Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Bullwinkle58]

I stayed up to zero-dark-thirty reading your opponent's AAR, so I won't say anything except keep the turns coming! My fingers keep drawing me back here this AM, thinking, "I know he plays at work. Maybe there's news."

Once things calm down I'll go back to reading just your side, wait a bit, and continue to offer my flashes of the blindingly obvious. Until then, this is gonna be good!!

(Wish I had one of them cool popcorn-eating applets . . .)

Edit:

PMed by a felllow forumite. It was right in front of me . . .

[Capt. Harlock]

The Allies have come out decidely on the short end of air combat, but the numbers involved aren't significant.

My two cents would be to accept that you have no real chance of hitting a Japanese CV, therefore the tactic is to attrit his carrier-based fighters. If you can find some B-17's to form the core of escorted strikes, that would be the way to go. (The have the same chance of scoring a hit as the Swordfish, i.e. infinitesimal.)

[Canoerebel]

3/7/42

The invasion of Ceylon commences:

Colombo: Shore guns do some damage to amphibious ships and escorts. The Japanese land three divisions (48th, 1st, Imperial Guards) and two tank regiments totalling something like 1300 AV to this point. The Allies have about 650 AV behind four forts, with another 80 or so AV on the way.

Trincomalee: Shore guns do some damage to Japanese shipping here, too. The Japanese land a division (didn't get the number), which may not be enough to handle 220 AV behind three forts.

Jaffa: A fifth IJA division and another tank regiment land here. The defenses are negligible, so these troops can reinforce either Trincomalee or Colombo.

Allied Reponse: At this point I'm leaning towards allowing the Trincomalee troops to remain in place rather than moving them to Colombo, but if additional Japanese troops come ashore I may change my mind. Two UK brigades are at Colombo and a third at Trincomalee. These are high quality troops providing the backbone of the defenses at each post. The rest of the troops are mainly low-experience hodge-podge. I've moved aircraft out of Colombo, mainly to Madras. After standing down my bombers this turn, I've set them to "naval attack" tomorrow in hopes that they might select as targets some of the ships damaged during the amphibious landings.

Japanese Strategy: I was surprised that Brad elected to land at the two fortified hexes (Colombo and Trincomalee) rather than concentrating at the lightly defended bases of Koggala and Jaffa. By choosing his strategy he may have pinned down my garrisons at both of the big bases, though, which will probably help him. Had I concentrated all my troops at Colombo, I'd have 1,000+ AV behind four forts. I doubt that would be enough to withstand an attack by five divisions and three tank regiments.

Analysis: Japan almost certainly has enough to take Ceylon. I want to drag things out and hope to get in a few licks - a lucky hit from a sub or bomber would be nice. If things turn really bleak I will evacuate cadres by air. I don't know if Brad is planning additional landings yet - toting five-plus divisions at a time surely taxed his shipping considerably, and he would not send another force to the coast without the KB. So, I don't think there will be a move on India proper in the short term. Long term, I think Ceylon poses a problem for Brad as we get further into the game. In order to defend it against the full might of an Allied assault that included all carriers, he would need the KB. But if the KB is here, it can't be elsewhere, leaving other places vulnerable.

[Canoerebel]

3/8/42

Ceylon on the Ground: The Japanese took a lightly defended Jaffa, giving them a port (3) and airfield (1). Brad can now send the IJA division there to reinforce his troops at Colombo and Trincomalee. At the moment, I don't think he has enough to take either base in the short term, but the extra division should tip the scales at either base, then he can move to the other. In other words, I think Brad has enough to roll up the Allies defenses and take Ceylon. But it should takes weeks, which means additional reinforcements arrive at Madras and Aden.

Ceylon at Sea: Shore guns damaged a handful of good IJ transports at Colombo and Trincomalee. Lightly damaged sub KX, on her way back to Colombo from the DEI, sank the already damaged xAP Buenos Aires Maru near Ceylon's east cape. By the time the invasion ends, I think Brad will have lost perhaps ten transports with a dozen more damaged.

Ceylon in the Air: The RAF sortied in big numbers against the main KB TF, located NW of Ceylon. The outdated aircraft got mauled by the CAP of 90 Zeros, but still managed to press home attacks against several flattops. Unfortunately, there werent' any hits. On the day, the Allies lost 43 aircraft in a-2-a. Japan lost two.

Diego/Attu: I have several Australian combat engineer units on transports nearing these two islands. I'm afraid, however, that sending them there is just sending them to a prison camp. Once Ceylon falls, Brad should be able to do whatever he wishes to even though Diego has an Indian brigade. So, do bolster the defenses a bit with valuable engineer units, or do I send those units on to Oz?

Monday Morning Quarterback: So, should I have sent the Aussie division to Ceylon rather than to Calcutta? Were it on the island Brad's invasion would be a much tighter venture for Japan. Yet, Ceylon already had a decent garrison with a British division. Meanwhile, defenses in northeast India were pretty spotty. So I think I did the right thing, but it may not have been the right thing (if that makes sense). Certainly, I was correct in sending them to India rather than to Oz (even though everything tangible was pointing to a Japanese invasion of Oz at the time).

DEI: A Japanese deliberate attack at Soerabaja drops forts to one. This base will fall next attack or the one following.

Oz: The Allies may put together an invasion force of Palm Island. It's lightly held by Japan and not close to any decent Japanese air bases (Cooktown is a level one; Port Moresby is pretty far away).

SoPac: Tanks and engineers just landed at Tahiti. The garrison is strong enough that I don't have to fear a small blitzkrieg attack. I also think Pago Pago is now pretty safe from attack. Nearly 400 AV ashore and no real chance of enemy attack any time soon.

CenPac: The Allies are prepping some units for Baker Island, but I need more infantry reinforcements to arrive before I could commit to such an operation. Not sure I want to venture that far forward, yet, but I want to have things in place just in case.

NoPac: Support units (AA and artillery) are moving forward to Adak Island and Dutch Harbor.

[Cribtop]

I think you did the right thing. Ceylon is a dead end for Japan unless he's really feeling his oats and going for mainland India. You protected the more strategically vital target, IMHO, at Calcutta. Japan now has a choice between defending an outpost that will be a millstone for KB or just using the island as a delaying tactic, in which case you can refuse to take the bait, make it into a prison camp, and just invade Burma anyway when you're ready. If he fights for Ceylon, it presents a chance for a favorable CV engagement for the Allies later on, with his bases smashed by 4Es and while your fleet operates under LBA cover.

[Canoerebel]

3/9/42

Ceylon on the Ground: The Japanese are advancing out of Jaffa - probably a division that will reinforce the attack at either Colombo or Trincomalee. Brad hasn't even tried a probing assault at either of the two big bases yet; he probably doesn't have enough yet. Meanwhile, Allied transport aircraft are beginning to lift out tiny parts of non-combat troops to make sure I have cadres to rebuild.

Ceylon in the Air: Quiet this turn - no attacks by either side. Allied bombers are tasked to hit Jaffa's airfield tomorrow.

Ceylon at Sea: Many of the TFs have departed the immediate vicinity, including one that is moving quickly towards Diego Garcia. I have three TFs toating Aussie engineers in close proximity, so I'm sending them to Capetown post haste. They are right at map's edge, so I don't think they are at risk.

DEI: Another Japanese attack on Soerabaja. This one at 1:2 with disproportionate losses for the Allies. This base will fall in days.

Allied Priorities: I don't have any unrestricted ground troops on the West Coast at the moment, so I am limited to transporting engineers and AA units and the like to advance bases. As soon as I get unrestricted reinforcements or enough PP to buy some units, these are my priorities: (1) garrison Attu Island; (2) beef up Pago Pago a bit and detail engineers and a base force for nearby Savaii; (3) send engineers to an island between Christmas and Pago Pago; and (4) reinforce Suva and Nadi. The first three should be accomplished within a month. The last is probably two months away.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oz: The Allies may put together an invasion force of Palm Island. It's lightly held by Japan and not close to any decent Japanese air bases (Cooktown is a level one; Port Moresby is pretty far away).

I'm reading both AARs for now, so I won't say anything about India. Except that both of you will really enjoy reading the other's posts some day.[:)]

On the above, and at the risk of sounding like Nemo, why do this? Because you can? If you take Palm you have to supply it. If he keeps it he does. (Or not, and then you can knock it off in 1943 with a squad of waterboys.)

Does Palm fit into your strategic plan? (Asks Nemo-lite.) Or do you just want to do something, anything, to bloody him up? You've faced having a rough, maybe even unfair, cross-ex of your client. Did it make you mad, or did it make you think? All of the good lawyers I've known don't get mad in court. It's just business. I'm just sayin' . . .

Look deep, Skywalker-san. Make sure you REALLY understand what's happening on the map overall.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not sure I'll undertake an operation at Palm Island, but doing so would be worthwhile. It knocks out the most southerly Japanese seaplane base - a base that can service patrol aircraft that can sniff very, very far south. Secondly, the operation would be at nearly no risk, near as I can tell. No enemy airfields close by. No KB.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure I'll undertake an operation at Palm Island, but doing so would be worthwhile. It knocks out the most southerly Japanese seaplane base - a base that can service patrol aircraft that can sniff very, very far south. Secondly, the operation would be at nearly no risk, near as I can tell. No enemy airfields close by. No KB.

I didn't realize he had seaplanes there. As Emily Latella would say, "Never mind."

[Canoerebel]

3/10/42

Brad is about to leave town for vacation, so maybe one more turn today; then nothing until Tuesday or later.

Ceylon: Allied LBA do a comparatively decent job of targeting Jaffa's airfield. Some hits are scored causing rougly 20% damage at a cost of 42 aircraft to 7 for Japan (a few turns ago I lost 43 to 2, so it IS an improvement of sorts). Brad is landing all his support units at Jaffa. I think it's going to take him awhile to roll up Ceylon, which suits me just fine.

What's Next for Japan: I think Cribtop is dead-on. Ceylon is a millstone if Brad doesn't use it for something more. There are three possible uses, in my opinion: (1) As a base to prevent reinforcements going to Australia as he concentrates there [unlikely, but I'll keep my eyes open]; (2) as a springboard for an attack into NE India [the conventional course of action, but the one I'm best prepared for]; or (3) as a springboard for a decidedly unconventional attack on south or west India. In addition to stout garrisons at Chittagong and Calcutta, the Allies have 500 AV at Madras, 150 at Bangalore, and lesser numbers at Bombay, Karachi and other bases. But reinforcements are 21 days away - an Indian divsion at Madras and about 430 British AV at Aden. P.S. About four turns ago I set all the Australian units at Calcutta to "Strategic" so that they can act as my mobile reserve - I can shift them south or west in an emergency.

Allied Carriers: I do NOT want to use the Allied carriers. I will only do so in the most dire circumstances like the threat of a total enemy conquest of India. But I think it will be another 30 to 45 days before I can finish swapping out Wildcats for Buffalo and SBD-3 for Biplane Helldivers. So, at a the very, very, very soonest, I cannot seen sortying my carriers until mid-April. As stated, though, I prefer not to even then. I really like the force-in-being concept and how I can make it work for the Allies.

[vettim89]

I too am reading both AAR's so will be very careful as to what I say. Regardless of where Q-Ball goes next, my advice to you is to be patient. He has brought a lot of firepower here that needs to be resepcted. Just like your Fleet in Being, his Army in Being now has to be accounted for as you plan ahead. I join the chorus of don't do something just to say you are doing something.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, guys.

I don't have any intention of sticking my nose out anywhere. No bold invasion in the Pacific, no advances in Oz. No pushing reinforcements forward in India. No carrier or combat ship sorties.

My main focus is on the proper handling of reinforcements both in India and the Pacific to strengthen my current holdings. The only nibblings I'm considering - not planning, but rather just keeping in the back of my mind - are an invasion of Palm Island at Townsville and possibly an invasion of Baker Island. The latter would be a long time from now.

[Cribtop]

I concur - my reference to a favorable CV battle was assumed to occur in a year or so.

[crsutton]

I held my tongue as I was reading both AARs but can comment now. You will lose Celyon and it will not be the end of the world. I think in scen#2 the Allied player has to focus on preserving forces. That said, I looked hard at Celyon and decided that I could not defend Celyon and India both. The Indian army and British airforce was just too impotent at this stage. So, I pulled all out of Celyon in the first few months but some skeleton units. I figured that if he came for India then he could have Celyon I was not ready to lose that fine British division. I also sent the entire Australian 1 corps to India. I did not split them up.

Turns out he hit Australia instead and after a month or two I just reoccupied Celyon and started shifting units to OZ. It was an India first policy as there is so much more production to lose in India vs OZ.

What you are doing is fine. The only problem is the British division. Even if you pull cadres out it will just take forever to rebuild this division. British squads and devices just trickle in. I might lose an Indian division as the Indian army has the best squad replacment rate of all the non Chinese armies but the Brits just take forever to accumulate a couple of hundred squads.

Still, you are losing some units and buying time. Not a bad way to go.

[desicat]

In previous games you have planned your advances well (way) in advance having moved through the Kuriles, Borneo/Java, and SE China.  You have always stated that you start your planning for your main line of attack 6-8 months in advance to ensure supplies and ground forces are prepped and moved into position for overlapping advances.  Do you have a line of advance in mind already or will you allow events to dictate planning? 

[Canoerebel]

Now that's a question I can sink my teeth into!

Yes, I have a long-range plan. In fact, this plan has been in effect since December 7, 1941. If you refer back to my earliest posts, you'll see references to it.

I haven't detailed the plan in order for security purposes. The plan won't be implemented until sometime in 1943, but I don't want to take a chance on a security breach.

The Allies get one chance to surprise and overwhelm the enemy at some point mid-war. The plan has to be well implemented, because once the Allies commit to a major axis of advance, the enemy can begin countermoves. The advance will therefore eventually slow down, so the more surprise and the more overwhelmng the early advantage, the better. Also, the place chosen needs to be proximate to vital enemy areas.

I am already doing little things that will help me implement this plan. LIttle things like where I position spare transports and where I position incoming reinforcements. A more important step is to limit the losses to transports. The Allies get 26 zillion, so I've been rather careless with them in previous games, but I'm going to need 25 zillion to do the things I plan to do.

The Allies can usually achieve operational surprise and overwhelm the enemy at any one point in their breakout offensive of 1943. Following up on the initial success is much more difficult if the Allies don't have carrier parity or superiority. So an important item on my list of things to do is to avoid losing my carriers.

I think I can use to my advantage any advance made by the enemy. The only ground that I don't want to concede is India, southeastern Oz, and Hawaii. Anything else can be put to use later as part of diversion efforts. So incursions against New Zealand or the Aleutians or segments of Oz or India aren't cause for alarm.

[Bullwinkle58]

First: I don't know what your opponent is planning to do in the region. How long he'll stay in the India theater, how deeply he'll commit, etc.

But, all of the talk seems to be, so far, about Indian, British, and Aussie LCUs, and aircraft. The thing I'm interested in seeing is how the loss of Ceylon (I agree, it's a goner in the short run) will influence the huge off-map usefulness of Aden and Abadan. Without them Indian supply production is very strained.

With Ceylon, he can whack that northern/western part of the IO without risking the KB. He can put a LOT of Betties on Ceylon. He has a lot of I-boats, and their fish work in 1942. He has all the safe fuel he needs from Sabang and Palembang, and so can put lots of surface forces into Ceylon to raid the exit chutes. ( He can also raid the exit chutes on the CT/Perth run, especially if he grabs and holds Diego G. and can Naval Search from there.) If Abadan is at bay, fuel to any operational sub-region has to come from either CT (much farther) or CONUS, impossibly far. The loss of Ceylon means the loss of the best shipyard in the region; CT is also very far away. Aden can take a bit, but not many hulls.

If Aden and Abadan are removed from Allied equations, the supply production situation in India is not great over the 1-year horizon. CR has pulled the Royal Navy somewhere, and it has the early carriers, and some old BBs, plus a decent cruiser force, but unless at least some of the USN carriers are invested I think the IJN has the upper-hand in the IO for the next year. (Many of the early RN heavies have to withdraw as well.) And that's a long time for a land war in India/Burma to unfold where the Japanese have supplies and fuel pulling forward from secure rear areas.

VPs matter, yes, but let's not kid ourselves. Ceylon is a huge, bleeding loss.

[Smeulders]

Some interesting observations, but I think you paint a far bleaker picture then necessary.

First off, supply production in India is good, I'm running India at a surplus of about 2000 a turn. That might not be enough if there is a lot of combat on the subcontinent, but it's not at all critical or even a problem if it's fairly calm.

Second, it is still possible to run supply into India. The run from the off-map bases into Karachi is a very short, even large ships don't need to be on map for much more than 5 or 6 days to run into Karachi, unload and back out again if there is enough Nav Sup in Karachi. On top of that, this complete route is more than far enough away from Ceylon airbases, so LBA is no threat. Surface ships can disrupt the run, but must venture close to Karachi, where torpedo bombers are a large threat. On top of that, the RN can concentrate to defend the short stretch when needed to run in convoys. So surface ships to close down this route will become a very costly affair. KB probably won't be used for this, stationing it at Ceylon to raid the occasional India bound convoy is a huge waste, mini-KB or at least a part of it might be used for this though. The problem with a lack of shipyards is interesting though, because even though the RN can fight the IJN on the surface, the IJN will have a good nearby shipyard, while the RN does not. The only option is sneaking to the Aden and then the route near the African coast to CT, but there is no guarantee of safety there. The run from CT to India would be effectively cut though.

Finally, keeping a large naval presence at Ceylon at using it to disrupt the sea-lanes will cost the IJN a lot of fuel. A couple of CLs won't do the job and keeping CA and BB on patrol burns fuel and even though sources are close at hand, they are limited and needed for the industry as well. This is not to say they can't, but I wouldn't expect a constant presence either.

All in all, I do think that a Japanese Ceylon complicates matters, but it's impact on India shouldn't be overestimated either.

As to your point that Ceylon will help in raiding the chutes for the CT-Perth run, I'm not quite sure I get that, it's miles and miles away, Diego Garcia isn't anywhere near search range.

[witpqs]

One thing to take note of is that the 'holding boxes' where ships reside before they come on map is not where they actually enter the map. Ships bound for Karachi enter at the corner near Karachi - two days transit to Karachi from there, one day for some ships. Likewise ships from Cape Town to Perth enter the map right opposite Perth and move straight over.

Importantly for confounding raids, you can alter these entry points by using a sea hex as a destination and setting the ultimate destination as 'home port'.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

Some interesting observations, but I think you paint a far bleaker picture then necessary.

First off, supply production in India is good, I'm running India at a surplus of about 2000 a turn. That might not be enough if there is a lot of combat on the subcontinent, but it's not at all critical or even a problem if it's fairly calm.

Second, it is still possible to run supply into India. The run from the off-map bases into Karachi is a very short, even large ships don't need to be on map for much more than 5 or 6 days to run into Karachi, unload and back out again if there is enough Nav Sup in Karachi. On top of that, this complete route is more than far enough away from Ceylon airbases, so LBA is no threat. Surface ships can disrupt the run, but must venture close to Karachi, where torpedo bombers are a large threat. On top of that, the RN can concentrate to defend the short stretch when needed to run in convoys. So surface ships to close down this route will become a very costly affair. KB probably won't be used for this, stationing it at Ceylon to raid the occasional India bound convoy is a huge waste, mini-KB or at least a part of it might be used for this though. The problem with a lack of shipyards is interesting though, because even though the RN can fight the IJN on the surface, the IJN will have a good nearby shipyard, while the RN does not. The only option is sneaking to the Aden and then the route near the African coast to CT, but there is no guarantee of safety there. The run from CT to India would be effectively cut though.

Finally, keeping a large naval presence at Ceylon at using it to disrupt the sea-lanes will cost the IJN a lot of fuel. A couple of CLs won't do the job and keeping CA and BB on patrol burns fuel and even though sources are close at hand, they are limited and needed for the industry as well. This is not to say they can't, but I wouldn't expect a constant presence either.

All in all, I do think that a Japanese Ceylon complicates matters, but it's impact on India shouldn't be overestimated either.

As to your point that Ceylon will help in raiding the chutes for the CT-Perth run, I'm not quite sure I get that, it's miles and miles away, Diego Garcia isn't anywhere near search range.

I'm no production expert, as I've never played the Japanese, but isn't supply production dependant on fuel? Through the LI mechanism? I looked in Tracker, and India has only two very small Oil sources at Ledo and Rawlipindi (sp?), and refineries at each. Production depends on fuel from Abadan and Aden, but really Abadan.

The trip from off-map to Karachi is short, yes, but that works both ways. Q only has to interdict a small, known lane. Subs work for that. CR has few ASW assets now, and those he has are at best ASW 8. Most are less. And he won't have a ton of air ASW help from Karachi.

Then the fuel has to be moved, right? Does LI production fuel flow by iteself, or does it have to be carted to the big industry centers, like Bombay? If the latter, more sea time, more exposure. Note too that all of the fuel he can haul in has to self-fund any short-legged xAKs or tankers getting back to Abadan, as well as the RN fleet, wherever he stashes it, plus ASW ops.

Third, yes, you can run already-made supplies into India, but from where? Aden makes 500/day. Abadan has some. The CD convoys bring a bit, but mostly to CT. Aden isn't open to the Med for a year more. He can try to run the blockade from CT, but again, LOTS of fuel if he goes extremely north, and he has to run the sub gauntlet. He'll lose ships. He says he's wanting to save a lot of hulls for the 1943-44 "secret push", but he may lose a lot now.

Fourth, I'm no hex-counter, but Betties can reach pretty far up there if he needs to distribute fuel and supplies by sea quickly. And Q can also stash a few CVLs at Ceylon to raid with.

Fifth, I think Q WANTS him to try to use the RN to make a stand. The RN ships in theater are mostly old buckets, except the carriers. CR won't have decent LBA help for months. Q might seek a decisive meeting action with the KB before he makes his next big move on land. I would. Take away the RN, stock Colombo up with big, modern IJN CAs, and Q has a six month window, at least, to run rampant through merchant operations.

Sixth, the shipyard issue is, as you agree, very important. One bad break in a decent-sized battle, and CR is off to CT. Two months of transit time alone. Colombo can fix almost anything the Japanese have.

Seventh, I don't think fuel is the limiting factor for Q. He can't stay for three years, but Sabang is a very short cycle time to Colombo, and it leaves the really major refinery centers for HI use. He's committed a huge portion of his land forces to this effort. He can't let them wither due to fuel to the HI to build HI stocks for the end game.

Eighth, my understanding of the CT-Perth exit chutes are that there is some variation. Q can use subs to make this complicated. I'm not saying they'll get much, but it would make CR micro-manage CT traffic, and he hates that.[:)] (CR: how do you like being talked about while you're standing there?[:)])

DG may be too far north to find CT-Perth traffic; I'll take your word for it. But it would be instrumental in zeroing in on CT to Karachi traffic for supplies, once Aden--Abadan becomes hot. Q just needs to keep several DD-CL flying wedge TFs on a circle patrol in the IO midst, waiting to be vectored by DG search. It would be a coordination nightmare, but there's space to play with.

Final thought--if India is starving for supplies, there's absolutely NONE to spare for airlift to China. The Chinese theater is on its own for now.

I think Ceylon can be "gotten by", but it's a Stage Two cancer diagnosis. It's not a flesh wound. It changes the entire game flow for the rest of 1942 at minimum. CR is not in the driver's seat. He's in react mode for now.