Shattered Vow

[anarchyintheuk]

10. First Allied strike of 69 fighters, 145 TBF, and 122 divebombers vs. 140 CAP - CVL Shoho 1 B, 1 TT; CVL Chiyoda 3 B 1 TT; CV Hiryu 1 B 1 TT; CV Soryu 2 B 1 TT. Allies lose 75 aircraft.

Ouch. 11 for 267. Must have been penalties for <2-1 in escort v. cap.

[LoBaron]

Wow what a battle. I also have difficulties to make accurate predictions of my CV TF movements
because they react to enemy CV´s even with low threat tolerance.
&nbsp;
I´m still not sure if I like it or not. Its really annoying especially if you want them to protect antother
(group of) TF, on the other hand it forces you to use your CV´s only very carefully without adequate
early warning. If I had the choice I´d opt for&nbsp;the possibility&nbsp;to turn reaction off completely.
&nbsp;
At least your previous advances open the possibility of island hopping north wihtout strong CV support.
And you can attrit his oil capacity after building up the most forward bases.
&nbsp;
Your AAR is stunning a stunning read as always!

[wpurdom]

The way the mechanics of the strikes worked against you on the first day reminded me of Shattered Sword's description of what happened at Midway to the IJN. The process of shooting up the first waves and the continuous operations meant the CAP ran out of ammo and gas. And there was no way to keep up on getting the CAP back up to strength. (The book debunks the idea that the altitude difference between the TBs and the DBs played any role). I think that part of the dynamics work as they should.

But it's pretty amazing that after all the recent attrition of the IJN air, Miller has better naval bombers than you. I wonder if that's indicative of AE generally or an artifact of Scen 2?

Chickenboy's initial assessment after the Battle of Darwin seems prophetic:

The long-term effect on pilot pools or a/c airframes is totally unknown. He may have plenty of Jills and Judys in the pools and (less likely) plenty of reserve trained pilots for immediate (or near immediate) airgroup replacement. Within 3-4 months he should be made whole again, both with aircrews and airframes, regardless of pre-existing pools.

So the Battle of Darwin was July 14th, 3.5 monts later the IJN was back to its former superiority in aircrews, at least on the bombers. Something for Allied players to take note of.

[Canoerebel]

Sobering indeed.&nbsp; My opponent has suffered multiple disastrous naval strikes in the seven months since March 1943 - he lost hundreds in an attack at Adak Island, he lost more than 500 over Darwin, and he has had two&nbsp; raids in the DEI in the past two months that cost him at least 400 aircraft.&nbsp; Losses like that should have been difficult to replace.&nbsp; Air frames should be short, but pilot quality should be abysmal.&nbsp; Instead, I think Japanese pilots are still far better than Allied pilots.
&nbsp;
Now Miller has lost over 750 aircraft in one turn.&nbsp; You'd think that would be the coup-de-grace - that IJN air would never be the same again.&nbsp; But I bet in three months Miller has replaced all losses and his pilots are equal to or better than USN pilots.
&nbsp;
I don't think this is an artifact of Scenario Two (and Miller doesn't think so either, per his emails).&nbsp; I think this is AE.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the report for the one event that best summarizes Allied futility (or plain bad luck) over that two-day turn:
&nbsp;
Night Time Surface Combat, near Morotai at 81,102, Range 11,000 Yards
&nbsp;
Japanese Ships
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CL Nagara, Shell hits 5,&nbsp; on fire
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CL Natori, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CL Yura, Shell hits 8,&nbsp; on fire
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Akebono, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Sazanami, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Ushio, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Kisaragi, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Yayoi
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Fumizuki
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Tatsuyuke
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Uruyuke
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Suresushio
&nbsp;
Allied Ships
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BB South Dakota, Shell hits 4
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BB Indiana, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1,&nbsp; on fire
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,&nbsp; on fire
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BB Royal Sovereign
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CA Chester, Shell hits 2
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CA Shropshire, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CL Tromp, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD McCook
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Frankford
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Sampson
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Anderson, Shell hits 3,&nbsp; heavy fires
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD O'Brien
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Walke
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Morris
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Banckert, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DD Stronghold, Shell hits 1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DMS Dorsey
&nbsp;
How does a CL force do this to a BB/CA force that has a very good commander?

[Canoerebel]

Air losses for the two-day Battle of Morotai - I think the Allies lost over 550 aircraft; I think the Japanese lost over 800.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sobering indeed.  My opponent has suffered multiple disastrous naval strikes in the seven months since March 1943 - he lost hundreds in an attack at Adak Island, he lost more than 500 over Darwin, and he has had two  raids in the DEI in the past two months that cost him at least 400 aircraft.  Losses like that should have been difficult to replace.  Air frames should be short, but pilot quality should be abysmal.  Instead, I think Japanese pilots are still far better than Allied pilots.

Now Miller has lost over 750 aircraft in one turn. You'd think that would be the coup-de-grace - that IJN air would never be the same again. But I bet in three months Miller has replaced all losses and his pilots are equal to or better than USN pilots.

I don't think this is an artifact of Scenario Two (and Miller doesn't think so either, per his emails).  I think this is AE.

you can bet on that! How´s your training looking like? If you train too, you will have equally skilled pilots but more of them compared to the Japanese. If you don´t do training, he will have at least a 25 skill advantage over your pilots and that´s definetely a killer. You have to train your pilots too as the Allied, if you don´t, you´ll lose.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's the report for the one event that best summarizes Allied futility (or plain bad luck) over that two-day turn:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Morotai at 81,102, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
     CL Nagara, Shell hits 5,  on fire
     CL Natori, Shell hits 1
     CL Yura, Shell hits 8,  on fire
     DD Akebono, Shell hits 1
     DD Sazanami, Shell hits 1
     DD Ushio, Shell hits 1
     DD Kisaragi, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     DD Yayoi
     DD Fumizuki
     DD Tatsuyuke
     DD Uruyuke
     DD Suresushio

Allied Ships
     BB South Dakota, Shell hits 4
     BB Indiana, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
     BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
     BB Royal Sovereign
     CA Chester, Shell hits 2
     CA Shropshire, Shell hits 1
     CL Tromp, Shell hits 1
     DD McCook
     DD Frankford
     DD Sampson
     DD Anderson, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires
     DD O'Brien
     DD Walke
     DD Morris
     DD Banckert, Shell hits 1
     DD Stronghold, Shell hits 1
     DMS Dorsey

How does a CL force do this to a BB/CA force that has a very good commander?

without the rest of the info on this engagement you can´t say much about it. Could you include how the battle evolved please?

[Canoerebel]

Here's an excerpt from Miller's email:
&nbsp;
"Yes, both our carrier fleets reacted (I always set mine to 0 react as well), it just seems to be a glitch in the game going right back to UV days, and Matrix cant seem to get it fixed.[/align]&nbsp;[/align]"I like setting up those crappy light cruiser/dd TFs, they are very hard to hit by sea or air. Not going after you this turn as I had almost nothing left to put in the air! Perhaps my subs will get lucky (before they die)."[/align]&nbsp;[/align]WHY can't we dispense with react?&nbsp; People have gnashed their teeth over the react feature - which 98% of the time works to a player's detriment - since UV days.&nbsp; If the goal is to enhance chance and mayhem, fine, it works - but tell players that's the objective.&nbsp; If the goal is to give players some control over their carriers so that they'll react and pounce upon enemy TFs, it doesn't work, because players can't control it.[/align]

[Canoerebel]

Battle of the Morotai Sea - note the widely dispersed carrier location (due to the much-hated - at least by me - react feature).

[Q-Ball]

In 1942, I think it is a valid strategy for Japan to attrite Allied airpower. Read that carefully, because that is a reverse of commonly held logic. But it's true.

The Allies have a fixed number of aircraft replacements; between the P-40E and P-39 something like 60 a month, plus Wildcats. Call it about 100/mo of real fighters, at least until late 1942, when the Allies start to get other types (and the P-40K gives you 65/mo).

The Japanese, on the other hand, should be able to produce 150-200 Zero/Oscar throughout 1942 without any difficulty.

It is true there is a drop off in pilot quality from the original pilot cadre; that drop-off is greater for Japan than for the Allies. But after that one-time drop, pilot quality will be equal, if both players are training new pilots, which they should be. So, pilot quality does not figure into this equation; it's only about availability of airframes, and in this regard Japan wins.

1 for 1 fighter exchanges in 1942 don't favor the Allies. They favor the Japanese.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sobering indeed.  My opponent has suffered multiple disastrous naval strikes in the seven months since March 1943 - he lost hundreds in an attack at Adak Island, he lost more than 500 over Darwin, and he has had two  raids in the DEI in the past two months that cost him at least 400 aircraft.  Losses like that should have been difficult to replace.  Air frames should be short, but pilot quality should be abysmal.  Instead, I think Japanese pilots are still far better than Allied pilots.

Now Miller has lost over 750 aircraft in one turn.  You'd think that would be the coup-de-grace - that IJN air would never be the same again.  But I bet in three months Miller has replaced all losses and his pilots are equal to or better than USN pilots.

I don't think this is an artifact of Scenario Two (and Miller doesn't think so either, per his emails).  I think this is AE.

Difficult to tell if it is AE (or the AE mechanics).

From the AAR I one can read the following (if my math is correct):

In the morning phase of the first turn you had 300+ (70% or more) fighters on CAP and 102 fighters (30% or less) set to escort mission. Your opponent had 194 fighters (40%) on CAP and 279 fighters (60%) on escort mission (only counting carrier borne fighters here).

Both sides employed (roughly) the same numbers of carrier based bombers (371 Japanese, 354 Allied).

You can draw your own conclusions, but it seems that your own CAP settings killed you here (combined with some bad luck). Your bombers were unable to do enough damage to the Japanese carriers (not enough escorts) while the Japanese carrier bombers (which did not even perform really good) had enough escorts to score. Well, WITP tactic (counting on Uber-CAP) met AE (CAP not impregnable).

[Canoerebel]

True.&nbsp; I had most of my CAP set to 70% (some 80%).&nbsp; I also limited my strike aircraft to a range of 6 hexes to make sure they didn't fly off on a distant target.
&nbsp;
I bet&nbsp;alot of Miller's carrier CAP was LBA, while most of his carrier fighters were set to escort.
&nbsp;
I don't think I made the "wrong" decision here - I needed high CAP - higher even than I had, obviously.

[Canoerebel]

So, what's next?

Attack!

That's right. There should be a window of opportunity now. Miller's air force has been seriously depleted and the Allies still have more BBs and CAs. So there should be a brief window of opportunity before Miller can reorganize his carriers and replace losses.

So rather than withdrawing totally, the Allies will:

1. Proceed with Operation Harrodsburg (the invasion of Manikwari). D-Day is tomorrow or the following day (the ships were already near Sorong). Garrison is just 4k and the Allies have three regiment/brigades 75% prepped.

2. Prepare to reinforce Morotai, if necessary. The Allied invasion force will deliberate attack tomorrow. I have 1350 AV ashore. Defense is about 500 AV. I'll know shortly if I brought enough. If not, I'll try to send in the strategic reserve (troops prepped at nearby Sorong).

3. Proceed with the invasion of Ambon. The troops for this are at Lautem (9th Aussie Div.) and Boela (US Infantry Div plus another division equivalent). Empty transports are heading from Darwin to Lautem to pick up the Aussies. Empty transports retiring from Morotai will pick up the Boela troops. If things don't go awry, D-Day should be just six or eight days off.

I think these operations have a good chance of succeeding in the confusion and "pull back" mentality that follows a major operation. So I think it's a good plan.

The other big spectator sport will be to see how many of my carriers make it back to Darwin from Morotai and vicinity.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball



It is true there is a drop off in pilot quality from the original pilot cadre; that drop-off is greater for Japan than for the Allies. But after that one-time drop, pilot quality will be equal, if both players are training new pilots, which they should be. So, pilot quality does not figure into this equation; it's only about availability of airframes, and in this regard Japan wins.

there sure is a drop off in pilot quality for the Japanese if you think about the 80+ skilled pilots in the beginning but for the Allied it only goes up. You start with crappy crews around 45 to get better crews due to training within the coming months IMO.

[Galahad78]

After this big battle, are you considering to micro-manage pilot training in order to close the gap with the pilots Miller is surely training for the next 3 months? I know that this kind of management takes the fun out of the game for you, just wondering if you've given another thought to the matter.

[Canoerebel]

I'm doing the usual training.&nbsp; For example, an&nbsp;SBD-3 squadron arrives in SD with 35 experience pilots.&nbsp; I set this to train at 80%.&nbsp; Or a Kittyhawk III squadron arrives at Cloncurry with pilots at 35 (or whatever).&nbsp; Same thing.
&nbsp;
But that's the extent of my pilot training - that and trying to employ bombers against "easy" bases (like Port Moresby)&nbsp;to build some experience, but that doesn't seem to work very well.
&nbsp;
That's the only kind of pilot training I know.&nbsp; I don't even know how to access the "pilot training command" feature in the game - IE, I don't even know where the buttons are to do that.
&nbsp;
I am not interested in a level of pilot micromanagement that goes beyond what I am already doing.&nbsp; If my failure to do so puts me at a competitive disadvantage, I'll have to re-evaluate for future games (or forego the game).
&nbsp;
I LOVE the strategic aspect of AE.&nbsp; I LOVE the massive, intricate planning that goes into logistics and into planning offensives and defensives.
&nbsp;
I HATE pilot micromanagement.&nbsp; I know many/most players love it.&nbsp; I cannot fathom why.&nbsp; It is an abomination for a game of this kind.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's the report for the one event that best summarizes Allied futility (or plain bad luck) over that two-day turn:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Morotai at 81,102, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
     CL Nagara, Shell hits 5,  on fire
     CL Natori, Shell hits 1
     CL Yura, Shell hits 8,  on fire
     DD Akebono, Shell hits 1
     DD Sazanami, Shell hits 1
     DD Ushio, Shell hits 1
     DD Kisaragi, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     DD Yayoi
     DD Fumizuki
     DD Tatsuyuke
     DD Uruyuke
     DD Suresushio

Allied Ships
     BB South Dakota, Shell hits 4
     BB Indiana, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
     BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
     BB Royal Sovereign
     CA Chester, Shell hits 2
     CA Shropshire, Shell hits 1
     CL Tromp, Shell hits 1
     DD McCook
     DD Frankford
     DD Sampson
     DD Anderson, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires
     DD O'Brien
     DD Walke
     DD Morris
     DD Banckert, Shell hits 1
     DD Stronghold, Shell hits 1
     DMS Dorsey

How does a CL force do this to a BB/CA force that has a very good commander?

Quite frankly, your surface force was too large for a night surface fight. You most likely would have done much better without the BBs. I think it is pretty apparent that the game even more so that WITP can pull some nasty tricks on super large task forces. I am especially fond of the collisions.

It does not always happen but sometime too much is bad.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Battle of the Morotai Sea - note the widely dispersed carrier location (due to the much-hated - at least by me - react feature).

Canoerebel,

Did you and Miller have aggressive admirals? I wonder if I should switch to good but careful admirals.

I did not realize that you were playing scenario 2 as well. Unfortunately, the scenario notes really were incomplete as to the dramatic effect of playing this scenario. Ark, my opponent has admitted that he is producing 200 zeros, 200 oscars and 200 tojos in July of 1942. It is Japs on steroids and I am learing the hard way that this is no scenario to play against a decent opponent. I am thinking that the Allied player has to reexamine stragety and look to a 1946 endgame with this one.

[Canoerebel]

11/3/43 and 11/4/43
&nbsp;
Some good and some bad over these two days, but overall I'm very pleased.
&nbsp;
1.&nbsp; The first attack at Morotai came off at 3:1 and cost the Japanes 2.5 to 1 in casualities.&nbsp; The second came off at 1:1, dropped forts from two to one, and inflicted 2:1 casualties.&nbsp; Morotai will fall, which is great news.&nbsp; This will be a big base pointed at the Japanese vitals.&nbsp; Also, it means I don't have to proceed with the risky move to bring in reinforcements.
&nbsp;
2.&nbsp; The invasion of Manikwari is underway.&nbsp; The Japanese have two units showing about 130 AV.&nbsp; The Allies have about 280 AV ashore.&nbsp; Might be a tough battle, but I think the Allies will prevail.
&nbsp;
3.&nbsp; The withdrawal of damaged combat ships from the Morotai area commenced.&nbsp; Japanese raiders and aircraft picked off some cripples.&nbsp; I think I lost one of the badly damaged CVEs and it looks like BBs California and Colorado may be toast.&nbsp; CLAA Reno also got hammered.
&nbsp;
4.&nbsp; A Japanese CL/DD force tangled with an Allied CA/DD force with the Allies emerging victorious, but the IJN proceeded to savage one of the withdrawing transport TFs sinking a good 15 to 20 xAK, xAP, a DD, and a few other ships.
&nbsp;
5.&nbsp; The Allies have had two xAK/xAP TFs anhilitated during this operation.&nbsp; I'm not minimizing that, but the overall cost in transports to the Allies over four invasions (Boela, Lautem, Sorong, Morotai) has been light.
&nbsp;
6.&nbsp; CV Hiryu and CVL Chiyoda spotted at Ternate.&nbsp; Hiryu took something like 5 TT yesterday.&nbsp; If she doesn't go down...ouch for the Allies!&nbsp; The carrier losses were already lopsided, but if I didn't get at least one CV and one or two of the CVLs it's just terrible.
&nbsp;
7.&nbsp; The most important Allied capital ships that suffered moderate damage - including CV Victorious, CV Constellation, CV Saratoga, CVL Belleau Wood, and some others - didn't undergo attack.
&nbsp;
8.&nbsp; The upcoming invasion of Ambon remains "on."&nbsp; I don't think I've named this operation yet - call it Operation Fort Morris.