Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

Well, I've just started reading the combat report.  I understand why the following combat took place - two sides sent ships to the same port - but I DON'T understand what the heck this Japanese armada was doing near the front lines.  Get a load of this:
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Bandjermasin at 61,102, Range 6,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      E Akikaze, Shell hits 13,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      E Shimakaze, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
      E Nadakaze, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
      E Kamome, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
      E Maeshima, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
      TK Amatsu Maru, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Arima Maru #4, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      TK Azuma Maru #2
      TK Choran Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires
      TK Juko Maru, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires
      TK Kaijo Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
      TK Kanze Maru, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
      TK Kozui Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      TK Kuremente Maru, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
      TK Kyoko Maru
      TK Mirii Maru, Shell hits 14, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Mitu Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires
      TK Nichiei Maru, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
      TK Nissan Maru
      TK Nissho Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
      TK Ose Maru, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Ryuei Maru, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
      TK Samui Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
      TK Sanraku Maru, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
      TK Shoyo Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      TK Tennan Maru, Shell hits 1
      TK Terukawa Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      TK Toen Maru, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
      TK Yamazuru Maru, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
      TK Yuho Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      TK Zuiyo Maru, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Toyoura Maru, Shell hits 30, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
      TK Seiryu Maru, Shell hits 21, and is sunk
      TK Fukko Maru, Shell hits 22,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      TK Katsukawa Maru, Shell hits 27, and is sunk
      TK Fukoku Maru, Shell hits 16,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      TK Mutsuyo Maru, Shell hits 12, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
      TK Shoun Maru, Shell hits 24, and is sunk
      TK Yamamiya Maru, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
      TK Oyashima Maru, Shell hits 39, and is sunk
      TK Tsuruha Maru, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires
      TK Sansho Maru, Shell hits 46, and is sunk
      TK Chuko Maru, Shell hits 24, and is sunk
      TK Namba Maru, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Urato Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Chinkai Maru, Shell hits 20, and is sunk
      TK Shichiyo Maru, Shell hits 32, and is sunk
      TK Hirota Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Azuchisan Maru, Shell hits 21, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Nishi Maru, Shell hits 32, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
      TK Bushu Maru, Shell hits 18, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      TK Mayasan Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
      TK Kinmo Maru, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
      TK Kyokuzan Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
      TK Kurogane Maru, Shell hits 21, and is sunk
 
Allied Ships
      CA Pensacola, Shell hits 2
      CA Quincy, Shell hits 2
      DD Cowell
      DD Nicholas
      DD Sampson, Shell hits 4
      DD Anderson
      DD Dunlap
      DD Perkins
      DD Flusser
      DD Selfridge
      DD Nizam, Shell hits 4
      DD Norman
      DD Paladin, Shell hits 1
      DD Racehorse, Shell hits 1
      DD Rapid
      DMS Hamilton, Shell hits 3
 
 
 

[Smeulders]

[X(] Is the only appropriate response to that, that's a very strange move.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

5/29/44 and 5/30/44
 
I had a disastrous day at work today.  I somehow managed to click a series of buttons that pretty much wrecked our website.  The good news is that I'm the boss, so I won't be fired.  The bad news is that I'm pulling my hair out trying to fix things.  I'm making some progress, but -oy! - what a day.

I friend of mine at work some years ago told me a story from another company. He was handed a new employee to work for him, a gentleman just emigrated from Russia and with extensive computer experience. Needing to run off to a meeting, my friend pointed him to some system operations manuals and told him to look them over until he came back and could spend some time with him.

The gentleman sat down at the system console, opened up the command language reference manual (an A through Z dictionary of system commands), started on page 1 and began typing in commands...

[Canoerebel]

5/31/44 and 6/1/44
 
What an odd turn with lots of carnage and oddities...and it all came about because Miller thought I was invading Balikpan, I didn't think he'd send his carriers into the Makassar Strait, and he apparently thought his vast tanker fleet was safe.  The skinny:
 
KB at the North of the Makassar Strait:  Takes station around Jolo on day one, and probably a bit further south day two.  Too far away to mess with the Allied carriers, but close enough to hit some transports and combat ships.  The KB used up some sorties and lost a nominal number of aircraft.
 
Donggala:  The essentially unprotected Allied invasion fleet at Donggala wasn't really molested on the first day, but got clobbered on the afternoon of the second.  The Allies will lose a modest mixture of xAP, xAK, LST, DE and similar ships.  But the Allies had time enough to land 300+ AV.  The garrison is about 110 AV, so that bodes well.
 
Balikpan:  I had things set up for my carriers to move well to the south with some combat ships heading into port looking for transports.  My main objective was to try to sink ships so that my carriers wouldn't waste sorties on them.  I got a few ships and carrier air got a bunch.  But for some reason some of my ships hung around (they were to retire to Kolako in southern Celebes).  I lost a few ships including CA Baltimore and a DD or two.  A CVL also took a hit.  Not sure how a CVL ended up there yet.
 
Banjermasin:  But the main action happened at Banjermasin, where Allied combat TFs and carrier air just ripped apart the Japanese tanker fleet.  I mean, how many tankers do the Japanese get?  Miller must've lost 40 plus a few other odds and ends.  What was he doing here?  Japanese LBA sortied in number sufficient to wear out Allied CAP and score a few hits against a few scattered ships.  The Allies began landing at Banjermasin (I had sent the APA ahead to get a head start).  This will be a tougher battle.  Miller has 200 AV present.  I landed about 40 with plenty more available tomorrow, but I'm not sure I can risk hanging around - the Allied carriers may be running too low on sorties now (they were at 82% after the previous turn).
 
The Skinny:  Unless the Allies foul things up and come out on the losing end of a big carrier battle, this has been a great victory....I think.  I am assuming that the loss of this many tankers is a great blow to Japan.  I probably ought to pull my ships out, get them refueled and reprovisioned, and then go from there. 

[Canoerebel]

I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.
 
Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?
 
What was Miller thinking?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, I've just started reading the combat report.  I understand why the following combat took place - two sides sent ships to the same port - but I DON'T understand what the heck this Japanese armada was doing near the front lines.  Get a load of this:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Bandjermasin at 61,102, Range 6,000 Yards

It may not be too much of an overstatement to say that the war ended today.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.

Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?

What was Miller thinking?

WOW. That was NUTS! Why would they be at Banjermisan? Maybe to suck the Oil/Fuel overland from Balikpapan? That's all i can think of. Either that, or Miller was parking them temporarily to wait for something to clear, and forgot about them.

The only reason to have a TF that large is to avoid subs. Defeats the purpose though if they are ANYWHERE near an Allied warship, very foolish to keep them together.

Losing that many tankers is bad, but looking at the list, there are some Mediums in there, alot of them are Std A/B/C/D conversions. I think the Japanese can afford alot of tanker losses, because in 1943/1944 between TK builds and the conversions there are alot being built. I'd be curious to know how many other tankers he has lost, but if this is most of his losses for the game, he'll be fine IMO.

[Ketza]

Wow

That would be a wtf moment if I saw that in a combat report.

[Canoerebel]

To close for the day....tomorrow I have a very, very difficult decision to make.
 
Some of my carrier TF mission sorties were as low as 82% following the "Balikpan Transport Shoot" that occurred two days ago.
 
Following the "Banjermasin Turkey Shoot" of the past two days, I suspect that has fallen to 65%.
 
I also have a few damaged carriers - one CVL took a bomb and one CVE took a torpedo.
 
My carriers are a little far forward near Banjermasin.  The closes friendly ports are Kolako and Watampone on Celebes, but both are relatively small (level four and level two airfields, respectively).
 
If Miller comes "full speed ahead," he will catch my carriers and pilots a little fatigued.
 
I haven't seen the precise location of the KB yet, but I think it's near the upper end of the Makassar Strait.  I'm at the bottom end.  So if I retire, the first day the KB shouldn't be able to get close enough to fight.  But the second day could be a different matter.
 
I'll have alot of orders to issue.

[JohnDillworth]

Wow, weird Bad luck or not Miller had no reason to have that many tankers in a single, or even 5, task forces. I have never seen or read about a worse result. I guess the only saving grace for Miller is that he was not going to have much use for those tankers for too much longer. I don't know how many tankers he has but it almost considers a change in strategy. You need not deny him the oil, he can not ships. I know tankers burn easy but how your task force did not run out of ammo is beyond me. I have enjoyed this AAR, but this game is over. Miller has done a great job of preserving his carriers, but to no avail. Finish the job, bomb the remaining oil resources into submission, kill his industry and let the strategic bombing begin.

[Ketza]

If the tanker loss is as bad as most of us think it is I would guess he will come at you with KN full throttle. Maybe it was even a trick or elaborate plan.

[paullus99]

He really might not have all that much left to lose - I would expect he may come after you with full guns blazing now, so pulling the carriers back closer to LBA isn't a bad idea.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.

Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?

What was Miller thinking?

Dan,

This was huge. Inexplicable, but huge. I don't see how he can go on for more than a couple months or so. You've effectively destroyed his connection to oil from the DEI. Fuel can still be gotten with inefficient xAKs, but no more oil. Bye bye.

Well done. [&o]

[witpqs]

How could they end up at that port? They can't load there.

- Closest port he thought you would not air attack, so as to protect them until they could get away?

- An AI or rather A unI thing, where sometimes a TF will flee to avoid a perceived threat?

Any comment from him?

[Canoerebel]

Here's Miller's reply to my question about what happened:
 
"They were loading fuel when your carriers showed up, I decided to flee when perhaps I should have disbanded them in port but its too late to worry about that now. The result of the suface combat was a joke, but if they had not killed them yout carrier a/c would have."
 
 

[JeffroK]

I thought Knavey posted this and I was looking through my books for the IRL incident.[:D]

As for the combat result being a joke, 2 CA & a dozen DD deserve to make a mess of fragile, partially loaded TK left in the front line.

(Maybe he previously dropped some fuel there and needed it to keep KB on the road)

[Canoerebel]

5/29/44 and 5/30/44
 
I lost track of the correct date in my AAR yesterday due in part to the disaster at work and in part to the mayhem in the game.  Anyhow, the dates on this entry are correct.  I should also note that my preoccupation with work led to a failure to check all settings in the game, which resulted in some short term problems but probably some long term benefits.  Alot to discuss following yesterday's "Borneo Tanker Shoot."
 
Borneo Tanker Shoot:  The clash occurred off the southeastern tip of Borneo.  It seems that Miller had a ton of TK and AKL at Balikpan at the same time he thought the Allies were invading Mindanao.  When my ships suddenly moved south into the Makassar Strait, he ordered most of his to weigh anchor and head for Java.  But my combat ships caught up with the tankers and, as noted above, decimated them (with some help from Allied naval air).  Over four days, the Allies destroyed well over 100 ships around the Balikpan to Banjermasin arc.  Of the 50+ tankers destroyed, about half seem to be 8-pointers and the other half 2-pointers.  So these weren't gigantic ships.
 
KB:  Ended up between Balikpan and Tarakan.  As noted, Miller's carrier air knocked out a CA Baltimore, a DD or two, and some troop transports at Donggala (but not before they unloaded 90% of the troops).  His carriers are in position to intercept vulnerable Allied transports at the bottom of the Makassar Strait if he wants to give chase.  I think, but I'm not positive, he'll elect to do so despite the threat from subs and the Allied carriers. 
 
Air Losses:  Over the two-day turn, the Japanese lost 400 aircraft - mainly LBA.  The Allies lost about 100 - mainly carrier air.
 
Allied Carriers:  I had ordered the Allied carriers to take position near Banjermasin to protect the various amphibious TFs....but here's the one place my work situation really hurt me...but helped me.  The carriers are all set to follow TF 138, a combat group.  I forgot to set TF 138 to remain on station.  So the carriers provided CAP for one turn, then retired toward Darwin, making it almost to Ruteng, an Allied base on the western tip of Flores.  That's really fortunate because it means that my carriers are not at risk of interception, as they would have been were they still around Banjermasin.  My carrier fighter squadrons are down to about 75% strength and strike aircraft are down to 60% mission sorties.  I'm also distant from any bases large enough to provide stout land-based CAP.  These factors mean my carriers shouldn't chance a fight with the KB.  That, in turn, means I must leave the transport TFs uprotected.  The carriers will sprint for Darwin to replenish and replace lost aircraft.
 
Carrier Attrition and Condition:  The Allies will probably lose CVE Saginaw (she was providing CAP for a transport TF and wasn't part of the main carrier force).  One CVL suffered light/moderate damage and remains part of the main force.  As soon as my carriers replenish, they'll be back on the hunt.
 
Transports:  The Allies have a bunch of transports out in no-man's-land - the group that was loaded with troops for Dadjangas and the group loaded with troops for South Borneo.  I have divided these into various fast and slow groups and all will make their way as best they can for ports on Timor.  If the KB gives chase I will probably lose a bunch of these, but they do have a fairly decent head start.
 
DEI/Philippines:  Miller has created so many heavily garrisoned bases with such a vast network of interlocking airfields that I am nearly convinced that trying to force my way to the South China Sea via the northern route (Tarakan to Miri arc) will be prohibitively expensive (you guys have been telling me this for weeks, but I'm stubborn).  I'm not quite as sure about the southern route (South Borneo).  Recon also shows that Balikpan and Samarinda are stoutly garrisoned.  Taking all this in, I have decided to transfer the two Army divisions at Darwin prepped for Balikpan to southeast Asia.  I have enough troops in the DEI to continue offensive operations there, and I think I can put those two divisions to better use in SEAC.  The Allies will continue offensive operations to keep up the pressure.  I have a large army prepped for Makassar and will proceed against it next while, at the same time, finishing off Kendari in the coming weeks.
 
Thailand:  The fall of Tavoy has freed up troops to assist in the siege of Bangkok and to move on Nikon Richtisima, an important crossroads city to the east.  The Allied troops surrounding Bangkok will go ahead and move into the city.  They will try a probing attack to determine if conquest is possible within a reasonable time.  If so, the siege continues.  If not, I will strip part of the army (leaving a holding force in place) and send it east to try to push to the Vietnamese coast.
 
Balance of Power:  The weird battle of the past four days has not been as lopsided as it seems what with the Allies losing CA Baltimore and, in all likelihood, CVE Saginaw.  And yet it seems to have been a staggering blow to the Japanese.  The Allies are right on the cusp of closing down several major oil and resource centers due to proximity to new and growing Allied bases.  The massed Allied carrier force is at least a match for the KB - if not superior - as long as I don't blunder into a massed LBA/KB ambush. 

[Canoerebel]

5/31/44 and 6/1/44
 
Disengagement can be very difficult and messy, but the Allies succeed with losses that are acceptable considering the circumstances:
 
Surface Action:  I sent several CL/DD TFs north through the Makassar Strait in case the KB moved south.  I figured an intercept in the narrows might prove useful.  No KB, but there is sharp action with a Japanese CA/DD force.  The Allies lost about ten DD (some of those were damaged ships later sunk by carrier aircraft.  The Japanese lost about half that many and had at least one CA set afire.  The IJN CA force had previously finished off a bunch of the damaged Donggala invasion transports.
 
KB:  The KB pulls back to Tawi Tawi with one CVL taking a torpedo from a USN sub.  Carrier aircraft sortie vs. the Allied DD TFs and against shipping at Manado.  The Japanese lose a number of aircraft to the stout CAP over that base.
 
Allied Shipping:  LBA hammered quite a few transports that were fleeing toward home and also applied the coup-de-grace to CVE Saginaw.  Overall, though, the losses were much less than what I had feared.
 
Allied Carriers:  Will spend a few turns at Darwin replenishing and then will embark for the waters around Banjermasin.  I will be looking for opportunites to hit Japanese shipping, destroy enemy LBA, and cover transports bringing in the troops that will move on Makassar.
 
Kendari:  Forts dropped to two after an Allied deliberate attack.  This base will fall within ten days.
 
Donggala:  Allied troops got 1:2 attack odds but inflicted far, far more casualties on the Japanese suggesting that the force at hand will be sufficient to take this base.
 
Summary:  The Allies ending up losing a bunch of ships because I could not keep the carriers in place to provide CAP.  After my carrier air sank 100+ ships in four days, I was running low on sorties and had lost about 25% of my fighters (planes lost to the enemy, ops, or down for maintenance).  I couldn't chance a clash with the KB on those terms.  Given those circumstances, I am satisfied with the overall results of the Battle of the Makassar Strait.

[JohnDillworth]

Slightly off topic. Are the Replenishment CVE's of much use? you seem to be pulling back to bases for replenishment. Just wanted to know if they can keep your carriers "topped off" with aircraft.
thanks

[Grit]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I counted nearly 50 tankers sunk or very heavily damaged in the list above.  There were another dozen or so hit by carrier air during that day and the following day.  Might have been some duplicates, but fair to say Japan lost 50 tankers.

Q-Ball (and other IJ players), how does that affect Miller?  Does he have enough tankers to absorb the blow, big as it was, and fight on?  Or is this crippling?

What was Miller thinking?

My only question, are you going to let the Emperor stay?