Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

5/21/44 and 5/22/44
 
KB:  No sign of it.
 
Allied Carriers:  Move from Darwin into the Banda Sea, taking on and badly damaging two IJN subs enroute.  I think the carriers will next head north toward Ternate - at which point they'll either draw the IJN carriers back to Mindanao (permitting the Allies to invade Banjermasin) or, if the KB stays away, cover the Allied invasion of Dadjangas.  (Note:  Seven additional CVEs have joined the Allied carrier TFs since it last departed Darwin two weeks ago - that's another 225 aircraft).
 
Tavoy:  Allied deliberate attacks attain 2:1 odds and drop forts to zero.  The fall of Tavoy is imminent and significant.  It will free up a sizeable stack of units that can then move over to Bangkok (the Allies have good roads from Tavoy to Bangkok while the Japenese army will be retreating through jungle).
 
Rangoon:  Transports bringing reinforcements to Rangoon underwent attack by Frances torpedo bombers and escort.  The Japanese took heavy losses and managed hits against two xAK.
 
India:  Japanese subs have returned to India's west coast, sinking three TK in the past week.  I have plenty of ASW TFs operating there, but thus far they have done very little.  On the plus side, even the loss of tankers means very little and it's nice to have those subs far away from the primary theaters of battle.
 
 

[Galahad78]

And that Allied LCU in Borneo north of the base next to Bandjermasin? [&:]

[Canoerebel]

Good eye, Galahad.  That's one of the surviving Dutch units from way back in '41.  As recently as three months ago I had three Dutch units "hidden" in the jungles of Borneo.  One of them even had an AV of four.  I moved the three units next to two bases to scout for the presence of Japanese units.  That one you noticed was scouting Sampit and recorded the arrival of the Japanese troops that now garrison the base.  The other two were scouting around Tarakan when they vanished - apparently due to lack of supply.

[Canoerebel]

I have just issued orders for the next two days.  The KB is absent, but it's also the 800 pound gorilla that can turn up unexpectedly and spoil the parties.  Highlights:
 
1.  Deliberate attack tomorrow at Kendari - I hope to lower forts from five.
2.  Deliberate attack tomorrow at Tavoy - I hope to take the base.
3.  Allied carriers to move to a point near Leowek (middle point of the Celebes).  CAP set at 40%.
4.  Dadjangas invasion fleet will arrive at staging point Morotai.
5.  Donggala invasion fleet will arrive at staging point Manado.
6.  Banjermasin/Sampit/Ketapang invaision fleets to take position in the Banda Sea, just north of Timor, to wait to see if the KB hightails it around Borneo to appear at Java, or shows up once again around Mindanao.

[Canoerebel]

5/23/44 and 5/24/44
 
No sign of the KB and now it's time for the Allies to make some decisions.
 
Kendari:  The Allied attack doesn't touch five forts, but comes off at 1:2 (much better than the 1:8 last time) and inflicts more damage on the Japanese garrison than is suffered by the Allies.  These are good signs that the siege will eventually succeed without requiring reinforcements.
 
Allied Carriers:  I think they will move forward of the advance Allied bases for the first time since the invasion of Morotai in November 1943 (and don't remind me of what happened on that occasion).  The carriers will take station just north of Manado (under plenty of land-based CAP) to either draw the KB into battle or, if the KB fails to show, to provide escort for the Donggala invasion TF that will be ready to depart Manado in two days or less).  I'll probably bump CAP to 50%.  LBA from Manado and Sidate will supplement the CAP.
 
4EB vs. Entrenched Troops:  By the way, I had more than 100 B-24 set to hit the ground troops at Kendari (forts five) over the past few days.  There was no CAP, so these were milk runs.  Total damage?  One non-combat squad disrupted.  Useless.  There is no need to use bombers against entrenched troops.  Better to emplohy them against troops in the open or in hitting airfield or port facilities.
 
Tavoy:  The Allies took this base on a 6:1 attack.  The Chinese troops will remain in Burma, pressing the retreating Japanese and serving garrison duty to free up the other Allied units to move on Bangkok and Nikon Richtisima. 

[Bullwinkle58]

Once you have the two bases on Borneo's southern coast, are you going to jump on Balikpapan, or wait to get Makassar?

I took Balikpapan two game weeks ago, and I'm swimming in fuel. Every convoy coming even a bit close back-hauls a load to Darwin. I have a very useful stock there (finally.)

[Canoerebel]

I have troops prepped for both Makassar and Balikpan.  My preference is to bypass Makassar, but that decision will be influenced by three things:  (1)  the location and condition of the KB; (2) Miller weakened his Makassar garrison by sending units north to engage Allied troops that landed at Watampone, Madjence, etc; it's somewhat tempting to land the Makassar contingent to cut off the IJA troops that would be caught out of position; and (3) the Balikpan troops are readily available at Darwin where there are plenty of transports; the Makassar troops are at Manado, meaning there's some risk in extracting them from such a forward position.

Decisions, decisions!

[Canoerebel]

Just issued orders for Allied carriers to take position one hex north of Manado.  Miller can give battle if he wants to do so.  Allied 4EB will also hit Cagayan airfield to try to dampen Japanese LBA.  Now to see what happens.

[Bullwinkle58]

Just wondering/musing:

I'm surprised he hasn't sought another decisive air battle. He's about run out of any slack time he had in early 1944, and you guys are still jabbing and dancing. Your progress forward has been steady, but I don't think he really feels strategically threatened yet east of Java. His collapse in the Burma--Indochina theater continues in slower motion, but it's happening.

However, you could eat up the summer of 1944 and not be where you want to be. So, a management question. Where do you want or plan to be on October 1, 1944? Is there one, key strategic goal you MUST achieve by that date? Can you get there at the present pace, if he continues to decline battle?

Just wondering. In my game, I'm at November 1, 1944, and while the AI is strategically done for, it still resists on each and every base hex I want. As a former boss once said to me about our brands' loss of market share: "We're getting beat to death with wet spaghetti, but it still hurts." I'm not in the PI yet, strat bombing from the Marianas is, so far, for me, not getting the job done, China is a guerrilla meat-grinder, I have almost too many ships to manage with my sanity intact, and still the calendar marches onward. Just wondering if you have any sense of "come on, let's go", even as he dances and jabs.

[Canoerebel]

Good questons, Bullwinkle.
 
Honestly, my progress has seemed slow to me thus far in '44, so I can only imagine what it must appear like to those of you reading my AAR.  And then, if I happen to compare this to Q-Ball's game vs. Cuttlefish, I'm really tempted to ratchet things up.
 
On the other hand, there's no question that the Allies can be where the need to be by October 1.  Even at my slow-and-steady pace, the Allies will take a bunch of Borneo ports by summer.  Those, in turn, will make it possible to reach the South China Sea (in the vicinity of northern Borneo) by late summer.
 
That, in turn, will permit the Allies to stage a massive invasion of coastal China this year, which is my long-term objective.  That will give me big air bases (Amoy, etc.) to handle a strategic bombing campaign, should unhinge the Japanese position in China (threating to isolate a vast number of troops), and will essentially sever the Home Islands from the DEI.
 
From the west, the British and their allies should be creating pressure around Bankgok and Phnom Penh, but the real thrust may come a bit further north as the Allies may send an expeditionary army to one or more of the nothern Vietnamese ports.
 
If the Allies win a big carrier battle, the timetable moves up tremendously, because the KB is really the only thing slowing me down at this point (the KB paired with LBA, I should say; but with the KB neutralized I could handle LBA).  If, on the other hand, the Allies lose a major carrier battle...well, that will make things much more difficult.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

5/25/44 and 5/26/44
 
Major developments give the Allies the information they need to select from one of the two invasion plans.
 
Allied carriers:  Take position just north of Manado.  There were a few LBA strikes escorted by Franks (which gave much better than they received) and Zeros (which got chewed up).  Here's what the CAP over the Allied carrier fleet looked like:
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Manado at 76,98
 
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5 Zero x 51
      P1Y1 Frances x 8
      Ki-84a Frank x 20 
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 14
      Seafire IIC x 5
      Wildcat V x 20
      P-40N5 Warhawk x 2
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 7
      FM-2 Wildcat x 263
      F4U-1A Corsair x 10
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 416
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5 Zero: 9 destroyed
      P1Y1 Frances: 1 destroyed
      Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed
 
I can't imagine that Miller would be willing to take on the Allied carrier TFs at this point unless he could do so on ground of his choosing (IE, ground saturated by a network of airfields).
 
KB:  The Japanese carriers showed up on the second of the two-day turn, taking station off the northeast coast of Mindanao.  Pompano put two TT into CV Taiho, an auspicious development.  The presence of the KB way up here gives me the all-clear to proceed with the invasions of Donggala, Banjermasin, Sampit, and possibly Ketapang.
 
Invasions:  The Allied carriers and the Donggala invasion force are currently at or adjacent to Manado.  These ships will move southwest into the Makassar Strait.  D-Day should take place in two days.  Meanwhile, the invasion TFs slated for Borneo's southern coast will steam west through the Banda Sea.  They will rendezvous with the carriers as soon as they aren't needed for the Donggala invasion any longer.  It's been a long time since I've named any operations, but Donggala will be Operation Yellow Tavern while the Borneo invasions will be Operation Malvern Hill. 

[Canoerebel]

P.S.  Lord knows I'm no prophet, but I am nearly sure I know what Miller's going to do this time.  With Allied carriers just NW of Manado, a stack of transports just north of Manado, and the recent Allied LBA strikes vs. Cagayan, he's likely to conclude that the Allies are about to invade Dadgjangas, Cotobato (both on Mindanao) or possibly Tarakan.  So I think he'll keep his carriers close to Mindanao in hopes of orchestrating a massive carrier- and LBA strike vs. my fleet.
 
If so, that serves my purposes nicely as it permits the Allies to move on Donggala without interference and to get the ships in position to hit southern Borneo soon thereafter.  I don't think there's any way that the KB will be able to go around Borneo to timely interfere with the south coast landings, now.

[Canoerebel]

Yowza, for want of the nail the shoe was lost....
 
The Donggala invasion TF that stopped at Manado temporarily...wasn't set to "Do Not Unload"!
 
*ack*
 
Now I have to load them on the fly (without supplies) in order to get things back on track.  The carriers and combat ships will take station in the Malacca Strait northeast of Balikpan.  There they will await arrival of the Donggala invasion fleet.
 
I have also decided that an invasion of Dadjangas isn't likely to ever occur in this game.  (I've had troops prepped and often loaded for most of the past six months).  The transports are currently north of Manado.  They will follow the carriers south.  I am going to recon Samarinda, the base north of Balikpan.  If it's open, the Dadjangas-prepped troops will land there.  If it looks too tough, I may land the troops at Madjene to help in the campaign that will culminate at Makassar.
 
Meanwhile, the transports loaded with troops bound for Banjermasin, Sampit and Ketapang will steam to a point just south of Kolako (near Kendari) and await the availability of the Allied carriers.  This is the "real thing" (IE, more important than Donggala), so I am likely to send the carriers south to rendezvous with these ships at or near Banjermasin in two days.  If Banjermasin falls, the Allies have a base from which to hit Batavia, Palembang and even Singapore.
 
In anticipation of these developments, the B-29 squadrons at Karachi are moving to Colombo.  From there they can transfer to Banjermasin (or Kendari or another good airfield) when the time arrives.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Good questons, Bullwinkle.

Honestly, my progress has seemed slow to me thus far in '44, so I can only imagine what it must appear like to those of you reading my AAR.  And then, if I happen to compare this to Q-Ball's game vs. Cuttlefish, I'm really tempted to ratchet things up.

It only seems slow, maybe, because you're attacking real estate nobody has ever heard of before in a WITP/AE game.[:)]

I think you'll achieve those objectives too. I would just--one more time along with others in the general forum--caution you on placing too much hope on strat bombing to finish him off. I'm getting one 100-plane B-29 raid from the Marianas every four days. At least 1/3 of every unit is in maintenance 100% of the time.

I'm also channelling my own game into yours. I'm playing 1-day turns, so it's been a LONG game for me, through many patches and rule and code changes (subs, ASW, supply flows, etc.) I would urge you as well, if you don't do this, to look ahead in your arrival queues. In 1944 I think I've gotten more LCUs and more ships (not air units) than in the rest of the game put together. I get whole, new divisions on the WC now--in multiples--instead of Seabee battalions and maybe some regiment-sized units. Just hauling them forward is most of the game now. In the past week I've recieved over 100 ships, at ports 360 degrees around the map. (Waves of ships in late 1944 arrive at East Coast and Balboa instead of ready-to-go in San Fran or Portland.)

Ashore, I'm running into Forts 5-6 instead of 3-4 as I was in the outer defense layers. I don't have base forces enough to give one to everything I'm overrunning (especially in IndoChina; lots of bare base hexes on the road to Saigon.) The AI doesn't exploit these holes like a human would, but it's still disconcerting. Since June 1944 it's almost a different game. I'm running a trucking company more than a war machine. And EVERYTHING is taking longer than I thought it would.

I was cruising until Labor Day 1944, tidying up the Marianas, getting each island just so, moving 4 million tons of supplies forward. And then, poof, it was October, and I wasn't much farther along. Less than a year before the USSR activates and I'm still prepping for the PI. Time is getting away from me.

Anyway, you have a much bettter plan than I do/did. You have time.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is the "real thing" (IE, more important than Donggala), so I am likely to send the carriers south to rendezvous with these ships at or near Banjermasin in two days.  If Banjermasin falls, the Allies have a base from which to hit Batavia, Palembang and even Singapore.

And this ability to throw a rock and hit Soerbaja will, I predict, make him commit to stopping your westward roll. He was content to let you go north to the PI (as I said months ago now.) He will not be content to have his oil and resources under your guns. He may not be able to get his carriers there in time (or he may try a Heroes' Run down the Makassar Strait), but everything that can move in Soerbaja, Batavia, and Palembang regions will move to stop you in south Borneo. Else he's cooked.

You should have some Very Long Range recon assets by now (the F-7A Liberators heavies.) If you can, look into his SFTF-possible ports. This may be the time he lashes out.

[Canoerebel]

5/27/44 and 5/28/44
 
Our last turn of the day is interesting.
 
Allied Carriers:  Move south into the Straits of Makassar, where strike aircraft make absolutely mammoth raids against a mammoth number of xAK and AKL and a few TK and DD.  I think Miller lost 30 to 40 ships this turn.  Not sure if he saw an opening to extract supplies and fuel from Balikpan (while, he figured, the Allied carriers were at Mindanao) or dliberately hoped to draw Allied strikes to help his chances in any upcoming carrier battle.  Either way, the Allies expended alot of effort this turn.  When I get the turn file tomorrow morning, I will have to carefully evaluate the ability of the carriers to accept or seek battle.
 
KB:  I think the KB remained around Mindanao.  For Miller to intervene in the upcoming Banjermasin and Sampit (and possibly Ketapang) invasions, he'll have to send his carriers south through the Makassar Straits right.  The Allies have bases on the Straits, now, he'll figure the water will be choked with subs, and for all he knows the Allied carriers can reverse course and head north.  I can't see him doing that (which means the Allied invasions should face only LBA and that is manageable). 
 
Kendari:  Allied deliberate attack drops forts to four, comes off at 1:2, and inflicts more damage on the enemy.  That's good progress.  I think Kendari is on schedule to fall in two or three weeks.

[Canoerebel]

Bullwinkle, very interesting comments.

My hope for strategic bombing is that it's effective enough to force Miller to strip some fighters from his front line bases.  I also hope for the occasional damage to Palembang and some of the Home Island.  I may use B-24 to hit Soerabaja as I don't intend on taking that base.

I'm dealing with five or six forts too.  Very tough.

I'm having trouble carrying troops from the West Coast, but that's okay.  I almost have enough in the DEI to do what I need to do.  But of course I'm trying to move new guys forward as best I can.

Miller's garrison of Mindanao is MASSIVE.  He's now trying to garrison places like Zamboanga and Puerta Princessa.  He has time, but he's scrambling.  If the Allies can take Banjermasin and Balikpan, they can then roll up the coast relatively safely to take Tarakan and then on up to the South China Sea.  That's when I think the Allies can finally achieve some strategic surprise by moving on lightly garrisoned bases on the Chinese coast.

[Canoerebel]

Miller won't send the turn file until sometime later today, so I'm spending some time reviewing the last turn, which Miller called "the Mariannas Transport Shoot" (not that it occurred in the Mariannas, but rather around Balikpan).

Here's the roster of ships hit by the Allied carrier force over two days:

DD - 3 (Shirayuki and Hatsuyuki sunk; Uruyuke badly damaged)
xAK - 1
TK - 3 (Moji and Nikkoku sunk; Teikai badly damaged)
AG - 1
xAKL - 42 (most sunk, the rest badly damaged)

The Allied suffered some aircraft losses, naturally - a CAP of 70 Zeros claimed some fighters and I'm sure flak and Ops claimed a share of the strike aircraft.

The Allies will have dimished carrier sorties and probably elevated fatique, but I don't think I will retire.  More likely, the Allies will take the following steps:

1)  Carriers continue to move south, rendezvous with the South Borneo invasion transports, and cover the invasions of Balikpan and Sampit.
2)  By moving south, the carriers will keep some distance between them and the KB.  If KB pursues, I'll have a few days to decide what to do.
3)  By moving the carriers south, the Donggala invasion force will be left unprotected, except by some LRCAP from the field at Gorontolo.  If the KB moves south, this TF will be completely vulnerable.  I need to decide whether leaving them unprotected is worth the risk.
4)  I haven't seen the file yet so I don't know if Samarinda is open or has a garrison.  If open, I will detail some transports with troops to take the base.  They would be in the same position as the Donggala force.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in Thailand as we near the end of May 1944:

1. Tavoy just fell to the Allies. The Chinese units will follow and press the retreating Japanese army. The other Allied units will move toward Bangkok.
2. Some of the Allied units currently around Bangkok will move east to Nikon Richtisima (spelling, hah!).
3. If the Allies can break through at Nikon, they will then move toward the coast via the northern route (to Ninh) rather than the southern route (to Saigon).

[Canoerebel]

5/29/44 and 5/30/44
 
I had a disastrous day at work today.  I somehow managed to click a series of buttons that pretty much wrecked our website.  The good news is that I'm the boss, so I won't be fired.  The bad news is that I'm pulling my hair out trying to fix things.  I'm making some progress, but -oy! - what a day.
 
Meanwhile, the IJN carriers had remained up NE of Mindanao, so I proceeded with my plan - Allied carriers move south through Makassar Straits to rendezvous with southern Borneo invasion TFs.  I did leave the Donggala invasion TF all but unprotected to hit those beaches.
 
With all that was going on at work, I wasn't able to give the attention to detail that I might ordinarily.  Then I sent the file to Miller.  He emailed back that he expected a titanic struggle if I stayed around Balikpan.  So he apparently thought that was my target.
 
My carriers will actually be well to the south, but I guess there's a chance the two sides could colide.
 
What really worries me is that my preoccupation with the "crisis" at work may have caused me to overlook some things.  But maybe not.
 
We'll see.