1943 Bob vs. Don AAR

[Zovs]

Bob, pretty much ansered the questions on retreat. It's not like an exact board game where you have to specifically trace the hex by hex retreat path, if you completely cut off your suffer more surrenders and catastrophic losses, but if there is 'space' available the unit may retreat several hexes away and be in varying status of disruption. These states are listed in the manual but if Bob or Joel want's to talk about them they can since I am under strict orders from 'the boss' (lol). Basically, when I counter attacked Bob's units one of the stacks went directly into one of the pockets (maybe it failed its morale or leader check, I don't know, but it's nice because its unpredictable and to me historical), at the same instance another stack I attacked held in place for 3 attacks and did not retreat and yet again another stack retreated in more logical manner (you typically see this with the Germans and late war Soviets, but it's there for both to also fail this and do the retreat into a pocket or someplace you don't want them to go). Finally, sometimes if you disrupt the unit enough to cause a rout it may end up way in the rear in refit mode. For example one of my Tank Corps I lead with Bob hit with the SS corps and it flung the unit back 7 or 8 hexes routed and unavailable for several turns (one to get out of it's current failed state and two to recoup the losses).

Hopefully, you can pick up that this game is very dynamic and there is so much going on under the hood. For me I get the 'feeling' that most parts are working and from way earlier tests (last Dec/Jan) I saw a bit under the hood. Since for me I know the model is basically working just fine for both sides (morale, fatigue, disruption, supplies, logistics, doctrine, training, experience, ect, ect, etc.) I don't worry about the details and can concentrate on Operational Combat, which is what this game is all about anyway.

Cautiously looks over shoulder to see if 'the boss' is listening and wonders if the next thing I hear (or the last) is the click and feel of the cold steel as it penetrates my neck...)

My guess is that the reason you are so relaxed about it is that you know the Luftwaffe cannot keep up this rate of attrition, and cannot replace their own losses, which will surely come.

Right, currently at turn 4, even with 4k losses (or was it 5k) I still had 9k left with about 10 air groups still to assign and more building up while the Germans only have about 2k of planes so I know I can attrition him down.

I'm going to assume this thread has a more laissez faire policy on actual discussion and, hopefully, fewer wives

I can only afford one wife and have kept her around for 16 years (or her me, No?). But yes both Bob and I want your interaction, but please note we are still in alpha, no one is perfect, no one knows everything (well maybe Gary...and Joel too, jeez Bob has know Joel for years...they are toying with me, paranoia sinks in again comrades...) and well back to my hole...

[karonagames]

Do we need house rules?

[Zovs]

Bob I think were good part of our 'house' rules (if I am understanding the question) is Fog of War on, Support points locked, and preferences set to Normal. Or perhaps a house rule of make the Germans attack on turn one or something, but we are good to go.

Thinking Berlin should be warm by Dec 1944...[8D]

[Flaviusx]

I'd prefer to see the Germans having a choice of not attacking, especially since attacking here seems like not a very good idea.
 
There's been some concern expressed elsewhere that the game's offensive tempo is too fast, the logistics too forgiving, and this gives us a good chance to test the ability of a defender to check an attacker by attrition and exhaustion.
 
Regarding admin points: can these be saved? If so, is there any cap on that? I'm guessing you can economize on their use during the poor weather turns and then spend them like a drunken sailor during the summer.

[karonagames]

Unused APs are carried over. The current cap is 500 (subject to testing etc. etc.)

During Bad weather I will be building Fortified zones in rear areas. I don't think I will ever have as many APs as I want/need.

[karonagames]

Just to let everyone know that we are looking at the high soviet air losses that occurred in the first game to see if they are bug related. I have found something that needs to be looked at and may require a fix before we can get going with a new game.

[ComradeP]

Right, currently at turn 4, even with 4k losses (or was it 5k) I still had 9k left with about 10 air groups still to assign and more building up while the Germans only have about 2k of planes so I know I can attrition him down.

If you have about 5 times as many planes as your opponent, it would seem highly unlikely you can survive a 10-1 up to 13-1 loss rate. In order for your attrition to lower, it would seem to be logical that you need to kill his fighters, yet only about 1/3 of his losses were fighter aircraft so attriting them to the point of breakdown with losses like yours seems highly unlikely.

[karonagames]

We do have a bug related to Soviet aircraft losses that both Don and I have replicated,so we have to wait until a fix is forthcoming.

Meanwhile.....

[karonagames]

Prologue:

Date. 4th June 1943

Location: OKH Headquarters - somewhere in East Prussia

Field Marshal Rommel knocked at the door of the office of the leader of the Third Reich.

“Welcome, welcome, Field Marshal Rommel. As you are no doubt aware, General Jodl has suffered a massive heart attack and has been forced to retire from active duty. I hereby appoint you to replace him as Chief of Staff of OKH. Congratulations”

The Leader offered his hand, which Rommel took, noticing a slight shake, and a much weaker grip than the previous occasion on which they had shaken hands.

“Now let us turn our attention to Operation Citadel; we have been forced to delay the launch of the offensive due to the teething problems we have had with the new Panther tanks. Your first duty is to ensure that no further delays occur, and to ensure that the plans of your predecessor designed to achieve our strategic objectives are carried out by the armies assigned to the offensive.”

“My leader, can I speak bluntly?”, asked Rommel.

“You may”

“Is it really necessary to attack Kursk, and indeed in the east this year at all? Do you think anyone even knows where Kursk is? The entire world doesn't care if we capture Kursk or not. What is the reason that is forcing us to attack this year on Kursk, or even more, on the Eastern Front?"

Surprisingly, the Leader replied:

"I know. The thought of it turns my stomach.”

“ Allow me to produce a new strategic assessment of the Eastern Front and produce a new strategic plan that reflects the consequences of the delay to the launch of Citadel”

“ You have 3 weeks, in the meantime we continue with the existing plan”

“Yes, my Leader.”

[Ron]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

There's been some concern expressed elsewhere that the game's offensive tempo is too fast, the logistics too forgiving, and this gives us a good chance to test the ability of a defender to check an attacker by attrition and exhaustion.

I agree wholeheartedly, from reading the other AAR and now this, something seems off. In one week in '43 the Orel salient is cutoff? I will have to check but wasn't it bitterly contested until the end of July and then the Germans decided it was untenable and retreated?

While the strategic initiative shifted to the Russians after Kursk, they still suffered a very high loss ratio in '43 when attacking which isn't evidenced here.(apart from the aircraft losses!)

[karonagames]

Because I did not attack on turn 1, Don was able to redeploy sufficient forces from his reserves and the south where I wasn't attacking to enable him the achieve the breakthrough that he achieved. I also failed to put sufficient troops into reserve that would have spoiled some of his attacks that would have caused him higher losses. In the tests I have been doing while we wait for the fix, I am trying to perfect my defensive technique, and I am inflicting higher losses.

Up until now I have been playing the 1941 Campaign as the Axis, and the only defensive work I have had to do is learn how to survive the 1941 Winter Offensive, which I can do fairly well on normal, but am struggling with on Challenging which is good. We need to test PBEM, and Don and I are pretty much the only testers available. Which means that there is a mis-match in experience levels as Don has run the 43 campaign about 20 times, and I have played 14 turns against the AI.

I hope I am not a total walkover and that we produce an interesting AAR. If you all find it boring will move it back to the private development forum.

The Air losses were partially because of a bug.

Pyledriver's AAR is against the AI,and the results should be viewed in that light.

I agree that the 1943 campaign will be a good test to see if the current attrition and logistic model is correctly balanced for the defender and attacker. We still have much alpha testing and beta testing to do. In the 3 months I have been testing, I have seen huge changes in how certain areas are modelled. I was surprised how good the game was when I started, and we are all working to make it the best it can be before it is released.

[Zovs]

I don't believe that 'something seems off'.

On the morning of the 17th of July the Southwest and South Fronts opened the offensive on AGS right flank (Hitler canceled Citadel on the 13th). The Soviets quickly achieved large breakthroughs in which they fought stubbornly to expand. The Germans correctly assessed that the offensive was to recapture the Donets basin and not merely to draw off reserves from Citadel, as they first thought. During the next two weeks the Soviets did not make a decisive penetration and the battle seesawed violently and dangerously and by the end of the month the offensive  lost its momentum.

The above is somewhat paraphrased from Stalingrad to Berlin by Ziemke but lets look at this in the small game turns that Bob and I played.

On turn 1 neither side attacked (nor was forced to), during the second week 7/11/1943, again the Germans did nothing other then man their lines the best they thought based on the AI not being able to make any breakthroughs for a few weeks. During my turn 2 I saw the possible holes in the line and the best way to exploit those holes if I could breakthrough and entrapped those exposed panzer and panzer grenadier units. I took a few risks and even committed my reserve tank and mech units way earlier then I normally do but the potential mistakes that Bob made and the actual holes I was able to create allowed me this opportunity to make an encirclement, but the risk I knew that existed is exactly what Bob did (I also had a plan for that as well, lol). During week three (7/18/1943) Bob did in fact break up some of my attacks but he could not completely free his three pocketed forces. From here is was simply a closing of the pockets and leaving those units to die by the hands of the infantry during week four (7/25/1943).

Slightly a bit early but if the historical Germans had done this I am fairly certain that the Soviets may well have exploited this.

So the real question is how did I see the potential holes in Bob's line?

I don't know how to explain that other then from playing board war games for over 30+ years and reading Rommel, Guderian, Manstein, Hart, Patton, Montgomery, Zhukov, Chuikov, Voronov, Rokossovskiy, and Konev.

I don't know if this makes any sense or not.

[kfmiller41]

Don't think of moving this to the private forum[X(], this will always be interesting to those of us that enjoy this type of game. Interest in this has got me reading Glantz's books on the eastern front, that should speak volumes about the expectations for this game, at least for me[:D]

A question though, did the german player thin his front line troops out (in expectation of an offensive) and can you form new corps to use in a second line or as reserves? I assume he did this but it is hard to tell from the screen shots.

[Ron]

dlazov66,

I have read most of those books at one time or another also, and I have been wargaming since the late sixties. <shrug> If anything that is a handicap if you know what I mean.

Anyways I overlooked the turn of inactivity/redeployment, though I was talking about the Orel salient north of the Kursk bulge not the south. Regardless it still does feel off - the tempo, logistics, capabilities - dunno. I am curious how the 43 campaign develops between you too and am glad to be able to view and comment.

[ComradeP]

Ron: keep in mind that in the historical case, although Zitadelle was a failure, it did burn through both the operational readiness and the reserves of most Soviet troops south of Orel, as well as consuming a significant part of the Soviet armour reserves which were in need of rest.

The armoured forces used in the attack as you saw earlier in the AAR would most have been a shadow of their former self after the historical Zitadelle and needed some serious R&R.

[karonagames]

Please forgive me, but I don't Have the ability or the time to mess about with cropping images and doing pretty overlays. All you will see from me are screen dumps which are quick and easy to post.

I feel Sorry for for General Jodl he had some abilities...

[karonagames]

But at a cost of just 8 APs I can appoint Field Marshal Rommel.

[Flaviusx]

Ron, to be clear, I don't think the Orel salient brainfart is proof positive of a logistical issue, that was more of an overall strategic booboo. But the issue has been raised and ought to be tested properly and we've got a good chance to do so here with the Germans contesting the Soviet advance. Which is why I'm glad to see a do over, I think the game was given away in the opening move and would've spoiled this AAR from a testing standpoint.
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[karonagames]

Yes I know it would be much better if I could put the images side by side.

Before Don and I go any further, it is important that you all know that we are under a NDA and there are things that we can and cannot discuss. We may have to push this to the limit, and Joel may shut us down if we say something we shouldn't.

Please do not waste time asking what all the numbers mean and how they are used in the game: if you look in the Q&A I think you will find that Jaw has answered some questions regarding this subject. I will explain why I have posted these shots later. I do not know what they all mean, I have some insight into what some of them may mean, and I will give you my interpretation of what they may mean. Only Gary and Joel know the specifics of how they are used to produce the results.

Please do not get into a debate about whether Rommel could of/should of been made Chief of Staff of OKH - it is mine and Don's alternate history so we decide who we want to put where.

The number I want you to focus on is the initiative number. All we testers know is that our units get movement points based on the initiative rating of the leader who commands them; if the direct leader fails his test then the next leader in the chain gets a (lower)chance to pass the test, all the way up to OKH.

So by having the leader with the best initiative in OKH it means that over the millions and millions of initiative checks that will take place over the next 101 turns (assuming Rommel can keep his job), on average my units will get more movement points than if Jodl stayed in charge. These movement points will make the difference between units escaping encirclement or not and being able to make that extra counter attack that will free other units from encirclement or not.

Movement point allocation is also subject to modifiers from fatigue, readiness, supply and several other things we don't know about. The best a German infantry Division will get is 16mp, the worst 8, and the average is about 12. Motorised units vary enormously and are much more sensitive to readiness, fatigue and obviously supply availability. On turn one of Barbarossa they have 50 mps, you then spend the rest of the game trying to get to 40 and above. if you can do it regularly enough you can be in Moscow in 13 weeks. Unfortunately I can't do it often enough.

[Flaviusx]

By all means, optimize your leaders, people are going to be doing that anyhow once the game comes out. (To the extent their admin points allow them anyways.)
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I'm more interested in the big picture stuff, myself, not this kind of minutiae. Does the game work? Will it produce reasonable results?