Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
How many troops did you lose on those ships?

I lost elements of two Australian brigades and support troops. I should be able to replace the losses and rebuild each of the units fairly quickly.

[Canoerebel]

12/21/43 to 12/26/43
 
The full-court press by the Allies continues, and the Japanese continue to strike and sting:

Burma:  On the day after Christmas, the Allied army of some 2600 AV crossed the river and assaulted the Japanese army at Moulmein.  As expected, losses were high.  But I believe the army is in good shape to besiege Moulmein.  The Allied airforce continues to attack every day in large numbers, taking serious losses but inflicting about the same.  My hope is that the Allies can afford the losses and the Japanese can't.  Here is the result of the shock attack across the river:

Ground combat at Moulmein (55,55) 
Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 76035 troops, 1148 guns, 1167 vehicles, Assault Value = 2665 
Defending force 47857 troops, 641 guns, 405 vehicles, Assault Value = 1031

Allied adjusted assault: 985  
Japanese adjusted defense: 2779

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
     2661 casualties reported
        Squads: 5 destroyed, 180 disabled
        Non Combat: 22 destroyed, 231 disabled
        Engineers: 1 destroyed, 38 disabled
     Vehicles lost 26 (3 destroyed, 23 disabled) 

Allied ground losses:
     9993 casualties reported
        Squads: 43 destroyed, 799 disabled
        Non Combat: 27 destroyed, 806 disabled
        Engineers: 11 destroyed, 133 disabled
     Guns lost 4 (0 destroyed, 4 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 134 (9 destroyed, 125 disabled)

Namlea:  I'm pleased with the progress of the Allied attacks at Namlea.  They started off at 1:3, didn't touch three forts, but inflicted 3x casualties (a good sign).  Back-to-back attacks on Christmas and the following day lowered forts to one and cost the IJA 500 casualties and the Allies 50.  I believe the base will fall in no more than two days.  I'm recalling the reinforcement brigade, which will return to Boela (and probably prep for Talaud Island).

Salajar Island:  Recon indicated this island was vacant.  Aussie paratroops took it on the same day a small Aussie infantry detachment landed.  This base has big potential, is deep in Indian country, and is close to Kendari.  I suspect Miller will mount a counterinvasion.  I won't be able to hold it against a determined attack but it gives Miller another thing to do.

DEI:  Elsewhere in the DEI the Allies continue to gather troops at Darwin - both by bringing in fresh units from America and other rear areas and by retrieving units near or at the front.  Miller has done a good job of hit-and-run with his DD TFs, claiming quite a few Allies ships.  I have just about decided that the Allies will proceed against Talaud Island and Ternate in the near future, and Manado somewhere further down the line.  I'm less sure about Kendari.

Subs:  IJN subs have been active and have claimed a number of transports at Akyab, Chittagong, and Perth recently.

KB:  Whereabouts unknown.  Miller can pick and choose an ambush site pretty easily since the Alies have such a large perimeter.  I have to hope that the Allies get lucky with a sub or air strike to further attrit Japanese sea power. 

[Canoerebel]

12/27/43 and 12/28/43
 
DEI:  The Allies take Namlea on the 28th and land additional troops at Salajar (though a Japanese sub claims an LST and an xAP there).  The only remaining Japanese base in the Moluccas is Ternate, which has a stiff garrison of 40k - undoubtedly a division plus at either a brigade or regiment.  When the time comes to invade - no later than mid January - Miller will probably throw everything into the fray.  The Allies won't have carrier parity, but they will have adjacent airbases at Morotai and Lobolato and bases within supporting distance at Namlea and Ambon.  Boela and Sorong are a little distant but can provide some support.  Ground units continue to gather at Darwin - the invasion force will include three divisions, possibly two other division equivalents, and alot of support troops.  Looking at the map, Miller cannot afford to let the Allies hold Salajar.  It is only weakly defended, but he'd better move fairly expeditiously before the Allies consolidate.  If he sends the KB to Salajar the Allies will counter by invading Talaud Island.

Burma:  In a move that caught me by surprise and cost Miller dearly, he tried a deliberate attack at Moulmein.  I suppose he figured he'd never have a better chance to evict the invading army, but given the state of his army it was a long shot.  See combat report excerpt at the end of this post.  The OOB shows the IJA has just one division - RTA at that.  So he's trying to defend Moulmein with regiments facing divisions.  Where are 33 and 55 IJA divisions?  I hope he's having to scramble to bring in reinforcements.  The Allies will rest a short while and then try their own deliberate attack.

Political Points:  A few months ago I told Miller I had imposed a house rule on the Allies forcing them to use PP to buy restricted Indian and Chinese units before they could move into Burma.  He kind of snorted at the thought that this was of any use to him - in part I think because he felt Rangoon was pretty safe at the time.  But at the moment the Allies have two big restricted Indian units sitting in Akyab.  I really, really want to throw them into the fray, but the Allies have just 1900 PP at the moment.  I need to buy those two Indian units plus 7th US Infantry Division at San Diego.  There aren't enough PP to go around in AE!  I use some to change TF, sub, and air unit commanders, plus buying the occasional restricted Aussie unit.  This is a challenging and enjoyable part of AE.

Combat at Moulmein:
Ground combat at Moulmein (55,55)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 30431 troops, 555 guns, 50 vehicles, Assault Value = 869
Defending force 69854 troops, 1148 guns, 1159 vehicles, Assault Value = 1988

Japanese adjusted assault: 317 
Allied adjusted defense: 1681

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     6809 casualties reported
        Squads: 147 destroyed, 274 disabled
        Non Combat: 110 destroyed, 257 disabled
        Engineers: 17 destroyed, 125 disabled
     Guns lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled) 

Allied ground losses:
     1098 casualties reported
        Squads: 9 destroyed, 85 disabled
        Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 90 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
     Vehicles lost 6 (0 destroyed, 6 disabled) 

Assaulting units:
   143rd Infantry Regiment
   14th Guards Regiment
   1st RTA Division
   23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
   5th Engineer Regiment
   12th Engineer Regiment
   55th Cavalry Regiment
   7th Burma Militia Regiment
   4th INA Nehru Regiment
   16th Guards Regiment
   112th Infantry Regiment
   15th Guards Regiment
   1st Raiding Regiment
   2nd Raiding Regiment
   55th Engineer Regiment
   17th Indpt Guards Regiment
   2nd Army
   5th Mortar Battalion
   11th Shipping Engineer Regiment
   93rd JAAF AF Bn
   3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
   25th Army
   18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
   Burma Area Army
   41st Air Defense AA Regiment
   41st Air Defense AA Battalion
   16th AA Regiment
   21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion
   55th Mountain Gun Regiment
   11th Air Fleet
   94th JAAF AF Bn
   15th Army
   44th Field AA Battalion
   5th Field Artillery Regiment
   3rd Mortar Battalion
   14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
   17th JAAF AF Bn
   21st Air Flotilla
   21st Army

Defending units:
   48th Gurkha Brigade
   88th Chinese Division
   36th Chinese Division
   20th Indian Division
   7th Indian Division
   22nd New Chinese Division
   XV Corps Engineer Battalion
   200th Chinese Division
   268th Motorised Brigade
   46th Indian Brigade
   16th Indian Brigade
   11th (East African) Division
   XXXIII Corps Engineer Battalion
   1st Burma Brigade
   Provisionl Tank Brigade
   5th Indian Division
   27th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
   29th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
   6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
   Y' Force
   8th Medium Regiment
   12th Indian Engineer Battalion
   3rd (Special Force) Division

[veji1]

why did he do it ? I know it's frustrating to just be on the receiving end, but he had an opportunity to gain some time by defending stoutly at Moulmein, force you to bring more troops, reorganise a bit maybe, and take advantage of that to get his rear sorted... big mistake...

[Smeulders]

That's about half of his AV knocked in a single attack, you may have a good chance of kicking him out by attacking right away, though letting the disruption come down a bit probably isn't a bad idea.

[Canoerebel]

I took a look at my units and decided to give them a turn (which is two days in our game) to recover disruption.  Many of my biggest units were in the 60s and 70s.  I'll try a deliberate attack in three days.
 
veji1, that was my thinking - why in the world would he take a chance on losing sooner when his real objective is to hold Moulmein as long as possible?
 
I went ahead and "bought" one of the two Indian divisions at Akyab.  It's 30% prepped for Moulmein and can probably reach the battle in two weeks.

[Canoerebel]

12/29/43 and 12/30/43
 
Burma:  Allied bombardments at Moulmein hurt the Allies more than the Japanese, so I won't continue.  The Japanese are behind five forts, so I wouldn't expect to accomplish much, but hurting myself isn't worthwhile.  Allied air continues to hit the airfield in big numbers - I've been taking more losses, but I keep hoping that eventually the enemy air forces will become fatigued and run low on reinforcements.  We'll see who wears out first.  In all likelihood the Allies will try a deliberate attack tomorrow (I haven't issued orders yet, but that's my plan) - this is a crucial moment as it will probably reveal whether the Allies can expect to take the city near-term or long-term.
 
China:  Chinese troops are on the move to several staging points near the front and are prepping "furiously."  Most of the units are about 30% prepped now.  They should be in position to attack in about 30 days and by then prep will be adequate.
 
DEI:  (1)  As expected, Miller quickly organized a counter-invasion of Salajar.  He's brought along 48th Mixed Brigade, but he's encountering more opposition than he had expected.  The Marine CD unit that had just landed at Salajar roughed up a number of transports (all AKLs) and escorting PB.  SBD sortied and claimed several xAKs.  And a sub nailed a CL with two torpedoes.  Miller hasn't landed enough to take Salajar (the garrison is 50 AV behind two forts).  He'll have to commit more, which suits me fine.  (2)  Thinking that Miller might commit heavily to ensure Salajar was retaken, I commenced loading the Talaud Island invasion troops.  These guys are at Boela and could hit Talaud in as soon as four days.   Not sure whether I'll pull the trigger yet.  The troops include the two Aussie brigades roughed up in the previous effort when an IJN DD TF roughed up some combat TFs and then the transports enroute to Talaud - these two units are 100% prepped and have a combined AV of about 150.  The third unit is a UK brigade 15% prepped (it was the reserve for Namlea).  The IJ garrison is two small units that can't have much combat power nor can they have much prep.
 
Damaged Capital Ships:  All of the big capital ships late from the Battle of Morotai have made the yards at Pearl, San Francisco, and Alameda.  Repair estimates range from 40 to 60 days.  By the time these guys are ready for action again, the Allies will have a big carrier force.  In addition to Constellation, Bunker Hill, and Saratoga on the West Coast, CV Intrepid is at Balboa with two CVLs (and two more on the way).  I believe three CVL are currently at Oz along with perhaps 10 CVE (and several more on the way).

[wpurdom]

Who was the cruiser TF co at Morotai?

[Canoerebel]

I don't recall the commander now as the battle was several weeks ago, but he wasn't as good as he should have been.  My bad in putting a cruiser TF at the front lines without the best possible captain, but I I had been shuttling so many combat TFs back and forth around the eastern DEI that I lost track.  He has since been replaced.
 
Developments as I issued orders for the next two day turn:
 
1.  The Allied army at Moulmein has recovered from disruption fairly well (most units are in the 20s now).  I'll try a deliberate attack tomorrow with about 2250 AV.  Most troops are 25% to 35% prepped and the Japanese shouldn't be any better.
 
2.  I've moved forward two SBD and one TBF unit to Namlea and moved more fighters to the island bases west of Timor.  I'm hoping to rough up more Japanese ships tomorrow, but Miller will be flying LRCAP from two nearby bases (Kendari and Makassar).
 
3.  I'm hoping that the sudden emergency at Salajar will attract enough Japanese attention and units to lessen their ability to respond with alacrity to an invasion of Talaud Island.  The troops transports should depart Boela within a day or two.  They will head to Morotai where bad things happened the last time I tried this.
 
4.  The most "distant" unit slated for the Ternate invasion is 6th Division aboard transports at Pago Pago.  ETA for this unit at Darwin is probably 17 to 21 days.  So D-Day Ternate is probably about one month away.

[Canoerebel]

12/31/43 and 1/1/44
 
Happy New Year!  According to my "official AE calendar," 1943 is the Year of Attrtion and 1944 is the Year of Advancement.  Time to go!
 
Sorong:  A Japanese CA/DD force tangled with an Allied CL/DD force at Sorong.  One IJN DD suffered heavy damage.
 
Morotai:  In conjunction with the nearing move on Talaud Island, the Allies have based two stout combat TFs here - one of them is flagged by BB Royal Sovereign.  This may attract heavy attention from the Japanese, but so be it.  Morotai now has four good fighter squadrons and adjacent Lobolato has two.
 
Salajar:  Miller's troops didn't attack this turn, which surprised me a bit.  That Mixed Brigade must've really taken some disruption and losses in the landing.
 
KB:  Where is it?  Does Miller have it parked at Babeldaob to protect against Allied incursions toward Manado or Talaud or Davao, or has he moved it to Batavia in order to do a sneak attack around Timor or handle incursions toward Java (like Salajar Island)?  I've wondered for several weeks if the latter wasn't the most likely, but I'm not positive.
 
Burma: The Allied attack comes off at 1:2 and incurs rather substantial casualties, but a closer looks suggests reason for optimism.  First, the attack dropped forts from 5 to 4 (that's very signficant).  Second, the actual number of squads destroyed was nearly identical.   Third, the unmodified IJA AV is quite low, meaning the base is very vulnerable once forts are reduced to a level 1 or 2.  Miller had better bring reinforcements fast if he wants to hold Moulmein.  The pertinent part of the combat report follows:
 
Ground combat at Moulmein (55,55)
 
Allied Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 72374 troops, 1157 guns, 1164 vehicles, Assault Value = 2244
Defending force 41965 troops, 642 guns, 402 vehicles, Assault Value = 653
 
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4
 
Allied adjusted assault: 1077  
Japanese adjusted defense: 1745
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 4)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1595 casualties reported
         Squads: 29 destroyed, 99 disabled
         Non Combat: 26 destroyed, 101 disabled
         Engineers: 19 destroyed, 34 disabled
      Guns lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 24 (1 destroyed, 23 disabled) 
 
Allied ground losses:
      4578 casualties reported
         Squads: 30 destroyed, 245 disabled
         Non Combat: 32 destroyed, 298 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 42 disabled
      Guns lost 3 (0 destroyed, 3 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 37 (1 destroyed, 36 disabled)

[Canoerebel]

The situation in the DEI on on the eve of 1944. This lid may blow off here pretty soon.

[veji1]

very bad for him.. Moulmein could have been a good place to get a stop for him.. his deliberate attack might come as one of his worst mistakes of the war (we all make some, but we regret some more than others..).

[Canoerebel]

I've issued orders for the next two-day turn with these things going on:

1.  The transports for the Talaud Island invasion will rendezvous at Morotai, hoping to avoid a repeat of history (the last time this happened an IJN DD TF ripped into the transports despite a covering CA TF).  This time there are two CA TFs and a BB (Royal Sovereign) TF present.  But that may well draw far more IJN power.  So l sent this turn to Miller with a strong sense of unlease.

2.  The Japanese transports withdrew from Salajar - beaten up and having failed to land the IJA brigade in good shape.  But I have no doubt Miller will bring reinforcements.  The Allies will try to do the same.

3.  At Moulmein, the Allied army needs to rest a few more days before trying the next attack.  Despite heavy losses in the air battle running about 1.50 or 1.75 to 1, the Allies seem to be getting the upper hand.  Damage to the field stands at about 38% and the number of Japanese aircraft based there has fallen considerably.  LRCAP isn't an ideal solution for the Japanese because the closest good fields (Tavoy and Bangkok) are fairly distant.  If the Allies succeed in gaining control of the air, this battle will be over because it would seriously hamper Miller's ability to reinforce the base by sea.  A reinforced Allied combat TF including two BC, a BB, and some escorting CA and DD will return to theater in less than a week.  (The fact that DDs will be present is a big improvement - I didn't have any last time this TF was on scene, but it still managed to chew up a big AKL TF).

[Canoerebel]

1/2/44 and 1/3/44
 
A fairly quiet two-day turn, but the next should be considerably different:
 
Talaud Island:  This time the invasion transports arrive at "Point Luck" (Morotai) without incident.  Whether they arrive unmolested at Talaud Island tomorrow is another question.  There is so much Allied shipping in the area that perhaps Miller won't foresee this move...or perhaps he will.  The invasion will be covered by two CA combat TFs, a BB (Royal Sovereign) bombardment TF, and a handful of good squadrons flying LRCAP from Lobaloto and Morotai.  Recon shows the defense is two units totaling less than 5k troops.  Given two good days to unload the Allies should be able to take the base...maybe.  Taking Talaud would be a critcal strategic advantage, so this has my full attention.
 
Salajar Island:  Miller is steadily bombing the port to prevent the Allies from building facilities (but forts reached two before he began).  A small Allied reinforcement convoy will try to go in tomorrow - preceded by a CA TF.  LRCAP to be provided from Maumere.  What will happen I don't know.  Lots of Japanese air hammering the island, so I hope they remain set to naval strike.
 
Moulmein:  The Allies can't quite get the best of the Japanese air force at Moulmein.  I'm taking heavier losses every turn, but I keep thinking eventually the Japanese will have to give it up.  The Allies will try a deliberate attack tomorrow - anything that includes a reduction in forts from 4 to 3 will be considered a noteworthy achievement.
 
Long Term:  Alot rests on Talaud Island.  If I take it then a north or northwesterly vector of attack remains very attractive - Manado and the Philippines Islands south of Mindanao are the likel targets.  If I don't take Talaud, then the Allies will at least consider a westerly approach - perhaps concentrating on the southern Celebes.  That vector is attractive if the Allies still hold Salajar at the time (which I consider unlikely).
 
Japanese Capabilities and Positioning:  (1) I am still thinking along previous lines that the IJN is short of cruisers; (2)  How long will Mutsu, Nagato, and Yamato be in the yards?  I don't know, but I think it's time to assume they can show up; (3)  Still no sign of IJN carriers.  I suspect they are located at Batavia, but I bear in mind that they could be at Palau or the Philippines; (4) Miller has definately concentrated on beefing up defenses to the north and west, but whether the west is more open and less defended is unkown at this point; (5)  If Moulmein collapses the Japanese are in trouble in SE Asia.
 
China:  I *think* the upcoming multi-pronged offensives in China will really catch Miller by surprise.  The main attack begins at Hengyang, garrisoned by three units with another nearby.  A Chinese army of some 2,800 AV is prepping for Hengyang.  Assuming they blow through the base, I have two armies equally as large prepping for the next two bases down the road (Kolanko? and Kanhsien).  Other probing attacks will be made at Nanning, Liuchow, Changsha, Changteh, Sian, and Ankang to see if any weaknesses exist in those locations.  Step-off for most of these attacks could occur in as little as two weeks (it will take longer to get the northern troops to Sian).

[Canoerebel]

I have sent the turn to Miller and expect to get it back in three or four hours.  In honor of the scheduled assault on Talaud Island, here's another installment of "These are the Voyages":
 
1.  3rd Marine Parachute Battalion:  After arriving at Sand Diego in May 1942, this unit shipped out to Pearl Harbor.  From there the unit was inserted at Midway at a time when hostilities were believed imminent (and, in fact, a Japanese invasion fleet approached the island but withdrew once they gauged the extent of the defenses).  The unit later returned to Pearl Harbor and from there boarded transports for SWPac where it took station at Sorong.  Part of the unit took the vacant, but nevertheless important, base of Lobalato (adjacent to Ternate) just prior to the Battle of Morotai.  The rest of the unit will take part in the assault on Talaud Island on January 5, 1944.
 
2.  1st Marine Parachute Battalion:  After the unit was formed on the East Coast in May 1942 it traveled by train to San Diego, and thence by ship to SWPac where it reproted to duty at Aru Island.  Prepped for an air assault on Sorong, the mission was scrubbed due to the size of the Japanese garrison.  Most of the unit was transported by ship to Sorong after an Allied army took that base - and will join 3rd Marine 'Chutes in tomorrow's assault on Talaud Island.
 
3.  1st Australian Parachute Battalion:   Available in Sydney in January 1943, this unit traveled by train to Alice Spring and then marched to Darwin.  Transported by ship to Barar Island in the summer of 1943, the unit took a vacant Alor (just west of Timor) in the autumn of 1943.  The unit remained at Alor until it took the unoccupied Salajar Island (near Kendari) in December 1943.  Reinforced by 12th Marine CD and a small Australian militia unit, these troops are in a tough battle against 48th Mixed Brigade, counter-landed by the Japanese.  The outcome of the battle is uncertain.
 
4.  27th U.S. Infantry Division:  This unit is about as far from SWPac as you can get.  Available at March Field in late December 1941, this unit traveled by rail to Seattle where it began prepping for Parmushiro Jima in the Kuriles.  Embarking on the invasion transports in early October 1942, the armada sailed west into the Bering Sea, but was recalled late that month and returned to Seattle.  An augmented invasion force boarded transports at Seattle in February 1943 and this time carried through with the invasion (D-Day was March 1, 1943) of Parmushiro Jima and Onnekotan Jima.  Both islands were taken, but in a titanic campaign that lasted three months the Japanese eventually reclaimed both island.  A cadre of 27th Division was evacuated to Attu by sub.  Seven months later, that cadre has nearly rebuilt into a full division (the AV is 363) and is 100% prepped for Marcus Island.  (Note:  Japanese recon aircraft are checking out Attu - worried that the Allies may intend to hit the Kuriles again.  It suits the Allies fine for the Japanese to find an entire American army at Attu.)  

[crsutton]

Canoerebel,

Not to get you off track but would you take a look at your seven Ozzie tank regiments? Do they all look the same with a compliment of 18 light tanks and about 40 mediums or are some of them much smaller? I am trying to determine if mine are filling out correctly and figure yours should all be full by now. Thanks.

[Canoerebel]

cr, I'm not even sure I have seven Australian tank regiments.  I do have seven small armored units (2/4th; 2/5th; etc.) scattered around Australia and SWPac (mainly at places like Newcastle, Cairns, etc.).  Most of these are set to "No Reinforcements".  A few of them have some Stuart light tanks.  I've used these units (especially earlier in the war) to provide garrisons to many isolated outposts.  Perhaps it's time to set them to permit reinforcments.  Sorry I can't be of more help.

[Canoerebel]

Reading some of the ASW/Sub threads prompted me to check stats in my game.

As of January 3, 1944, the Japanese have lost an estimated 77 submarines and the Allies have lost 26.

Some interesting stats within the stats:

1.  The Allies lost 5 subs from 12/7/41 through 12/31/42; they've lost 21 in the year since then (Allied sub losses skyrocketed after one of the patches).  The Allies are on a pace to lose more subs than they did in the "real" war, but not by an unreasonable amount unless the rate of loss climbs.  The Allies are on a pace to lose about 60 (and lost about 50 in the Pacific during the war).

2.  Of the 26 Allied subs lost, none have been lost to mines (a surprise, because quite a few have been damaged); 6 to bombs, 4 to torpedoes, 1 "unknown", and 15 to depth charge.  I have not been particularly aggressive with subs - I don't park them in port hexes, but prefer patrols near the hex.  Most patrols are in deep water hexes.

3.  So, you're thinking that this shows that the Allies have been devastating against IJN subs, right?  To the contrary.  Miller has used his subs in a hyper-aggressive manner - parking them in the biggest Allied ports despite the threat of ASW, air patrol, and mines.  His subs have had amazing success in the game.  If each of the 77 subs he's lost had claimed a ship or two I'd say he'd be hurting, but I bet each has claimed 5 or more victims...not to mention all the capital ships (especially BB) they've hit - and in three cases sunk - during the war.

4.  The Japanese had lost 23 subs through 12/31/42 and have lost another 54 in the year since.  I haven't kept exact score, but I know that Allied combat TFs are far, far, far, far more effective at ASW than are ASW TFs.

[Canoerebel]

1/4/43 and 1/5/43
 
A complicated and important series of attacks over two days goes very well, but with some losses:

1. Talaud Island: This is the most important move - not because the base is heavily defended but because of its location.  The landings go very well.  After two days the Allies have ashore 250 AV 100% prepped.   The defense is less than 100 AV under-prepped consisting of one Naval Guard unit.  I did forget that the landings wouldn't trigger an auto attack (not an atoll), so my 'chutes battalions didn't get any help.  They did, however, land in good shape and will help in the attack.  Forts are two.  Unless I'm missing something or the Japanese immediately reinforce, this base should fall quickly.  There were no air or sea attacks - a huge relief.

2. Salajar Island:  Both sides bumped heads in an interesting way - Miller REALLY wants this island back!  First, CA San Francisco and CA Frobisher led a TF that faced off against a stout Japanese combat TF including CAs Tone, Nachi, Mogami, and Myoko.   SF took heavy damage and an Allied DD went under.  Damage to the Japanese TF was minimal.  But the Allied TF kept going and plowed into a transport TF sinking an xAK, five AKL, and five E-class boats with some 691 ground troop casualties reported.  This had to sting (and the fact that Miller keeps bringing reinforcements by AKL tells me he's fairly short of transports and had to put this together on the fly).  Japanese LBA did finish off CA San Fran, CL Helena, and a DD or two.  Later, an Allied DM TF visited the island.  Many more Japanese strike aircraft sortied, but they took major losses without scoring a hit.

3. Moulmein:  After resting four days the Allies deliberate attack.  I had hoped to drop forts, but no such luck.  But the results are okay:

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     4270 casualties reported
        Squads: 7 destroyed, 128 disabled
        Non Combat: 80 destroyed, 185 disabled
        Engineers: 74 destroyed, 27 disabled
     Guns lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 19 (2 destroyed, 17 disabled) 

Allied ground losses:
     3216 casualties reported
        Squads: 16 destroyed, 201 disabled
        Non Combat: 39 destroyed, 176 disabled
        Engineers: 11 destroyed, 40 disabled
     Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 57 (10 destroyed, 47 disabled)

Overall a very successful day for the Allies.  Talaud Island is huge.  And now that it appears that the Allies will take it I might be able to devote a little more effort to Salajar.

But I'm still worried about the KB.  It could show up someplace inconvenient - Salajar, Moulmein, or Talaud Island - and mess up any ships I have too far from CAP. 

[Canoerebel]

Orders were issued for the next two days.  An update:
 
1.  Just to further stir things up in the Salajar Island/Kendari region, I'm going to drop a Special Forces unit on Kolanko, a vacant base on the same Celebes arm as Kendari.  I won't be able to reinforce near term, but it should further rattle Miller's cage.  He's clearly worried about the Salajar Island situation and the threat to this part of the DEI, so I think it's worth a shot.  The Special Forces unit is 100% prepped for the base.
 
2.  The Allied troops that landed on Talaud Island are in great shape and they'll attack tomorrow.  I've ordered all transports and combat TFs to pull back to Morotai on the assumption that Miller may strike with everything available.  The BB Royal Sovereign TF will retire to Boela.  Royal Soveign is due for withdrawal in about a week, so it's time to send this ship to Sydney.  She's been through most of the great campaigns in the war thus far, for a time was the only Allied BB in the DEI, and to the best of my recollection has never taken serious damage.
 
3.  The Allied army at Moulmein will rest while the very bloody air war continues.  I still haven't gotten the upper hand, but I'm trying.
 
4.  Three Chinese armies totallying over 7,000 AV are now in place adjacent to Hengyang.  I wonder if Miller is watching China closely enough to notice (the hex was already occupied by a small army, so unless he's really scanning hexes he won't notice).  The three armies are prepping for Hengang, Kolanko (sp?), and Kanhsein, respectively.  Prep for most units is in the high 30s.  I may kick off the show when they reach 50.
 
5.  The most distant TFs carrying troops for the Ternate invasion are between Noumea and Oz.  Loading of troops at Darwin will probably commence in about three weeks.  I'm not sure I'll have enough transports to carry the army in one load.