Shattered Vow

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, Hainan!  (How in the heck is a Southerner supposed to learn all the dadgum bases and islands on this map!)

Dadgum? Is that near Dadjangus on Java? I'm so confused!

Dadjangus is on Mindanoa, by how!

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Bullwinkle.  I'll hunt and peck, but that philosophy makes sense to me.  He's got a powerful carrier force with some BBs still left, so he might as well employ them in grand fashion rather than have them picked off one by one or left to sail in the increasingly small waters controlled by the Japanese.

Well you should hunt, because he didn't necessarily say what you might think.[:)]

There is increasing player experience with kamis as more games get to that era. I'm in late June 1945 and they are still terrifying in their numbers and effectiveness. I can't go to the HI, even with ten modern CVs, and not lose some or at least lose them for the duration. Land-based fighter help is vital. Are they over-powered? Dunno. Against the AI yes and no. The AI has massive help with extra airframes all through the war to account for its other linitations. OTOH, I've peeked into its pilot pools, and while it still has several thousand, they're 20s and 30s.

A human player with several thousand airframes (and the multi-engine kamis will put all but the largest ships on the bottom) might consider pulling his CVs back and daring you to come and get them. Might.

Thanks again, Bullwinkle. I went hunting and found Miller's post (#33 in the 8/16/45 thread) most interesting. He expressed interest in the proposition that Japan could wait to spring a trap very late in the game rather than doing a "banzaii charge" earlier.

It's hard for me to envision where we'll be in August '45, but at this point I have no plans on approaching the Home Islands, Taiwan, or the PI. This is mainly because I want to concentrate on China and possibly Korea, but partly because I have been concerned about walking into a massive LBA/carrier air/kamikazee ambush.

I think I can undertake the invaison of coastal China because I just don't think Miller is expecting it and I don't think he'll have the base forces in place to permit a massive concentration of air. If he has outguessed me, though, I'll pay for it.

Until the invasion force is ready to go I'll concentrate on building up Allied bases at Kuching, Singkawang, Pontianak, Ketpang (all on the SW coast of Borneo) plus Billiton Island and a few other islands around Batavia and Palembang. My intent is to isolate Java and Palembang but also to create a zone of relative safety for my ships.

By the way: my focus on China is a direct result of Miller's actions in China back in early '42, especially the massing of artillery to obliterate the Chinese MLR. When that happened I vowed that the Allies would someday get revenge. I hope that day is not too far off.

[Canoerebel]

I just spent several hours on a turn, cleaning things up (and that was a dire need), checking things, and planning for the future.  Here's the general idea:
 
1)  Long term, the British/Indian/Chinese SEAC forces will concentrate on Vietnam.  At the moment there's a bit of a stalemate in this region, but that should change (1) if and when Bangkok falls and (2) when the "Pacific Allies" land on coastal China.
 
2)  In the short term, the "Pacific Allies" will consolidate their grip on the Kuching/Singkawang/Pontianak/Billiton Island area to turn this into a fortress of strong interlocking airfields and ports.  This will also serve to shut down Japanese commerce to and from Java and Palembang.
 
3)  In the short term, the Allies will retrieve the "China Gambit" troops that are currently all over the DEI.  The main staging points will be Makassar and Balikpan.
 
4)  Allied troops have begun prepping for the China Gambit.  The primary objectives will be Hainan Island and the coastal China cities from Swatow (near Hong Kong) through Amoy to Foochow.
 
5)  As reinforcements arrive from the USA, the Allies will consider further moves in the DEI, possibly to seize footholds on Java, Sumatra, or the Malay Peninsula.

[Canoerebel]

Another thing - Now that the Allies have taken essentially all of eastern and southern Borneo, where does Miller think the Allies are going next?  The natural conclusion is Borneo's western coast and/or the Philippines...or possibly a move against Java/Sumatra/Singapore.  To further his suspicions I've just shifted recon from targets like Singkawang and Kuching to point in the Philippines. 
 
I just cant' imagine any scenario in which Miller would identify China as the next target.  It will be fun planning, organizing, and implementing this move.

[Canoerebel]

8/23/44 and 8/24/44
 
Kamikaze:  Miller loaded up Semereng (north coast of Java) with kamikazees.  They sortied in moderate numbers and managed to sink four empty APA and an LST near Pontianak.  Nothing major, but a reminder that I need to work hard and fast to get my new South Borneo airfields up and running as quickly as possible.
 
Tarakan:  Unloading is nearly complete.  The Allies have about 1,050 AV ashore with avg. prep of about 55% facing less than 300 AV.  The Allies will try their first attack tomorrow.
 
KB:  No sign of it.
 
Allied Carriers:  The main fleet will head south from near Balikpan to a point west of Makassar; soon these ships will retire to Darwin to rest and reprovision.  CV Hancock depart Townsville for Darwin tonight.  CV Randolph is nearing Pago Pago.  CV Intrepid just departed Perth for the Capetown repair yards.  At Capetown, CV Constellation will be finished with repairs in three weeks and Saratoga in three months.  CV Indomitable just left Colombo making for Perth.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks again, Bullwinkle. I went hunting and found Miller's post (#33 in the 8/16/45 thread) most interesting. He expressed interest in the proposition that Japan could wait to spring a trap very late in the game rather than doing a "banzaii charge" earlier.

So now the question is, did he post it in the public forum as an elegant deception?

(Cue "Twilight Zone" music.)[:)]

[Canoerebel]

If I had to guess I'd place my money on Miller orchestrating a combined-arms, everything attack! plan as soon as he can.  In the first place he's a fighter; in the second place I think it's mentally tough for an IJ player to take it on the chin for years of game time without getting pretty demoralized.  At some point it becomse pretty enticing to give it your last best shot and then request an honorable end of the game so that you can start a new (and more fun) match. 

[desicat]

CR - At this point what would you consider a win in the game? Invading the HI in late 45? Taking the China seacoast? A strat bombing campaign that reduced the HI to rubble? At some point Miller will concede and I have a hard time believing the score will reflect how you view your performance.

[Canoerebel]

Good question.  Miller has played well and has put up a tough defense, so no matter what happens from this point forward he will justifiably feel good about his performance in the game.
 
I will be satisifed if the Allies take and develop a strong position in coastal China (and/or Korea and Taiwan) and use sustained, long-term strategic bombing to reduce Japanese industry to rubble.  I would also expect the Allies to pick up collateral, but still important, bases in the DEI and probably in the Pacific.  I'm not particularly interested in invading Japan, but will do so if they reach the point where there's nothing else to do that makes sense.

[Canoerebel]

8/25/44 and 8/26/44
 
Balikpan:  The Allies extinguished the Japanese army at Balikpan; 30,000 IJA soldiers went "poof."  I'm not sure why the stack didn't retreat into an adjacent hex occupied by the Japanese troops that previously withdrew from Samarinda.  The Allied stack here is now prepping for various bases on the China coast and Hainan Island.
 
Tarakan:  The first Allied attack came in at 1:5 and didn't touch the forts, but inflicted 2x casualties on the Japanese garrison.  I'm bringing in some reinforcements from Manado, but it looks like the Allies have enough to take this base within a reasonable time.
 
Miri:  B-24s from Manado, Ternate and other bases focused on Miri's oil and refinery.  Damage done was relatively modest (about 10 hits to each), but the facilities were already in a state of damage from the start of the war.
 
Java Sea:  An IJN CL/DD force entered this region and came close to a bunch of Allied TFs (both transport and combat).  I have alot of shipping moving about under the protection of three combat TFs, so we'll see if anything further comes of this.  Mainly, the Allies are trying to organize the effort to retrieve units from frontline bases that will be involved in the China Invasion.  Most of these units will be brought to Balikpan and Makassar as staging points.
 
Vietnam:  A strong Allied army is nearing Hue, which a Japanaese unit recently reclaimed.  I actually have mixed feelings about this move - taking a base on the South China Sea will offer a "port in the storm" when the Allies invade coastal China, but it also draws Miller's attention to this area and may get him to thinking along the same lines that I am - Allied move on China rather than Philippines.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Miri:  B-24s from Manado, Ternate and other bases focused on Miri's oil and refinery.  Damage done was relatively modest (about 10 hits to each), but the facilities were already in a state of damage from the start of the war.

Hi CR,

Many IJ players won't repair the refineries on Miri, but they will go out of their way to repair OIL, per se. Can you preferentially target OIL for greater pain, as refineries are a dime a dozen for him now.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a map of the situation around Borneo in late August 1944. The Allies have taken control of the eastern, southern, and southwestern sectors of the island. This has effectively isolated Java and threatens to islolate Palembang as soon as the Allies can build up good airfields at Pontianak, Singkawang, Billiton Island, and Kuching. The Allies will also seize some of the other small, lightly defended islands in the area, like Montak.

The KB has been absent for weeks now. I feel sure that the Japanese carriers are upgrading at home, else Miller would have contested the rapid Allied moves that took so many bases on Borneo's southwest coast.

Now the Allies are catching their breath, retrieving troops from forward bases (a project that will take weeks) and preparing for the next big move.

I hope Miller is concentrating on the threat to the Philippines, Java and Sumatra. In actuality, the next big Allied move will be on coastal China. The aim is threefold: (1) obtain big bases to permit bombing of the Home Islands; (2) unhinge the entire Japanese defensive position in China and Vietnam; and (3) to bring about a massive carrier battle somewhere in the South China Sea.

Chickenboy: I thought refineries were as important as oil? Perhaps I'm wrong. I can focus on either or both at Miri/Brunei. Of course, I'll also target oil at Palembang (unless the Allied advance truly prevents Miller from extracting oil). The oil facilities at Miri, Palembang, and Balikpan suffered pretty heavy damage during the Japanese conquests at the start of the war, so Miller may be hurting in this category.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I thought refineries were as important as oil?

AFAIK they are, and I've been led to understand that the IJ home islands have lots of excess refining capacity. So oil is a choke point.

[Chickenboy]

Yes. This is right. The home islands have an excess refining capacity. They need Miri's OIL, not REFINERY capabilities. Blow up the oil if given a choice between the two, Canoerebel.

ETA: Canoerebel: Refineries turn OIL into FUEL (with some supply too). No OIL=eventually no FUEL OR OIL, regardless of the state of refineries. Palembang does 'import' some oil from elsewhere on Sumatra automatically (don't ask), so some will continue to arrive at Palembang even if you annihlate the OIL facilties, but it's a good place to start...

[vettim89]

Dan,

Been lurking here. Love your AAR. You are certainly the champion of different approaches. THe DEI Gambit in your first game with Miller, then the Sakhalin Island Gambit in Forlorn Hopes, again the DEI Gambit (Borneo version) in this AAR, and now we get the CHina Gambit. Loveing it

Resuming lurk mode

[Canoerebel]

8/27/44 and 8/28/44
 
Vettim:  Thanks for the comments - I'm really looking forward to implementing the "China Gambit."  Should be a matter of a month game time, or about a week or ten days real time.
 
Bitten by the too-many-sub-units bug:  I can't load any troops aboard transports.  When I try to do so I get an error message something to the effect of having too many sub units.  Others have faced this before, so I'm trying to figure out if there's a way to fix it.  I assume there is.
 
Tarakan:  Two Aussie brigades have arrived and got ashore in good shape.  The Allies have 1300+ AV against about 300 IJA AV.  Ordered a deliberate attack tomorrow.
 
Elsewhere in the DEI:  I have troops at Timor ready to invade Raba and Dem Passar, but can't proceed until the sub-unit bug is resolved.  I also can't retrieve units from forward bases to take them to the China Gambit staging areas.  Fortunately, this has occurred at a down time for the Allies, so I have some time to address this.
 
Vietnam:  Most of the Allied army has arrived at Hue and will attack in a few days.  The Japanese have reinforced.  If the attack doesn't yield promising results this army will withdraw back toward Ubon.
 
Bangkok:  The Allies will try another deliberate attack here - taking Bangkok will free up 2500 AV that can be used elsewhere.
 
Chengtah:  The Chinese tried a probing deliberate attack here that turned out very badly (as usual for the Chinese).  I don't see any opportunities for the Chinese to break the stalemates here and at Changsha.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bitten by the too-many-sub-units bug:  I can't load any troops aboard transports.  When I try to do so I get an error message something to the effect of having too many sub units.  Others have faced this before, so I'm trying to figure out if there's a way to fix it.  I assume there is.

Apply the hotfix 1102aa. If you can't find it online, let me know-I can email it to you when I get home from 'work'.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Chickenboy.  I took Sprior up on his offer to do the same thing.  If that doesn't work, for some reason, I'll get back in touch with you.

[Canoerebel]

8/29/44 to 9/3/44
 
Palembang:  On 9/2/44, an Allied CL/DD TFs tangled with an IJN CL/DD TF at Palembang, with neither side taking much damage.  Then, a following Allied CL/DD TF intercepted a juicy Japanese transport TF in port, sinking a DD and 12 xAK.
 
Borneo:  The Allies continue to consolidate troops and move base force units to forward bases like Singkawang and Kuching.  An Allied deliberate attack at Tarakan inflicted much great damage on the defenders; the Allies will try again tomorrow.  An APD TF will lift an Aussie Brigade from Singakawang to what I hope is an undefended Montok (a base on the island just north of Palembang).  Allied 4EB regularly raid Miri's oil (in accordance with the advice provided by Chickenboy).
 
West of Timor:  Allied invasion TFs are loading for Raba and Dem Passar.  Both bases are lightly held, I'm not using much, and I'm not providing much in the way of protection.
 
Allied Carriers:  Have retired to Darwin to replenish.  CV Hancock has joined the group and CV Randolph is on the way from Townsville.  CV Indomitable is on the way to Darwin from Perth.  CV Ticonderaga just arrived at Balboa and will make for Oz.  CV Constellation will be ready for action at Capetown in 10 days.
 
KB:  Still no sign of it.  I have no doubt that Miller is planning a massive CV/LBA kamikazee strike, hoping for something along the lines of Chickenboy's results.  I don't intend to fall into a trap, but I can't completely negate the possibility.  The Japanese have plenty of airbases on Java, Sumatra, and Malaya so that any Allied sortie into the South China Sea will be at risk.  On the plus side, the Allies have a good patrol network that covers the southern reaches of the South China Sea and I think the "China Gambit" should catch the Japanese by surprise so that the risk of a combined arms attack is relativley small.
 
China Gambit:  The Allies are shuffling troops around.  I'm probably at least two weeks away from allocating transports and beginning to load.  The Allies have far more troops than they can carry given the recent victory at Balikpan, which freed up five more infantry divisions.  The invasion force with carriers covering will transit the Java Sea under LRCAP provided by new airfields like Pontiatak.  Then the force will head north as though Miri/Brunei are the next targets.  My hope will be to draw out the IJN carriers.  I'll accept battle if I can orchestrate battle on neutral or favorable turf.  When the Allied force suddenly moves NW to the China coast I would expect Miller to panic a bit to reshuffle aircraft and prepare for a desperate battle. 
 
Vietnam:  The Allied attack at Hue didn't turn out well, so this expeditionary army will retire to Ubon to rest.  I really didn't want to draw Miller's attention to coastal Vietnam, so this is okay by me.  British and Chinese troops will continue to make noise in the interior of Vietnam and around Hanoi, but I won't make any further moves toward the coast until the "China Gambit" is ready to go.
 
Bangkok:  The Allies will try another deliberate attack tomorrow.
 
Points:  Three or four days ago, the point spread fell under 7,000 for the first time.  IJ 59,500; Allies 52,600.
 
Q-Ball vs. Canoerebel:  We're in the process of beginning a game.  I think it will be Scenario 2, and Q-Ball will take the IJ side.  He's got alot going on this week, so we won't actually kick it off for awhile yet.  This will be my first match against anyone other than Miller and John III since way back around 2003 when I played Admiral Dadman in a UV game.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
KB:  Still no sign of it.  I have no doubt that Miller is planning a massive CV/LBA kamikazee strike, hoping for something along the lines of Chickenboy's results.

[&:]