia:  badly damaged in the Pearl Harbor attack, during the late summer of '42 she made for the yards at Alameda.  Escorted by four DDs, Japanese submarines off the coast picked her off.
 
4)  BB Ramillies:  Took unbelievable damage during the aborted invasion of Port Blair and was torpedoed trying to make the yards in Ceylon. Somehow she made Madras where she remained for more than a year.  Finally, she went to the yards at Colombo.  The repairs were recently completed and she's currently on her way to Perth.  She'll become part of the Allied force in the DEI.
 
5)  41st U.S. Infantry Division:  She was lifted post-haste from San Diego to Noumea at the start of the war.  AP Queen Elizabeth carried the first cadre, but was too large to unload, so she diverted to Auckland.  41st remained at Noumea for well over a year.  Recently she moved to Darwin where she's prepping for Sorong.

[Canoerebel]

I've got to run, but it looks like the invasion is the real turning point of the war.  It appears that the Japanese navy is shredded - Miller committed his remaining BBs and all or nearly all of them took heavy damage.  I'm guessing at least two to four will go down.  Several CAs also took heavy damage.  The landings went without a hitch - 650 AV ashore.  The defense is 150 AV and shouldn't last long.
 
Miller's email summary:  "An awful turn for me, but it could have been worse........."  I won't be able to view the turn file until tomorrow so I'm not sure what the "could have been worse" is referring to.
 
A great victory for the Allies.
 
I'll post details later. 
 

[Canoerebel]

The hits scored against the IJN:

BB Nagato:  2 T / 0 B
BB Mutsu:  2 T / 5 B
BB Ise:  4 T / 7 B (sunk)
BB Hyuga:  5 T / 1 B (sunk)
BB Yamato:  3 T / 0 B
BB Yamashiro:  0 T / 3 B
BB Fuso:  0 T / 1 B
CA Myoko:  1 T / 0 B
CA Kumano: 1 T / 0 B
CA Mogami:  2 T / 0 B
CA Mikuma:  3 T / 0 B
CL Agano: 0 T / 1 B

There were 26 Zero and Tojo flying CAP - woefully inadequate.  I don't yet know what happened as I haven't viewed the actual combat replay.  I'll have to ask Miller what happened to lead a massive force into the teeth of a massive carrier force without adequate CAP.

No Allied combat ships suffered any damage (a minor miracle given the number of subs in the area).  Two AKs were sunk by subs during the two-day turn.

I see what Miller meant about "it could have been worse" though.  He lost two BBs but might have lost quite a few more had some of the initial strikes had some success.  When I first began reading the combat report I was disheartened by the missions going in with no hits:

1.  17 F4F, 21 TBF - no hits.
2.  29 F4F, 18 F6F, 32 Hellcats, 29 SBD-5, 9 TBF - one bomb hit on CL Agano
3.  28 F6F, 33 SBD-5, 18 TBF - no hits.
4.  2 Marletts, 18 F6F, 18 TBF - no hits.
5.  18 TBF - no hits.
6.  Hits commenced beginning with the sixth strike.

While much of the IJN can repair given time, this should neuter the Japanese Navy in the DEI for awhile, making Allied ship movements much more secure.  The Japanese have thus far lost six BBs in the game and probably have one or two that are seaworthy (Musashi and Fuso).  The Allies have a bunch:  Massachusetts, South Dakota, Indiana, North Carolina, Maryland, Colorado, Prince of Wales, Royal Sovereign, Revenge, Ramilles, and one other are in or nearing the DEI. 

[John 3rd]

Damn.  This victory shall certainly open up your campaign there in a big way.  After seeing your CV Air, I doubt if he'll commit his CVs unless he has a BUNCH of LBA.  Considering the lack of CAP over those BBs it doesn't APPEAR that there are very many planes available for him to work with.  He should consider himself darned lucky looking at those strike results...
 

[Canoerebel]

9/4/43 to 9/7/43
 
Battle of the Ceram Sea:  As summarized above this was a great victory for the Allies.  The Japanese combat fleet is crippled for awhile though I think just two BBs (Hyuga and Ise) and possibly one CA went down (Miller says he lost three BBs - Mutsu would be the third).  Most of the rest of the Japanese BBs will be in the shop at least for a few months, giving the Allies combat ship superiority in the DEI during that interval.  The cost to Allied carrier air was pretty steep, though, which will prevent the Allies from getting too frisky.  On the day the Allies lost 211 aircraft (56 a-2-a, 0 field, 91 flak, 64 ops) while the Japanese lost 80 (and most of those were Jakes on naval search). 
 
What's Next:  This was a complicated question:  Pursue the crippled Japanese combat ships?  Move further into the Banda Sea to hit Kendari?  Move north into the Ceram Sea to hit any reinforcement convoys moving to Morotai?  Given the attrition to the carrier squadrons and the main priority of furthering Allied invasions, I elected to keep the carriers in place - they'll move one hex east and continue to provide cover for the ships at Boela.
 
Operation Fort Donelson:  These landings went remarkably well.  I'm not used to my troops getting ashore in good shape (Parmushiro, Baker Island, Makin Island being three examples).  For those of you looking for useful info:  the three British brigades are 100% prepped for Boela and came ashore untouched by disruption.  The US Infantry Division is just 35% prepped for Boela and is 1/3rd disrupted.  'Nuff said.  The Allies will try a deliberate attack tomorrow - it'll be about 600 AV against about 150 AV (a Japanese garrison unit).  The attack will be preceeded by a naval bombardment.
 
Operation Fort Henry:  Another decision - should the next invasion target what I think is the lightly held, but more advanced and exposed, Morotai, or should I stick with the plan to hit the heavily defended Sorong, which is closer to Allied bases.  I gave this alot of thought and dediced to go with Sorong.  41st Division will begin loading, but I'll have to wait for some of the Boela transports to return to Darwin to load the rest.
 
What Went Wrong for the Japanese:  The Japanese combat ships were four hexes north of Boela and four hexes west of Sorong.  Miller said he expected me to hit Sorong.  I think he expected his ships to react to the Allied ships whichever beach I hit, but I don't think combat ships will react unless they are in a home port.  It might have been better for him this way, though.  Had he tangled with the Allied combat ships at Boela all of his cripples would have been withing range of Allied carriers and the damage might have been considerably greater.  Also, at least three Allied TBFs scored "hit but no explosion" vs. Japanese BBs.  So, while the damage to the IJN was great it might have been greater.
 
Kendari:  The B-24 raid against Kendari scored four more hits against the crippled CA Takao.
 
Ambon:  Once the Allies secure Boela, Ambon should cease to be a viable base for the Japanese.
 
Sorong:  Once the Allies secure Sorong, Morotai should cease to be a vialbe base for the Japanese.  Also, the Allies will then have "broken through" the DEI and will have a port on the Pacific Ocean.

[Canoerebel]

Map of the Battle of the Ceram Sea:

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I see what Miller meant about "it could have been worse" though.  He lost two BBs but might have lost quite a few more had some of the initial strikes had some success.  When I first began reading the combat report I was disheartened by the missions going in with no hits:

I wonder if his comment means he DID have CVs close by, but they didn't fly (low CAP) and you also didn't find them? What's the weather doing?

[Canoerebel]

Good question and something I've been mulling over:  What if Miller looses his carriers on mine now that I've lost nearly 200 in the attacks on his combat ships?
 
I don't *think* he had carriers close by given the big losses in carrier air he suffered awhile back.  While I have my carrier aircraft set to max range six, which limits my search coverage a bit, but I also have good patrol squadrons at Saumlaki and Babar islands which covers most of this part of the DEI.
 
Out of an abundance of caution, though, I pulled my carriers back just a bit to get them closer to the land-based fighters at Babo, Kaimana, and Kai-eilenden.

[Canoerebel]

Well, Bullwinkle was right.  Miller did send his carriers into the fray, but the results weren't what either expected. First, I wasn't expecting him to commit his carriers.  Second, his carriers mainly launched fighters and just a few dozen Kates over two days.  Third, the six-hex limit I placed on my carrier aircraft prevented any Allied strikes (probably a good thing given how tuckered they were from the prior two days).  Fourth, his aircraft were targeting the transports at Boela, not the carriers just to the south.
 
Overall, this was much ado about nothing - Miller probably lost a goodly number of aircraft (Netties and Francis bombers were roughed up).  I'd say he lost 10:1 in numbers of aircraft.
 
The bad news is that all this fighting will wear out the Allied carrier squadrons.  The good news is that Boela fell easily, meaning nearly all the ships can return to Darwin to refuel, resupply, and prepare for the invasion of Sorong.

[Canoerebel]

9/8/43 to 9/9/43
 
Battle of the Ceram Sea:  Miller suprised me (but not Bullwinkle) by sending in his carriers - sightings included Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu, Ryujo, Hiyo, Hosho, Taiho, Unryu, Amagi, Chuyoda, Nisshin, and Mizwho.  They took station just north of Ambon.  Miller said that only 10% of his strike aircraft sortied for reasons unknown.  A combination of Japanese carrier- and land-based air targeted the Allied transports unloading at Boela, but did little damage.  CAP was provided by Allied carriers and LBA.  Two AKs were hit.  In return, the Allies downed 240 aircraft (200 a-2-a, 5 field, 4 flak, 31 ops) at a cost of 122 (88 a-2-a, 0 field, 2 flak, 32 ops). 
 
Battle of Boela:  The Allies claim Boela on the first try.  This is important because the level two airfield is in good shape.  With 140 base force capability ashore, the Allies have moved two P-40 squadrons to this base.  Operation Fort Donelson concludes - perhaps the best invasion I've managed to put together in my WitP/AE days.  Very light losses, punished the enemy (thanks in no small part to Miller's misfortunes in orchestrating his attacks), and the airfield is already operational.
 
What's Next:  The combat TFs, carrier TFs, and all transports that aren't carrying troops shall retire to Darwin to replenish.  A handful of troops transports will continue unloading.  (Miller just advised that his carriers remained on station, so if they launch everything they have they'll take out that handful of transports, but at some cost since there should be a good bit of CAP).
 
Operation Fort Henry:  The Sorong invasion troops are loading at Darwin.  I had a big force already 100% prepped, but when Miller reinforced Sorong I added more - many of these are only lightly prepped.  I'm loading the high prep troops first.  Then, if there is additional space, I'll add some of the lower prep troops.  Those troops loading at the moment:  41st Infantry Division; 2nd and 29th Aussie Brigades; 10 and 15 Marine CD; 3rd Marine Raiders; 2nd Jungle Arty; 2nd Medium Arty; 226 Field Arty; 2nd Royal Tanks.  Total AV:  740.  The low prep troops that may join the operation amount to another 400 AV.  It's clear, now, that Miller is willing to throw everything he has at to halt this advance.  I understand why - he must feel that he's never going to have better odds.  But with the Allied bases in the area to compliment the carriers I think the Allies are likely to win the coming battle.  (P.S.  CV Wasp will join her comrades at Darwin within the week).
 
Operation Island Number 10:  Recon shows Japanese torops landing at Morotai (this had been anticipated as a result of good SigInt).  I think these are the first troops to come ashore at Morotai, so it's not going to have much in the way of forts.  I think Miller's too late to really get this base in shape.