Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Miller

"...I got a message from someone on the Matrix forums a while back saying you were concerned I was stripping China of units and sending them elsewhere......."

Hmm, this worries me a bit. For Miller to receive info from a reader about my thoughts is a bit troubling. I am sure it was an innocent comment not made to provide "intel," but Miller could have deduced from that my concerns that he was stripping China and, ergo, that I intended to go on the offensive.

[JohnDillworth]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

"...I got a message from someone on the Matrix forums a while back saying you were concerned I was stripping China of units and sending them elsewhere......."



Hmm, this worries me a bit. For Miller to receive info from a reader about my thoughts is a bit troubling. I am sure it was an innocent comment not made to provide "intel," but Miller could have deduced from that my concerns that he was stripping China and, ergo, that I intended to go on the offensive.

Sorry for the silly question. I love after action reports, this one is my favorite. What keeps your opponent from reading the after action reports himself? I never understood how this worked?
thanks for indulging me

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

What keeps your opponent from reading the after action reports himself?

Integrity.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Integrity.

...and what a lovely word and characteristic it is! Very common amongst the AE community, but increasingly rare in the world today.

P.S. I've known my opponent a long time and have complete faith in his integrity, which is why I post in detail in an AAR and didn't even ask him not to read it when we started. I just knew he wouldn't.

[JohnDillworth]

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Integrity.



...and what a lovely word and characteristic it is! Very common amongst the AE community, but increasingly rare in the world today.

P.S. I've known my opponent a long time and have complete faith in his integrity, which is why I post in detail in an AAR and didn't even ask him not to read it when we started. I just knew he wouldn't.

I was hoping for that answer. Can't say it enough. Great bunch of people on this board.

BTW, could you guys play faster? I really want to know where the KB is!

[crsutton]

There are bound to be some slip ups-especially when it is an active AAR and readers are commenting on both AARs.  However, Miller does not have an AAR.......

[Canoerebel]

Miller has requested a three-day period to organize his troops in China.  He thought there was a ceasefire in effect.  I didn't think there was a ceasefire in effect.  In fact, I had told him when he stood down operations that I would go back on the offensive if I could.  But since he was under that impression, I understand how the sudden Allied attack wouldn't seem kosher.  So instead of three days I'm going to give him...two weeks?  Does that seem fair?  Or should I make it three?  Or four?
 
There are problems for the Chinese in this.  I was counting on the element of surprise to really hammer the Japanese, but now he knows where the attacks are coming.  In fact, he may well be able to go on the offensive almost immediately.  But I prefer that to doing something unfair.
 
Miller's other concern is Allied 4EB.  I don't think he knows just how "tired" my units are, how many planes are out of service, and how high my ops losses are.  Also, my 4EB are not very effective when facing decent CAP.  Also, the fact that we're fighting in the DEI where there are so many bases is an advantage because I can put so many aircraft into the air (he can too).  If we were fighting in CenPac this would be the case.
 
So, I'm not positive at this point whether Allied 4EB are non-historic in AE.  Perhaps had the Allies focused on the DEI, as I've done, they would have been similarly employed.  I don't know that, but I'm just wondering.  If, indeed, 4EB are too common and too durable, a few tweaks to the system could address that.
 
I think the Allied onslaught of late has Miller a bit shell-shocked and demoralized, just as I have been at different points in the game.  But he's probably stronger than he realizes, and I'm probably weaker than he realizes.  As for points, he's up by 11,000, so I've still got a long way to go.

[FOW]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Miller has requested a three-day period to organize his troops in China.  He thought there was a ceasefire in effect.  I didn't think there was a ceasefire in effect.  In fact, I had told him when he stood down operations that I would go back on the offensive if I could.  But since he was under that impression, I understand how the sudden Allied attack wouldn't seem kosher.  So instead of three days I'm going to give him...two weeks?  Does that seem fair?  Or should I make it three?  Or four?

Just because there is a cease-fire does not absolve the commander from properly deploying his troops in a defensive posture. A bad mistake by Miller, that you are letting him off the hook for - and disadvantageous to your offensive.

Perhaps it points to problems in Imperial Command HQ that the DEI offensive has captured their attention to the detriment of other theatres (Burma and now China being the recent manifestations of this).

[Panther Bait]

If he really hasn't been raiding China for troops, then I don't blame Miller for not keeping up with China under the assumption of a cease fire.  It's probably somewhat a matter of real-life time management to skip closely reviewing China every turn to see of the Chinese have moved troops around and figuring a counter.  With a one-year old, and another on the way, I can appreciate the appeal of time management.
 
That being said, I would think 1 to 2 weeks is enough time for him to at least partially respond to the Chinese moves while still giving you some benefits of a "surprise" attack.
 
Mike

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents, as it helps to get some feedback from "neutral" folks.  I'm leaning toward giving Miller two weeks, but I won't finish the turn for several hours in case anybody else has an opinion.  I'd especially appreciate hearing from anybody who thinks that two weeks isn't enough.
 
I can see this from my point of view and I can see it from Miller's point of view so I want to err on the side not taking unfair advantage.
 
With that in mind, I may need to reconsider how and even if the Chinese will attack.  I would still like to move toward the coast, but it may be better to do so further south, from the Nanning area.  Don't know what I'll do yet.
 
As for the DEI, recon shows several important bases lightly held with zero level airfields, meaning that Miller is cobbling together defenses to prevent assault by paratroops.  So the door is open to several bases on Mindanao and the islands to the south, but I'm not sure yet whether I want to stick my nose out that far.  Still debating between that and the much closer, but much more complex, invasion of Ternate, with a definate lean towards that.

[Canoerebel]

Much has been said in other threads dedicated to the DEI.  As one who has assaulted through the DEI in both WitP and in AE, a few words now that I'm this deeply into the game:
 
1.  One disadvantage to a major Allied concentration on the DEI is the distance to the big West Coast and Pearl Harbor shipyards.  Sydney can handle everything up through CA, CVL, and CVE, but the CV and BB have to make the very long journey home.  For instance, Prince of Wales, Indiana, and Washington took light to moderate damage, but they'll be absent from theater for about four or five months.  That's not a decisive factor, in my opinion, but you need to bear it in mind.
 
2.  A major advantage to a DEI concentration is, as everybody knows, the abundance of bases and potential bases.  This can mutually benefit both sides many ways, but the Allies have one advantage in the ability to employ massed 4EB against a wide selection of important targets.  This is of considerable benefit and can really drive a Japanese player nuts.
 
3.  On the flip side, the Japanese Netty can be a real pain in the neck, though my experience is that bombers don't "like" to bypass forward bases strongly protected by CAP to strike at distant targets, so there is some freedom and security in ships moving along interior channels.  A good for instance is the Torres Strait between Oz and New Guinea.  I took and built up Merauke (NG's south coast) into a stout base with three or four fighters squadrons providing CAP.  I did the same thing at Horn Island, Portland Roads, and Coen.  As a result, Japanese bombers at places like Rabaul, Lae, and Port Moresby never flew a single mission against the vast amount of Allied shipping that transited the Straits.
 
4.  While the DEI can be a tough route to take, I am more convinced than ever that it offers the best way for the Allied player to close with the enemy and engage in hand-to-hand fighting.  By mid-43 and and later, attrition is a great thing and benefits the Allies.  It's like Grant vs. Lee in the Wilderness and at Spotsylvania.  Even if Grant takes more casualties, he can afford them; Lee can't.  And, if you get a big jump on the Japanese player (ala Q-Ball) it's even more decisive.  Either way, though, the Allied player is advancing right into the vitals and then can swing north for the Philippines, which in some ways is even more vital to Japan than is Java and Borneo.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, gents, as it helps to get some feedback from "neutral" folks.  I'm leaning toward giving Miller two weeks, but I won't finish the turn for several hours in case anybody else has an opinion.  I'd especially appreciate hearing from anybody who thinks that two weeks isn't enough.

I can see this from my point of view and I can see it from Miller's point of view so I want to err on the side not taking unfair advantage.

With that in mind, I may need to reconsider how and even if the Chinese will attack.  I would still like to move toward the coast, but it may be better to do so further south, from the Nanning area.  Don't know what I'll do yet.

FWIW, I think if he offered three days, you could have honorably given him three days. Anything you give him more than he asked for is gravy, and probably to your detriment.

That said, if you do give him more than his three days, the China theater is ON, and you are under NO obligation to then march your men into this guns under your prior, now-uncovered, strategy. If he expends time, energy, supplies, and disruption moving forces back to China to meet you, fine. Let him. Choose then how and where you will attack under this new set of assumptions. You're under no obligation to proceed with attacks you planned BEFORE he got 2-3 "free" weeks. And he has no grounds to whine that you changed your attack plan after he rushed back into the Chinese theater.

You would, for example, be completely within your rights to do nothing in China now for six months or longer; it's up to him whether he wants to camp his retrieved forces there or risk moving them out to sea again. As you've said, giving away China as a theater is massively to the Japanese player's advantage. He should not have counted on this being the case for the rest of the game. He already got 1-year-plus worth of freebies.

[JohnDillworth]

4. While the DEI can be a tough route to take, I am more convinced than ever that it offers the best way for the Allied player to close with the enemy and engage in hand-to-hand fighting. By mid-43 and and later, attrition is a great thing and benefits the Allies. It's like Grant vs. Lee in the Wilderness and at Spotsylvania. Even if Grant takes more casualties, he can afford them; Lee can't. And, if you get a big jump on the Japanese player (ala Q-Ball) it's even more decisive. Either way, though, the Allied player is advancing right into the vitals and then can swing north for the Philippines, which in some ways is even more vital to Japan than is Java and Borneo.

Grant had it figured out. "I can't spare the man, he fights" as Linclon said. The time for the "Anaconda" has arrived. Offensive actions on all fronts. You don't have to win each battle, you just have to keep making battles. He can't be everywhere, you can.

[bklooste]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Much has been said in other threads dedicated to the DEI.  As one who has assaulted through the DEI in both WitP and in AE, a few words now that I'm this deeply into the game:

1.  One disadvantage to a major Allied concentration on the DEI is the distance to the big West Coast and Pearl Harbor shipyards.  Sydney can handle everything up through CA, CVL, and CVE, but the CV and BB have to make the very long journey home.  For instance, Prince of Wales, Indiana, and Washington took light to moderate damage, but they'll be absent from theater for about four or five months.  That's not a decisive factor, in my opinion, but you need to bear it in mind.

2.  A major advantage to a DEI concentration is, as everybody knows, the abundance of bases and potential bases.  This can mutually benefit both sides many ways, but the Allies have one advantage in the ability to employ massed 4EB against a wide selection of important targets.  This is of considerable benefit and can really drive a Japanese player nuts.

3.  On the flip side, the Japanese Netty can be a real pain in the neck, though my experience is that bombers don't "like" to bypass forward bases strongly protected by CAP to strike at distant targets, so there is some freedom and security in ships moving along interior channels.  A good for instance is the Torres Strait between Oz and New Guinea.  I took and built up Merauke (NG's south coast) into a stout base with three or four fighters squadrons providing CAP.  I did the same thing at Horn Island, Portland Roads, and Coen.  As a result, Japanese bombers at places like Rabaul, Lae, and Port Moresby never flew a single mission against the vast amount of Allied shipping that transited the Straits.

4.  While the DEI can be a tough route to take, I am more convinced than ever that it offers the best way for the Allied player to close with the enemy and engage in hand-to-hand fighting.  By mid-43 and and later, attrition is a great thing and benefits the Allies.  It's like Grant vs. Lee in the Wilderness and at Spotsylvania.  Even if Grant takes more casualties, he can afford them; Lee can't.  And, if you get a big jump on the Japanese player (ala Q-Ball) it's even more decisive.  Either way, though, the Allied player is advancing right into the vitals and then can swing north for the Philippines, which in some ways is even more vital to Japan than is Java and Borneo.

I agree with this and as a Japanese players it means I will defend the DEI route the most ..

[paullus99]

They are fairly restricted waters though, which gives the Japanese player the option of flooding it with subs - on the off chance they can use their more effective torpedoes against capital ships (and with lots of airbases around, it can make for a major furball as well).

But, I will agree that it is also a giant meatgrinder that the Japanese player can not afford to either fight or lose - but they have to, to prevent the loss of their major oil centers (or at least access to them).

After reading many of these AAR's, I'm convinced that too many Allied players tried to do too much, with too little (exposing isolated parts of their fleet to a concentrated Japanese counterstrike) - and not concentrating overwhelming power at the point of the spear. The Allies can afford to lose a big carrier battle (probably two or three of them) and keep coming back for more. The Japanese player can't afford to lose even one of them (I think the Grant vs. Lee analogy is very apt in these circumstances).

[Nemo121]

I think that if he gave a ceasefire when he didn't have to and truly thought there was a ceasefire then he should get as long as he needs to re-adjust... I know that if I offered an opponent a ceasefire and then found them "violating" it I'd be probably just concede the game at that point and leave.

With that said I don't think any of this was intentional in this game but since he stopped his assaults when he had every opportunity to push your forces in China into extinction then I think he deserves some allowances in return.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Miller has requested a three-day period to organize his troops in China.  He thought there was a ceasefire in effect.  I didn't think there was a ceasefire in effect.  In fact, I had told him when he stood down operations that I would go back on the offensive if I could.  But since he was under that impression, I understand how the sudden Allied attack wouldn't seem kosher.  So instead of three days I'm going to give him...two weeks?  Does that seem fair?  Or should I make it three?  Or four?

There are problems for the Chinese in this.  I was counting on the element of surprise to really hammer the Japanese, but now he knows where the attacks are coming.  In fact, he may well be able to go on the offensive almost immediately.  But I prefer that to doing something unfair.

Miller's other concern is Allied 4EB.  I don't think he knows just how "tired" my units are, how many planes are out of service, and how high my ops losses are.  Also, my 4EB are not very effective when facing decent CAP.  Also, the fact that we're fighting in the DEI where there are so many bases is an advantage because I can put so many aircraft into the air (he can too).  If we were fighting in CenPac this would be the case.

So, I'm not positive at this point whether Allied 4EB are non-historic in AE.  Perhaps had the Allies focused on the DEI, as I've done, they would have been similarly employed.  I don't know that, but I'm just wondering.  If, indeed, 4EB are too common and too durable, a few tweaks to the system could address that.

I think the Allied onslaught of late has Miller a bit shell-shocked and demoralized, just as I have been at different points in the game.  But he's probably stronger than he realizes, and I'm probably weaker than he realizes.  As for points, he's up by 11,000, so I've still got a long way to go.

I am playing scen #2 as well. It is almost Sept 42 in my game. I have no fighters, no medium bombers (and it does not look like I ever will), my P38s look pretty average and I don't get any anyways. My opponent has total air superiorty when he wants it and is pushing me around OZ. He is building tojos like there is no tomorrow and has a monsterous pilot pool and can train up more pilots than I can ever hope.

Now, the one bright silver lining is my heavy bombers are fairly immune from fighters and doing a good job. Somehow, I just can't get myself to feel guilty about that......[;)]

[Cornstar]

Canoerebel,

Just a quick thanks from a complete newb for this great AAR. It's not often I plough through 45 pages! I'm still scratching my head over why things happen as they do in the Coral Sea scenario, but your AAR gives a much deeper insight into the overall way this game is supposed to be played.

Manuals explain how a game works, the mechanics. The small scenario's teach me how to perform a landing, or disrupt one. Your AAR explains me why I should try a landing, or not, on both a tactical and strategic scale. Thanks again for making this game much more accessible for new clueless players.

Keep up the good work!

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I am playing scen #2 as well. It is almost Sept 42 in my game. I have no fighters, no medium bombers (and it does not look like I ever will), my P38s look pretty average and I don't get any anyways. My opponent has total air superiorty when he wants it and is pushing me around OZ. He is building tojos like there is no tomorrow and has a monsterous pilot pool and can train up more pilots than I can ever hope.

Now, the one bright silver lining is my heavy bombers are fairly immune from fighters and doing a good job. Somehow, I just can't get myself to feel guilty about that......[;)]

It's actually encouraging to hear these things, crsutton. If you were having a much easier time of it than I did it would suggest I had really screwed up. But that you're basically in the same boat I was suggests that some of my woes are just the nature of the Scenario Two beasty.

I'm in January '44 and the Japanese still rule the skies in all but two situations: (1) Allied 4EB are effective "fighters" and (2) Allied CAP does pretty well over their own base when enemy strikes come from fairly distant.

But as far as CAP over carriers, or Allied 2EB and fighter strikes over enemy bases? Forget it.

4EB replacements do some very weird things. By late '43 you don't get any B-17s, B-25s or B-26s. You get some A-26 and a decent number of B-24J, but that's it. My supply of American bombers seems pretty iffy.

Since Scenario Two seems to mean that the Japanese rule the skies, and since the Japanese Army is as large as the Allied Army, it seems that the achilles heel for the Japanese player is his fleet. He doesn't have a wealth of capital ships, so punishing carriers, battleships and cruisers may be one area where the Allies can attain a significant advantage.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
I think that if he gave a ceasefire when he didn't have to and truly thought there was a ceasefire then he should get as long as he needs to re-adjust... I know that if I offered an opponent a ceasefire and then found them "violating" it I'd be probably just concede the game at that point and leave.

With that said I don't think any of this was intentional in this game but since he stopped his assaults when he had every opportunity to push your forces in China into extinction then I think he deserves some allowances in return.

I gave him two weeks.

He declared a ceasefire unilaterally (on his own and without my request or approval) because the Chinese were folding. I told him at the time that I didn't want one and that the Chinese would attack if an when they could. Still, I prefer to err on the side of accomodating Miller since he definately felt on his part that a ceasefire was in effect.