AI for MWiF - USSR

[Cheesehead]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesehead

Trying to take out Yugo in JF41 or MA41 is a real pain when you need those turns to be staging for good hit on Russia in MA or MJ41.



kinda like in the real war.

Another thing to mention is that Yugo gets 2 extra corps in 41 as compared to 39. A 5-3 INF and a MTN.

[composer99]

Further to the discussion on the German AI thread about being sure to hold the pact vs. the USSR in 1941 when undertaking a non-Barb strategy, the USSR AI should be prepared to build and deploy to attempt to break the pact vs. Germany in 1941 if it sees Germany building for non-Barb (especially for Sealion). This was mentioned in the suggested build plans upthread, of course, but worth mentioning again.

The question is whether US/CW will want the US entry hit, but the distraction it causes for Germany (especially if they are in the middle of a Spanish/UK campaign) and the lost production (and oil if USSR can also go after Rumania), and the potential for game-altering GBAs should probably be worth it. In particular, if Germany is in the UK, it will need to do combineds to bring army back to Europe, which in the USSR's opinion is gold.

Indeed, if USSR breaks the pact, goes to war, and takes the Rumanian oil, it's pretty much game over for Germany and Italy.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Further to the discussion on the German AI thread about being sure to hold the pact vs. the USSR in 1941 when undertaking a non-Barb strategy, the USSR AI should be prepared to build and deploy to attempt to break the pact vs. Germany in 1941 if it sees Germany building for non-Barb (especially for Sealion). This was mentioned in the suggested build plans upthread, of course, but worth mentioning again.

The question is whether US/CW will want the US entry hit, but the distraction it causes for Germany (especially if they are in the middle of a Spanish/UK campaign) and the lost production (and oil if USSR can also go after Rumania), and the potential for game-altering GBAs should probably be worth it. In particular, if Germany is in the UK, it will need to do combineds to bring army back to Europe, which in the USSR's opinion is gold.

Indeed, if USSR breaks the pact, goes to war, and takes the Rumanian oil, it's pretty much game over for Germany and Italy.

Yes.

In particular, it is crucial to not let Germany ignore the USSR with the 'knowledge' that the AIO playing the USSR "never DOWs in 1941". This falls into the generalrule of thumb for an AIO, that it can not be predictable.

[fallgelb]

An other aspect is that breaking the pact is not leading automatically into a DOW (Russia to Germany)! I would suggest three "escalation levels" for the AI:

1. Trying to break the pact is always (almost always) the right thing. Germany looses the ressources, russia gain the ressources. Germany has to deal the new potential threat. Breaking the pact eventually brings Germany in a position that it have to DOW without the possibility to attack at once because of aligning Rumania and Finland . The USSR is free to do things otherways leading to breaking the pact (DOW Hungary etc.). Germany is under pressure to align its Allies, losing 1942-units (13 BP as Ii remember).

2. The DOW is in most cases also a good decision. Germany looses in most cases the ability to align Finland and Rumania. This is crucial for a Barbarossa. Russia receives the Res units, which are unflipped until Germany is able to attack. Russia gets the ability to biuld MIL. In this escalation Level some minor Operations in the frontier area are intended but no full scale attack. Attacking german CONV in the baltic in the surprise is possible. To mention is the lost US-Entry-chit (or lost chits).

3. Attacking Germany full scale after the DOW. This is IMO only possible if Germany is still engaded in an other theater (still france, spain, Seelion, Med, perhaps balkan). Maybe it works with an early US-emtry as well if germany is not engaded.

In our Games we had sometimes each of the three levels. Each of the situations was favorite for the USSR.

I would almost always agree to Patrice but not regarding his opionion to claim Eastern Poland in any situation. Another post was saying: "You should always claim Eastern Poland if you have not a cunning strategy". One of these cunning (but of course gamey) manouveres is not to claim poland and hope that germany don't remember garrisoning the Eastern Poland Border with enough troops and to break the pact (and in this case DOW) JF40. This operation usualy works only one time [:'(] This Operation should be considered especially if Poland is conquered late (ND39), because than germany has to be very aware of this threat to operate accordingly.

[hakon]

I think putting too great an emphasis on breaking the pact with the USSR is a bad idea, at least in 40 and 41.

If Germany seems to not be going for a 41 Barbarossa (by sending forces to Africa, building trs, amph, navs, etc), Russia should at the very least secure the Middle east, or even attack Japan outright. If you don't do this, China may end up conquered, and Japan can be very strong then. If you attack Japan, Japan will have to chose whether to more or less stop their offensives in China, or to let Russia take Manchuria. In either case, Japan is likely to suffer more than Russia from such a war, and if Japan sends too few defensive forces against you, you may even take a few resources.

There are two main approaches to attack Japan.

1) Attack Persia first. If Japan is set up to reinforce, they may save you the US entry hit from DOW'ing them by DOW'ing you first, and if they don't, at least you get Persia. In this case, you may still DOW them later.

Advantage : Smaller US entry cost.
Disadvantage: It will be harder to get the Persian oil.

2) Attack Japan directly, preferrably in M/J 40. If you coordinate this with the US, make sure that he puts all 1939 chits in the Ge/It pool, and then the first two 1940 chits in the Ja pool. This is likely to mean that the US entry hit from the DOW is kept to a minimum.

Advantages : This puts more direct damage on Japan, and earlier, and gives you a surprise impulse against them (good for your long ranged bombers, as well as the subs). Should you come to a peace treaty with Japan, you can always DOW Persia after, as Japan will then not be able to forcefully intervene. Also, should Japan set up a strong defensive force against you, you may actually achieve your objective (of saving China) even without having to attack.

Disadvantages : Higher US entry cost, and you may not have the time to take Persia until after the war with Japan, if ever.

In either case, you have to be a bit careful, and specifically watch for any sign that Germany is changing their plan. If they do, Russia should waste no time starting to send forces back to Europe, regardless of the situation vs Japan.

If Germany is building in a way that suggests a Barb41, Russia should NOT risk war with Japan, if they can avoid it. It may still be a good idea to have some defensive forces in the east in 1940, to avoid being attacked in 1940, and maybe even to make the Japanese player a bit cautious. But the last thing you want, is a drawn out war vs Japan while Germany is on your doorstep.

In this case you may want to maximize your garrison vs Germany during the summer of 40, though it is not likely to matter very much. By keeping a few high value pact chits defensive, Germany can get pact values in the 20's or 30's from just a few units, especially if they are SS or MTN. (1 SS + 1 MTN + 2mil units give 2*(2+2+1)=12 garrison (doubled for 1st year after pact). Typically, Germany can easily double this again with chits, requiring Russia ot have a pact value of 48 to break the pact (which is very hard in mid-1940). And this is with only 4 units....

Cheers
Hakon

[composer99]

I would say as a rough estimate, if Germany spends over 50% of its production on sealift/subs/naval air/navy/long-range fighters/Marines in 1939-1940, the USSR has nothing to fear from a 41 Barb and should be looking for ways to weaken the Axis (attacks on Japan in '40, breaking pact whether or not a war vs. Germany in '41).

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: fallgelb

An other aspect is that breaking the pact is not leading automatically into a DOW (Russia to Germany)! I would suggest three "escalation levels" for the AI:

1. Trying to break the pact is always (almost always) the right thing. Germany looses the ressources, russia gain the ressources. Germany has to deal the new potential threat. Breaking the pact eventually brings Germany in a position that it have to DOW without the possibility to attack at once because of aligning Rumania and Finland . The USSR is free to do things otherways leading to breaking the pact (DOW Hungary etc.). Germany is under pressure to align its Allies, losing 1942-units (13 BP as Ii remember).

2. The DOW is in most cases also a good decision. Germany looses in most cases the ability to align Finland and Rumania. This is crucial for a Barbarossa. Russia receives the Res units, which are unflipped until Germany is able to attack. Russia gets the ability to biuld MIL. In this escalation Level some minor Operations in the frontier area are intended but no full scale attack. Attacking german CONV in the baltic in the surprise is possible. To mention is the lost US-Entry-chit (or lost chits).

3. Attacking Germany full scale after the DOW. This is IMO only possible if Germany is still engaded in an other theater (still france, spain, Seelion, Med, perhaps balkan). Maybe it works with an early US-emtry as well if germany is not engaded.

In our Games we had sometimes each of the three levels. Each of the situations was favorite for the USSR.

I would almost always agree to Patrice but not regarding his opionion to claim Eastern Poland in any situation. Another post was saying: "You should always claim Eastern Poland if you have not a cunning strategy". One of these cunning (but of course gamey) manouveres is not to claim poland and hope that germany don't remember garrisoning the Eastern Poland Border with enough troops and to break the pact (and in this case DOW) JF40. This operation usualy works only one time [:'(] This Operation should be considered especially if Poland is conquered late (ND39), because than germany has to be very aware of this threat to operate accordingly.

The AIO will take a broader view. What is important is the relative strength of the USSR vis-a-vis Germany on their common border. And by common border I mean all units within 6-10 hexes of the border, not 1-2 hexes. Remember, the AIO's vision is comparable to a blind person using braille. It would be very poor play indeed if the USSR broke the pact only to enable Germany to DOW when they otherwise would not have been able to do so.

[fallgelb]

The AIO will take a broader view.

I base my own decisions in this and other matters not on units in Theaters of war, but on global aspects.
Important for me is the distiction of BREAKING PACT and DOW and ATTACKING. This are three levels of action, each level has its cirmumstances in which it is the right ding to do. Breaking the pact if possible is only dangerous if germany is preparing BARBAROSSA 1941 (see below).

The earliest opportunity to Break the pact is in JF40. In most of this cases the USSR can break the pact if germany makes a mistake (don't move the polish garrisons to the border). In some cases germany overcommits itself. France First, the denmark occupation (vs. an early British intervention?), Operations in the balkans, maybe in combination with an attack on the Polish cities which flip the attacking units. The threat of Russia breaking the pact is a shield for the Western Allies to protect them from a too active germany. I think if France is still alive and able to defend itself than Russia should in any case break the pact and maybe DOW and maybe attack. This will lead in most of the cases to a german capitulation 1940.

The second process i can remember leading to breaking the pact was late in 1940 or early in 1941. Germany and Russia were raising their garrissons in the border unit by unit. The Russian manages in this case to raise one time at unexpected speed so it could Brak the pact in one firts Impulse (a technical fault by germany). It was not a major Russian strategy counting invested BP and so minor operations vs. Persia etc were possible. A similiar situation develops if germany DOWs the baltic states to improve it's position in the east. In this situation if it is clear that germany is not building for a BARBAROSSA 1941 but for a MEDITTERANEA Strategy, Russia should break the pact. More important than the locations of the units is, what Germany was building until that date. Even if operations are undertaken in the MED, the available german ARM/MECH are heading eastwards.

The third situation is that germany is building for a BARBAROSSA 1941. IMO germany cannot attack Russia in 1941 (or 1942) without preparation, that is building all available ARM/MECH and HQ. Sometimes i tried an imporoviesed BARBAROSSA but in any case it was not a success. If germany is building towards an BARABROSSA 1941 than RUSSIA should not try to brak the pact. In this case RUSSIA should try to stuff the border. My assumption is that the chance of denying a BARABROSSA 1941 in this case is above 90%. If germany losses the turns in 1941 without major operation the Allies should win the war. That results in the axiom that if germany is preparing BARBAROSSA 1941, Russia ought to stuff the border. If Russia is stuffing the border and germany not executes BARBAROSSA than Russia should break the pact (and be able to) in most cases. The BARBAROSSA 1941 mathematics leads IMO to the desicion for germany not to try a BARBAROSSA 1941 (if there is no cunning strategy behind) because you should not try a major operation which has a probalility of less than 10% to success.

Besides that, as Russia i would not try to prevent BARBAROSSA 1942. Breaking the pact is therefore not a problem form JA41 on if germany is at this time not able to attack.

The most difficult situation for the AI is to calculate if vs. a german MED strategy late 1940 or early 1941 (without engagement in spain) with the available german ARM/MECH at the border a full scale built up at the border (to be able to break the pact) should be undertaken. And in this case an attack should not be the primary consideration, but maybe a DOW. But i think this could be processed by the AI in calculating ARM/MECH BP in "range" of the border, availability of HQ and Air.

[micheljq]

ORIGINAL: fallgelb

The AIO will take a broader view.

The earliest opportunity to Break the pact is in JF40. In most of this cases the USSR can break the pact if germany makes a mistake (don't move the polish garrisons to the border). In some cases germany overcommits itself. France First, the denmark occupation (vs. an early British intervention?), Operations in the balkans, maybe in combination with an attack on the Polish cities which flip the attacking units. The threat of Russia breaking the pact is a shield for the Western Allies to protect them from a too active germany. I think if France is still alive and able to defend itself than Russia should in any case break the pact and maybe DOW and maybe attack. This will lead in most of the cases to a german capitulation 1940.

I did face this as the german what did bug me the most was the Guard Banner Armies the soviets were able to have in 1940. That was making them too strong too early, we did stop using this option. Otherwise I could have hold eastern Germany and do a strong counterattack in 1941. And the americans were to enter the war later. Ever heard of the Battle of Tannenberg in 1914? Where a russian army advanced too much in Germany was annihilated?

The third situation is that germany is building for a BARBAROSSA 1941. IMO germany cannot attack Russia in 1941 (or 1942) without preparation, that is building all available ARM/MECH and HQ. Sometimes i tried an imporoviesed BARBAROSSA but in any case it was not a success. If germany is building towards an BARABROSSA 1941 than RUSSIA should not try to brak the pact. In this case RUSSIA should try to stuff the border. My assumption is that the chance of denying a BARABROSSA 1941 in this case is above 90%. If germany losses the turns in 1941 without major operation the Allies should win the war.

Germany can still have a good Barbarossa 1942 and oblitarate the soviets.

[micheljq]

What USSR should do when it's sure Axis is going for a "take Gibraltar and med" strategy?  Is there an AI thread for this eventuality?  In this case USSR should think about :
- Invade Persia and Irak before 1942 because Germany could make a '42 Barbarossa.  If Axis is concentrated on the Mediterranean, they can try to have 4 corps to align Irak.  Irak can then be a base to enter Persia and USSR home nation from there, and could lead to alignment of Turkey.  Having USSR facing a Barbarossa from the west and disruption from Turkey and Axis troops in the Caucasus, is bad for them,any thought?  I think it is feasible?  Before attacking Persia, verify if Japan can send troops in the oil fields of Persia, if so what do? any thoughs, comments?
 
I am facing this situation in my campaign, I play USSR.  Germany took Madrid we are in MA41, and I think they will go for either Syria or Egypt or both after taking Gibraltar, if they do.

[micheljq]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

Persia :
Russia can easily take advantage of Persia (especially in CWiF where Teheran is in a Clear hex -- I would advise to put it back in a Mountain hex), and grab the 3 Oil resources it has.

Advantages :
Those 3 Oil wil come handy when Russia has to use oil to reorg oil dependant units, and the one Oil that is railable will be useful to help to produce at maximum level while Russia is giving 5 RP & 2 Oil to Germany. Also, this oil can be useful when Russia is rampaged by Germany and a lot of her resources are conquered.
Russia can use the Army of Siberia led by Zhukov for this, and only leave Vladivostock & the area to the defense of a couple of the weakest units and the reserves.

Drawback :
Using the Army of Siberia led by Zhukov to do this, might lead to an aggressive Japan play around Vlad. Anyway, if Japan had planned on taking Vlad and the surrounding area, Russian could not do much to prevent it.

I see other drawbacks :
- Worsening the relations with Commonwealth if played by a different player as USSR.
- Negative hit on US entry probable.
- Danger of the Japan aligning Persia and seizing the persian oil.

[paulderynck]

Japan must DoW Russia or teleport out when Persia is conquered. However they can get all three oil so this should be a possibility Japan thinks hard about. As Japan I try to make sure I have SCS with Divs or a 4-4 TRS available in Canton or Hainan so that I can go after the oil if Russia DoWs Persia. As Russia I mass on the border with Persia to threaten the possibility.

One way to really intimidate Japan from coming after the oil is to DoW Persia with both USSR and CW. CW takes the oil for a turn while USSR occupies Tehran. Likely this is costly for US entry though. But the best Japan can do is set up the Persian Cav on the 2-oil hex, align them, and reinforce them if necessary. Even then, they get only 2 oil for one turn, unless they DoW Russia.

I observed a game recently where Japan invaded Persia, thinking they could take at least 2 oil for the balance of the game even if Persia aligned with Russia. This is because if Persia defends the 2-oil hex, the defenders can be easily put out of supply and Persia's controller faces the prospect of losing all 3 oil. So normally the Persian Cav is set up on the 1-oil hex. But Russia was ready, set up the Persian Cav on the 2-oil hex and then surprised Japan by airlifting peacekeepers into the city beside the now Japanese controlled 1-oil hex as well as onto the Persian Cav. (It was verified by Harry that Japan could not intercept the Russian ATRs, per the Multiple States of War rules, even if they flew to re-org a flipped Persian!) That game is ongoing and it will be interesting to see what Japan does next.

Another thought to counter a Japanese invasion of Persia when Russia is not in position - if France hasn't fallen yet - align Persia with France. Possibly CW peacekeepers can still land and save one oil hex. Meanwhile Russia could look at a DoW on Japan and RRing units into Tehran. Then later if Persia goes Vichy, the Japanese must leave. Russia must be careful though, and not go deeper then hexes adjacent to the Caspian since they cannot trace supply into any of the Persian hexes in this case - until at war with Germany. Of course Russia also needs a CONV in the Caspian (something many players do anyway).

[micheljq]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Japan must DoW Russia or teleport out when Persia is conquered. However they can get all three oil so this should be a possibility Japan thinks hard about. As Japan I try to make sure I have SCS with Divs or a 4-4 TRS available in Canton or Hainan so that I can go after the oil if Russia DoWs Persia. As Russia I mass on the border with Persia to threaten the possibility.

Why DOW Russia, he can ship troops in Persia before it's conquered. If Japan has a fast TRS in Indochina, he moves & rebases in Persia at the end of turn before conquest phase. All Japan has to do is align Persia if USSR DOWs Persia.

[Phelan]

Japan won´t achieve anything if it only aligns Persia and sends peacekeepers, since those will teleport out of there after conquest.

DOWing Russia will allow them to stay after Persia is conquered.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Phelan

Japan won´t achieve anything if it only aligns Persia and sends peacekeepers, since those will teleport out of there after conquest.

DOWing Russia will allow them to stay after Persia is conquered.

Exactly. Although Japan can get oil for one turn since re-org and production is before conquest. But she has to have convoys in place if playing LOS and the most likely way to do that is to have Italy at war and be operating from a port somewhere in the Italian African possessions.

[micheljq]

ORIGINAL: Phelan

Japan won´t achieve anything if it only aligns Persia and sends peacekeepers, since those will teleport out of there after conquest.

DOWing Russia will allow them to stay after Persia is conquered.

Ah forgot that detail, anyway I think a DOW on USSR for 3 oil is really worth it.

[brian brian]

ORIGINAL: micheljq

ORIGINAL: Phelan

Japan won´t achieve anything if it only aligns Persia and sends peacekeepers, since those will teleport out of there after conquest.

DOWing Russia will allow them to stay after Persia is conquered.

Ah forgot that detail, anyway I think a DOW on USSR for 3 oil is really worth it.

my favorite Japanese strategy is to lay in wait for this. The long-range TRS in Canton is a given, but another key is to keep Manchuria very weak. Japan basically operates on interior lines somewhat with it's Chinese front near sea-ports, plenty of lift, rail connections between Manchuria and China, and highly mobile fleet units that can dominate the Russian coast-line; this makes it easy to shift in to a war with Russia whenever Japan wants, whether they look ready for such a war or not.

For this reason I no longer consider a Russian attack on Persia if Germany appears to be building for a Barbarossa campaign.

[micheljq]

I think USSR must consider an attack on Persia if Axis is on a strong mediterranean strategy especially if Syria/Irak is threatened or Egypt is lost or seriously threatened. Even an attack on Irak is feasible, there is 2 oil there transportable via rail to USSR. If the anglo-americans are frustrated because of an attack on Persia, well it's time to tell them to play the option 19 so that USSR can lend lease 1 persian oil to Commonwealth.

Some of this is written in the scenario notes.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

I observed a game recently where Japan invaded Persia, thinking they could take at least 2 oil for the balance of the game even if Persia aligned with Russia. This is because if Persia defends the 2-oil hex, the defenders can be easily put out of supply and Persia's controller faces the prospect of losing all 3 oil. So normally the Persian Cav is set up on the 1-oil hex. But Russia was ready, set up the Persian Cav on the 2-oil hex and then surprised Japan by airlifting peacekeepers into the city beside the now Japanese controlled 1-oil hex as well as onto the Persian Cav. (It was verified by Harry that Japan could not intercept the Russian ATRs, per the Multiple States of War rules, even if they flew to re-org a flipped Persian!) That game is ongoing and it will be interesting to see what Japan does next.

Update on that game.

Russia is poised to attack the Japanese with a surprise DoW. She holds the 2-oil hex and the other two hexes adjacent to the JP-controlled 1-oil hex. It is SO40. The Axis had the initiative and a Plus 1. They roll 7. Allies roll 7. Axis requests a re-roll and rolls a 6. Allies roll another 7! Smacking their lips now at the impending destruction of the Japanese, the Allies roll for weather. It's a 10! Only a 20% chance of rain in the Med and they get it. Russia decides to wait. Japan reinforces the landing zone and prepares another landing force in the Persian Gulf so they can outflank and eventually surround the 2-oil hex. (Russia has a very difficult time getting supply to that hex as it must all come overland and the nearest railhead is 4 hexes away.)

Next allied impulse weather roll: another ten!!

The best laid plans of men and mice are always subject to vagaries of chance.

[brian brian]

maybe the Russian player should go online somewhere and complain that this should never happen and obviously the weather table should be changed...