Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

8/2/44 and 8/3/44
 
DEI:  A detachment of Australian infantry takes Pamaksan, a base on the island just east of Java.  APDs land a detachment of Special Services troops at the (vacant) base at the southeastern tip of Java, and it should fall tomorrow.  No sign of the KB, yet, but I get the feeling that Miller is organizing the "banzai charge" to try to reclaim Billiton and Ketapang.  The Allies carriers at Darwin are refreshed and ready to go - they will head first to Makassar to rendezvous with the reinforcement TFs bound for Billiton and Ketapang and the invasion force destined for Banjermasin.  The first Allied attack at Balikpan will take place tomorrow.  We'll try a deliberate attack first to gauge fort level.
 
Thailand/Vietnam:  Two IJA brigades wrested Hue from 5223 Provisional Tanks.  An Allied army of about 2200 AV is on the way, but it may take a week or ten days to reach Hue.  The Chinese Army crossed the river and hit Hanoi, which was just reinforced.  The Chinese outnumber the IJA 2500 AV to 600 AV, but the modified attack odds were 1:2 and the Chinese lost far more troops.  Nevertheless, the Allies want to apply pressure in as many places as possible.
 
Port Blair:  Japanese LBA finished off additional low-value transports, but the Allied attack came off much better than expected - three forts, 1:2 odds, but the Japanese suffered 4x losses.  Unless Miller reinforces quickly, this base should fall.
 
Vacation Ceasefire Nearing:  My family and I are embarking on our "last great family vacation" day after tomorrow.  We are planning a tour of many of the Rocky Mountain States - mainly Mesa Verde to Grand Canyon to Zion to Yellowstone to Mount Rushmore - over three weeks.  We call it the "last great family vacation" because our children are nearing college/working ages, which makes getting synchronized vacation schedules quite difficult or impossible.  We'll be tent camping most of the time, which probably means plenty of bad meals, stinky shirts, chaffing, and grumbling...and that's just the female side of the family!  [:D]  Anyhow, this will result in a lengthy ceasfire in the game that should end around June 13 or June 14.  However, I expect us to get in a bunch of turns tomorrow.

[erstad]

They've sucked the port dry, but two big TK TFs are unloading.

Note you can disband the TKs into the port and directly fuel from them.

[Xxzard]

I can say from experience that all of those sites are really neat, so have fun on your vacation!

[Galahad78]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Vacation Ceasefire Nearing:  My family and I are embarking on our "last great family vacation" day after tomorrow.  We are planning a tour of many of the Rocky Mountain States - mainly Mesa Verde to Grand Canyon to Zion to Yellowstone to Mount Rushmore - over three weeks.  We call it the "last great family vacation" because our children are nearing college/working ages, which makes getting synchronized vacation schedules quite difficult or impossible.  We'll be tent camping most of the time, which probably means plenty of bad meals, stinky shirts, chaffing, and grumbling...and that's just the female side of the family!  [:D]  Anyhow, this will result in a lengthy ceasfire in the game that should end around June 13 or June 14.  However, I expect us to get in a bunch of turns tomorrow.

Come on! What about laptops and satellite modems? [:D] Hope you have very nice holidays [:)]

[Canoerebel]

I don't own a laptop.  Heck, I don't even own a cell phone....nor a Blackberry, iPod, MP-3 Player, iPad, or the like.
 
Just sent the new turn off to Miller.  Summary of things seen and and to be seen:
 
KB:  No sign of her despite good coverage of the southern end of the South China Sea and all of the DEI.  If she's not here then she's either upgrading in the Home Islands or preparing to pounce somewhere unexpected (a raid into SoPac or CenPac?).  If I was Miller, though, I'd get her back to the DEI as soon as possible.
 
Allied Carriers:  All refreshed and departing Darwin tonight.  Will rendezvous with the Billiton, Ketapang, Banjermasin transports near Makassar.
 
Balikpan:  All troops are finally present.  The Allies have five U.S. infantry divisions plus another division equivalent.  2900 AV against 50k defenders.  First attack is tomorrow.
 
SEAC:  Lots of Japanese troops are showing around Hanoi/Haiphong, Vinh, and Hue.  I don't know where they are coming from, but if the activity in SEAC keeps Miller from reacting strongly down around Borneo/Java the...mission accomplished.  But, if Miller can throw together parallel counterattacks in both places I'll be scratching my head. Bangkok's IJA garrison has gone from 25 to 22 units over the past week; it would be great if Miller would abandon that base, but he probably knows that doing so would free up a big Allied army to go on the rampage.

[Canoerebel]

8/4/44 and 8/5/44
 
Balikpan:  The first Allied deliberate attack at Balikpan is sobering - six forts, 1:2 odds, and disproportionate losses for the Allies.  Reducing this base is going to be a bear; probably the best thing I can do is apply as much heat elsewhere as possible so that Miller doesn't feel like reinforcing.  Here's the combat results:
 
Ground combat at Balikpapan (64,97)
 
Allied Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 70808 troops, 1408 guns, 1282 vehicles, Assault Value = 2938
 
Defending force 37160 troops, 339 guns, 300 vehicles, Assault Value = 1256
 
Allied adjusted assault: 2612
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 3658
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 6)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      2072 casualties reported
         Squads: 58 destroyed, 44 disabled
         Non Combat: 66 destroyed, 151 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
      Guns lost 7 (7 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 102 (14 destroyed, 88 disabled) 
 
Allied ground losses:
      5142 casualties reported
         Squads: 72 destroyed, 329 disabled
         Non Combat: 73 destroyed, 417 disabled
         Engineers: 7 destroyed, 62 disabled
      Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 197 (15 destroyed, 182 disabled) 
 
Assaulting units:
    14th Chindit Brigade
    627th Tank Destroyer Battalion
    93rd Infantry Division
    77th Infantry Division
    31st Infantry Division
    16th Chindit Brigade
    9th Marine Regiment
    41st Infantry Division
    23rd Chindit Brigade
    6th British Brigade
    1st Filipino Inf Regiment
    4th British Brigade
    754th Tank Battalion
    7th Infantry Division
    I Australian Corps
    1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
 
Defending units:
    454th Ind.Infantry Battalion
    3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
    Guards Mixed Brigade
    23rd Division
    4th Division
    15th Garrison Unit
    96th JAAF AF Bn
    9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
    5th Air Div /400
    4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    2nd Air Div /400
    4th JAAF Base Force
    1st Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
    14th Army /404
 
Carriers:  No sign of the KB.  The Allied carriers steam west into the Banda Sea, reaching a point west of Lautem.  I think D-Day for Banjermasin will be abour four days away.  At the same time the troops are landing there, the carriers will nose forward to escort reinforcement convoys to Billiton and Ketapang.  I'd be very worried about that move, but Allied patrol-zone coverage into the South China Sea goes so far that the chances of an ambush are much reduced.
 
Java:  The Allies have taken the little base at the remote southeast corner of Java.  I wonder if Miller will sally forth to contest it?
 
SEAC:  The Japanese evicted the little Allied unit at Vinh.  The main Allied army is making slow progress on the road from Ubon to Hue.

[Canoerebel]

8/6/44 and 8/7/44
 
There are signs that the Japanese military is preparing for a counterstrike....
 
Japanese Warships and Aircraft:  Sub Croaker put two TT into BB Mutsu near Formosa (and was sunk for her trouble).  Mutsu had been out of action since taking heavy damage near Ceram nearly a year ago, so I bet losing her again is a blow to Miller's morale.  A CVE was sighted west of Manila.  Heavy concentration of aircraft was noted at Semereng (the Allies hit it hard and effectively) and Miller suddenly committed 100+ Tojo to defend Soerabaja's airfield after his fighters had been absent for a week.  All these things point to an approaching attack.
 
Allied Invasion Force:   The Allied carriers and transports took station just south of Banjermasin, and the CAP easily repulsed scattered Japanese LBA attacks.  The Banjermasin invasion force goes in tonight (I don't anticipate strong opposition since this base is now behind the front lines).  The carriers and the Ketapang/Billiton reinforcement transports will continue west, taking station perhaps four hexes east of those two bases.  From that vantage point I'll see what develops next turn in the way of the KB.  Sampit is already a level four airfield with three good fighter squadrons.  That and the heavy patrols into the South China Sea are very helpful.
 
Reaction:  If the Japanese appear en masse around the western end of the Java Sea, the Allies an shift quickly to an invasion of Tarakan - the troops are loaded aboard transports at Makassar.
 
Road Warrior:  I expect to play just one more turn (tomorrow morning) before leaving on our three-week family vacation.

[anarchyintheuk]

My withdrawal symptoms will start soon enough. Enjoy your vacation tho.

[Canoerebel]

8/8/44 and 8/9/44
 
This should be my last update until around June 13. 

Banjermasin: The landings go smoothly with 450 AV ashore facing about 150 AV of islolated Japanese.  I think that will be enough to take the base, though it may take awhile to whittle down strength.

KB:  No sign of it - most mysterious and now a bit worrisome.  I am concerned that Miller could somehow sneak the carriers in and that they, combined with massed LBA, would pose a risk to the Allied forces.

Allied Carriers:  Take station between Sampit and Billiton where they will cover reinforcement landings at Billiton commencing tomorrow.  I also have a TF carrying Ketapang reinforcements, but even as I type I'm debating detouring them to Pontiatak, which is lightly held.  But would I be steaming into the very face of an ambush?

Tarakan Invasion Force:  The invasion force is fully loaded and ready to steam north from Makassar should the KB show up over around Billiton.

SEAC:  Allied troops continue to move slowly east toward the coast.  Lots of Japanese troops around and I think many of them are coming from the troops around Bangkok and the the ones that retreated from Tavoy weeks ago.  So alot is going on and I'm not yet sure of the balance of power in Vietnam, but all activity that takes place here that diverted attention and forces from the DEI is a very good thing.

[Canoerebel]

8/10/44 and 8/11/44
 
Pontiatak:  I decided to gamble by diverting the Ketapang reinforcements to Pontiatak, a lightly-defended Jpaanese base one step closer to Kuching.  I feared that the KB might show up, but the turn was majestically quiet.  Two Marine regiments and an Aussie brigade landed in great shape to find part of an IJA battalion present.  This forward base should fall quite soon.
 
Banjermasin:  The first attack dropped forts from three to one and inflicted disproportionately heavy losses on the IJA garrison.  This base should fall next attack.
 
Billiton:  Reinforcements landed at this forward base close to Palembang.
 
KB:  No sign of it.
 
Allied Carriers:  Will probably fall back a bit in preparation to escort the Tarakan invasion ships that will weigh anchor from Makassar next turn.
 
Port Blair:  Miller is reinforcing, so I may have to reinforce this landing in order to take the base.
 
Playing AA Guys against the Major Leaguers?  I get the feeling that Miller has temporarily focused every attention on Vietnam, where it seemed that things were spinning out of control for the Japanese.  He probably had to do this, but what he didn't know was that this is the lesser of two threats.   While Allied progress was startling, the troop numbers are fairly small and the supply situation will remain very iffy until the Allies can link up to a great supply source (drawing supply through the jungle from Rangoon/Moulmein is a tough proposition).  So, while Miller has been focusing on Vietnam, the major leaguers have been advancing in the DEI.  The Allies have essentially cut-off Java now and are close to rendering Palembag and Singapore untenable - and that should occur within the month.  As soon as the Allies are strongly established at Pontiatak, Singkawang, and Kuching, the South China Sea is open and the Allies can begin planning the next big step - sending massive supply convoys and reinforcements across that sea to coastal China or Vietnam.

[JeffroK]

[:D]

I hope Miller has a fantastic operation planned, and has to wait until you return before it bears fruit.

However I cant see anything more than an "Ardennes" type futile attack, he cant afford to lose 1 for 1, thats a loss for him. make sure all of your rear bases are up searching and prepared for an end run. Maybe the moral win from an attack on Midway/Noumea/Colombo etc can be the best he could epect at this stage.

If you get emails from him for "just one more turn" it may be a sign he has something big planned.

Have a great holiday.

[Canoerebel]

Gents,
 
We have returned from our three-week expedition to the Rocky Mountain states.  We had a blast and enjoyed alot of cold weather.  Then we returned to the South and found that the humidity and heat are intolerable!  How do people live here?...wait; I've lived here all my life and don't plan on leaving...so I hope I'll re-acclimate myself to these conditions pronto.
 
Anyhow, it's about time to resume the game.  It will take me all day to review the map and try to remember what in the heck was going on.  Look for the game to resume in earnest tomorrow.
 
Sincerely,
 
Canoe "This time last week it was 37 degrees and raining; this week it's 92 and 75% humidity" Rebel

[JohnDillworth]

Welcome back. You were missed. Glad you had a good vacation. Some of the other AAR's kept us busy. Against the wind/Hunting the Habiki was great but came to a bad end for the empire. Outstanding reading though.

[Bullwinkle58]

Good to see you back.

FWIW, there's a beta for Patch 4 up on the site. It does a lot of things you might be interested in, especially lots of tweaks to CD and naval bombardment. You should probably see if your opponent has intalled it.

[Canoerebel]

Orders issued for: 8/12/44 and 8/13/44
 
Reaquainting myself with the game after three weeks has been difficult - a long layoff causes alot of game info to "disappear" from memory and also blunts a player's "feel" for what's going on and what the enemy is up to.  (That's a good reason not to switch commanders during the middle of an operation.)  Anyhow, I've issued my orders for the next turn and we'll see what happens:

Borneo:  The Allies will continue operations on this island.  I expect Pontianak and Banjermasin to fall tomorrow; a probing attack at Balikpan will probably receive a bloody repulse; and the Tarakan invasion troops are loaded aboard transports at Makassar.  This force will sail as soon as the Allied carriers, currently south of Borneo, return from covering the operations there (a few days).

DEI:  The Allies need some time to build up infrastructure at the new forward bases (Billiton Island, Pontianak, and Ketapang), but once that is done they should be able to shut down traffic in and out of Palembang.  With Soerabaja already isolated, that leaves the Brunei/Miri facility and Sumatra as the only "safe" sources of oil for the Japanese.  I think the Allies will now empoy the B-29s at Kendari against Brunei/Miri - both strategic bombing and aerial mining.

Allied Carriers:  The main Allied carrier force is just south of Borneo covering the landings in that area.  Intrepid reached Perth and will remain for a few weeks to repair SYS damage.  Constellation (33 days repair time) and Saratoga (98 days repair time) are at Capetown.  Ticonderoga and Randolph will arrive on the West Coast within weeks.

KB:  Don't know where it is right now.  I *think* Miller may be upgrading, but I have to assume he can spring an attack anywhere at any time.

Indochina:  The Allies are moving in strength against Hue.  The moves on Vinh and Hanoi have bogged down.

Long Term Strategy:  The main Allied strategy remains to take control of a sector on the South China Sea (Singakwang/Kuching are now the targets).  Then, rather than moving on the Philippines or North Borneo as Miller probably expects, the Allies will carry a mammoth army to coastal Vietnam or China to begin the drive for air bases in proximity to the Home Islands.  That is the main "end game" plan.

Points:  The Japanese lead is 7,400 points.

[wpurdom]

I noticed that you invited Q-ball to a duel. What will be your approach to micro-management of pilots?
 
He's a pretty demanding opponent to take on if he is building up his pilot training and you are not.

[Canoerebel]

Q-Ball is at a decided disadvantage because he is a Yankee with pasty white arms and legs.  He will not stand a chance against a naturally-tanned, supple, winsome Southerner.
 
We are actually discussing starting a game, though we haven't begun working on details yet.  But I would love to face him in a game - not only because I've enjoyed following his AARs, but also because he graciously provided counsel to me at a time of great need during my game with John III.
 
I don't think I'll handle pilot training any differently.  No matter how hard I try, I just can't gin up any desire to engage in pilot-training micromanagement.  That and my propensity for playing without watching the combat replays will get me in trouble, but it probably helps level the playing field a bit since the Allies have such a natural advantage in the game.

[Canoerebel]

8/12/44 and 8/13/44
 
Naval Action:  An IJN CL/DD force roughed up some Allied transport TFs around Billiton Island.
 
Borneo:  The Allies engaged in three attacks:  (1) Banjermasin fell; (2) IJA forts at Pontiatak dropped from five to zero, so this base will fall tomorrow; (3) deliberate attack at Balikpan comes off at 1:2 (but not that far from 1:1), doesn't touch the forts, and results in 2x Allied casualties, but the Allies seem to be making some progress.
 
Allied Carriers:  A mixed bag of Frances torpedo aircraft escorted by Zeroes tried to penetrate the massive Allied carrier CAP without success.  The attacks were scattered and weak and I have no doubt Miller is grumbling about the continued futility of trying to get large, well-escorted strikes to target Allied carrier TFs.  The only way to accomplish that is to commit the KB and fight at close range.

[Chickenboy]

Welcome back, Canoerebel. Glad you made it back safely. Looking forward to the rest of your war.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Chickenboy.
 
By the way, we ended up traveling through Minnesota on our way home.  We made a stop at Pipestone National Monument, which we really enjoyed.  The next morning (last Wednesday) it was 58 degrees, stiff breeze, and raining.  That aint natural for a Southerner in June!