Against the Wind: Cuttlefish (Japan) vs. Q-Ball (Allies)

[Nemo121]

ComradeP,

Your counsel is the counsel of despair and ineptitude because it puts the locus of control externally. Once humans have an external locus of control they begin believing that since they can't control the outcome of events they are at the mercy of die rolls and that rapidly translates into sloppiness as they no longer take every pain to ensure that their plans are formulated to have maximum success. After all, why put in all that effort if the die rolls will determine whether you succeed or fail?

If you want real world examples for this just read about all the headaches US and other trainers have had with the Iraqi and Afghani armies in recent years. Those two nations ( and others ) had a deeply set belief that insh'allah god will take care of the details and that things will turn out as s/he/it wishes. That external locus of control led to individuals and units not tightening up their procedures etc in a manner which was often deeply dangerous. Go read the reports from the field and you'll find ample evidence of the effect of external locii of control in real life military situations.

Once you have an external locus of control you often stop trying to improve since your actions have minimal effect anyway and, IMO, anything which thus preaches of the external locus of control is the counsel of despair and ineptitude.

As to you being inept.... Not at all. I was quite precise in what I said. You imputed meaning to it which wasn't there. If I had intended to say you were inept I would have said something rather straight-forward along the lines of "You're inept". It wouldn't have required much interpretation at all. I have seen no examples of your play and so cannot form an opinion as to your ineptitude or brilliance. My point was that your advice here would, if followed, psychologically result in Cuttlefish passing up opportunities to analyse, learn and improve ( failure to do those things equals ineptitude in my book ).


As to misinterpreting your post... No, I understood what you were doing, explaining away Cuttlefish's run of bad results recently by calling on die rolls and other external events. I disagree most strongly since while any one event could be bad luck there are clear strategic issues here which were not optimised and which have led to the number of bases falling.

which in turn are based on random behind the scenes rolls the player can't always influence in a meaningful way?

Hmm, external locus of control + counsel of despair. I don't accept that there are situations in which one cannot influence in-game events in a meaningful way.

E.g. If the battle is going very much against you you can switch the terms of the battle or refuse the battle or create a strategic focus elsewhere etc.

Very often you see people posting on these fora complaining that x or y is broken and isn't amenable to the effects of their play. When you examine the situation closely you almost always find that they have deployed their forces sub-optimally and are merely reaping the results.


As to the surface combat TF... The mix of main gun calibres was sub-optimal as was the TF size. I think Cuttlefish would have found better "luck" as you put it by sending in two TFs, one centred on Yamato and another centred on the Kongo and Haruna + the CAs. Of course that wouldn't be the outcome of luck but merely the utilisation of knowledge gained from running hundreds of tests on the surface combat model in WiTP in order to determine the weight of various factors which feed into surface combat resolution. That's why I dislike the emphasis on "luck". With knowledge and thought you find that most of the things which are put down to "bad luck" end up actually being things which one DOES have control over its just that the player involved didn't have the knowledge base to realise that.

I will again refer to the statistical truth that whenever you keep rolling bad results and your opponent is rolling good ones, you won't be preventing anything.

Nonsense. Winning the aerial war or the naval war isn't required to hold the line in the DEI for now. What is required are a few, mutually supporting bases with large numbers of troops and increasing fortification values. Putting those troops on those bases isn't a matter of "luck" but planning. Since it is a matter of planning die rolls don't come into it. If I have 1500 AV on a base and I have Level 6 forts and jungle terrain on my side and the enemy lands with 500 AV I have no need for "luck" to hold that base. Simple.


I'm still convinced that the results of the majority of the last engagements heavily favoured the Allies in a disproportionate way considering the forces involved and the odds for both sides to win a specific battle.

True but irrelevant going forward. Cuttlefish has the option of putting it down to "luck" and an external locus of control or focusing on how he can use his current forces most effectively to reach his strategic goals. If he puts it down to "luck" as you suggest we'll see the rout continue, if he focuses on what he can do to change things then he'll have a much better chance of stopping the advance.

As to the "there are far too many bases to defend" argument... That shows an error in thinking. There are a lot of bases BUT one only needs to hold a small number of them in order to achieve one's strategic goals. Cuttlefish needs to strategically assess what he must hold and then put a plan in place to do so. If he does this calmly and coolly then he can stem the flow for a while while rebuilding his forces.



As to Cuttlefish and his play. He's a good player, that much is clear from reading any AAR he has written, especially the Hibiki AAR. I'm glad to see he has a rational view of the relative roles of luck and player decisions. If he assesses the situation and defends only what he must then he maximises his chances of holding irrespective of die rolls.

[ComradeP]

Your counsel is the counsel of despair and ineptitude because it puts the locus of control externally. Once humans have an external locus of control they begin believing that since they can't control the outcome of events they are at the mercy of die rolls and that rapidly translates into sloppiness as they no longer take every pain to ensure that their plans are formulated to have maximum success. After all, why put in all that effort if the die rolls will determine whether you succeed or fail?

You're still misinterpreting my post. Whilst I'm talking about how a certain number of recent events were influenced by luck in such a way that their results were disproportionate or in favour of the Allies, you're saying I'm putting the focus of the entire game on luck, whilst that is most certainly not what I'm doing.

You asked whether I, if things go well, say I got lucky rather than the results are due to skill. If I roll good rolls, I say I roll good rolls. If I roll 3's on a 6 sided dice and I can still advance, then the plan is solid. I find it really weird that some people would rather be lucky than good, as I'm wondering why they play wargames to begin with. What satisfaction can come from something you can't directly influence (die rolls) if that is the thing winning you the game?

As WitP:AE is a game, the results are not only influenced by the plan but also by various kinds of random number generators rolling certain results. Those results can often either not be influenced directly by the player, or can only be influenced to a certain extent. Better odds don't have to yield better results, and there's no scientific link between the amount of manpower/force used and the eventual result, which can still be as bad when you're using 100.000 men than when you're using 1000.

Once you have an external locus of control you often stop trying to improve since your actions have minimal effect anyway and, IMO, anything which thus preaches of the external locus of control is the counsel of despair and ineptitude.

The same can be said for success: victory disease is one of the most common causes for military failure, a historical example would be German victory disease at the start of Barbarossa, or Allied victory disease after the victory in Africa.

I'm not saying actions have minimal effect, and actually have no idea why you constantly state I said that. I'm saying that in a small number of encounters thus far, Cuttlefish's actions have had little effect.

Hmm, external locus of control + counsel of despair. I don't accept that there are situations in which one cannot influence in-game events in a meaningful way.

I already pointed out to you that, mathematically speaking, there are plenty of those situations: if you roll 1's and your opponent rolls 6's, see what you can do. Your theory implies that you can influence every situation in a wargame in a positive way. That is simply not the case. Things can, and will, go absolutely wrong from time to time in a way you can't fix. If you, again, insist that isn't the case, I will repeat my suggestion that you play a game where you artificially always roll the worst result possible and your opponent always rolls the best, you'll see that your overall strategy quickly goes out of the window due to the poor rolls.

You'll probably start claiming that I'm talking about how everything is a matter of luck, but I'm really hoping you finally see what my point is. The more evenly sides are matched, which in this case would be after the initial Japanese expansion (which favours the Japanese), up to the arrival of the avalanche of Allied equipment from late 1943 onwards (after which the strategic situation favours the Allies). The results can also become even more skewed because in the case of the War in the Pacific both sides, but especially the Japanese, losses actually hurt both on the short and the long term. The loss of a single carrier, not to many multiple, will have a significant on the course of the war. On the Eastern Front, the loss of a handful of divisions would not have posed a significant problem. If the Japanese or Allies lose 5 divisions in a way that they won't come back because their cadres are dead, they will feel the pain. That's why what looks like a minor engagement, such as a SCTF engaging another SCTF can actually be a very important affair.

E.g. If the battle is going very much against you you can switch the terms of the battle or refuse the battle or create a strategic focus elsewhere etc.

For starters, you can't always do that, as sometimes you have to fight. More on that later.

Very often you see people posting on these fora complaining that x or y is broken and isn't amenable to the effects of their play. When you examine the situation closely you almost always find that they have deployed their forces sub-optimally and are merely reaping the results.

...which is why I'm not talking about how something is broken. Discussions about how unbalanced certain pieces of equipment are will often be nonsense and/or futile and/or pointless. There are cases where equipment needs to be fine tuned, but most of the time the complaints are about an atypical result caused by poor strategy.

As to the surface combat TF... The mix of main gun calibres was sub-optimal as was the TF size. I think Cuttlefish would have found better "luck" as you put it by sending in two TFs, one centred on Yamato and another centred on the Kongo and Haruna + the CAs. Of course that wouldn't be the outcome of luck but merely the utilisation of knowledge gained from running hundreds of tests on the surface combat model in WiTP in order to determine the weight of various factors which feed into surface combat resolution. That's why I dislike the emphasis on "luck". With knowledge and thought you find that most of the things which are put down to "bad luck" end up actually being things which one DOES have control over its just that the player involved didn't have the knowledge base to realise that.

That is also why my emphasizes is not on "luck" for an entire game, but rather on what influenced certain actions and why the many variables turned into a result that would seem to be off. I think the raider TF was too big and is geared for a regular SCTF engagement rather than raiding. I'm not too sure whether two SCTF's would have created a better result: considering the poor showing of the combined TF, which had a firepower advantage, two smaller TF's without a firepower advantage doesn't seem to be likely to create better results.

Statistically speaking, placing 3 BB's with support against 1 BB with support will be more likely to damage the 1 BB TF than 1/2 BB's with less support against 1 BB with the same amount of support. Of course, you'd get more rolls which could compensate, but the result could be even worse than the current result, especially in the middle of the night. You'd also have the problem that, during the day phase, the two smaller SCTF's might run into something they can't handle whilst split up, whilst they could easily handle it as the big SCTF Cuttlefish created. I have the feeling that results would've been quite a bit more ugly for both sides during a daytime engagement.

Nonsense. Winning the aerial war or the naval war isn't required to hold the line in the DEI for now. What is required are a few, mutually supporting bases with large numbers of troops and increasing fortification values. Putting those troops on those bases isn't a matter of "luck" but planning. Since it is a matter of planning die rolls don't come into it. If I have 1500 AV on a base and I have Level 6 forts and jungle terrain on my side and the enemy lands with 500 AV I have no need for "luck" to hold that base. Simple.

For starters, the vast majority of the players did not really ponder the chances of being overrun through the Allies recapturing Timor in late 1942. Likewise, the AAR's up to the point where Q-Ball launched his attack did not show many signs of preparation for that eventuality. Why? Because it rarely happened before and the Allied advance mostly started in other areas. People act now as if Q-Ball's strategy was always the most obvious, but clearly most people thought otherwise until the strategy was revealed and turned out to be successful.

The problem with your suggestion, and the main reason why it's far from "simple" is that to the Japanese, bases have a very different strategic value than to the Allies. The Japanese don't have the means to turn dot bases into powerful ports/airfields in 1942 or even later on. The Allies can do that in 1942. If you, after having lost air and naval superiority, have 1500 AV in a base, behind level 6 forts (Cuttlefish already detailed that level 6 forts are a rarity due to how early it is in the game) in a jungle hex, and I would land with 500 AV, I would cancel the landing, find one of the many dot or regular bases that are around in the DEI, build that up and leave you with 3 divisions worth of starving AV in a base I really couldn't care less about because I have so many other options.

You would have no means of extracting those AV as you'd either have to move them out of the base (in which case, as you're describing a jungle environment, you'd have to bump me out of a jungle hex with poorly supplied troops) or transport them out by air or sea. The last options are not possible because you lost control of the skies and the sea. If you put 1500 AV in a single hex in the DEI as the Japanese without air or naval superiority, you're basically just creating a starving POW camp for yourself. That's why you need a good result or two: to keep a balance in the skies and to make sure the Allies don't rule the seas as early as February 1943. As I said: you name me a strategy, I'll find the holes in it. An advice to put 1500 AV in a single hex isn't really going to work for the Japanese, not anymore in any case. There are way too many ways to bypass bases in AE.

As to the "there are far too many bases to defend" argument... That shows an error in thinking. There are a lot of bases BUT one only needs to hold a small number of them in order to achieve one's strategic goals.

Which in turn shows an error in thinking by you: those small number of bases he's holding are probably mostly either irrelevant to the Allies or can be cut off and attacked when the garrison is starving. Q-Ball doesn't need any particular base in the DEI at this point. It would perhaps speed up or cause Japan's early defeat, but he doesn't need them for strategic reasons. For every base hex you're holding, he'll find a handful of dot bases you're not holding and build them up. I'd actually be happy as the Allies if the Japanese concentrate on, say, Java or Sumatra, as I could go island hopping in the central Pacific at my leisure (the majority of the credible Japanese forces being in the DEI) or strike through the central DEI into the Phillippines and beyond if needed. When you're talking about holding single bases with 1500 AV, you're really thinking in terms of vanilla WitP, not in terms of what's possible in AE.

-

Sorry for derailing your thread by the way Cuttlefish. You're right in that good and bad luck are mostly caused by hundreds of smaller factors and Q-Ball is certainly a good player, but I can't help but think that the latest results have been easy on him, as the majority of his gambles are working with minimal loss. I'm hoping your morale will recover to such an extent that, regardless of what the outcome might be, you'll enjoy the game. This is a great AAR, like Q-Ball's, and it would be a serious pity if the game would end prematurely in some way.

[princep01]

Gentlemen, an interesting discourse on the "luck" factor, but I believe we fall close to hijacking this wonderful AAR with these long missives. Both have made your respective points. Mr. Cuttlefish is much too nice the host to say anything, but could we allow him to carry on with his AAR now? Thank you both for your consideration.

[Nemo121]

ComradeP,

Well, you and I have different views. That's fine. I suggest we leave it at that and let Cuttlefish continue with the AAR.

[John 3rd]

Good exchange between you though...

CF---back to our regularly scheduled program!

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]The passive defense is always pernicious.[/font]
- Jomini: Precis de l’Art de la Guerre, 1838

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2/5/1943 – 2/9/1943

It has been a relatively quiet few days in the war, which is a good thing. My forces need a breather. Luganville is still in Japanese hands, though the forts have been dropped to zero there and it will probably fall soon. The defense there has given transports flying out of Lunga a chance to extract elements of important units, especially the aviation HQ and 48th Division (one third of which is at Luganville, the rest being at Noumea).

On 5 February the Musashi battle group raided Pago Pago, known to be a major Allied staging base. They snuck in from the east undetected but all they found there were two PT boats, one of which they sank and one of which escaped. The daring move thus came to naught though I think it did startle Q-Ball to find a force that powerful roaming around deep in his territory. My raiders have since returned unmolested to the Marshalls.

I have not seen any sign of Q-Ball’s carriers in a while now. I am accordingly pulling back my raiders until I know where they are. They could by now be on either side of Australia, probably preparing to support another invasion or else hoping to ambush my battleships.

Troop Movements: I have moved a division (the 35th) from China Java and placed them at Malang, a mountain base with several forts already. This will provide a formidable defensive bastion against any Allied landing at the east end of Java. I have also been moving large numbers of troops, mostly aviation support so far, to the Philippines. Infantry and aviation support is also en route to Lunga. When Luganville falls it will become the next line of defense in the region and I intend to see that it is strong enough to defeat anything except a very powerful invasion.

Target Evaluation: I still think Milne Bay is likely to be invaded soon. After looking over the map I think Sorong is also a strong candidate to face Q-Ball’s wrath. It is within handy distance of Ambon and would open a door that would give Q-Ball access to the western Pacific. Sorong has only a garrison battalion but it does offer some interesting possibilities for defense. I am moving surface forces into the area, out of enemy detection range but within striking distance of the base, in case he tries it.

Under the Sea: Q-Ball’s subs now mostly sink what they shoot at, which is bad. Sub attacks are still fairly infrequent, though, which is good. I have lots of fairly well-trained ASW pilots now, which I think helps to keep attacks down, and I am constantly shifting my convoy routes. He then moves his subs around seeking them, which makes for an interesting game of cat and mouse. I have lost a couple of tankers in the past week, which hurts. I really hate losing tankers, there are never enough of them and I am trying to haul every bit of fuel and oil out of the DEI that I can right now.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

[font="Arial"]The passive defense is always pernicious.[/font]
- Jomini: Precis de l’Art de la Guerre, 1838

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2/5/1943 – 2/9/1943

...I am trying to haul every bit of fuel and oil out of the DEI that I can right now.

Good idea of course. Don't forget your AK's can haul fuel/oil.

[erstad]

Good idea of course. Don't forget your AK's can haul fuel/oil.

Fuel - yes. Oil - No

[Xxzard]

Well that's OK for most of the combined oil+refinery bases then.

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]I learned quickly that altitude was paramount. Whoever had altitude dictated the terms of the battle, and if there was nothing a Zero pilot could do to change that we had him. The F4U could out-perform a Zero in every aspect except slow speed maneuverability and slow speed rate of climb. Therefore you avoided getting slow when combating a Zero. It took time but eventually we developed tactics and deployed them very effectively...[/font]
- Second Lieutenant Kenneth Walsh, Corsair ace (21 kills)

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2/10/1942 – 2/19/1942

The Corsair made its combat debut on 19 February, with a handful of them tangling with some Tojos flying CAP over a trio of CMs sent to mine the Lombok Strait. I had seen Corsairs appear on the Ops losses screen, so I had been expecting this. The big question for me was whether they would be the all-conquering “X-Wing” fighter of WITP or just a very good plane.

Their first combat was kind of lackluster. They scored no kills (the P-40Ks with them scored 2) and a couple of them were damaged. Most of them aborted from the fight with mechanical troubles. It will take more fights and larger numbers before a clearer picture of their abilities emerges. I’m still waiting to see Hellcats in action – not looking forward to that.

Three bombers were shot down and no ships were hit, by the way.

The Allies continue to march on. Luganville made a fight of it but fell after about a week, and Makassar and a couple of minor bases nearby fell easily to Allied assault. The Makassar operation was covered by a pair of carriers and they were attacked by Netties out of Soerabaja. None of the 120 Japanese fighters there flew escort but several Netties broke through anyway and one of them put a torpedo into Yorktown. The hit was confirmed and damage was serious enough to force the carrier to retire. Japanese planes also sank an xAK and as a bonus submarine S-45 was sunk off Soerabaja. I’ve now sunk nine or ten Allied subs in the first 14 months of the war. While I haven’t looked it up I think this is fairly close to the historical rate.

Creeping damage may slow the Allied offensive. Q-Ball has been pushing his forces hard and while I have not sunk many capital ships I have been damaging them here and there. The Allies will get to the point, of course, where they have enough ships to ignore such wear and tear but I’m not sure they are there yet. And if the effects of extended steaming on my warships is any indication then the Allied fleet may need some yard time even without my help. This could be wishful thinking on my part, of course.

Reinforcements: the Japanese perimeter is becoming stronger as it contracts. I’m moving another brigade out of China and sending it to Tarakan and both Manado and Lunga have lots of units rescued by plane from threatened bases. The units need time to build up to full strength but I am pleased with how fast this is occurring. I guess expanding my vehicle production by 50% was not a waste of time.

Target Evaluation: right now the southeast shoulder of Borneo (Balikpapan, Samarinda, etc.) is, I think, my biggest weak point. Q-Ball is good at spotting weak points so I should probably expect an attack here before long. I’m also still expecting an attack at Milne Bay, though that hasn’t materialized yet. And I still think Sorong would be a good target for Q-Ball, though I haven’t seen any indications of an attack developing there.

[crsutton]

The early model corsair comes with a service rating of three. A good plane but this will really hamper it. A 3 service rating for a fighter is a royal pain in the butt. He only get 30 of these a month until late 1943.

CF, how many tojos are you producing a month?

[Canoerebel]

From what I've seen in my PBEM (Scenario 2), Corsairs or middling at best.

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

The early model corsair comes with a service rating of three. A good plane but this will really hamper it. A 3 service rating for a fighter is a royal pain in the butt. He only get 30 of these a month until late 1943.

CF, how many tojos are you producing a month?

I am currently producing 32 Tojos per month.

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]Like the destroyer, the submarine has created its own type of officer and man – with language and traditions apart from the Service, and yet at heart unchangingly of the Service.[/font]
- Rudyard Kipling: The Fringes of the Fleet, 1915

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2/20/1943 – 2/22/1943

No fresh Allied assaults – yet – but there have been a couple of minor incidents that bring heart to a beleaguered Japan. Most important, submarine I-35 put two torpedoes into Hornet a few hexes from Port Hedland. The first caused “serious damage” and the second did the same and then touched off an ammo storage explosion. Fog of war or not, it seems likely Hornet will be out of action for some time. By my reckoning that’s three American CVs in the shop right now: Hornet, Yorktown, and Wasp, unless Wasp has already completed repairs.

Hot on the heels of the sinking of Allied sub S-45 came the sinking of S-46, depth charged in deep water off Legaspi and forced to surface, where it was sunk by the massed fire of the cargo TF it was trying to intercept. Sinking an Allied sub in deep water is a very rare event for me and it feels good to strike back against my underwater tormentors.

Q-Ball has been trying something new and different, rather by way of experiment. Over the last couple of turns he has sent twelve B-24s on aerial mining missions over Soerabaja. Altitude is reported at 16,000 feet. If the bombers are escorted my CAP will engage the escorts (five Corsairs were shot down last turn) but leave the bombers alone. Unescorted bombers have so far been intercepted but not shot at. In other words, the aerial combat screen comes up but then terminates without any combat. There are indeed Allied mines reported in the harbor.

Dry Dock: much of the Japanese fleet is scattered in various shipyards right now, undergoing either repairs or upgrades. Kaga and Akagi are the last carriers being worked on and they will be ready in a week or two. Junyo, Hiyo, and the four CVLs are ready to go, and most destroyers and cruisers will wrap up repairs and their 1/43 refits within the week. The only ships unavailable by the end of the month will be Kongo and one heavy cruiser, in dry dock repairing battle damage from the battle at Luganville.

Big Screen: I’ve loaded patch three and set the game’s resolution to match my wide screen monitor, 1680 x 1050. I love it. I have to lean forward to study some of the menus but it is worth it to be able to see so much of the map at once. Kudos the devs for making this development, long regarded as unlikely if not impossible, a reality.

[witp1951]

CF, how is your economy holding up?

[Menser]

'Q-Ball has been trying something new and different, rather by way of experiment. Over the last couple of turns he has sent twelve B-24s on aerial mining missions over Soerabaja. Altitude is reported at 16,000 feet. If the bombers are escorted my CAP will engage the escorts (five Corsairs were shot down last turn) but leave the bombers alone. Unescorted bombers have so far been intercepted but not shot at. In other words, the aerial combat screen comes up but then terminates without any combat. There are indeed Allied mines reported in the harbor.'

Interesting .... I thought aerial mining was a night mission only in the manual. Have to look that up again. They were very efective though in the real war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_mine

[aprezto]

CF - your subs are a god send

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]The mine issues no official communiques.[/font]
- Admiral William V. Pratt, USN, 1942

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2/22/1943 – 2/28/1943

February 1943 ended on a fairly quiet note. Most of the action consisted of Allied air raids. These have been aimed at three primary targets: Noumea, Milne Bay, and the Japanese units routed from Makassar. I am not contesting these attacks, saving my air force for more vital duties.

Allied battleships did pay a visit to Banjoewangi, the base at the eastern tip of Java, on 24 February, tossing some shells at the defenders. I don’t know if any Allied ships encountered the mine field I laid there a few turns back. Sometimes you can hear a mine explosion during the replay, but if it isn’t one of your ships getting hit you don’t know where it occurred or what got hit.

A pair of Japanese battleships and their escorts snuck up on Ambon the following turn, hoping to catch some shipping in the harbor there. What they ran into was the famous Ambon PT force. Three PT boats were sunk and the Japanese retired without further incident.

Under the Sea: Allied subs damaged a Japanese oiler near the Philippines. The oiler, en route to Singapore, has been diverted to Cam Ranh Bay and I think it will survive. Two Japanese sub chasers were not as lucky, both being sunk in the Formosa Strait. That was my fault, though: I had allowed their ASW task force to run out of fuel, leaving them as sitting ducks. Note to self: don’t do that any more.

A Japanese submarine sank Dutch oiler TAN 3 in the DEI. It was loaded with fuel and though it was a small ship I am always happy to interfere with Allied fuel supplies.

Industry Notes: Japanese industry is clicking along pretty well right now. I have almost 500K in HI reserve, though this will take the usual 20K hit at the start of the new month. The only commodity in short supply in the Home Islands is oil. I am not sure why this is. In my game against Erstad, which is seven months behind this game but where I have made essentially the same moves regarding Japanese industry, the Home Islands are bulging with oil. It may have something to do with the greater number of patches this game has gone through, I don’t know.

Engine supplies are good, airframe production seems to be at appropriate levels, and there is enough supply now to last out the entire war. Fuel reserves are adequate but there is only enough for a few months of operation if the spigot gets shut off. I am shipping a lot of fuel out of my collection point at Singapore right now, though, and every month I can keep that going will help enormously.

Here is the victory point screen for the end of February:

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Thats 5 divisions worth of pp you have here [X(]

[Capt. Harlock]

The only commodity in short supply in the Home Islands is oil. I am not sure why this is. In my game against Erstad, which is seven months behind this game but where I have made essentially the same moves regarding Japanese industry, the Home Islands are bulging with oil.

Is it possible the air zones that Q-Ball has established in the southern DEI have already started to interfere with the delivery of oil to the Home Islands? I would guess that's the major difference between this game and the one against Erstad.