Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Slightly off topic. Are the Replenishment CVE's of much use? you seem to be pulling back to bases for replenishment. Just wanted to know if they can keep your carriers "topped off" with aircraft.
thanks

I stripped the replenishment CVEs to convert them into regular CVEs. I had decided I needed the extra CAP more than I needed replacement aircraft. I never figured on running into so many transports that I'd experience significant attrition before Japanese carriers would arrive. But after four days of sorties, my pilots had pretty high fatigue anyhow, so I don't think it would've been wise to accept battle at that point.

[Canoerebel]

6/2/44 and 6/3/44
 
Poetic Justice:  CVE Makassar Strait just arrived at Portland - one of the few instances in the game in which a carrier bears a name for one of the battles fought between me and Miller.
 
Even More Poetic:  CV Taiho, which took two torpedoes near Mindanao just before the recent battle, took three more from Bowfin up near Formosa.  The aircraft loss table showed 72 planes destroyed "on the ground," which is confirmation that Taiho went under.  That's a big carrier gone and a more or less direct benefit of the recent Allied operation, weird as it was.
 
KB:  No sign of it - I think it may have change positions over to western Borneo, but that's just a guess.
 
Allied Carriers:  Two CVL in need of minor repairs will visit the ARDs at Darwin.  Four more CVEs have just arrived, though, so Allied carrier power is roughly the same as before the battle.  The carriers have already replaced torpedoe supply and aircraft, but a few TFs need another day or two to refuel.  Then it's back to the hunt.
 
Kendari:  Allied deliberate attack at 1:2 doesn't touch the forts, but inflicts more damage than they suffer.
 
Makassar:  33rd Infantry Division landed at Watampone (southwest Celebes) just before the craziness of the past week.  It has now moved southwest toward Makassar.  In doing so it has cut off the road to Makassar for three or four IJA units now stuck further up the peninsula.  This will make Makassar an easier nut to crack.  Some APAs and LSTs are shuttling troops from Ternate to Watampone (the Allies had three divisions there prepping for Makassar).  It will take about two weeks to get all the troops to Celebes.
 
Bangkok:  Most of the Allied army has arrived at Bangkok.  I'll try a probing bombardment tomorrow and, in all likelihood, a probing deliberate attack in three days.

[Canoerebel]

6/4/44 and 6/5/44
 
KB:  A sub sights the Japanese carrier TFs between Luzon and Okinawa.  I hope they stay gone.

Allied Carriers:  Rest and Refit at Darwin complete, but not orders issued yet.  I am deciding between heading toward Java on a raid immediately, or waiting a few days for the next Allied invasion force to assemble.  Two more CVEs just arrived.

Ground Troops:  I have begun the painful process of "re-directing" ground troops prepped for places like Dadjangas, Tarakan and Cotabato.  Now I'm concentrating on south Borneo (Ketapang, Sampit and Banjermasin) and east Borneo (Balikpan and Samarinda).  Yes...I realize I have changed my mind once again.  The arrival at Darwin of a third Infantry division (77th) prepped for Balikpan swayed me along with two other notions:  (1) fuel...fuel...fuel, and (2) Balikpan is pretty close to growing Allied bases.

Kendari:  The Allies will try another attack tomorrow.

Bangkok:  I moved 2000 AV into Bangkok from adjacent Ayuthia (not a river crossing).  Once that was done, I moved about 350 AV into Bangkok from across the river...and it resulted in a shock attack (not pretty for that unit)!  Hey, I thought no shock attack if 2/3rds of a force was already in the hex?  What gives?  Anywho, Japanese AV is about equal to the Allied AV.  I'll try one probing attack in a few days.  If Bangkok looks tough, I'll leave about 1500 AV in place and send the rest over to Nikkon Richtisima to try and blow a hole in the IJA line.

China:  Miller has had a Chinese army isolated between Nanning and Liuchow, but his occasional deliberate attacks are repulsed with disproportionate losses for the Japanese.  I have moved three additional units into the hex from different directions, so I *think* I have retreat routes open (just like I *thought* I knew the rule about crossing rivers?).

Points:  The Japanese lead is down to 8,500, but the decrease has been pretty slow.  Tough fought game.

[Q-Ball]

Not a bad idea on Balikpapan; without a fuel source, fuel is a constant problem in the DEI, because it's so far from Abadan/Los Angeles. If you get Balikpapan, though, worries over.

[Canoerebel]

6/6/44 and 6/7/44
 
Donggala and the Battle of Makassar Strait:  The Allies take this base, across the Makassar Strait from Balikpan, bringing an end to the Battle of Makassar Strait.  Here is a tally sheet for this battle:

1)  Carriers:  Japanese lose CV Taiho; a CVL takes one torpedo.  Allies lose CVE Sangamon and two CVL suffer light damage.
2)  Combat ships:  Japanese lose perhaps eight DD with one CA set afire; Allies lose CA Baltimore and perhaps ten DD.
3)  Transports:  Japanese lose 50+ tankers and 50+ transports (mainly xAKL).  Allies lose perhaps 25 transports (when I pulled my carriers back and left the transports to make it home on their own).
4) Aircraft: Japanese lost about 750 aircraft; Allies lost about 200.
5)  Troops:  Allies lose advance troops that landed at Banjermasin (about 40 AV that I had to leave behind when I pulled my carriers and transport out).  Japanese will lose all or most of 47th Infantry Regiment at Donggala.

Current Operations: (1) Kendari:  Should fall within ten days; (2) Makassar:  It will take the Allies a few weeks to ferry troops from Ternate, land at Watampone, and march to Makassar.  The Allies will have three big divisions 100% prepped vs. a garrison of 28,000, so this siege shouldn't take long.  Kendari and Makassar will give the Allies bases to bomb Batavia and Soerabaja.

Pending Operations:  The Allies have armies readying for two amphibious assaults.  These will take place sequentally under the protection of the carriers.  Either or both may result in another big carrier battle (or near battle), so implementation of the plans will depend on the outcome of any battle:  (1) South Borneo:  Troops prepping for Banjermasin, Sampit and Ketapang are mainly located at Lautem and Manado; and (2) East Borneo:  Troops prepped for Balikpan (3 US divisions) are mainly at Darwin, and troops prepping for Samarinda are mainly at Manado and Donggala.

Thailand: The shifting of troops from Tavoy bound for Nikon Richtisima is well underway with the advance echolon to arrive at Ayuthia, just north of Bangkok, in two days.  I have a feeling the Allies will be best served by checking the enemy at Bangkok and shifting as many troops into eastern Thailand as possible.  But I will try one probing attack at Bangkok to determine if there is an opportunity for a quick conquest (unlikely, but I need to check).

[Canoerebel]

After spending several hours itemizing troops and ships, which aren't in the right places at the right time very often, I have decided on the course of action in the DEI for the next two weeks:
 
1)  Troops prepped for Sampit immediately commence boarding transports.  They will depart in two days, will proceed immediately to the beach, and will be accompanied by the full Allied carrier and combat force.
2)  I am bypassing Banjermasin because I need time to prep additional troops since it is garrisoned by a brigade of 200 AV.
3)  While the Sampit force heads west, Balikpan-prepped troops will load.  These ships will head west and will be ready to hit the beach shortly after the carriers retire from Sampit.
4)  This is contingent upon the KB not interering, but we'll see.  I'll probably send a scout DD or two west from the Sampit invasion force and then north up the west coast of Borneo to see if they encounter the KB.  I don't want to be surprised in an area that will also be well-served by Japanese air bases.

[Canoerebel]

6/8/44 and 6/9/44
 
Sampit Invasion:  Carriers and combat ships depart Darwin and rendezvous with transports at Lautem.  Over the next two days the force moves west, to a point near Makassar, and will rendezvous with two more transport TFs.  D-Day is probably four days away.  If the KB is in the Philippines or further north, this should be an easy operation.  If the KB is in West Borneo or vicinity it will be ugly.
 
Kendari:  Allied deliberate attack comes off at 1:1, drops forts to one, and inflicts 3x casualties.  Allied troops will rest for two days, but should take the base in three days.  Kendari will likely become the Allied B-29 base, used to hit Soerabaja, Batavia, and other strategic targets the Allies don't plan to take in the near future.
 
Makassar:  Two divisions are ashore and waiting one hex from Makassar for transports to shuttle the third division (from Ternate).  The Allies will be moving on Makassar in about a week.
 
Bangkok:  Probing Allied attack shows Bangkok will be tough to crack in the foreseeable future (1:5 five forts with Allies suffering 3x casualties).  Accordingly, Allies will maintain force strong enough to pose threat and hold the Japanese in check, but other units will be diverted to Nikon Richtisima in eastern Thailand, with the Allies hoping to break through and threaten coastal Vietnam.

[Canoerebel]

I'm been commenting on occasion about the fact that CAP, no matter how strong, seems too permeable in this game.  I have made some recent comments to that same effect in Elf's AAR about flak.  Some folks poo-poo this notion, suggesting that even extreme examples of raids penetrating flak against all odds are within reason.
 
Well, take a look at this example (be sure to note the number of aircraft on CAP compared to the size of the raid):
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Bandjermasin at 58,101 
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5 Zero x 16
      J2M3 Jack x 8
      N1K1-J George x 6
      P1Y1 Frances x 43
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 25
      Seafire IIC x 6
      Wildcat V x 16
      FM-2 Wildcat x 355
      F4U-1A Corsair x 22
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 421
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5 Zero: 5 destroyed
      J2M3 Jack: 2 destroyed
      N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
      P1Y1 Frances: 19 destroyed, 4 damaged
 
Allied aircraft losses
      FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      CV Constellation, Torpedo hits 1
 
Occassionally you would expect leakers to make it through against all odds - perhaps cloud cover or catching CAP out of position or bad shooting or just plain bad luck.  But in my game this is the norm rather than occasional.
 
P.S.  I had the vast majority of the CAP staggered at 10k, 15k, 20k, and 25k with a few smaller squadrons set at 5k and 30k.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

6/10/44 and 6/11/44
 
Allied Carriers:  Despite the torpedo eaten by CV Constellation, I am pleased with this two-day turn.  The Allied carriers escort the invasion force to a point just a few hexes south of Banjermasin (to throw Miller off the scent as I recently aborted an invasion here after landing 40 AV).  I had set all strike aircraft to a range of four hexes to prevent them from going after small transport.  I didn't want them to get fatigued and waste sorites going after small game.  Tomorrow the carriers steam to a point west of Sampit where fighters will be set to 50% and 60% CAP levels.  I need to good days to get the invasion force ashore, then I can retire.
 
Sampit Invasion Force:  Looks to be in good shape to hit the beaches tomorrow.  I think I have an overwhelming force as recon shows two units 6K at Sampit.
 
KB:  No sign of it.  Last sighting was north of Luzon about a week ago.
 
Balikpan Invasion Force:  If the Sampit invasion goes well, the carriers will retire to the Banda Sea and rest the fighter pilots a few days, then escort the Balikpan invasion force to that target.  These transports will take station SE of Kendari while the Sampit invasion is underway.
 
Kendari:  Attack came off at 1:2 (that was a surprise) but inflicted far greater casualties against the Japanese.  This base will fall any day now.
 
Nikon Richtisima:  Miller has reinforced this base in eastern Thailand with an infantry division, so it's going to be hard to blast through here as I had hoped.

[AcePylut]

Weather in Hex: Light rain
 
So one crazy sob ducked into a rain shower that happened to spring up, got turned all around, exited the clouds and blessed be his stars he exited right in front of the American Fleet!

[Panther Bait]

He probably snuck through while the 800+ fighters on CAP were trying to avoid running into each other. And the carriers couldn't dodge because they were in constant air operations trying to keep the CAP up. [:)]

[Nemo121]

Hmm, you know, I seem to remember quite a few reports from the Pacific War in which small raids or small fragments of raids DID make it through to make attack runs... Just because something is deleterious to one's cause doesn't make it unfair or unrealistic.

I think that impermeable CAP is far less realistic than slightly overly leaky CAP - although I wouldn't be sure it is overly leaky. One example does not a statistically valid sample make.

[Canoerebel]

As I have pointed out over and over and over again, this is not an isolated instance.  I see this frequently in my game and in other AARs and in the flak thread posted by Elf.
 
I am NOT saying that this one instance indicates there is a glitch.  I AM saying that this is another in example of repeated instances of overwhelming CAP failing to stop a raid.  The fact that it was odds of something like 700 to 70 makes it particularly interesting.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies have issued orders for the next two-day turn featuring the invasion of Sampit.  Miller will have seen this force coming for days.  He may not be sure whether the target is Banjermasin or Sampit, but he knows the general vicinity.  I assume he will throw everything at me, but so be it. 
 
The Allied carriers will take station two hexes south of Sampit.  CV Constellation suffered moderate damage due to that torpedo, but can still handle aircraft, so I'm keeping her with the fleet.  All fleet carriers (CV and CVL) are set to 50% CAP.  Escort carriers have split CAP - some at 50% and some at 60%.  All strike aircraft are set to maximum range.
 
If the KB doesn't close, I will probably retire the carriers and the "premium" transports (the APAs will fully unload over the course of the two-day turn).  After the carrier pilots get a few days rest, the invasion of Balikpan will take place.

[Nemo121]

Aye but in the real war isolated kamikazes often got through in relatively similar circumstances ( vastly more fighters flying CAP than there were kamis )... If the escort left them they were often dead meat but if the escort occupied the Allied fighters for a while the kamis ( or normal raiders ) did on occasion get through... How many of the Japanese strike planes actually made attack runs, you've ommited that from the combat report.. Sorry but if CAP were as effective as you say I don't see how as many kamis etc as got through in real life would have gotten through. They got through in real life and so I think that argues that even the best CAP was somewhat permeable.

[JohnDillworth]

I think the odd dive bomber got through and certainly kamikaze's. But a torpedo run should have never have happened. Torpedo attacks are pretty sophisticated and require more time and skill than a plunging plane (Franklin is a good example, dive bomber got her), a torpedo bomber setting up in front of a carrier with massive cap and overwhelming AA including proximity shells is just not realistic this late in the war.

[Canoerebel]

6/16/44 and 6/17/44
 
Time Warp:  I somehow lost track of a few days here and there, so the last post was mislabelled 6/10 and 6/11 when it was actually 6/14 and 6/15.
 
Sampit Invasion:  The KB doesn't show, which is cause for celebration in the Allied camps.  The invasion force comes ashore in good order - it's 350 AV (four regiments, one tank unit, and arty) vs. an IJA regiment and change.  It won't be a route, but neither should the contest take long.
 
Allied Carriers:  Although I bumped CAP percentages up on the fleet carrier squadrons from 40% to 50%, the amount of CAP flown declined dramatically.  This is odd, but I've noticed it happening before.  It isn't pilot fatigue and all of my pilots are in pretty good shape (around 20%).  Not sure what's going on, but it makes me glad that the KB didn't show up.  A scattering of IJ land-based strikes came.  By the end, they were facing very meager CAP indeed.  This is a worrisome situation.  It means that any coordinated IJ land- and carrier-based strike will eventually overwhelm the CAP with multiple strikes coming in unopposed.  Food for thought.
 
Kendari:  The Allies take this base after a siege that lasted several months.  As soon as the airfield is repaired, B-29 squadrons will re-base here from Ceylon.  Strategic bombing of Soerabaja and Batavia will then commence.
 
Southern Borneo:  These cities (Ketapang, etc.) look pretty open.  Miller will probably have to commit the KB down here to halt Allied progress.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I think the odd dive bomber got through and certainly kamikaze's. But a torpedo run should have never have happened. Torpedo attacks are pretty sophisticated and require more time and skill than a plunging plane (Franklin is a good example, dive bomber got her), a torpedo bomber setting up in front of a carrier with massive cap and overwhelming AA including proximity shells is just not realistic this late in the war.

Not so sure about this. IIRC, the Judy was pretty darn fast in a shallow dive. The nature of the intercept-low level, high speed, difficulty in establishing an intercept vector with imperfect information, etc.-would make real life interception of a TB flying at high speeds problematic.

Of course, the problem with the Judy was that they tended to fly too fast for their torpedoes and / or the pilot would misjudge the closing rate to target or the height above the water. Many of them went 'splat' for this reason, rather than an effective CAP intercept.

[Canoerebel]

Whatever the analysis, I say that my ships should be immune from enemy attack!

[JohnDillworth]

Not so sure about this. IIRC, the Judy was pretty darn fast in a shallow dive. The nature of the intercept-low level, high speed, difficulty in establishing an intercept vector with imperfect information, etc.-would make real life interception of a TB flying at high speeds problematic.

Of course, the problem with the Judy was that they tended to fly too fast for their torpedoes and / or the pilot would misjudge the closing rate to target or the height above the water. Many of them went 'splat' for this reason, rather than an effective CAP intercept.

_____________________________

Did a Judy EVER make a successfully torpedo attack? Certainly not against a carrier and proably not against a capital ship. Don't know that it was ever done.