Shattered Vow

[Grotius]

Congratulations, Canoerebel-san. Lautem is a major step forward for you. And I hadn't realized it was so close to Manassas, Virginia.

[Canoerebel]

10/10/43 and 10/11/43
 
Operation Fort Henry:  All systems go.  The turn-around was smooth and fast as all transports fully loaded within two days (APAs are amazing tools - wait until you get them in '43) and all carriers refreshed and resupplied.  The transports embark tonight for Sorong, escorted by two big CVE TFs and a mixture of combat, ASW, and MSW TFs.  Two big combat TFs accompanied by three fleet carrier TFs also depart tonight and will sprint to a point about six or seven hexes SE of Ternate, the only big and operational airfield the Japanese have in the area.  Barring an unforeseen development (I'm not expecting to encounter big combat TFs or carriers, but you never know), the Hellcats, SBDs, and Helldivers are scheduled to hit Ternate's airfield in two days.  I hope that this raid, in conjuction with 4EB strikes, will cripple this airfield.  I anticipate D-Day at Sorong to occur in five days.  These are very narrow waters ripe for interception, subs, mines, and other woes, so I'm holding my breath.
 
CenPac:  Betties from Maloelap hammered several of the Ocean Island (Operation Perryville) transports, but the Fiji commandoes got ashore and took the island.

[Canoerebel]

10/12/43 and 10/13/43

Operation Fort Henry: The complicated and risky Allied invasion of Sorong is underway with D-Day three days off (see map below). Developments:

1. Allied combat and carrier TFs took position just north of Ceram without incident (no Japanese carriers or LBA strikes). This is important because these ships are in perfect position to shield the transports.

2. The Allied carriers sent massed Hellcat/SBD-5 strikes against Ternate's airfield - losses were light but I don't think the airfield is shut down.

3. The transports left Darwin in good order (with one exception). Most of them are near Saumlaki. D-Day should be three days. Some of the faster transports may arrive in two days, which is fine. The one exception was a TF carrying two Marine CD units, which lagged at Darwin loading supplies. That TF will get underway tonight.

4. DM TFs will lay mines at a variety of islands in choke points, hoping to make more hazardous the likely routes of interdiction for IJN combat ships. An AD is located in port at Boela, so these DMs should be able to replenish immediately.

5. Boela is a size five airfield, Babo a three, and Kaimana a six. At the time the aborted invasion a month ago, Boela and Babo were both level two fields - so scrubbing the original invasion schedule means the Allies can provide much more land-based CAP. (A nod to Bullwinkle for suggesting this - a course that also resulted in the Allies moving on Lautem - an operation that named Bull Run as a nod of the cap to Bullwinkle).

6. The Allies have about 1500 AV prepped 100% for Sorong. The garrison is 20k strong -probably a division and a few support units. If the troops come ashore in good shape I think Sorong will fall fairly quickly. Forts should be no more than two or three since the Allies have steadily bombed Sorong since the Japanese garrisoned the base.

7. Given Miller's recent unfortunate experience with his carriers (failure to strike in a coordinated, meaningful way at long distance), I expect him to send his carriers in fairly close. I also expect him to commit his combat ships. That the Allies have arrived first and can position the combat TFs and carriers optimally offers some relief. The Japanese have vast numbers of carrier and land-based squadrons, so I expect the air-sea battle to be massive and bloody.

8. CV Victorious is due for withdrawal tomorrow. No way I withdraw her until this battle is over. I'll pay dearly in PP, and I only have 400 at the moment, but this may be the biggest battle of the war.

CenPac: Some kind of Japanese TF is moving south from the Kwajalein/Maloelap vicinity. It's either bringing supplies to Tarawa or an invasion TF targeting Ocean Island, Makin, or Abemama. No matter what it is, though, it means nothing strategically.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/12/43 and 10/13/43

Operation Fort Henry: The complicated and risky Allied invasion of Sorong is underway with D-Day three days off (see map below). Developments:

2. The Allied carriers sent massed Hellcat/SBD-5 strikes against Ternate's airfield - losses were light but I don't think the airfield is shut down.

4. DM TFs will lay mines at a variety of islands in choke points, hoping to make more hazardous the likely routes of interdiction for IJN combat ships. An AD is located in port at Boela, so these DMs should be able to replenish immediately.

5. Boela is a size five airfield, Babo a three, and Kaimana a six. At the time the aborted invasion a month ago, Boela and Babo were both level two fields - so scrubbing the original invasion schedule means the Allies can provide much more land-based CAP. (A nod to Bullwinkle for suggesting this - a course that also resulted in the Allies moving on Lautem - an operation that named Bull Run as a nod of the cap to Bullwinkle).

6. The Allies have about 1500 AV prepped 100% for Sorong. The garrison is 20k strong -probably a division and a few support units. If the troops come ashore in good shape I think Sorong will fall fairly quickly. Forts should be no more than two or three since the Allies have steadily bombed Sorong since the Japanese garrisoned the base.

7. Given Miller's recent unfortunate experience with his carriers (failure to strike in a coordinated, meaningful way at long distance), I expect him to send his carriers in fairly close. I also expect him to commit his combat ships. That the Allies have arrived first and can position the combat TFs and carriers optimally offers some relief. The Japanese have vast numbers of carrier and land-based squadrons, so I expect the air-sea battle to be massive and bloody.

2. I've never been able to do more than dent/make mad shore airfields with carrier air. Not like in WITP. Runway hits don't seem to be a huge limiting factor, and the supply losses usually are barely worth the carrier plane damage/losses. Still, if those planes are sitting around doing nothing, it doesn't hurt.

4. I like this. I've not seen (in the only couple of other AARs I've skimmed) mines used as a choke point deterrent, as is their modern use. Always in hexes. They decay fast out in the staits, but if they're there they're psychological, and may get a hit or two. Kudos on this tactic. It's hard to engineer in that part of the ocean with short-legged layers

5. Aw, shucks.[:)]

6. 20k is a pretty good rock with even level 3 forts. Be concerned if some of the non-division guys are a decent CD unit. Patch 3 juiced CD a good bit. Might influence your arrival timing to overlap as many TFs at once as you can, overwhelming the CD, or, 2-day turns might just make this too hard. I'd say though that you've given him leading hints enough that Sorong is on your short-list, as well as time to hustle a CD unit from Pelilu or somewhere similar. Even if, the target is worth losing some transports over.

7. I guess you saw his anguished/pissed/wondering post in the general section, and this is a HUGE op sec leak on his part about his state of mind. He WILL fight, and you're as ready as you can be. Popcorn still in hot standby . . .

Edit: after looking at the map again, do you have your BB TF LRCAPped?

[Canoerebel]

That BB TF is moving to Sorong to bombard.
 
A CL/DD TF will take its place (as a forward guard to just keep an eye on things in the narrow sea lanes north of Ceram).
 
The carriers and other combat TFs will mainly move a bit to the east (a hex closer to Sorong) to provide LRCAP to the bombardment TF hitting Sorong.  They will also be about midway between Boela and Babo, permitting LRCAP to operate more efficiently from both bases.
 
I don't *think* Sorong has a CD unit, but I could be wrong.  I need to give it a bit more thought before I finish the turn.  As things stand now I am sending some of the faster transport TFs ahead hoping that some landings will occur in two days.  I'll at least consider holding all transports together for the reasons you mention.
 

[LoBaron]

Could have mined it though as in his situation I´d try much to make an advance
this important as costly as possibly.

[Canoerebel]

No doubt he's mined Sorong.  I have the usual mix of minesweepers along, but there will be some attrition to mines (just as there was in the Lautem invasion).  A separate MSW TF goes to Sorong tonight and will remain in the hex with the bombardment TF.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/43 and 10/15/43
 
Operation Port Henry:  No carrier or combat clashes and the advanced echelon of Allied troops unload at Sorong in good order.  Highlights (and one lowlight):
 
1.  I think Miller evaluated the Allied carrier air attack on Ternate as a raid, just like the one I did about a month ago.  With all the shipping at sea he might not have noticed the transports or surmised that an invasion was on.  That would explain the lack of "pounce" by the IJN carriers and combat ships.  If that's what happened then last month's raid on Ternate paid an unexpected and valuable dividend.
 
2.  The advance echelon of transports began unloading at Sorong on the 15th.  No mines and no shore guns meant very little in the way of damage to ships or troops.  The Allies already have 500+ AV ashore.  Even if a massive air/sea battle erups tomorrow, this gives the Allies a good chance at making at least the landing aspect go well.
 
3.  Garrison consists of 33rd Divsion, one engineer units, and one base force.
 
4.  The only bad thing was that AE Shasta took two torpedoes at Boela.  She was one of the few I have left (I lost alot of AE/AKE during the Kuriles invasion).
 
5.  An Allied sub torpedoed a IJN sub near Boela (a first for the Allies in our game).
 
6.  A few carrier SBD-5s didn't get the message to stand down from the Ternate airfield raid.  They hit the airfield again along with some 4EB.  Surprisingly, no CAP encountered, so perhaps this dented the airfield a bit more.
 
7.  4EB also targeted Kendari but found lots of CAP and accomplished very little.
 
8.  Miller has to attack over the next two-day period if he wants to disrupt the Sorong landings.
 
Operation Bull Run:  The Allied army has moved from Lautem to Dili and will attack the beaten up Japanese garrison tomorrow.  Once Dili is cleared, most of these troops will begin prepping for a new target.  I think 9th Aussie Division will target Ambon.
 
Operation Island Number Ten:  If (big if) the Sorong invasion goes really well - meaning no unacceptably high losses to transports nor a carrier engagement defeat - then the Morotai invasion will quickly follow.  The units are at Darwin and are 100% prepped.

[Canoerebel]

10/16/43 and 10/17/43
 
Operation Fort Henry (Sorong Invasion):  The Japanese do not contest the landings - no sign of the KB or combat ships.  (In an email Miller said his disastrous loss of 300 Jills and Judys a week or so ago made it impossible for him to attack).  Nearly all troops have landed - most in perfect condition thanks to 100% prep and APAs.  The Allies will try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow.  Resistance in one division that should be highly prepped, so taking the island won't necessarily be easy or quick, but I believe it is inevitable.

Operation Island Number Ten (Upcoming Morotai Invasion):  Ninety percent of the troop transports have unloaded at Sorong and will depart tonight to rendezvous with the carriers.  I expect all ships to start back toward Darwin in two days.  If nothing untoward occurs, they will immediately reload for the invasion of Morotai.  I won't proceed until the Allies have Sorong as I'll need that airfield, but I think it will work out for a D-Day in two or three weeks.

Operation Bull Run (Lautem Invasion and Dili Battle):  Back-to-back Allied attacks dropped forts from two to one, the first coming off at 1:1 and the second at 2:1.  I expect Dili to fall tomorrow.  The base forces have landed at Lautem, all infrastructure damage has been prepared, and the engineers have commenced work on expanding the airfield from level two to (eventually) nine.

What's Next?:  Morotai should be a tough nut as it is close to big airfields at Ternate and Manado.  Once Sorong falls, the Allies will also move east along the northern New Guinea coast to take Manikwari and to take and build Biak.  From Lautem, the Allies will take some of the vacant or lightly guarded islands to the west.  Ambon should be the next big invasion after Morotai - perhaps in five weeks.  After that I'm not sure - my preference is to move west toward Manado, Talaud Island, and then to northeast Borneo or the Philippine Islands south of Mindanao.

SWPac:  The U.S. Cavalry Division prepping for Milne Bay is on the way to Townsville from San Diego.  The Milne Bay invasion should take place in a month or so.

CenPac:  The Allies should take a vacant Nauru Island in a few weeks.  After that I expect things to be quiet until the Allies are ready to hit Marcus and Wake - troops are fully prepped, but 90% of troop transports are committed to the DEI operations at the moment.  I don't expect to move on Marcus or Wake until spring '44.

Burma:  The Allies are positioning troops to advance on Pegu and Rangoon in a few weeks. I don't have enough troops to really threaten Rangoon, but if Miller thinks Pegu could fall he may decide that holding Rangoon isn't possible.  IE, through a bluff the Allies might gain Rangoon.  Or perhaps nothing will come of it.  Reinforcements are on the way so that by early '44 there is some hope that the Allies could actually fight for Rangoon if the Japs don't evacuate.

Japan:  The shift in the balance of power has been so abrupt and decided that its caught both of us by surprise.  Allied carriers are the reason for the shift.  Japan retains its massive carrier and LBA threat, so Miller will pounce at some point in the future - probably where least expected.  So there are many big fights to come, but the Battles of the Eastern DEI from August to October 1943 were decisive - before then the Japanese held the initiative; now the Allies hold it.

Kamikazes:  Don't know if the Allied invasion of the Kuriles in '43 triggered them...but I'm going to assume it did. 

Sub Wars:  Given the total, unbeleiveable record posted by Japanese subs in the game, I was positive that they would wreak havoc on the combat ships and carriers confined in the narrow waters of the Ceram and Banda Seas. Knock on wood, that hasn't been the case.  Instead it's been the Allied subs who have hammered several capital ships.

[Canoerebel]

Taking some time this morning to look over the map to see what possibilities exist, likely vectors for future attack, and how troops stand on prep.  Doing so brought to mind some random thoughts:

1)  APAs and AKAs are golden.  These ships unload in one or at most two days and place troops on the beach in "pristine" condition.  Whereas xAPs may still be unloading some troops and gear four or five days into a landing, the APAs and AKAs are in and out of the beach and out of danger.  So guard 'em carefully.

2)   Replay Syndrome:  I've been bleeding political points recently, but due to the rapid pace of the game and some extraordinary needs at work since January I've been skipping watching most combat replays.  I've probably watched only 15 replays in the last seven months of game time.  Most of the 15 I've watched have been in the past two weeks of game time as the Lautem and Sorong invasions were developing.  I don't recommend this practice for obvious reasons - like missing reports of overdue aircraft withdrawals (I just checked and found I have about six squadrons late) - but it actually is a fun way to play fast.

3)  I thought briefly about loading up the troops at Boela to make a snap invasion of Ambon, but found that most are only 35%-40% prepped.  So that invasion will wait.

4)  The Morotai troops are 100% prepped, so that should be the next big invasion.

5)  Between now and Morotai, the Allies will probably take Biak (an Allied dot hex of New Guinea's northwest coast), Manikwari (lightly garrisoned), and one or two of the islands west of Timor.

6)  Once Sorong falls I think those troops will prep for Manado.

7)  Once Dili falls I think those troops will prep for Kendari (or perhaps some will prep for Ambon).

8)  By the end of the year I think the Allies will hold Morotai, Manado, and Ambon.  If so it should allow moves on northeastern Borneo or the southern Philippines in early '44.

9)  At the end of the game Miller is going to (accurately) say:  "Man, the eastern DEI islands were open.  I was scrambling like crazy to occupy and garrison them.  If you had moved a little faster you could have taken Sorong/Morotai/etc. with little or no opposition."  He's right - with recon I saw the opportunities and wanted to move fast, but due to lack of carriers any offensive moves could have/would have resulted in unacceptably high losses in combat ships and transports.  Transports, in particular, have been in short supply following the disastrous invasion of the Kuriles.  So, despite the opportunities, I decided I'd prefer to face stiffer opposition later but with well prepared and protected invasions than to make bold, quick, unprepared and under-protected invasions while enticing openings existed.

[witpqs]

I don't let them go past the due date, but I'm pretty sure that overdue groups show up either in the Ops Report or the Combat Events Report, or both. Even if you skip the replay you ought to check out the four reports (Ops, Combat Events, SigInt, Combat). A much easier way than in-game is just open them in NotePad from the save folder. They're much easier to read that way.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/43 to 10/21/43
 
Operation Fort Henry (invasion of Sorong):  This operation continues to go well:
 
1.  All transports have unloated and are returning to Darwin.  The transports fleet took essentially no damage during this operation and should be ready to re-load for the invasion of Morotai.
2.  Before departing Sorong, two Allied BB TFs made final bombardment runs on Sorong.  One of these remained in the hex, for some reason, and tangled with a Japanese CA/CL force on the 21st.  The Allies lost a DD with some CLs and DDs taking light damage; the two Japanese CAs took moderate damage (Kako took a torpedo and Aoba is afire) and at least one DD suffered heavy damage.
3.  Miller had perhaps 100 Frances bombers sortie against the Allied BB fleet that stayed at Sorong (against orders, as often happens on bombardment and fast transport missions in AE, as mentioned many times previously).  Miller is pulling his hair out because his Zero fighters once again failed to fly escort.  So his bombers got chewed on by a handful of P-47Ds and flak.  He lost perhaps 30-50 of them and scored only two hits against AMs (which also failed to leave the hex - part of an MSW force set to "retirement allowed" and to follow a transport TF that had long since left the hex).
4.  The first Allied deliberate attack almost made it to 2:1 and inflicted 3x casualties (1500 to 500).  The second came off at 1:2 and resulted in equal casualties (500 each).  Forts are two.  I think the Allies will take Sorong in a week or less.  If so the Allies will probably proceed with Operation Island Number Ten (invasion of Morotai) immediately.
5.  Allied capture of Sorong will be strategically significant because it exposes the the Peleliu/Saipan area to Allied invasion.  I don't know if I'll ever move that way, but Miller has to assume I can, so he'll have to reinforce and have ships/aircraft ready if those haven't already been done.
 
Operation Bull Run:  The Allies took Dili with the ragged Japanese defenders retreating down a yellow road/trail into the jungle.  Part of the Allied army will follow and try to boot them further into the jungle so that any future effort to move back toward Dili will be easily spotted.
 
Allied Ships:  Allied carriers, combat ships, and transports are in great shape despite back-to-back invasions.  BB Washington suffered light damage to a torpedo during the Lautem invasion.  CV Victorious is overdue for withdrawal.  I am inclined to use both for the Morotai invasion and to then send home (or withdraw) ships that need time in the yards.
 
Operation Island Number Ten:  This one is going to be the toughest of the three.  It's "out there" in Indian country, isn't close to any Allied air bases, and is close to several sizeable Japanese bases.  I am trying to close Ternate, and may succeed, but Manado will be untouched and is a level six base.  I think the Morotai garrison is a division and a few small support units, but if Miller has reinforced I'll reconsider the operation.  If not I will take my chances, because taking Morotai will blast a wide hole in the Japanese MLR and suddenly expose a wide area of "vitals" to the Allies.  Also, the Japanese have recently suffered setbacks (big attrition to carrier air and damage to a handful of powerful BBs) that should only improve with time.
 
Operation Harrodsburg:  While the Allies move on Morotai, a much smaller force will take the opportunity to invade Manikwari (east of Sorong).  The garrison is just under 5k troops, and the three UK/Aussie brigades can easily handle that.

[Canoerebel]

10/22/43 and 10/23/43

Operations Fort Donelson, Fort Henry, and Bull Run: These three sequential operations have drawn to a close with the Allies in possession of Boela, Lautem, Dili, and Sorong (the latter fell to an 11:1 attack on the 22nd; the "sudden" high odds suggests that Miller was evacuating his troops). These operations went smoothly, resulted in next to no troop or transport losses, and cost the Japanese dearly in carrier air and combat ships.

Operation Island Number Ten: I debated this operation much of yesterday and last night. It's a little out of LRCAP range from new Allied bases and is thus the riskiest operation. I considered postponing it to move on Ambon first, or postponing it to first orchestrate a mock move on Ambon to try to draw out Miller's carriers. I elected to proceed with a feint toward Ambon. The troops are loading at Darwin - about 1300 AV with about 250 AV in reserve at Sorong (but the latter will have low prep). Miller has reinforced this based and raised it from level zero airfield to level three in just a few weeks. Garrison is known to be an infantry division. If additional recon shows further strengthenning I may postpone.

Ambon: Most troops are 65% to 100% prepped, but 9th Aussie Division at Lautem is only 10% prepped. This invasion will take place sometime in November, and, at the same time, the Allies will invade the lightly garrisoned Namlea.

Kendari: By the end of the year, Kendari should be a tenuous base due to the increasing size of the Allied airfield at Lautem.

Manado/Ternate: Both are stoutly garrisoned with big airbases. The Allies will likely bypass Ternante but hit Manado. I expect D-Day in early 1944.

Early 1944: By early 1944 the Allies should be in a position to begin their next major vector of attack. Options: Peleliu and the Saipan group; southern Philippines; eastern Borneo; Java. My preference is a combination of southern PI and eastern Borneo. By mid-'44 the Allies should be isolating Java from the HI and threatening to take bases within B-29 range of the HI.

[Nemo121]

What's your strategic goal here? I can see that you're doing a sort of recon-pull advance here but is it all recon-pull or do you have an objective:
e.g. taking the southern phillipines after Menado or lunging east to the Marianas to begin working up that chain after Morotai ?

[Canoerebel]

The Allies have two objectives:  sever Japan from the SRA and obtain big airbases within decent range of the Home Islands.
 
My preferred route to accomplish this has been the same since very early in the game - from Darwin move north to Boela and Sorong (done), then west to Morotai/Manado/Talaud Island (next on the list), then west to NE Borneo (Tarakan/etc.) and the islands south of Mindanao (Taytay, Jolo, Puera Princessa etc.) 
 
I have had and continue to have a plan beyond that, but I won't mention it until later.  Suffice to say at some point the Allies must turn north to get within striking range of the HI.
 
The Allies will also move to consolidate this "corridor of advance" by picking up bases along the flanks (Ambon, Manikwari, Kendari, perhaps Davao or Cotabato, etc.).

[Grollub]

Nice piece of deception there, concerning your post and its lack of correlation with its header [:D]

[Canoerebel]

[:D]
 
(I don't even know how that title got chosen!)

[Grollub]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[:D]

(I don't even know how that title got chosen!)

(chuckle) [:D]

[Canoerebel]

I believe 1943 is the "year for attrition."  This is the period when the Allies need to whittle down Japanese power - aircraft, pilots, and ships - considerably.  As such, it doesn't really matter that much where the attrition zone is located (eastern DEI, Solomons, Marshalls, etc.) as long as there is lots of attritioning going on.  But when that period of attrition ends the Allies need to be in a position to advance steadily and relatively quickly to administer the cou-de-grace to Japan.
 
In our game the attrition period has been divided between the Kuriles (not very effecitvely due to some command failures) and in the eastern DEI (much more effectively).  As such the Allies are right on the doorstep of Japan's vitals, so I think the Allies are in pretty good shape strategically.

[Canoerebel]

A quick not to say that Operation Island Number Ten (invasion of Morotai) is underway.
 
During the next two-day turn, combat TFs, fleet carrier TFs, and a bunch of empty transports will proceed to a point three hexes SE of Ambon by way of Taberfane Island.  This is to give the appearance of a move on Ambon, which I think Miller is expecting.
 
The real transports and escort carrier TFs plus combat TFs and support TFs will take a more "inward" route that should position them just north of Taberfane on the 2nd day.
 
If all goes well, the carriers and advance combat ships will then reverse course, bypass Ceram's east end, and take position just NE of Ambon on days three and four.  Here they will deal with any Japanese air strikes while still under the umbrella of LRCAP from Boela.  The real transports will continue on toward Morotai.  D-Day should be five or six days away.