Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

10/24/43 and 10/25/43
 
Quiet turns that were nonetheless disquieting.  I have the feeling that the invasion of Morotai is "a bridge too far," so I'm evaluating things on the fly:

1.  The most disturbing development is the "rabid" Japanese CAP encountered over Ternate the past few days.  I had the field shut down, but the Japanese have flooded the area with top-notch fighters.  Some bombers are getting through, but not enough and I no longer feel sure that I can keep the airfield closed.  This is a BIG red flag given its size and proximity to Morotai.

2.  Of the invasion objectives, Morotai is the most strongly garrisoned and the most distant from Allied airfields.  There is a decent chance the invading force can get bogged down in battle without the prospect of quick relief or reinforcement.

3.  The Allied carriers took station fairly close to Ambon and there's a chance Miller will pounce with everything he has tomorrow.  If there is a big air clash and the Allies come out on top, I may proceed with the invasion or Morotai.  The Allied carriers will move to the north side of Ceram tomorrow and receive heavy LRCAP from Boela.

4.  If I scrub the invasion, there is a level 1 (1)/0 (3) base adjacent to Morotai.  If Morotai is scrubbed, I will think over dropping off an infantry unit, base forces, and Sea Bees there with the objective of negatiing Morotai.

5.  The invasion of Manikwari will take place - it is lightly garrisoned.

6.  In another month the new airbases at Lautem and Sorong, both level two at the moment, should be up to four or five.  At that point the Allies will have a much stronger LRCAP presence over both Ambon and Morotai.

7.  If I scrub Morotai, I think the next objectives are Ambon/Namlea in a few weeks.  Those two along with Boela and Sorong will permit the Allies to shut down Ternate and Morotai.

8.  Last but not least:  I need to prep another division or equivalent for Morotai.

[Canoerebel]

10/26/43 and 10/27/43

A mammoth armada has sailed from Darwin, feinted toward Ambon in good order, and over the next two days will change course radically and make for Morotai...and yet I'm still very unsure whether I'll proceed with the invasion. As per my previous post, there are a number of things that have to "go right" or not "go wrong" in order for the Allies to proceed. I doubt real commanders had the luxury of canceling an invasion at such a late date.

DEI: Ternate airfield shows 65% closed with just a handful of aircraft present; Miller is using LRCAP to try to re-open the airfield. He's close to winning this battle and if he does so that's probably cause enough to scrub Morotai. I'm also interested in seeing whether the feint towards Ambon coaxes Miller to commit his carrier-air and LBA. If so we could have a big air/sea battle tomorrow. Emerging victorious from such a battle would really open the door to Morotai.

CenPac: Nauru Island is garrisoned, so no further Allied operations in this area.

SWPac: The troops assigned to the Milne Bay invasion should be in place in a few weeks. I will probably proceed, but there is a chance Milne could be canceled and the troops committed to the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

Just got the latest turn back and nothing bad happened.  No appearance by the KB, no massed waves of Japanese LBA (some Frances bombers were splashed).  An Allied DD TF and some carrier divebombers at long range roughed up a PB/E TF at Morotai.
 
Call it a hunch, but I surprised myself by ordering the invasion to proceed.  D-Day at Morotai is tomorrow.  I've configured things roughly the same as in the past - bombardment TF goes in followed by lots of transports, ASW, and MSW.  The carriers stand off two hexes.
 
Three little changes this time:
 
1.  I swapped two SBD-5 squdarons (Wasp and Saratoga) for F4F squadrons to bolster CAP.
2.  Hellcats are all set to 70% CAP; F4Fs and other fighters to 80%.
3.  3rd Marine 'chutes are to assault the vacant hex south of Morotai - it can be built nicely.

[Canoerebel]

D-Day has commenced and has gone exceedingly well:

1.  No appearance by the KB or Japanese LBA.
2.  A very effective pre-invasion naval bombardment (a fairly rare event).  I think this shut down the airfield.
3.  No mines/no shore guns/no damage to transports (a surprise).
4.  Troops come ashore in great shape although one TF carrying a RCT has lagged badly and needs another day or two to reach Morotai.
5.  Garrison consists of 36th Infantry Division, Yokosuka 7th SNLF, 26th Air Flotilla, and some engineers and base forces.  Defensive AV is around 550. 
6.  Allied AV should be around 1350 (once the lagging RCT arrives).  Allied strategic reserves is several units prepping at nearby Sorong.  This could be a tough battle, but Miller also has to weigh the need to evacuate cadres to prevent unit destruction.
7.  3rd Marine 'chutes took the vacant hex to the south - in and of itself an important achievement (but I've got to reinforce it because it's adjacent to Ternate and I assume Miller will send a unit or two through the jungle).
8.  The transports carrying troops for the Manikwari invasion are gathering near Sorong.  Once the carriers retire from Morotai they'll cover this operation (Mani is lightly garrisoned so I think it's a "quick in - quick out" deal).

Overall things look very good.  Some random comments about the future:
1.  SigInt revealed Japanese reinforcements heading for Ulithi. This is good as it indicates Miller is worried about the islands north of Sorong.  This should further strain the Japanese transport system.
2.  If the Allies succeed at Morotai a major "reorganization" period will ensue.  Most Allied troops in the DEI are now at the four bases invaded - Lautem, Boela, Sorong, and Morotai.  All but the Morotai troops are prepping for future targets, but I need to pick these units up and moved them back to the staging area (probably Darwin).
3.  I need to get CV Victorious to Sydney for withdrawal.
4.  At this point the only capital ship in need of yard work is BB Washington.  She has 11 FLT damage from a torpedo.  I hate to send her home too soon, but I think I will following this operation.
5.  How badly has Japanese LBA and carrier-based air been crippled for Miller not to intervene at Morotai (at least to this point?).

Still too early to be counting unhatched chickens, but at this point it seems that the decision to proceed at Morotai was the right one.

[anarchyintheuk]

His LBA and CBA has been hit hard but I'd think he's just getting more gun-shy than anything about committing them to combat again. Watching your carefully planned strikes go in uncoordinated and getting spanked isn't too good for your confidence.

As always, enjoying the aar.

[Canoerebel]

The strategic map below is a bit intimidating - it's late '43 and the Japanese Empire still looks expansive.

With the failure of the Kuriles campaign that at one time held such promise, the war will be won or lost in the DEI. The Allies are making headway, but the Japanese seem to be garrisoning bases faster than I can move. Once Morotai falls I'll know better if the Allies have punched through the "thick outer crust."

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The strategic map below is a bit intimidating - it's late '43 and the Japanese Empire still looks expansive.

With the failure of the Kuriles campaign that at one time held such promise, the war will be won or lost in the DEI. The Allies are making headway, but the Japanese seem to be garrisoning bases faster than I can move. Once Morotai falls I'll know better if the Allies have punched through the "thick outer crust."

Nice map which really helps us understand you strategic positions. His red outline looks like a big liver that you are about to cut in half.....[;)]

[Canoerebel]

11/1/43 and 11/2/43
 
A massive air-sea battle took place at Morotai with the Allies suffering very heavy losses to carriers.  The Japanese suffered light losses to carriers and probably fairly heavy losses to aircraft.  I need to go through the combat report and compile a list of ships damaged and sunk and air losses, but it's not going to be a pretty sight.  Here is a general overview of how the combat developed:
 
1.  Japanese CA/CL TF hit an Allied transport TF and then tangled with several big Allied combat TFs.  The Japanese were incredibly tenacious - the survivors kept coming and kept coming.  This pretty much resulted in the destruction of the Japanese CA/CL force with the Allies losing perhaps a dozen transports and suffering light/moderate damage to combat ships engaged.
 
2.  Over two days the Japanese air assault against Allied carriers, BBs and CAs was huge.  As usual, a few early raids seem to tucker out the CAP inordinantly so that later raids come in fairly unmolested.
 
3.  Allied counterstrikes were pretty week considering the numbers of planes involved.
 
4.  On the second day the carrier TFs of both sides ended up in the same hex, but none of them actually engaged in combat.
 
This really exacted a toll on the Allies.  I'm afraid to look at the overall damage.  The Morotai invasion force is still in good shape.  In WitP the egregeous losses to Japanese aircraft would be a killer, but in AE (at least Scenario Two) Miller seems to keep replacing losses and keeps coming.
 
Okay, to work on the totals.  Back in a bit.

[Canoerebel]

This is the record for the November 1, the first (and bloodiest) of the two-day turn. 
 
1.  Surface Combat One:  Massive exchange between big Japanese CA/CL force (8 CAs - Tone, Atago, Myoka, Hagura, Nachi, Ashigara, Mogami, Suzuya) and an Allied transport TF and BB TF.  Allies lose 1 DD, 1 xAP, 1 SC, 13 xAK and CA Vincennes badly damaged.  Japanese probably lose CA Atago, CA Suzuya, CL Agano, and a DD.
 
2.  Surface Combat Two:  Japanese and Allied CA/CL forces collide.  Two Japanese DDs badly damged.
 
3.  I-185 puts a TT into CV Constellation.
 
4.  65 Oscar face 300+ fighters on CAP.  13 Oscar downed; 5 CAP downed.
 
5.  16 IJA fighters face 280+ fighters on CAP.  IJA lose 4 aircraft, Allies 2 (but the CAP is getting fatigued).
 
6.  48 IJA aircraft (mostly Frances and Betty) face 230+ CAP - 27 are splashed (but the drop off in CAP numbers is precipitious).
 
7.  175 Zero, 140 Jill, 100 Judy, 10 Kate face 230+ CAP - At least 90 IJN aircraft are splashed (true number might be about 150) while the Allies lose about 15.  But the damage wrought is mighty - seven CVEs sunk or mortally damaged (Nassau, Corregidor, Santee, Breton, Altamaha, Copahee, Natoma Bay) plus CLAA Prince Robert and CL Danae.
 
8.  21 Zero, 111 Judy and Jill face 116 Hellcats and F4F - at least 67 IJN aircraft splashed to just three for the Allies; CV Wasp takes a TT and two bombs.
 
9.  83 Zero, 100 Kate, Judy and Jill face 135 fighters - at least 45 downed to just two Allied fighters - CLAA Reno takes two TT.
 
10.  First Allied strike of 69 fighters, 145 TBF, and 122 divebombers vs. 140 CAP - CVL Shoho 1 B, 1 TT; CVL Chiyoda 3 B 1 TT; CV Hiryu 1 B 1 TT; CV Soryu 2 B 1 TT.   Allies lose 75 aircraft.
 
11.  Second Allied strike of 33 Hellcats, 34 Helldiver, 53 TBF face 54 fighters - Hiryu takes 4 TT, Soryu takes another TT, and Shoho takes another TT (overall pretty bad shooting over these two strikes considering the numbers involved).
 
12.  There are then a series of small raids mainly by Japanese stragglers.  Most of these are easily dispatched, but BB Maryland does take a TT.
 
13.  First Afternoon raid of 154 Zero, 98 Jill and Judy vs. 93 CAP (36 IJN downed to 6 Allied) - CV Victorious 1 B 2 TT; CVL Independence 3 TT (sunk), BB Colorado 2 B 2 TT, CV Essex 2 B 1 kamikaze.
 
14.  169 Oscar and Zero and 13 Jill and Judy face just 13 Hellcats - CV Saratoga 1 TT; CV Wasp 3 TT (sunk).
 
15.  34 Hellcats and 53 strike aircraft vs. 105 CAP - not hits.
 
16.  18 Hellcats and 16 strike aircraft vs. 87 CAP - nada.
 
17.  136 Oscar and Zero and 16 Frances vs. 4 Hellcat - CVL Belleau Wood 1 TT; BB Maryland 4 TT; CV Saratoga 1 TT.
 
18.  9 Frances and 12 fighters vs. 18 CAP - BB California 3 TT; CV Bunker Hill 1 TT.
 
I'll tally the second day in a few minutes.  It didn't see nearly as much action, but all that occurred favored the Japanese.  This appears to be a fairly decisive Japanese victory.
 

[Q-Ball]

It's always hard to say until the smoke clears and stragglers are in port or sunk. Looks like round 1 went to the Empire though. Too bad, the opening surface combat you actually did OK.

The key is how many planes each can put up tommorow.

[Canoerebel]

11/2/43

1.  I-35 puts a TT into CA Vincennes.

2.  IJN CL/DD force faces huge Allied BB TF (Indiana, South Dakota, Royal Sovereign, Prince of Wales, 2 CA, 1 CL).  This is gonna be a joke, right?  Nope.  Indiana and Prince of Wales take a single TT apiece and a DD is heavily damaged.  Two IJN CL are damaged and 1 DD goes under.  Yikes, bad karma for this to turn out this way!

3.  Many small Japanese IJA/IJN strikes fail to score hits.

4.  92 Zero and 28 strike aircraft vs. 9 CAP - CV Constitution 1 B, 1 TT; CV Essex 1 B 1 TT.

5.  12 Lily face no CAP - CV Natoma Bay 2 B.

6.  Many more small strikes are warded off by CAP or flak.

6.  5 Frances, no CAP - CV Constellation 1 TT.

7.  60 IJN and IJA fighters and three strikes aircraft - CV Constitution 1 TT.

8.  50 IJN and IJA fighters and eight strike aircraft - CV Constitution 1 B; CV Essex 2 B.

9.  50 IJN and IJA fighters and thirteen strike aircaft - CV Constitution 1 B 2 TT (sunk); CV Essex 1 TT (sunk).

10.  A few more small strikes fail

Oof.  Decisive Japanese victory.

Allies Losses:  CV Essex, Constitution, Wasp sunk; CVL Independence sunk; at least seven CVE sunk; several more Allied carriers heavily damaged; one or two BB sunk. Heavy air losses.
Japanese Losses:  CV Hiryu sunk; CV Soryu, CVL Chiyoda and CVL Shoho badly damaged.  Very heavy air losses.

Morotai:  The battle didn't impact the Allied troops.  The Allies have 1350 AV ashore.  The Japanese have perhaps 500 AV.  Forts should be no more than three.  This base should fall, but it's not a lock yet.

What the Allies have left:  I think CV Victorious (due for withdrawal), CV Saratoga, CV Bunker Hill, and CV Constellation; a few CVLs; a few CVEs.  The fast BBs and the rest of the combat TFs are in good shape.

What the Japanese have left:  Most of the carrier fleet is intact; they took a bit of a hit to CAs (most of the remaining IJN BBs are repairing damage from previous engagements).

The combination of Scenario Two benefits to Japanese pilot quality, the ability of the Japanese to train up pilots pretty quickly, and the failure of CAP to handle multiple strikes makes it very hard for the Allies to advance.  At this point in the "real war" a massed Allied carrier group of this size probably would have won a battle like this one.  I lost it pretty badly.  By the time the Allies have carrier capability again the Japanese will have replaced and retrained pilots.  That's a grim forecast!

Edit: I'll edit to finalize the tally of sunk ships once I get access to the next turn file.

[Canoerebel]

It should also be pointed out that two-day turns factored in.  If we were playing one day turns, the Allies would have withdrawn to the cover provided by three nearby airbases.  Once you commit to action, though, your stuck.  I love two-day turns, but that's the downside.

[AcePylut]

It's amazing how the fortunes of an entire war can turn on a single day.

[Q-Ball]

No doubt, a 2-day turn cycle means lopsided CV battles, because one side will hang in and fight, when otherwise they would probably run. That certainly cost you 2 CVs in this case.

[Canoerebel]

[:(]
 
Tough game.
 
But man, what fun!
 
It's going to take me awhile to sort through how this impacts the balance of power, but at moment it seems like it will be awfully hard for the Allies to advance for awhile.
 
Not that I'm not gonna try - Operation Harrodsburg (the invasion of Manikwari) is still on.  The transports are in place and I think I can complete this before Miller adjusts - he's almost certainly focused on the carrier engagement at the moment.

[crsutton]

Ugh! I am playing scen two as well and this will only serve to make me uber cautious. Not necessarily a good thing. July of 42 and my opponent admits that he is producing 200 zeros, 200 oscars and 200 tojos a month. Not a good idea to play this scenario against a good Japanese player.

But, I have accepted that we might be playing until well into 1946 and am making adjustments accordingly. That might prove to be fun...

I got no problem with the extra production. My biggest gripe is the ease in which Japanese players can train up pilots. This has not been fixed from WITP and may be even worse. Time will tell.

[Canoerebel]

Scenario Two seems to be a bear.  It's late '43 and I face a long, slow advance now. I'm still pleased with Allied progress in the eastern DEI, but I was expecting it to continue, not slow down.

[Canoerebel]

I still haven't run the combat replay (it'll take about seventeen years to watch the surface combats and air strikes and that's no fun when you've taken a licking).  I'll do so tomorrow morning, but a few observations based upon a review of the turn file:
 
1.  It appears that my carriers reacted with horrible (as usual) consequences.  I had all carriers set to "do not react" with low aggression leaders.  All carriers were also set to follow a big combat TF.  If my carriers reacted against orders and got separated....well, DARN IT!  Why in the WORLD can't we get this react problem fixed?
 
2.  I've got damaged ships all over the place - from Morotai all the way to Babar.  I've had to scuttle CVE Natoma Bay and BB Maryland.  Quite a few other medium- to high damage capital ships have a long way to go in confined waters.  Will Miller commit his carriers to intercept (unlikely given the depleted status of his air and the proximity of big Allied air bases).  He may, however, commit small surface combat TFs (and of course his subs) to try to intercept at likely choke points.
 
3.  The Allied BB fleet is in good shape.  The three slow BBs got hit hard, but the fast BBs will be fine barring further encounters with hostiles.
 
4.  So the Allies should be able to outgun the Japanese in surface combat for some time to come, but the Japanese once again have carrier superiority.  So further invasions are going to be tough.
 
5.  As noted previously, the Allies will proceed with the Manikwari invasion as it's off to the side and probably won't be noticed soon enough to stop it.
 
6.  The next Allied target will be Ambon.  Since it's pretty close to Boela it should be feasible to handle it.  By the time I'm ready, Lautem airfield should be big enough to really hit Kendari hard, probably keeping it's air to a minimum.
 
7.  I'll probably also proceed with Milne Bay invasion since it's off where I think I can catch Miller by surprise.  A successful invasion closes the door to any raids on Townsville, which is important.
 
8.  Over the next month or two or three quite a few capital ships will be in yards.  During that interim the Allies hope to:  take Morotai, take Manikwari, invade Milne Bay, and invade Ambon.  I think those are doable, but nothing beyond that.

[Andy Mac]

Scen 2 is designed to be interesting for both sides into late 45/46 you have the strength to keep going which should be decisive. (if I made it too interesting sorry !!!)

Dont stop he who has the will to keep going probably wins that last battle.

Ultimately he hasnt stopped yuor attack

[skrewball]

Thanks for posting about this on the main forum page. Loved reading about your prep, the execution and ultimately the ambush!