SBD-3 production is wrong

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bklooste
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by bklooste »

I understand that manipulating the Japanese Economy and making better decisions on how to allocate the scarce resources available is part of the challenge/allure to the game for JFB's. From what I have read, there doesn't seem to be much scarcity to the resources. I have no problem with the Japanese player making alternative choices but they should be hard choices. It just doesn't seem that way from what I hear.


Turning Shinano off is a "hard" choice and provides 720 HI per day for most of the game which is enough for quite a few more planes per month (100-200) + accelerate a CV ... Honestly you cant complain about Tojos if you play with PDU on ( note Japan doesnt get the Tojo chutai they had in dec 41 in Vietnam) the resources is the same as Nates and instead of a Nate most Japan builds Tojos..

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Feinder
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Feinder »

Is there a way to play a campaign game (Dec 7, 41 to end), without Japanese production? Just a scenario that has historic japanese production numbers of aircraft etc, and not to muck with producting a bunch of Tojos or whatever?

Where Japan is constrained as the Allies. Number of produced aircraft, static arrival dates for ships. What's good for the goose, is good for the gander.

Yes, it removes the relevance of strategic bombing. But if the claims are true that Japan can over-produce, then that ~also~ removes the relevance of strat bombing, since you can bank what you need before there's any pain caused by a strat bombing offensive.

I'd love a no production scenario.

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tblersch
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by tblersch »

ORIGINAL: vettim89

As I have discovered when doing F4F-4 research, this is a universal truth. Rule number one when looking at AE Allied airframe production numbers: TimTom is never wrong. Rule number two when looking at AE Allied airframe production numbers: is you think the production numbers are wrong, refer to rule #1

I mean that quite seriously. I thought the F4F-4 numbers were all wrong but after my research and some valuable information from some others, we pretty much agreed they were right. My guess is no matter which airframe you pick, you are going to find that the AE numbers are about dead on.

Same here. I'm facing deep SBD shortages in 1942 as well, enough that I said to myself "That production rate can't be right." So I did some digging...and guess what? After making allowances for game mechanics (e.g. simplification of production runs to a constant monthly amount) and actual availability of airframes for battles (because - surprise, surprise - squadrons were never up to full strength in 1942, and were often seriously under-strength), the US production in the game is about as close to realistic as anyone's likely to get.
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: Sredni

I find it amusing that in what is supposed to be a historic simulation the IJ is swimming in airframes while the allies end up with carriers sitting in dock for years due to airframe shortages. The IJ has more high xp pilots then they can shake a stick at and a training program to keep their pilots elite all the way to wars end, while the allies struggle to field pilots with any experience at all, and have issues trying to keep up with training.
This is not the case when the Allied player is competent. In particular, Allies not having enough planes and Japanese being able to keep their initial pilot quality cannot both be true, without gross and atrocious mismanagement on the Allied part.



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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: Bradley7735

What a lot of WITP AE players need to start understanding (Mike Scholl already does) is that "PDU on" and "IJN Production on" are about equal, individually, to having non-historic Allied torpedo dud rates.
No. Your argument IJN Production ON is arguable (because this setting alone cannot be evaluated separately from the rest of the game), your argument about PDU ON is a load of it. Unless the Allied player, like, totally sucks at the game, PDU ON is great to have as Allies. Maybe not quite as great as it is for Japan, but the difference is not big enough to justify major handicaps for the latter. Logistics and planning is way harder with PDU OFF. Creating a mix of the available fighter types on the frontline, which is the key for successful Allied air defense, becomes way harder. Creating single-type bombers armadas, which is the key for successful Allied air offense (you don't want your 4Es to arrive piecemeal) becomes way harder. Shifting aircraft between theaters becomes way harder (nigh-impossible in some cases, such as early DEI/CBI defense). Battle-hardened squadrons might be stuck with obsolete planes. And so on. I won't ever play with PDU OFF as Allies, micromanagement already takes enough time.



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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: Feinder

Is there a way to play a campaign game (Dec 7, 41 to end), without Japanese production? Just a scenario that has historic japanese production numbers of aircraft etc, and not to muck with producting a bunch of Tojos or whatever?
Be aware, that with the game engine as it is now, such a scenario will likely end with Allies storming Tokyo in the late 1943/early 1944. For an example of what happens when Japanese do not radically rearrange and expand the plane production see the current Cuttlefish/Q-Ball pair of AARs, where Allies move up Philippines with overwhelming force in late summer of 1943, Burma is practically overrun, DEI is isolated, and IJN had lost nearly all of its carriers.




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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Local Yokel »

ORIGINAL: treespider

If you refer to a few posts above you will see what you need to do to "correct" the Japanese economy...good luck finding a PBeM opponent. I researched the economy for Japan...and the resources requirements to be transported to the HI are still shy by around 3-5 million points per year...if you want to know the tonnage of rice imported from Indo-China just ask...that being said the resource transportation requirements are about 7 times higher now when compared to WitP....so if you want to increase those requirements have it...however due to the nature of the economic model the entire system may just collapse if you go to far.


As one who has played the Japanese side a good deal more than the Allied, this has come as something of an eye-opener for me.

I had thought that AE provided a tolerably accurate model of the oil/resource shipping operations needed to sustain the Japanese economy, but it seems that the actual requirements are an order of magnitude greater. Worse, there is a broad hint being dropped here that the game may be incapable of providing an acceptably accurate model of the Japanese economy under war conditions. Apparently one major flaw is the game's failure to reflect Japan's food import requirements.

So, one suggested solution is to turn off the production model and to apply build rates instead in order to replicate Japanese production accurately. But does that not mean that all those tramp steamers plying between Dalian and Moji and across the Tsugaru Strait with resources become instantly redundant? In which case, the Japanese player will doubtless hide them in some out-of-the-way port and all those Allied submarines will have nothing to shoot at but the IJN and the supply/troop transports. Won't the only job for the Japanese tankers be the transport of fuel to Truk, etc, whilst Palembang will cease to have any importance? It appears to me that abandonment of the production model leads to even worse distortions of the economy's impact upon strategy than its retention.

Treespider may or may not be right about the difficulty of finding a PBEM opponent if the game's representation of the Japanese economy is made to reflect real life. I suspect some JFB's are sufficiently masochistic as to want to see how well they could manage an accurate economic model. But if AE is not providing such a model, apparently to ensure some people will be willing to take the Japanese side, then let's have that out in the open and stop deluding ourselves that at the grand strategic level AE has any pretensions to accuracy. If the Japanese have as big an economic advantage as is being suggested, then the presence or absence of another two dozen SBD's is a matter of the utmost insignificance.
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Andrew Brown »

What would be instructive in such as discussion is some information from games that have run full length (or nearly), and comparing the total numbers of Japanese aircraft produced versus what they produced in real life. I've never had the time to complete a game to anything like that far, so I can't comment myself...

Andrew

PS: One of the difficulties in recreating Japanese aircraft production is that it was nothing like constant - it increased by a huge amount in the later part of the war.
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Andrew Brown »

I had thought that AE provided a tolerably accurate model of the oil/resource shipping operations needed to sustain the Japanese economy, but it seems that the actual requirements are an order of magnitude greater.

No, they are not an order of magnitude greater. The requirements in game are well within the "ballpark" of what was required in the actual war, but yes - they are smaller. There are reasons for this, however. For example, not every single large and small ship that Japan used is represented in the game.

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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: Local Yokel

ORIGINAL: treespider

If you refer to a few posts above you will see what you need to do to "correct" the Japanese economy...good luck finding a PBeM opponent. I researched the economy for Japan...and the resources requirements to be transported to the HI are still shy by around 3-5 million points per year...if you want to know the tonnage of rice imported from Indo-China just ask...that being said the resource transportation requirements are about 7 times higher now when compared to WitP....so if you want to increase those requirements have it...however due to the nature of the economic model the entire system may just collapse if you go to far.


As one who has played the Japanese side a good deal more than the Allied, this has come as something of an eye-opener for me.

I had thought that AE provided a tolerably accurate model of the oil/resource shipping operations needed to sustain the Japanese economy, but it seems that the actual requirements are an order of magnitude greater. Worse, there is a broad hint being dropped here that the game may be incapable of providing an acceptably accurate model of the Japanese economy under war conditions. Apparently one major flaw is the game's failure to reflect Japan's food import requirements.

So, one suggested solution is to turn off the production model and to apply build rates instead in order to replicate Japanese production accurately. But does that not mean that all those tramp steamers plying between Dalian and Moji and across the Tsugaru Strait with resources become instantly redundant? In which case, the Japanese player will doubtless hide them in some out-of-the-way port and all those Allied submarines will have nothing to shoot at but the IJN and the supply/troop transports. Won't the only job for the Japanese tankers be the transport of fuel to Truk, etc, whilst Palembang will cease to have any importance? It appears to me that abandonment of the production model leads to even worse distortions of the economy's impact upon strategy than its retention.

Treespider may or may not be right about the difficulty of finding a PBEM opponent if the game's representation of the Japanese economy is made to reflect real life. I suspect some JFB's are sufficiently masochistic as to want to see how well they could manage an accurate economic model. But if AE is not providing such a model, apparently to ensure some people will be willing to take the Japanese side, then let's have that out in the open and stop deluding ourselves that at the grand strategic level AE has any pretensions to accuracy. If the Japanese have as big an economic advantage as is being suggested, then the presence or absence of another two dozen SBD's is a matter of the utmost insignificance.

I've done professional and academic work in this area. We cannot as yet model a modern industrial economy in the detail needed. It's beyond the state of the art and is likely to remain that way for at least a generation. If you've ever wondered why Soviet mathematicians were expert on inverting large (1,000,000+ rows) sparse (mostly zero) matrices, it was because the problem of simulating an economy in the necessary detail to allow central planning involved solving that problem. It was and still remains intractable.
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown

What would be instructive in such as discussion is some information from games that have run full length (or nearly), and comparing the total numbers of Japanese aircraft produced versus what they produced in real life. I've never had the time to complete a game to anything like that far, so I can't comment myself...

Andrew

PS: One of the difficulties in recreating Japanese aircraft production is that it was nothing like constant - it increased by a huge amount in the later part of the war.


I guess what most people are missing (and that has been true in WITP already) is the fact that the average PBEM won´t see the Japanese in the game producing more aircraft than in real life. Talking about the total numbers, the "problem" (kind of for the usual discussion) is the fact that the total numbers of real life saw also big numbers never reaching the front line (trainers etc) and of course not only the most advanced aircraft. In the game, you usually see 400-700 of the best fighters (Army and Navy) as production capability (factories most often turned off and on) and 200-400 bombers of the best versions.

Total numbers produced in the course of the war aren´t that much off from real life in both WITP and AE, with AE probably made another step forward. IMO it still should be more difficult for the Japanese to produce the most advanced aircraft, perhaps doubling or trippling the supplies used for expanding or making different aircrafts costing different amounts of HI, as a Frank in late 44 probably has cost a couple of times more than a Nate in 37. While I guess only the first thing is doable.
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Miller »

Just to throw in my 2p worth......

According to the figures on the combind fleet website the Japs produced 53,434 a/c between 1942 and the end of 1944. I am currently at August 44 in my game, and despite it being the scn 2 variant which gives me a few production advantages, I doubt my total production will exceed the real life total.

I am producing roughly 1200 a/c a month, of which 80% are single engined. Want to produce 400 Tojos a month? No problem.......but forget about building any Army bombers (which is no hardship as they are useless at this stage of the game).
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Swenslim »

There is one more problem wich doesnt reflect fact, that if japan player protects his convoys well, ships enough fuel and resources to HI, allied player can not bomb HI industry, then for example Frank must have service rating 1 or 2 not the 3, Tony must have 2 not 3, Fransis must have 2 rate not 4 etc.
 
And now lets look on numbers in my pbem game is january 4 1943, im am producing total 775 planes per month, in february will open 38 Tony plant, 61 Judy plant and in april 42 Jill plant. I will close Kate, Val plants - 32 and 44 a/c per month. So i will be producing around 850 a/c per months or 10 200 a/c per year.
 
In real history Japan produced  16 700 (including training planes) in 1943, 28 200 in 1944 and few thousand in 1945.
 
What is much more important, Japan trains 615 army pilots and 450 navy pilots per month.
 
I dont see where is over-production in the game.
 
 
 
 
 
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Swenslim

What is much more important, Japan trains 615 army pilots and 450 navy pilots per month.
I dont see where is over-production in the game.


there for example? [:D]
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by herwin »

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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Bradley7735 »

ORIGINAL: FatR

ORIGINAL: Bradley7735

What a lot of WITP AE players need to start understanding (Mike Scholl already does) is that "PDU on" and "IJN Production on" are about equal, individually, to having non-historic Allied torpedo dud rates.
No. Your argument IJN Production ON is arguable (because this setting alone cannot be evaluated separately from the rest of the game), your argument about PDU ON is a load of it. Unless the Allied player, like, totally sucks at the game, PDU ON is great to have as Allies. Maybe not quite as great as it is for Japan, but the difference is not big enough to justify major handicaps for the latter. Logistics and planning is way harder with PDU OFF. Creating a mix of the available fighter types on the frontline, which is the key for successful Allied air defense, becomes way harder. Creating single-type bombers armadas, which is the key for successful Allied air offense (you don't want your 4Es to arrive piecemeal) becomes way harder. Shifting aircraft between theaters becomes way harder (nigh-impossible in some cases, such as early DEI/CBI defense). Battle-hardened squadrons might be stuck with obsolete planes. And so on. I won't ever play with PDU OFF as Allies, micromanagement already takes enough time.

If you think PDU ON is equally beneficial to both sides, then you're smoking something. Is it nice for the Allied player? sure. But, it's about a factor of 10 less in importance when you can't change the types of planes you're producing. And, Japan has 2 "countries" or nationalities to constrain him. Allies have at least 12 "countries", several of them don't even produce planes to have a choice in upgrades (Marines and India come to mind.)

Want to have a decent Dutch fighter in 42? tough. Either you can't change Dutch fighter production, or there aren't any Dutch fighters to change to. It would be nice to stop production of the Buffalo (all national variants) and produce the P-40. And, it would be nice to upgrade that Dutch unit to a US produced plane. Japan can do any of that, except they can't mix between Navy and Army.
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by Bradley7735 »

ORIGINAL: FatR
ORIGINAL: Sredni

I find it amusing that in what is supposed to be a historic simulation the IJ is swimming in airframes while the allies end up with carriers sitting in dock for years due to airframe shortages. The IJ has more high xp pilots then they can shake a stick at and a training program to keep their pilots elite all the way to wars end, while the allies struggle to field pilots with any experience at all, and have issues trying to keep up with training.
This is not the case when the Allied player is competent. In particular, Allies not having enough planes and Japanese being able to keep their initial pilot quality cannot both be true, without gross and atrocious mismanagement on the Allied part.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with the content of Sredni's post. But, your logic is flawed. Low airframes will help increase the average experience of the other player. Likewise, high average experience will help reduce the total number of airframes of the other player.

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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: castor troy
there for example? [:D]
The total number of IJNAF pilots that entered various training programs in 1937-45 was over 240 thousands. Yes, most of these are late-war pilots who haven't completed their training or were trained inadequately, but so are trash pilots the in-game training program gives you (even in early 1942).
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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by bradfordkay »

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown
I had thought that AE provided a tolerably accurate model of the oil/resource shipping operations needed to sustain the Japanese economy, but it seems that the actual requirements are an order of magnitude greater.

No, they are not an order of magnitude greater. The requirements in game are well within the "ballpark" of what was required in the actual war, but yes - they are smaller. There are reasons for this, however. For example, not every single large and small ship that Japan used is represented in the game.

Andrew


What??!! You left out the woden hulled Japanese merchant ships???


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RE: SBD-3 production is wrong

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: FatR
ORIGINAL: castor troy
there for example? [:D]
The total number of IJNAF pilots that entered various training programs in 1937-45 was over 240 thousands. Yes, most of these are late-war pilots who haven't completed their training or were trained inadequately, but so are trash pilots the in-game training program gives you (even in early 1942).


yeah, what Japan in real life mostly put into their squadrons from mid 43 on would be probably something like skill 35 in the game, while in the game you put skill 70 into the squadrons, and a skill 70 pilot isn´t twice as good as a skill 35, he´s probably three or four times as good. Or do you want to tell me that you put the pilots from the replacement pool into your frontline units? I guess you train them two months and put them as skill 70 into the units...
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