Illinois Yankee in the Showa Emperor's Court (Q-Ball v Canoe)

[bklooste]

India only needs to be fully garrisoned if he wins and defeats the british .. If the brittish are defeated losing 32% IMHO would be acceptable  considering the normal effort you need in Burma  in AE not RL  , the real risk would be if India is abandoned...  With the british relocating to Australia . I suppose the figure empahsizes that the goal of India cannot be territory but  it must be destruction of the brittish army.
 
Also what major advance does Japan normally do in late 42 ?  
 
In all likelyhood  some of the bigger garrison areas wont fall for  a long time.
 
 

[ckammp]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

I have been looking at garrison requirements and whilst I expect Q-Ball has already undertaken this exercise, some of the readers of this AAR might not be aware of the ramifications. The garrison requirements are derived from the “stickied” planning map which is scenario 1 data, but AFAIK, there is no change to garrison requirements in scenario 2. The Imperial force data comes from the scenario 2 at start unrestricted command hierarchy and therefore does not fully account for the purchased units (2 divs, 2 tank regts, 1 bde, 1 regt plus an Air HQ).

Aggregate Japanese AV Garrison Requirements

Australia 1040
Burma 160
Canada 300
Ceylon 80
DEI 160
Hawaii 80
India 3380
Malaya 100
New Zealand 260
Philippines 340
Soviet Union 720
USA (continental) 1140

Unrestricted Japanese AV Forces

Command, At 7 December 41, Additional Received by 1 April 42
14th Army, 1164, 240
15th Army, 694, 0
16th Army, 1015, 0
21st Army, 0, 1694
25th Army, 1847, 0
Southern Army, 1440, 31
4th Fleet, 434, 724
Southeast Asia Fleet, 152, 287
Combined Fleet, 803, 68

Two observations immediately strike me.

(1) India and Ceylon combined account for 44.58% of all theoretical maximum garrison requirements.
(2) By 1 April 1942, the total unrestricted Japanese AV (excluding any purchased units and assuming campaign losses have been fully replenished) is 10,613. Thus, to fully garrison all of India and Ceylon immobilises 32.6% of the unrestricted AV. When you add in the garrison requirements for the already/soon to be conquered SRA (Burma, DEI, Malaya, Philippines), the immobilised garrison figure jumps to 39.76%. Further reducing the available field army is the need to maintain forces at key bases elsewhere.

Ramifications

The inevitable conclusion is that a successful conquest of India will, with one exception, destroy Japan’s capability to launch any significant land offensive. The exception is the use of the Manchukuo units against the Soviet Union.

By paying PPs, Q-Ball could release restricted units to march across borders to replace his immobilised unrestricted garrison units. This however would take a lot of time and in the intervening period the Allied position elsewhere should have been stabilised and able to defeat any Japanese offensive.

Japan is also going to be vulnerable to mid 1942 Allied offensives because Japan will not have mobile reserves. Basically, Japan will need to garrison India with the equivalent of the entire 14th, 15th, 16th Armies and Southeast Asia Fleet. Plus half of Southern Army would be required for the rest of the SRA.

Alfred

PS: My formatting has gone askance. Hopefully the two intended tables above make sense.

What about the China garrison requirements?

Also, if the Japanese player is able to take all of India, he will most likely win an auto-victory, in which case garrison requirements won't matter.

[Capt. Harlock]

Australia: No idea if I sold this as an objective; hopefully I did. I probably won't know for sure until this game is over.

This has been one of the fun parts of reading both sides of the AAR. I think you'll enjoy reading Canoerebel's comments after the game.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

Australia: No idea if I sold this as an objective; hopefully I did. I probably won't know for sure until this game is over.

This has been one of the fun parts of reading both sides of the AAR. I think you'll enjoy reading Canoerebel's comments after the game.

Yeah, I'm sure YOU guys have an idea if he bought Australia or not...don't tell me. I might ask Dan pretty soon via e-mail anyway, as it's probably becoming obvious India is the target.

One thing I like about taking Ceylon, is that it will be very hazardous, or lengthy, to send troops from Australia to India at this point.

Combat Report, Mar 6, 1942:

Sorry to leave everyone hanging, yesterday was a very busy day for me IRL! Dan was anxious too, no turns in his in-box. You're wondering: So, how did it go?

Overall, it went OK; I dispersed my forces, which is good and bad. Had I landed all these forces on Colombo, it might have still been touch and go; the way I did it, I pretty much guaranteed that I would get ashore, and also guaranteed that one or two landings will get stuck. That's pretty much the result, as Jaffna figures to fall easily, while the main landings wait for the cavalry to relieve them.


COLOMBO: This base was much more heavily garrisoned than I anticipated. There are 3 Indian Bdes (100,44,45), plus 2 British Bdes, and 251 Recce Bn. The 18th UK Division, basically, is on Ceylon. I estimate the AV here to be about 500 or so, no doubt behind forts.

I have 3 divisions here: The 1st, 38th, and Imperial Gds, plus an Army HQ, 2 Tank Regts, and 1 Eng Regt. Probably not enough, though he can't really evacuate or move anyone either without jeopardizing the defense.

I will try a couple attacks anyway, but I think I am stuck here.

TRINCOMALEE: Here I face 1 British Bde from the 18th UK, plus a pile of Malayan refugee units that are probably pretty weak; 2 Ind Bdes, 22nd Aus Bde, a couple Bns. I have only one Infantry Division here, so probably not enough to dislodge on the rough terrain. Again, though, he probably can't move these guys either much.

JAFFNA: Here I landed the 18th Inf Div and a Tank unit; the garrison is only a single Indian Inf Bn. This will fall tommorow, and I have sent all follow-on convoys to Jaffna, to build the airstrip up, and unload more ground troops.

The troops I unload can join either Colombo or Trincomalee attacks from the rear, whichever it looks like I am closest.

How quickly I can take Ceylon partially depends on evacuations; I am resigned to the fact that Dan can evacuate fragments from every unit; I hope to get all the heavy equipment and alot of the UK Inf Squads, because the British are very short of both.

Assessment: was three dispersed landings the way to go? It was a risky strategy; I did that because I had no intel on what was on Ceylon, and no real way to gather intel without alerting Dan. So regardless, I had to find a piece of dry land to set up a base. I had another convoy headed to Koggla if Jaffna didn't work, but I figured he couldn't garrison EVERYTHING.

So far I have lost 1 AK to CD guns, and a couple more are in danger; the Katori CLs are a bit banged up and may or may not survive another day of CD duels, but that's what those ships are for. They aren't very useful once the "Happy Times" are over.

At this point, I need to set up the base at Jaffna, and use it to replenish the IJN and keep up a bombardment schedule on Colombo and Trincomalee. Shutting down those airstrips should help in terms of capturing more troops, because I know he has alot of transport units, but not a ton of flying boats.

Carriers: I am assuming Dan will not try to attack with surface units only; he would be doing me a great favor doing that.

The longer I loiter around, though, without LBA, the more nervous I get. Most transports will finish unloads tommorow, so we can at least send them on their way, screened by a line of picket ships. I plan to break up the returnees into smaller convoys and send different routes, so if CVs appear I'll only lose a few empties.

Soerbaya: We are attacking tommorow

Elsewhere: Not much; Katherine Fell, it seems the Aussies are falling back on Tennant Creek or beyond. We will chase them as far as they will run.

I am unloading 2 Garrison Bdes at Luzon; they are going to releive the 4th Division, which is already prepping for Calcutta.

[Capt. Harlock]

...don't tell me

I wasn't planning to.[:D]
The one problem I see is that with the KB dispersed and performing picket duty, the British will have air superiority, at least until you can get Jaffna up and running, and maybe even longer than that. Do you have enough supplies for a quick campaign, or will more convoys be necessary?

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
The allies will then be strongly suspecting India as your target. Their intel is just too good. They'll know about the prep on a lot of units.

I tried countering this by ordering many units in Manchukuo I didn't intend to actually use in early 1942, to prepare for different targets across the map. Don't know yet if this was at all effective.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
The one problem I see is that with the KB dispersed and performing picket duty, the British will have air superiority, at least until you can get Jaffna up and running, and maybe even longer than that. Do you have enough supplies for a quick campaign, or will more convoys be necessary?

I have 2 Convoys about to unload at Jaffna, both with Base Forces, and over 30K supply each. I also have 4 supply ships offshore, with another 20K in reserve. A large Convoy from Japan is heading toward Singapore with another 100K in supplies. So, I think I'm good on supplies.

FATR: I did the same thing, to a point; I prepped the best divisions for multiple targets at once, and "bought" the one that fit the target, if that makes sense.

Combat Report, Mar 8, 1942:

CEYLON: We have finished unloading at both Trincomalee and Colombo; I lost 4 more transports and an AMC in the unloading, so the CD guns are starting to get hot. I don't yet plan an attack, but the Allies are pinned at those two locations. If they move from either, or start evacuating, I will attack.

JAFFNA fell instantly; 2 Convoys with Base Forces start to unload tommorow, to expand the strip and get some aircover up. I already moved a crack Zero Hikotai to provide aircover for tommorow.

I bombarded Colombo and Trincomalee via CA and BB overnight; the bombardment didn't do alot of damage, and the 6in guns got in some licks. The Damage was minor, but a couple CAs will need a little yard time, so I don't think we'll be trying that again.

The RAF launched fairly large air attacks today, from Madras and Ceylon. 9 Bombers did start a bombing run on KB, which was nerve racking, but the RAF paid heavily, with over 60 aircraft shot down, including another 30-ish Hurricanes and 25 or so Flying Tigers. Dan will probably try another attack to get some stray shipping, but his air attacks so far have been a slaughter.

I am sending many empties home now to get them out of harm's way, and begin loading a couple units for Chittagong.

Soerbaya: Attack was 1-1, dropped the forts to 1, and caused more Allied than Japanese casualties. The airbase is a wreck, so the Allies can't really repair the forts. This base should fall the next attack, in about 3-4 days.

Next Steps: I am moving another 600 AV or so to Ceylon to finish it off; I would like to get a toehold on India proper before the month is out, and I lose the invasion bonus. Although starting an India invasion in April/May is a bit risk, and late, I can rest assured that at least the UK 18th Div will be expended on Ceylon, along with alot of the RAF.

[vettim89]

Well executed. I think you will be in a very good position to dictate the course of teh war on this side of the map for some time. Even if something comes up and you suffer more casualties than expected on Ceylon, you will still hold a vital strategic point that will allow you to control the BoB. In my mind, everything else from this point on is gravy

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, Mar 10-11, 1942:

I am heading out for a long weekend away from the computer and in the woods, so last update before then. Use the time to give your two yen on the next move.....Chittagoing, anyone?

Ceylon: We should reach Domulla, in the center of Ceylon, in 3 more days, where we will set up another airbase. I am planning to send immediately reinforcements to Trincomalee first to clear that base, then everyone will pile on Colombo. I have two more divisions in transit, plus other forces.

We unloaded a pile of support troops at Jaffna (see below). We have more than enough supplies, so many that I'm holding more supply convoys; I don't want the stuff to rot. I have lost about 10 transports on the landings, but otherwise, the empties are heading back to Singapore.

The RAF attacked Jaffna yesterday, in an effort to shut the place down, or at least make it take longer to build. We shot down over 45 RAF planes for a loss of 6 Zeros. I know from playing the Allies that the RAF lacks bomber replacements, so shooting down 33 bombers really helps. The RAF does get more Hurris.

KB is still hanging around; I don't expect CVs once I have Jaffna up to size-2, and I don't want to waste planes bombing land targets. I need a purpose for this strategic asset, and sitting off the coast of India isn't a good one. At the moment, the RAF has nothing that can harm KB. I do have to keep it moving to watch for subs.

Soerbaya: I attacked again too soon; 1-2, though we did kill more Allies than Japanese. I will fully rest and try again; that should do it.

CIAO till Monday!

[Mynok]

Why Chittagong? Why not south India? Surely all his Burma refugees are in eastern India, while south India looks ripe for the picking.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Mynok


Why Chittagong? Why not south India? Surely all his Burma refugees are in eastern India, while south India looks ripe for the picking.

Back from long weekend out, and thinking strategy:
This is a good question. And in fact, speaks to the "what next" after Ceylon.

First, what do I accomplish with JUST Ceylon? In the short-term, I destroy several allied units (or at least the combat capability of those units, assuming Dan lifts out cadres. I have a major base athwart the supply line between India and Australia. I can't really use the shipyard, though, as long as the Allies occupy Madras.

In the longer-term, Ceylon is impossible to defend. The best I can do it use it to attrite the Allies Air through 1942, then maybe it's a speedbump after that. But committing significant forces there would be a mistake, because it could just be bypassed.

So, a landing on India is a must-do follow-on. But where?

I have troops prepped for Diamond Harbor and Chittagong, and other troops prepped for Calcutta, but nothing else. I have 6 divisions on Ceylon, however, that will be free to prep for whatever, once I have that operation complete. So, here is the plan:

1. Load up 3-4 divisions that are prepped for NE India and land them there, at Chittagong and Diamond Harbor. I will do that as soon as the Ceylon empties return to Singapore. I estimate a landing approx. April 15.
2. By April 15th, I should have Ceylon cleared; divert all the transports I just used to Ceylon, and prep those units for targets around BOMBAY. Yes, BOMBAY. I need to research the right landing points, but if I am invading NE India, I expect them to be lightly defended.
3. How will the Allies react? Either:
A) The NE India landing will mean the Allied troops pile into NE India.
B) Once I land at Bombay, they will probably pile OUT of NE India.

I still, in the end, don't think I have enough to clear all of India; it's a daunting task in AE, and against a competent opponent, I think pretty much impossible. But we will see how far we push it.

Combat Report, March 12, 1942:

CEYLON: 1 Regt and a Tank Regt unloaded at a lightly defended Koggla; they should take the base tommorow. The troops there are already moving elsewhere. Mostly I am taking this, so the units at Trincomalee and Colombo don't retreat to Koggla, but surrender instead.

A Tank Regt reached Domulla, and should clear it tommorow. 2 more Regts are headed for Jaffna, and will unload shortly, giving me probably enough to push over Trincomalee. At this point, I can probably attack Colombo, as Dan will start pulling fragments, if he hasn't already.

The 18th UK Division will take forever to rebuild anyway.

Air Attacks: The RAF attacked Jaffna again; this time there were fewer planes, since we shot down a bunch the other day. 20 RAF planes did not return, mostly Blenheims. The damage to Jaffna was minimal; it's 28% to Level 2. I lost 2 Zeros to OPS losses.

The Fleet: I have a TF of BBs that is replenishing magazines at Port Blair. Part of KB is going to risk a refuel-torpedo restock at Jaffna, where I have AOs and AKEs docked.

Still no sign of the Allied Fleet; I have no idea where anyone is. Dan might be moving USN CVs to this part of the world now, or he might be planning a counter-operation elsewhere.

Defending the Perimeter: So, what can Dan do while I am engaged at Ceylon?

First, he has to prep units prior to landing, so it would be at least May 1 before I would see a diversionary landing elsewhere IMO.

Where would he go? The candidates:

1. KURILES: I feel OK here; I am building Shikuka and Para Jima. I don't have much in the way of ground troops, but a landing here triggers a pile of new units in the Home Islands. If Dan lands here, I would consider it an opportunity.
2. MARSHALLS: I don't have the troops to really defend all of the Marshalls, just a handful of Nav Gd. That will have to do, that and the Betty base at Kwaj; I am counting on NETTY/ZERO to keep the Allies honest.
3. SOLOMONS: We can't really stop an Allied landing here. I have Air HQ at Port Moresby and soon at Rabaul, so New Guinea is relatively safe via Air Fleets, but the lower Solomons are pretty much defenseless on the ground.

I do have a strong Fleet at Rabaul, centered around the 2 NAGATOS, and a collection of cruisers. At this point, the Allies don't have an answer for the NAGATOS, so I would initially rely on surface forces here to repel the Allies.

4. DEI: I have pretty good coverage via air in this area, and alot of troops flowing through Singapore.

In the long-run, I consider SUMATRA to be the #1 danger zone. A landing there would close the Malacca Strait and be a total disaster, stranding all my troops in India. For this reason, Sumatra will receive Priority #1 in terms of defenses. It also happens to be where all the OIL is anyway.

Defensive Resources: I hate thinking defensively right now, but I have to watch my rear and have a plan. What is back there in case I run into trouble?

4th FLEET at RABAUL: 2 BBs, 6 CAs, 4 CLs, and supporting DDs.
22nd and 23rd Air Flotillas: 4 x Betty Units (Truk and Rabaul), plus 2 x Zero and 2 x Oscar (which can escort Betties). I also have some IJA Bombers assets.
IJA RESERVES: My ground reserves outside of the SRA consist of 2 x Regts, 1 Tank Regt, and about 2-3 Nav Gd units. Pretty thin, in other words. They are all at Truk, with sufficient transport to lift them to trouble.

Once I am established on Ceylon, I will have freedom of action with the rest of the fleet. Right now I am tethered to protecting transports, but once Jaffna supports torp-carrying Betties, I can breath more easily.

[veji1]

isn't the risk of doing a two divided invasions that he manages to stall you in one place while he crushes you in the other ? and by that date most of the Burma army is probably back in India, or almost there anyway.... If i were you I would try to steamroll him in one area of your choice with your 10 divs stack... His airforce isn't much of a danger at this stage if your fleets stay together. If I were you I would land as many forces as possible in one of the ports west of Calcutta and go from there, but dividing your troops is a recipe for disaster I fear.

[JohnDillworth]

10 divisions in India is formidable. If the 18th British is reduced at Ceylon the only other high quality stuff the allies have is the Australian divisions. If all of them are in India they can make problems but 10 Japanese divisions is something the Allies can not stand up to right now. Particularly if reinforcements become restricted at Aden. The sheer size of India make it hard to cover everything but if you were just to roll around India destroying stuff CR is going to have a very tough time stopping you.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

India is huge and I fear 10 Divisions are not enough. Maybe for initial landings.But one brings reinforcments soon or it will be a stall very quick.

[veji1]

10 divs is a big hammer, if the blow is efficiently dealt, you can inflict great distress at the beginning, but once the defense solidifies, having retreated and reorganised, it gets a lot more difficult... What is the goal here ? from a strategic point of view I see 2 objectives :
- Destroy troops (for points and to hinder the british capability to counterattack in Burma early)
- Provide a buffer for Burma and the DEI for at least 1943, which means controlling one way or the other east india and the Bay of Bengal.

How do you achieve this is the question... I don't think you can do that by going for Bombay and Chittagong... one of your attacks is bound to get bogged down and with the distance separating them, they can't support each other... If you went for two places you would have to go for a dominant axis, with say 8 or 9 divs, and a small one acting as a diversion.

If I was your opponent I would have garrisoned heavily Chittagong and Diamond Harbour (and/or Calcutta) in the east and have Karachi well covered as well, the rest of the forces would be in a position to move quickly to a threatened area or out the way..

How many troops can you estimate he has in India (starting troops + reinforcements historically sent to Singapore or Burma + Burma army) and where do you think he would put it ?

These are the key questions. Put yourself in his shoes before deciding on your offensive.

[Q-Ball]

RE: Divided Forces; a landing of 5 divisions each at Bombay or NE India, he does not have the strength to crush it. He has 2-4 divisions of decent quality (the Burma refugees, 2 Aussie Divisions, and 1 Indian Div), and more divisions that are not combat capable at the moment (all the new Indian Divisions are VERY low morale and capability; in fact, the best Indian Bdes are ALSO on Ceylon). So, he does not have the strength to beat me down at the moment.

Combat Report, Mar 12, 1942:

Koggla: This base falls instantly to attack; the defenders, about 1500-2000 infantry, surrender.

The Regt. that landed here is now moving to Colombo

Domulla: This base also falls; the Indian Inf Bn, plus two small base forces, surrender. These forces are moving on Trincomalee.

I am surprised those units all surrendered instead of retreating. It's not a big deal, except that Dan may now decide Ceylon won't hold and start pulling troops. To watch this, I am LRCAP-ing both main bases, and will start to attack if he is withdrawing via air, which I would bet he is.

Strange Report: My Intel Screen reported 9 Hurri A2A losses, yet I had no air combat this turn. I hope that's not a sync bug. I have asked Dan what he sees. I may be they were on the ground at Domulla or something when it fell.

Allied Fleet: The I-124 spotted an Allied BB, plus a strong escort, at Karachi, where she was laying mines. This is probably the Royal Navy.

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, Mar 13-15, 1942:

A quiet couple days, though several things are brewing on the horizon.....

Ceylon: Reinforcements have reached Trincomallee, and we begin attacking tommorow. Jaffna is now size-2, so we can also support bombers there now.

It will probably take until the end of March at least to clear Ceylon, but we are in process for sure.

Chittagong: We are beginning to plan a landing at Chittagong, to start the NE India campaign.

I have 1 1/2 divisions already prepped. Though this is not enough to take NE India, it is enough to gain a foothold, to be kicked wide-open by reinforcements from Ceylon and Java.

KB: I am no longer tethered to Ceylon, so I am moving KB up the coast to at least threaten Karachi, and maybe delay reinforcements. According to my excellent Kempetai Intelligence (and my ability to load up the Allied side), the 2nd UK Division appears shortly at Aden, and no doubt this unit is ticketed for Karachi and India. Maybe I can make Dan think twice on that dash to Karachi.

KB did find DD ISAAC SWEERS and severely damage (maybe sink) it off Trivandrum. A very curious spot for a single DD, except the same INTEL CHECk shows that unit appeared at Colombo today; inconveniently for Dan!

Luzon: Nothing to report here, other than troop movements. We bomb Bataan everyday (where I seem to get more supply hits than bombing Clark), and I have reduced the covering force to a mish-mash of Garrison Bdes and other units. The 4th Division is withdrawing, and being sent to India.

I am dying to know what Dan's supply situation is there, but no way of knowing until the AA guns go silent, at which point I know the answer is ZERO.

[Alfred]

Q-Ball,

Back in classical WITP, a co-ordinated paradrop and sea landing onthe same turn, effectively reduced the defenders AV. If you have any paras available (you wouldn't have to even drop an entire para unit, just a few squads would suffice), dropping them on Chittagong simultaneously with your sea landing might pay off handsomely.

Alfred

[John 3rd]

Hey Sir. I have been reading both AARs with great interest and find this highly entertaining to read you two side-by-side. Imagine many readers could have said the same thing in Dan and I's long-running AAR over in WitP.

What ARE your plans in the Kuriles? Are simply going to build them up or will you grab some of western Aleutians?

With all the work I've done with Reluctant Admiral I am not sure of the changes within Scenario Two. Questions:

1. Do you get additional CVs and, if so, when and what?
2. What are the major aircraft changes? You are in mid-to-late March so you have to be thinking Tony/Tojo. Do they come in at a different time? What about Zero variants?
3. I know that, unlike RA, you get a TON of starting supply and fuel. What is your state there right now?

Sorry for stupid questions if you've answered these already!

[JohnDillworth]

Hey Sir. I have been reading both AARs with great interest and find this highly entertaining to read you two side-by-side. Imagine many readers could have said the same thing in Dan and I's long-running AAR over in WitP.

I too enjoy reading both sides of this. Unfourtunetly, I don't trust myself not to say anything stupid so I have to refrain from commenting most of the time (my wife says my brain has no on-deck circle, I just get up there, open my mouth, and start swinging for the fences). Keep up the good work. This is the first full tilt invasion of India I have seen and it is certainly providing food for thought. I submit India is a heavy lift in scenario #1, but with 2 there seems to be some possibilities. No chance of a Russian winter here so CR should have his hands full!