Possible retreating bug

[Ted1066]

Hey Marshall,

I'm in a PBEM game as Russia and I have now encountered for a 4th turn in a row a Turkish cav managing to withdraw. Once or twice I can chalk up to good luck, but 4 times in a row begins to push the bounds of reasonable expectation. There's about a 1% chance of being able to perform this over 4 consecutive turns. I'd like to find out if you can investigate the savegame; I'm wondering if perhaps there is some bug in the code that is holding over the first successful withdraw similar to the dice rolls being kept into successive days of combat. FYI, the roll has been a 1 every time, so my math is incorrect and it is less than a 1% chance to achieve this result over 4 consecutive months.

I have attached the savegame file for your perusal. Looking in the log you will see the withdraw by Turkey in Sep, Aug, Jul and Jun months. I know that you're busy, but if you could take a look at this it will allow our PBEM game to proceed.

Cheers,

Ted

[DCWhitworth]

The odds may not be as bad as you think. Check table 14.9 - an all cavalry force gets +1 to the leader's strategic rating when trying to withdraw and another +1 if Echelon or Outflank is picked. So the odds of a withdraw could be as good as 50% for any particular instance.

[Marshall Ellis]

I'll look at it!

[Ted1066]

ORIGINAL: DCWhitworth

The odds may not be as bad as you think. Check table 14.9 - an all cavalry force gets +1 to the leader's strategic rating when trying to withdraw and another +1 if Echelon or Outflank is picked. So the odds of a withdraw could be as good as 50% for any particular instance.

DC,

You really need to check your charts again - the +1 is IF you're a cav corps and it applies to ALL offensive chit selections, except Probe which results in an automatic withdraw.

Second, if the random number generator was generating random numbers (1's and 2's) I would not be making a stink about this in my PBEM game. However, the roll has been a '1' the last 4 times in a row - that's a 1 in 1296 chance.

Ted

[ndrose]

ORIGINAL: Ted1066

ORIGINAL: DCWhitworth

The odds may not be as bad as you think. Check table 14.9 - an all cavalry force gets +1 to the leader's strategic rating when trying to withdraw and another +1 if Echelon or Outflank is picked. So the odds of a withdraw could be as good as 50% for any particular instance.

DC,

You really need to check your charts again - the +1 is IF you're a cav corps and it applies to ALL offensive chit selections, except Probe which results in an automatic withdraw.

Second, if the random number generator was generating random numbers (1's and 2's) I would not be making a stink about this in my PBEM game. However, the roll has been a '1' the last 4 times in a row - that's a 1 in 1296 chance.

Ted

I believe David is correct about the modifiers: +1 for cav for all chits, yes, but *also* another +1 against outflank and echelon. (Also auto-withdraw against probe.)

If the game's really rolling lots of 1's that may be a problem, but it has appeared in other situations that sometimes the log reports a "1" when something else is really going on.

[Ted1066]

Have either of you taken the time to read the charts? I'm curious, because its pretty clear where only ONE '+1' modifier comes from. In Table 14.9, a defender gets a '+1' to their strat rating IF they are comprised entirely of cav or cossacks/freikorps, referred to as Note (H). Note (H) ONLY comes into play if the attacker has selected any of outflank, assault, esc. assault or echelon as his attack chit. Otherwise, withdrawal is automatic (i.e. a probe selection by the attacker).

Now, please tell me where this additional '+1' comes from, because I'm very curious.

Ted

[ndrose]

ORIGINAL: Ted1066

Have either of you taken the time to read the charts? I'm curious, because its pretty clear where only ONE '+1' modifier comes from. In Table 14.9, a defender gets a '+1' to their strat rating IF they are comprised entirely of cav or cossacks/freikorps, referred to as Note (H). Note (H) ONLY comes into play if the attacker has selected any of outflank, assault, esc. assault or echelon as his attack chit. Otherwise, withdrawal is automatic (i.e. a probe selection by the attacker).

Now, please tell me where this additional '+1' comes from, because I'm very curious.

Ted

It's printed right on the chart, not as one of the footnotes, but in the main cells of the chart. For Assault and Esc. Assault it says "Throw strategic rating or less to withdraw", but for Outflank and Echelon it says "Throw strategic rating +1 or less to withdraw."