Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

7/23/44 and 7/24/44
 
The Allies continue to unload troops deep inside the DEI without interference from the KB, which reveals much about the Japanese situation:

Billiton:  A Japanese CL/DD force fought a smaller Allied CL/DD force at Billiton - with the Allies losing one ship and several more set afire; but the clash forced the IJN force to retire, permitting alot of additional troops to land at this key island outpost between Borneo and Batavia.  Miller will want to counterinvade, but the force already ashore is pretty stout.

Ketpang:  For some reason, only two of the Ketapang TFs reached that beach to begin unloading troops.  The main force is lagging, which creates headaches as I have to remain in theater.
 
Sampit:  The Allied deliberate attack at Sampit comes off at 1:2, doesn't touch three forts, but causes disproportionate Japanese casualties.  The Allies may well have enough on hand to conquer this island in a reasonable time.

Japanese Shipping:  The Allied carriers launched massive raids against a bunch of Japanese DDs in and around Soerabaja.  Pilot marksmanship was incredibly poor (as it has been all game), but in the end I think the Allies sank at least five DDs and damaged five more.

Allied LBA:  B-24s from Kendari and Maumere continued to target Soerabaja against moderate fighter opposition.

KB:  Miller says he hasn't committed his carriers because, by his count, the Allied carrier force has some 1,000 aircraft.  I don't think that's the problem - after all, he could probably commit more than 1,000 LBA in addition to the KB's aircraft and, as he well knows, Allied CAP has been quite leaky - almost porous -throughout the game.  Miller's been yearning for a fight on his turf for months, and now he's had the opporutunity for nearly a week.  So I believe he hasn't sought an engagement because he needed to retire to make good pilot and aircraft losses incurred on the KB's recent mission through the Makassar Strait.

Strategic Situation in the DEI:  The Allies are just about to take bases on the western Java Sea that will not only cut off Japanese from Soerabaja and Batavia, they are in close proximity to Palembang and Singapore, and they give the Allies access to the South China Sea.  This is THE time for a Japanese banzaii attack.  Miller CANNOT permit this to happen.  He's simply got to come after me.

Thailand:  Allied troops continue to move into Vietnam.  The Western Allies are bringing enough to take a firm grip of at least one base (probably Hue) and perhaps two (Vinh).  The Chinese should create some consternation around Hanoi.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

 
Strategic Situation in the DEI:  The Allies are just about to take bases on the western Java Sea that will not only cut off Japanese from Soerabaja and Batavia, they are in close proximity to Palembang and Singapore, and they give the Allies access to the South China Sea.  This is THE time for a Japanese banzaii attack.  Miller CANNOT permit this to happen.  He's simply got to come after me.

He's making a liar, or at least a poor seer, out of me. I agree, he has to go now or phone in the rest of the war.

Perhaps he's planning on losing, but having fun with kamis?

[Canoerebel]

I would wager two things:
 
(1)  Miller was forced to put the KB in port to replace lost aircraft and pilots (and perhaps to refuel), and
(2)  He's crossing his fingers and praying that the Allied carriers will remain in place long enough for him to get the KB back into the Java Sea.
 
Patrol aircraft have reported a bunch of DDs just west of Brunei/Miri.  If that's the KB it will easily arrive on scene next turn.  If it's not the KB then I am completely surprised by Miller's failure to fight like the Dickens.  It's out of character, for Miller is very good at tactical warefare and has been chomping at the bit for a chance like this for at least a year.
 
Whether the Allies will remain is now the question.  It's probably not even necessary, as I can't accomplish much else given good success in all but one frustrating way:
 
1)  Billiton:  All troops are ashore except some slow-unloading xAK carrying part of 6th Division.  I can afford to leave these low-value ships unprotected.  The Allies have landed 170 AV and will take this vacant 2/2 island tomorrow.
2)  Sampit:   All Allied forces have landed and all transports have retired.
3)  Ketapang:  Somehow, the main transport TF retired instead of heading to the beach (a failure to double-check or triple-check orders on my part).  This is frustrating, to say the least.  However, the Allies do have 150 AV ashore, which may be enough to take the base, which is held by just 2k troops.
 
I don't think I'll recall the main Ketapang transport TF.  These ships retired all the way to near Banjermasin and would take two or perhaps three days to make it back to the beach.  I think the Allies are better served retiring now and seeing what fruit the landings at these three bases might bear.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

IIRC, Vietnamese activation happens in 1942 or 1943; NOT 1944.

In WITP, activation gave the IJA 4 crappy militia divisions, but they were fully buildable to Square IJA Divisions; almost 2000 AV total. You don't want to trigger that.

Having got this far, having 4 units arrive at part strength at various locations shouldnt stop the steamroller that has cleared Burma & Thailand.

[Canoerebel]

I've issued orders for the next two-day turn.  Based upon the assumption that hanging around in enemy territory for six days is plenty long enough to give the enemy time to organize a counterstrike on his terms:
 
1)  All Allied transports (except a few xAK still unloading at Billiton Island) will retire towards Makassar.
2)  Allied combat TFs will do the same, though three of them will "visit" the various beachheads tonight in case those places are targeted by enemy TFs.
3)  The carriers will retire to a point just west of Makassar.
4)  The Allies should take vacant Billiton tomorrow.  This is already a level 2/2 base, so in two days the Allies will have PBY squadrons operating out of this base just a few hexes from Palembang and Singapore.  That ought to send a shiver down Miller's spine.  I think he's got to throw everything he has at Billiton, but we'll see.
5)  170 Allied AV will shock attack at Ketapang, garrisoned by just 2k troops.  This base should fall, but it is currently a level zero airfield so it'll take me some time to get it online.
6)  Allied troops at Sampit will rest a few days.  I think the Allies have enough ashore to do the job, and I doubt Miller will send reinforcements here when he has newere and more critical crisises at Billiton and Ketapang.
7)  The Allies have forces prepping for Tarakan (at Makassar) and for Banjermasin (at Lautem, Kolako and Kendari) so will be in position to mount new offensives as soon as transports arrive at those bases and as soon as the carrier TFs replenish fuel.
8)  Fuel is going to be an issue - my carriers have been at sea nearly continuously for months now.  The TFs are low on fuel and I only have about 100k in theater (at Darwin and aboard AOs).  Fortunately, that should be enough to handle what I have in mind over the coming two weeks or so.  But we need to take Balikpan to bring fuel production "local."
9)  CV Constellation is in the yards at Capetown (53 days on repair); Saratoga is 15 days from the Cape yards and should take about two months to repair; Intrepid is limping toward Lautem and should make Capetown in about a five or six weeks.  I think she'll be in the yards at least four months and maybe more.  Hancock just arrived at Panama City and is on the way to Tahiti.
10)  The Allies have definately broken through in Vietnam, though they aren't yet threatening one of the major bases like Hanoi or Saigon.  But Miller must be pulling his hair out trying to figure out how and where to stop them.  I hope the arrival of the Chinese near Hanoi in a few days will add to his consternation.

[Canoerebel]

7/25/44 and 7/26/44
 
DEI:  Allied troops take Billiton, which was unoccupied), and manage to wrest Ketapang from South Seas Detachment.  The Allies stage forward two PBY squadrons to Billiton (a level two airfield).  These aircraft patrol far into the South China Sea and nearly meet the search arcs flown by aircraft out of Rangoon.  I will be interested in seeing how Miller reacts.  The Allies will try a shock attack at Sampit tomorrow.  Finally, fast transport landed part of an Oz Brigade at base adjacent to Tarakan.  It appears vacant and should fall tomorrow.

KB:  No sign of it.

Allied Carriers:  Talk about poor marksmanship - more than 100 TBM and Helldivers sortie against various IJN DD TFs and manage two hits.  I wouldn't expect much against a fast, nimble destroyer...but, sheesh!  The Allied carrier TFs expend about 40% of missions sorties and lose perhaps 50 aircraft to score two (TWO!) hits?  Something's wrong with this equation (either the Allies are scoring too few hits or the cost - 50 aircraft against no CAP? - is way too high.  This makes me glad I had decided to recall the carriers, which took station near Makassar.  Tomorrow they head to Darwin.  If Miller throws everything against Billiton and Ketapang, I'll probably send the Allied carriers to support these critical bases, which have created a massive and dangerous "bulge" in the Japanese MLR.

Next Invasion:  Allied transports at Makassar may begin loading Tarakan-prepped troops in two days.  I need to get transports in place to load Banjermasin troops at Lautem, Kolako, and Kendari.

SEAC:  Two Chinese units arrived one hex from Hanoi, so unless Miller forgot to check that part of the map he now knows something is up.

[Canoerebel]

July 1944 has been a big month for the Allies. At the start, the Allies invaded Balikpan and Sampit with forces not big enough to take these bases from the garrisons. It looked like things would really bog down when the three Allied carriers took torpedo damage, forcing the Allies to pull back while the KB transited the Makassar Strait from the Java Sea to the the Philippines.

But the Allies quickly mounted five amphbious landings over the next three-plus weeks that took Samarinda, Billiton, and Ketapang, will take the vacant base south of Tarakan tomorrow, and strongly reinforced the Allied army at Sampit. The Allies are also reinforcing the army at Balikpan. This was done with essentially no damage to Allied aircraft, troops, or ships.

This map shows the new search arc coverage for Allied patrol craft in the southern reaches of the South China Sea.

The taking of Billiton and Ketapang and the threateded fall of Sampit creates a huge and strategically critical bulge in the Japanese vitals. Miller has to throw everything he has a the Allies now...or never.

[Q-Ball]

You probably can't be sure about shutting off the Oil, until you can get closer to Singapore, and/or get CVs roaming the South China Sea. I think it's possible still to pull out OIL/FUEL via ports further north, and Medan is definitely still open. Still, he has a real problem now. It's weird how close our games are developing, though the timeframes are different.

Is there anyone on Bangkha? How about a landing at Toboali, and overland march to the base at the top? That would put Singkep in easy reach, and pretty much shut down any Oil from the DEI.

Is he still lifting OIL from Brunei/Miri, or do you have that shut down? You will once Tanjerso-whatever, that base next to Tarakan, is big enough for SBDs.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

You probably can't be sure about shutting off the Oil, until you can get closer to Singapore, and/or get CVs roaming the South China Sea. I think it's possible still to pull out OIL/FUEL via ports further north, and Medan is definitely still open. Still, he has a real problem now. It's weird how close our games are developing, though the timeframes are different.

Medan can be a very large source of fuel if he wants to get it no farther than Singapore. He can base his remaining naval forces there--with fuel coming from his rear and under LBA, plus shipyards. Doesn't help the HI's needs, but sorties from Singers can still put the hurt on CR to the south.

CR--if you can, maybe you should now look at Great Nicobar Island, and see what you can do about pounding Medan/Sabang from even farther in his rear. I believe that Medan itself has next to no storage for Oil or Fuel. Sabang is the port-head for both. Sabang is easily reached from GNI. And from Port Blair with long-range LBA.

[Canoerebel]

The Port Blair invasion fleet is at sea even as we speak - it left Diamond Harbor four days ago and is steaming slowing east while waiting for a few additional TFs to join the show.  I'm a little worried about this move as I only have a CVL and a CVE providing CAP.
 
It will take me a few weeks or longer to really get a firm grip on Billiton/Ketapang/Sampit to the south.  To the north, it will probably be at least a month before the Allies can realistically expect to take Tarakan.  Once those two areas are up and running with good CAP and decent LBA strike aircraft, the Allies will control traffic out of all oil producing centers in the DEI except Brunei, Miri and Sumatra.  I may use 4EB to deal with Brunei/Miri, but it will take me awhile to be able to deal with Sumatra.
 
While I want to shut off Miller's access to oil as soon as possible an even higher priority is to enable the Allies to seize some big bases (or cities with big-base potential) on the China coast.  I want to be sending big Allied transports to places like Amoy before the end of the year so that the Allies can commence strageic bombing of the Home Islands by early '45.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[

Allied Carriers:  Talk about poor marksmanship - more than 100 TBM and Helldivers sortie against various IJN DD TFs and manage two hits.  I wouldn't expect much against a fast, nimble destroyer...but, sheesh!  The Allied carrier TFs expend about 40% of missions sorties and lose perhaps 50 aircraft to score two (TWO!) hits?  Something's wrong with this equation (either the Allies are scoring too few hits or the cost - 50 aircraft against no CAP? - is way too high.  This makes me glad I had decided to recall the carriers, which took station near Makassar.  Tomorrow they head to Darwin.  If Miller throws everything against Billiton and Ketapang, I'll probably send the Allied carriers to support these critical bases, which have created a massive and dangerous "bulge" in the Japanese MLR.

[

No, I have yet to have any major carrier or fleet actions in my game 10/42 but am growing uncomfortable with this. From the AARs I am seeing Japanese ship AA is just way to effective. I hope that it is being addressed.

[Canoerebel]

7/27/44 and 7/28/44
 
Sampit:  A 2:1 attack by the Allies dropped forts from three to one; the following day a 5:1 attack took this base.  This is a sudden change after the Japanese worked hard to bolster the original garrison and gives the Allies another base (with base force already present) on Borneo.
 
Tangoengelor:  The Allies take this unoccupied base adjacent to Tarakan.
 
Axis Counterattack:  I feel sure one is coming, but no sign of anything in the works yet.  If I was Miller, I would throw everything I had toward retaking Billiton and Ketapang and would be willing to sacrifice my carriers in the process.  Win and he sets the Allies back weeks or even months (if the Allies lose a carrier battle); and it's not impossible that he could win.  But if he doesn't counterattack...well, that's not thinkable. 
 
Allied Strategy:  The Allied carriers are almost back to Darwin to make good lost aircraft, do a few upgrades, and rest pilots.  The ships will refuel and within four days head back to Makassar.  From there they can sally forth toward Billiton/Ketapang, if needed, or cover upcoming Allied invasions of Banjermasin and Tarakan.
 
Balikpan:  The last of the American infantry divisions (7th) has nearly unloaded at Samarinda and will then move to adjacent Balikpan.  As soon as they arrive the Allies will commence the assaults.
 
SEAC:  Miller has some units at Hanoi, Haiphong, Luangprabang (northeastern Vietnam), Vinh, and suddenly at Tourane.  So he's cobbling together a defense to meet the advancing Allied and Chinese units.  The first two Chinese arrived at the road hex between Hanoi and the base to the north, so they've severed the line of travel between China and Vietnam.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

You probably can't be sure about shutting off the Oil, until you can get closer to Singapore, and/or get CVs roaming the South China Sea. I think it's possible still to pull out OIL/FUEL via ports further north, and Medan is definitely still open. Still, he has a real problem now. It's weird how close our games are developing, though the timeframes are different.

Is there anyone on Bangkha? How about a landing at Toboali, and overland march to the base at the top? That would put Singkep in easy reach, and pretty much shut down any Oil from the DEI.

Is he still lifting OIL from Brunei/Miri, or do you have that shut down? You will once Tanjerso-whatever, that base next to Tarakan, is big enough for SBDs.

Q-Ball, you're right, both of us have followed very similar vectors of attack in the DEI, though I don't think either of us has "copied" the other (except ascribing to the general idea that attacking into the DEI is a good idea and that Mindanao is even more important).

Early on, there was a difference as I was focusing upon mainly the eastern DEI as a route to hit Mindanao, while you were heading west toward Java. But you turned north to threaten Mindanao while I ultimately turned west, then finally south again as Mindanao looked to be too tough a target.

The fact that your are a year ahead of me is rather staggering to think about.

[Canoerebel]

Although tough fighting and setbacks will occur, the Allies have finally broken through and made significant advances in the DEI in the past thirty days.  This progress is the result of many, many factors, but it occurs to me that there is one asset that has earned MVP status - the escort carrier.

Both sides have been continuously engaged in high attrition, high loss battle in the DEI for well over a year.  Each side has suffered massive losses in aircraft and combat ships, and, to a lesser extent, fleet carriers.  But while the Japanese eventually had to retire to rest and upgrade and repair damage, the Allies were able to remain on station and undertake new and critically important invasions thanks to escort carriers.

The Allies have so many CVE that well-escorted amphibious operations are still possible in the face of stout enemy land-based air even after three CV and two CVL had to retire due to damage.  So while the KB has been present at the front for just one week out of the last four, Allied carriers have been at the front the entire month (and, except for brief returns to port to refuel) for many months now.

[Heeward]

You may have sapped his general pilot reserve of good pilots and he may have had to transfer less trained pilots from training groups. The delay caused by the pilot transfer could be what is keeping the KB inactive. Another possibility is that he does not have enough supply reserves where the KB is at limiting the amount of replacement aircraft he can draw.

[FatR]

Judging by total lack of garrizons on key bases like Biliton, the decisive point in this game was Allied breakthrough from Burma. The need to strongly reinforce Indochina, in futile attempts to salvage the situation, apparently tied down too many Japanese troops and left Miller unable to create yet another defensive line in DEI. Allies would have overan it eventually and cut off the oil flow anyway, but not without several more months of fighting.

[JeffroK]

Can you interdict his Oil shipments by aerial mining of Medan, Sabang & the Borneo ports??

[Canoerebel]

The Allies are issuing orders for the next two-day turn:
 
1)  By fast transport, the Allies will land infantry and special services detachments at Pamakasan (island just east of Soerabaja) and on the far southeastern tip of Java.  The Allies don't intend to engage in a big land campaign for Java, but I would like a few bases and I want to keep up the pressure.
2)  The carriers are in the process of replenishing and replacing at Darwin.  They've sucked the port dry, but two big TK TFs are unloading.  Some of the carrier TFs still only have 55% to 60% mission sortie levels, so they need two more days in port.
3)  Banjermasin prepped troops are loading aboard transports (this operation no longer appears "menacing" since the Allies have taken bases farther forward).
4)  Tarakan prepped troops begin loading next turn.
5)  B-29s hit Miri oil with some success this past turn.
6)  Both sides are sending troops to the coast of Vietnam.  Not sure yet who has the most or the best or the most supplied.
7)  Long, long-awaited invasion of Port Blair begins next turn.
8)  Damaged CV Intrepid made Darwin and departs for Perth tonight.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JeffK
Can you interdict his Oil shipments by aerial mining of Medan, Sabang & the Borneo ports??

Yes, the Allies can mine ports. I've just begun selective strategic bombing of oil and refineries. By selective I mean those bases I don't plan on taking in the near future and using myself. So I'll bomb and mine Miri, Brunei, Soerabaja, and the Sumatra ports including Palembang.

The main Allied effort, though, continues to pinch the Home Islands off from the DEI by taking bases on the Vietnam/China coasts and on the Borneo or Philippine coasts. We're very close to accomplishing this. I think within a few months big Allied carrier TFs will be roaming the South China Sea, which should choke off all Japanese tanker traffic. The Allies have already interdicted the coastal road through Vietnam (having taken Hue) though that contest may not have been decided yet.

[Canoerebel]

7/29/44 to 8/1/44
 
DEI:  Still no sign of action or reaction by the Japanese to the Allied caputure of Billiton, Sampit, and Ketapang.  No sign of the KB.  All of this is most mysterious (to me).  Allied carriers continue to "refresh" at Darwin - all are now at 100% sorties except CV Franklin TF, which is at 65%.  So my carriers get two more days in port and then they head west to cover the following operations:  (1) invasion of Banjermas [troops are already loaded and ready to go]; (2) invasion of Tarakan [troops will be loaded and ready to go in a few more days]; (3) reinforcement landings at Billiton and Ketapang [troops are loaded and ready to go]; and (4) possibly subsequent invasions of bases like Pontiatak if they remain lightly garrisoned and the KB remains abasent.  The first Balikpan attack should take place in two more days.  The Allies should take vacant Pamakasan (near Soerabaja) tomorrow.
 
Thailand/Vietnam:  The biggest Allied army in Thailand swept into Ubon and evicted the defenders.  This force will continue east to reinforce 5223 Provisional Tanks at Hue, which is about to become the scene of a Japanese coutnerattack.  I think Miller has reduced his Bangkok garrison - not enough to invite an attack, yet, but I'll keep tabs on the situation.  The Chinese army moving on Hanoi (2500 AV vs. two units of unknown strength, but it doesn't take much to defeat the Chinese) will cross the river in two to four days.
 
Port Blair:  The troops landed in good shape, but 40 or 50 fighters weren't sufficient to ward of 48 unescorted Frances, which put four and five TT in CVE Begum and CVL Unicorn.  Another example of porous Allied CAP and deadly enemy torpedo marksmanship at long range (something the Allies sorely lack - heck, they lack torpedo marksmanship at any range).  I don't think the Allies have enough troops ashore to take this base, but we'll try a probing attack to see.