June 11, 1943
My search AC did not find the allied carriers today, at least directly. Three Dinahs were lost to CAP at Luganville and there is a lot of shipping there. My experience is that you are most likely to lose search AC to CAP when carriers are present, though it can happen at other times, especially if your altitude is below 15k feet. So I think that is where they are.
My own carriers made port today at Rabaul just as the first allied recon shows up there. [8|] What bad timing! One more day and they would not have been there. At any rate, they are heading south to the central Solomons to await developments.
Recon over Rabaul kinda freaked me out. I checked on the range of various allied bombers and found that the B-24D can just reach there from Cooktown. So rather than provide an open invitation for witpqs to bomb the port, I left only 2 ACMs anchored in the port. Everyone else, including all the support ships and reserve forces was formed into one large TF from which I will draw ships as needed. I also moved some fighters in to defend the place.
By my calculations, the allies only get about 120 B-24D's. They have lost about 30. The B-24D1 model cannot reach Rabaul from Cooktown. Still, 100 heavy bombers hitting my port would be bad news indeed.
I think that attrition is really starting to wear down the B-17s. Three more B-17F's were shot down today over Milne Bay. At most the allies get about 48 of these and about 30 are gone. B-17E's have also been worn down. If I am figuring things right, the allies get about 200 of these and so far about 100 have been lost. Pretty soon witpqs will have to start relying on the B-24s and those have proven more vulnerable because of their lower durability (only 60 versus 68 for the B-17). I am pretty sure this is why witpqs has been using B-17s against Milne Bay.
Speaking of which: I really do wonder what he is trying to accomplish by bombing this base. Kill my planes? I can make more. Kill my pilots? I really don't lose that many when fight over my own bases, especially when my pilots only have to tangle with the bombers. It can't be that he wants to shut down the runway. So far my engineers have been able to keep it open, if not necessarily in good shape. And there are 4 more airfields right next to it that have not been touched. Maybe he is just trying to distract me or pin me in place, since I have to defend the field?
Heavy radio transmissions today from Pearl Harbor (yawn) and Vava'u. That last is more intriguing. It is possible that he is assembling his forces in the Samoa/Fiji region there for his next invasion. Using Vava'u as an assembly point could point towards the Gilberts. Or maybe he just wants to clean out Suva. Indeed, I wonder if he will just leave those forces in place and bypass them, or try to clean up his back field. I have sent some subs with supplies down there to keep the garrison fed; I don't want them to die of attrition and I wish to leave open the option of flying in some planes to muck with him at some point.
Over in China, I am planning an offensive against Kweilin in order to deprive the Chinese of more supply. In preparation for this offensive, I am moving several divisions to threaten Changsa. The idea here is to pose a threat to Changsa so that the forces there will be less likely to be used to reinforce Kweilin.
