Taming the Bear - Rader (J) vs. jzanes (A). A jzanes-free zone.

[rader]

November 29-December 6, 1942.

The Second Battle of Borzya has ended in Japanese victory. After some of the remaining Russian armoured units pulled out, the Russians in the city were finally put to rout:

Ground combat at Borzya (106,26)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 141132 troops, 1819 guns, 926 vehicles, Assault Value = 4043

Defending force 30646 troops, 1193 guns, 1414 vehicles, Assault Value = 1009

Japanese adjusted assault: 1361

Allied adjusted defense: 551

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Borzya !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3115 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 195 disabled
Non Combat: 25 destroyed, 115 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 29 disabled
Vehicles lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
6877 casualties reported
Squads: 483 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 1432 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 113 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 729 (719 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Vehicles lost 989 (989 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 20


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
48th Division
10th Division
9th
20th Engineer Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
24th Division
18th Division
12th Division
4th Engineer Co
27th Division
38th Division
1st Mobile Engineer Regiment
8th Division
90th Infantry Regiment
4th Division
33rd Division
55th Engineer Regiment
34th Division
2nd Mobile Engineer Regiment
49th Field AA Battalion
Tonei Hvy Gun Regiment
15th AA Regiment
6th Air Defense AA Regiment
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
50th Field AA Battalion
20th Army
11th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
6th Army
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
2nd Mobile AA Battalion
5th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
9th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
7th Air Defense AA Regiment
5th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Air Defense AA Battalion
4th Air Defense AA Regiment
Kwantung Army
5th Air Defense AA Regiment
1st Air Defense AA Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
26th Air Defense AA Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Mobile Field Artillery Regiment
15th Army
3rd Air Defense AA Regiment
7th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
12th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Mobile Field Artillery Regiment
12th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion

Defending units:
103rd Rifle Division
39th Rifle Brigade
205th Rifle Division
36th Motor Rifle Division
57th Motor Rifle Division
3rd Mongolian Field Artillery Regiment
216th Howitzer Regiment
413th Howitzer Regiment
39th Guards Mortar Regiment
178th Mortar Regiment
629th Cannon Regiment
262nd/264th PVO AA Battalion
17th Army
624th Cannon Regiment
185th Cannon Regiment
32nd Guards Mortar Regiment
1141st Cannon Regiment
190th/398th PVO AA Battalion
106th/1146th How. Regiment
60th Guards Mortar Regiment

[rader]

Now the Russians are falling back on the bad terrain, and pulling out of the Eastern region along the trans-Siberian railway. The Japanese are in hot pursuit and have already routed a division in the area. Our goal is to cut off some of these remaining units, and then press on to the rail junction with the utmost speed.

[bklooste]

Non Combat: 1432 destroyed,
Engineers: 113 destroyed,
Guns lost 729 (719 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Vehicles lost 989 (989 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Pretty huge losses their.

[rader]

December 6-12, 1942.

It's hard to believe it's almost a year into the war! There hasn't been so much as a peep from the Western Allies for months - which worries me a lot more than if they were making noise!). He's got to be thinking about preparing to attack somewhere. Japanese perimeter forces prepare for the brewing battles, while the Kwangtung army continues to pressure the Russians.

The Vladivostock pocket has been without outisde contact for over 6 months now. Intelligence confirms that they are desperately short of supplies. Yet they continue to probe our cordon as we continue to focus our main effort against the upper trans-Siberian railway.

The Japanese drive has isolated the remaining Russians East of the rail junction. We estimate that around 15,000 Russian troops (rearguards and the like) are still trapped here and will be squeezed between the Japanese forces.

The main Japanese army is driving around the right flank of the Russian MLR, but now that he is entrenched in the rought terrain, progress will be slow going and I doubt we can reach Chita. It would be so nice if we could, but I think it's just a bridge too far. Nevertheless, we will pursue him into the rough terrain to build up a defensive line and probe for weaknesses.

The main action these days seems to be in the West. Most of the Japanese armor committed to the drive on Borzya have now redeployed in a race across Mongolia. At least 2 Russian tank division equivalents plus a spattering of Mongolian cavalry are still operating in the region and are now attempting to break out from another encirclement. Japanese forces from China are also initiating a drive on Ulan Bator to support this action. A re-evaluation by a group of Japanese junior logistics officers has revealed that it may be possible to support an army along the road to this city. Such a move, if made in force, might threaten the flank of the Russian army around Chita.

Meanwhile, news from the Germans is grim. The 6th army plus elements of the 4th panzer army are now trapped in Stalingrad. But there is yet hope; a drive by Marshall Erich von Manstein is planned to relieve the pocket. Banzai!

[rader]

December 16-28, 1942.

Japanese forces have reached the rail junction south of Chita. Actually 2 divisions arrived ahead of the main army and got a bit roughed up:

Ground combat at 106,23
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 57682 troops, 1438 guns, 1147 vehicles, Assault Value = 2708
Defending force 28497 troops, 246 guns, 102 vehicles, Assault Value = 904
Allied adjusted assault: 1223
Japanese adjusted defense: 747
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3120 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 145 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 198 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
Guns lost 3 (0 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (0 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2443 casualties reported
Squads: 38 destroyed, 113 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 58 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 38 disabled
Guns lost 23 (2 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Vehicles lost 97 (2 destroyed, 95 disabled)

Still, it could have been worse, and help had arrived by the next turn.

We're closing on the rail junction from all directions. Once entrenched there, what is the next move? I doubt we'll be able to dislodge the Russians from that position, although I probably will probe for a way around.

The most likely outcome is that we'll try to establish a MLR right in front of the Russians in the rough terrain. Being at the rail junction should allow us to hold it for a very long time. The aim would be to clean up pockets of resistance behind the lines (the Vladivostok pocket still holds out...), establish a firm line in front of Chita that will require a minimum of Japanese defenders, and start pulling out the unrestricted troops for work elsewhere in the Pacific.

In the West, we are still in the process of trying to prevent the mobile Russian units from escaping. We are even heading up the road to Ulan Bator, and may try to take this city (although recon indicates that Russian reinforcements are being transfered there from the main front).

Most likely, we won't take - or at least make no attempt to hold - Ulan Bator. But we will attempt to eliminate as many of the remaining Russian mobile units as we can while we build up an advanced base at Wuteh (the dot just East of the "Gobi Desert" text on the map. At least there in the rough terrain, we ought to be able to have a chance to hold.

[rader]

December 28 1942-January 5, 1943.

1942 is over! This is the foray into 1943 for myself or opponent (we've both had games got to just past mid-1942 in WITP).

The last few turns have been relatively quiet. The Wasp took a submarine torpedo near New Zealand (we've been having some sync issues due to the patch upgrade, and apparently this didn't show up in his replay). Near Chita, the Russians have given up the rail junction. This might spell the end of the Japanese main offensive. We've got a lot of cleaning up to do behinf the lines, and the drive on Ulan Bator is heating up (see map). Several Russian units, including an ARM division are still trying to fight their way out but are being incessently harrased from the air.

After these offensives peter out, we're probably going to pull the unrestricted units back for service elsewhere.

[rader]

With the start of the new year, let's take a look at the perimeter (see map). We've been busily fortifying the main perimeter, and have some light delaying forces in a few outer regions, but don't plan to mount a significant defense of these areas. Japanese air, land, and naval units wait in key locations for any sign of allied incursions, but throughout the balance of 1942, the allies remained decidedly passive. The questions before us are now:

1.) will the new year immediately spurn allied action, or is he waiting for a delivery of Essexes & Hellcats in order to have overwhelming power before he strikes?

AND

2.) where will he strike first?

My guess is either an overland drive into Burma or an attack on the DEI, because these would allow maximums ground/land based air support, but I'm trying to stay prepared for other possibilities as well.

Stay tuned...

[rader]

January 5-17, 1943.

January 1943 has thus far been the quietest month of the war. The Japanese drive on Ular Bator is stalled outside the city, where around 50,000 Japanese face equal numbers of Russians. The Japanese army seems unlikely to break the deadlock here any time soon.

The main front has stabilized in the rough terrain in front of Chita. Japanese forces are entrenching here and aim to hold this line indefinitely.

The only other news has been some air sparring in China and Burma, where each side has been drawing a steady stream of air attrition. Still waiting to see where the Allies will strike...

[rader]

January 18-February 24, 1943.

It's been a relatively quiet month. After a couple of failed first assaults, we're settling in for a siege to wear down the Vladivostock pocket using artillery and air. Without supplies, they should eventually fall.

The Allies have made a few moves this month, gobbling up little bits of the undefended part of the perimeter (see map). I think they are waiting for the Essexes and Hellcats to really start making hay against fortified positions. But they might be redeploying to some new target ~ KB is ready to react.

Then tension is slowly building, stay tuned...

[FatR]

What is your economical situation? Did invasion of USSR influence it negatively, or can your new territories compensate the expenditure of armaments, planes and supplies?

[rader]

ORIGINAL: FatR

What is your economical situation? Did invasion of USSR influence it negatively, or can your new territories compensate the expenditure of armaments, planes and supplies?

Well, it took a lot of supplies to have the whole Kwangtung army actively campaigning, and I did some pretty heavy expansions, so my supplies around summer 1942 were scrapping the bottom of the barrel. They are starting to recover, but let's just say I'm not exactly swimming in supplies. Especially because I've been entrenching/expanding heavily all over the perimeter.

Other than supplies, I would say the invasion of the USSR has had a minimal effect on my economy.

I'm getting 80 oil now from Sakhalin, which is nice and close to Japan. I'm getting a couple hundred resources on the mainland, with a couple hundred more to come with the fall of the Vladivostock region, although these are probably not needed. I *really* won't have to bring any resources from the DEI, but I probably don't have to anyway.

Heavy industry did crash (with the rapid expansions) around October 1942, but I shut off some armament and it seems ok for now (slowly climbing). Not sure what's "normal", but armaments seem ok for now too, even after mostly being turned off.

Aircraft & engine production is through the roof, and has been largely shut down for want of action. The allies just aren't fighting. He must be building up substantial pools too, but what am I going to do with almost 600 Vals now that I've got Judys in numbers? Late war kamikazes? Also have almost 400 Oscar Ic, which are have been superceded by IIas, and soon IIbs.

Ship production is largely unexpanded, but I did make some significany changes in priorities.

Overall, the Russian adventure has probably been a mild drain on my economy, and there is significant danger that I will have to continue to fight the ever-strengthening Russians in the coming months and years. But the casualties inflicted and the strong positions I've gained, I think I have significantly blunted the dagger pointed at the heart of Japan. If I manage to survive past August 1945, I think I will look back on the Russian campaign as a resounding success.

I will say though that I think a Russian campaign might be slightly broken. There was some argument over the sailing up the river thing at the start, and my opponent was very nice in letting me proceed with the invasion (I didn't know if it would let me or not, and I was prepared to run the guns to do it ~ but it turned out that they didn't actually fire in the event). But I think this actually had little impact on the campaign, and this move was actually a mistake. What did and would have a HUGE impact on the campaign is the ability of the Japanese to maneuver before the Russians can react. This means they can set up on the border of the trans-Siberian rail line, and walk across to cut the rail on the same turn they activate the Bear. You need to cut two hexes so that they can't link up and walk through (see map). But if you do this exactly as the war begins, the Russians below the cut rail line (around 60% of all Russian units) have essentially zero chance of escape, and will all eventually (probably) die.

Now is this historical? Maybe... This is of course what the Japanese would have tried to do (and had planned to do). Maybe they would have succeeded, maybe not. But it just wouldn't have been this easy. And even if they had, the Russians would have probably been able to throw more weight against the Japanese later on, whereas here their OOB is restricted.

[rader]

Here's the industry pool. Comparison with "typical" numbers for Feb 1943 would be much appreciated. Not sure what's considered healthy.

[rader]

And the aircraft pool. Flush with (now) obsolete aircraft/ [8|]

[FatR]

I believe your oil/fuel and supply situations are pretty dangerous. Is your LI fully loaded everywhere?

As about planes, I, personally, think, that turning off the production when you have 50-100 (depending on the importance of the type and intensity of the battles) in the pool is the way to go early in the war.

[rader]

ORIGINAL: FatR

I believe your oil/fuel and supply situations are pretty dangerous. Is your LI fully loaded everywhere?

As about planes, I, personally, think, that turning off the production when you have 50-100 (depending on the importance of the type and intensity of the battles) in the pool is the way to go early in the war.

Well, there isn't much I can do about it. I'm shipping as much fuel/oil as I can. Appart from Burma, most fuel/oil was taken intact or has been repaired so I'm pretty much at full capacity. I still have all my LI on because I really need the supplies, but I'm not really in trouble for resources.

You're probably right about shutting off the a/c -- I've started doing that, but at the start I though I might need them. And the D4Y Judy arrived in Decemeber 1942 (5 months early), which I hadn't counted on, so way overproduced Vals.

[rader]

February 25-April 13, 1943.

It's been very quiet these last months. The allies have barely budged, and I have no idea what they are up to. Well, that's not quite true... They have seized back most of Northern Australia (against little opposition, merely a couple unit fragments). We continue to pound Darwin daily, and we have contested the building up of Broome with subs and daily air raids. We saw our first A6M3a vs. Corsair clash, and surprisingly, the Zeros did pretty well (2 zeros lost to 5-6 Corsairs). Mind you, this was my "flying circus" elite unit. No pilots with air/def skill under 70 are allowed in, and it hosts many of my naval aces. Some of the other air skirmishes over Broome went worse. He got lucky a couple time and downed a number of Hellens. Overally, probably 50 a/c lost on each side since he took Broome.

We're still digging the perimiter defenses, but all the interlocking airfields in the area are developing strong forts (3+, and 5+ in most cases), and have generally have 400+ AV dug in.

This offers the best supported avenue of advance, and a very dangerous one at that, so we are watching it closely. However, his carriers disapeared over a month ago, and they could reapear almost anywhere from the Kuriles to Bay of Bengal. I'm sort of expecting an attack on New Caledonia or the Marshalls, but I can't afford to defend them as well as the DEI and Kuriles. The Pacific offers only a long, slow road to Japan and the oil; the DEI is the heart of the empire (with Japan being the head and the Philipines the neck in this analogy).

My best guess is he's going to wait until either 1) he has enough Hellcats to fill out his CVs (they just arrived this month and he could probably do that by mid-May), or 2) if he's really cautious, he's going to wait until for a few Essexes so that he has (almost) unchallengable CV strength (probably around autumn 1943).

Any guesses where and when he'll strike?

[rader]

Meanwhile, the seize of Vladivostok drags on...

It's now been about ten and a half months since the cut of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, and maybe 4-5 months since the pocket has been nearly completely out of supplies. Yet, they continue to resist. A couple of deliberate attacks came off with very high losses against high fort levels. However, daily air and artillery bombardment, in addition to the lack of supplies, does seem to be slowly wearing him down. I've noted that the AA defenses no longer seem to be shooting back.

I have now transfered the unrestricted forces away to garison duty on the perimeter, but a large contingent of the Kwangtung army is keeping him bottled up. We've been whittling away at the fortresses around the pocket to better get supply in for the final assault. These things each take about a month to kill. Once we get rid of the last fort, the plan is to soften the troops up a bit longer and then aim to start mopping up operations in earnest by late summer. We've been maintaining strong forces in the Kuriles so he dosen't get any thoughts about trying to bring in supply.

[FatR]

The supply is not gone until AAA stops shooting at incoming air raids. The defending player cannot stand down AA guns, so AA fire is both a drain on supply and good indicator of units no longer having any.

[rader]

April 13-May 7, 1943.

It's still quiet, and there isn't much new to report.

The siege of Vlad drags on into its 12th month (~6 months with no supply). The Russians continue to resist, with an estimated 80+ units in the pocket. Their assault value does seem to be falling, and they abandoned Ryblov after a pitched battle ~ several Japanese deliberate assaults that were bloody for both sides but especially the Japanese. However, most of the actual losses were Manchurian squads. These don't seem to hold up to actual battle very well. I think the soldiers are just disapearing into the countryside. Probably it's better of that way both for them and the Japanese [:)].

We are starting to hem them in, we aim to keep up the pressure. We need to liquidate the pocket before the Allies can even think of strying to sneak in supply by sea. This means that the Kuriles are considered an absolute top priority for defense, and we're heavily garisonning and building up Paramushiro, Onekota, and Shimushiro, with some other bases in supporting roles. Unfortunately, there is no plan to assault Petropavlovsk - loss estimates of invasioncraft are extermely high against its CD guns based on our experience with Magadan. Hopefully it's sufficiently dominated by Paramushiro and Onekotan that it won't become a long-term thorn in our side. But the allies are steadily advancing up the Aleutians, and are now firmly lodged at Kiska. We still lightly hold Attu, but it's basically undefended.

In Northern Australia, Broome is now building up rapidly. I don't think we want to lose the pilots contesting the Allied buildup in Northern Australia, but we are building up a solid line across the sea from Java to Timor in addition to reserves of ships, troops, and aircraft. Any Allied move into the DEI will be met with a concerted counterattack.

[rader]

Just about the only recent action was a major bombing raid on Luganville in the New Hebrides. Those Liberators are awesome planes. He caught most of our fighters training and did about 30 damage to the runway and airfield. On the second day, our Tojos rose to meet them, but suffered badly for it. The unarmored Tojos were badly torn up, with only damaged Liberators to show for it. A few are reported to have gone missing on the way home at least.

Japanses intel is trying to determine if this is the vanguard of an allied assault on the New Hebrides and New Caledonia, a feint to draw in Japanese forces, or merely a raid of opportunity. We can't afford to take chances, so we are calling in some additional air groups and placing the forces in the sector on high alert. Other reinforcements are standing by.