Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

I obsess over Midway because in the hands of a gifted Japanese player it can be a real bear to recapture early in the game. With good, long-range patrols, the Japanese player gets enough warning to commit the KB and make recapturing the island difficult or impossible or very expensive for quite some time. In Allied hands, Midway basically gives the Allies a vast "safe zone" while also reminding the Japanese player that Marcus and Wake are not entirely secure. But in Japanese hands there is little threat further west and a great deal of the mid-Pacific is under threat.

I agree that the Japanese player can usually take Midway if he wants it, but here we have a situation where Brad ignored it due to higher priorities. So now I need to turn the island into a real bear.

[FatR]

Midway is also useful for Allies as a forward sub base. It is closer to sealanes from SRA than Aleutians. Without Midway you can almost forget about maintaining continous patrols around Home Islands. Or at least they will have much less time on position.

[Canoerebel]

4/16/42 to 4/18/42

India: Chittagong falls on the 17th, with the defenders taking the worst possible route of retreat (into the jungle rather than into clear terrain where they could reach friendly lines in a few weeks rather than a few years). Other than that it's been fairly quiet as Brad seems to be concentrating on landing troops at Chittagong and near Vizagapetum. The KB remains parked at Colombo while supply TFs make the run from Abadan to Karachi. Vildebeasts scored some hits on two xAK at Chittagong on the 16th, which surprised everybody.

Oz: I paid political points to buy the final of the three 40th Division regiments. It loaded aboard transports and is on the way to Oz. Upon arrival, the Allies will have two American divisions present - 41st at Sydney and 40th divided between Perth and Geraldton.

SoPac: Artillery and CD landed at Nadi; a Marine regiment is about four days away; and Army battalion is about two weeks away. A Marine CD and an Army battalion are on the way to Canton Island.

CenPac: A Marine CD is on the way to Midway, and I'm rounding up transports to retrieve the Midway base force (not sure where it will go yet - possibly the Aleutians).

NoPac: Regular reinforcement movements continue, the most important of which is a big CD unit set to arrive at Attu Island in two or three days.

Strategic Assessment: I'm still not positive what Brad's overall objective is in India. He has so many troops committed that the entire subcontinent would seem the likely target. Yet, were he really intent on going for the jugular, he should have landed somewhere like Goa or Surat on the west coast. I just dunno.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

On Midway, in my PBM I reinforced with 1 or 2 (whatever would fit at the time) of the small USMC units (para & raider). The base force and defense battalion both grew substantially over time, raising the AV. The defense Bn is particularly nice because it over-strengths on USMC squads and has those nice 4 x 7" guns that were present on Midway IRL.

Against the AI, I also have that USMC unit with the CD guns. However, unlike CR, I just feel naked without some fighter cover. Patrol supported by AVP is nice, but I want some Wildcats overhead. And that means Aviation support, and that eats up the manpower limit budget. There's no good rock-paper-scissors solution with a 6000-man limit. I think it's to each player's tastes how he spends those 6000.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I obsess over Midway because in the hands of a gifted Japanese player it can be a real bear to recapture early in the game. With good, long-range patrols, the Japanese player gets enough warning to commit the KB and make recapturing the island difficult or impossible or very expensive for quite some time. In Allied hands, Midway basically gives the Allies a vast "safe zone" while also reminding the Japanese player that Marcus and Wake are not entirely secure. But in Japanese hands there is little threat further west and a great deal of the mid-Pacific is under threat.

I agree that the Japanese player can usually take Midway if he wants it, but here we have a situation where Brad ignored it due to higher priorities. So now I need to turn the island into a real bear.

Concur Dan. I grabbed it early in my current game so I can use it for the exact reasons you state. I plan to stack it to about 5,500 men and NO MORE! Don't want to deal with more supply issues if at all possible.

[Cribtop]

Canoe - I really can't figure what the enemy is up to either. Surely there is another shoe to drop as unco-ordinated attacks aren't like Q. Still, at this point he really can't get behind you now that the UK Div is in position. Just make sure you don't get cut off at Calcutta and you should be fine.

[princep01]

I don't read the "OTHER GUY'S" AAR, but it is pretty obvious what is going on. He's going to conquer India and win an AUTO victory. He has landed in multiple locations in division+ strength estimating that you do not have the strength in any of these areas (or the inclination) to fight and defeat him in detail. He will consolidate around the bases he has captured, bring in his air and proceed to attack in converging directions while you protect Karachi and points off map. Good luck stopping him once he gets his air house in order and lands sufficient supply to proceed....and that will not be long.

I am aware this is a Scen 2 game and maybe the Japanese are just unstoppable, but I feel like I am Abe Lincoln watching General McClellan "prepare" the Army of the Potomac forever, and ever and ever. I keep thinking what damage those CVs could have done astride the IJNs line of communication to Ceylon while KB was known to be well north on the east side of India. In my view that was an opportunity lost.

Give me Grant.....As Lincoln said, I cannot fire this man...he fights!.

[JeffroK]

Dan,

I dont know what your Sub position is, and if any have effective torps.

But all of that shipping that went West has to return and through some defined choke points.

Can you get anything in place to snipe at the returning fleets. Even scaring QBall into diversions slows him down.

[Cribtop]

In answer to princip01, I hear you, but Canoe seems to think that neither Bombay, Madras nor Karachi can be taken with existing IJA strength. Calcutta MAY fall if I am reading him correctly. Thus, unless more landing are afoot (and that is the million dollar question), I don't know that auto-victory is really in the cards yet. That said, I would like to hear what Canoerebel thinks on this point.

[princep01]

Crib, there is little doubt in my mind that this set of landings is the base grabbing phase. The second "Buildup" wave is likely in progress now. That is why I urged the good Admiral to get his CVs across the sea LOC sometiem back and hit that second wave while KB was messing around off eastern India. It is too late now. I'm betting dollars to donuts that the second wave is starting to mount up and move. Once those reinforcements land, the "BIG PUSH" will start. The IJA troops are better, more numerous and better supported than the Br/Indians at this stage. I don't think the Allies are going to survive this. The good admiral may fight his war as he wishes, but this is a dangerous invasion and his lack of response on the sea or in other portions of the theater are going to result in an AUTO victory for Japan.

[John 3rd]

I concur with some of the above thinking, however, I side with Dan in thinking India cannot be taken. As soon as 'the line' is crossed and all those reinforcements get triggered life will be more exciting. Add to this the troops that just snuck in and Dan is in pretty good shape.

My main thought is to ATTACK elsewhere. Pull the CVs back into the Pacific and raise some hell! Since Dan is a Southerner those Lincoln--McClellan--Grant comments won't work. I'd say you need a little STONEWALL action right now!

[JeffroK]

Stonewall of the Valley or of the Seven Days?

I'd settle for a bit of Forrest!.

As mentioned earlier, CV at Cape Town only threatens the IO, and now have very few bases to use after any foray. Any transfer to Panama takes about 20 days at normal speed, I haven't done the Falklands/Cape/Tahiti route yet.

Whereas "being seen" in the Pacific, even some CVE supporting the Aleutian occupation will make QBall wonder what else is lurking.

I'm also not a fan if the IJA attack is avoiding the trigger hex/hexes.

[Cribtop]

My problem is that I don't have a feel for how many IJA Divs remain uncommitted as I have not played Scen 2. If Q still has three or four Div equivalents out there to bring to the party, he can take all India up to the line. If that gives auto-victory then Canoe has to try some fink.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the comments and suggestions, guys. I would caution that anybody reading both AARs had better refrain from commenting in either. Sometimes it's possible to pick up intel by reading between the lines. Nothing of that sort has happened yet, mainly because I'm still trying to figure out what's going on. I always try to keep in mind that any suspicions I develop could be dead wrong.

To address some of the comments and suggestions made:

1) Scenario Two gives Japan more to play with, but by no means does it turn Japan into an insta-auto-victory threat. I think most expereinced Allied players would have no problem avoiding auto-victiory even in Scenario Two.

2) I am pushng the envelop a bit, here, by not counterattacking. I'm not sure yet this is the best way to fight, or even a good way of fighting, but it's the route I've chosen. I'll certainly learn alot about how much the Allies can bend and can use that in future games.

3) I've been through this before. In my WitP game vs. John III, he conquered all of Oz except Sydney and Melbourne. It was really ugly and things were looking very bleak. But the Allies came back and did quite well in that game. AE Scenario Two isn't WitP, so that doesn't mean the same thing will happen in this game. I'm just sayin' I've been pushed to the edge before, so waging a war under these circumstances isn't a new experience.

4) I enjoy writing AARs as much as I do playing the game, but I also know that very few people have the time to follow carefully and actually keep tabs on much of the information conveyed. So I'd be amazed if anybody would remember things I wrote back near the start of this AAR. If, somehow, you do, you'll recall that the Allied plan from day one has been to allow Japan to invade Oz or India and to push quite far. I do NOT want to lose either the continent or the sub-continent, but I can use any penetration short of total defeat to my advantage later in the game.

5) I think Brad's highest priority from the outset was to do something to force me to commit my carriers to a naval battle. Brad knows that his chances of victory in a '42 carrier battle are pretty high, and that a decisive carrier battle defeat for the Allies is a big step towards Japanese auto-victory. It would also free up Japan to advance all over the map. I'm not giving him the carrier battle. The total invisibility (force-in-being) of the Allied carrier has had a great and largely unexpected dividend - it seems to have completely frozen Japan in the Pacific. Instead of fighting a defensive war with my troops in retreat, the Allies have moved forward to occupy or strengthen bases that I would have expected to fall long before now: Fiji, Canton Island, Midway, and the western Aleutians. I still exepct a fight for Midway, or quite possibly Fiji, when the KB returns to the Pacific, but no longer are they auto-conquests for Japan.

6) The one thing I cannot measure with any certainty is Brad's state of mind. I would think the absence of the Allied carriers plus the steady ticking of the clock as days and weeks pass has got to be messing with his mind somewhat. In addition to protecting his forces in India, he has to look to Oz, the DEI, New Caledonia, CenPac, and NoPac. What decisions might he make that unltimately hurt his cause? I have no idea, but the possibility that he will do something "wrong" increases as time passes. Also, I think by the time he turns his attention back to the Pacific, he will be thinking that the Allies have had time to seriously strengthen key bases. For instance, I don't think he'll consider attacking New Zealand, which is still completely vulnerable.

7) As for John III's comment, I think the most effective way of "raising hell" with Japan in the Pacific is to not show my carriers, so that Brad is looking for them everywhere instead of knowing precisely where they are. [Somebody mentioned CVEs - I don't have any yet, and, even if I did, showing them wouldn't accomplish anything strategic anyhow.]

8) Brad still has a good six or so IJA divisions uncommitted in theater. He can still land at Goa or Surat and give me fits. He won't isolate the Calcutta troops, as the bases to the rear are already garrisoned (with more troops on the way) to guard against para-assault. I don't think anything short of total conquest of India would give Brad enought points for an auto victory and possibly not even then. However, if I suffered a carrier defeat on top of trouble in India, I would be sweating things. At the moment, I'm worried, but I'm not perspiring.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

Reading your, as usual, well-written AAR. Q-ball's too.

My limited posting here is due to maintenance of OPSEC for both of your AARs. I just wanted to say thanks for being such a diligent and thoughtful AAR producer. Many people learn from your posted experiences...

ETA: I note in your #6 above that you have omitted the potential Allied threat to the IJ western flank at Burma. In your mind, does Brad's effort in India preclude any threat that you can raise to Burma for the forseeable future?

[crsutton]

Canoe is spot on here. I think you guys need a visual aid

The following four posts will show you AFBs how to defeat Japan in Scen #2 [;)]

1942-Rope a Dope

[crsutton]

1943-Float like a butterfly

[crsutton]

1944-Sting like a bee.

[crsutton]

1945-Down for the count.

[Chickenboy]

Get too brash and fall down...