Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

I am pleasantly surprised that so many of you can recite events from three years ago game time. I know it's hard to play the game and to follow the AARs of others, so I just didn't expect this level of attention. Thank you. And I'll do my best in the AAR with Q-Ball.

Some comments about important points of the game:

1. Two Disagreements: Miller and I had a few strong disagreements during the course of the game. Most recently, he objected to my use of solo-DDs to scout enemy waters west of Borneo. Prior to that the situation in China - mainly the effect of "nuclear artillery," but also the destruction of the Chinese economy by strategic bombing - caused great angst on my part. I made things tough on Miller, because on the one hand I urged "No house rules, do your worst;" but, after we had put months into the game and discovered that there was no possible way to defend China against the twin Japanese scourges, I changed my mind. But I did a very poor job articulating my feelings to Miller and left him rather confused. We even terminated the game for a few weeks in November.

2. The Re-Do on the Allied Carrier Victory in Java in '42: There was no way to fix this problem. Every time Miller ran the replay, the game crashed. So we had to re-do the turn. Unfortunately for the Allies, the re-do was far less of an Allied victory. But there was nothing else that Miller could do, so I had no qualms with this.

3. Pilot Training: The Japanese airforce remained nearly the equal of the Allied airforce utnil the end of the game in April 1945. That should not be. I assume that the source of the problem was my total failure to engage in pilot training. The Allies had total superiority of the seas, but the failure to gain control of the air kept the Allies in check throughout the game and really ramped up my losses.

4. Two-Day Turns: Love these - LOVE THEM! But I love them to much, I confess. We were moving so quickly, and I wanted to get through the game so badly, that I cut alot of corners and flipped turns almost instantaneously. I didn't watch combat replays for the last year-plus of the game and often times I ignored for weeks at a time entire sectors of the map over the past six months of the game. I also refused to engage pilot training and stopped setting search arcs many months ago. I stopped paying attention to many, many details. This hurt me in the game, but helped us move the game along at break-neck speed. I think one-day turns may be preferable in that they impose a little more moderation, which, in turn, seems to encourage more attention to detail.

5. Turning Point: The turning point came very, very late in the game - autumn of 1944. Miller committed the KB against a huge Allied invasion armada as it approached the southwest cape of Borneo. This was understandable - he was sure that Palembang or Singapore were the targets. Had he withheld the KB for awhile, attacking when my ships were in no-man's-land on the way to Hainan Island, the battle would have been bloody and Allied losses would have been higher. This would have blunted and slowed the ensuing Allied offensive in China. I think had Miller withheld the KB, the results would have been dramatic enough that most readers would have declared the game a Japanese victory by the time it ended.

6. Bad Allied Decisions: By far the worst decision I made in the game was the invasion of Luganville in June 1942. It was awful because I dragged things out so long that Miller knew exactly when and where I was going and had a huge reception awaiting. That and the dreaded carriers-react-against-orders feature combined to devastate the Allied carrier fleet. I actually think the invasion of the Kuriles in March 1943 was a good move, though it ended badly. I achieved strategic surprise and put good troops ashore, but through mismanagement of my fleet and some uber shoreguns I lost most of my supply transports. The other factor was that the invasion released a large number of home guard units - I hadn't realized this would happen - which allowed Miller to put together a counter-invasion when he otherwise couldn't have for much longer. That operation came pretty close to being an outstanding and crippling victory.

7. For want of a nail the shoe was lost: The Kuriles did have one very fortunate benefit. Miller sent in a four-BB combat TF. Somehow, thigns went awry and all four of those BBs got sunk. It started with small things like a PT boat getting lucky with a TT. It was at this point that the serious depletion of the IJN began.

8. Say What?! I reached a pont of utter frustration soon after the massive Battle of Morotai in November 1943. That carrier battle turned out very badly for the Allies - again, the react-against-orders feature was a killer - and was licking my wounds. Then, a strong Allied combat force anchored by BB South Dakota, encountered a weak IJN combat force anchored by a CL. The Japanese TF sank South Dakota. That one nearly drove me to drink.

9. Thanks, General Sherman! The Allies were largely ignoring Burma when I got the idea of using my very weak force to try and outmaneuver the Japanese force at Akyab. This succeeded there and then at Rangoon. Suddenly, a theater I had intended to ignore became the theater of greatest advance for the Allies.

10. Holy Subs! Japanese submarines attained a level of mayhem unparalleled in the history of gaming. I mean I lost an incredible amount of ships - including nearly ten BBs - to Miller's subs. In part, this was due to some code-tweaks that had unforeseen uber-sub consequences; in part it was due to Miller's use of subs; in part my failure to adapt adequate countermeasures fast enough; and in part to pure luck.

[JeffroK]

Well played both Dan & Miller.

It was a very interesting and exiting approach through a (previously) rarely unused direction.

The game has also put forward some questions as to the game engine, many of these resulted in patches which has made AE a better game for all, thanks.

Who won??

I would say that Dan won clearly, especially as this is Scen 2 which helps the Empire.
My view is also that Miller lost, given his extra resources he should have conquered much more and had Dan running on his external lines plugging gaps. Maybe because Dan was aggressive, and the CV raid on Soerbaja was nearly a war winner, Miller sat on his internal lines and used his originally superior force to counter attack.

In addition, as Dan admits with his lack of attention to detail, the Allied forces could have been in a better position earlier.

Also the problems in China caused both players a problem, Miller suffered because of the nuke artillery problems and his ceasefire, then Dan when his counteroffensive was stopped by the UN reminding him of a ceasefire[8D]

If someone was really smart & patient with photoshop, it would be great to see a series of campaign maps of the "war"

[Ketza]

This is one of the few reports I read almost daily and am sad that it is over. Very well done to both of you!

Its amazing how such a long game that involves so much planning and time commitment can be summed up in a few battles or that the results of a few battles can swing the whole war in one direction or another. Just like real life I suppose.

[John 3rd]

It has been a magnificent read.

Dan--Your writing style and constant 'thinking' within the entries made for the read to be truly superior. I think the best AARs feature lots of thinking, questioning, realizations, and serious evaluations. You do all these in a masterful manner.

[JeffroK]

Can someone, set up a sub forum of "Classic AAR", maybe those which get the war into 1945 or have "2000" posts.

These are the result of a fantastic investment of time & effort and are a great advertisement and training aid.

(They could be "stickied" but might swamp following efforts"

[Andrew Brown]

Since my CAP and flak were pretty ineffective, the results would have been catastrophic had he been able to get everybody to coordinate.

A question if I may: Out of interest (I haven't read the entire AAR, so maybe this is already answered), what do you think is the reason for ineffective flak? Are you talking about naval flak only, or all flak?

Thanks,
Andrew

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown

Since my CAP and flak were pretty ineffective, the results would have been catastrophic had he been able to get everybody to coordinate.

A question if I may: Out of interest (I haven't read the entire AAR, so maybe this is already answered), what do you think is the reason for ineffective flak? Are you talking about naval flak only, or all flak?

Thanks,
Andrew

I think Dan is specifically speaking to the poor performance on USN flak late in the war. Those of us that have played Andy Mac's Marianas scenario have noticed the same thing. At the point where it should be lethal it actually performs worse than IJN flak of the same era. Dan can elaborate but I am pretty sure that is what he was talking about

[FatR]

Oh, and I totally forgot to say this: thanks for the good read, Canoerebel! Not often we enjoy a well-presented AAR that goes into 1945.

[Houtje]

Well played both of you & thanks for another great read.

[vettim89]

Dan,

I know this is an odd question to ask at this point, but it has to do with two day turns. How did you work the CAP at PH and Clark using two day turns for the first set of turns. Where you able to set the CAP and it did not fly on 7 december?

[Bullwinkle58]

I'm late to the party, haivng been State Fairing it, so I'll just echo all the other comments. Good game, and I learned a lot too. Interesting playing through the midst of so much patching. I know, haivng started a second GC myself, how much it helps haivng been through the phases once.

[Miller]

Hello all. Just finished reading through the AAR.

It has been a privilege to take part in this epic encounter, and I think Dan has already summed up most of the game in his comments. However if anyone has any specific questions for me I will try my best to answer them.

As to the overall result, I think Dan was the narrow winner......but in the end this game is far more than just about who wins and loses.

I will be taking a few months off before starting my next game, playing as the Allies!


PS> I am happy to put up my final turn here for everyone to have a look at, but not sure how to go about it........the file is too big to upload into this post.

[JohnDillworth]

Hello all. Just finished reading through the AAR.

It has been a privilege to take part in this epic encounter, and I think Dan has already summed up most of the game in his comments. However if anyone has any specific questions for me I will try my best to answer them.

Thanks, one quick comment and a couple of questions.
It seems that keeping the KB in one big DeathStar is the only way keep your carriers intact until the end of the game. Sorry, that airstrike hit the CVE's at the end.

questions:
Could you outline how you trained pilots?
How close were you to activating the Russians?
Where were the largest concentration of troops left (trapped)?
Were the home islands striped of airpower or did you have significant forces left to counter strategic bombing?
Did the Central Pacific have any significant defenses (Mariana's, Truk) or were these pulled back?
What would you do different during the first year of the ar?

thanks

[Canoerebel]

Paul, after you've answered JohnDillworth's questions, how about this:

During a game there are many times where a player thinks, "Man, if my opponent knew "x, y, z" he would do "a, b, c." You know - a player has a glaring weakness in one particular area, or has been caught off guard in another, or has a problem with something. Do you recall any occasions where the Allies missed ibg opportunities to really hurt Japan?

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Hello all. Just finished reading through the AAR.

It has been a privilege to take part in this epic encounter, and I think Dan has already summed up most of the game in his comments. However if anyone has any specific questions for me I will try my best to answer them.

Thanks, one quick comment and a couple of questions.
It seems that keeping the KB in one big DeathStar is the only way keep your carriers intact until the end of the game. Sorry, that airstrike hit the CVE's at the end.

questions:
Could you outline how you trained pilots?
How close were you to activating the Russians?
Where were the largest concentration of troops left (trapped)?
Were the home islands striped of airpower or did you have significant forces left to counter strategic bombing?
Did the Central Pacific have any significant defenses (Mariana's, Truk) or were these pulled back?
What would you do different during the first year of the ar?

thanks

Yep, one thing I learned reading other AAR's is to keep the KB together, even in the first few months. The Stonage vs Spruance AAR shows what happens if you split the big six up.......

One tip is to accelerate all the Unyru class CVs, halt the Taiho/Shinano, Musashi and the later subs to pay for it. With these extra 6 flight decks at least you will have parity until early 44. Convert all the CS to CVL as well, pointless having them in a search/ASW role when you have plenty of LBA to do that job.

Re your questions:

1) The Japs get plenty of training sqds. I simply filled them with replacement pilots and set them to 100% training, range 1. Once they reach overall exp 50, specific skill 70 they are ready for duty, as they gain little after this. I did not bother with TRACOM, I think its a waste of time.

I'm not sure if having a leader with high exp made much difference to the speed they trained either. I always had a ratio of at least 1 a/c for every two pilots in a training group, I think having one plane for 48 pilots is rather gamey.

2) I always made sure I had enough troops in place to avoid a Russian activation. IMO this would be a disaster for Japan, as it leaves the HI open to strategic bombing. I'm not sure why any Jap player would want to invade Russia, far too much risk for little gain.

3) I had large pockets left in Bangcock, Singapore and Hong Kong, but these were mostly restricted units that could not be air lifted out. Java was almost empty. Look after your air transports if playing as Japan, they are vital later in the game. Build plenty of the H8K-2L, these monsters can lift a large unit in a few days.

4) The JAAF fighter units were still in good shape with plenty of trained pilots in reserve. I was producing approx 500 fighters a month but this would have gone down as my HI reserve ran out (I'm guessing around Jul/Aug 45). The few B29 raids that had taken place had been surprisingly ineffective.

5) Cenpac was a total non-event, just like in our WITP game. I did have a Div at the bigger bases early in the game but most of these were shipped to China or the PI by the end of the game. Most of the bigger islands were left with around 100AV each.

6) I have seen several comments saying I did not expand far enough in the game. This was simply not possible due to the early CV battle near Suyabaya (the one which had to be replayed). I suffered heavy damage to several CVs that put them out of the game for months, so covering any far off invasion was likely to be very risky.

Can I just add the difference in outcomes from the replay of that turn was not great - Dans losses were identitcal whilst I lost one less CVL and a couple of the bigger CVs took less damage, although of course this still had knock on consequences for the rest of the game.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Paul, after you've answered JohnDillworth's questions, how about this:

During a game there are many times where a player thinks, "Man, if my opponent knew "x, y, z" he would do "a, b, c." You know - a player has a glaring weakness in one particular area, or has been caught off guard in another, or has a problem with something. Do you recall any occasions where the Allies missed ibg opportunities to really hurt Japan?

Hi Dan,

To be honest nothing really springs to mind. My main weakness was concentrating on the "Here and now" rather than the big picture, so I was just reacting to your moves most of the time rather than thinking of the long term implication of my actions.

The DEI island hopping campaign was a real meatgrinder for my Navy, OK I did achieve some tactical victories but strategically I was always the loser, much like Guadalcanal I suppose..........

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Miller

PS> I am happy to put up my final turn here for everyone to have a look at, but not sure how to go about it........the file is too big to upload into this post.

You should be able to zip it and post it

[stldiver]

I have followed this AAR from the start and must say congrats to both Dan and Miller.

It is always an accomplishment for the game to go this far and both sides still involved.

Thank you for an enjoyable time. I learned a lot that I applied or adjusted in my games.

[Canoerebel]

Paul, when you think about the awful carnage in the DEI - and the terrific losses suffered by the IJN over the course of a year - I have to say it was worth it. You handled your defenses here superbly. It cost me a great deal too, forced me to advance very slowly (methodically, if I want to cast it in an optimistic light), and meant that the Allies didn't establish airfields within range of the Home Island until early 1945. I've said before that you are a master of tactical defensive warfare. The DEI in our game reinforced my opinion in this regard.

[LoBaron]

I also would like to say thanks for this interesting AAR to both of you!

IMO, Canorebel, your best move in the game was not the invasion of China - there
was a bit of luck involved...with an a bit more patient Miller this could have
turned into disaster instead of victory - but the CV battle described by
Miller in the DEIs early into the game which caused a severe delay of the second
wave of Japanese invasions.

On the other side Miller´s counter on the Aleuthians was an example for aggressive
defense and counter which really displays his skills in case he has to react to
a dangerous situation.

You both ran the game at a fast pace for sure which allowed for neglected tactical
and logistical opportunities, or at least decreased complexity of those. Still
the major operations were planned on an impressive scale and with a love for detail.

Great war guys, I hope someday I will reach as far into the game as you did! [&o]