Basejumping the Learning Cliff - Cribtop(J) v DSwain(A) No DSwain Pls

[Cribtop]

Jan 28, 1942

Subs

A Mabel reports a hit on an Allied SS near Pescadores. Triton duds against an xAK ferrying construction units to Rabaul.

4th Fleet

The Op BC force sails for Kwaj, where it will join an LCTF and an ASW TF for the run into the targets. We will drop off an SNLF company at Jaluit and lift the Naval Guard unit that starts there as this NavGd has been prepping for Canton.

SE Fleet

New Hanover Island is occupied. Whee. We begin bombing the survivors of PM into oblivion.

16th Army

The armada is almost gathered and we are loading troops for the seizure of Ambon. We will detail the new look of Mega KB (abbreviated MKB henceforth) in an upcoming post, but in general plans call for two Carrier Divs with 3 CV, 2 CVL, 2 BB, 3 CA and at least 6 DD each (the R&D boys suggested creation of "Mecha KB," which could morph into a huge robot equipped with missiles and the ability to walk on either land or sea, but we thought they had been watching too many Godzilla movies [;)]). The formation of MKB will result in a new look for Southern Fleet, with a massive SCTF formed out of the previous Sulu Sea, China Sea and Siam Sqdns and commanded by Tanaka. To avoid confusion between names of HQs and their Fleets, we will re-name this Southern Fleet the Indes Fleet. In addition, the SE Fleet TF will be re-named as the South Seas Fleet, and 4th Fleet TF will be re-named the Marshalls Sqdn.

At Manado, much of 22nd Air Flotilla is flown in, the rest should arrive tomorrow. Then we will fly in a construction unit to assist with sweeping B-17 bombs off of the runway. Speaking of our large friends, we had Zeros and Claudes waiting on CAP but no one shows up to play. Why Claudes? This is the Chutai that gets withdrawn on Feb 10th and we didn't bother to upgrade them. In Tokyo, 36 new Zeros are distributed to the Claude units that started the war in the Marshalls. 9 will head to the Marshalls while 27 will be sent to 16th Army AO under command of 11th Air Fleet, which is on transports and will occupy Ambon once this base is taken.

The last few days' delay have been irritating, but we are about to drop the hammer on the eastern DEI.

We DA by accident at Cagayan, forgetting to take an engineer unit off DA orders. The result is a fort dropped in a low odds attack. Will have to apologize to DSwain for that as I consider this a bit gamey (although of course we didn't intend to do this). Lesson for new players - if you order a deliberate attack and then change your mind and set all units to bombard, tanks and engineers will still be on deliberate orders! We knew this but just forgot an engineer was in the stack. Oops.

25th Army

Johore Baru falls. We will gather 25th Army (trailing elements no more than 2 hexes out) here for the push into Singapore. We got to Singers about as fast as one can walk down the peninsula, but it just takes longer in AE. This is probably more accurate than in WitP, but if you want to take Singers early you pretty much have to employ the Mersing gambit. In retrospect, given the emphasis DSwain put on this part of the map, we are glad we didn't go for Mersing.

China

DA Nanyang: Forts dropped to 1, 5:1 odds - Nanyang falls! Banzai! [&o] Casualties are 10,772(728) vs 512(3). This capture pretty much achieves our war aims for North China. We will put things in a state of defense on the plains and move excess units south. The enemy's forces up here have been well and truly thrashed. Cribtop HQ will consider a thrust to Sian for the 21 Oil, but frankly slogging through all that rough terrain and creating a salient in the line may not be worth it, especially if we get there and destroy 90% of the oil facilities when the base falls.

[witp1951]

Appreciate your AAR Cribtop. I don't have a lot of experience so I tend to lurk. Keep posting!

[Cribtop]

Thanks Witp 1951! Lurking is a-ok, just wanted to make sure this was still of interest to folks.

PS - My aunt lived in Tennessee for a long time before making the inevitable retiree pilgrimage to Florida.

[Deathtreader]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

OK, I see the page views going up, but posts are few and far between. If you like this AAR, please sound off!

Present and (now) accounted for...........

Play on!!

Rob.

[witp1951]

Yeah, I like this AAR because the posts are pertinent and there are no pointless posts...errr, oops.

[Cribtop]

Jan 29, 1942

LOL, 1951.

Subs

Today three USN subs attacked three IJN ASW TFs (one at Babel, one at Mussau Island and one off the Inland Sea). All three attacks miss or dud, all three revenge DC attacks are ineffective. Weird how things like this happen. At least we know our ASW TFs are hunting in the right places. Today we launch our first fleet sub into the Indian Ocean as planned. More to come.

I am having an oddity occur. My sub transport TF bringing supplies to Kuching suddenly refuses to load supplies at either Miri or Brunei. I tried disbanding and reforming this turn, but I really need this to work. Any idea why the TF won't load?

SE Fleet

Enemy bombers from Oz raid PM! B-17E, LB-30 and B-26 are all in the strike package. The raid is only slightly effective, but it's the promise of more to come that worries Cribtop HQ. We will move some Zeros to Lae and LRCAP. Eventually, we will move the Zeros into PM (once another unit gets to the AO).

16th Army

We launch the invasion fleet towards Ambon. A truly massive force sorties, with dispositions as follows: CarDiv 1 (Nagumo) - Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Ryujo, Hosho, 2 Kongo class BBs, 3 CA, 1 CL (Kitakami for the AA), 6 DD; CarDiv 2 (Abe) - Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiryu, Zuiho, Shoho, 2 Kongo BBs, 3 CA, 1 CS, 1 CL, 6 DD; Indes Fleet (Tanaka) - 3 BBs, 8 CA, 14 DD; an LCTF of 3 CL, 6 DD and an ASW TF with 2 DD & 2 SC. Finally, an FT TF for Kendari is loading at Babel as well. That ought to do it. [:D] We develop carpal tunnel making sure all the search and attack air units are filled up and ready to go.

We toy with the idea of sending MKB on a bit of a raid towards Timor after the invasion, but are limited by lack of recon.

On Mindanao, we DA and take the place in one shot. Banzai! Engineers drop the forts to zero, we get 2:1 odds, casualties are 4960(550) vs 538(4). This victory ensures Mindanao will be ours and more importantly will release the two brigaes of 38th Div, which are prepping for Macassar and Koepang.

Recon from Jolo starts probing the "middle Philippines" for secret hideaways. We will soon release a large SNLF to start cleaning up this area.

Finally, far away in Korea, the last units of 20th Div will be bought out tomorrow and loaded for Babel.

25th Army

We ground attack Singapore and the troops shoot back with lots of flak. We will move up to 18K ft and continue - the whole point is DIS. 25th Army will be ready to move over to the island fortress soon.

Burma

Our fighters are gathering at Tavoy and Rahaeng. The Tojos will arrive tomorrow and we will begin to wrest air superiority away from the enemy. 15th Army moves into the hex between Moulmein and Pegu. We will march two regiments to flank this position to the north. DSwain will either ignore us and slowly lose his LoC or will react and weaken Pegu. This front is a bit dicey, we wish we had another division.

China

Basically reorganizing our defense in the north and identifying troops to move south. Significant reinforcements are due in this theater soon.

Other

Recently upgraded Zeros move toward Babel and Kwaj. A lot of Pete/Dave/Alf units arrive in Tokyo to upgrade to Jakes.

[Cribtop]

Jan 30, 1942

Subs

Ace sub I-155 tries for a TK convoy near Muntok but is chased off by DD Scout. I-16 sinks xAK Admiral Halstead near Noumea. This is only the second nibble for our subs in the South Seas in as many months, but is evidence supporting Sigint showing that DSwain is building up Auckland and, to a lesser degree, Noumea.

SE Fleet

Zeros are waiting for the 4Es over PM today, but the enemy doesn't show up.

14th Army

Our IJAAF bombers are watching Bataan harbor for single ship supply runs. This results in a daily routine of AM phase Nav Attacks on two AMs in the hex, followed by PM phase airfield attacks on Clark. Today a Lily gets lucky and sinks AM Bittern and our bombers take Clark to 100% Airfield damage. We will start on Bataan's AF next.

16th Army

Our massive armada moves into D minus 1 positions off Ceram. MKB is set to Nav Attack with the Kates on Nav Attack/Airfield Attack Ambon. I hate to bomb a field we want to use, but DSwain has enough planes there to make this move necessary. Although capturing Kendari hasn't worked well for us overall, it has left Ambon isolated from supporting bases, which will help this invasion.

We have finished moving the Air HQ to Manado. 2nd Raiding Regt and 8,000 supplies are unloading as well. Netties and Zeros move into the base, greatly extending our LBA coverage over the Ceram and Banda Seas just in time for the big op. If DSwain tries to react to the invasions of Ambon and Boela he will get a faceful of LBA and CAG. Unfortunately, he is probably too cagey and will await our moves on Timor/Makassar/Balikpapan. Are the enemy CVs still around? What will DSwain do once he knows KB is in the area? How badly hit is the Lexington? Our nav search patterns between Timor and Ceram are such we know they aren't in the immediate vicinity, but how far away are enemy naval assets exactly?

In addition to all this, we have a little surprise cooking in this AO. If only our recon tomorrow shows us what we hope it will...

25th Army

We bomb troops at Singers and gather at Johore. Crossing will begin not later than Feb. 1. IJAAF bombers go in unescorted for the second day in a row despite over 80 Nates at Kuala Lumpur on "Escort: Singapore" orders. [:@]

Burma

The enemy shifts to bombing our troops outside of Pegu, and intel shows the number of enemy LCUs has increased quickly in this base. We suspect reinforcements from northern Burma have railed in. Hmmm....

Our air offensive will have to wait another day as two Tojos were dinged transferring to Tavoy. We have a lot of Dinahs on recon building up a good picture of the enemy in southern Burma. These planes have been released from 25th Army as there is only one base left in Malaya to recon.

Other

Our first crop of new pilots is just about ready to transfer into reserve but we will wait a day to keep pilot training costs for January low (sort of a lay away plan).

Saigon makes lvl 6 AF, Rabaul makes lvl 5 (we are going to lvl 7 at these two bases to allow front line units to upgrade).

[Cribtop]

Jan 31, 1942

A turn that starts quietly, then heats up in the air phase!

16th Army

All the action is in the waters around Ceram and Celebes. A Betty on nav search hits an xAK loading survivors of the Dutch Kendari garrison at Kolaka. A Betty raid there in the AM phase sinks AM Pieter de Bitter but fails to hit the transports. In the PM phase, Betties return and sink xAK Van Imhoff and torpedo xAK Hong Siang. At Makassar in the PM phase, there is no CAP despite numerous Allied planes reported at the base. Betties sink xAKL Buijskes. At both Kolaka and Makassar, the combat reports show troops losses. Banzai! The seas around Celebes and Timor are no longer safe for the enemy. The lack of a CAP at Makassar is significant as we planned to drop 2nd Raiding Sentai on the base in a surprise bid to destroy the Banshee unit stationed a the base. Alas, Makassar is 15 hexes from Manado and only one of our transport units has the reach. Sigh.

At Ambon, 9 Vals from MKB sink xAK Itola in the AM phase. In the PM phase, hundreds of Kates raid the airfield, destroying at least seven enemy planes on the ground (probably more in truth, along with many others damaged with little hope of escape before the base falls).

Other

We receive lots of small air groups as reinforcements, along with about six brigades of infantry in China. These troops arrive at 77% strength, even though we have plenty of manpower in the pools. Is this just the way these troops show up or is this a sign we don't have our economy tweaked correctly? Either way, the brigades that arrive at Shanghai will release the 17th Div for duty with 13th Army in South China, while the brigades arriving at Peiping will allow an elite independent brigade from there to undertake the minor northern offensive in the works.

Our last 7 ACMs finish conversion and ship out to their ports. Boring but safe duty for the crews!

[Cribtop]

January economic analysis

As mentioned above, we are a little concerned about the units that show up understrength in China. Hmm....

We discover that our small expansion of Thalia production and the conversion of the Ida plant to C5M2 Babs is not repairing because the base (Gifu) doesn't have 10K supplies. We correct this with supply draw buttons.

A review of the production numbers (I do this pretty often, but only post about it once per month), reveals only 5 Naval SY points in the pool. We expand a few small shipyards (Toyama and Hakodate) to give us a little breathing room. Right now, Shinano is still halted, Junyo accelerated.

There is also a red X in the "failed" column for Jakes. What does this mean?

Finally, we will move a large crop of pilots into the reserve and re-fill our training units in the Home Islands. We are very pleased with the number of pilots that moved quickly into the 60s and better in just two months or so of training.

[Cribtop]

Feb 1, 1942

We are doing ok on our expansion so far, but need to pick up the pace. Today we begin that process as 25th Army marches for Singapore and Ceram is invaded in force.

Subs

We drop supplies at Kuching without incident.

4th Fleet

Our forces are closing in on Jaluit. Operation BC will kick off in a few days. Also, a Chutai of Zeros will arrive at Roi Namur soon (fresh from upgrading from Claudes in the Home Islands).

SE Fleet

We've been CAPing PM but no enemy bombers show. We ship about 20K fuel to Rabaul to allow it to serve as a submarine base. An AS, an AG and an AKE are present at Rabaul as well.

16th Army

Ambon and Boela are invaded. Ambon is defended by 150mm guns and they do some damage, sinking a DMS (we are losing too many of these ships, but its inclusion in the invasion force was justified as many mines are swept on the way in). On the whole, the troops get ashore in good order. We will DA Boela tomorrow but not Ambon. This is because: 1) we hope prior capture of Boela will cause a surrender at Ambon rather than a retreat; 2) 80th Regt has not finished unloading.

25th Army

The Army has gathered at Johore Baru and begins to cross the causeway. May fortune favor this venture, as the fall of Singapore will open up the final phase of conquest of the DEI (Java/Sumatra) and allow capture of Palembang, the "Spindletop of the East." The enemy's B-17s show up right on cue to bomb the Johore Baru airfield, but to little effect. We bomb the enemy troops in Singapore but our attacks hit the fortress and Far East HQ. Lots of planes are damaged by flak even at 18,000 ft, but few are lost. We will move up to 20k for these attacks.

Burma

The long awaited air offensive begins. We choose to sweep Pegu as fewer planes are based there than Rangoon. We hope to take on a smaller CAP, along with leaking CAP from Rangoon, thus winning a many on few battle of attrition. The first assault goes well, with losses in the replay 6:3 in a battle pitting Tojo/Oscar Ic against Buffalo/AVG/Hurricanes. The only disappointment is that we lose a precious Tojo. Several IJAAF companies are moving to Rahaeng to establish a larger fighter base here. The performance of the AVG today is poor - is pilot quality slipping due to previous losses in Malaya?

[Cribtop]

Feb 2, 1942

Page 4! Banzai!

Subs

I-166 guns and torps xAKL Nam Yang under the waves near Billiton.

16th Army

We unload and the enemy guns damage an SC. We will include bigger guns in our invasion TFs from now on (we have an 18kt CL and DDs) as the massive Indes Fleet does not deign to fire in support of the invasion. We had hoped to avoid blowing ammo on a bombardment but those guns must be silenced. Thus, we divided Indes Fleet, detailing 1BB & 4 CA to bombard. The bombardment is a little lackluster, but this is ok as we don't want to trash the airfield too badly. These ships will now have to return to Babeldoab to reload. [:@]

Boela falls, as does Sidate (we marched the Nav Gd unit from Manado here to secure the base, now they will march back).

Then, the surprise of the turn - an Allied shock attack at Kuching [X(]! This isn't totally surprising as DSwain assumes we are out of supply. However, we aren't, and the attack is shredded - 1:2 odds, casualties 164(9) vs 196(0) for us (I always list enemy losses, then ours for air/ground combat, FYI). This doesn't seem like a slaughter, but the enemy's LCUs are small and all are reduced to zero AV in the replay. It will be a while before DSwain tries this again. The only issue is that this battle burned up our carefully accumulated supply. We will load up an FT TF to supplement the submarine transport runs. Also, the enemy has been launching unescorted or minimally escorted bombing raids at Kuching. We move a Zero chutai to Miri to LRCAP Kuching and hopefully pick off some, err, flying Dutchmen. [;)]

Burma

A second sweep of Pegu is scrapped by thunderstorms over the target.

[Cribtop]

Feb 3, 1942

SE Fleet

The one day we let our Zeros pull back to Lae for a rest the enemy's 4E bombers return with a vengeance at PM. [:@] The raids are not hugely effective but the runway has taken 49 dmg. Very frustrating, but such is the game of cat and mouse. Perhaps DSwain will be emboldened and return tomorrow. If so, there will be a lot of A6M2s in the air.

16th Army

It's all about 16th Army AO again today. In the AM phase, Vals and Kates on nav search report enemy LSTs and xAKs at Boela! Is this a counter-invasion? If so, MKB will have something to say. We have no ships in the hex as the lightly escorted Boela invasion TF has retired toward Babel. Several enemy ships, including a PG and some xAKs, are reported hit by searching planes. What the hell is going on? What can DSwain be thinking here? In post turn replay e-mails, this proves to be a classic oops. DSwain had a few Dutch xAKLs pulling resources from Boela. He forgot to stop them at Darwin after their last run and they dutifully sailed into the teeth of the IJNAF. The PG appears to have been sunk in the search phase, xAKL Patris is nailed by Bettys in later phases. This game is funny sometimes, and it cheers Cribtop HQ a bit to learn that DSwain is human. He also admitted by e-mail that he doesn't keep close watch on or heavily escort his xAKs on supply runs, a fact which is appreciated by the so far very successful captains of our submarine fleet. [:D]

We DA at Ambon, forts drop to 1, 1:1 odds, casualties - 319(9) vs 203. One more attack or two should do it. MKB will bomb the troops with Kates tomorrow just to make sure. We have confidence to do this as our very extensive, overlapping search patterns reveal nothing but PT boats (and the doomed Dutch xAKLs) all the way to Makassar.

Burma

We sweep and bomb Pegu (using the recently "upgraded" Lilys at Bangkok). Results are mixed, with excellent sweep results (6:0 losses) and minimal effect from the bombings (maybe 12 runway hits overall from four Lily groups). We are concerned that the enemy will bombard Tavoy to get at our fighters. Precautions will be taken, including: 1) The Tojos rebase to Rahaeng; 2) we will move an air HQ and a Nell unit to Bangkok; 3) we will occasionally move the Tavoy fighters to Bangkok for a rest.

China

Cribtop HQ is gathering forces for a new operation in the south. It will take some time to assemble, but we should be able to move with about 4 or 5 division equivalents to seize the line of three bases with Kukong at its center. The enemy's concentration at Kukong, which we once feared, is clearly defensive in nature. We will engage in another "swinging gate" style op (see screenie below). Elsewhere, minor forces approach Kwangchowan and Pahkoi to seize the last enemy held ports in China.

Other

Fort increases today: Hankow, lvl 5 [&o]; Jaluit, lvl 3; Tavoy & Nanyang, lvl 2. In addition, Saipan increases its airfield to lvl 4.






1 = Current location of 13th Army HQ, in company with one division and one arty unit. Once reinforced, 13th Army will seize Kanshien, Kukong (the big fight as 20 enemy LCUs are present), then Wuchow.

2 = NCPC units will undertake "swinging gate" to close up with the enemy and establish a line south of the river.

3 = Numerous reinforcements moving by rail to Hangchow, they will have to march from there. This op will take a few weeks to prep and launch as a result.

Note friendly LCUs approaching Kwangchowan.

[Cribtop]

Feb 4, 1942

Subs

K XII torpedoes a PB in an ASW TF sent to hunt her off Saigon. How's that for ugly? The PB sinks, but her compatriots land two real hits on the sub. She may have sunk, but Cribtop Intel puts the odds at 50/50. S-41 is DC'd with minimal effect by escorts of the Ambon invasion TF returning to Babel.

SE Fleet

Storms in the PM hex prevent any allied 4E raids.

16th Army

We send E Tsuta and PC Kaki into Boela to hunt the lost enemy xAKLs. xAKL Bintoehan is hammered and probably sinks. Another xAKL slips away. An xAKL in the Ambon invasion TF sinks trying to make Ternate. Sigh. [:(]

The enemy raids Kuching, but our Zeros are ready. 2 Falcons are shot down, 4 damaged, along with 2 L-212s damaged. Subs will deliver more supplies to Kuching tomorrow.

MKB's Kates bomb Ambon's defenders, but it isn't enough. We DA, dropping forts to zero, 1:1 odds (we were 4 AV from 2:1 and a capture [:@]), casualties 648(13)/139(1). An SA at Taytay captures the base and causes a US base force to surrender. The SNLF unit at Taytay will be lifted and moved into Port Blair, freeing up 1st Raiding Regt for further mischief.

Burma

As expected, 2 British CLs bombard Tavoy. Damage is minor, a few Nates destroyed and net runway damage at 24.

Other

Loyang makes fort lvl 2; Manado fort lvl 1. The latter is more significant because it means we have repaired all AF and port damage than because we dug a few foxholes. AF lvl 4 is next for this base.

[Fletcher]

Excellent AAR !! keep the good work [:)]
Regards

[Cribtop]

Thanks, Fletcher! Will do.

Can't run the next turn until later today (parental lunch duties), so we will muse on where DSwain's carriers are now. Last seen in the western DEI wrecking our Kuching invasion, sigint and sub sightings indicated a likely initial port of call at Batavia. Since then, nary a peep except for a few sigint readings of "heavy volume of radio transmissions" at Perth and Auckland.

Cribtop Intel believes the CVs could only just have made Auckland even if they steamed every day since the recent battles. This is further discounted as it would represent a significant change in strategy for DSwain. That said, whether or not the Lexington was seriously damaged by the submarine attack, the enemy knows KB is now in the DEI. It seems unlikely that DSwain will risk his CVs in an unequal engagement, especially since we have strong LBA support out of Manado (and soon out of Ambon, future base of the 11th Air Fleet until we seize Timor). If Lex is hurt badly enough to require yard time, this calculation swings further against the enemy.

It seems the enemy has three options:

1) Stay in the western DEI under cover of LBA and hope for an opportunity to create mischief. The risk here is pretty high, as one misstep in the constricted waters of the DEI could bring about a carrier battle that DSwain probably doesn't want. Still, we in turn must be careful to stay under LBA umbrella in case he is this bold to ensure odds of success are high if a fight ensues.

2) Move to the East, say Sydney or Auckland and look for opportunities to create mischief. This is what many Allied players at this stage of the game would do, but DSwain's focus on the western side of the map puts this in some doubt. We have lots of subs in the Oz/NZ waters now hunting, but must be careful as a raid on the Solomons or even Rabaul is possible (or the Marshalls for that matter).

3) Move to the West, probably Colombo, or stop over at Perth while waiting to see what happens. Elements of Cribtop HQ argue that this approach is the most likely. While opportunities for raiding are more limited, it is consistent with the enemy's emphasis in the West so far. Furthermore, DSwain's CVs would be in position to support either a fortress Java, fortress Timor or fortress Burma approach (although the number of troops encountered in Burma so far is too small to believe he is pursuing this option).

Bottom line, we must consider that any of these three strategies are likely and take countermeasures against them. We need long range recon in the DEI to eliminate option 1 as a first step.

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

Just chiming in.

Your AAR is an excellent source of information and planning.

Keep up the good work!

[Cribtop]

Thanks, LoneGunman!

Unfortunately a good resource for documenting the occasional mistake, too. [8|]

Too late to post, but the game is 3 days ahead of the AAR - will get caught up soon. We have reached some key decisions in the interim on sequencing of major operations in the DEI, now that Ambon has fallen (oops, spoiler [;)]). As another teaser, 25th Army enters Singapore to a surprising result.

[Cribtop]

Feb 5, 1942

Subs

I-172 sinks xAKL Nevadan near Canberra. Our subs are taking the war to new waters in Oz and India. Sub transports re-supply Kuching. I-28 arrives at Tokyo and ships out for the Indian Ocean via Saigon.

SE Fleet

The Allied 4Es & B-26s return, but this time our Zeros are ready. Although several raids by LB-30, B-17 and B-26 get approx 49 runway hits, they pay dearly. The daily losses screen shows 7 B-26 shot down outright or lost to ops and several B-17 that didn't get home. AA units begin to unload in Rabaul and more will unload soon in Lae. Japanese AA is mostly for psychological benefit (unless they are deployed en masse), but I feel remiss in not positioning them at key bases. [8|]

16th Army

Similar to PM, LRCAP at Kuching swoops down on the daily strafing by Dutch Falcons and downs 4 of them plus one L-212. MKB's Kates launch a ground attack to soften up Ambon in preparation for today's shock attack. This attack achieves 18:1 odds; Ambon falls! Banzai! All seven defending units surrender because we occupied Boela. Casualties are 8019(730) vs 244(2). The operation to seize Ceram has gone off without a hitch. Well, except for the fact that DD Kuretake collides with an oiler in the MKB replenishment fleet loitering east of Morotai. The Oiler is almost undamaged; damage to the DD is minor but enough to sideline her for a few weeks at Babeldoab.

Burma

Tavoy is again bombarded by enemy CLs at night. Rangoon is just close enough that they can make the run back to air cover and rearm, then come back, night after night. We will move some Netties up here to "discourage" this practice and chase the enemy ships out of Rangoon. Although neither the base nor the fighters there have taken much damage from these raids, both damaged a/c and runway hits are creeping up, so we will have to shift air support assets and groups to Rahaeng. If Tavoy weren't so isolated we'd put mines, subs and/or SCTF in place for defense, but those options will take too long (although perhaps we can buy some PTs or mini-subs... hmmm).

Lots of air action in the AO. It starts with a small night raid on Tavoy. We sweep and bomb Pegu. Total losses in the sweeps are 3:3, the raid itself achieves little (we are having to rely on Lilys, remember). The enemy raids Rahaeng with a strong force. This is a concern, and DSwain is once again a step ahead of us in the air (more on this later). We lose two Nates on CAP and the airfield takes 33 runway hits.

Other

Manila makes a lvl 6 port; Munda a lvl 1 port (we need this improvement to finish landing the base force here).

Analysis

The enemy is consistently doing better than historically in the air. Several factors play into this, but the most important in the opinion of Cribtop HQ is that air strategy, particularly for the IJAAF, has been too much of an afterthought. DSwain is very good about having a network of bases with massed airpower ready to defend key sectors and also gets good effect from pounding bases we have recently captured before support and CAP arrives. Often we have nosed into an AO with ground forces without sufficient planning on where to locate base assets and air groups to contest and then achieve air superiority. This is a failing we must correct.

Several factors account for this: 1) our own planning deficiencies as per the above; 2) because we are on the offensive in general, the enemy has the advantage both of prepared positions and networks of mutually supporting bases; 3) the Japanese player is forced early on to advance on multiple fronts and is by necessity thin in places (for example our Sallys are in Luzon and Malaya, there are none to spare for Burma yet).

In fairness, it hasn't been all our fault. The one time we did bring two base forces to the initial landing and jump in lots of fighters at Kendari, we had a frankly ahistorical nuke bombardment that closed the base immediately. This in part falls under the "bad luck" category (although we should have LRCAPed from the safer Manado initially). In addition, the Buffalos in this PBEM are weirdly effective. Zeros maul them, but Oscars and Nates seem to do better against the AVG or Hurricanes than against Buffalos.

Finally, where we had an air plan and have concentrated our efforts, air supremacy has been achieved according to plan. For example, in Malaya we used Alor Star and Khota Baru to good effect and then pre-positioned base forces, HQs, AA and engineers to rail into Kuala Lumpur immediately upon capture. Likewise, we had good base plans and sequencing in Luzon and the SE Fleet AO where Rabaul was built up and occupied quickly.

Nonetheless, the air game has so far been a weakness. Air superiority is absolutely critical in AE, and we must do better. The first step, of course, is admitting you have a problem. The second is recognizing the causes of the problem. The third step is fixing the problem. We are somewhere between steps two and three. One decision - we are pounding airfields in Luzon to kill supply as a siege tactic and are unchallenged there. We will re-position Sallys to Burma in exchange for Lilys, which are better suited to the light duty in the PI.

[Cribtop]

Feb 6, 1942

A quiet day that ends with a bang.

SE Fleet

Two DMS sweep up the majority of the Allied mines still littering the harbor at Port Moresby. Another air raid there results in at least one B-17 shot down outright. Killing one of these beasts is so hard that it feels like hitting a capital ship with a torp when one is taken out. We notice that only B-17s show up today - apparently the B-26 have had enough after yesterday.

16th Army

We are pulling back to re-fuel and re-arm for the next op. Cribtop HQ orders that the next sub-element of Operation Katana will be the seizure of four bases - Samarinda/Balikpapan/Makassar/Bandjermasin. How this will be accomplished is rated Most Secret, but we will post a screenie on D Minus 1. In the meantime we will position Mavis at Ternate to perform long range recon of Timor. If this island is lightly defended, it will be next. If Fortress Timor is in play, we will divert our fleet to bring reinforcements to Kuching and finish what we started before returning in force to Timor (by then all elements of both 38th & 20th Divs plus several large SNLF would be available for the op). We are comfortable with this plan for operational sequencing and begin loading troops for the first endeavor.

25th Army

Our troops all cross the channel into the island fortress of Singapore on the same day, a pleasing occurrence. While we may have been a little weak in air ops so far, we have been strong on the ground, with successful encirclements and good selection of troops for missions.

The inevitable shock attack from the crossing is a surprise. We achieve 2:1 odds right out of the gate and drop fort levels by 2. Casualties are 4760(248) vs 3959(21). Banzai! [&o] This result is far better than expected and Singers is already doomed to fall in just one or two more attacks. We are likely to rest the troops for 2-3 days and then risk another SA as that may bring down the whole house of cards. The fall of Malaya in turn will release lots of troops for Burma, Sumatra and Java, and brings a large shipyard and base into the Empire. This result is a real shot in the arm. The only negative is that DSwain, ever the master of pulling restricted command troops out, has managed to evac the two Aussie Brigades for duty elsewhere. Wherever these crack troops are located will now be much harder to take. Cribtop Intel is beginning to bet on a Fortress Java. Timor may be a possibility, but there just aren't enough planes based there for us to think this is the enemy's main effort. Sir Robin is also still possible, but this is definitely not DSwain's style to date.

Burma

CLs Capetown and Caledon again pay a visit to Tavoy, but tonight there are no air groups present to receive a pounding other than a few damaged stragglers. The enemy shifts his bombing to Moulmein. Annoyingly, 3 Oscars set to range "0" CAP over Rahaeng leak over to be slaughtered by the vastly superior enemy force. [:@]

Other

TB makes a lvl 1 airfield. Our economy is humming along, with all major categories going up, including naval shipyard points and the C5M2 Babs factory at Gifu.

[Cribtop]

Feb 7, 1942

Subs

I-166 detects an SCTF near Toboali. I-157 is DC'd to no effect by enemy DDs guarding a tanker convoy near Muntok.

4th Fleet

Two construction units begin to unload at TB. The fleet moves into position for Op BC. We will get to within six hexes of both Baker and Canton. A small force will seize the unoccupied Baker while the majority descend on Canton. The purpose of these captures is to grab outposts, deny the enemy potential 4E bases in range of the Gilberts and to serve as canaries in the coal mine for the beginning of any offensive moves by the enemy in the Central Pacific. Mavis are ordered to recon Canton just to be sure the base hasn't been reinforced. We haven't done too much recon to avoid tipping our hand, but the last run showed just the original base force in position.

Nonouti is occupied. If only we understood what factors played into this it would save us a lot of clean up. Notice that we were occupying one base per day and now this is the first base occupied in about two weeks. This despite many dot bases adjacent to large troop concentrations in newly occupied areas with no enemy opposition. Weird.

SE Fleet

We finish clearing mines at PM. I-124 is bringing some red mines to this base just in case the enemy fleet pays a visit. Today we commit even more Zeros to CAP the base, but no one shows. Is the enemy resting, or did Thunderstorms over the base prevent a planned raid? Quien Sabe, as we say in San Antonio (Spanish for "Who knows?").

16th Army

We load troops for the next invasion and re-fuel the fleet. The ships that bombarded Ambon have re-armed and rejoin the Indes Fleet. Manado has been re-supplied and is now a strongly held position. Ternate is almost fully repaired and serving as a recon/seaplane base (an AV is moving in tomorrow to provide further support for the Mavis unit on Nav Search and Timor recon duties). We are moving 3 construction units, first to Manado, then Ternate, then Ambon, finally (when the neighborhood is a bit safer) Kendari. 11th Air Fleet will arrive in Ambon soon to provide another "torp enabled" base. So far, Operation Katana is going well.

An FT TF running supplies into Kuching bumps into an enemy PG and xAKL in the same hex. Both TFs withdraw, but the Allies flee and the FT TF gallantly drops much needed supplies in a later phase despite this distraction. Was DSwain re-supplying Kuching or was this an "underground railroad" convoy sneaking towards Bataan? Recall that we have 2 CL and 2 DD blockading the sea approaches to Bataan now.

25th Army

We launch a big airfield attack at Singapore to try to burn enemy supply and keep fort levels from repairing. The IJAAF performs well, with over 125 bombers causing 64 Runway, 14 Airbase and (perhaps most importantly) 5 supply hits. Another SA will go in on either the 8th or 9th. DIS is already down a lot from yesterday in the LCUs and supply levels are good. One evil thought for Allied players - consider waiting until 25th Army crosses the causeway and drop the US Marine Raiders into Johore behind them if the base is left empty. Could be nasty for the IJA. We may move an armored unit back to Johore Baru to cover this.

Burma

More air battles as 15th Army continues to move against the enemy's flank at Pegu (so far DSwain hasn't reacted to our flanking move yet on the ground). Tavoy is again bombarded to little effect. Nine AVG fighters sweep Rahaeng and find plenty of company. Replay losses are 2:1, but per the combat screen we got seven of the bastards between A2A and Ops losses. Banzai! The enemy then raids Rahaeng. While the bombing is generally ineffective, one of our precious and (temporarily) irreplaceable Tojos is shot down. [:(]

Other

Rabaul makes lvl 6 airfield, Tinian makes lvl 4 AF. Sigint reveals that Darwin makes lvl 4 and Koepang lvl 7! [X(]. A note on Rabaul - we are not generally keen on AF sizes above 4, but we need a few lvl 7s to allow for air group upgrades. Saigon is also heading for lvl 7 for this reason.

We begin placing mines and an ACM at Tshushima. Intention here is to close the entrance to the Sea of Japan for enemy subs.