Basejumping the Learning Cliff - Cribtop(J) v DSwain(A) No DSwain Pls

[Cribtop]

Screenshot of the Kuching Invasion and the situation in Borneo as of Jan 16, 1942:





1 - Path of Kuching Invasion. Unit bar shows task forces present. KBL hovers just to the North.

2 - AKE headed for Cam Ranh Bay to reload BBs after conclusion of Op TK.

3 - Kendari Invasion, escorted by Sulu Sea Sqdn and an LCTF. The second Amphib TF is the other two brigades of 38th Div, which will be used to assist in the reduction of Cagayan.

4 - Super sub I-155 sinks two merchies in the deadly strait between Billiton and Toboali, then thumbs her nose at the escorting DDs.

[Cribtop]

Sorry for the lack of posts in the last few days. As usual, when RL puts time pressure on me, I prioritize cranking turns rather than posting to the AAR. Later this week will see postings for Jan 17, 18, 19 and perhaps 20th. Without question the most interesting days of the war so far.

[Ketza]

Dswain is an excellent player that does indeed love to mass ships and planes. My favorite game of pbem in WITP was against him as he was the only player to ever crack my fortress Java. By the end of March 1942 we had both lost close to 1500 planes in and around the island. It was a monumental battle I will never forget.

[Cribtop]

Ketza,

That's both very cool and rather intimidating!

A few hints on the action to come:

1) We find out where DSwain's CVs are and pay the price for not knowing.

2) The price we pay is less than it probably should have been due to some good luck.

3) Somebody's CV soaks up two torpedo hits.

4) We win more major victories in China.

[Cribtop]

Jan 17, 1942

Ok, here we go... fasten your seatbelts!

Subs

I-157 is DC'd after attacking DD Mahan in the Java Sea. Neither torps nor depth charges hit. The sub spots DDs and AOs in the TF. If only we had spotted this force yesterday (read on). Pike hits but no bang on an ASW TF near Port Arthur.

SE Fleet

Operation LP is in full swing today. Milne Bay and Lae are invaded. KB fails to launch against three AKs near Port Moresby.

16th Army

Zeros from Davao LRCAP Manado and slaughter unescorted Hudsons. At least seven planes are shot down.

We had just finished chortling from this ambush when a Devastator was spotted over our invasion fleet at Kuching. There is nothing like the feeling of ice and adrenaline entering your veins simultaneously as you realize that the enemy has you dead to rights. As we later realize, ALL of DSwain's USN CVs (except maybe Yorktown) and 1 British CV have moved into position in the Java Sea and are waiting to pounce on our Kuching invasion. [:(] A massive raid in the AM phase does significant damage. Then we begin to get lucky as a storm in the hex significantly reduces the effectiveness of the PM phase raid. Our Netties remain on the fields in Saigon and KBL also fails to launch a raid despite being in range. The butcher's bill (so far) is 1 DD, 4 DMS and 3 xAK sunk.

Despite this catastrophe, most of the troops manage to get ashore. The presence of both China Sea and Siam Squadrons helped immensely as the BBs soaked up bombs that bounced off with minimal effect. Obviously, we have to do some thinking at Cribtop HQ. While deployment of DSwain's CVs to the DEI in general terms was anticipated (see recent posts), we are surprised to see CVs this early in the DEI.

25th Army

Somewhat to our surprise, the enemy's LBA do not return to Kuala Lumpur.

China

Direct attack in the Sinyang Kessel: 24:1 odds; casualties are 3215(59) vs. 479(5) in our favor. Allied adjusted AV here is down to 30. [:D]

[Cribtop]

Jan 18, 1942

A day of torture… The Battle of Kuching, day 2

Subs

I-164 sinks AM Finch near Singapore. I-122 is DC’d and sunk outright by the enemy’s CV escorts. [:(] We hated to risk losing a precious minelaying sub, but there is no higher value target in the game than a carrier. So be it.

S-40 finishes the dying APD Aoi as it tries (against orders) to flee Kuching. Seawolf is DC’d by DDs escorting Shoho and Taiho, whose TF is ferrying land based fighters to Ternate. The enemy never spots our CVLs – DSwain doesn’t know how close he came…

SE Fleet

Buna is invaded while Lae, Milne Bay and Terapo all fall, the last due to air assault as planned. Enemy merchants are sighted at PM, but KB fails to launch. PM will be bombarded and invaded tomorrow. An SS screen moves into place between PM and Oz.

16th Army

Tapul is occupied. China Sea Squadron, fleeing Kuching (see below), runs over and sinks xAKL Bisayos. That about does it for the good news, but I am compelled to keep reporting…

After much thought, we array our forces at Kuching as follows: KBL withdraws towards Saigon to be further under the LBA umbrella. Our other major assets flee to all points of the compass at full speed. Siam Sqdn towards Soc Trang, China Sea Sqdn towards Cam Ranh Bay, and the invasion TF towards Brunei. We leave a small TF of dying escorts and two xAKs still loaded with troops in the hopes they will offload in the night phase. Cribtop intel believes DSwain is most likely to hold position or to move parallel to the western coast of Borneo as it minimizes danger from Netties.

As it turns out, the enemy does indeed hold position - smart IMHO as he steers clear of Netty torp range. The results are bad, but frankly better than we deserve. The TF at Kuching fails to unload as their commander “retreats due to damage” – apparently he missed the suicide mission memo. These ships, along with 400 troops, die quickly in the AM air phase. In retrospect, if we had left two healthy PBs instead of the sinking escorts, these units may have gotten ashore. Lesson learned. Miraculously, no other losses are incurred (until tomorrow anyway ).

Elsewhere, we agonize over whether to send the Kendari invasion to its target or withdraw. After some calculations on where the enemy’s CVs could end up, we order the ships to proceed. They blunder into PGs Tulsa and Asheville 4 hexes NE of Kendari. The patrol boats are no match for our heavies in Sulu Sea Sqdn, but DSwain now is fully aware of what we’re up to.

25th Army

Kuantan falls. We build up the Kuala Lumpur airfield (need lvl 3 so the Nates can use drop tanks to reach Singers) while the army marches on Malacca. The enemy is falling back on Singapore with all dispatch.

China

Wenchow falls to two NCPC units. We discover after it falls we don’t have enough garrison AV. [:@]

We bomb and deliberate assault the Sinyang Kessel. 27:1 odds, casualties 1073(84) vs 247(0). 21st Group Army HQ surrenders. The defenders here are eating rats, but it takes time to clean up an army outside of a base hex.

[Cribtop]

Jan 19, 1942

Heavy losses and a major victory... The Battle of Kuching, day 3

Subs

CL Tama, limping towards Miri in quasi-sinking condition, is finished off by SS KXV. The CL was probably doomed anyway, but it stinks to lose the first ship above DD size in the war. KBL's escorts depth charge KXI near Saigon - a relief this sub didn't get off an attack! [;)]

We vector every sub in the area towards the projected path of DSwain's CVs. I-165 misses DDs escorting the carriers but escapes unscathed. I-158 is DC'd and takes one real hit in the Java Sea. It appears this TF is the enemy's oiler fleet. The sub will make it, but must withdraw to Saigon.

And then... CV Lexington appears in the periscope of I-121, and two torpedoes strike home! Banzai! [&o] Revenge for her sister sub and a major ding in an enemy capital ship. The hits don't appear fatal, but clearly aren't fog of war, as the Lex is spotted later in the turn separated from the other enemy CVs. I awake my wife and dogs with my full-throated Banzai yell. Oops. [:-]

SE Fleet

Our bombardment TF encounters three xAKs at PM and sinks them, but this reduces the effectiveness of the bombardment (51 airfield hits, 29 port, 194 casualties). We had created a smaller SCTF to try to get there first, but no joy. Tokyo Rose claims we sank the whole Allied navy. A DD and an xAK strike mines at PM. The DD sinks and the merchie is probably a lost cause, but she unloads her troops first. Other than the mines, the invasion goes in like clockwork.

Salamua is occupied, Buna falls.

16th Army

The joy of the torpedoing of the Lexington fades as the sun rises. DSwain has moved his CVs along the Borneo coast towards Miri. This means all our warship TFs escape but he pounds the invasion fleet. Total losses are rough: DDs Okikaze and Nokaze, 1 CM, 2 PB and 9 xAK(L) are all sunk. We have over 100 Netties scouring the seas; the vast majority launch but are unable to locate the target. Only 19 attack over two phases. Torpedo runs on both Enterprise and Saratoga fail to score any hits. The enemy CAP of 5 (five!) planes is swept aside. If only more bombers had made it to the target we may have hit both these CVs and turned a defeat into a major triumph. As it is, we have at least knocked out 25% of the enemy's CVs for a good while, especially given the lack of large/safe shipyards in the region.

And then the frustration is compounded. The Kendari invasion engages 6 PTs and then three Dutch DDs (Evertsen, Witte de With & Van Nes). One PT is sunk and both enemy TFs are chased off. Later in the turn, both enemy TFs come back. Although Evertsen & Van Nes are sunk and Witte mortally wounded, the constant enemy attacks cause the invasion TF to flee without unloading! [:@] Other Japanese ships find and finish off the mortally wounded PG Asheville, but this is small consolation for the botched invasion retreating in the face of inferior forces.

16th Army AO has really been fun these last few days. [8|]

China

China provides a salve for what ails us at Cribtop HQ. We attack the Sinyang kessel again; 6:1 odds, casualties 4587(427) vs 399(1).

At Loyang, we finish swapping out two depleted independent regiments for two fresh independent brigades. Today is the first of what we anticipate will be several deliberate assaults required to take the city. Cribtop HQ erupts in cheers, however, as we reduce forts to zero and achieve an unexpected 3:1! Loyang falls! Banzai! [&o] 26 enemy LCUs are wrecked and forced to retreat, casualties are 25837(1580) vs 1811(5). A resounding victory that utterly smashes the KMT in north China. We have only to seize Nanyang to achieve our war aims on this front, and that city is loosely held by only eight LCUs.

I love China, I really do.

[Cribtop]

Jan 20, 1942

The end of the Battle of Kuching - thank goodness!

Subs

We hear unexplained sinking noises in the night phase. We have hopes it's the Lexington, but lack of CAG losses in the daily report after the replay indicate it was probably the fiercely burning Witte de With.

SE Fleet

Nadzab occupied. All the occupations around Lae get Cribtop HQ thinking. We will seize Wau by air assault if necessary as that will probably cause the PM garrison to surrender rather than retreat. We continue to unload supplies and allow our troops' disruption to drop. In the meantime Netties from Rabaul and Kates from KB pound enemy ground forces to increase their DIS.

14th Army

We try a bombardment attack at Clark, but enemy AV is STILL going up. We will send some CLs and DDs to patrol near Bataan to make sure DSwain isn't slipping in supplies. IJAAF bombers pound the empty Clark Field each turn to force supply expenditure. The AF is up to 60+ damage and climbing.

16th Army

Mercifully, the enemy CVs withdraw, apparently toward Batavia. This is further evidence that Lex really did take hits. An elaborate effort to catch the damaged CV with subs, LBA and KBL lurking within 9 hexes of her anticipated retreat route comes to naught. KBL does launch a small raid and sink xAKL Meroendang, along with possibly an HDML hit by a searching Jake. These ships were about 6 hexes off Kuantan. Why are they wandering in a major battle zone? An "underground railroad" supply effort returning from Bataan? Picket ships suicidally protecting Lex? Odd. IJAAF bombers were on NavSearch/Nav Attack out of Khota Baru, hoping more to find the enemy and attrit his CAP than to do any damage. With the enemy CVs fleeing, all this achieves is a raid into Singapore's hex that attacks and misses several fat xAP and xAK at the cost of 3 Oscars. Hurricanes make up part of the CAP - more proof DSwain is determined to stand fast in the DEI. Is the enemy pulling troops from Singers or reinforcing the position? Recon indicates the former is more likely, but we shall see soon enough.

Frankly, we are just glad the enemy is gone. Time to take stock. Our troops ashore at Kuching outnumber the enemy, but are having trouble reducing DIS due to lack of supply. Subs and transport A/C are mobilized to help with this. The subs can even pull supply from nearby Miri. The enemy is flying in a small LCU to reinforce his garrison, however. Kuching may take a while.

The enemy's withdrawal is a blessing, as Siam Sqdn burned all her fuel getting to Soc Trang. These heavies were pinned here as a result until the enemy left. We can now slip in an oiler and siphon enough fuel to get them to Cam Ranh Bay. Speaking of Cam Ranh Bay, all IJN shipping here fled to Samah at high speed the day after the enemy CVs initiated the Battle of Kuching. They will now return home and disband.

We agonize over Kendari. Our ships started the turn in the hex, but hadn't unloaded. An enemy TF with 9 BB/CL is "reported" moving SE away from Kuching. Cribtop Intel believes this is a false report. If this was an SCTF, it could have intervened yesterday as the encounter with enemy PGs on the 18th more than tipped our hand. Further, massive SCTF were spotted accompanying the enemy CVs near Kuching, and the Allies only have so many ships. Still, there is a chance this is the USN/KNIL cruiser sqdn. In the end, we decide to withdraw a few hexes and LRCAP the TF from Manado. If the enemy is real, he will move into Kendari and our Netties may hit him. If not, we can always go back tomorrow. Still, the risk to this invasion is growing. Cribtop HQ strongly considers withdrawal, but decides on balance the risk is worth this critical base. Kendari will allow us to extend an LBA umbrella over the whole eastern DEI. Further, we want to prove both to ourselves and to DSwain that Kuching has not blunted our aggressiveness. Why this factor is important I'm not sure, but my gut tells me it is - and I listen to my gut when it is this insistent. The initiative will remain with Japan.

As our ships withdraw, Sulu Sea Sqdn encounters the troublesome enemy PTs. One gets off a shot at CA Myoko but misses. Myoko shoots back and obliterates her assailant. The remaining 3 PTs flee.

China

Yet another DA in the Sinyang Kessel yields 1724(240) vs 280(0) casualties. Only one enemy corps (85th) has any AV left in the replays. Our troops have built up some DIS, so we will back off and let the bombers and artillery rough up this lone unit in the hopes that a subsequent attack will finish the whole force.

We begin to reorganize elsewhere. In Loyang, the three Divs that took Chengchow and Loyang will rest a few days. The two fresh brigades, together with other forces formerly holding the line, will advance on the 5 enemy units 1 hex west of Chengchow and try to smash them before they can escape. The 26 ruined units west of Loyang would take forever to reduce in a non-base hex, so we will try to show our armor is moving to cut them off in the hopes of forcing them to retreat towards Sian. We will post a screenie of this front soon.

[Cribtop]

Jan 21, 1942

Subs

Acting on intel from KB, I-24 hunts down and sinks xAK Fiona near Cairns.

O 24 is DC'd without effect by Sulu Sea Sqdn. Trout hits no bang on an xAK near Shikuka.

SE Fleet

Finschafen occupied. The Op LP invasion TF leaves PM, and the mine damaged xAK sinks as it does so. 1 DD and 1 xAK are the only losses from the conquest of the Solomons and eastern NG so far. Amazing how well the ops go when the enemy doesn't oppose them. [8|] We bomb and Deliberate attack at PM, 1:1 odds, forts reduced to 2, casualties 789(18) vs. 157(1). This base will fall soon.

16th Army

Sulu Sea Sqdn sweeps aside enemy PTs and the Kendari invasion goes in successfully. The PTs return later and lose one of their number for no hits. Enemy Hudsons and Banshees attack the invasion force and hit 3 xAKs. Cribtop HQ forgot to set the TF as the LRCAP target for our Zeros at Manado, so these attacks go in free when they would have been slaughtered. [:@] Our ships will depart tomorrow for safer waters. Enemy LCU resistance is light and the base should fall to the first or second attack. We brought along 1 Bde of 38th Div and 2 base forces.

25th Army

We slog towards Malacca.

Burma

15th Army is almost to Moulmein. We will need to shift IJAAF assets to assist with this push, so Oscars in Luzon begin moving West.

China

The large enemy concentration at Kukong has sat passively for two weeks now. Canton is reconned but we are not concerned, as reinforcements are now close enough to intervene if DSwain launches an offensive.

There is now an unbroken line of IJA forces stretching from Foochow to the border of Outer Mongolia (well, 2 hexes short of the border, but we'll fix that soon). Only one ruined enemy LCU is behind this line, and that unit is subjected to daily bombings and will die on the vine. We bomb and bombard the Sinyang Kessel while our troops rest.

[Cribtop]

Jan 22, 1942

Caught up at last! A good day for the Empire.

Subs

Nada - a quiet turn perhaps after all the recent action?

SE Fleet

DA at PM achieves 1:1 odds, forts drop to 1, casualties 206(4) vs 294(0). We take a few more losses than the enemy, but one more attack should do it. We will air assault Wau tomorrow to try to force a surrender at PM.

16th Army

Davao and Manila hit lvl 4 airfields on the same day. Our retreating invasion force is harassed by Swordfish, no doubt from CVL Hermes. Our LRCAP fails again, and 1 xAK is sunk while another is damaged. The rest of the ships should make it home.

More importantly, Kendari falls to the first assault. Banzai! [&o] This important base is taken and our decision to go ahead with the invasion is thus justified. We will move the Air HQ and Netties from Davao to Kendari asap. Odds are 8:1, casualties 239(51) vs 179(0). Several enemy ships are caught in harbor and a few Banshees and Hudsons are overrun along with the base. Extra goodness!

25th Army

We reach Malacca - it will fall tomorrow. A huge sweep by Oscars, Tojos and Nates fails to launch against Singapore due to storms in the target hex. Tomorrow we try again.

China

Another unexpected victory with the first DA in the hex west of Chengchow. 5 enemy corps are caught trying to escape in move mode and wrecked by 3 Japanese Brigades that just arrived in the hex. 4:1 odds, casualties 3937(822) vs 1366(6). DSwain's ground losses in China have been huge. While there are always more squads, we are now up to 31 LCU in north China that are combat ineffective, 2 that have surrendered, and 6 more that will surrender. That's a lot even for the Chinese to swallow, especially since the Japanese forces that won these victories are practically unscathed. A second supply convoy heads from Tokyo to north China as we want to ensure enough supplies to seize Nanyang.

See screenie below:



1 - Loyang taken; 31 defeated enemy LCU lick their wounds to the West.

2 - Japanese armor moves to cut them off; more an effort to force a retreat than to encircle the enemy.

3 - Site of the latest battle, in which 3 IJA Brigades defeated 5 Chinese corps.

4 - The Sinyang Kessel.

5 - Reinforcements move up to the front to assist with the capture of Nanyang.

[Cribtop]

Abbreviations

We are employing a few new abbreviations lately. Here is a listing:

DA = Deliberate Attack

SA = Shock Attack

BA = Bombardment Attack

Dud or duds = A torpedo that hits but does not explode; a/k/a "hit no bang."

Rod & Reel Op = Dropping paras on an empty base with at least a lvl 1 airfield with the intention of pulling the unit back to the point of origin immediately thereafter (think of casting a reel while fishing).

[Cribtop]

Jan 23, 1942

Subs

I-157 guns xAKL Benkoelen near Bandjermasin. The enemy is left heavily damaged but doesn’t sink yet. The skipper refuses to torpedo her. Porpoise duds DD Sawakaze in the Solomon Sea.

We begin sub transport missions to Kuching. Two subs get 48 tons of supplies ashore and return to Miri. Two more, outbound from Saigon, will arrive soon and then re-base to Miri. Thereafter, we should get 48 tons every other day give or take. Our troops’ supplies and AV are going up while DIS is going down. We should be able to attempt a DA soon. We are also trying to fly in supplies using transports from Miri, but I’m not sure this works as we don’t own the base at Kuching. Anyone know?

Cribtop HQ is substantially re-organizing its sub patrols. See the analysis post that follows for details.

4th Fleet

Reinforcements will arrive at Truk soon. In company with SE Fleet and using 4th Fleet (3CL & 6DD) as an LCTF, these forces will seize Baker and Canton. Recon confirms Canton is occupied only by the small USN base force that starts the war there, and for better or worse we know DSwain's CVs are in the DEI.

SE Fleet

SA Port Moresby: 11:1 odds, forts dropped to zero and PM falls. Banzai! Casualties are 1850(294) vs almost nil for us. The base force surrenders but the infantry units flee NW towards Siador (dot base north of Lae). We seize Wau by air assault but given the retreat from PM this was a wasted effort. The paras will be pulled back to Rabaul for a rod & reel op to take Gasmata. I question whether the enemy could trace an LoC to Siador under the circumstances, but on the other hand there would be nothing to stop the Aussies from fleeing into the jungle once PM fell even if we owned Siador, so we won’t complain.

Operation LP must on the whole be considered a smashing success. All objectives were taken with nominal losses. We re-base a recon unit to PM to peek into NE Oz and to assist with Nav Search. Most local IJNAF assets will remain at Rabaul except for a Zero unit based for now at Lae.

Elsewhere, we have finished unloaded a base force and supplies at Tulagi. A Jake unit moves here to keep an eye on the sea lanes between the Solomon Islands and the New Hebrides.

14th Army

Most of our construction tasks on Luzon are complete. We will shift numerous construction units to 16th Army AO and the Pacific. It’s never too soon to start digging in the perimeter. We will use construction units in groups of three, building bases up from the outer perimeter inwards. In addition, several base forces still at Takao will ship out for Babeldoab and their targets in the eastern DEI.

16th Army

Kendari is bombarded by a powerful SCTF consisting of Force Z and the USN/KNIL cruisers, and it’s an old school WitP nuke: 723(20) casualties, 89 air base hits, 32 supply hits and 1087 [X(] runway hits. Really? IMHO this result is a bit much, and it hurts a lot because we had transferred in a Zero Hikotai to jump the expected bombing raids during the day. The unit is trashed and the air base thoroughly closed, especially since DSwain’s B-17s show up right on schedule to add to the carnage during the daytime phases. Not sure how to get the survivors out. For now, we transfer the elite pilots into General Reserve and leave one rookie in the unit. There is a fragment at Manado, perhaps it will become the parent? I don’t mind suffering losses to a good move by the enemy, but over 1,000 runway hits is excessive and deprives the IJNAF of 90% of its fighter strength in the 16th Army AO. [:@] Well, on with the war.

KB and KBL converge on Babeldoab for Operation Katana (see analysis post up next).

25th Army

We sweep Singapore with every fighter at Kuala Lumpur. Unfortunately, the raid is uncoordinated. Over several combats, we shoot down 4 enemy fighters but lose 6 planes, mostly Nates. Tomorrow we will leave the Nates at home, using only the Oscars and Tojos. In addition, our Netties at Saigon, escorted by Zeros, will be set to Nav Attack/Port Attack Singapore. There are several juicy targets spotted at anchor, including a CL and numerous DDs. Who knows, the Lex may even be there (although I doubt it).

Malacca falls and we order the final advance to Singapore.

Burma

15th Army reaches Moulmein and will take it tomorrow. Oscars are moving up to help out in the air.

China

Our DA in the Sinyang Kessel finally breaks through – all enemy LCUs except 85th Corps surrender! Banzai! Four Corps and 2 HQ are destroyed (1 HQ surrendered previously). The casualties figures are bugged but I’m sure losses are horrific for the KMT. We will finish off the 85th Corps and seize Nanyang.

The enemy’s defeated army west of Loyang does indeed take the hint (see previous posts) and begins to fall back into the hills. We determine that 1 Div, 1 Bde and 2 arty units can be released from 11 Army to assist 12th Army in the Nanyang op. Cribtop HQ also details plans for a minor op in the far north with the desired end state of extending the line to the border of Outer Mongolia and destroying two enemy units currently behind our lines near Paotow.

[Cribtop]

Analysis – The Battle of Kuching

Yammamoto should have realized that there were, in fact, precisely two types of objectives in the Pacific – those that were worth attacking with all six of Japan’s fleet carriers, and those worth attacking with none. Shattered Sword, p. 59.

Cribtop HQ convenes to analyze the recent disappointment at Kuching. In essence, the IJN escaped with fewer sinkings than we deserved, but losses suffered at Davao, Kuching and to a lesser extent Kendari, particularly of DDs and fast xAKs, are unsustainable.

After much thought, we settle on several broad conclusions regarding enemy intentions and actions.

1) Any remaining doubt that DSwain plans to fight his war primarily on the left side of the map are dispelled. The enemy has concentrated virtually all of his assets, including all available CVs, to defend a line running Rangoon/Singapore/Kuching/Balikpapan/Kendari/Ambon. While we have taken one of these bases, all attempts to cross this line have been met with the kitchen sink.

2) Along similar lines, DSwain strongly prefers massed formations and fewer ops to dispersed forces and more ops. The entire Pacific is empty of ships, while huge SCTF and CV assets cruise the Java Sea.

What can be done? Cribtop HQ concludes that on some level we have fallen victim to the logical fallacy of the IJN described in the quote above. The Japanese player is under pressure at the start of the game to expand quickly on multiple fronts, but this leaves invasions with either insufficient surface cover or inadequate air cover. We have done well in preventing surface forces from disrupting our moves, but air cover has been consistently lacking in the DEI for the simple reason that KB was detailed for use in the 4th Fleet and SE Fleet AOs after the Pearl Harbor raid. This is a common problem for the Japanese player to have, but combined with DSwain's concentration in the DEI it is hurting us worse than most.

We therefore adopt the “Katana Doctrine,” which stipulates that we will only launch major amphib operations in one AO at a time, with the full support not just of the KB, but of a Mega-KB incorporating all 10 available flat tops. In short, we will meet mass with mass and we will do this in the DEI. All available resources will be directed at seizure of Ambon, Timor, Makassar, Balikpapan/Samarinda and Bandjermasin to create the necessary conditions to invade Java after the fall of Singapore.

This is judged acceptable because operations in the Pacific have already achieved Phase I objectives. We will table for now planned operations to capture New Caledonia and the New Hebrides. Part of the rationale for this is the obvious need to complete the conquest of the DEI, but in part this decision is made because DSwain’s focus on the western side of the map makes it unlikely that seizing these islands will re-direct his focus to the SE Fleet AO, which was the whole point of these invasions in the initial war plan.

Finally, our subs off the US West Coast and PH have been on pleasure cruises. Nothing, and I mean nothing, is moving east of Oz. We do not express an opinion on the sub column doctrine previously adopted, as it seems to Cribtop Intel that the enemy just isn’t sailing in the eastern Pacific and thus that no arrangement of patrols can catch air. We will move significant long range I-boat resources to concentrate on three areas: 1) The Indian Ocean. It seems likely DSwain is moving forces from the US East Coast to India. These waters should be a happy hunting ground. 2) Auckland. Intel has picked up rumblings that Auckland is being expanded rapidly. Whatever DSwain is sending over the eastern Pacific is probably landing here. 3) Java. We will surround this island with subs to try to interdict movement of supplies to form Fortress Java and to try to pick up intel on enemy fleet dispositions.

We will strike hard as soon as possible. It will take about 5 days to get KB and KBL into position, but Cribtop HQ has little doubt we are making the right decision.

[Cribtop]

Jan 24, 1942

Subs

Nothing.

SE Fleet

SE Fleet (the SCTF) is one day out of Truk, which conveniently upgrades to a lvl 7 port just in time to rearm the BBs. They will soon move out to invade Baker and Canton. We determine that 9 construction units will soon be available for 4th Fleet and SE Fleet AOs. Dig!

16th Army

A vast armada is converging on Babeldoab – KB, KBL, China Sea and Siam Squadrons (Sulu Sea Squadron is already at Babel). We will throw the whole kitchen sink into Operation Katana (seizure of Ambon, Timor, Makassar, Samarinda, Balikpapan, and Bandjermasin in a series of Ops). In addition, Claudes on Taiho move toward Japan to be upgraded to Zeros. A fresh daitai is headed to 16th Army, and we will buy out the last regt of 20th Div soon as well.

We consider sending in a suicide mission to pull out the damaged remnants of the Zero unit in Kendari, figuring that even if it sinks the fragment in Manado will become the parent, but we can’t do this without knowing for sure the fragment will convert and re-size to 45. Anyone know?

Elsewhere, our forces enter Cagayan’s hex and Banggi is occupied.

25th Army

We sweep Singapore, but the Tojos don’t show. Losses are 5:3 in our favor, but Cribtop Intel believes we lost more Oscars and DSwain lost more Hurricanes than were shown (lots of “spins away on fire” messages). Per the VP screen daily report, we smashed the Hurris, with 8 destroyed. Tomorrow we sweep again and send the IJAAF bombers after the airfield. Recon indicates the enemy is pulling his planes out of this base as air superiority is shifting to the Axis. We will redeploy 1st Sentai (still in Nates, but soon to upgrade to Oscar Ic) to the Burma front.

Our port attack doesn’t launch because we catch xAK Somelsdjink (or some such Dutch name) and AMC Kanimba in nav attack. The Dutchman sinks, Kanimba takes a torp, and an AMc is obliterated. The combat replay shows troops lost – this is probably DSwain’s
“fragment express.”

Burma

24 Blenheims raid Tavoy. All 12 Nates on CAP don’t do much, but hopefully cause ops losses. 40 Oscar and 40 Nate are headed to this base to reinforce as mentioned above.

Moulmein falls to 15th Army. We will sit here for a day to see whether DSwain will begin bombing the troops. The enemy’s MLR is Pegu. We will consider how best to crack this nut, but believe the entire Pegu/Rangoon position can be enveloped. One disadvantage to DSwain’s preference for mass is that his ground tactics are very “big stack” oriented. This has left him vulnerable to flanking moves and may do so again.

China

One last deliberate assault and the 85th Corps, last survivor in the Sinyang Kessel, surrenders. Casualties are 8623(476) vs 102(0). Eight units (5 Corps & 3 HQ) have been annihilated in this battle. Banzai! The troops of 11th Army are in such good shape that they immediately march on Nanyang. Armor units will attempt to surround the city, either forcing a retreat or dooming another 8 enemy LCUs to destruction.

22nd Div is in position to parry any thrust at Amoy or other coastal targets, so we dust off the drive to seize Pahoi and Kwangchowan, with troops departing Canton for this purpose. We believe DSwain has been refueling subs at these locations (due to seemingly phantom “ships sighted in port” messages), so there is an operational justification for this thrust in addition to the strategic goal of taking the last Chinese ports.

Other

We begin upgrading a few DDs that can upgrade in January. Tomorrow we will pull DDs from active TFs to return to the home islands for February upgrades.

[Cribtop]

Jan 25, 1942

Beginning of a few quiet turns as we assemble LOTS of ships for Operation Katana. For those as anal as I am, you'll note my ops generally use the Japanese two letter designation (e.g. Operation MO). Operation Katana is an overarching offensive to seize the entire eastern DEI and thus gets a "real" name. In addition, we named it for the new Katana Doctrine of mass supported by Mega KB in an effort to remind us to stick to the plan.

Subs

I-5 is chased away from a juicy xAP convoy by escorts near San Diego. I-171 sinks xAK Siantar (looked like a big bastard [:D]) near Horn Is. The Torres Straits and the eastern coast of Oz are no longer safe for the Allies.

16th Army

3 enemy cruisers bombard Kuching, but the attack is ineffective. Supply has improved to the point we will try a DA tomorrow (although it's only a probe we don't really expect to work). A BA at Cagayan reveals 2 PA Divisions and a base force are present. Raw AV is 691:421 in our favor. We will begin bombing and launch a DA soon. Jesselton falls to a small company working its way through North Borneo.

25th Army

We sweep Singers and bomb the airfield. Losses are about even per the replay, but we get a lot of "spins away on fire" results and the daily screen shows we came out ahead. We get 57 runway, 13 airbase and 9 supply hits, along several planes hit on the ground. The supply hits really help. Kuala Lumpur makes a lvl 4 AF.

Burma

The enemy bombs Moulmein, which is good as we have no support troops there and plan to use Tavoy and Rahaeng as our airfields. The net result is thus to give us precious time to move in fighter reinforcements. DSwain had abandoned the base and it is already trashed by the rebels anyway (hope he paid a high PP price for that). While IMHO it would be gamey to abandon all bases in Burma in this manner abandoning Moulmein to defend behind the rivers is a totally legit move as far as I'm concerned.

China

It appears we bombed the lone enemy unit behind our lines out of existence today. We will shift to Nanyang. The strat map shows an unbroken line of red with no yellow at all in the rear areas. Beautiful! [:D]

Other

DDs either begin January refits or head to the Home Islands for Feb refits. We won't get every single Feb refit done immediately as we need ships for operational purposes.

[Cribtop]

Jan 26, 1942

Subs

I-162 sinks both xAKL Soerabaja and xAKL Sipirok in the kill zone between Toboali and Billiton. Why doesn't DSwain escort these convoys?

SE Fleet

Gasmata, the last enemy "flag" base in the SE Fleet AO, falls to a quick rod & reel op as planned. Our forces are close to shipping out from Truk for 4th Fleet AO for Operation BC, the seizure of Baker and Canton Islands.

16th Army

Betties from Davao sink xAKL Kanloan near Tacloban. We will send a few CLs and DDs to patrol the middle Philippines to shut off any supplies he is sneaking through like this. Manado is visited by B-17s, which is a concern as we plan to use this base to support Op Katana. Fighters are inbound.

Our DA at Kuching is underwhelming as expected. 1:2 odds, losses 155(2) vs 269(1) against us. We will need more men in all likelihood as there are several fort levels.

25th Army

More sweep and bomb at Singapore. Losses are 2:1 in our favor; 62 Runway and 5 airbase hits. Seven Lodestar transports are destroyed on the ground in addition to a few Buffalos. More evidence DSwain is pulling fragments. Tomorrow, Mersing will fall to an armored unit and the bulk of 25th Army will be in Johore Baru.

Other

Shortlands makes a lvl 1 airfield.

[Cribtop]

Quick screenies. First up, China. Note the lack of enemy units to the East of our lines. You can also see armor moving to cut off Nanyang.

[Cribtop]

And now Malaya. Will the coming battle end quickly or will we bog down?

[Cribtop]

Jan 27, 1942

Subs

Nada. Our subs have done so well it's an unfair disappointment when we don't hit something every day. We do launch a desultory ASW attack against a US sub near Sakhalin Island.

4th Fleet

Our battle fleet is ready to move forward with Op BC, and troops are loading at Truk. We should launch toward Kwaj tomorrow.

SE Fleet

We make the somewhat painful decision to divert another 15 Zeros from the Hikotai at Rabaul to 16th Army AO. There is some risk of a counterstrike in the Solomons but the diversion will be temporary as Taiyo has 36 Claudes in range of the Home Islands. These units will convert to Zeros and be assigned to 11th Air Fleet. This in turn will allow the 30 Zeros currently on loan to 16th Army to return to Rabaul. Recon of the NE Coast of Oz from PM shows Cooktown empty, Cairns and Townsend bristling with troops but few planes. We have no intentions of an invasion, but hopefully the constant recon will spook the enemy.

14th Army

Two xAK are spotted at Bataan. Our CL/DD force is moving into position and we set our IJAAF bombers at Laoag to 10% Nav search and Nav Attack/AF Attack. We must shut off even a trickle of supplies to the Americans.

16th Army

We begin loading 1 regt of 20th Div, 3 large SNLF and 2 engineer units to invade Ambon (1 of the SNLF will seize Boela to get a surrender at Ambon). KBL is two days NW of Babel. 2nd Raiding Regt also begins loading at Babel today. We have some interesting plans for this unit. We estimate the fleet will move out in 2 or 3 days. Lots of fuel is available, as KB's oilers are at Babel with 70K fuel, the base has upwards of 40K, and another 40K is unloading from tankers brought in from the Home Islands.

At Davao, massed transports begin flying an air HQ (22nd Flotilla I think) to Manado. We plan to turn this lvl 3 airfield into a Netty/fighter/search base to support Op Katana. An FT TF will load up to help re-supply Kendari. This is desperately needed because an enemy USN CA force hits Kendari with another nuke. The airfield is long ago closed but the biggest hit is that supplies at the base are down to 2! [X(]

Malaya

Today's sweeps over Singapore are unopposed. The enemy aircraft have abandoned the base and we have achieved air supremacy in Malaya. We will switch to bombing troops after one more airfield attack. Mersing falls and Johore Baru will be attacked tomorrow. Four enemy units are still straggling out of the base - if they don't make it out of the hex we will help them get to Singers a little early. Cribtop HQ wants to cross the straits into the island fortress with 25th Army not later than Feb 1, but we hope to move over in just 2 or 3 days.

Burma

Burma is heating up. Our fighters reinforce Tavoy and secure that base. We will move a few small air support companies to Rahaeng as well. The plan is for our newly minted Lilys to bomb Pegu and Rangoon from Bangkok while Oscars & Tojos sweep from Tavoy and Nates escort from Rahaeng. 15th Army is 2/3rds of the way to the hex between Pegu and Moulmein.

China

We set all available bombers to hit Nanyang and order a DA. Yesterday's BA showed that only 4 enemy corps are present! The remaining units are 3 HQs and 1 construction unit. Raw AV is 1647/770 even before reinforcements arrive. Nanyang will not hold long against that!

[Cribtop]

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