Shattered Vow

[Grotius]

but I know that Allied combat TFs are far, far, far, far more effective at ASW than are ASW TFs.

Interesting. By "combat" do you mean "surface combat" TFs? That is, Surface Combat TFs are better at ASW than ASW TFs? Should I be putting my DDs into surface groups rather than making separate ASW TFs? Or is this an Allies-only thing?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Grotius

but I know that Allied combat TFs are far, far, far, far more effective at ASW than are ASW TFs.

Interesting. By "combat" do you mean "surface combat" TFs? That is, Surface Combat TFs are better at ASW than ASW TFs? Should I be putting my DDs into surface groups rather than making separate ASW TFs? Or is this an Allies-only thing?

I mean surface combat TFs. They claim four or five or six or eight or ten subs for every sub damaged by ASW TFs.

I don't know if it's some oddity in game mechanics or if its the fact that combat TFs can be much larger than the 4-ship-max ASW TFs.

[Canoerebel]

1/6/43 and 1/7/43
 
A good day for the Allies:

Talaud Island:  The Allies take Talaud on the second of back-to-back deliberate attacks.  With about two brigades and engineers ashore to form a pretty stiff garrison, and the proximity of major Allied bases, I rate the chances of a counterlanding as very slim.  Talaud is of critical importance to the Allies.  It gives the Allies a base with big potential close to Mindanao (a long-term benefit), but for the short-term gives the Allies another base close to Ternate and makes Japanese naval incursions from Babeldoab (Palau) more risky. 

Morotai:  Miller didn't send a combat TF to Talaud, but he did send the same DD TF to Morotai that roughed up several Allied combat TFs and invasion transports a few weeks ago.  This time the results were markedly different.  Eighteen IJN DDs faced an Allied TF of CA Baltimore, three CL, and eight DD.  In round one, four IJN DD were sunk and five badly damaged while one Allied DD suffered heavy damage and three light/moderate damage.  Three of the heavily damaged IJN DD continued on and battled a second Allied TF, with all three DDs going down.  So I think the IJN lost seven DDs with two more heavily damaged.  That's a tough lick for the Japanese to take.  

Namlea:  The Allies have nearly wiped out the Japanese garrison.  Engineers are working to increase facilities (currently port 1, airfield 3).

Salajar:  The Japanese tried back-to-back attacks; the first lowered forts to one and the second didn't do anything.  The Japanese took heavier losses, but also have more men to work with.  Reinforcement will be very risky and without it the base will surely fall in a few days.  But Allied shore guns, mines, and land-based SBDs claimed additional victims:  an xAk and a PB sunk and two xAK and three PB heavily damaged.

Other DEI Action:  In an effort to rattle the Japanese, the Allied landed two other places.  The Special Services detachment took the vacant base of Kokaka (near Kendari) and a small unit landed on the dot hex of Obi just north of Namlea.  I don't expect to hold Kolaka (Miller will counterinvade as soon as he deals with Salajar), but Obi he'll ignore.  It will be turned into a little airbase to cover the gap between Namlea and Morotai.

Moulmein:  Additional bloody air combat.  The Japanese get the best of it, but so many Allied aircraft are involved that some get through to hit the airfield.  The Allies may try another deliberate attack next turn.

[ny59giants]

What have you been doing with your 4e bombers?? They might help if they could hit Bangkok or Tavoy for a few days. If not there, then I would have them hitting more distant targets around the DEI to force Miller to keep CAP at those bases.

[Canoerebel]

Only two squadrons of 4EB are currently in Burma.  Both are flying against Moulmein.  They are too effective in knocking down enemy fighters and too few too use effectely against other Southeast Asia targets (at the moment).
 
All American 4EB are located in the DEI.  Most are currently employed in keeping Ternate airfield shut down.  Miller conceded that battle a few weeks ago.
 
Allied 4EB also make occasional raids against Kendari, Manado, and, most recently, Talaud Island.  Over the coming weeks the Allies will be shifting some 4EB squadrons closer to the front.  I have enough depth now that some of the "interior" bases can be closed down or minimized.  Once the 4EB are based at Ambon and Morotai (and possibly Sorong) targets will expand to include Balikpan and Davao (and possibly Babeldaob).
 
Allied bases in the southern DEI (Alor, Maumere, etc.) are being expanded.  Eventually they will base B-29 squadrons that will target Soerabaja and other key bases in the DEI. 

[Canoerebel]

I'm out of town tomorrow, so no turns.  But a few comments about orders issues:
 
1.  The BC Renown TF will leave Akyab to hit shipping at Moulmein.  Some of the best LRCAP fighters at Rangoon and Bassien have been assigned to CAP.  Since they aren't available for escort duty, I've temporarily halted the strikes against Moulmein.  Instead, some of the bombers will target Tavoy (for the first time).  This move was prompted, in part, by the question posed by NYGiants (above).  Also, the Allies actually have five 4EB squadrons in Burma (not two as previously stated).
 
2.  The infantry will try a deliberate attack at Moulmein.  Sure would like to knock down forts another notch.
 
3  No major combat expected in the DEI tomorrow.  Lots of shifting around of troops and forces, plus one small supply convoy heading to Talaud Island.
 
4.  The last remaining convoy with Ternate-prepped troops (6th Infantry Division) will arrive at Townsville in a few days.  However, a big APA/AK TF carrying some HQ units is still way back near Pago Pago.  I may need the lift capacity, so that means I can't go until these ships reach Darwin (a minimum of two weeks).
 
5.  BB New Jersey, CA Boston, a CL, and 8 DDs depart Balboa for Tahiti tomorrow.
 
6.  BB Iowa arrives at Balboa in two days.  She may stay there to serve in the CV Intrepid TF when it moves out (which won't be awhile as they're waiting for the BBs/CVs in the yards at Alameda and S.F.).

[Canoerebel]

A few words about my opponent:

1.  I've always considered Miller superior at tactical defense.  This game reinforces my impression.  His defense is well organized and he hits hard and pretty often.  He's really exacted a toll on the Allies in this game (and I think he's suffered plenty of losses himself). 

2.  In our WitP match, the Allies drew even in points in late January 1944 (and by that point I think the Allies already owned Mindanao and were either about to hit Luzon or were already there).  In this game, as of early January '44, the Japanese are 11,000 points ahead.  Much slower going - in part due to Scenario Two, the slightly slower pace usually present in AE, and the fact that Miller was much quicker in putting together a defense of the DEI.

3.  Miller and I both enjoy the game and probably play too much, but we're having a blast and the game is very tense and exciting.  For two years the Japanese have been at least equal to the Allies.  That's slowly shifting, but the Japanese remain potent.  But even when things go sour for the Japanese, Miller always stays faithful in playing the game and flipping turns.  He's an ideal opponent.

4. Current "fleet in being" use of KB (hasn't been seen in weeks) is drivin' me nuts! Where is it? About to clobber my BC Renown TF at Moulmein? About to hit several dozen transport TFs scattered throughout the eastern DEI? Ready to pounce on Townsville or Noumea or Pago Pago? I dunno!

[Canoerebel]

Now I want to set down some thoughts regarding Allied strategy.  The capture of Talaud Island has driven a wedge in Japan's MLR and has opened new and promising territory to Allied offensives. 
 
I'm also curious about the current disposition of Japanese forces.  The move on Talaud was countered only by a DD TF and no aircraft or carriers.  In contrast, IJN cruisers and air are actively involved around Salajar (south DEI) and around Moulmein.  Does this indicate a new focus in Japan's defense?  If so, is it permanent or about to change?  And where are the carriers (their absence has me looking for them anywhere - a great move by Miller even if it isn't intentional).
 
Here are the options available to the Allies in order of likelihood of selection:
 
1.  Invade Ternate.  Advantages: close to several Allied airbases that can provide LRCAP; close to Allied territory so that the Allies may achieve some level of surprise using two-day turns; taking it shuts off the last Japanese base in this part of the DEI, providing security to the LOC; taking it gives the Allies yet another big airbase to support a future move on Manado.  Disadvantages:  Big garrison (40k); this has been a big base forever, so forts may be high; possibility of CD and mines; all this means the campaign could take very long.
 
2.  Move Fast on Mindanao:  Advantages: big island with lots of good bases, some of which are vacant; that means a possibility of landing unopposed; troops can fan out after landing to take additional bases; likelihood of getting some airfields fairly quickly; leap forward really drives a wedge in Japan's defenses and opens up Borneo, Luzon, and South China Sea to Allied threat; if Miller's air and carriers really are somewhere else the move might face less opposition than expected.  Disadvantages:  such a move is "sticking my nose out;" LRCAP probably only from Talaud Island and Morotai; if Miller gathers his defenses (carriers and LBA) he could inflict great damage on my most precious commodity (APAs).
 
3.  Move Fast on South Celebes:  Gather a force and move fast Kolanko (spelling?), the base near Kendari just taken by Allied special forces unit.  Advantages:  Base is Allied held meaning friendly landing; once big army lands it can move out and take other vacant or lightly defended bases and then move on Kendari at its leisure; likelihood of establishing several good airbases that would control Kendari/Makassar; 4EB (especially B-29, which arrive in April) can hit Soerabaja, Balikpan, Miri, Brunei, etc. with ease).  Disadvantages:  Sticking my nose out pretty far; Miller may be spoiling for a big fight in this region given his reaction to the Salajar Island campaign; no troops prepped; changes main vector from northwest to west (most troops are prepping for Ternate and Manado; only a relative handful for Kendari).

[Grotius]

I have no idea how to advise you on your options; you have more experience than me, and the order you presented sounds reasonable to me. But I wonder if it's possible for you to neutralize Ternate without throwing yourself headlong against 40,000 troops. That's what, 2-3 divisions? How big is his airfield at Ternate? Would it be possible for you to crater the airfield, and then go around it, along the lines of the historical campaign against Rabaul and Truk? Or is his fighter/AAA protection too strong?

[Canoerebel]

Good question.

There is a time to bypass strongpoints. I've done it (Port Moresby) and will do it again. But I don't think Ternate is a good candidate because it sits along my main LOC through the DEI. 

I think 40k troops will mean two divisions (or a division plus an equivalent) plus other things most likely including a nasty CD or two.

I shut down the airfield weeks ago. I have four divisions plus another 1.5 or 2 equivalent 75% prepped.  The regular bombing of the airfield should mean low supplies, which helps.

I'll mull this over tomorrow.

[Ron Saueracker]

This AAR is great CR. IMO I'd paste Ternate and everywhere else in the region until your CVs are up to scratch to defend against whatever. You've done well but have taken brutal losses up to this point due to parity, game mechanics, dehumanized units etc. Attrit, attrit, attrit!!!

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Grotius

but I know that Allied combat TFs are far, far, far, far more effective at ASW than are ASW TFs.

Interesting. By "combat" do you mean "surface combat" TFs? That is, Surface Combat TFs are better at ASW than ASW TFs? Should I be putting my DDs into surface groups rather than making separate ASW TFs? Or is this an Allies-only thing?

I mean surface combat TFs. They claim four or five or six or eight or ten subs for every sub damaged by ASW TFs.

I don't know if it's some oddity in game mechanics or if its the fact that combat TFs can be much larger than the 4-ship-max ASW TFs.

I have noticed this as well. But combat TF won't react to a sub so you have to send them out to hit or miss the target. If you opponent is moving his subs a lot (unlike Miller) then this may not work as well.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

cr, I'm not even sure I have seven Australian tank regiments.  I do have seven small armored units (2/4th; 2/5th; etc.) scattered around Australia and SWPac (mainly at places like Newcastle, Cairns, etc.).  Most of these are set to "No Reinforcements".  A few of them have some Stuart light tanks.  I've used these units (especially earlier in the war) to provide garrisons to many isolated outposts.  Perhaps it's time to set them to permit reinforcments.  Sorry I can't be of more help.

Actually, I was off by one. There are six pure tank regiments that take 18 stuarts, 18 Lee/Grants, 18 Lee/Grants and 5 Lee/Grant in the HQ company-for a total of over sixty tanks. These are fairly powerful units and are saving my butt in 8/41. You might want to fill a few up and use them. I don't think the Lee/grant tanks are used by any units but the Australian so no sense wasting them. Very useful units and I think they can be bought out of OZ with PP

[Canoerebel]

1/8/44 and 1/9/44
 
crusutton:  I don't believe I've ever formed a combat TF specifically to hunt subs.  My combat TFs that have proved so effective at ASW are just on regular missions - moving from this port to that port when they stumble across an IJN sub.

Ron:  Since I have a big army 80% prepped for Ternate it will be the default selection.  IE, if I don't have a strong reason or hunch to head somewhere else I'll hit Ternate.  I spent time looking at the map - lots of possibilities.  But at this point I don't have any strong leanings toward any particular option.

Moulmein:  Back-to-back Allied deliberate attacks came off at 1:1 and dropped forts from four to two, so major cracks have developed in the Japanese dike.  The fall of Moulmein is imminent.  Miller either has to bring in reinforcements poste haste or he probably needs to evacuate the town to preserve some fighting integrity in his units.  The "computer" tells me to continue the attacks over the next two turns, but I've countermanded the orders so that my troops can rest a bit.  The BC Renown TF went in and engaged an IJN TF in a very sharp fight with the Allies coming out on the short end.  CLAA Heemskerk went under, BC Renown will probably follow suit, and two DDs were heavily damaged.  On the IJN side, CA Aoba suffered heavy damage, one DD went under, and two CL had "heavy fires."  An RN BB and another BC are on the way to replace the losses.  Losing Renown is bad, but further attritioning the IJN cruiser fleet is good.

Burma Air Campaign:  The Allied air raid nearly shut down Tavoy's airfield.  Allied bombers will divide attention between Tavoy and Moulmein next turn.

What's Next:  If Moulmein falls I believe the Japanese army will retire toward Tavoy.  If so, I'll probably divide the Allied army.  Part will "chase" the Japanese.  The other part will head due east on "yellow" roads, take Raehang, and eventually threaten Bangkok from the north.

DEI:  1st Assie parachutes - a very busy unit - will hit the vacant base of Ruheng (western tip of Flores) tomorrow.  Shuttling of troops from forward bases back to Darwin continues.  As noted above, I'm not positive yet which way the Allies head next - probably the invasion of Ternate, but I'm still considering a move on Mindanao or a move to consolidate the Allied gains at Kolanko, Salajar, and (in all likelihood) Ruheng.

[FOW]

Re Invasion of Ternate

GO OVERLAND !!!!!!!!!!! - it avoids the CD guns and mines (it's not a blocked hexside, is it?)

At the very least send a Battalion through the jungle to 'recce' the base.

[Canoerebel]

The strategic map as of January 9, 1944:

1. Since the last strat map posted a few months ago, the main Allied advances have been in Burma (taking Rangoon and Pegu, with Moulmein's fall imminent) and in the DEI (taking Morotai, Talaud Island, Ambon, Namlea, and some of the islands west of Timor).

2. The blue arrows indicate the primary vectors of advance in the coming months:

a) from the DEI the Allies hope to move against Mindanao, northeastern Borneo, and the islands in between. The objective is to attain bases on the South China Sea and to put the Allies in position to move on either Vietnam, coastal China, and/or Luzon.
b) from China, the Chinese hope to move toward the coast in order to support and compliment any Western Allied efforts to take coastal Chinese cities.
c) from Burma, the Allies hope to move toward Vietnam in order to support and compliment any Allied efforts to move on coastal Vietnam or China from the DEI and Philippines.

This has been the "grand" Allied strategy since early 1942. For well over a year Allied movements and logistics have been premised on this plan. The advance in the DEI is on schedule (or possibly a bit behind). The advance in Burma is ahead of schedule (I wasn't expecting much from this direction, but events have provide big opportunities). The advance in China is about to get underway.

[Canoerebel]

Wow, that's an intersesting suggestion, FOW! I've worried about the IJA garrison moving by land to hit my small and vulnerable base at Lobolata, but I hadn't considered doing the reverse. A great idea at recon - and probably pretty realistic. After all, the Allies would send in recon patrols to gauge a base's defenses before a seaborne attack.

ORIGINAL: FOW

Re Invasion of Ternate

GO OVERLAND !!!!!!!!!!! - it avoids the CD guns and mines (it's not a blocked hexside, is it?)

At the very least send a Battalion through the jungle to 'recce' the base.

Edited to Update: I checked this out - ground unit cannot move directly from Lobolato to adjacent Ternate; but they can reach it by first moving through a hex to the south. That means a two-hex march through jungle. While I may try that for scouting purposes with a small unit, I don't think it would work for an entire army.

[Canoerebel]

1/10/44 and 1/11/44
 
Did He Or Didn't He?  I swear I issued those orders to stand down my troops at Moulmein for two days, but they attacked anyway (meaning I must not have issued the orders).  The attacks were very successful with forts dropping from two to zero and the Japanese suffering much higher losses.  I expect Moulmein to fall tomorrow.  Miller must expect the same, for he didn't fly any CAP over the besieged base.  However, his combat TF did apply the coup-de-grace to BC Renown and an escorting DD.

China:  The Chinese hordes are on the move.  Probing bombardments at Liuchow, Changsha, and Changteh tomorrow and a deliberate attack at Hengyang. These may catch Miller totally by surprise since neither of us has done anything in China in many, many months.  The one attack I'm really looking at is Hengyang, where 3,500 AV will square off against three units of unknown strength.  If the Chinese can blow through here, they have another 3,500 AV ready to exploit toward Kukenko (sp?) and Kahnsien.

DEI:  65th Brigade recaptured Salajar Island - I wish I could've reinforced and retained this base, but it seved a valuable purpose.  1st Aussie paratroops took Ruteng Island, so the Japanese have two more first to put out (Ruteng and Kolanko).  Most Ternate-prepped troops have been retrieved from the front lines and have returned to Darwin.  The only remaining major unit absent is 6th Division, which is aboard transports that will refuel at Townsville tomorrow.

[FOW]

I can see now that your small base is on the east side of the bay so no direct link, marching SW follows the coast around the bay.
How about landing at the dot base NE of Ternate and marching down? (if that route is possible). Would need to employ AP/AK/LST for the quick unload time obviously.

One of those Oz Para/Cdo Coys would be an ideal recon unit

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, that's an intersesting suggestion, FOW! I've worried about the IJA garrison moving by land to hit my small and vulnerable base at Lobolata, but I hadn't considered doing the reverse. A great idea at recon - and probably pretty realistic. After all, the Allies would send in recon patrols to gauge a base's defenses before a seaborne attack.

[Canoerebel]

1/12/44 and 1/13/44
 
Very interesting turn in several areas:

China:  The Allied "probing" deliberate attacks at Hengyang came off at 3:1, dropped forts from three to one, and the Chinese took considerably higher losses.  Miller has three divisions present and I think can get another unit in place quickly.  However, I think the Chinese can blow through Hengyang by shear weight of numbers.  If Miller doesn't have his rear bases adequately garrisoned the races will be on.  In a separate area, I think the Chinese can also take Liuchow, held by just one mixed brigade against a Chinese force of four or five divisions.

Diplomacy:  Miller mildy protested that he thought we had a ceasefire in effect in China.  That's not the way I remember it.  His email:  "Re China: I thought the ceasefire was until we agreed otherwise? I got a message from someone on the Matrix forums a while back saying you were concerned I was stripping China of units and sending them elsewhere.......I think you can tell from this turn that is not the case. I admit I have been sending units from Manchuria elsewhere but I have paid the PP to move them..."

I sent this email back: 
[font=arial] [/font]
"As best I remember, you declared a cease fire after taking Liuchow (and shortly before taking Kweilin at my suggestion).  If I remember correctly I didn't request it and told you I didn't want it.  You were being merciful, I think.  When I told you I would "come back later," your comment was something to the effect that the Chinese had been rendered impotent due to lack of supply and probably wouldn't ever be able to come back.  The first part was true, but the second part is still up in the air.  The supply situation has gotten a bit better now that Rangoon is in Allied hands and the Burma Road is open.[/align] [/align]"I did think that you withdrew troops from China - whether they originally came from Manchuria or not I don't know - in order to bolster your Pacific garrisons.  I could tell that you seriously drew down the garrisons at Liuchow, Hengyang, Changsha, and Changteh.  [/align] [/align]"I don't know how many units you have in China, but I hope to be able to reclaim a few of the cities I've lost.  I doubt I'll get very far, but I think the game is more balanced if China is active.[/align] [/align]"If you think the resumption of hostilities in China is unfair, let me know.  I wasn't under the impression that the Allies couldn't go on the offensive again, but if you feel like my doing so has put you at an unfair disadvantage I'll give it some thought."[/align] [/align]Moulmein:  On the plus side, an Allied sub put two TT into already damaged CA Aoba.  Hopefully that will finish her off (and make acceptable the loss of BC Renown).  On the minus side, the Allied deliberate attack failed (though the Japanese took 3x casualties), so I'll need to rest my troops a couple of days before trying again.[/align] [/align]DEI:  For the first time, Allied 4EB hit the port facilities at Babeldaob.  Since this port has been within 4EB range for more than a year without any Allied strikes, Miller can perhaps be excused for overlooking the possibility of one at this late date...but paid for it.  There wasn't any CAP and the bombers roughed up a sizeable number of ships including three DD, AS, two AD, one ACM, four xAK, and two E-class.  Many of these ships took five or six hits, and one DD and an xAK were confirmed sunk. 
[/align]