Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Walloc]

Deleted, wrong thread!

Rasmus

[Canoerebel]

2/20/42 and 2/21/42

The noose continues to tighten around Oz, but I am not persuaded at this time....

Australia: Japan is landing at Norfolk Island, a fine patrol aircraft base that makes it hard to get in and out of New Zealand's north island. The first of the reinforcements arrived - a machine gun battalion from the west landed at Adelaide and a USA base force from the east landed at Melbourne. Despite all the ominous developments around Oz, I won't be convinced that this is more than an elaborate show until I begin seeing big units involved (more than 144th Regiment that landed at Cooktown) with the KB covering the landings.

India: No move yet on Port Blair. About half the Burma Army has arrived at Imphal; another quarter is off in the jungle and a good ten days away; the last quarter is in or near Akyab. The first two units of the Aussie division is on the train from Karachi to Calcutta. SigInt shows 53rd Division prepping for Diamond Harbor. This is a repeat of SigInt from a month or more back.

NoPac: Transports with an Army RCT (Sep) just arrived at Attu Island. I also bought a similar unit this turn and ordered it to embark at Seattle bound for Dutch Island. That may be it for the Aleutians for the time being.

SoPac: It will be a long time, if ever, before I can reinforce Suva. Should it fall, there's a chance I will never try to retake it. It will be quite some time before I will consider reinforcing New Zealand. Should Brad move on it soon, I would plan to retake it, but probably not until it became a largely irrelevant backwater in the game. These are two areas that the Allies don't mind deep Japanese advances as they aren't hugely important to my future plans except that I can use them for good diversin purposes.

Japanese Advances: Guam invaded; Norfolk Island invaded; Batavia falls; Cooktown falls; Sabang falls.

[John 3rd]

Dan,

Been a while since I could read and catch-up on the Campaign. My gut tells me that you should know no later then March 15th. The Invasion Bonus will expire soon and he HAS to show his hand quickly. When and where was the last time you saw his CVs?

I REALLY like sending the RCT to Attu. Usually the Japanese don't really do much recon up there as they assume it is empty. Placing a unit of strength really gives you a chance to smacking down a Japanese Landing and forcing him to divert more resources north.

Only comment that is somewhat critical is gathering all the CVs in Capetown. The Brits and US didn't work well together IRL so the historian in me balks at the move but I will say that is one heck of a lot of firepower! How long does it take for Hornet to get the Capetown?

Keep up the good work.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, John. I'm glad to see you got your "signature" issue fixed! It's also a treat to have you comment considering our history - especially our wild and wooly WitP game.

The last sighting of the Mini-KB - which was pretty powerful - came off Geraldton, Australia, on February 7. The last sighting of the KB was between Oz and New Guinea, covering IJ landings at Port Moresby, sometime in early or mid January. So those carrier could be just about anywhere. I'm okay with that, though, because the only area I have that's very sensitive at the moment is the south coast of Australia, and that's protected by picket ships on both sides.

Real life consideration has no bearing on this game beyond what the devlopers gave us. The developers designed a game and then turned it over to us. This is purely three dimensional chess and there are no political conequences to massing carriers or losing hundreds of ships or making big mistakes. The Japanese Army and Navy are free to cooperate; Japan has the benefit of unimagineable foreknowledge in planning their early war moves; and the Allies can leave New Zealand to it's fate.

Example: Here, Q-Ball totally ignored Guan until late February. The real life Japanese apparently felt Guan was a priority target, but Brad knows otherwise. Good move on his part. Three-dimensional chess.

[vettim89]

Hmmmm. Three dimensional chess?


Fascinating (pronounced faaaaaascinating)

Mr. Spock

[Cribtop]

Technically, it's a two-dimensional electronic simulation of three dimensional chess.

I agree with John III that whatever Brad is up to he will have to do it soon as one presumes he will want to land not later than the last week of March to catch the invasion bonus. Watch for sigint of TFs leaving port or even just "heavy volume of radio traffic" messages at a particular port as that could be the launch of the big invasion.

What about sending a few more Stinger raids toward likely anchorages of KB? You might ferret out the location of his CVs, which in turn tells you a lot about his invasion target or targets.

[HMS Resolution]

As an aside, there were serious proposals to organize all the British and American carriers in the Pacific into a super-task force in about April or May of 1942. The Somerville Papers mention it several times.

[ny59giants]

SigInt shows 53rd Division prepping for Diamond Harbor. This is a repeat of SigInt from a month or more back.

This a division that is restricted to Japan. Not high on my list of early war troops that I want to use PPs for. There are too many in Manchuria that will be leaving.

Suggestion - move a significant amount of American subs, especially S-boats, to India. You get plenty in the USA and if he goes for India he will need to keep transports running back and forth.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents, for comments and suggestions:

1. NYGiants: Good advice re: S-boats; also, thank you for the 53rd info. I was too lazy to look it up, but I thought it might be part of the Kwangtun units.
2. HMS Resolution: That's interesting to know. So my a-historic move with my carriers isn't all that a-historic!
3. Cribtop: Good idea with regard to the Stingers. Right now, most of my DDs are tied down inescort duty. Since my losses to enemy subs are negligible in the game - in complete, total, diametrically opposite fashion to my last game - I'm pleased with this use. But I'll see if I can siphon off one or two to nose around Kwajalein and Truk. That's where I'm getting the "heavy radio traffic" SigInt info.

[John 3rd]

Can I photoshop your Southern Gentlemen Avatar? Seems only fair after that FINE work you did for my signature!

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: HMS Resolution

As an aside, there were serious proposals to organize all the British and American carriers in the Pacific into a super-task force in about April or May of 1942. The Somerville Papers mention it several times.

Yes, and Victorious worked fairly well with the American carriers for the brief time she was in SoPac. My understanding is that the Americans were impressed by the British vectoring system and adopted some of the British methods after working with Victorious.

[Canoerebel]

2/22/42 to 2/25/42

We are continuing the phase of "Brad is taking what I'm giving him." Soon - very soon I think - he'll come calling somewhere that I'm not willing to concede. Then the battle will be on.

Oz: BB Fuso and some friends engage in a pre-invasion bombardment of Darwin on the 22nd; then 33rd Regiment, 148th Regiment, and Guards Mixed Brigade come ashore. This force is enough to take the lightly defended city on the 24th, but it's not enough to threaten a "grand campaign into the interior" barring serious reinforcement. Over on the east coast, IJN LBA hits the port at Townsville, sinking two small ships. To the south, all but one of the transport convoys have arrived at Melbourne and Adelaide, bringing one and two-thirds divisions with them. Hurrah!

India: The Burma Army has mostly arrived at the first line of bases, now, so the extraction has been a success. 17th Independant Guards lands at Port Blair beginning on the 23rd, but the base has held as of the 25th, though forts are down to one. If Miller has big plans for India, I think he would hit Addu Atoll and/or Ceylon pretty quickly. Akyab could also be a target in the short term. SigInt said 81st Div. (or it may have been 8/1st Div.) is on a ship making for Singapore. I have no idea what to make of this, though it could be part of an invasion force heading west).

Hawaii: Very quiet all around Hawaii; ordinarily that could even be interpreted as ominous, but in this case the Allies have used the interval to strongly reinforce Hilo and Kona. Since there haven't even been any sniffs around the Line Islands or Midway, I'm beginning to think Hawaii isn't a target. I'll still reinforce a bit, but pretty soon it will be time to look at reinforcing other important islands.

China: The Chinese reclaimed Kwangchoan when the Japanese unit moved off to the southwest to take Pakhoi. This doesn't mean anything. The Japanese are not being particularly aggressive at the moment. The Allies won a small battle - four units vs. four IJA divisions - in the woods near Hengyang. That's probably the first battle of any size to go the way of the Chinese.

Sub Wars: I-8 missed one of the xAP troop transports approaching Adelaide on the 24th; I-21 missed an xAK off San Diego; Pike got an xAK near Formosa. I cannot tell you have vastly different the sub wars in the game have been to date. By February '42 in my game with Miller, the IJN subs had already reached a fever pitch that drove me to distraction for many, many months. It is a huge relief not to experience that again to date.

[Canoerebel]

2/26/42 and 2/27/42

While the "calm before the storm" - the "deep breath before the plunge" - continues, the Allies add a bevy of reinforcements right where they are most needed.

Australia: A bunch of reinforcements arrive in Australia - nothing with any real combat value, but lots of engineers and artillery. This allows the Allies to add some units to forward bases (especially Rockhampton and the base to the north), bolstering the appearance of defense where little actually exists (admit it, even if you don't know the composition of units, a stack of four or seven or fifteen units psychologically has a certain affect). The transports carrying the big units from America and Aden have nearly finished unloading. The American division is concentrating at Sydney. I may split the Australian division between Melbourne and Perth, or I might send them to Rockhampton and Townsville.

India: Port Blair falls to the evil enemy on the 27th, opening the way for serious Japanese incursions into this theater if Brad is so inclined. Fortunately, a truckload of good reinforcements just arrived - a division at Bangalore, brigades at Madras, Lahore, and another base, Caribiners at Karachi, and some decent Australian engineers at Aden. I'm leaving the Bangalore and Madras units in place. The Lahore brigade goes to Calcutta. Caribiners go to Diamond Harbor. The Oz engineers mostly go to Diego Garcia, with one other going to Addu. With the extraction of the Burma army nearly complete, the India defenses are about where I wanted them to be at this point.

Aleutians: The reinforcing unit is ashore at Adak Island (I think I previously said it was heading for Attu). Another is just a few days away from Dutch Island. A Stinger force of four DDs will pay a visit to Paramushiro tonight. If Brad was awaiting spring weather to lauch a campaign up here, the time has arrived.

Hawaii: All quiet on the Pacific front, except enemy subs here and there.

Japanese Advances: In addition to Port Blair, the Japanese take Lashio, Schwebo, Malang, and Davao.

Sub Wars: Plunger claims an xAK near Toyohara. Allied subs have had quite the success in this region.

[Canoerebel]

2/28/42

So we've reached the end of February...where do we stand?

Points: The Japanese have a 2:1 lead - roughly 12k to 6k. Losses for aircraft are identical. The Allies have lost 200 ships for 2k points (the vast majority of these are the eight (IIRC) BBs sunk at Pearl and Kuantan the first week of the war). The Japanese have lost 54 ships for about 300 points.

Japanese Momentum: The Japanese have progressed far and fast, having already taken down to Carnarvon on Oz's west coast; down to Palm Island on the east coast; all of New Caledonia; Norfolk Island, and all of New Guinea. Each of these was surrendered without a fight as the Allies have drawn a line in the sand that Brad hasn't crossed yet. No doubt Japan is busy prepping for the next big move, but I have no idea yet where it will come.

Allied Preparation: The Allies have chosen southern Oz, Ceylon and India, and Hawaii as the "line in the sand" locations. Although all signs thus far have poitned to a major Japanese move on Oz, the Allies have spent about equal resources and reinforcements on each of the three. Of the three, India is in the best shape, though Ceylon isn't as strong as I'd like. Diverting one Aussie division to India rather than sending it to Oz has left the latter a little under-protected, but USA troops helped fill the gap. Hawaii is fairly strongly garrisoned now.

Danger Meter: If you judged future intentions solely upon current Japanese activity in and around the three main targets, you would rate the three big targets: Australia 90%; India 9%; Hawaii 1%. So the fact that I've allocated reinforcements roughly equally tells you that I'm not playing the percentages. I think Brad is a cagey, dangerous opponent.

Subwars: I-21 off San Diego finally claimed a victim - an empty xAK. Several big ASW squadrons have trained up to the 60s in ASW skill, so I've assigned them to duty at SD, LA, and SF.

[Canoerebel]

3/1/42 and 3/2/42

My Bad: The four-DD Stinger force I assigned to Paramushiro? I forgot to toggle off "Do Not Retire," so I lost three of them to a large group of Bettys and Vals. Para has the only airfield in close proximity.

India: No sign of enemy forces headed this way.

Oz: No signs of enemy forces headed this way. Queen Elizabeth is about to complete unloading at Sydney. When she's done, I'll withdraw her. I-161 claimed an already damaged PG Isbel outside Sydney - the PG had been damaged by enemy aircraft while at Townsville. One of the reinforcing Aussie brigades is going to Geraldton. The Japanese force from Darwin advanced and took Fenton. This group of two regiments, one brigade and one tank regiment is too strong - at about 650 AV - for the force I can cobble together at Katherine. I'll probably withdraw all the way to Alice Springs. If Brad looks like he's coming that far, I'll send reinforcements from the east coast.

Hawaii: No signs of enemy forces headed this way. The Allies landed a small infantry detachment at Canton Island. RO-67 was waiting, but was driven off by the DD escort.

Java: Dutch bombers scored hits on four xAK north of the island, matching their tally for the war to date. On the 2nd, the Japanese tried their first attack at Soerabaja. The force includes 21st Div. Forts dropped from three to two, but the 1:2 attack cost the Japanese much more in casualties.

Sub Wars: Truant knocked out a troop transport (xAK) near Medan. Aircraft patrols off the West Coast continue to sight IJN subs and even reported hitting one.

Readiing the Tea Leaves: Still no signs which way Brad is heading.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Readiing the Tea Leaves: Still no signs which way Brad is heading.

Maybe the Emperor has summoned military leaders to his castle for peace negotiations? Maybe he's learned the error of his ways? Maybe everything is going to be just hunky-dory? Maybe he's heading back to Japan to stand down?

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Readiing the Tea Leaves: Still no signs which way Brad is heading.

Maybe the Emperor has summoned military leaders to his castle for peace negotiations? Maybe he's learned the error of his ways? Maybe everything is going to be just hunky-dory? Maybe he's heading back to Japan to stand down?

Or maybe he is sailing towards Seattle

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Java: Dutch bombers scored hits on four xAK north of the island, matching their tally for the war to date. On the 2nd, the Japanese tried their first attack at Soerabaja. The force includes 21st Div. Forts dropped from three to two, but the 1:2 attack cost the Japanese much more in casualties.

I've been pleasantly surprised in my second game at how well the little Dutch bombers (Falcons esp.) do when I pay attention to training, and put them all at Soerbaja with limited ranges and good support. The code seems to target them almost exclusively onto xAKLs, and not suicides on passing CAs, and their tiny bombs of fury can do in an xAKL traveling alone or with a PB. In my first game I pretty much gave up on the Dutch air forces as a time sink, but with good pilots, and low-altitudes, they've done at least OK.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Maybe the Emperor has summoned military leaders to his castle for peace negotiations? Maybe he's learned the error of his ways? Maybe everything is going to be just hunky-dory? Maybe he's heading back to Japan to stand down?

It's not nice to fool Father Good Guy! [:-]

[:)]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Smeulders
Or maybe he is sailing towards Seattle

All I have there are BBs Warspite and Colorado, so I hope not....