cap_and_gown(j) v witpqs(a) - no witpqs

[SuluSea]

I agree that sub picket line west of the DEI may be of better use elsewhere. IMO it's a risky sortie fo an allied player to run a convoy south from India with DEI in Imperial hands. As for convoys coming from Capetown the allied player should be using different hexes to enter the map when heading to Western Oz from Capetown to avoid sub pickets. One extra click and the Allied player can use any hex West of Oz to enter. I guess it all depends on the opponent and how much attention to detail he shows. I use 4 different locations in Oz depending on if it's troops or supply.

Best of luck Cap and Gown. [:)]

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: CarnageINC

I was looking back through your AAR and noticed that you planned on a possible invasion for Perth area in June of 42.  What happened with those plans and how hard is he pressing you in N. Australia right now?  Thanks for the AAR C&G [;)]

I chickened out. [:D] A July, multi-divisional offensive was not appealing because it would weaken me in other places and possibly invite an allied counter offensive while I was busy in western Australia.

I think this is the one huge mistake I have made. I should have planned on Perth right from the beginning. If I had been planning for Perth all along, maybe I could have gotten down there much earlier. While some troops were dealing with the DEI, I could have sent another contingent south instead of waiting until the DEI was totally secured. Having Perth and Kalgoorlie would have made the DEI even more secure and would have facilitated raiding of his convoy routes between Cape Town and Melbourne.

Now that I know just where those convoys from Cape Town are popping out of the east side of the map my morale has dropped considerably! Here I was thinking that his supply/fuel situation in Oz was fairly poor. Now I realize he could be sending tons of stuff via the Cape Town route and I wouldn't even know it!

As to Northern Oz, he is not pressing me at all. In fact, recon indicates he may be pulling some units out of Tenant Creek. In all of northern Oz I only have 4 SNLFs, one aviation bn (24 aviation support) and one aviation coy (8 aviation support). I am now considering evacuating the SNLF at Katherine and the one at Broome. I don't think he wants to come at me through Northern Oz since he abandoned it because of his supply problems there.

Right now his recon is flying over two areas: Somoa/Tonga and New Guinea. In the south, he has been taking pictures of Pago-Pago, Niue, and Taue. Taue and Niue have not been built up and are only garrisoned by an SNLF each. He reconned Canton a while back, but has not taken any pictures there lately. So as far as he knows, I still have troops at Canton! In the New Guinea area he has been taking pictures of Horn Island, Port Moresby, and Milne Bay. He has also been taking pictures of Katherine in northern Oz. I would guess those pictures have convinced him that he can safely ignore the Darwin area and concentrate his forces for offensive operations elsewhere.

[CapAndGown]

Oct. 11, 1942

I am gathering up my subs in the east to reposition them based on the advise offered above. I am also considering a CV raid in that area, though I would limit that to just CVLs. Maybe I should sortie some PBs as picket ships ahead of time so that my CVLs don't get caught unawares by allied CVs in the IO! Come to think about it, a raid down there with a small portion of my CV fleet may encourage him to try a raid of his own that I could counter with my main fleet. This will take some time to organize since I will need to rustle up some escorts and then get the ships over to the IO. Something to consider.

ADDED: Let me also add that whatever he had down in the south that was spotting my subs has now gone away. Their detection level has now fallen back to zero. Maybe he just had some CVs there to screen his convoys that he sent across my sub-picket line and now that those convoys have safely transited the area, the CVs went home.

Two turns ago an ASW TF dc'ed the Seawolf in the strait between Bali and the island to the east. To avoid this ASW TF, witpqs apparently tried to send the Sago through the Banjowangi strait instead. Unfortunately for the Sago, that strait is mined. [:D] The sub shows up on the sunk ships screen, but I doubt it really sank. My experience, both with my subs and with allied subs, has been that mines may cause some serious damage, but they are not going to sink one.

This really has been a rough few weeks for the allied silent service.

[koontz]

Great AAR!
Very informative!

long time lurker here!

Regarding the use of Sub, for the Empire ive think its better to use
them to to support the IJN then to hunt convoys.

But that just my thought!

Good luck!

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: koontz

Great AAR!
Very informative!

long time lurker here!

Regarding the use of Sub, for the Empire ive think its better to use
them to to support the IJN then to hunt convoys.

But that just my thought!

Good luck!

Thank you. Right now I do not know where the allied fleet is. And I am using these screens to not just sink ships, but obtain intelligence on allied movements.

Because there has not been very much action in this game in a very long time, my opponent has very helpfully provided a map of his sub patrol areas so that I can run a few convoys over them. Hopefully, this will liven things up a bit!

[CapAndGown]

Oct. 18, 1942

Monsoon effects are supposedly over. Still no sign of gathering forces on the India/Burma frontier. But this is the message (in its entirety) I got in my last email:

"The days of large-scale coordination and planning."

Sounds like the cowboys are saddling up and getting ready to ride.

The CVL Ryuho arrived today. I took the two air units that start on Hosho, which have been training since the beginning of the war, and moved them over.

[CapAndGown]

Oct. 20-21, 1942

On the 20th the I-155 torpedoed and sank the S-boat 37 just west of Exmouth. I had positioned this sub here precisely in order to intercept allied subs coming and going between Perth and the DEI. Looks like my plan worked.

On the 21st the allied Battle fleet was spotted by sub borne float planes and by the I-25 making the transit between the Austral Islands and New Zealand. This is an enormous intelligence coup. What it tells me is that the Gilberts and Marshals will not be the site of the first allied offensive. Some troops I was just about to disembark there can now be diverted elsewhere. This is what the I-25 found:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Raoul Island at 142,194
Japanese Ships
SS I-25

Allied Ships
DD Walke
CA Astoria
CA New Orleans
CLAA San Diego
DD Mugford
DD Stack
DD Lang
DD Ralph Talbot

Since there is a CLAA present, there are also carriers!

Of course, the question still remains: where will the allied offensive be directed? New Caledonia seems unlikely. For now it seems he is by-passing Somoa, and Fiji is tactically a poor choice since his fleet can be flanked from the New Hebrides and Somoa. This leaves two possibilities: the Solomons/New Guinea area, or the DEI. Will he go to the DEI to try to deliver a direct blow at my economy? Without holding northern Oz, that does not seem likely, but perhaps he will try something audacious.

It is time to consider the repositioning of my Carrier and Surface fleets from the eastern edge of the empire to a more central location.

[CapAndGown]

Oct. 25, 1942

Nothing much happening overall. This turn, however, a curious incident occurred that could forebode that something bigger is in the works. An allied xAKL was torpedoed just west of Carnarvon. It was not carrying troops. It was not escorted. And there is nothing for the allies to supply up there since everything north of Carnarvon is mine. So just what was this freighter doing there?

Might witpqs be setting up picket ships using xAKLs? Don't the allies have something cheaper to use? Could he be trying to find my sub picket line? The S-37 was torpedoed here just a few turns back. Or maybe this ship had been anchored at Carnarvon recovering from damage and was just now being moved back to Perth. Whatever the case may be, it was really odd.

I am becoming ever more concerned that the allies may try a thrust towards the Sumatra/Java/Timor region as their first offensive. I am setting up a sub picket line around southwestern Australia to try to get some early warning about such a move. The problem here, though, is that whenever I have placed subs in this region, allied ASW has been very active and very effective. I may also move some picket ships out to this region, although they will need to be placed very carefully so as to not be spotted by land based patrol planes while still providing early warning of a major allied movement in this area.

I was going to run a raid down into this region, but now that the allied carrier force has been moved to Oz, a raid here is off the table. I am now considering a raid between Hawaii and California. That will take a while to set up since my AOs will need to get back to the DEI to refill after delivering fuel to various bases in the Pacific.

[CapAndGown]

Oct. 26-27, 1942

On the 26th witpqs launched a P-38 sweep and B-17 bombing raid against Milne Bay. The P-38s, as was their normal practice, were at 39,000 feet, higher than my planes can go. Even though I had a layered CAP, that did not really have the impact that many people believe it does. Pretty much the same thing happens every time whether the CAP is layered or not: for the first number of rounds, the attacker has the advantage and kills everyone they meet. At some point, if the battle goes on long enough, this advantage disappears and the defender starts getting the bounce on occasion. Indeed, this seems to rotate in a cycle where first the attacker bounces, then the defender, then the attacker again, then the defender again, and so on until the battle ends. Fortunately, the battle lasted long enough that I was able to score a little bit.

Totals for the day:
Tojo - 11 A2A
P-38 - 5 A2A, 3 Op
B-17 - 4 A2A

3 pilots were KIA, 2 pilots were WIA, 1 pilot was MIA

As a result of this raid, even though my pilot losses were not that heavy, I made a decision to strip China of all the experienced pilots there. There has been absolutely no air action in China for ages. So my China squadrons were denuded of their veterans, filled up with newbies, and set to training.

Economic Milestones Reached

I now have just over 1,000,000 HI points in the pool. At current usage rates, this is a 100 day supply. I am adding about 4,000 a day. That has been coming down for a while (I used to be adding up to 4,600 HI points a day) and will continue to decrease as I ramp up engine production. I have also increased naval shipyards somewhat. As the current expansion takes hold, I will probably expand engine production even more.

On the resources front, I now have a 100 day supply of resources on the Home Islands. This is much more to my liking. I have now turned the LI factories at Osaka back on. The factories at Tokyo, however, are still not producing. I expect that the number of days will now increase at a much slower rate, but they will increase. If it reaches 150 days, I will turn the LI factories at Tokyo back on. Even with both Osaka and Tokyo turned off, I have been able to hold my supply situation in the Home Islands fairly steady despite constantly shipping out supply and repairing factories. I will now have the ability to ship out even more supply.

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 7, 1942

The allied subs that surged into the South China Sea from Perth a while back are now returning to base. So we get the second act of the Great Java Snipe Hunt.

The first sub to run the gauntlet was the Sailfish. We were able to launch several attacks against this sub, but none connected. In the end, the Sailfish turned the tables on us and sunk one of our DDs. [8|]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Mataram at 57,114

Japanese Ships
DD Hatsushima, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugure

Allied Ships
SS Sailfish

On the other hand, on Nov. 7, during the combat replay, I heard a mine go off. Upon examination, it looks like a sub hit a mine at Mataram. I had just installed this minefield in order to catch these subs since it looked like they were taking an alternate route to avoid the mines at Banjowangi and the ASW patrol east of Bali.

Two more subs are currently heading down the Java Sea and into the Indian Ocean. I hope I can an least catch one of them.

In other news, the allies attacked Buna in their usual style: sweep by P-38s at 39,000 feet, followed by B-17s. 3 P-38s were lost A2A, 2 to Ops. 3 B-17s were Ops loses. 11 Nicks were shot down.

We have now settled on a house rule banning both sweeps and CAP above 30,000 feet.

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 10, 1942

So, now that I have been enlightened as to allied convoy routes between Capetown and Australia and finally have a sub screen in place, my first shot at an unescorted allied TK misses. [8|] Just how bad do you have to be to miss an unescorted tanker?I am wondering if there is a way I can convince the crew that throwing the captain overboard will not result in a charge of mutiny.

The allies swept Buna with a squadron of P-38F's and a squadron of P-38G's. A total of 48 P-38s attacked our base. The results were not too bad:

Tojo: 13 A2A, 2 Op; 6 WIA, 5 KIA
P-38F&G: 15 A2A, 1 Op

I wonder what witpqs is trying to accomplish with these sweeps. Trying to kill my pilots?

The airfield at Carnavoran just went to size 1. It is increasingly looking as if the first allied offensive may be aimed at reconquering the bases on Northern Australia. Witpqs has now flown recon over Broome and Derby, so he knows those bases are unoccupied. Building an airbase at Carnavoran will probably allow him to fly LRCAP over TFs sailing along the northern coast of Australia. I now have a Zero/Netty team stationed at Koepang just in case he makes a move in this direction.

Meanwhile, KBs 1 & 2 are stationed right now at Hollandia so that they can move to either the DEI or the Solomons rapidly. I am considering rebasing them to the southern side of New Guinea so that they can react more quickly to offensives in these sectors. The only problem with that is that a move in the direction of the Solomons would mean transiting the Torres Strait. While we might not be attacked (his closest base is at Cooktown) we would almost certainly be spotted, thus losing the element of surprise.

Current composition of Carrier Forces:
KB1: CVs Shokaku, Hiryu, Soryu; CVL Ryujo; BBs Haruna, Kirishima; CS Nishin; 8xDD
KB2: CVs Zuikaku, Akagi, Kaga; CVL Zuiho; BBs Hei, Kongo; 8xDD
KB3: CVs Hiyo, Junyo; CVLs Ryuho Shoho; CVEs Unyo (24xVal), Taiyo (24xVal); CS Mizuho; 8xDD

The CVE Chuyo will arrive in 11 days and a Val sentai will be stationed on it. It will then be added to KB3. KB3 is currently based in the Home Islands. It will be used as a raiding force.

Operation Feather-Duster
I am planning on a deep raid between CONUS and Hawaii. I am hoping to find allied tankers, though troops ships would be good too. It will be a couple of weeks before this operation can commence. I am waiting for the arrival of the Chuyo. I also need tanker support. My replenishment fleet is currently heading back from Rabaul to Balikpapan to load up on Fuel. From there is will need to make its way to Chi-Chi Jima, the base from which we will stage this raid.

I would have preferred to make a raid into the deep south Indian Ocean, but now that the allied CV force is based in Australia, such an operation is out of the question. OTOH, since there are probably few if any allied carriers in the eastern Pacific, a raid there, if surprise is achieved, can be conducted with minimal risk.

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 20, 1942

Nothing much has been happening. Yet my sense is that we are on the cusp of the first allied offensive. There have been no allied sub spotted in imperial waters in several days. My guess would be that they have been recalled to base to rearm and refuel before being surged prior to an allied offensive. The sudden appearance of numerous allied subs in some particular theater will probably be a give away as to the site of the allies first offensive. QUESTION: which is more effective for spotting subs (not attacking, spotting), naval search or ASW?

KBs 1 & 2 are being moved to Soerebaja. The Yugumo and Kagero class DDs are due for a major upgrade come Dec. 1. I really would like to have them upgraded since their AAA value will climb significantly and they will be rearmed with Type 2 depth charges. Unfortunately, putting them into the yard at Sorebaja will mean that my CVs will have to go with second class DDs rather than top of the line ones for a while, just as I am sensing a battle approaching.

Meanwhile, KB3 (a fat mini-KB) is at Nagasaki waiting for CVE Chuyo to arrive tomorrow. With the arrival of the Chuyo, I will have all 3 Taiyo class CVEs. They are loaded with Val datais. I was getting ready to send KB3 out into the eastern Pacific on a raid, but I am reconsidering that now. I may just send out the CVEs while the Hiyo and Junyo are sent to Sorebaja to mate up with KBs 1&2.

Do you suppose witpqs is waiting for the one year anniversary of Pearl Harbor to launch his first offensive? When we get to Dec. 7 I will post a major update of my economic and military status.

[CapAndGown]

My opponent has sent me the results of my PH attack. The top three battleships on this list sank. All the others are OK, though several of them may still be repairing.

[CapAndGown]

Dec. 7, 1942

Today marks the one year anniversary of the commencement of hostilities. As such, I plan on summarizing the situation, both militarily and economically, as it stands now.

Economic Statistics

Heavy Industry points: 1,130,000
Heavy Industry factories: 7,305

At current usage rates this represents a 110 day supply. I am currently producing a surplus of ~4,000 HI points a day. I want to bring this down by increasing engine production. I would rather have a stockpile of engines than a stockpile of HI points.

Oil Centers: 2,906

I have repaired all captured oil centers to their full capacity with the exception of Palembang which is still repairing. Palembang still has 98 damaged oil points. (Magwe was captured intact and is still intact. The allies have not been bombing it.)

Oil days remaining in the Home Islands: ~190
Oil days remaining in Manchuria: ~230

Fuel days remaining in the Home Islands: ~100

Resource days remaining in the Home Islands: ~120

Armament points: ~90,000
All but 95 armament factories have been shut off. My armament points have been hovering around 90,000 now since about May.

Vehicle points: ~6,800
I have increased vehicle production to 180. The number of vehicle points available has been climbing very slowly.

Below is a chart of my resource production. As can be seen, my fuel and oil situation have been fairly steady now for the last 6 months. This is rather troubling since it indicates I have not been able to build up much of stockpile of either oil or fuel. Fleet operations have been minimal. Most of that fuel is going into merchant vessels transporting resources, oil, fuel, supply, and troops. I would like to get into a situation where I can shut down a few of the resource convoys

Fleet Fuel stocks: (these are fuel depots meant for to resupply the fleet and local shipping, not for use by heavy industry)
Manilla: 70,000
Cagayan: 37,000
Hollandia: 14,000
Rabaul: 85,000
Truk: 53,000
Kwajalien: 21,000
Nauru Island: 29,000
Luganville: 43,000
Suva: 23,000
Java: 146,000 (this is a mix of fleet and industry supply)
Replenishment TF currently disbanded at Balikpapan: 80,000

[CapAndGown]

Dec. 7, 1942, cont.

Now lets take a look at situation with the airforce.

[CapAndGown]

And now for air production:

I am in the process of switching A6M2 production over to A6M3a. I have about 100 A6M2's in the pool. Tojo's have now almost completely replaced Oscars. There is still one front line sentai of Oscars still in use, plus some in China that are now being used for training purposes. Replacing all my Sally senatai's with Helens is going slower. I have about 500 Helens in use right now. Jakes have now basically replaced all Dave's, Pete's, Alf's, etc. except for a couple of training sentai.

[CapAndGown]

Now lets look at the situation with the respective fleets:

The allies have lost 189 ships, including:
3xBB
1xCA
4xCL
15xDD
9xSS
1xAP
5xxAP
7xTK
21xxAK
28xxAKL

The Japanese have lost 96 ships, including:
1xCA
1xCL
5xDD
3xSS
1xAPD
10xDMS
2xTB
18xPB
5xAMC
3xAK
1xTK
1xxAP
29xxAK
4xxAKL

The Japanese have available:
8xCV
4xCVL
4xCVE (however, I am not using Hosho for anything)
2xCS (Chitose and Chiyoda are currently undergoing conversion to CVL)
12xBB (including Yamato and Musashi)
17xCA
18xCL
2xCLAA
85xDD (this number overstates the DD numbers since I am in the process of converting Kamikaze's, Mitsuki's, and Minekaze's to E class)
4xAPD
126xxAP
94xTK
17xAO
56xSS
22xAKE
6xAR
1xARD
8xAV
2xLSD
110xAK
More AMc, ACM, CM, and CMc than I want to count
12xDMS
24xE
Dozens of PBs and SCs
Many more xAK and xAKL than I can count or use

[CapAndGown]

How about the pilot situation?

IJN replacement pool: ~2500; exp - 33
IJA replacement pool: ~3000; exp - 31

IJN general reserve: ~320
IJA general reserve: ~260

For both the IJA and IJN I have plenty of patrol, transport, and bomber reserves. It is with fighter reserves that I am rather thin.

IJN TRACOM: 52
IJA TRACOM: 27

There are only 4 aces.

pilots KIA: 344
pilots WIA: 149
pilots MIA: 166

[Swenslim]

Wow, you had so little air battles ? Very very very low losses from both sides.

[CarnageINC]

Your looking good, do you see any signs of impending allied offensives soon?  The allies are rather shy through most of the game so far you would think witpqs would do something soon. [&:]