Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

Miller and I are done for the day - and expect to play several turns tomorrow - so I thought I'd continue my description of the "travels" taken by some units during the war:

1. 108th Indian Brigade - This unit began the war in Malaya. After Japanese troops cut off the 108th's retreat to Singapore, the unit was air transported to Sumatra and then evacuated to Trincomalee by ship. The unit then took part in the Invasion of Port Blair, which was aborted after Bettys from Rangoon savaged the combat escort. Returning to Madras, the unit then went to Hyderabad where it has since served garrison duty. Now the unit is prepping for Bangkok and will depart Hyderabad for the front as soon as 3rd Carabiners arrives from Karachi to assume garrison duty.

2. CA Astoria: Badly damaged during the successful Allied carrier raid on Soerabaja in early 1942, Astorie underwent extensive reparis at the shipyard at Capetown. She was then torpedoed just before reaching Colombo, where she spent additional months in the yards there. Upon repair, she eventually joined a mixed combat TF the moved to Australia. While serving in a combat TF escorting the transports during the invasion of Ambon, Astoria was badly damaged when she took two torpedoes from Frances bombers. She is currently in "hiding" at Boela until her damage is under control. She'll then make for Darwin and eventually Sydney.

3. BB Ramillies: Badly damaged by Bettys during the aforementioned aborted invasion of Port Blair, she took another TT from a sub while retiring toward Trincomalee. Much to my surprise the ship, which seemed to be mortally stricken, made it to Madras. She remained there for many months due to the sub threat. Finally, sometime in '43 she made the yards in Colombo where she underwent repair. In the autumn of '43 she reported for duty in Australia, leading a combat TF guarding the key port of Townsville against surface raiders. She then took part in the Battle of Morotai, serving in a combat TF that managed to avoid the terrific damage suffered by so much of the Allied fleet. Since then she has remained in port at Babo until recently departing for Sydney where she will be withdrawn on schedule.

4. 6th Marines: After reporting for duty this unit went to Pago Pago. The unit prepped for Tarawa, but ended up in the ships that made for Makin when the operation was modified on the fly. Part of the unit remains at Makin. The balance of the unit was transported to Sydney, boarded the railroad for the trip to Alice Springs, and marched to Darwin. The unit then took part in the invasion of Sorong. Then part of that contingent took part in the reinforcement landings at Manikwari which succeeded in taking the base. At the moment, elements of 6th Marines are at Makin, Mankwari (New Guinea), and Boela (Ceram). The main contingent is prepping for Manado.

[wpurdom]

Assuming he can retreat now, if you can shock attack him and defeat him now, he will take big losses. If you can effectively bomb him and keep him from bombing you, you can go faster using "move" and some of his units will revert to combat going slower (this is without consideration of whether and how many units you can use in reserve/pursuit and still keep a margin of victory), so you may be able to defeat him again and again in different hexes. At some point he may even become weak enough to defeat with armor alone. It's by no means clear that he can get away with any effective force yet.

Of course, you will have to win in Pegu, shock attack across a river, then win a fight in the jungle for this to work.

[Canoerebel]

12/09/43 and 12/10/43
 
The unexpected continues to happen at Pegu.  I was 100% positive Miller was evacuating his army from Pegu, so I ordered a shock attack.  The results were rather dismaying at first glance:
 
Ground combat at Pegu (55,53)
 
Allied Shock attack
 
Attacking force 50467 troops, 577 guns, 379 vehicles, Assault Value = 2844 
Defending force 40841 troops, 536 guns, 421 vehicles, Assault Value = 848
Allied adjusted assault: 597  
Japanese adjusted defense: 615
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1250 casualties reported
         Squads: 63 destroyed, 78 disabled
         Non Combat: 84 destroyed, 335 disabled
         Engineers: 3 destroyed, 52 disabled
      Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 53 (4 destroyed, 49 disabled) 
 
Allied ground losses:
      6314 casualties reported
         Squads: 40 destroyed, 381 disabled
         Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 357 disabled
         Engineers: 11 destroyed, 33 disabled
      Guns lost 3 (0 destroyed, 3 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)
 
It appears that the Japanese weren't on the march as there was no negative modifier for "mode."  I suppose it's possible Miller could have them set to "combat" and march, but that would be a surprise. 
 
Upon further look the results don't seem that bad - Miller actually incurred more squads destroyed.  The Allies had alot more disrupted.  It will take the Allies a few turns to recover that disruption, but I may neverthless try a deliberate attack as soon as fatique and disruption are within acceptable levels.
 
Allied air did strike the Japanese effectively.
 
DEI:  I'm about to devote my time to the next turn and have to decide whether to proceed with the quick and relatively unprotected invasion of lightly garrisoned Talaud Island.  My troops are loaded aboard xAPs and xAKs, which take forever to unload.  I'm trying to weigh whether the ships, utilizing two-day turns, can get enough troops ashore to wrest the island from 2k defenders and then adequately defend the island. Or should I postpone the invasion and load the troops on APA and LST, but in the meantime risk that it will be reinforced?  Decisions, decisions. 

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's a closeup with hexside control on:

It looks red, but even if is green, he only needs to move one small unit in from the neighboring hex and the hexside will be red and he can then march out. Unless you wipe him out before any unit can move back in.

Anyhoooo.... I would rather be in you shoes.

Oh, I see I am a little slow and events have passed me by. Just push him hard as you can. Bomb him heavily preceeding any attack. Just keep grinding. At this point all the grinding works in your favor. You are at a point in the game where you are going to start to hurt the flow of oil to the HI. Anywhere you grind is going to cause him losses that will take supply to replace and eventually this will tell on his economy.

If I am not mistaken, one of the patces reduced the amount of supply that can flow from Thailand into Burma. I suspect that if you keep pounding, he will suffer supply problems as well.

[Panther Bait]

With his retreat path open again, he probably set them to combat to reduce losses, figuring he'd either eventually march from the hex in a combat move or get retreated out.
 
Mike
 

[Canoerebel]

12/11/43 and 12/12/43
 
Pegu:  The Allied army at Pegu is in good shape despite that shock attack.  The army totals 2800 AV facing an tired, beleaugured IJA army of about 900 AV.  Except for two units the Allies will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  The two non-participating units are armor that will head north across the river, then back south into a hex across the river from Pegu and currently occupied by a small IJA unit.  I'm still trying to isolate the Japanese army, though I doubt I'll succeed.
 
Talaud Island:  I went back and forth, back and forth, and ultimately decided to postpone this invasion.  The transports will return to Boela, unload, and then the troops will re-embark on a better class of transport.  In addition, another Aussie brigade 100% prepped for Talaud will board good transports at Saumlaki and join the invasion - bringing the total AV to about 240.  The Japanese garrision is one unit of 2,000 troops unless Miller reinforces.
 
Elsewhere in the DEI:  Shuttling of troops continues - these missions are important and always under the risk of attack by the enemy.  A sizeable TF carrying base forces and engineers will arrive at Ambon day after tomorrow.  Much smaller and less juicy TFs have been shuttling troops between Darwin and the islands of Maumere and Lomblen.  Other transports are heading to Manikwari to retrieve 6th Marines, which is prepping for Manado.  A new U.S. infantry division just arrived at Darwin - it is 35% prepped for Ternate.  I believe the Allies will move on Namlea this month and Ternate in January '44.  The move on Manado will take place thereafter.  If the Allies are successful in taking Talaud Island that will improve security for the Ternate and Manado operations and probably move up timetables.
 
Carriers: The three damaged CVs (Bunker Hill, Saratoga, and Constellation) are nearing Christmas Island on the way to San Fran and Alameda.  CV Intrepid and two CVLs are parked at Balboa and won't move into hostile waters until the other three are ready to return to battle.  The Allies have some eight CVEs and two CVLs at Darwin, with a third CVL in the yards at Sydney.  These could possibly be employed within the umbrella of strong land-based CAP, but only under very limited circumstances.

[LoBaron]

I really like those travel descriptions Canorebel!
 
Keep em coming. [:)]

[anarchyintheuk]

Ditto, LoBaron.

Quick question, you're about a year ahead of me in gametime and I'm still having problems with getting enough av support up to the front. Does it get better or worse?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk
Quick question, you're about a year ahead of me in gametime and I'm still having problems with getting enough av support up to the front. Does it get better or worse?

No this hasn't been a problem. I decided on the DEI course of action well over a year ago game time, so for more than a year I've been steadily transporting base force units from the West Coast and India to Sydney. Then they take the train to Alice Springs. Then they march to Darwin.

I've had these pipelines established so long that I currently have something like 1500 base force at Darwin (and adjacent Fenton and Katherine) and probably well over a thousand more distributed among the bases offshore - there are alot of those bases now.

The only choke point is the speed with which I can take bases and then build the airfields big enough to handle the base forces and aircaft I want to place there.

[Canoerebel]

12/13/43 and 12/14/43
 
Pegu:  The Japanese escaped the snare.  Even though the Allies attack again - this time at 1:1 odds that resulted in fairly even casualties - the Japanese army managed to cross the river and leave the hex.  Drat it!  (But kudos to the developers for a game that would allow such a complex yet plausible, though frustrating for the Allies, scenario to occur.  The new hexside-determined movement rules are a HUGE improvement over WitP.)  Allied LBA continues to rough up the IJA - one attack inflicted more than 500 casualties.  Another Japanese transport convoy arrived at Moulmein, this one accompanied by a stout CA/CL force.   Apparently Miller is short on supply and scrambling like anything to stanch the flow of blood here. The Allied army will advance across the river and then across the next river and try to take Moulmein.  The Japanese will have a massive but beat up army there...and that army will be undergoing steady attacks from massed Allied air based at Rangoon, Bassien, and Prome.  This is a fluid and important campaign.  (And, by the way, the Allied maneuvers that resulted in the fall of Rangoon should not be overlooked).
 
DEI:  I'm glad I cancelled the Talaud invasion.  A PT TF sent there from Morotai encountered a large Japanese DD force and came out on the short end.  Another IJN DD TF hit an Allied DD TF at Morotai (reconfirming earlier suspicions that the IJN is desperately short of cruisers).  The battle was inconclusive and not particulary violent.  The Allies are moving more fighters forward to Morotai and adjacent Lobolato.  The Talaud transports have retired to Boela where the troops will debark and then board better, more efficient transports.  Unless Miller reinforces Talaud I intend to proceed with the invasion whatever the risk to the Allied ships involved - taking Talaud island will really hamper Japanese activity in the area and make future Allied moves on Ternate and Manado easier.  Finally, the transports carrying base forces and engineers to Ambon have unloaded.  This level four field can now manage 125 aircraft.
 
Damaged Capital Ships:  The big carrier/BB TF arrived at Christmas Island.  BB Indiana's damage has increased a bit, so I am diverting her with to DD escorts to Pearl Harbor.  The rest of the TF will proceed to SF/Alameda.

[Canoerebel]

A couple of quick points as I've just seen the combat report for the next turn:

1.  CA Aoba, CA Tone, and three CLs are at Moulmein.  Miller had to send them because BC Repulse had roughed up a transport TF there a week ago.  Two weeks ago these cruisers were part of the KB TFs at Babeldaob.  That probably means Miller didn't have cruisers closer to Moulmein than Paulau (yikes!).  Yet another indication that he really is short of cruisers. This is pure speculation, but I wonder if Miller was in the process of moving KB from Palau to Soerabaja via the South China Sea to spring a surprise attack on Allied shipping around Timor. Just a hunch.

2.  It is possible that the desperate situation in Burma has forced Miller to strip forces from SWPac - not only the cruisers, but the several hundred aircraft now based at Moulmein.  I'm sure he has a stout force (including carriers?) to defend SWPac, but not as stout as it might have been.  All the more reason to proceed with the Talaud invasion now (and I'm also going to proceed with the Namlea invasion, this to occur within ten days).

3.  I made a mistake at Pegu.  I ordered my troops to march in "combat" mode, but forgot to order the armored units to follow.  So an armored unit moved much faster and crossed the river solo and got treated badly. 

4. For the first time since the beginning of the war the points spread dropped below 10k. Japanese 42,534; Allied 32,952. The spread had grown to 14k just a month ago after the big Battle of Morotia. But Rangoon's change of hands alone resulted in a 2,400-point reduction in the spread.

[Canoerebel]

More "travel" information about select Allied units:
 
1.  BB Warpsite:  After beginning the war in the Seattle shipyard, Warspite finally moved to the South Pacific where she took two torpedoes from a sub on March 22, 1942.  She retired to San Francisco for repair.  She then joined in the massive Allied invasions of the Kuriles and was sunk there by enemy naval aircraft in early March 1943.
 
2.  CA Indianapolis:  On December 11, 1941, CA Indianapolis was cruising near Palmyra when she took two TTs from I-20 and went under.
 
3.  CV Saratoga:  This workhorse of the American Navy is the only surviving fleet carrier of the six that participated in the first year of the war.  At the beginning of the war she departed San Diego in the company of CV Yorktown to escort transports carrying 41st Division to Noumea.  Sara and York then rendezvoued with Lex and Ent south of Australia.  These four joined with CVL Hermes in the big carrier attack on the KB at Soerabaja and Semereng (a decisive defeat of the Japanese that had to be replayed due to a bug, with the second results far more balanced).  Hornet went down in this attack.  Afer CV Wasp arrived, all remaining fleet carriers participated in the bloody and successful (though at high cost) invasion of Luganville in June 1942.  Entererprise and Lexington went down here, leaving just Saratoga and Wasp to patrol the oceans.  Both remained in or close to Auckland for more than a year.  Joined by Essex, Bunker Hill, Constellation, Constitution, several CVLs, and about a dozen CVEs, the American carrier forces reported to Darwin in the late summer of '43.  This force inflicted a beating on Japanese BBs in the Ceram Sea (sinking Hyuga and Ise and badly damaging Mutsu, Nagato and Yamato).  They also took part in two carrier strike aircraft raids on Ternate.  In the Battle of Morotai in October 1943 - a successful Allied invasion - the American carrier forces were savaged with Essex, Wasp, Constitution, a CVL, seven CVE, and CV Victorious going under.  Saratoga suffered light/moderate damage and is currently between Christmas Island and the West Coast on the way to the yards. 

[wpurdom]

The shock attack assault was disappointing. With a 3.5 - 1 AV ration, attacking in a hex that is not good for defense, you barely slipped under 1-1 despite no negative factors, one positive factor and him having 2 negative factors. The results would have been a lot better at 1-1, and I don't see why a good die roll wouldn't have been 2-1, particularly in view of the results of the deliberate attack with 2 units out of the line and a disrupted, fatgued force the next turn.

It was Miller's turn for good luck though. It should be harder to win across the river than it was in Pegu, but the unexpected ever happens in this game.

[Grotius]

Wow, your "travel reports" are fun to read, Canoerebel. (Actually, this whole AAR is fun to read.) Are you just keeping track by memory, or are you poring over WITP Tracker or something?

[Canoerebel]

Most of this is done from memory, though some specifics are found in my notes (like the ID of the sub that hit Indianapolis and the number of TTs taken by Warspite).  I haven't installed or used Tracker or anything else yet. 

[Canoerebel]

12/15/43 and 12/16/43
 
Burma:  The bulk of the fleeing Japanese army crossed the river and made it to Rangoon, thought a rear guard unit was beaten up by the Allies crossing the other river.  After the rest of that Allied army crosses the river the units will then cross the other river to make a coordinate assault on Moulmein. Got that?

China:  The Chinese units are beginning to advance to their respective staging points for the drives on Nanning, Liuchow, Hengchow, and Sian.  It may be a month before these operations are ready to get underway.

DEI:  The Talaud Island invasion transports will rendezvous at Morotai over the next two days.  D-Day for this invasion should take place in three or four days.  This will be Operation Fort Sanders.  The Namlea ships haven't left Darwin yet, but I've ordered them to cease loading supplies and to get under way.  D-Day for this invasion should be about five or six days away. This will be operation Cumberland Gap.  I've had a lot of shipping moving in this area hoping to camauflage the fact that the Talaud invasion armada is moving north from Boela, but the odds of achieving surprise are fairly slight.  If the KB is absent the operation probably succeeds.  If the KB is present...I dunno.  But Talaud is worth the effort.

Retrieving Forward Units:  A large transport convoy will arrive at Milne Bay tomorrow to begin loading troops to be transferred to the DEI for future operations.  The same sort of thing is going on at Ambon.  Most of the troops being retrieved from these forward bases are prepping for Ternate and Manado.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Burma:  The bulk of the fleeing Japanese army crossed the river and made it to Rangoon, thought a rear guard unit was beaten up by the Allies crossing the other river.  After the rest of that Allied army crosses the river the units will then cross the other river to make a coordinate assault on Moulmein. Got that?

No.

3. CV Saratoga: This workhorse of the American Navy is the only surviving fleet carrier of the six that participated in the first year of the war. At the beginning of the war she departed San Diego in the company of CV Yorktown to escort transports carrying 41st Division to Noumea. Sara and York then rendezvoued with Lex and Ent south of Australia. These four joined with CVL Hermes in the big carrier attack on the KB at Soerabaja and Semereng (a decisive defeat of the Japanese that had to be replayed due to a bug, with the second results far more balanced). Hornet went down in this attack. Afer CV Wasp arrived, all remaining fleet carriers participated in the bloody and successful (though at high cost) invasion of Luganville in June 1942. Entererprise and Lexington went down here, leaving just Saratoga and Wasp to patrol the oceans. Both remained in or close to Auckland for more than a year. Joined by Essex, Bunker Hill, Constellation, Constitution, several CVLs, and about a dozen CVEs, the American carrier forces reported to Darwin in the late summer of '43. This force inflicted a beating on Japanese BBs in the Ceram Sea (sinking Hyuga and Ise and badly damaging Mutsu, Nagato and Yamato). They also took part in two carrier strike aircraft raids on Ternate. In the Battle of Morotai in October 1943 - a successful Allied invasion - the American carrier forces were savaged with Essex, Wasp, Constitution, a CVL, seven CVE, and CV Victorious going under. Saratoga suffered light/moderate damage and is currently between Christmas Island and the West Coast on the way to the yards

I almost forgot you had to replay the CV battle. That for sure was one of the tougher moments to overcome in your game.

[Canoerebel]

12/17/43 to 12/20/43
 
Not the best four-day span for the Allies, but interesting:
 
Ouch, Ouch!:  The game, Miller, and I did things that combined to create a magnficient, unlikely, unlucky, sharp, and somewhat frustrating navy battle at Morotai.  My Talaud invasion ships left Boela and were to rendezvous at Morotai - the staging point for the invasion of nearby Talaud Island - for one turn.  While there the ships would be protected by a good CA/CL TF, a DD TF, three or four PT TFs, mines, and three good fighter squadrons.  My ships arrived on day two as did a large Japanese combat TF of 20 DDs.  This TF clashed with the CA Baltimore TF, which seemed to get the better of the IJN.  But the Japanese ships kept coming, successively facing the DD TF (which also performed fairly well), the PT TFs (which did nothing), and then a succession of transport TFs.  Ouch!  I lost 2 DD, 1 DE, 1 SC, 3 APA (OUCH!), 1 AK, 1 LSD, 1 LST, and 3 LCI.  The Japanese had three or four DDs mauled, but I don't know if any will go under.
 
This was a sharp and unlikely yet plausible result that really stings.  I don't fault myself as it was really purely a matter of unlucky timing and I believe the protecting Allied combat TFs were sufficient for the job.  But you may recall the Allies had similar experiences during the Battle of Morotai in which Allied combat TFs substantially more powerful than IJN combat TFs got beaten up nevertheless.
 
Anyhow, I'm cancelling the invasion of Talaud Island.   Most of the ships will retire to Boela to unload so that I can gauge what I want to do next.  The damage to the fleet, while noted and lamented, actually was less than it might have been, but I don't want any more of these to take place.
 
The one good thing to come from this is that one of my damaged ships ended up in green dot hex adjacent to Morotai and Lobolata - it can be built to level 4 port and 7 airfield, so I'm going to land some engineers there and build the field to assist with the upcoming operations against Ternate, Manado, and, if things ever go right, Talaud Island.
 
On the two days following the naval clash many Japanese fighters came in against ships at Morotai, but bombers either turned back or didn't follow. Miller is chewing nails over this.  I understand his frustration as it is very similar to what I faced in Burma back in '42. That had me chewing nails at the time too.
 
Invasion of Namlea:  D-Day was December 20 and the troops are coming ashore in good shape.  Recon showed a garrison of just 4k troops, so I only sent in one of two combat units.  It turns out that the garrison is an infantry regiment, so I may have to commit the other unit now.  I'll try a probing attack first, though, as the defenders may be a cadre or low on supply.  No sign of IJN ships and just a few aircraft sortied which were readily handled by LRCAP and squadrons from four CVE.
 
Burma:  An Allied army 2500 AV strong is on the march to Moulmein.  I really don't know if they have a shot, but the opportunity will never be better as the defenders have been harried and beaten up and will only get stronger as time passes.  The river crossing should take place in four or five days I suppose.
 
 

[John 3rd]

How many troops did you lose on those ships?

[Canoerebel]

I've just issued orders for the next two-day turn and there are a few items of interest:
 
1.  Miller continues to reinforce his bases in the northeastern DEI so that the going will be very tough - Kendari, Ternate, and Manado have 40k troops.  Other bases - Dongala for instance - have big airfields.  He's even landed more troops at Talaud Island.
 
2.  The Allies have taken a few bases on Flores and vicinity over the past month.  These have been vacant.  Additional vacant bases lie to the west (Waingapo, etc.).  Tomorrow the Allies will recon Salajar, an island base with big potential just south of Kendari.  If it is still vacant the Allies will then take it by para assault with reinforcement by sea to follow shortly.
 
3.  Over the next few days I need to evaluate my options.  The Allies have a tremendous army about 50% prepped for Ternate, a big army prepping for Manado, and the beginnings of an army prepping for Kendari.  I need to decide whether it seems best to stick with the original plan, or change vectors and advance toward Soerabaja, with Kendari, Makassar, and the smaller islands just east of Soerabaja becoming the main objectives.  I have a hard time believeing that Miller would leave this region underprotected, but I want to sniff about a bit to see. There is a chance he has been so concerned about the Allied moves to the north that he has been forced to give the west and southwest less attention.  The recon at Salajar and more intensive recon of the island chain between Soerabaja and Allied held Maumere over the next few days will help me evaluate that possibility.
 
4.  With the size of the army prepping for Ternate it might be worth proceeding there since the Allies will have two airbases adjacnet thereto (Lobolata - size 2 - and Morotai - size 5) and two others within supporting distance (Ambon - size 4 and Namlea [assuming it's taken in the next two weeks] - size 2 or 3).  Crushing another big garrison would hurt the Japanese.  Once Ternate fell the Allies would have so many interlocking bases in the Moluccas that the Celebes (especially Manado) would make sense as the next target.